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Corales Puntacana Championship Picks and Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

If your WGC Matchplay bracket is already looking on shaky ground after Day 1, what better excuse to indulge than a deep dive into the alternative event this week! We just had our 2nd big winner in March, with both Moore and Kitayama collecting at huge prices. Let’s bag another one with our Corales Puntacana Championship picks.

Course Analysis & Weather

Corales Puntaca Championship picks played at the stunning Corales Golf Club

If you do have the opportunity to find TV coverage for this event, I highly recommend a watch. Undeniably, the Corales Golf Course in Punta Cana is a stunning host. As these holes snake their way hugging close to the cliffs and Atlantic Ocean, you would be forgiven for thinking driving accuracy is imperative here. The metrics tell a different story for our Corales Puntacana Championship picks.

Although a big miss on the wrong side of the hole will result in large penalties, this can usually be avoided. The rough is a benign 2 inches and rather sparse, providing little penalty when found. Obviously, at a 7,670 yard par-72 having a modicum of driving distance is an asset. However, this is further emphasised by the largely disproportionate number of approach shots coming in at over 200 yards. Driving distance and approach over 200+ yards play a key role in our Corales Puntacana Championship picks.

Greens are paspalum grass. Certainly, this sturdy oceanside grass is particular but generally quite slow. Putting will be imperative in what often turns into a birdie fest, although offset slight by the ease of these surfaces. Putting is weighted heavier than usual for our Corales Puntacana Championship picks model.

The wind is the main defense for this course. Moderate winds are forecast all week and should play some role. There, however, appears no weather edge with winds consistent all day Thursday and Friday.

You can find the latest weather forecast here.

Comp Courses for our Corales Puntacana Championship Picks

Although course history appears less correlated here than on other courses, I do want to read that in some context. Obviously, being a alternative event in the majority of years, the field for this event is rather transient. Consequently, it includes up and coming stars advancing from the Korn Ferry Tour to the other end of the spectrum, with older golfers in the twilights of their careers. Generally, those playing this event are either on their way up or down the PGA Tour rankings. This bears some consideration when making your Corales Puntacana Championship picks.

Other tropical and island courses have strong links here. Generally, this involves a combination of the resort style nature, exposed windy courses, and the unique paspalum greens. Significantly, Puerto Rico Open has numerous form lines and is likely the strongest guide. Vidanata Vallarta, host of the Mexico Open, provides another long driver friendly resort style course with many similarities. Further, I considered the Bermuda Championship in my analysis.

I do believe some of the Korn Ferry Tour courses will get missed by most pundits this week when making their Corales Puntacana Championship picks. It is worthy going back the last couple of years and consider golfers who have played well at these types of tracks at the same time of year. This includes the Bahamas Great Exuma Classic and Abaco Classic, the Panama Championship, and the Astara Golf Championship.

Corales Puntacana Championship Picks for Golf Betting

Suggested Staking

Thomas Detry – Your Corales Puntacana Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +2200 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 10 +330 Fanduel/Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +2200 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Ben Martin
2.5pts WIN +3000 Fanduel
2.5pts Top 10 +320 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +3000 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Chesson Hadley – Your Corales Puntacana Championship Picks Best Value
2pts WIN +6600 MGM
2pts Top 10 +550 Fanduel/Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +6600 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Vincent Norrman
1pt WIN +9500 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +7000 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +280 Draftkings

Augusto Nunez
1pt WIN +6600 MGM
1pt Top 10 +600 Fanduel
or 1pt E/W +9000 Unibet (with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +250 Bet365/+240 Draftkings

Trevor Werbylo – Your Corales Puntacana Championship Picks Favourite Longshot
1pt WIN +15000 MGM
1pt Top 10 +1100 Fanduel
or 1pt E/W +14000 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20 +490 Fanduel/+500 Bet365

Brandon Matthews
0.5pts WIN +25000 MGM
0.5pts Top 10 +1400 Fanduel
or 0.5pts E/W +25000 Unibet (with 6 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 40 +165 Draftkings/+180 Bet365

Thank you reading our 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

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WGC Matchplay Picks 2023: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
WGC Matchplay Picks

Another MASSIVE winner in Taylor Moore (+7000) for us last week at the Valspar Championship. As well as Wyndham Clark finishing 5th in our selections and the Kitayama win recently, that takes our PGA Tour return on investment to a mind-blowing +87% and up over +250 units. Of course, it is perhaps a tad unrealistic to expect that rate to continue for the remainder of the year. However, as typically we recommend about 25 units of spend, we now have a runway of over 10 weeks where we could lose every single bet and still be in profit. It all emphatically serves as a great indication for our WGC Matchplay picks.

Undoubtedly, it is a travesty that this event is even proposed to be cut by the PGA Tour. The WGC Matchplay offers one of perhaps just a half-dozen instances a year where we experience a different format. Yes, certainly matchplay is volatile. No, you won’t get all of the studs playing all the matches. Sure, the last day can leave some dead air with only two matches on the course.

Surely solving this should not be difficult. “The Match” has been a huge and well-watched event. Why not simply schedule 8 celebrities play the final two days? Seed the 8 celebrities based on their handicaps and have them play the Top 8 Saturday, with final 4 and consolation matches on the Sunday. You would draw additional audience and attention, as well as making winning “The Match” actually mean something. You’re welcome. Rant over, and onto our WGC Matchplay picks.

Course Analysis & Comp Courses

Austin Country Club has been the host of this event since 2016. This unique Pete Dye design course has some nuances, as often seen in his shaping. This somewhat explains the course specialist element we see recurring here. Perhaps it is more likely that Kevin Kisner is, in fact, not a matchplay specialist, but actually just very suited to this type of track.

In reality, Kisner plays a pretty key form line to other comp courses. Certainly, heavy correlation can be found between Austin and Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, and TPC River Highlands. All are positional courses, where accuracy reigns supreme over driving distance, and are key guides for our WGC Matchplay picks.

In addition to driving accuracy, putting should play a large part to success this week. Certainly, there will be opportunities in any matchplay tournament where you can make a long birdie putt to put pressure on your opponent. And, concurrently, the player who manages to make the 8 foot putt to square a hole can gain momentum. Moreover, approach play will be imperative. That can add additional to that pressure on your opponent.

Finally, I would caution on simply ruling out a player from your WGC Matchplay picks solely based on their prior history here. However, this is a volatile event. On average, you will see just 5 out of 16 top seeds emerge from their respective pools. It is worthy diving into some of those results deeper before ruling out a playing entirely.

For the latest weather, you can check here.

Optimal WGC Matchplay Picks for DFS & Brackets

Although this article primarily focuses on analysis and golf betting selections, I will add a note here on DFS strategy. This is one of the best weeks to play DFS. The reason is that a large percentage of brackets will be ruled out immediately before a ball has even been struck.

The below selections should NOT be built in a single DFS lineup. The optimal strategy is to have your four players reach the final four, with the other two selections having made it to the Top 8 before losing to another of your picks.

This can be summarized in three rules:

  1. Have a clear path to the final 4 for 4 picks. I.e. at least one golfer in each quarter of the bracket.
  2. Do not select two golfers from the same group.
  3. Do not select two golfers from adjacent groups.

You can find (and play!) in the WinDaily Sports Bracket Challenge here. The code is winbig.

Significantly, I have already seen quite a few lineups out there that are not optimal and are dead on arrival. Obviously, do not let your lineups become the rake for everyone else! Given that, if you need help please feel free to send me your lineup in the WinDaily Discord here. I’ll be happy to check the lineup is optimal for you.

WGC Matchplay Picks & Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Jon Rahm
2.5pts WIN +1100 Draftkings/MGM
2.5pts Top 4 +300 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +1100 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Patrick Cantlay – Your WGC Matchplay Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +2200
2.5pts Top 4 +500 Draftkings
or 2.5pts E/W +2200 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Jordan Spieth
2pts Win +2500 Draftkings/MGM
2pts Top 4 +650 Draftkings
or 2pts E/W +2200 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Cameron Young
2pts Win +3300 MGM
2pts Top 4 +650
or 2pts E/W +3300 Unibet (with 4 places 1/4 odds)

Keegan Bradley
1pt Win +7000 Draftkings
1pt Top 4 +1600 Draftkings
or 2pt E/W +6600 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)
And
2pts Win Group +300 MGM

Matt Kuchar
0.5pts Win +9000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 4 +1800
or 0.5pts E/W +9000 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)
And
3pts Win Group +350 MGM

Victor Perez – Your WGC Matchplay Picks Best Value
0.5pts Win +13000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 4 +2500 Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 Bet365 (with 4 places 1/4 odds)
And
1pt Top 8 +1100 Unibet
And
2pts Win Group +450 Fanduel

Thank you reading our 2023 WGC Matchplay picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

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DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for the The Valspar

cdenny99@hotmail.com
written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The Valspar DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections at Copperhead. This is the final tour stop in Florida this year. The Valspar is well known for traps, it’s called the snake pit. Three things that golfers must excel in are ball striking, the short game and putting on Bermuda. The Valspar DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are designed to give you the leverage, value and pivots to help you rocket up the leaderboard. It is designed to position yourself for a takedown.

Recent Results

Last week we put out 2 Frisky Biscuit plays in Discord Wednesday night. They both made the cut and brought value. It’s a tremendous help for making the weekend with two extra days of scoring. It also lets you leap the field with the low ownership and to get another stud golfer up top. On Saturday and Sunday we put out Ben Griffin and Ryan Fox for Showdown. With the volatility of the Players course they both played under par and brought great value and leverage.

We also picked Scottie Scheffler as the winner in our weekly picks below the ownership table. Tyrrell Hatton was our second pick. We hit the daily double again. This week brings our current record to 37-7 for a 6K salaried golfer under 5% ownership that makes the cut. Win Daily Sports loves to excel at the incredibly difficult, we also enjoy doing it over and over week after week.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “Green” for a free test drive to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. It’s only 5.99 a week, way less than a cup of coffee a day to subscribe and get this amazing access.

The Course – The Field

This tourney isn’t an elevated event yet it’s much stronger than the Honda was. With The Players just a short trip up the road, 5 of the top 20 and 10 of the top fifty players are teeing it up this week. JT was a add for the tourney and he will be the odds on favorite. Expect Jordan Spieth to be right behind.

Whether to trust the Weather

At present the weather is calling for early Thursday winds that go calm at 2:00-3:00 EST in the afternoon. Friday afternoon is calling for stronger winds so the Thursday PM/Friday am wave looks best. Check in with the Win Daily Sports Discord tonight for updates.

