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DeAndre Hopkins

Welcome to the Week 8 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

We are getting close to the midway point of the 2022 season.  It’s been an exciting one folks.  This was one of those weird weeks where almost all of the chalk hit.  Guys like Alvin Kamara, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, D’Onta Foreman all had monster days, just as they were expected to. 

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig into individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

Tyreek Hill did everything but score a touchdown this weekend.  He was the most heavily targeted person in all of football in Week 8.  Hill was targeted 14 times and ended up catching 12 of them for 188 yards receiving.  He has 42 targets over the last 3 weeks and only has 2 games this season with less than 10 targets. 

This was also Hill’s fourth time going over 160 receiving yards this season.  There is no player in the NFL with the sheer upside that Hill has.  Up next will be a much tougher task for the Hill and the Dolphins.  The Bears have been one of the better teams in defending the pass. 

Another player that has as much upside in the league as anyone is DeAndre Hopkins.  Playing in only his second game of the season, Hopkins had a monster game.  He was targeted 13 times this weekend and was able to catch 12 of them for 159 yards and 1 touchdown.  That was Hopkins’ first touchdown of the season.  Hopkins and his teammates will have a tough go at it next weekend as they’ll face off against the Seahawks.  Another team that has been very good at defending the pass. 

What a first quarter for A.J. Brown!  This was the Brown the Eagles expected when they traded for him this off-season.  Brown had arguably his best game for the Birds as he caught 6 of his 11 targets for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns.  The 156 yards were the most he’s had this season, as were the 3 touchdowns.  The 3 touchdowns more than doubled his season total, now at 5.  Next will be a matchup vs. the Texans, a team that has done fairly well defending against wide receivers. 

Running Back Targets

Alvin Kamara was the chalk running back going into Week 8 and he did not disappoint.  He was the most heavily targeted running back at 10 targets.  He was also the only running back with double-digit targets, a theme we have seen often this season for running backs.  Kamara converted 9 of those 10 targets into catches for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The targets, receptions, and yards were all season-highs for the Saints running back. 

Tight End Targets

For a second consecutive week, tight ends played a lesser role in the passing game for teams.  Only Tyler Conklin of the New York Jets had double-digit targets.  He led all tight ends with 10 targets in Week 8.  Conklin caught 6 of the 10 targets and finished with 79 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The 79 yards were the most he’s had since Week 3 against Cincy and his 2 touchdowns were the first ones since Week 1 vs. Baltimore. 

Conklin has now been targeted at least 7 times in 4 of his team’s 8 games.  Up for the Jets in Week 9 will be the Bills.  The Jets will surely be passing quite a bit in that one, leading to more targets for Conklin. 

Quarterback Target Share

Now that Christian McCaffrey is in San Francisco, we’re going to see a shift in the way they pass the ball.  That was evident in Week 8 as nearly half of Jimmy Garoppolo’s passes went to his running backs.  Jimmy G only threw the ball 26 times, but 11 went to his running backs.  9 of them specifically went to McCaffrey as he was the leading target monster on the 49ers this weekend. 

Even though Mark Andrews went down early, Lamar Jackson still heavily used his tight ends in the passing game.  It’s just something he feels more comfortable doing, especially with his top receiver in Bateman out.  Isaiah Likely was second on the Ravens in targets this weekend with 7.  13 of Jackson’s 34 passes went to his tight ends. 

Then we have Tua Tagovailoa.  Tua threw the ball 34 times in Week 8.  80% of those passes went to his wide receivers.  The combo of Hill and Waddle accounted for 23 of the 34 passes.  Only 6 of Tua’s passes were spread between his tight ends and running backs. 

Running Back Touches

Get used to it folks.  As long as the Titans play, Derrick Henry will be numero uno in terms of carries.  I mentioned it last week, but the Titans are slowly beefing up the workload for Henry.  After topping out at a season-high 30 carries last week, he got it all the way up to 32 this week.  He did some amazing things with those 32 carries as he finished with over 200 rushing yards, something he hadn’t done since the 2020 season.  He also finished with a pair of rushing touchdowns.  The Titans’ offense runs through Henry.  Up next will be a tough test against the Chiefs. 

With Christian McCaffrey shipped off to greener pastures in San Francisco and Chubba Hubbard out, D’Onta Foreman was a chalk running back on Sunday.  He did not disappoint.  Foreman finished with a season-high 26 carries and for the second straight week finished with 118 rushing yards.  Unlike last week though, he made the most out of those 118 yards and found the end zone 3 times. 

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

I mentioned it in the running back section, but the Titans’ offense runs entirely through Derrick Henry.  The Titans ran 53 plays this weekend, 48 of which were run plays.  85% of the Titans’ plays this weekend were runs, a trend we’ll continue to see as long as Ryan Tannehill is out. 

On the opposite side, we have the Bengals.  With the Bengals down the entire game and Joe Mixon being essentially useless last night, Joe Burrow was forced to throw the ball 35 times.  77% of the Bengals’ play last night were pass plays.  They had just a crushing defeat last night, dropping them to a game behind the Baltimore Ravens for first place in the AFC North. 

Make sure to check out all of our NFL articles here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 14 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 14 NFL DFS MVP ca...

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 11 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 11 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Kyler Murray (DK $19,500, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Russell Wilson (DK $17,700, FD $16,500)

Contrarian #1: DK Metcalf (DK $15,300, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #2: DeAndre Hopkins (DK $16,200, FD $13,500)

DK CPT Punt Options: Freddie Swain ($1,800) & Andy Isabella ($3,000)

There are some pricing discrepancies between FanDuel and DraftKings this week that we can take advantage of – in both cash games and tournaments – but the overriding theme this week will be squeezing in both QBs if we can. That’s a hard task, but I think that’s the best cash game strategy and a viable plan for GPPs.

The chalk on both sites is Kyler Murray, and a quick glance at his game logs tells us why he’s top dog emcee: he hasn’t scored fewer than 24.12 DK points in any game this season and he’s already racked up 2,375-17-8 passing and 604 rushing yards with 10 scores (!) on the ground. Only the Bengals offer a more favorable QB matchup than Seattle, which means he could have one of his highest game totals of the season.

Russell Wilson took a step back in Week 10 with just 12.92 DK points against the Rams, but his fantasy resume is just as impressive, with his previous lowest DK point total (24.9) coming in a Week 4 matchup against an upstart Miami defense that’s been mazing in 2020.

The biggest injury situations to monitor are in both backfields, but Arizona’s Chase Edmonds and Seattle’s Carlos Hyde (full practice participant on Tuesday) are my favorite RB options on both teams. If Chris Carson (foot) can go for the Seahawks that does complicate things a bit, but Hyde had a solid game vs. Arizona in Week 7, is absent an official injury designation heading into Thursday night and offers a pretty nice combination of blocking and receiving skills that will be needed in this game.

