DFS Strategy

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in one of the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Russell Wilson (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)

Pivot: DK Metcalf (DK $17,100, FD $14,000)

Contrarian #1: Carson Wentz (DK $15,600, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Miles Sanders (DK $13,800, FD $13,500)

DK Punts: Seahawks DST ($5,700) or Jalen Reagor ($8,700)

DK Contrarian Punt: Alshon Jeffrey ($2,400)

We’ve got to love Russell Wilson in this game, and he’ll likely be the chalk. The Seahawks should be able to roll out their usual offensively balanced approach in this game, as they’re back to full capacity with their stable of RBs – grinder Chris Carson is back in action and leads the way – and no major injuries to report among their top two WRs. They will be missing TE Greg Olsen, but I expect to see Wilson picking his spots with efficiency against the Eagles secondary.

As with the rest of the league, the Eagles don’t have anyone who can contain the relatively matchup-proof DK Metcalf, and with the athletic receiver seeing just nine targets over the past two weeks, I expect him to have a big game and around 7-10 targets. Since the Eagles do have a strong run defense, they’ll likely run some play action with Carson to get the ball in the hands of Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and TE Will Dissly, who might notch a couple extra looks in this one.

I’m plenty interested in using the Seahawks DST at captain if it gets me Wilson, one of the big two Seahawks WRs and Carson, and there’s already a viable roster construction for large-field GPPs that I’m envisioning which utilizes a Carson Wentz meltdown/replacement with Jalen Hurts. The Seahawks could force him right out of the game with constant pressure, as the Eagles have yielded a league-high 40 sacks this season through 10 games.

If Wentz is successful in avoiding pressure, it’ll be because their defense will help keep the game close and they give plenty of opportunities to Miles Sanders. The Seahawks defense is about league average against the run, but they looked like a much-improved unit in their game against the Cards. WRs Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham probably have the most upside in this matchup, but I’m sprinkling in plenty of Dallas Goedert and will have a few shares of embattled and oft-injured wideout Alshon Jeffrey, who could see more snaps in this matchup.

Week 12 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use more Eagles than Seahawks. Unless something goes terribly wrong and the Eagles defense flips the script, we’re looking at a max of two or three lineups per ten where you could go 3/3 (maybe two) or 4-2 (1/10 at most) in favor of Philly.

DO: Get a little creative with the Eagles offensive performers you use. There’s been talk of replacing Wentz if he struggles, and this is exactly the type of game and DSFS format you could see him put together a second half worthy of inclusion.

DON’T: Fiddle around too much with the non-Chris Carson Seahawks backs, aside from possibly Carlos Hyde. The price on Hyde is steep because of last week’s performance, but we have every indication Carson will lead the backfield in touches this week.  A few shares are okay, but don’t go overboard.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Russell Wilson
2. DK Metcalf
3. Chris Carson
4. Tyler Lockett
5. Carson Wentz
6. Miles Sanders
7. Jalen Reagor
8. Travis Fulgham
9. Dallas Goedert
10. Seahawks DST
11. Will Dissly
12. Greg Ward
13. Jason Myers
14. Boston Scott
15. Carlos Hyde
16. Freddie Swain (questionable)
17. Alshon Jeffrey
18. Jake Elliott
19. Jalen Hurts
20. Jacob Hollister
21. Eagles DST
22. Richard Rodgers