Targets and Traps

We did a trial run of Ownership Monday to see if it would be feasible to get out an early ownership report to compare with this ending report. With only 1% of the DK field putting teams into contests early we ended up with Victor Perez and Joel Dahmen at over 30% each, and JT and Spieth weren’t even in the top 20. It seems like the very early entries are using miracles as mathematical science. Pass.

We are very proud of the accuracy of this report and will continue to target ownership as part of a leverage and roster building metric to build towards takedowns.

Copperhead is a positional golf course with lots of trees, thick rough, narrow fairways and a lot of golfers will club down to get into position so bombers and short game artists can both excel on this course. This is one of the hardest PGA venues to gain strokes off the tee with. Copperhead ranks well below average in both driving accuracy and distance.

Players whom we have in the pool where the Frisky Biscuit comes from include Dylan Wu, Sam Ryder, Eric Cole, Kramer Hickok and Kevin Roy. All except Roy play later on Thursday. We will have the Biscuit play out as soon as we publish the ownership report.

Lets take a look at The Valspar DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Thomas, Justin26.110900
Hadwin, Adam22.19200
Spieth, Jordan21.610600
Fitzpatrick, Mathew21.410000
Rose, Justin20.29600
Burns, Sam18.910200
Clark, Wyndham17.88800
Suh, Justin 17.78900
Fleetwood, Tommy15.39800
Jaeger, Stephan 15.27800
Griffin, Ben15.18400
Harman, Brian14.39100
Perez, Victor 13.97800
Vegas, Jhonattan13.67700
Taylor, Nick13.57600
Duncan, Tyler12.97300
Woodland, Gary12.48600
McCarthy, Denny12.39300
Dahmen, Joel12.27500
Riley, Davis 11.99000
Ryder, Sam11.97300
Moore, Taylor11.88300
Wu, Brandon 11.68500
Lee, KH11.38000
List, Luke9.97200
Gerard, Ryan9.77300
Smalley, Alex 9.37400
Poston,  JT8.98100
Shelton, Robby8.87500
McNealy, Maverick8.48700
Gordon, Will8.37500
Hickok, Kramer8.17200
Bramlett, Joseph7.87200
Rodgers, Patrick7.77100
Hossler, Beau6.87400
Cole, Eric6.47300
Lingmerth, David6.17300
NeSmith, Matthew6.17200
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)6.07100
An, Byeong5.97900
Lashley, Nate5.97600
Taylor, Ben5.97200
Hodges, Lee 5.87100
Higgo, Garrick5.87600
Bhatia, Akshay 5.87500
Aberg, Ludvig5.77700
Hubbard, Mark5.47100
Martin, Ben4.97400
Wu, Dylan4.86800
Mullinax, Trey4.47200
Hardy, Nick4.17100
Schenk, Adam3.97100
Simpson, Webb3.57300
Lipsky, David3.27000
Coody, Pierceson 2.97400
Smotherman, Austin2.96600
Knox, Russell2.76900
Wallace, Matt2.66800
Glover, Lucas2.36700
Donald, Luke2.16800
Goya, Tano2.16600
Sigg, Greyson 1.97000
VanDerLaan, John1.96500
Frittelli, Dylan1.87000
Hadley, Chesson1.86900
Hoffman, Charley1.86900
Kim, Michael1.76900
Merritt, Troy1.76800
Johnson, Zack1.66800
Moore, Ryan1.66600
Stevens, Sam1.57200
Hall, Harry1.57000
Roy, Kevin1.46300
Laird, Martin1.37100
Armour, Ryan1.36500
Lebioda, Hank1.36200
Cink, Stewart1.27000
Kizzire, Patton1.26900
Streelman, Kevin1.26700
Lower, Justin1.26500
Tway, Kevin1.16700
Long, Adam1.06700
Kisner, Kevin0.97000
Daffue, MJ0.96900
Nunez, Augusto0.96600
Hahn, James0.96500
Van Rooyen, Erik0.87400
Higgs, Harry0.86900
Schwab, Matthias 0.86600
Norlander, Henrik0.76400
Eckroat, Austin 0.76300
Ramey, Chad0.67000
Young, Carson0.66800
Malnati, Peter0.66600
Novak, Andrew0.66500
Cook, Austin0.66400
Blair, Zac0.66200
Norrman, Vincent0.56700
Thompson, Michael0.56600
Ghim, Doug0.56500
Echavarria, Nico0.46800
Schmid, Matthias (Matti)0.46700
Hammer, Cole 0.46400
Haley II, Paul0.46400
Bryan, Wesley0.46300
Yuan, Carl0.46300
Champ, Cameron0.36700
Barnes, Erik0.36400
Dufner, Jason0.36300
Stanley, Kyle0.36200
Redman, Doc0.36200
Westmoreland, Kyle0.36200
Endycott, Harrison0.26400
Herman, Jim0.26300
Stuard, Brian0.26200
Werenski, Richy0.26200
Percy, Cameron0.26100
Harrington, Scott0.26100
Reavie, Chez0.16500
Trainer, Martin0.16400
Garnett, Brice0.16300
Grant, Brent0.16300
Walker, Jimmy0.16200
Streb, Robert0.16100
Sabbatini, Rory0.16100
Brehm, Ryan0.16100
Werbylo, Trevor0.16100
Holmes, JB0.16000
Gligic, Michael0.16000
Alexander, Tyson0.16000
Cone, Trevor0.16000
Duo, Zecheng0.06200
Gabrelcik, Nick (a)0.06500
Gribble, Cody0.06100
Landry, Andrew0.06100
Kraft, Kelly0.06100
Knade, Peter0.06100
Nido, Chris 0.06000
Matthews, Brandon0.06000
Chiarella, Alex0.06000
McGreevy, Max0.06000
Koch, Greg0.06000
Guise, Danny0.06000

These figures for The Valspar DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:07 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My picks for The Valspar

Top Tier: J. Thomas

Mid Tier: S. Jaeger

Low Tier: S. Ryder

Out in Left Play: K Roy

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Rose

FR Leader: Hickok (Contrarian)

What to Watch

Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. They provide you with the tools to learn how to make money. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, do not miss The Bettor Golf podcast! No one works harder than Spencer and Stix on bringing you information you can trust every week.The Premier Live Stream

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel, who won the draft last week. It also features Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s back to the familiar time slot at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. Show up, tune in, and help yourself and your audience win the week with the best team on the board! With the snake draft format it shows how the elite Win Daily Sports golf staff can stay within the salary guidelines and it brings you leverage plays and value gems.

This is a great week for DFS enthusiast. We have the Valspar, another stern test for golfers, and March Madness begins Thursday morning as well. Why did the chicken cross the basketball court? He heard the ref was blowing fouls. May your favorite teams advance as well as your six golfers!

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Valspar Championship Picks: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Valspar Championship Picks

Scottie Scheffler added to the legacy that is The Players Championship, as he romped to what ended up being a relatively simple 5 shot victory. Scheffler was easily our favourite player at the top of the board, but hard to justify as positive value at just 11/1 on a volatile course. Perhaps the scariest fact is that he was negative putting for the week until draining a long putt on the 18th. Thankfully, we don’t need to deal with the Big Three for our Valspar Championship picks this week.

For DFS purposes, we did have Scheffler alongside Hovland and Hoge as our core. Hoge was excellent value, priced at 140/1 in odds markets and $7,300 in DFS with just 3% ownership. Obviously, those three players finished in 3 of the top 4 spots. Hoge cashed us a full place payout with 1 unit at +2500 and 3 units +400 for a Top 20. We also score a Top 20 on Russell Henley with 3 units at +360. On the DP World Tour, Julien Brun finished 7th without really threatening the win. We score a full play payout on him with 2.5 units at +500. Let’s look for the winner this week in our Valspar Championship picks!

Course Analysis & Course Comps

Narrow, tree-lined fairways greet the players this week for our Valspar Championship picks
Narrow, tree-lined fairways greet the players this week

Innisbrook Golf Resort plays host this week, specifically the Copperhead Course. As we look to our Valspar Championship picks, it is worthy to note this is rarely a birdie fest. Winnings scores should reach low teens at best. There is even a chance that something in the -10 to -15 range may be good enough this week, with course changes and the weather (more on this shortly).

This tricky, narrow setup requires accuracy over distance off the tee. Finding the fairway is imperative and you will see players clubbing down often for their tee shots. The course is a long 7,340 yard par 71 with a unique five par 3 setup. This leads to a disproportionate number of iron shots occurring 175 yards or longer. Further, all five par 3s are 195 yards or longer.

In regards to the course changes, the rough has moved from 72″ to 21″. It has also been allowed to grow out to 3.75in, up from 3in last year. When you get very thick rough right up to the green, this limits the creativity and shot selections available to the player. Therefore, I suspect this will take some of the skill out of the chipping and add a bit of luck/volatility to the short game. It is worth noting this change.

Surprisingly, the majority of models I have seen this week are still hammering SG: ATG as if this change has not occurred. Chipping will absolutely form a part of the week. Certainly, the greens are medium to small in size, firm, and with high winds they will be hard to find from long distance. However, I simply don’t think SG: ATG should play the large emphasis some are suggesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Y8GjlcTmXA&t=1s

Course Comps Used for our Valspar Championship picks

Do note that Innisbrook has offered a low correlation between prior form and future success. I believe the reasons for this are two-fold. One, the tight fairways and thick rough add an element of volatility to the course. And, secondly, the top players usually avoid this tournament meaning some less consistent results may be expected.

In order of weighting and level of correlation, the following courses formed our guidance this week: Muirfield, TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, Concession, PGA National, TPC Sawgrass.

Weather

A decent weather edge has developed as the tournament has approached.

Thursday afternoon looks to have the lowest winds of the day. Further, adding to this edge is a very windy Friday. Friday winds peak in the afternoon at 15-18mph with gusts reaching up to 30mph. This leads to an advantage on both of the first two days for the players starting Thursday PM/Friday AM. Currently, we are projecting this edge to be a substantial 0.75-1.00 strokes on average.

Also, an important note for Saturday and Sunday is there may be thunderstorms in the area. It is a distinct possibility that any substantial delays would result in a loss of a days play.

In this instance, it is unlikely the PGA Tour will extend the finish to Monday due to the early start Wednesday next week with the WGC Matchplay. I will be paying close attention to the weather and advise accordingly. If it appears a 54 hole tournament is a possibility, some in-play opportunities may develop where some outsiders close to the lead manage to hold on due to the truncated tournament.

Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord here for the latest live updates.

You can find the latest weather forecasts here.

Valspar Championship Picks & Golf Betting Tips – Final Card

Suggested Staking – 25 points staked

Justin Rose – Your Valspar Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +2200 Fanduel/MGM
2.5pts Top 5 +490 Fanduel
or
2.5pts E/W +2500 Bet365 (with 5 places 1/4 odds)

Wyndham Clark
2.5pts +4000 Fanduel
2.5pts Top 10 +360 Fanduel
or 2.5pts E/W +3500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Taylor Moore
2pts +7000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +650 Fanduel
or 2pts E/W +7000 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tyler Duncan – Your Valspar Championship Picks Best Value
1pt WIN +7000 Draftkings/MGM
1pt Top 10 +650 Draftkings
or 1pt E/W +7500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Mark Hubbard
0.5pts WIN +13000 Draftkings
0.5pts Top 10 +1000 Fanduel/Draftkings
or 0.5pts E/W +12500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2pts Top 20

Kevin Roy
0.5pt WIN +38000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +3000 Draftkings
or 0.5pt E/W +40000 William Hill (with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1100 Fanduel/Draftkings
And
2pts Top 40 +300 Draftkings/ +400 Bet365

DFS Core: Justin Rose, Wyndham Clark, Tyler Duncan.

Player Profiles

Favourites Analysis

We have been rather spoiled of late with the elevated event schedules coming into full force. I don’t think this can be argued to be a “weak” field. Certainly, there will be other tournaments this year which carry far less class than we find here. However, with the absence of the usual studs of Rahm, Scheffler, and McIlroy at the top of the board, it makes an interesting situation where all the players at the top of the board carry some concerns.

Questions have to be asked of the poor short game for Justin Thomas over the last 6 months, coupled with a regression in his usual elite iron play. Spieth is a shade better, having found some better irons in 3 of his last 4 starts. His driving accuracy remains a slight concern for me here. Sam Burns goes for the three-peat here but has looked nothing like the golfer he was when he achieved those back-to-back victories. All three end up on the wrong side of the predicted weather edge. Fitzpatrick gets the better side of it, but has been heavily backed in after Ben Coley tipped him and still carries some injury concerns.

Realistically, this then leaves with Hadwin, Fleetwood, and Rose. Hadwin is on the wrong side of the draw and hasn’t won a tournament since 2017. Fleetwood’s only victories since 2018 have both come at the Nedbank Challenge (November 2019 and 2022). I do think Fleetwood profiles well for here and has shown better form of late. However, both of those victories came in lower standard DP World Tour tournaments with a reduced field of 66 and 63 players.

Justin Rose – Your Valspar Championship Picks Favourite

As such, we are left with Justin Rose. Arriving here after another strong finish of 6th at The Players Championship, Rose was a recent winner in February at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. That windy, narrow test with small greens is certainly not the worst consideration towards the style of play required for success this week. His approach play is vastly improved in his last 5 starts and he also gained on driving accuracy quite significantly to the field last week. He also is one of the few top players that get the perceived right side of the weather draw. Justin Rose sits 18th for Par 3 scoring on the PGA Tour for the 2022-2023 season and should benefit from this unusual scorecard setup.

Finally, the correlating course form is excellent. Included in this is a course history including 9 top 30s (with 3 Top 10s) in 11 appearances. The two other tournaments were missed cuts, but came when losing -1.99 and -2.55 strokes putting per round having gained all other appearances here. Justin Rose owns a house in Florida and is familiar with these bermuda grass surfaces. This all indicates that this is a track that really suits his overall game and style of play, all for a golfer in excellent form.

Wyndham Clark

In our 2022 season review and 2023 season preview episode, I mentioned Wyndham Clark as one of three players that I expected would have a big year. His recent form has really shown that his maiden PGA Tour victory may be imminent. This has been driven by huge improvement in his approach play, previously the weakness in his game. Such has been the growth, that Clark now rates as 4th in this field for SG: APP in the last 3 months. Notably, last week’s performance saw him gain on the field for driving accuracy suggesting a comfort in clubbing down off the tee. Typically excellent around the greens and putting, long off the tee, and with his irons having shown eye-catching improvement this seems an opportunity primed for breakout.

Having only mildly lost strokes putting here on his three previous appearances, I’m heartened by the fact he has gained substantially on the Florida greens in all appearances at both the Honda Classic and The Players. Last week’s 27th place finish at The Players marks 10 made cuts in a row, with 9 of those finishes 37th or better and 4 in the top 16.

Data Golf currently rank Wyndham Clark as the 33rd best player in the world, just behind Justin Rose in 31st. His Official World Golf Ranking of 109th suggests this is a situation ripe for imminent correction. Considering the recent run of elevated events, it all bodes well for Wyndham Clark in this field.

Taylor Moore

Taylor Moore rated as the best value in my first look for our Valspar Championship picks. Unfortunately, he ending up on the wrong side of the draw and this did move him down the board slightly in my models. However, he still presents decent value if he can fade the weather draw.

Taylor Moore qualified for the PGA Tour after finishing an impressive 4th on the Korn Ferry Tour ahead of the likes of Taylor Pendrith and Davis Riley. A rookie season was quietly solid, qualifying for the Fed Ex Cup playoffs and making it through to the BMW Championship.

He has now started 2023 with real intent. Of all players on the PGA Tour since 1st January with more than 50 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards, Moore ranks 3rd. He has gained +2.68 strokes on approach in 3 of his last 5 starts. Accurate off the tee whilst maintaining distance is an advantage here, as are his putting statistics with missed greens an inevitably for all players. Beside the 35th at the “5th major” last week, he also recently finished 14th at the WM Phoenix Open in another elevated event. It all profiles well for this drop in grade.

Tyler Duncan – Your Valspar Championship Picks Best Value

Surpassing Moore for best value in my model this week was Tyler Duncan. Duncan profiles really nicely for this course, benefits from the weather draw, and is moving into decent form. Duncan has now gained or been at field average for approach in his last four tournaments. He ranks 10th in this field for SG: Total and 15th for SG: T2G over those four events. Notably, he also ranks as number 1 for driving accuracy gaining a massive 15.3% on the field.

The 54th finish last week at The Players should be read a bit more kindly than it first appears on paper. In consideration should be taken in the context of the strength of field alongside a final round losing a 2nd worst -3.36 strokes putting. Had he even putted at field average in the final round, he would have finished a very respectable 27th. That is easily forgivable for me in a first real appearance of note in a huge event like The Players.

Duncan has finished 25th and 39th in his last two appearances here whilst gaining putting. Two missed cuts preceded this, but came when losing with the putter and in pretty dreadful incoming form. However, he has gained on approach here in all 4 starts. The 3rd at the Honda Classic two starts ago is a great pointer to success. He gained +1.53 putting per round to sit 6th for SG: PUTT that week on similar greens, having also gained significantly at that tournament previously. If he can bring that putter through to this week, he could be a real dark horse come Sunday.

Mark Hubbard

Following a career best year in 2022 on the PGA Tour, Hubbard holds some great upside for me this week. Notably, the main difference to last year thus far has been a pretty horrific start to the year putting. Long run data suggests this is actually a strength to his game typically, and encouragingly he gained +1.15 strokes putting here last year. With putting one of the most volatile statistics, it can also be the quickest to return.

As well as gaining strokes putting last week when 35th at The Players, Hubbard gained across the board last week. He has gained for driving accuracy in 7 straight tournaments and his approach play has improved lately as well. This all suggests his ball striking is in fine shape. Hubbard actually sits 9th of all players on the PGA Tour since 1st January with more than 40 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards. Driving accuracy, improved ball striking, and long irons all leads to a picture that should fit here.

Kevin Roy

Finally, I can’t resist a speculative play on Kevin Roy at overly inflated odds. Kevin Roy is in a rich vein of ball-striking form, sitting 3rd in this field for SG: APP over the last 3 months. A lot of these approach gains have come at 150 yards or more. Particularly, he sits 4th on the PGA Tour in 2023 with more than 25 recorded approach shots over 200+ yards. Perhaps even more eye-popping is that he is 11th in this field for SG: T2G over the last 3 months. He has also gained significantly on the field for driving accuracy in his last two starts, suggesting the excellent ball striking should continue here.

Also of note is that Roy is somewhat of a local. He moved to Tampa Bay straight after college and has been based in the area ever since. You have to imagine he has played this course a number of times and will experience some comfort of that local knowledge, as well as staying at his own home each night. A lot will come down to whether he can find his putter here. However, having gained putting in 5 of his last 8 starts that is certainly with the risk for me at such a huge price.

Thank you reading our 2023 Valspar Championship picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

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DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for The Players

cdenny99@hotmail.com
written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The Players DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections at Sawgrass. The Players will test every single facet of any golfers game. The Par 4s are “S” shaped meaning the golfers have to bring in their best fade and a draw. The Par 5’s will offer Eagle and birdie opportunities except for #9. Ninety five percent of the golfers will take three shots to the green to stay out of bogey or worse. The Players DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are designed to give you the leverage, value and pivots to help you rocket up the leaderboard to position yourself for a takedown and try and negate some of the volatility of the specific holes that are trouble.

If you want to see trouble, look no further than 17, the infamous island hole. Tom Kim was practicing with Homa, Spieth and JT. Kim hit a great shot that eventually rolled off the green into the water. Homa was next, he showed his hand to JT and Jordan, it was shaking. For a practice round. On a Tuesday.

Recent Results

Last week we put out 2 Frisky Biscuit plays in Discord Wednesday night. They both made the cut and brought value, not only for making the weekend but also for allowing you to get another stud golfer up top. On Saturday and Sunday we put out Trey Mullinax for Showdown. He was fourth in total scoring for DK Showdown points, was 6200 and 6400 salary, if you had him you went green for both days. This week brings our current record to 35-7 for a 6K salaried golfer under 5% ownership. That’s 83% winners in the toughest category imaginable. Win Daily Sports loves to excel at the incredibly difficult.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “Green” for a free test drive to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. It’s only 5.99 a week, way less than a cup of coffee a day to subscribe and get this amazing access.