Carson’s availability won’t be determined until close to game time, but I’m fading him because foot injuries are easy to exacerbate, and we’ve got to take a stand somewhere. As for my dude Chase, I’m on him because I’m just not a huge fan of Kenyan Drake, regardless of if he’s 100 percent and even though he gets a pretty large snap share that often exceeds that of Edmonds. Drake’s one truly enormous game this season came against Dallas in Week 6 at the height of that team’s momentous misery.

Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (knee) is questionable but also expected to play, which slightly mars the option of punting the captain spot with super-cheap Freddie Swain for Seattle. Swain hauled in 3-37-0 on four targets last week and is an under-the-radar deep threat and high-leverage performer that Wilson looks for in the red zone. He’s definitely worth using in some GPPs, especially if Lockett is limited.  Anda Isabella is the Arizona analog to Swain – a speedburner who could break the slate with a long TD reception.

Top WR options DeAndre Hopkins (now of “Hail Murray” fame) and DK Metcalf are also worthy of using in any place they can fit, and don’t sleep on Christian Kirk, who is a worthy second fiddle on a Cards team filled with talent.

Kickers, defenses and TEs could make their way into my lineups, but only a smattering, and not in the captain spot.

Week 11 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Count on this to be low-scoring. The projected total sits at 57 and we could easily see this be a 37-31 type of game.

DO: Get plenty of both sides in this game. I just don’t see either team dominating to the point where a 5-to-1 build makes a lot of sense.

DON’T: Forget about the “other” Cards receivers, including Larry Fitzgerald. The NFL legend had 8-62-0 against the Seahawks in Week 7, his best output of the season thus far.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Kyler Murray
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. DK Metcalf
  4. DeAndre Hopkins
  5. Christian Kirk
  6. Carlos Hyde (if Chris Carson is inactive)
  7. Chase Edmonds
  8. Tyler Lockett (questionable)
  9. Kenyan Drake
  10. Larry Fitzgerald
  11. Andy Isabella
  12. Chris Carson (risk-reward)
  13. David Moore (higher if Lockett limited)
  14. Freddie Swain (risky GPP)
  15. Greg Olsen
  16. Jason Myers
  17. Dan Arnold
  18. Zane Gonzalez
  19. Cards DST
  20. Seahawks DST
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The NFL DFS season continues with the second of two Monday night showdowns, and we’ll help you win big money in the final Week 6 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Kyler Murray (DK $18,600, FD $16,500)

Pivot: DeAndre Hopkins (DK $16,800, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Ezekiel Elliott (DK $15,900, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #2: Andy Dalton (DK $14,400, FD $12,500)

The Cowboys are favored in this game – largely because most of the skill position weapons that helped Dak Prescott put up gaudy numbers for the first few weeks will be available to Andy Dalton as well. But just as the Cowboys have struggled with injuries to their offensive line and the season-ending injury to Prescott, the Cards defense will also be without one of their best players in Chandler Jones (torn biceps).

The Cowboys have had a difficult time stopping anyone, so the task of containing Kyler Murray will be nearly impossible – making the second-year star the likely chalk as showdown captain. He and DeAndre Hopkins should have a field day against the porous Dallas secondary, though I expect production from all the Cards WRs in this one.

One of the keys for Dallas will be establishing the running game, which should mean 20+ carries for Ezekiel Elliott. The elite Cowboys RB is still a dangerous weapon as both a rusher and receiver, and the Cards have struggled against opposing RBs, who are averaging 106.8 rushing yards and 50.8 receiving yards per game in 2020. Standout defensive backs Budda Baker and Patrick Peterson may limit the effectiveness of the Dallas WR corps a bit, but the Cards’ front seven will have a tough time with Zeke.

This should be a relatively high-scoring game, and if I had to pick a Cowboys WR to spend up on, it would be CeeDee Lamb. The rookie WR already has 29-433-2 on 40 targets through five games, and he seems to get better every week.

Week 6 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Focus too much on the defenses. There’s certainly pick-six leverage in this matchup, but both units are banged up and there’s just no reason to believe either defense can be dominant.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about Larry Fitzgerald. He saw seven targets last week and has yet to score a TD in 2020. This could be the week.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Kyler Murray
  2. DeAndre Hopkins
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. CeeDee Lamb
  5. Andy Dalton
  6. Christian Kirk
  7. Amari Cooper
  8. Dalton Schultz
  9. Kenyan Drake
  10.  Chase Edmonds
  11.  Larry Fitzgerald
  12.  Greg Zuerlein
  13.  Michael Gallup
  14.  Zane Gonzalez
  15.  Andy Isabella
  16.  Cedric Wilson
  17.  Cardinals DST
  18.  Cowboys DST
  19.  Tony Pollard
  20.  Darrell Daniels
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@StixPicks 2020 Wide Receiver Evaluation

Michael Rasile is joined by Nick Bretwisch to look at and discuss 2020 wide receiver evaluation. Nick breaks down the top 30 thoroughly to give an understanding of who you should be looking to grab and who not to touch. They then look at the upside players towards the end of your draft to make sure that you’ll have some potential on your bench.

Understanding who is being drafted where is something that will help you decided when it’s time to draft an elite wide receiver or when you should wait. With running back being very thin and wide receiver being very thick, we run through the top 60 giving insight on who else you may be able to grab instead.

The great debate of which Tampa Bay wide receiver to take might be just as exciting as if we forgot about how good AJ Green was.

Listen to the episode below and don’t forget to subscribe and leave a 5 star review

You can also listen on these platforms
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
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Follow Nick -> https://twitter.com/StixPicks

Check out Nick’s articles on Win Daily Sports -> https://windailysports.com/author/nbretwisch/

Check out the QB Evaluation and RB Evaluation

Win Daily Sports Discord Chat -> https://discord.com/invite/KEFD2Kr

Make sure to follow Win Daily, too!
https://www.instagram.com/windaily/
https://twitter.com/windailysports
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCY2I3VNyf_dtW-2xl5vwv0Q
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Welcome to my preview for the Divisional Weekend DFS slate. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).

Divisional Weekend DFS – Minnesota at San Francisco – 4:35 PM EST Opening Line: 49ers -6 | Over/Under 45

The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 45 in total and is up to 44 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 256 games where the closing line favored the home team by 6 to 8 points. In these games: The team like San Francisco won the game 184 times (71.9%). The team like Minnesota won the game 71 times (27.7%). The team like Minnesota did better against the spread, going 128-116-12 (52.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.5 points.

Quarterbacks

From a quick glance, these quarterbacks look like some of the least appealing on the slate. Kirk Cousins ($5,700/$7,600) will be facing off versus a vicious 49ers defensive front that is getting healthier. Cousins played well last week, but still only ended up with 13.58 fantasy points. So even if Cousins can duplicate is efforts from last week, that may not translate to fantasy success. Of the two quarterbacks, I prefer Jimmy Garroppolo ($5,600/$7,800) who is the cheaper quarterback on DraftKings but only as a target in larger-field GPPs. Minnesota is down a lot of cornerbacks and its weaknesses are in its secondary. The 49ers this season have averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt which ranks second-best in the NFL.

Defenses

For defenses overall on this slate, the Vikings DST ($2,700/$3,700) seems like the safest pay-down option. They have scored at least eight fantasy points over six straight weeks. The 49ers DST ($3,000/$4,600) I would only play on DraftKings, as the clear-cut choice for best pay-up DST is Kansas City ($3,200/$4,200) on FanDuel.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,000/$8,000) arguably is the best running back on the Divisional DFS Weekend slate especially on FanDuel where he is only the third-highest price running back. He is seeing and touching the ball too much to not have him as a core piece in your lineups. As for the 49ers backfield, Raheem Mostert ($5,800/$6,700) is the lead back, but with the other SF running backs healthy, I am sure they will cut into his production. I would prefer to use some more salary and pay up to get to Damien Williams ($6,000/$6,900) who should see more touches and is just $200 more on both sites. The Vikings defense is not good at defending running backs in the passing game, so on DraftKings, Matt Breida ($3,300/$5,000) is an interesting name to consider, because there is a chance they have been saving him for the playoffs.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

There’s no tougher matchup for George Kittle ($6,200/$7,400) than his spot this week. No team has been better other than the Green Bay Packers versus tight ends over the last four weeks of the season. We saw it last with Jared Cook as well who went just five receptions for 54 yards. That being said you need Kittle to smash in this spot, and at his price, it might just make more sense to have more exposure for Travis Kelce ($6,400)/$7,500).

For the Minnesota receivers, both have now popped up on the injury report which means I am limiting my exposure to Stefon Diggs ($5,600/$6,800). He has a brutal track record of underperforming in games where he was on the injury report leading up to that game. The 49ers are strong versus deep passes and Diggs lead the NFL in yards per reception this season. In most cases, I would rather just pay-down to get to either Deebo Samuel ($5,200/$6,100) or Emmanuel Sanders ($5,400/$5,700). Samuel is cheaper on DraftKings and Sanders is cheaper on FanDuel. I like both of them in this spot versus the Minnesota secondary that is dealing with a ton of injuries. Samuel gets rushing attempts which is a plus, and Sanders is actually coming off his first bye week of the season! Remember he was traded to San Francisco after their bye week in Week 4, so he has played 17 straight weeks. He says he feels relieved and much better heading into this game after a lackluster final three-game stretch (eight receptions for 95 yards).

Adam Thielen ($6,200/$6,900) is still the receiver you want in Minnesota if he plays. Over the last four weeks, no team allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than the 49ers.

Divisional Weekend DFS – Titans @ Ravens – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: Baltimore -10 | Over/Under 48

Quarterbacks, Defenses

The line on this game has just gone down since it opened at 48 down to 46.5. Not a sign that Vegas considers this game a shootout and it should not be considering both teams want to run the football which shortens the game. But for Lamar Jackson ($8,400)/$9,400) it does not really matter. Play him in cash games, and use him in GPPs in Divisional Weekend DFS. But with which Ravens player should you pair him with? Well, the Ravens DST ($3,600/$4,800) is also in a smash spot as the Titans have allowed 3.4 sacks per game the third-highest average in the NFL.

Running Backs

Mark Ingram has been labeled day-day and I am concerned that even after a two-week absence he is not ready to go. It has been reported that he will play but there is a strong chance that he could be limited in this game, which means Gus Edwards ($4,900/$5,400) would become a lock, especially on FanDuel. In Ingram’s absence in Week 17 behind back-up offensive lineman and RG3 at quarterback versus a great Steelers’ defense Edwards did work. He carried 21 times for 130 yards. If Ingram is active I love him in GPPs. The same goes for Justice Hill ($3,900/$4,800) on FanDuel. He is way too cheap over there.

Derrick Henry ($8,200)/($9,600) looks to be really popular in this spot coming off a massive game where absolutely dominated the New England Patriots. However, he is far from a lock for me because this game script is going to be harder to project the Titans playing with a lead. He is also very expensive on both sites, so I would not be touching him heavily on DraftKings. However, you must keep in mind that the Baltimore defense is weak through its run defense. At home this season the Ravens have allowed 4.9 yards per attempt, which was worse than the Carolina Panthers. If the game script somehow goes in the Titans favor than Henry could rack up points quickly with a 25 touch workload looking very projectable. The Ravens can also be exposed versus heavier personnel packages. Versus 12-personnel Baltimore allowed a 48% success rate and 4.5 yards per attempt this season.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

I think Marquise Brown ($4,400)/$5,300) finds himself in a sweet spot on both sites. He is priced down significantly and has a massive upside that you usually cannot get from the receiver at his salary. He can help round out a GPP stack with Jackson. Also, cornerback Adoree Jackson will be returning for Tennesse but he has been dealing with a foot injury, while Brown has not been on the injury report at all this week. That despite being on it almost every week during the regular season. Mark Andrews ($5,600/$6,800) will also be good to go and the matchup is also great for him. The Titans allowed the seventh-most yards to tight ends this season and allowed Ben Watson to be second on the Patriots in receptions and yards last week. Andrews is a great pivot off Kelce/Kittle.

On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($6,000)/($7,400) had been on absolute fire but was shut down last week. I am not looking to fade Brown this week, because the Titans should be forced to throw the ball more versus the Ravens. We also got a $1,400 discount on him on DraftKings down to 6K. On the season the Ravens allowed the third-most targets, seventh-most receptions, and sixth-most red-zone targets to receivers. The Ravens also ranked number one versus the tight end, so I am looking elsewhere for a cheap tight end than in this game.

Divisional Weekend DFS – Texans @ Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 49

Quarterbacks, Defenses

When we want to target games for DFS we look for games where the totals are moving up. This is the case here with Houston @ KC, where the line opened at 49 and has moved up to 51 with the Chiefs getting two more points in the process. They are now favored by ten. Patrick Mahomes ($7,500/$8,600) is a great option in cash and GPPs if you cannot afford to pay up for Jackson. Houston was the fourth-worst ranked defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in 2019. That being said the more contrarian approach will be targeting the other QB Deshaun Watson ($6,700/$8,300). He is a nice late-swap pivot if your Mahomes lineups are not looking great after the first two games. I like the savings more on DrafKings than on FanDuel where you only shave off $300. I alluded to it earlier, but I also love the Chiefs DST ($3,200/$4,200) especially on FanDuel. Watson was sacked seven times last week and this season has been sacked an average of 3.3 times per game.