The Course – The Field

This tourney is an elevated event, with 49 0f the top 50 participating. A wedding date kept the one top golfer from attending, I’m pretty sure it was his own wedding. The par 3’s include an 8th hole that is 237 yards long, the golfers will need a long iron or better to navigate it. The par 4s measure from 302 yards to 481 yards, in fact three of the par 4s are in excess of 470 yards. Holes 2, 11, and 16 will offer Eagle and birdie chances for the par 5’s, hole 9 will be the beast and be much tougher. The eighteenth hole is currently averaging +.75 strokes over par, the tourney may come down to how well the players can handle the pressure coming home on the last two.

Whether to trust the Weather

At present the weather is calling for moderate winds later Friday. There may be a very slight advantage for Thursday afternoon, Friday morning waves. Please check with the Win Daily Sports Discord later tonight for up to the minute weather changes.

Targets and Traps

I will again be keying on ownership again for this field. The top is littered with major winners and the present superstars of golf. As we saw last week, Kitayama came from the depths to beat the best, our very own Stix highlighted him. Players in the lower tier we are considering are Lashley, Molinari, Jaeger, Riley and Suh with Mitchell and Griffin popping in the mid range.

Lets take a look at The Players DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Day, Jason27.48000
Cantlay, Patrick23.99700
Bradley, Keegan23.87500
Scheffler, Scottie21.910600
Thomas, Justin21.89400
Hovland, Viktor20.78900
McIlroy, Rory20.411000
Hatton, Tyrrell19.88300
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 17.48100
Mitchell, Keith17.37400
Conners, Corey17.27400
Homa, Max16.39900
Finau, Tony15.49200
Zalatoris,Will15.38800
Morikawa, Collin14.69500
Kim, Si Woo14.37600
Young, Cameron13.98500
Rahm, John13.411800
Im, Sungjae12.89000
Fowler, Rickie11.77500
Fitzpatrick, Mathew10.48600
Theegala, Sahith10.27600
Spieth, Jordan10.18700
Fleetwood, Tommy9.67900
Schauffele, Xander9.310000
Lowry, Shane9.38200
Scott,Adam7.97700
Hadwin, Adam7.57100
Kirk, Chris7.47900
Power, Seamus7.37400
Riley, Davis 7.26500
Hoge, Tom6.97400
Harman, Brian6.87400
Kucher, Matt6.47200
Burns, Sam6.37800
Kitayama, Kurt 6.26900
Suh, Justin 6.26600
Henley, Russell6.17300
Montgomery, Taylor5.87300
Rose, Justin4.97700
Noren, Alex4.87300
Vegas, Jhonattan4.66800
Matsuyama, Hideki4.28400
English, Harris4.17000
Clark, Wyndham3.97100
Simpson, Webb3.86800
Wise, Aaron3.77200
Poston,  JT3.67000
Jaeger, Stephan 3.66500
Woodland, Gary3.57000
Taylor, Nick3.47000
Lee, KH3.37200
Dahmen, Joel3.36800
Fox, Ryan3.16700
Svensson, Adam2.96600
Horschel, Billy2.87600
Todd, Brendon2.76900
Grillo, Emiliano2.66800
McCarthy, Denny2.47300
Putnam, Andrew2.27200
Detry,Thomas 2.27100
Wu, Brandon 2.16400
Lee, Min Woo1.97300
Molinari, Francesco1.96400
Spaun, JJ1.97000
Moore, Taylor1.86900
Shelton, Robby1.86600
Rai, Aaron1.76600
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan1.77000
Griffin, Ben1.67100
Smalley, Alex 1.47100
Herbert, Lucas 1.47100
Willett, Danny1.46400
Ryder, Sam1.46300
Buckley, Hayden1.36900
Bramlett, Joseph1.36200
Straka, Sepp1.27200
Pendrith, Taylor 1.17200
Mullinax, Trey1.16600
List, Luke1.16500
NeSmith, Matthew1.16400
Duncan, Tyler1.16400
Stallings, Scott1.06700
McNealy, Maverick0.97800
Davis, Cameron0.97000
Gordon, Will0.96900
Hughes, Mackenzie0.96500
Martin, Ben0.96400
Ghim, Doug0.96100
Hardy, Nick0.86900
Rodgers, Patrick0.86800
Lipsky, David0.86700
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)0.86700
Hodges, Lee 0.76800
An, Byeong0.76700
Hossler, Beau0.76600
Frittelli, Dylan0.76200
Cole, Eric0.76200
Wallace, Matt0.66900
Palmer, Ryan0.66700
Kizzire, Patton0.66300
Kisner, Kevin0.56800
Schenk, Adam0.56500
Lashley, Nate0.56200
Higgo, Garrick0.46700
Thompson, Davis 0.46600
Hubbard, Mark0.46300
Cink, Stewart0.46200
Hadley, Chesson0.46100
Laird, Martin0.46000
Barnes, Erik0.46000
Sigg, Greyson 0.36500
Tarren, Callum0.36400
Streelman, Kevin0.36300
Long, Adam0.36300
Hahn, James0.36200
Wu, Dylan0.36200
Glover, Lucas0.36100
Echavarria, Nico0.36100
Baddeley, Aaron0.36000
Knox, Russell0.26500
Lingmerth, David0.26200
Piercy, Scott0.26200
Reavie, Chez0.26100
Hickok, Kramer0.26000
Merritt, Troy0.16300
Thompson, Michael0.16200
Malnati, Peter0.16100
Tway, Kevin0.16100
Schwab, Matthias0.16100
Redman, Doc0.16100
Endycott, Harrison0.16100
Streb, Robert0.16000
Smotherman, Austin0.16000
Novak, Andrew0.16000
Lower, Justin0.06300
Alexander, Tyson0.06100
Watney, Nick0.06000
Kelly, Jerry0.06000
Kraft, Kelly0.06000
Ramey, Chad0.06000
Brehm, Ryan0.06000
McGreevy, Max0.06000

These figures for The Players DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:07 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My picks for The Players

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Hattan

Low Tier: Bradley

Out in Left Play: Griffin

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Sungjae IM

FR Leader: Hadwin (Contrarian)

What to Watch

Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. They provide you with the tools to learn how to make money. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, do not miss The Bettor Golf podcast! No one works harder than Spencer and Stix on bringing you imbedded trusted intel week after week.

Last week Stix highlighted Kurt Kitayama at 200-1 who won the tourney. He also had Victor Hovland who made several runs at the title. Spencer is the undisputed king of the DraftCast with all the wins he’s racked up. His H2H plays are on fire. That is actionable intel that makes a huge difference and makes you money!

The Premier Live Stream

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel, who won 20,000.00 in Golf DFS a week ago Sunday, and featuring Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s back to the familiar time slot at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. Show up, tune in, and help yourself and your audience win the week with the best team on the board! With the snake draft format it shows how the elite Win Daily Sports golf staff can stay within the salary guidelines and bring you leverage plays and value gems.

The Players is a great tourney to watch, the players have several shots to choose from on most of the holes and you have your notorious 17th island green. Short hitters, bombers and all in between have been successful on this course. DraftKings finally has a 1,000,000 first prize and the player pricing is soft this week. Watch your total combined ownership numbers and leave a few hundred on the table to get unique. This is golf’s sweet spot with the Masters on the horizon. Enjoy!!

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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The Players Picks 2023: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
The Players Picks 2023 include some value longshots this week

The Players Championship. The 5th Major. The PGA Tour’s flagship event. Call it what you will, it is known by both the PGA professionals and fans alike that this tournament matters a little more than most. Perhaps due to the list of winners, perhaps due to the iconic TPC Sawgrass course, and perhaps due to the dramatic finishes we have come to know and love from this event. Those dramatic finishes and volatility that comes here help guide our Players picks this year.

It what was another great week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where we scored a huge hit with winning ticket on Kurt Kitayama at +6000. We added Kitayama live in-play in the WinDaily Discord. His overall metrics were good. The telling factor was, having followed his game closely since 2018, that Kitayama has massive boom or bust potential. When he gets in contention, he doesn’t shy away from competition and tends to stick around despite the names surrounding him. We saw this when 2nd to Rahm at the Mexico Open, 2nd to McIlroy at the CJ Cup, and 2nd to Schauffele at the Scottish Open. Where others shy away, Kitayama has shown he can hang around with the best. We also secured a full place payout on Tyrrell Hatton. He also had his winning chances, as did Schauffele who faded over the weekend.

Finally, before we get into our Players picks, in the alternate event we had 6/6 make the cut at the Puerto Rico Open with 5/6 ending up 33rd or better. 80/1 shot John VanDerLaan the brightest of those to finish 7th cashing both Top 10 and Top 20 tickets. A correct weather prediction in 2022 saw us score big on 225/1 shot Russell Knox securing a full place payout. All promising signs for our Players picks in 2023.

Weather is a factor for your Players picks

Will weather be a factor in 2023 for our Players picks? Last year, we were one of few in the industry to get the weather right. Where all others predicted a Thursday PM/Friday AM, we were contrarian and recommend the opposite. Reasoning was that Thursday PM was likely to face substantial delays due to thunderstorms in the area. This would lead to the perceived weather edge flipping. This indeed happened, and we found ourselves on the right side of a huge weather edge of more than +3 strokes on average.

Although the weather does not appear to be as significant as in 2022, there does seem to be a potential advantage developing. Thursday AM looks to have marginally higher winds than Thursday PM, which are forecast to drop throughout the afternoon. Friday PM winds do look to be increasing on current forecasting models. Gusts Friday PM now look forecast to consistently hit over 30mph.

This will not be the same weather edge we experienced last year. However, it should form part of your process making your Players picks. It should absolutely be used as a tiebreaker if deciding between two specific players. We currently predict the edge to fall around the 0.5-0.75 strokes range given current weather predictions.

Latest weather forecast click here

Key Course Stats and Comp Courses

Course Analysis for our Players Picks

TPC Sawgrass provides a stern test and, perhaps the reason the tournament holds such allure, is that it serves as a great leveler. The key statistic I keep coming back to his driving accuracy. This has been a great predictor of success on this course in years past. It is also worthy noting that the rough has been grown out another full extra inch in 2023. With rough at 3.5in, finding the rough will be even more important this week.

The penalty of rough plays one part and so does the large amount of water in play here. Water features of 17 out of 18 holes. TPC Sawgrass ranks as 7th on tour for most penalty strokes incurred. Missed fairway percentage sits at 13th most on tour. As such, this is one of the most volatile stops on the PGA Tour calendar so do note this when interpreting our Players picks.