Running Back

You have to lock-in, Damien Williams. With his increased workload, and the salary he is too easy to jam into lineups. Houston on the season ranked fifth-worst versus the running back position and gave up the second-most receptions to the position.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($6,400/$7,500) is the clear-cut number one tight end option on the slate. The Texans over the last four weeks rank fourth-worst versus the position. Kelce has yet to see less than nine targets in five of his past six games. Darren Fells ($3,500/$5,200) should only be rostered if we see Jordan Akins miss again. Kansas City allowed the second-most targets to the tight end position over the 2019 season and ranked third in touchdowns at the position.

The Houston defense allows a ton of completions towards the middle of the field, but ranks fourth-best versus deep passes. However, Tyreek Hill ($7,600/$7,900) should see enough work in the slot versus Vernon Hargreaves who is one of the single-worst cornerbacks left in the NFL playoffs. Hill’s ceiling is too high to not have exposure and he should dominate. I do prioritize Kelce first in builds. I like Hill on FanDuel more where he is cheaper than DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400/$8,100). Not sure if I will be too heavy on Hopkins especially as Will Fuller ($5,000/$5,600) makes his probable return. I love Fuller in GPPs because the last time he played Kansas City he almost had three touchdowns but dropped them. Still, the plays were there, and I think in the playoffs he makes them this time around.

Divisional Weekend DFS – Seahawks @ Packers – 6:40 PM EST Opening Line: Green Bay -4.0| Over/Under 46

Quarterbacks, Defenses

Russell Wilson ($6,600)/($7,900) has struggled in his few games at Lambeau Field. Just three combined passing touchdowns and six interceptions in his three career games there. Overall versus Green Bay Wilson has never thrown for more than 225 yards or two passing touchdowns. So with the quarterbacks here I lean towards Aaron Rodgers ($6,500/$8,100) especially on DraftKings where is priced lower than Wilson. Rodgers is averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game at home this season. Green Bay is averaging over 260 passing yards per game at home this season (sixth-highest), with 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. I also think the Green Bay DST ($2,800/$4,400) is a very usable DST on DraftKings in the mid-range price. Seattle’s offensive line is really banged up. Packers ranked top-four in forced turnovers per game at home.

Running Back

Aaron Jones ($7,400/$8,200) is in a killer-spot here versus the Seahawks atrocious run defense. Over the last four weeks, they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and the most rushing touchdowns.

Pete Carroll also talked up getting more Marshawn Lynch ($4,800/$6,000) involved, which I think you need to get some exposure to especially because of Lynch’s workload near the goal line. Green Bay has allowed an average of one rushing touchdown per game, so there is a three-touchdown game in Lynch’s outcomes that needs to be accounted for.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Tyler Lockett ($6,600/$6,700) is cheaper than DK Metcalf ($6,800/$7,100) on both sites this week and I will surely be buying him at the discount. Lockett is still seeing targets; he had eight last week and not fewer than seven in the previous three.

For the value, I also love using guys like Allen Lazard ($4,500/$5,400) and Jimmy Graham ($3,300/$5,000). It’s a #revengegame for Graham and a great matchup. The Seahawks were the second-worst team versus the tight end this year only behind the Arizona Cardinals. Also, Graham is coming off his second-highest target total (seven) of the season. Speaking of targets that is also why I like Lazard. He has 17 targets in his last two games. The Seattle defense is overrated.

Image via Keith Allison

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Welcome to my preview for Wildcard Weekend DFS. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel and are presented in parentheses next to the player ie. (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).

Wildcard Weekend DFS – Buffalo @ Houston – 4:35 PM EST Opening Line: Houston -3 | Over/Under 41.5

The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 41.5 in total and is up to 42.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 326 games with over/under lines between 41.5 and 43.5. In these games: Games have gone over the line 149 times (45.7%). and under 176 times (54.0%).

Quarterbacks

From a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($6,400)/($8,100) looks like the inferior option to Josh Allen ($6,500)/($7,800) at the quarterback position. The reason being is that the matchup strongly favors Allen with the Texans ranking in the bottom-ten in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. The Houston defense as a whole is just not very good and the Bills over the past five weeks have had an extremely difficult strength of schedule. According to BuffaloBills.com, each of the Bills’ last five opponents put a top-10 NFL defense on the field (Jets 7th, Patriots 1st, Steelers 5th, Ravens 4th, Cowboys 5th) and it showed. The Bills went 2-3 down the stretch and averaged only 16 points per game. Now, the Bills go up against Houston’s defense, ranked 28th in the league and giving up 24 points per game.

However, you cannot ignore the “it” factor that Watson brings to the table in big games. Despite the fact that the Bills rank top-six versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks, Watson is an absolute smash button in GPPs. Allen is a preferred option in cash formats, but both are good options because of the rushing upside they offer. The Texans allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. Watson is also averaging over 25 fantasy points per game at home and has scored at least 19.90 fantasy points in his last five home games.

Defenses

For defenses overall on this slate, I am leaning towards the Titans DST ($2,400)/($3,600) as the pay-down option in cash formats because the Patriots offense currently is just not an offense to fear right now. I do think that the Texans DST ($2,600)/($4,100) is interesting against Josh Allen in his first NFL road playoff game. The Bills DST ($3,100)/($4,000) is also in a good spot versus the Houston Texans who with Watson can take sacks and force turnovers. In his only game versus Buffalo, Watson threw two interceptions and was sacked seven times in 2018.

Running Backs

Do not forget about 1,000-yard rusher Carlos Hyde ($5,100)/($6,400) or new bell-cow back Devin Singletary ($6,000)/($6,200). The Bills defense is weak against the run. Allowing 4.4 yards per attempt on the road this season, and just look at the production they have allowed to some backs recently. 96 rushing yards to Sony Michel, over 100 combined rushing and receiving to Ezekiel Elliott, and 100 rushing yards to both Adrian Peterson and Nick Chubb. Hyde is seeing close to 20 touches per game over the past three weeks outside Week 17.

It’s actually pretty ridiculous that Marshawn Lynch ($5,200)/($5,900) is $100 more expensive on DraftKings than Hyde. Singletary is seeing a similar workload to Hyde but sees much more work in the passing game. The Texans matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. This season Houston has allowed the second-most receptions, second-most yards, and most receiving touchdowns to the running back position.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

At the tight end position, Dawson Knox ($2,900)/($4,800) is a very cheap price on DraftKings and FanDuel. Over the last four weeks, the Texans are the fourth-worst team at defending the tight end position in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Houston secondary is also suspect at best so expect to see John Brown ($6,000)/($6,500) and Cole Beasley ($5,600)/($6,300) to be productive in this matchup. The Texans have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past two weeks. They rank seventh-worst pass defense in DVOA. For the lesser owned guys, we saw Duke Williams ($3,400)/($4,500) play really well when he was active last week, so he could see more playing time if he is active on Sunday. The same goes for DeAndre Carter ($3,400)/($4,500) who is the next man up if Stills or Fuller cannot go on Sunday.

The Bills are dealing with an injury in their secondary with their number two outside cornerback in Levi Wallace. With Tre’Davious White most likely drawing his coverage to DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700)/($8,300), that would boost the likes of both Will Fuller V ($4,900/$5,600) and Kenny Stills ($4,600/$5,800). Over the past four weeks, the Bills rank seventh-best versus the wide receiver position. Hopkins is coming off his worst game of the season so he is definitely somebody to go back to. To get an interesting stack that will be great leverage will be punting tight end with Jordan Akins ($2,800)/($4,600). He is third in routes run and targets from Weeks 14-16 over Darren Fells.

Wildcard Weekend DFS – Titans @ Patriots – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: New England -5 | Over/Under 43.5

Quarterbacks, Defenses

As a Patriots fan, I try to take my bias out when making DFS decisions. This is why I strongly feel in cash formats that paying down for the Titans DST ($2,400)/($4,100) is the best move. But in GPPs, it is worth noting that this Titans defense is not good and Tom Brady ($5,800)/($7,600) in the playoffs needs to be considered. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks.

The Ryan Tannehill ($6,300)/($7,800) breakout season also ends here. If you look at Tannehill’s games this season he has either been at home (six games) or played on the road versus a bottom-ten defense. Tannehill is an excellent quarterback at home, and that goes back to his Miami days when he won against the Patriots four different times. However, things are different when he has played on the road especially in New England where he is 0-6. Tannehill is averaging just 16.2 fantasy points per game on the road versus 24.1 points at home. Both his sub-18 points games came on the road (at IND, and at HOU), and his two better games on the road were versus Carolina and Oakland.

All those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Patriots rank number one versus the quarterback position and still have the best pass defense based on passing DVOA via FootballOutsiders. This could be the week the Patriots DST ($3,400)/($4,600) breaks the slate wide open. Tannehill has 10 interceptions and four touchdowns thrown at New England in his career.

Running Backs

The Titans matchup is also slightly better for the Patriots with them allowing the tenth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, it has really been pass-catching running backs that have done damage versus Tennesse. They have allowed the third-most receptions and targets allowed to running backs this season. Insert James White ($5,700)/($6,200) who the Patriots oftentimes like to unleash during the playoffs.

Derrick Henry ($8,200)/($9,300) looks to be really popular in this spot coming off a massive game where he saw season-highs in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing attempts. But he is far from a lock for me because the Patriots are going to sell out to stop the run, and Henry does not catch passes. So in a format like DraftKings, where receptions are so vital, he should be faded. You are hoping for touchdowns with Henry and the Patriots have allowed just one rushing touchdown to backs this season. They are allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt at home and just 3.6 rushing first downs.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Outside of Michael Thomas, the only other lock-button wide receiver has to be Julian Edelman ($6,500)/($7,000). Edelman is dealing with injuries, but still, his playoff record is astonishing. He has double-digit targets in every single playoff game he has played since 2013 (12 games). He is averaging well over 100 yards per game in his last six playoff games and has eight catches in nine of his last 11. Also, N’Keal Harry ($5,300) continues to be used more in the Patriots’ offense.

https://twitter.com/AndrewErickson_/status/1211745999510757376

On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($7,400)/($7,700) has been on absolute fire and lock-down cornerback Stephon Gillmore has shown some holes over the past two weeks. I am not looking to fade Brown, because it’s really his run after the catch ability that is why he is so good, and he is really emerging an alpha in this offense. Also, consider that Titans’ receivers have had success versus the Patriots specifically Corey Davis ($3,800). In two career games versus New England, Davis has three touchdowns, 12 receptions, and 188 receiving yards. The focus is going to be on Brown, but as seen in the video below, Jonnu Smith ($3,800)/($5,800) could expose Patriots’ safety Patrick Chung.

https://twitter.com/TDavenport_NFL/status/1212459802338701312

Wildcard Weekend DFS – Vikings @ Saints – 1:05 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 47

Quarterbacks, Defenses

The 2019 Minnesota Vikings did not beat a team with a .500 or better on the road this season. So you can play Drew Brees ($6,600)/($8,500) with a ton of confidence because he is just absolutely raking at home in the dome. But the Saints are going to make Kirk Cousins ($6,100)/($7,600) try to beat them. If you look at all the games that the Vikings have lost Cousins is averaging 35 passing attempts versus 27 in victories. So lots of passing attempts for Cousins, but against a pretty good Saints’ defense, I am not so sure he will have a great fantasy day. If anything it makes me favor the Saints DST ($3,000)/($4,700) because they will have a ton of opportunities for turnovers and sacks.

Running Back

The Vikings matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, the damage has been done in the passing game with Minnesota allowing the second-most receptions (32) to running backs over the past four weeks. Alvin Kamara ($7,400)/($8,200) should be a lock at the running back position across all lineups. I also think in GPPs pairing Latavius Murray ($5,000)/($5,700) with Kamara in a #revengegame could be nice leverage. Murray had 17 carries last week and will probably get at least one red zone look against his former team.

Dalvin Cook ($7,800)/($8,000) looks to be ready to return for the playoffs and he should also be in your lineup. The Saints run defense has been dealing with injuries, but no team has been able to expose them. I think Cook changes the narrative here.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

The one position that the Saints have been most vulnerable to is the wide receiver position. In the last four weeks, they rank fourth-worst versus the position. This is why you should be looking to roster Stefon Diggs ($6,600)/($7,300) and Adam Thielen ($6,200)/($6,200) as one-offs away from Kirk Cousins. They are better as bring back pieces in Saints’ onslaught stacks. Again also similar to Akins getting more work, this could be game where Irv Smith Jr. ($2,700)/($5,300) has a bigger role with the Vikings potentially point chasing. He is second on the team in routes run Weeks 14-16 and he was rested last week. It’s also a homecoming for Smith whose father played for the Saints so he should be amped up and ready to go.