Dispersion of approach shots also bears interest. This is the 5th most difficult course for approach shots under 150 yards. Specifically, the 50-125 yard bracket sees a disproportionate number of shots. On the other end of the scale, there are a larger number of shots over 225 yards. This is a combination of going for par 5s in two, but also golfers clubbing down off the tee to gain accuracy and avoid penalties. It is the latter which is why driving distance seems to be an advantage here. For our Players picks, personally would rather delve into the actual meaningful statistics which are the approach metrics from those key distances.

Comp Courses for our Players Picks

Wyndham Championship host Sedgefield Country Club is the key correlated course this week for your Players picks. Si Woo Kim has won at both including an additional 2nd, 3rd, and 5th for good measure. Additionally, Webb Simpson and Henrik Stenson have won at both. This, though, extends to more than tournament winners. Anirban Lahiri followed his 2nd at The Players with 8th at the Wyndham. Then there is Adam Scott who has 5 Top 15s at The Players and a 2nd around Sedgefield. The list goes on ad infinitum.

Other guides are Harbour Town: another Pete Dye designed short, positional course with premium on accuracy and approach. Then, you have the similar TPC tracks to consider. Most notably TPC Potomac along with TPC River Highlands and TPC Twin Cities. The Valspar Championship also shows parallels. It benefits both from similarly requiring accuracy off the tee and rewarding approach, btu also sharing very similar putting surfaces.

The aforementioned volatility shapes my Players picks. The three winners from 2019-2022 (2020 cancelled due to COVID) have been studs: Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy. That could so easily read: Anirban Lahiri, Lee Westwood, and a 50 year old Jim Furyk. There are opportunities to be had here if you can find the right combinations. Hence, the lopsided selections towards value at longer odds this week.

2023 The Players Picks

Suggested Staking

Note several of the below players were provided early in WinDaily Discord to obtain the best odds for our customers. Unfortunately, several of these have now ended up on the wrong side of the developing weather draw. Tee-times are noted accordingly.

Tom Kim (AM/PM)
2pts WIN +4100 Fanduel
2pts Top 10 +360 DK
or 2pts E/W +4500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)

Chris Kirk (PM/AM) – Our Players Picks Favourite
2pts WIN +8000 Draftkings
2pts Top 10 +650 Draftkings or +700 Bet365
or 2pts E/W +7500 Bet365 (with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tom Hoge (PM/AM)
1pt WIN +13000 Fanduel
1pt Top 10 +850 Fanduel or +1100 William Hill/Unibet
or 1pt E/W +12500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 +360 Fanduel or +400 Unibet

Russell Henley (AM/PM)
0.5pt WIN +11000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +750 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 +360 Fanduel

Davis Riley (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +18000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +1100 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 +550 Fanduel or +650 Unibet
3pts Top 40 +350 MGM

Webb Simpson (AM/PM) – Our Players Picks Best Value
0.5pt WIN +15000 MGM
0.5pt Top 10 +1000 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +25000 Unibet (with 7 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 30 +250 Fanduel

J.T. Poston (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +22000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +1100 MGM
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 William Hill (with 9 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 30 J.T. Poston +240 Fanduel or +300 Bet365

David Lipsky (PM/AM)
0.5pt WIN +45000 Fanduel
0.5pt Top 10 +2200 DK
or 0.5pts E/W +40000 William Hill (with 9 places 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 +850 Draftkings
3pts Top 40 +250 Draftkings

Thank you reading our 2023 The Players picks. For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

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DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

cdenny99@hotmail.com
written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to The API DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections at Bay Hill. The API is a tough course that will test every facet of a golfers game. Adding some high wind to the equation can make it even tougher. The greens are presently as fast as they’ve been, and the rough is the thickest it’s ever been. This will not be a birdie fest. The API DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are designed to give you the leverage, value and pivots to help you rocket up the leaderboard to position yourself for a takedown.

Recent Results

Last week we put out 3 Frisky Biscuit plays in Discord Wednesday night due to 90 players being in the 6K range. All three made the cut easily, and one of our picks finished 2nd in a playoff. They brought tremendous leverage and value. Eric Cole was 6700 and owned by 3 % of the field. 97% of all the players missed the plays or were to afraid to roster our three picks. Win Daily Sports did not. We also hit for three straight days on Showdown, (we do not play Thursday Showdown) including a 19th place finish for Saturday. This brings our record to 32-7 for unwanted players with the lowest salary that nobody owns.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “Green” for a free test drive to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. It’s an unbelievable 5.99 a week to subscribe and get this amazing access.

The Course – The Field

This tourney is loaded with top talent and talent will be necessary for this course. Water surrounds 9 of the holes. The API has had the most penalty strokes by a large margin in 3 of the last 4 years. Heavy winds, forecast starting Friday afternoon, will increase the difficulty. Par will be a good score if the winds hang around the weekend.

Whether to trust the Weather

At present the weather is calling for high winds in the mid twenties. Bay Hill is a beast, adding high winds is like sharpening its fangs. There may be a clear advantage for Thursday afternoon, Friday morning waves. Please check with the Win Daily Sports Discord later tonight for up to the minute weather changes.

Targets and Traps

I will again be keying on ownership again for this field. There are plenty of premium studs in the top three ranges. Rahmbo is presently #1 and is playing like it. His metrics are off the charts, rostering him makes it tough to get two or three studs in the field. Xander, Scottie and Max, and especially McIlroy will round out the premium plays. Some other plays we are considering are Pendrith Wise, Harman, Hoge, Bradley, Buckley, Bramlett, Lee and Hardy. We shy away from any 6 or 7K golfers that garner 10-15% ownership, it’s the kiss of death in DFS golf. We simulate 70,000 API tourneys to get our Frisky Biscuit on an AI program that is doing very well at the moment. No one else except Win Daily Sports has these programs, or the huge electric bills.

Lets take a look at The API DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
McIlroy, Rory26.610600
Hatton, Tyrrell20.28300
Cantlay, Patrick18.89100
Scheffler, Scottie17.910900
Mitchell, Keith17.78000
Rahm, John17.411500
Zalatoris,Will17.39400
Schauffele, Xander16.99200
Morikawa, Collin16.89500
Day, Jason16.78500
Bradley, Keegan16.27600
Homa, Max15.89700
Finau, Tony15.69300
Fleetwood, Tommy14.97500
Hovland, Viktor13.99000
Fowler, Rickie13.87700
Im, Sungjae13.68900
Young, Cameron12.48700
Thomas, Justin11.59600
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 11.38400
Kirk, Chris10.87700
Conners, Corey10.77800
Harman, Brian10.47200
Fitzpatrick, Mathew10.28800
Power, Seamus9.67400
Burns, Sam9.58100
Lowry, Shane9.47900
Montgomery, Taylor9.37400
Matsuyama, Hideki9.18200
Woodland, Gary8.97400
Rose, Justin8.87600
Wise, Aaron8.67200
Hoge, Tom7.77300
Pendrith, Taylor 6.36900
Theegala, Sahith6.27900
Spieth, Jordan5.98600
Lee, Min Woo5.87300
Buckley, Hayden5.86500
Clark, Wyndham5.77500
Scott,Adam5.47600
Meronk, Adrian5.17200
Hadwin, Adam4.97500
Rodgers, Patrick4.96900
Dahmen, Joel4.86800
Griffin, Ben4.76700
Kim, Si Woo4.17500
Horschel, Billy3.97800
Hossler, Beau3.97100
Gordon, Will3.86500
Smalley, Alex 3.36700
Henley, Russell3.37100
Suh, Justin 3.26900
Kitayama, Kurt 3.26800
Riley, Davis 3.16600
Grillo, Emiliano3.16600
Herbert, Lucas 2.97400
List, Luke2.97300
Spaun, JJ2.86900
Lee, KH2.87100
Straka, Sepp2.77000
Ryder, Sam2.77000
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan2.67100
Shelton, Robby2.66600
Taylor, Ben2.56500
Bramlett, Joseph2.46700
An, Byeong2.17000
Moore, Taylor1.97100
Svensson, Adam1.96800
Thompson, Davis 1.86800
Hoffman, Charley1.86300
Taylor, Nick1.77300
Willett, Danny1.76800
Hodges, Lee 1.76600
Higgo, Garrick1.66600
Putnam, Andrew1.56700
Hardy, Nick1.56400
Fox, Ryan1.47000
Stallings, Scott1.46800
Noren, Alex1.37200
Detry,Thomas 1.37200
Cole, Eric1.26900
Davis, Cameron1.26700
Hughes, Mackenzie1.26500
Glover, Lucas1.16100
Johnson, Zack0.96500
Lipsky, David0.96400
Simpson, Webb0.96300
Laird, Martin0.96200
Todd, Brendon0.86700
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)0.86600
NeSmith, Matthew0.86200
Sigg, Greyson 0.86200
Lawrence, Thriston0.86100
English, Harris0.77000
Rai, Aaron0.76400
Lingmerth, David0.76200
Molinari, Francesco0.66900
Kisner, Kevin0.66500
Palmer, Ryan0.66400
Schenk, Adam0.66400
Aberg, Ludvig (a)0.66300
Streelman, Kevin0.56100
Mullinax, Trey0.46400
Baddeley, Aaron0.46200
Lower, Justin0.46200
Merritt, Troy0.46000
Kizzire, Patton0.36300
Malnati, Peter0.36200
Coody, Pierceson 0.36100
Reavie, Chez0.36000
Cink, Stewart0.26300
Tarren, Callum0.26100
Harrington, Padraig0.16300
Brehm, Ryan0.16100
Alexander, Tyson0.16100
Donald, Luke0.16000
Johnson, Kamaiu0.06000
Hammer, Cole 0.06000
Westmoreland, Kyle0.06000
Koch, Greg0.06000

These figures for The API DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:07 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My picks for The API

Top Tier: Scheffler

Mid Tier: Hattan

Low Tier: Rose

Out in Left Play: Rodgers

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Morikawa

FR Leader: Mitchell (contrarian)

What to Watch

Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. They provide you with the tools to learn how to make money. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, do not miss The Bettor Golf podcast! No one works harder than Spencer and Stix on bringing you imbedded trusted intel week after week.

The Premier Live Stream

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel, who won 20,000.00 in Golf DFS on Sunday!, and featuring Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s back to the familiar time slot at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. Show up, tune in, and help yourself and your audience win the week with the best team on the board! With the snake draft format it shows how the elite Win Daily Sports golf staff can stay within the salary guidelines and bring you leverage plays and value gems.