Michael Thomas ($9,300/$8,900) is a lock and you should do whatever you can to roster him on both sites. I will say that as a value play I love Tre’Quan Smith ($4,000/$5,500) in this spot. Smith has a touchdown reception in every single home game started by Drew Brees this season. The Vikings this season have allowed the most red-zone touches, and third-most red-zone targets to opposing wide receivers this season. Not to mention Smith is coming off a season-high in targets (five), receptions (five), yards (56) while playing 62% of the snaps second to only Michael Thomas (67%). No other Saints wide receiver has caught that many passes since Ted Ginn Jr. reeled in seven passes back in Week 1.

This slate as a whole is also not filled with great options at the tight end position, but Jared Cook ($4,900)/($6,500) could stand out from the crowd here. The Vikings play a majority of a cover 2 defense which means two defenders deep with five defenders underneath. This could potentially create massive opportunities for Cook to make plays down the seam splitting those two deep defenders. Cook is arguably the Saints’ most explosive pass weapon based on 10.4 average depth of target.

Wildcard Weekend DFS – Seahawks @ Eagles – 4:40 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 46

Quarterbacks, Defenses

This is a different Eagles’ defense when they play at home. They rank second-worst in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed on the road, but at home fourth-best. They rank fourth-worst in passing yards per game but rank top four at home (under 200 passing yards/game). Lastly, they also rank bottom five in yards per pass attempt on the road, but at home are middle to the pack. So with that it in mind, I am not locking Russell Wilson ($6,800)/($7,900) as a must-play in any format especially as the most expensive quarterback.

Ultimately, I am just not sure Carson Wentz ($6,200)/($7,900) has enough firepower on offense to really have a blow-up game on Sunday. The ownership for a quarterback is going to be diluted across the board and with no rushing upside for Wentz, he is not on my radar. Seattle also ranks top-ten versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Seattle’s weakness is in their run defense.

Running Back

Over the past four weeks, the Seattle Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs; just one point per game below the Carolina Panthers atrocious run defense. They have given up eight rushing touchdowns which are tied for the most during that span. Miles Sanders ($6,200)/($7,000) is considered day to day, but when players have that condition it usually trends on them missing the next game. Boston Scott ($5,800) absolutely blew up in Sanders’ absence in Week 17, and he would continue to see heavy usage should Sanders ultimately be sidelined. Things can get tricky here because this is the last game on the slate, so you will not know if you can trust Scott if Sanders plays. You can always pivot off Sanders to DK Metcalf ($6,100)/($6,200) or just insert Boston Scott ($5,800)/($6,600). The injury surrounding Sanders could lower Scott’s ownership despite him being in a good spot. You can also pivot off Scott onto Greg Ward ($5,200)/($5,600), Dallas Goedert ($5,200)/($6,700) or one of the Seahawks backs.

Jordan Howard ($4,900)/($5,600) should also see an expanded role if Sanders’ misses which translates to me (goalline work). Considering Seattle has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns to running backs if your lineup is dead heading into the last playoff game on Sunday consider swapping to Howard. For example, if your roster Scott and Ward you could swap directly to Metcalf and Howard for the same price. Don’t also fall in the trap of playing #BeastMode when Travis Homer ($5,300)/($6,100) got the majority of usage last week.

https://twitter.com/adamlevitan/status/1211669370860167168

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

I have highlighted the fact that the Eagles play better at home, but some receivers can still run wild versus them because they are still dealing with injuries. Over the past four weeks, they still are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers with the third-most targets and fourth-most yards. Tyler Lockett ($7,200)/($7,300) and Metcalf insert here as the receivers to stack with Wilson. All-season though the Eagles have been more vulnerable on the perimeter so I prefer Metcalf with the discount. I do also really like the great value with David Moore ($3,400)/($5,100) who could be the primary number three receiver with injuries to Malik Turner and Jaron Brown.

Down the stretch, the Seahawks were one of the worst teams at defending the tight end position. So if Zach Ertz ($6,000)/($6,900) is deemed out playing Dallas Goedert would be a must. Goedert has 22 targets over the past two weeks in the absence of Ertz. According to Pro Football Doc on Twitter Ertz is not going to play. Use this information to your advantage.

https://twitter.com/ProFootballDoc/status/1211742048266547200

Image via Keith Allison

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Welcome to my preview for Saturday DFS Week 16. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all three games on Saturday. Are you ready for some Saturday DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings.

Please join Phil Naessens and I as we break down the Saturday slate on the Win Daily Podcast

Saturday DFS Week 16 – Texans @ Buccaneers – 1 PM EST Opening Line: Houston -1 | Over/Under 53

The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 53 in total and is down to 49 from Sunday. The spread has also jumped from -1 Houston to -3 Houston. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points.

Quarterbacks

From a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($7,000) and Jameis Winston ($6,900) look like the clear cut best quarterbacks on the slate. Watson is averaging 23.9 fantasy points per game and has essentially all his weapons at his disposal. He has also had 13 rushing attempts for 76 yards over the past two weeks. Watson is a great option for a cash game, but there is a chance that he may not necessarily explode in this matchup. The Tampa Bay defense has been much better over the past month. Over the past four weeks, they rank tenth-best versus the QB position in terms of fantasy points allowed. Patriots rank ninth for some perspective. This improvement has a lot to do with the improved play of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean via Pro Football Focus. Since Week 10, Dean has the No. 2 coverage grade during that time (91.0), allowing just 33.3% of targets to be completed into his coverage, while Davis ranks eighth with a coverage grade of 81.1 and his 11 forced incompletions lead the league during that time period. Dean and Davis bring two physical corners to the outside of the Bucs’ secondary.

Winston seems like the much better GPP play because of the fact that he will be without both Evans and Godwin. He has a better matchup and has essentially been lights out at home. The Texans have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback position over the past four weeks and rank third-worst overall on the season. Winston outside of Week 1 versus SF has scored at least 21 fantasy points in every single home game he has started. The lack of weapons is concerning but Winston has already come out and said he wants to get his TEs involved. Over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Perhaps Bruce Arians will build his offensive gameplan around Cameron Brate ($3,500) and O.J. Howard ($4,000).

https://twitter.com/gregauman/status/1206980103256850432

Defenses

It’s also worth mentioning that at the price the Texans ($3,200) could be heavily owned versus the Buccaneers that has been a full-proof positive strategy with Winston leading the NFL in interceptions. However, the Buccanneers ($2,300) should not be overlooked because they have the ability to generate sacks. Shaq Barrett has tied Warren Sapp for the most sacks in a single season in Tampa Bay history and leads the NFL in sacks/quarterback hits. Tampa Bay has also scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of the last four weeks. Houston has scored more than just 15 fantasy points once this season. Get Buccaneers DST exposure in GPPs especially with ownership highly favoring Watson at quarterback.