Last week LVI chose to go up against a weaker field at the Honda for their premier first event. It drew an overnight share of an embarrassing .2 % in 26 metered markets. A rerun of Worlds Funniest Animals beat them in the time slot, a lot of executives at the CW moved it to the graveyard at the rear of cable, for good reason. The PGA averaged 2.3 million in the same markets and trounced LVI. They aren’t adding any new players so it’s a closed shop. The same 12 teams, the same 48 golfers for the entire year. Golf is unique in that it’s an individual sport with the exception of the Ryder Cup. The team concept at LIV has fallen flat on it’s face. No one cares, and Ryder is exciting, that’s because 99% of the Ryder Cup players play on the PGA. Instead of using the team funds for winning to be split among the players, they are now using them to pay hotel and transportation costs instead. Ouch.

David Feherty moved to LIV golf as an announcer. I loved the comment he made on Ian Poulter’s pants a while back at the British Open. he said, “well, I guess motel six is looking for whoever stole their drapes.”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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Sports BettingPGAPremium

Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski
Tom Kim Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks
We are all aboard the Tom Kim train at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The PGA Tour returns to what almost feels like “regularly scheduled programming” with a third elevated event in just four tournaments. Of course, we should still appreciate that these fields are anything from the norm experienced in previous seasons. 44 of the worlds top 50 golfers will descend on the always tricky Bay Hill Club & Lodge. It is a venue comparable to a US Open setup and with the same caliber field to boot. An interesting backdrop as we dissect the selections for our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks.

Despite being an “off” week for the stars of the Tour, the Honda Classic provided a highly entertaining tournament. In contrast, the fact that the LIV Golf opening tournament at Mayakoba barely made a blip on the radar is telling. LIV will be shocked their Saturday ratings only hit 0.2 (here), which was some 5 times lower than at the Honda Classic. The simple fact is viewers want not just stars, but a reason and purpose for them to win and not just their paycheck. Undoubtedly, Chris Kirk’s victory in the playoff win over Eric Cole provided all the narratives for the week.

Our 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

We hope our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks are as well received as last year. At this event in 2022, we went agonizingly close with three of our six selections all looking likely title charges. Viktor Hovland (16/1), Gary Woodland (80/1), and Lucas Herbert (200/1) all presented likely winners during the tournament. They eventually finished 2nd, 5th, and 7th respectively. Woodland was actually the most likely, until finding a bunker and a double bogey on the 17th followed by another bogey down the last.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7696AUCkrIo
Gary Woodland reviews a tough finish to his 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational title tilt

That stumble allowed Scottie Scheffler to surprisingly snatch victory. Let’s hope our 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks produce more of the same with some better fortune.

Course Analysis

It is first essential to note that Bay Hill Club & Lodge possesses some of the highest correlation of prior course form to success on the PGA Tour. Only Augusta National and TPC Scottsdale hold a higher correlation. This unique and difficult test does have a few nuances which identify this and should guide our thinking entering our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks.

You will hear a lot on driving distance being a predictive factor this week. This, however, does require a little more scrutiny than simply accepting that fact on face value. The true reasoning for this is not simply that a bomb and gouge approach will work here for our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. Rather, the extremely juicy 3in Ryegrass rough requires some strength to escape.

The distance off the tee also comes into play with the disproportionate number of approach shots that will occur from over 200 yards. Notably, the par 3s play as the longest on the regular PGA Tour stops. Simply, those longer hitters will be holding more loft in their hand for those long iron shots when approaching these firm and glassy fast greens.

Fairways are decently wide with an average width of 33 yards at the 300 yard mark and 39 yards at the 325 mark. Green complexes are also very large at an average of 7,500 sq ft. SG: PUTT is highly correlated to success here. This is predominantly due to where you are on the greens matters above simply GIR, as well as the lengthened approach shots into many holes.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks – Key Metrics

For our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, this all leads to a profile of heavy emphasis on approach. Driving distance is a bonus, but my key is finding value by honing into the 200+ yard approach metrics. SG: PUTT receives a boost given the inclement weather and large green complexes. SG: ATG is minimized due to thick rough surrounding the greens meaning the natural variation of lies mitigates those with excellent pitching ability.

Course Comps

As previously mentioned, course history should form a large part in your Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. There are another few courses which can guide our thinking. Do take a look at round 4 from last year’s tournament. That round suffered significant winds, which we expect to see here on both Friday and Saturday.

As mentioned, the US Open like setup should mean the majority of those venues can provide guidance. Host of the PGA Championship last year was Southern Hills, which has similar metrics with the added benefit of being a wind affected event. TPC Scottsdale also shows similarities to here. That occurs both on long approach play but also reasonably large fairways with significant penalty if straying too far. Trump National Doral is a fantastic guide for anyone whose form goes back that far.

Weather

Already well canvassed across many tipsters, it does look that a firm weather edge is forming. Friday afternoon in particular looks to feature some significant winds with gusts reaching over 35 mph. These high winds are then expected to remain through the 3rd round before easing slightly Sunday. A Thursday PM/Friday AM stack looks to be the play.

As always, this does come with risks. There is a chance that this particular front will arrive earlier than expected. This could result in any advantage being negated, and missed opportunities in the other half of the field. However, I always like to take an aggressive approach in these situations. We have tangible data to action here. And the closer we have got to tee time, the certainty of the Friday weather remaining exclusively in the afternoon has also increased.

https://www.windy.com/28.465/-81.510?27.913,-81.510,8,m:esBadTk

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele
2.5pts E/W $23.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Tyrrell Hatton
2pts E/W $36.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Tom Kim
2pts E/W $51.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Gary Woodland
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.20

Patrick Rodgers
0.5pts E/W $176.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $7.00

Will Gordon
0.5pts E/W $301.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds) *available at 350/1 or longer without the places
3pts Top 20 $8.50

Player Profiles

Xander Schauffele – Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks Favourite

With Chris Kirk becoming the umpteenth golfer to win a week or two after featuring in our selections, I’m happy to take Xander here again to headline our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks. Last time in our tips was at the correlated WM Phoenix Open, where he was just one shot off the lead heading into the final 9. A cold putter saw 6 of 9 putts missing by 25in or less. He finished just one shot outside the places for us. And not without some controversy too.

https://twitter.com/Top100Rick/status/1624793261545070593?s=20

Over the past two years, Xander ranks out 2nd of all PGA Tour players with over 300 measured approach shots 200+ yards. He sits only behind Sungjae Im. I prefer Xander for a couple reasons.

First, there are couple of par 4s here under 400 yards where Xander’s much better approach from 50-100 yards will come at an advantage. Secondly, Xander’s approach play of late has been nothing short of incredible.

Schauffele arrives here after four consecutive tournaments gaining 4+ strokes on approach. Over the last three months, Schauffele also tops the list for SG: APP in this field. He has never finished worse than 14th at a US Open, with 5/6 of those finishes an incredible 7th or better. And in his sole appearance at Bay Hill, he gained +6.5 strokes putting.

Tyrrell Hatton

Past champion Tyrrell Hatton was somewhat disappointing for us when selected last time at the Genesis Invitational. I’m willing to forgive him and go back to him here on a track obviously suited to his game. The real difficulty for Hatton last time out came simply not getting his entire game firing at the same time.

Thursday he was 14th SG: PUTT and 23rd SG: ATG, but 115th SG: APP and 91st SG: OTT.
Friday he was 27th SG: APP and 9th for SG: OTT, but 95th for SG: PUTT and 93rd SG: ATG.
Saturday he was 3rd SG: OTT, 5th SG: ATG, and 15th SG: PUTT yet 67th SG: APP.
Sunday he was 3rd SG: APP, but 46th SG: OTT, 39th SG: ATG, and 66th SG: PUTT.

You can see where I am going with this; he really just needs to put this all together at the same time and he can win. For SG: APP on shots 200+ yards, he sits 4th on the PGA Tour since 1 January 2023.

We saw shades of this at the correlated WM Phoenix Open, when finishing 6th in the elevated field. He gained a massive +6.72 SG: APP at that event and also holds a 15th in his only other appearance. Where course history matters most here, he sits 4th in this field for any golfer who has played 6 rounds or more.

I also love that last year he was one of only four golfers to shoot under par in a very windy final round. Complimenting that is a strong performance at a very windy Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which is a Rolex Series event on the DP World Tour. With wind again a factor this year, he looks a great fit on a course he loves at a reasonable price.

Tom Kim

It is easy to come up with all manner of superlatives to describe this talented 20 year old. And, equally, easy to forget how young he still is given all he has already achieved in the sport. To snag him back at a price of 50/1 is great value, especially when you consider he is shorter odds than that at all 4 majors this year.

The only reason I can think why bookmakers rate him 30% less likely to win this event than a major is driving distance. However, even this is a tenuous position. Masters typically rewards driving distance as does the US Open. Further, the main interest for me with distance comes from the approach play.

Tom Kim sits in the Top 10 of this field for SG: APP over the last 12 months. He also sits 5th on the PGA Tour over the last 2 years for SG: APP over 200+ yards. He holds onto 5th if we look at the same metric since 1 January 2023.

Given he is plenty long in this field for me, the fact he is significantly positive for driving accuracy is another big tick. Keeping on the short grass will be a big advantage here if hitting approach shots from distance. We all know what he can do with the putter, including during the Presidents Cup hosted at Quail Hollow which features similar greens to here.

Gary Woodland – Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Value

As mentioned in the preamble, Woodland really should have won this tournament for us last year. Holding a one stroke lead with two holes to play, a double bogey-bogey finish in the wind was a disappointing end to an overall valiant effort.

Woodland’s approach play looks to be back to its best of late. He arrives here ranked 5th for SG: APP over the last 30 days. This includes gaining an insane +10.48 SG: APP in his last tournament. That sat only behind winner Jon Rahm and Luke List, with a substantial distance to the pack. To secure him here again at 80/1, as we did last year, seems a steal for a golfer whose two most recent victories have come at the correlated US Open and WM Phoenix Open.

The issue for Woodland, as it is in most cases, will come down to the putter. The fact he has gained strokes putting here in 4/5 of his most recent appearances makes this one of the better spots for him.

Patrick Rodgers

We enter the somewhat speculative plays, but hopefully with sufficient equity in the top finishes markets to justify a couple of flyers here. Rodgers heads those picks. Data Golf currently have Rodgers ranked as 59th in the world versus an OWGR of 140th. Disparities like that often have a way of eventually correcting themselves, and it could well be here.

Rodgers has a decent record at Bay Hill, making 6/7 cuts and finishing 7th in 2018. Correlated form includes 14th, 16th, and 17th at TPC Scottsdale and a perfect record of made cuts in the US Open.

Patrick Rodgers arrives here hitting his long irons well, sitting in the Top 10 on the PGA Tour for SG: APP 200+ yards since 1 January 2023. He has plenty of driving distance and consistently gains strokes both ATG and putting. This includes gaining SG: Putt in 6/7 appearances here.

Rodgers was T11 in round 4 scoring here in 2022, which was played in those torrid windy conditions. Recent correlated form of 14th at the WM Phoenix Open elevated event suggests the 175/1 price is simply too long.

Will Gordon

Finally, we round out this week’s selections with another dive down the board to Will Gordon. The PGA Tour returnee had a stellar amateur career and holds some good correlating form on Florida tracks particularly from the Korn Ferry Tour.

Gordon has gained strokes on approach and driving accuracy in four straight events. He sits 30th for SG: APP and 40th for SG: PUTT in this field over the last 30 days. But it is again the long iron performance which holds the most appeal. Gordon currently sits 17th on the PGA Tour over the last 12 months for SG: APP over 200+ yards. Having gained on the field for driving distance at every event since March 2022, he does so without often compromising driving accuracy so ticks the SG: OTT box in a big way.

His sole appearance here came in 2021 during his first full season. It was a tough year for him in general, so the 49th finish should be read in the light of coming during a weak period of form. Rather, I’ll focus on the positive that he gained +4.00 SG: PUTT during the tournament to sit 12th in that metric. Arriving here with much improved approach play and undoubtedly a more rounded player, he is worth a gamble at huge odds.

For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

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PGAPremium

DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for the Honda Classic

cdenny99@hotmail.com
written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to the PGA National Course and The Honda Classic DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. The field (course) is much tougher than the field playing on it. PGA National is the #1 most difficult course on the schedule for approach shots further than 150 yards. Wedge play is pretty much non existent with only 10% of the shots coming from 125 yards or closer. Golfers with a good short game on bermuda should do well. The Honda Classic DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are designed to give you the leverage, value and pivot plays to help you move up the leaderboard to position yourself for a takedown.

Recent Results

Last week we had Kevin Tway as our Frisky Biscuit. He made the cut and finished top 40! That’s not bad for a golfer that only 1% rostered and cost a paltry 6200 in salary. 99% of the contest participants missed out on him, Win Daily Sports did not. Solid gold. Last Saturday night we put out Theegala, Cantlay and Svennson for Sundays showdown. They went -13 collectively and brought outstanding value. This brings our record to 29-7 for picking golfers that no one wants or are afraid to roster.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “Green” for a free test drive to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. It’s an unbelievable 5.99 a week to subscribe and get this amazing access.

The Course – The Field

This tourney isn’t easy. Water surrounds most of the holes and tight sight lines demand precision shots. The average score at the cut has been over par for the last decade. The average score for the field has been Even par and the winning score has been -10 or lower for eight of the last ten years. Expect the same or worse with the talent level this week.

Whether to trust the Weather

At present the weather is calling for higher than normal temperatures plus humidity. Winds don’t seem to be a factor for the first two days. Please check with the Win Daily Sports Discord later tonight for up to the minute weather changes.

Targets and Traps

I will be keying on ownership again for this watered down field. There are 90 players in the 6K range. Ninety. That shows how un-elite this field is. Of those 90, 12-17% will make the cut which means 15 and 1/3 6K golfers make it to the weekend. We will give that 1/3rd to JB Holmes, he can afford to have it sliced off. Everyone will be on the top tier names, it’s the unknowns that will ultimately win you the contests.

Min Woo Lee is an incredibly high 9400 salary and yet he is gaining steam in almost every market, probably due to the fact he has made the cut in all majors and plays tough courses well, although he has missed the cut here. Lowry, Kuchar, and Wise will also be popular. We are looking at Pendrith, Gordon, Riley, Barnes, Stevens, Cole and others for mid and low end value.

Others we are tracking include the Coody brothers, Pierceson and Cody. They are twins. Charles Coody, a Masters Champion golfer, is their proud grandfather. They both brought home the 2022 national Championship for The Texas Longhorns. They also both broke their right arms, in the same spot, on the same day, running sprints after golf practice and crashing into the gym wall. Pierceson is the more polished golfer and Cody won his qualifier on Monday to gain entry this week. They are in a pool that the frisky biscuit will come from.

Lets take a look at The Honda Classic DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
Im, Sungjae39.810700
Wise, Aaron24.69200
Lee, Min Woo21.49400
Lowry, Shane20.310400
Vegas, Jhonattan19.68600
McCarthy, Denny17.69100
Griffin, Ben16.87900
Poston,  JT16.48800
Kucher, Matt15.89300
Buckley, Hayden15.87600
Kirk, Chris14.99900
An, Byeong14.87600
Pendrith, Taylor 13.98900
Svensson, Adam13.88700
Meronk, Adrian13.68300
Horschel, Billy13.59700
Detry,Thomas 13.49000
Bramlett, Joseph13.47500
Gordon, Will13.37500
Hodges, Lee 12.97700
Jaeger, Stephan 12.27800
Rai, Aaron11.47700
Shelton, Robby11.37800
Davis, Cameron11.28100
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)11.27400
Hardy, Nick9.77500
Willett, Danny8.87400
Wu, Brandon 8.87300
English, Harris8.68400
Riley, Davis 8.37400
Straka, Sepp7.48500
Palmer, Ryan6.97400
Frittelli, Dylan6.67100
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan6.48200
Harrington, Padraig5.97300
Taylor, Ben5.97200
Tarren, Callum5.87100
Hubbard, Mark5.87000
Schenk, Adam5.77200
Sigg, Greyson 5.57200
Van Rooyen, Erik5.47300
Knox, Russell5.37200
Suh, Justin 4.97600
Stevens, Sam4.87000
Baddeley, Aaron4.57000
Hoffman, Charley4.17300
Higgo, Garrick3.88000
Malnati, Peter3.87100
Long, Adam3.77200
Simpson, Webb3.67300
Tway, Kevin2.96900
Martin, Ben2.86900
Barnes, Erik2.66700
Hall, Harry2.47100
Cole, Eric2.46900
Donald, Luke2.37000
Kodaira, Satoshi2.36700
Higgs, Harry2.27000
Duncan, Tyler2.26600
Schwab, Matthias 2.17000
Hickok, Kramer2.16900
Wallace, Matt2.16900
Johnson, Zack2.07100
Kim, Michael1.96900
Yuan, Carl1.86800
Novak, Andrew1.86700
Bhatia, Akshay 1.76800
Eckroat, Austin 1.66700
Schmid, Matthias (Matti)1.46800
Armour, Ryan1.36700
Dufner, Jason1.36600
Wu, Dylan1.16600
Moore, Ryan0.96800
Percy, Cameron0.96400
Hadley, Chesson0.86800
O’Hair, Sean0.86600
Coody, Pierceson 0.76800
Lingmerth, David0.76600
Stuard, Brian0.76500
Grant, Brent0.76400
Daffue, MJ0.66800
Duo, Zecheng0.66700
Lebioda, Hank0.66600
Cook, Austin0.66500
Alexander, Tyson0.66400
Stroud, Chris0.66200
Norlander, Henrik0.56500
Goya, Tano0.46600
Nunez, Augusto0.46400
Westmoreland, Kyle0.46300
Noh, Seung-Yul0.36500
Silverman, Ben0.36500
Streb, Robert0.36400
Blixt, Jonas0.36300
Sabbatini, Rory0.36200
Kozan, Andrew 0.36000
Redman, Doc0.26600
Walker, Jimmy0.26500
Blair, Zac0.26300
Garnett, Brice0.26300
Trainer, Martin0.26300
Haas, Bill0.26100
Byrd, Jonathan0.26100
Thompson, Curtis0.26000
Norrman, Vincent0.16500
Ramey, Chad0.16400
Haley II, Paul0.16400
Endycott, Harrison0.16400
Gomez, Fabian0.16300
Brown, Scott0.16300
Kang, Sung0.16300
Echavarria, Nico0.16300
Holmes, JB0.16200
Villegas, Camilo0.16200
Harrington, Scott0.16200
Werenski, Richy0.16200
Werbylo, Trevor0.16200
Herman, Jim0.16100
McGirt, William0.16100
Chalmers, Greg0.16100
Gay, Brian0.16100
Gligic, Michael0.16100
Cone, Trevor0.16100
Roy, Kevin0.16100
Stanley, Kyle0.16000
Atwal, Arjun0.16000
Coody, Parker 0.16000
Landry, Andrew0.06200
Kraft, Kelly0.06200
Drewitt, Brett0.06200
Gerard, Ryan0.06200
Gribble, Cody0.06100
Brehm, Ryan0.06100
Ogilvy, Geoff0.06000
Crane, Ben0.06000
Albertson, Anders0.06000
Crowe, Trace0.06000
Matthews, Brandon0.06000
McGreevy, Max0.06000
Collet, Tyler0.06000
Young, Carson0.06000
Byrd, Marcus0.06000

These figures for The Honda Classic DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 17:58 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My picks for The Honda Classic

Top Tier: Wise

Mid Tier: Pendrith

Low Tier: Hardy

Out in Left Play: Stevens

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Riley

FR Leader: Harrington (contrarian)

What to Watch

Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. They provide you with the tools to learn how to make money. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, do not miss The Bettor Golf podcast! No one works harder than Spencer and Stix on bringing you imbedded trusted intel week after week.

The Premier Live Stream

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel (whose address is Fort Knox ll) and featuring Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s back to the familiar time slot at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. Show up, tune in, and help yourself and your audience win the week with the best team on the board!

The snake draft format allows the elite Win Daily golf staff to give in depth analysis on top plays and some choice value and leverage plays you wouldn’t normally see.

Last week at Riviera, Tiger Woods kept out distancing JT by 20-30 yards on every hole. As they were walking up the last hole, Tiger discreetly tried to hand him something. It was a Tampax Tampon. Brutal.

Rory said he had to ramp up his smack talk since he was paired with them. All three are known for their searing commentary on the course and about their playing partners, giving as much as they get. It has been that way for many decades. A close up H/D camera caught the wrapped item and chaos erupted.