Running Backs

The Texans have allowed the most receptions to running backs, the fourth-most targets, most receiving yards, most receiving touchdowns, and second-most red-zone targets. Overall over the past four weeks, Houston has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position. So can you trust the trifecta of Ronald Jones ($4,400), Peyton Barber ($3,900), and Dare Ogunbowale ($3,300)? Arians mentioned he wanted to see more of the running backs involved in the passing game. Unfortunately dissecting which back to trust is tough because over the past two weeks Jones has eight targets with five receptions, Barber has four targets with four receptions, and Ogunbowale has six targets with six receptions. The upside still lies with Jones who owns 10.3 yards per reception this season, but Barber should be mixed in GPPs. He made a nice play on Sunday so Arians could “reward” Barber with more looks.

https://twitter.com/BrandonThornNFL/status/1206816955224772608

For the Texans, the matchup is absolute brutal versus the third-ranked defense versus the running back position allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt at home (second-best). Carlos Hyde ($5,000) has rushed for 1,000 yards this season and the Texans do have a 26-point implied team total. Hyde just has seven carries inside the 5-yard line this season. Hyde is someone to get off this week. Rather chase the upside with a Buccaneers running back.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

As I mentioned before over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Both Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight ends are worth rostering. The easiest fade is Breshad Perriman ($6,000). Coming off a three-touchdown game where he ranked fourth on the team in targets, do not chase the touchdowns in this situation. Justin Watson ($4,600) is cheaper and will probably end up being the better per dollar play to play at the wide receiver position.

https://twitter.com/draftroompod/status/1207335740704735232

As for the Texans, DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) is seeing Michael Thomas like usage in the passing game with eight targets every single week since Week 4. If you are going with Watson in cash, it just makes too much sense to pair him with Hopkins. I also love Will Fuller ($5,900) just because of the upside he brings to the Texans’ offense. Though the Buccaneers have been better versus the QB position, they still rank sixth-worst versus the wide receiver over the past four weeks. Also, Jordan Akins ($2,900) is a sneaky tight end play. Darren Fells ($3,000) has fallen behind Jordan Akins in terms of targets in recent weeks, but he remains Houston’s top tight end in terms of offensive snaps. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the fourth-worst team in terms of fantasy points allowed to the tight end position.

Saturday DFS Week 16 – Bills @ Patriots – 4:25 PM EST Opening Line: New England -6.5 | Over/Under 38.5

The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 38.5 in total and is down to 36.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 273 games where the closing line favored the home team by 5.5 to 7.5 points. In these games, the team like New England won the game 201 times (73.6%).

Quarterbacks, Defenses

Both the Bills and Patriots rank top-ten in terms of the fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Tom Brady ($5,200) is the cheapest quarterback on the slate and at home where he is averaging 20 DraftKings points per game, he should be considered for GPPs. The Bills allow the fifth-most passing attempts on the road this season and New England ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts per game. Josh Allen ($5,300) is also worth considering in GPPs that you can play naked as he could be in line for a huge game rushing the football.

There’s an argument to be made that the defenses on this slate are even better plays with the Patriots DST ($4,000) potentially having a slate-breaking upside. They have yet to score less than seven fantasy points at home this season. New England rarely turns the ball over at home, so the Bills DST ($2,900) is a thinner play.

Running Backs

The best running back play in this game has to be Devin Singletary ($5,500) for cash formats. Over the past month, Singletary has been averaging twenty-plus touches per game with usage as a receiver and runner averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. New England’s weaknesses are definitely more versus their run defense so Singletary could find a crease there in the defense. He also did not play in their Week 3 matchup versus the Patriots. Frank Gore ($3,400) rushed for over 100 yards for the one and only time this season when he played the Patriots on 17 attempts. The Patriots have also allowed the fifth-most receptions to the running back position over the past four weeks.

On the Patriots side, Sony Michel ($4,600) is nothing more than a GPP play, but he does have that three-touchdown upside especially at home. James White ($5,800) has seen at least ten targets in two of his last three games versus Buffalo and could see an expanded role in the passing game should Julian Edelman be any more limited.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Starting slot cornerback Jonathan Jones will miss this game which could create a great opportunity for Cole Beasley ($4,800) to have a nice day. Beasley had a season-high 12 targets last time he played NE for 75 yards. Other players to consider that could provide X-factors in this game are Mohamed Sanu ($3,800) and N’Keal Harry ($4,000). Sanu saw a team-high eight targets last week and Harry was playing ahead of Philip Dorsett ($3,100) and Jakobi Meyers ($3,100). If you want to get a weird look at Ben Watson ($2,700) who I know Phil loves this week as a contrarian play! Bills rank fifth-worst versus the tight end over the past four weeks.

Saturday DFS Week 16 – Rams @ 49ers – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: San Francisco -6.5 | Over/Under 46

Quarterbacks, Defenses

Both the Rams and 49ers rank top-ten in terms of the most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. However, there is only one quarterback that I will be considering starting: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500) that comes in cheaper than Jared Goff ($5,800). Goff traditionally struggles on the road especially against teams that pressure the quarterback. The 49ers rank third-best in the NFL in pressure rate by Pro Football Focus. Goff scored 2.12 fantasy points the last time he played SF. Garoppolo scored 14.12 points, but that was a game where Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin were the leading receivers.

Both defenses can pressure the quarterback, but I prefer the 49ers DST ($4,300) in a game that I project to be a 49ers’ onslaught.

Running Back

Todd Gurley ($6,300) is a clear-cut option in cash games because the Rams are 100% convinced now on getting him as many touches as they can. He has averaged over 20 touches over the past three weeks. Raheem Mostert ($6,100) is also a trust-worthy option in cash games versus the Rams who just got torched on the ground by the Cowboys. The 49ers are second in the NFL in fantasy points scored for their running backs so you know that one of these running backs is going to be on a winning GPP lineup. I am looking at you Matt Breida ($3,800).

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Neither Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) or Deebo Samuel ($5,100) was heavily involved in the team’s first matchup versus the Rams, and Jalen Ramsey was not on LA. I do not expect either to be heavily shadowed by Ramsey, but both move around the offense and play out of the slot to see production. Obviously George Kittle ($6,500) has been on absolute fire and is the clear cut stacking option with Jimmy G.

As for the Rams options I am getting off the Tyler Higbee ($5,000) train with the return of Gerald Everett ($4,000). Besides the matchup is not great either for Higbee who will be drawing coverage from Jimmie Ward. According to Pro Football Focus, Ward is ranked as the 6th-best safety with an 85.0 overall grade on the year. He also has an 80.5 pass coverage grade and an 86.4 run defense grade. 49ers defensive coordinator came out and said on Higbee that, “We do have to be aware of where he is and understand that he’s not just a decoy, but he and Goff right now have a good relationship and they’re playing very well together.”

Robert Woods ($6,200) is still getting all of the targets in the Rams’ passing attack making him the presumed cash play, but I like utilizing Cooper Kupp ($6,500) in GPPs. Unlike Woods Kupp is no stranger to the end zone and the 49ers have allowed the second-most wide receiver touchdowns over the past two weeks.

Image via Keith Allison

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The slate of wide receivers is incredible as we are approaching teams clinching playoff spots. There are some spots where you can afford some expensive receivers and some cheaper options with a good upside. Let’s dive into the best wideouts for Cash Games, GPP and who you should avoid with our Week 16 Wide Receiver DFS Picks.

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Week 16 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @ TB

DK ($8,500) FD ($8,700)

This is going to be a pass-heavy game from both sides. DeAndre Hopkins has the sixth-most receiving yards in the league. Hopkins is going to also be targeted the most in this game as he has 99 receptions, which is the second-most in the NFL. Tampa’s defense completely shuts down the running game but struggles against the pass as they give up 277 passing yards a game. Expect a huge day for Hopkins.

Michael Thomas, NO @ TEN

DK ($9,300) FD ($9,000)

It’s a hefty price but it would be a sin to leave him off of this list. Michael Thomas is going to get some MVP votes and break the single-season reception mark. He has double-digit receptions in three of his last four games. Tennessee allows the sixth-most completions in the NFL so this sounds like as close to a lock as it can get.

Week 16 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Tyler Lockett, MIN @ LAC

DK ($7,600) FD ($7,600)

He is going to be Russell Wilson’s favorite receiver with Josh Gordon being suspended. The Arizona Cardinals have the worst pass defense in the NFL so this is a good matchup for Lockett to have a huge day. This should be a bounce-back performance from the last times these two teams met and he struggled. With the NFC West still up for grabs, expect Tyler Lockett to build momentum into a Week 17 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

Amari Cooper, DAL @ PHI

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,700)

This is the week the Amari Cooper trade really looks like a victory for Dallas. Philadelphia is going to have trouble guarding Cooper with a weak secondary. Last time these two teams met, he finished with five catches for 106 yards. His DFS price dipped a tiny bit after last week’s dud of a performance against the Rams but with his contract expiring after the season, expect a big game in the biggest game for the Cowboys this season.

Week 16 Wide Receiver Fades

Breshad Perriman, HOU vs TB

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,400)

Don’t take the bait on this one. It looks like Perriman is likely to have a big game with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin going to miss the game with injuries. However, Bradley Roby will be guarding Perriman and that matchup is leaning towards the defense. The potential is there, but with the price tag close to other elite receivers, I would avoid picking him.

T.Y. Hilton, CAR vs IND

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,300)

Call me crazy but T.Y. Hilton does not look 100 percent to me yet. He returned on Monday night against the New Orleans Saints after about a month due to a calf issue and looked like a shell of himself with just four catches on nine targets for 25 yards. I don’t think he will do as poorly but definitely not enough production to warrant the prices for him.

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Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Allen Robinson over 18.5 receptions.

The combination of Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins should have a field day against the injury-plagued Chicago defense. The speed of these two receivers should be the difference maker and I expect around eight receptions apiece. I understand it’s a lot but have the Chiefs will need to win to still have a chance for a first-round bye. Allen Robinson has been targeted at least eight times in the last four games, so expect at least five receptions from him.

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The slate of wide receivers is incredible as we are approaching teams clinching playoff spots. There are some spots where you can afford some expensive receivers and some cheaper options with a good upside. Let’s dive into the best wideouts for Cash Games, GPP and who you should avoid with our Week 15 Wide Receiver DFS Picks.

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Week 15 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Julian Edelman, NE @ CIN

DK ($7,100) FD ($7,700)

Julian Edelman is going to have the most targets for the Patriots and has been doing well lately. In the last three games, he is averaging seven catches for 98 yards. Those were against Kansas City, Houston, and Dallas, which are leagues above the Bengals defense. Edelman also has a touchdown in each of the last two games. I don’t think any defensive back on the roster can stop Edelman so expect a nice 100-yard game out of him.

Jarvis Landry, CLE @ ARI

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,400)

Jarvis Landry is the number one option for Baker Mayfield and going against the worst pass-defending team in the NFL. When he went up against another struggling defense in Miami, Landry had 13 catches for 148 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Expect one of the biggest statistical games of the season for Landry.

Week 15 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Stefon Diggs, MIN @ LAC

DK ($7,300) FD ($7,700)

Stefon Diggs is still one of the best receivers in the game. He is a deep threat with seven plays of at least 40 yards. The only issue is that he has four fumbles on the year as well so ball security is the biggest weakness. The Chargers are solid against the pass but with a handful of their defensive backs on the injury report means trouble against a speedy receiver. Expect a solid game out of Diggs to keep Minnesota in the NFC North race.

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @ TEN

DK ($8,000) FD ($8,600)

Hopkins is a catching machine as he is at 93 receptions thus far, which ranks only behind Michael Thomas. Tennesee is in the Top 10 with passing yards allowed per game, but the last time they faced a solid number one receiver, Tyreek Hill had 157 yards. The Titans struggle with the upper echelon of receivers and DeAndre Hopkins should have a great game.

Week 15 Wide Receiver Fades

Keenan Allen, MIN vs LAC

DK ($6,300) FD ($6,800)

He only has six targets in each of the last two games so it seems like Philip Rivers is transitioning away from him as of late. Minnesota forces turnovers so the time of possession could be heavily favored towards the Vikings as well, limiting the opportunities that Keenan Allen would have to make an impact. Xavier Rhodes has been limited in practice due to an ankle injury but is expected to play against the Chargers. With Rhodes covering him for most of, if not all of the game, expect Allen to be held under his average and not worth the price.

Julio Jones, ATL @ SF

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,500)

Julio Jones is still one of the best receivers in the league and the 49ers are coming off a game where they seemed like any offense would cause problems. However, the Saints offense is a completely different animal than the Atlanta offense. San Francisco is still the best team defending the pass with only 150.8 passing yards allowed. Expect a few catches but nothing that will make you regret the decision to fade him in your DFS contests this Sunday.

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Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Danny Amendola over 17.5 receptions.

Chris Godwin is going to be Jameis Winston’s biggest target as Mike Evans is listed as doubtful so I expect around seven catches for him. O.J. Howard has seen his targets increase the past two weeks as well so expect a handful of catches for him as well. Danny Amendola is good for about five catches himself and that should get you right at 18. This one might be tight but the over should still hit.

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