Tiger ended up apologizing in front of the media. LPGA golfers jumped on him for the perceived slight, though it had absolutely nothing to do with lady golfers. Sprinter Michael Johnson of Olympic track fame called him teflon, as if everything rolls off of him. I’m not sure I would jump in that arena. I’m old enough to remember those solid gold shoes Michael wore when he raced. Usain Bolt broke all his records and wore plain sneakers. Also, when was the last time Michael Johnson was in the news and relevant to social media? Exactly.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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PGAPremium

DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections for the Genesis Invitational

cdenny99@hotmail.com
written by cdenny99@hotmail.com

Welcome to Riviera Golf Course and The Genesis DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. During the riveting Phoenix Open last week I heard a magnificent roar go up. I saw tons of adult beverages being hurtled onto the course and just knew a golfer had just aced the 16th hole. Nope. It was the news that the cat in the hat is back. Tiger will be teeing it up this week. Here kitty kitty.

Tonight the new Netflix documentary “Full Swing” debuts about pro golfers and their more private moments. In one of the segments Justin Thomas and Jordan Speith are on an exclusive private jet looking for a golf course to dominate. They are playing a card game where they have to guess what the next card is, and they are playing for $1000.00 per each card turn, which means $52,000.00 a deck. If you figure a three hour flight, that means they are playing for well over a million per flight. In order to play for those kind of stakes you need a whale bankroll. The Genesis DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections can help you with those six and seven figure takedowns to take a seat next to JT and Jordan and play for the big bucks.

Recent Results

Last week we had Mark Hubbard as our biscuit. He played like left over cream gravy that you dump down the sink. When the Win Daily Sports Golf Staff came up with the idea of featuring a 6K player with absurdly low ownership that had to make the cut AND bring value and leverage, we knew we had picked the hardest, toughest, and most nerve racking test of any group.

Sia built an impressive record with his “Secret Weapon” plays and we are continuing that tradition with the Frisky Biscuit. This brings our updated record to 25-7 for golfers that are in the 6K salary range that most players find impossible to roster. These types of plays can put you in contention to be the heroes that gets you extra zeros.

At Win Daily Sports we know the only work that pays off is hard work! Use promo code “Green” for a free test drive to access the best intel with shows, podcasts, articles and expert chat in Discord to get your DFS bankroll rolling. It’s an unbelievable 5.99 a week to subscribe and get this amazing access.

The Course – The Field

This tourney will be tougher. It’s designated as an elevated event which means a strong field. You have narrow fairways that end up at poa-annua greens with bunkers and an unforgiving rough. There are only four reasonable scoring holes, the three par 5’s and the drivable par four 10th. Expect the final winning score to be in the low teens. That means approach and ARG are in play, and history tells us the longer hitters do better. The average final scores for the field will be -2 to -5, and the average cutline will be from +1 to +4. These are 10 year averages.

Whether to trust the Weather

At present the weather is calling for very cold temperatures on Thursday morning, and the possibility of winds to 17 on Friday afternoon. Note that poa-annua blooms in the afternoon so the greens will be a bit bumpier. There is a tiny edge to Thurs pm and Fri am but I wouldn’t replace a golfer based on the weather. Please check on updates tonight in the Win Daily Sports discord.

Targets and Traps

I will be keying on ownership again for this top heavy loaded field with the players having the biggest gorilla in golf on their backs. His name is Eldrid Tiger Woods. At 7300 he will be owned. Xander is currently the best driver in the top range along with Rahm and you have to respect Max Homa, who is returning to California where he has been solid. We are on Homa and have an overweight position. With his salary and his competition range he will be lower owned. Rory is probably solid although he can get a little sideways with the driver sometimes.

Others we are tracking include Hovland, Hedeki, Fitzpatrick, Hadwin, Conners, (pivot off T Montgomery) Si Woo Kim, Mitchell, Harman, K H Lee, Noren,

Lets take a look at The Genesis DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections. These projections are designed to allow you to pivot off chalk and hit high leverage and value for your rostered teams.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYEROWN %SALARY
McIlroy, Rory22.610500
Finau, Tony21.39500
Cantlay, Patrick19.49000
Schauffele, Xander18.79900
Rahm, John18.511100
Hovland, Viktor16.28900
Thomas, Justin15.710100
Scott,Adam15.48000
Scheffler, Scottie15.310700
Morikawa, Collin14.89300
Montgomery, Taylor14.37600
Fitzpatrick, Mathew14.28300
Homa, Max13.99700
Young, Cameron13.88800
Spieth, Jordan13.38600
Hatton, Tyrrell13.18100
Bradley, Keegan12.67700
Day, Jason12.58400
Matsuyama, Hideki12.38200
Noren, Alex11.97300
Rodgers, Patrick10.87000
Kim, Tom (Joohyung) 10.78500
Im, Sungjae10.69400
Zalatoris,Will10.58700
Fleetwood, Tommy10.27300
Burns, Sam9.79100
Harman, Brian9.67500
Moore, Taylor9.47200
Lee, KH9.37400
Clark, Wyndham9.27800
Hadwin, Adam9.17500
Fowler, Rickie8.97900
Power, Seamus8.87700
Theegala, Sahith8.47800
Rose, Justin8.38000
Mitchell, Keith8.27500
Kim, Si Woo6.97900
Vegas, Jhonattan6.36900
Detry,Thomas 6.27100
Herbert, Lucas 5.77200
Taylor, Nick5.67400
Buckley, Hayden5.47000
Conners, Corey5.17600
Hossler, Beau4.97200
Stallings, Scott4.87100
Henley, Russell4.77400
Poston,  JT4.67300
Lowry, Shane4.57400
Horschel, Billy4.47200
Smalley, Alex 4.36900
Ryder, Sam4.26700
Davis, Cameron4.07000
Hoge, Tom3.97300
Meronk, Adrian3.96900
List, Luke3.86800
Tarren, Callum3.86300
McCarthy, Denny3.77200
Dahmen, Joel3.67000
Hardy, Nick3.46900
Kucher, Matt3.37100
Kim, SH (Seonghyeon)2.96700
Hodges, Lee 2.66200
Jaeger, Stephan 2.46500
Griffin, Lanto2.46500
Woods, Tiger2.37300
Hahn, James2.36700
Spaun, JJ2.27000
Taylor, Ben2.26400
Woodland, Gary2.17000
Putnam, Andrew2.06900
Kitayama, Kurt 1.97100
Bezuidenhout, Christiaan1.86800
Frittelli, Dylan1.86500
NeSmith, Matthew1.76400
Todd, Brendon1.46800
Wu, Brandon 1.36700
Hughes, Mackenzie1.36600
Grillo, Emiliano1.26900
Thompson, Davis 1.26700
Sigg, Greyson 1.16600
Lipsky, David1.06500
Laird, Martin0.96600
Rai, Aaron0.96600
Cink, Stewart0.96300
Straka, Sepp0.86800
Suh, Justin 0.86700
Molinari, Francesco0.76800
Knox, Russell0.76500
Lee, Danny0.76300
Schenk, Adam0.66400
Donald, Luke0.66200
English, Harris0.56800
Svensson, Adam0.56500
Piercy, Scott0.56200
Mullinax, Trey0.46700
Champ, Cameron0.46500
Lashley, Nate0.46300
Tway, Kevin0.46200
Nakajima, Keita 0.46200
Duncan, Tyler0.46000
Kisner, Kevin0.36600
Willett, Danny0.36400
Reavie, Chez0.36400
Kizzire, Patton0.36400
Lower, Justin0.36300
Streelman, Kevin0.36200
Hadley, Chesson0.36200
Hubbard, Mark0.36200
Glover, Lucas0.36100
Kraft, Kelly0.36100
Holmes, JB0.36000
Wallace, Matt0.26600
Long, Adam0.26400
Merritt, Troy0.26300
Thompson, Michael0.26300
Malnati, Peter0.26300
Ghim, Doug0.26100
Streb, Robert0.26000
Ramey, Chad0.16100
Brehm, Ryan0.16100
Schwab, Matthias 0.16100
Redman, Doc0.16100
Kim, Yeong-Su0.16100
Watney, Nick0.16000
Hickok, Kramer0.16000
Smotherman, Austin0.16000
McGreevy, Max0.06000
Byrd, Marcus0.06000
Wall, Jack (a)0.06000

These figures for The Genesis DFS DraftKings Ownership Projections are accurate as of 18:26 EST. The higher tier golfers may/will show a higher percentage by lock.

My picks for The Genesis

Top Tier: Xander

Mid Tier: Sungae IM

Low Tier: Stallings

Out in Left Play: Vegas

Our Frisky Biscuit Play will be in Discord later Tonight ! *Risky*

FR Leader: Homa

FR Leader: Hossler (contrarian)

What to Watch

Stix and Spencer of The Bettor Golf Podcast (powered by Win Daily Sports) are available on Anchor at Spotify, Apple and other channels. Stix’s hammer plays hits almost every single week and Spencer has the most comprehensive program breakdowns in the industry. They provide you with the tools to learn how to make money. For the best edge in the betting market and for outstanding DFS position and placement content, do not miss The Bettor Golf podcast! No one works harder than Spencer and Stix on bringing you intrinsic value week after week.

Instead of a “hammer kid” play, both Spencer and Stix got hammered at a posh Las Vegas casino last weekend. The one armed bandits were kind to Stix and he flew home a winner, albeit a queasy winner, that’s what happens when you hit up White Castle at 3:30 am and have a flight out a couple of hours later.

The Premier Live Stream

Don’t forget to tune in to The PGA DraftCast, hosted by Joel and featuring Sia, Spencer, and the man, Deep Dive Dave and the surprise guest who drops by to battle you, the audience, for supremacy on the draft board. It’s back to the familiar time slot at 9:00 EST on Tuesday nights and is fun, engaging and educational. Show up, tune in, and help yourself and your audience win the week with the best team on the board!

The snake draft format allows the elite Win Daily golf staff to give in depth analysis on value plays and some choice sleepers!

Last night we missed the special Valentine guest on the DraftCast as her flight was re routed. It had to be Southwest. I remember in the Marines we used to fly from the east coast 2MARDIV to Quantico on Piedmont Air. The seats were basically lawn chairs chained to the floor and cokes were 1.50. You had to put the money in a can next to the styrofoam cooler filled with ice and canned Coke. When I was in jump school one of the Marines asked the Jumpmaster what happens when the chute doesn’t open. He said, “don’t worry about it, besides, you don’t need a parachute to go skydiving. You only need a parachute to go skydiving twice.”

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

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