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PGA DFS Picks: The Open Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

This week’s PGA DFS picks article should help you find some winning combinations and focus your player pool for the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Field of 156 golfers including the best players in the world
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 70 and ties play the weekend
  • No 2020 tourney; Defending (2019) champion: Shane Lowry (-15)
  • The course: Royal St. George’s Golf Club (Sandwich, England)
    • 7,268 yards, Par 70
    • Traditional seaside venue that can be affected by drastic wind changes and weather
    • Bentgrass greens
    • Tough links style course with deep bunkers and some OB providing a challenge
    • Some blind tee shots and plenty of humps and bumps that can send balls off track
    • Just two par 5s and four Par 3s – so Par 70 specialists could fare well
    • Length not that important, as most par 4s are in the 400-475 range
  • Wind and rain expected, with 20-25 MPH gusts blowing on Saturday and Sunday
  • Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, Par 70 (and links) performance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Despite the lack of a top 10 finish at the Open Championship (his best finish was a T11 at Royal Troon in 2016), Rahm enters the week as the betting favorite and highest priced PGA DFS golfer in the field. There’s no real weakness to his game; he currently leads the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring – and ranks second in SG: T2G. His ball-striking has been on point this season, he loves links courses and he’s in play for all formats this week.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,900) – I refuse to give up on Rory and think he’s a good GPP play this week in the wake of the missed cut at the Scottish Open – which he jumped into a little late because his wife and child are still stateside. He may end up being the lowest-owned golfer in the $10K+ range and that’s what we’re looking for since his upside is still in the trophy-hoisting territory. “Rors” is both familiar with this giant-killer venue (T25 here in 2011) and the elements that could stymie a large portion of the PGA DFS field.

Brooks Koepka ($10,700) – Because of his impressive history in majors (four wins in the past five years) and the Open Championship (three top 10s since 2015), Koepka isn’t cheap, but he’s a fine GPP play. The polarizing figure was a 13-year-old spectator in 2003 when Ben Curtis won at Royal St. George’s, and while he said Tuesday morning (in an interview that had the NYT writing about it) that while this isn’t his favorite British Open venue in the venerable rotation, there’s no reason to leave him off your builds with his uncanny ability to compete in the world’s biggest tournaments.

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – The former Open champion (2017 at Royal Birkdale) is impressive on links courses and has the requisite elements to his game is solid form heading into this week’s test. We have plenty of options in the $7,000-7,500 range this week if we’re rostering Rahm-Spieth to start, and if we’re fading Rahm there’s a great route to balanced builds that start with Spieth as the highest spend ($8K+ remining per golfer). I’ll be hoping to land around 25-40% ownership in GPPs.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,300) – There’s not much more to say about the former Open champion than what Sia said in his U.S. Open Initial picks piece and what I covered in the picks column leading into Torrey Pines, when he finished solo second after being edged out by Rahm. He’s not playing in the Olympics, so this tournament has to be an important one for him as he continues playing solid golf in the late summer/early autumn of his fantastic career. He’s a guy I love in basically all the majors for PGA DFS, but I know he’ll be popular this week.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – Hovland – the No. 14 golfer in the world – became the first Norwegian winner in the history of the European tour when he prevailed at the BMW International Open in Germany a couple weeks ago, and his steady play  and positive attitude should help him navigate the inexorable bounces and bumps of Royal St. George’s. The only drawback is his last of experience, as this will be his Open Championship debut, and it’s one of those things that’s got Sia concerned, as he explains in the breakdown.

Patrick Reed ($8,800) – While I’m a little skeptical that Reed can endure the elements and win the Open Championship, he’s certainly in play at this low price because of his ability to finish in the top 15. The form isn’t great, and his accuracy could be a problem here, but the ironically nicknamed “Captain America” loves to play the villain and he’s a shrewd large-field GPP play with an elite short game.

Paul Casey (DK $8,600) – Casey disappointed with a T54 at this venue in 2011 (a third-round 78 the main culprit), and his Open Championship finishes have left a bit to be desired through the years. But he’s a much more consistent golfer these days and has six top 10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments, so I like his chances for a top 10 this week, especially at this relatively fair price.

Tony Finau (DK $8,400) – I’ve said “never again” after being burned by Terrible Tony many times, but the talent level is off the charts and the price is a reasonable one despite two straight MCs at the U.S. Open and Travelers. Finau has not missed a cut at the Open Championship in four tries, and three of those attempts have yielded Top 20 finishes (solo third in 2019, T9 in 2018, T18 in 2016). He probably circled this on the schedule the minute he trudged off the 18th green at Torrey Pines, and I will be surprised (and angry) if he sabotages my GPP lineups again this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $7,900) – As you may have noticed if you’re a regular reader of PGA DFS Picks, Fitzpatrick is one of my favorite golfers to roster in single-entry and all types of GPPs, and I’ll continue that approach this week at Royal St. George’s – a venue where he should thrive – despite the disappointment of coming off a playoff loss to Min Woo Lee at the Scottish Open. His best finish in the Open Championship was the most recent iteration in 2019 (T20), and I believe he’s ready to break through with a top 10 (or better) this time around – when distance is not as important (it’s even shorter than it was in 2011) and he can plot his way around the golf course. In fact, Fitzpatrick came here last year (after having been told that he wasn’t going to enjoy it because of the blind shots and uneven lies) shot 67 and loved the course.

Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – The defending champion is under $8K this week, and that alone puts him in play in all formats, even if he’s exceedingly popular. Lowry performs well in weather and wind, and he was the only player who didn’t collapse in the gale-force gusts that plagued the final round at Royal Portrush Golf Club in 2019. There’s plenty of PGA DFS upside in this price range, and both Fitzpatrick and Lowry make for fine core plays in all kinds of builds.

Sergio Garcia (DK $7,600) – His last Top 5 at a British Open came in 2016, but he finished T9 here in 2011. He’s far from a safe play and I wouldn’t touch him in cash games despite the low price, but he’s a great GPP option given his upside and the dynamic quality of game and ball-striking prowess. He’s had a hard time closing things out this season, with some good rounds giving way to PGA DFS tumbles over the weekend, but he’s in play at this venue in large-field GPPs.

Also consider: Collin Morikawa (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Francesco Molinari (DK $7,300) – The talented Italian won the Open Championship in 2018 and finished T11 in 2019 – impressive finishes that show he can handle links style courses with the best of them. He missed the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011, but a decade of additional experience in major championships should help him this week.

Harris English (DK $7,300) – English has piled up the top 10 finishes this season (seven), and he’s one of just five golfers to notch two wins on tour this season. In the focus stats/metrics, he checks some crucial boxes for Royal St. George’s, ranking eighth in SG:T2G and seventh in Bogey Avoidance over his past three tournaments. He’s also missed the weekend just once in five Open appearances and has made cuts in 13 consecutive majors – something that makes him a solid play for single-entry and cash games as well as large-field GPPs.

Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – Fowler is teeing it up in his 11th Open Championship, with only one MC at this event (and three finishes of T6 or better – including a T2 from 2014 and a T5 at Royal St. George’s in 2011. That level of experience is a big help, and he’s finally rounding into form after a rough stretch in late 2020/early 2021. The fan favorite has now secured a weekend pass in three of his last four starts (T8, T11, MC and T32) and the impressive T8 was at the year’s second major – the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.

Robert MacIntyre (DK $7,300) – MacIntyre is right there with the rest of the high-upside players at this price point, even if PGA Tour golf fans aren’t that familiar with his record. Bobby Mac impressed at the Royal Portrush in 2019 at his Open Championship (and major tournament) debut, concluding in difficult conditions with a final round 68 and eventual T6 finish. He’s now ranked No. 53 in the world, making the cut at five straight majors – a T12 at the Masters this April his best major finish since the 2019 Open. MacIntyre shot under par in all four rounds last week and posted a T18 at the Renaissance Club in the Scottish Open – a links with at least a passing resemblance to Royal St. George’s. Excluding a COVID-related withdrawal at the Irish Open recently, The Scotsman has made a remarkable 25 of his last 26 cuts worldwide and may even be viable in cash games this week.

Branden Grace (DK $7,200) – Grace is usually hit-or-miss in major championships, but he arrives sporting some good form due to some sparkling iron play over his last dozen or so rounds. He has a history of going low at the Open, dating back to his 62 in Round three Saturday at Royal Birkdale in 2017 – when he finished T6 with Koepka, Marc Leishman, Alex Noren and Matthew Southgate at -4. The 33-year-old South African also finished inside the top 20 at the Open Championship in 2015, and arrives at this week’s edition on the heels of two consecutive top seven finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T7 at the 2021 U.S. Open.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,200) – Since missing the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011 (which surely sticks in his craw), Poulter has a spotty history at the Open Championship with five MCs and three top 15s – a testament to his dynamic play and viability as a GPP play. His 2021 record is actually a lot more steady: Since the PGA Championship, he’s 6-for-6 with two top five finishes including T4 at the Scottish open this past week.

Alex Noren (DK $7,200) – Noren has a distinguished record at the Open Championship, finishing T11 with Rahm, JT, Molinari and Tom Lewis in 2019 and earning top 10s in 2017 and 2012. He’s also finished among the top 15 (including a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic) in two of the past three starts, sporting excellent T2G numbers in that stretch. I wouldn’t pencil him into all my single-entry lineups, but I’m willing to take as stab in the lower-fee SE and in all types of large-field GPPs.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,000) – Kuchar is my choice for sneaky veteran bargain play – especially on a course that’s not all about mashing and/or the traditional “target” golf that’s played on a lot of the modern stateside venues. He’s fared well at the open Championship in the past and finished solo second at Royal Birkdale in 2017. In fact, he’s made nine out of his last 10 cuts in this tournament (and eight straight), the only outlier being the 2011 edition at – you guessed it – Royal St. George’s. The revenge narrative is strong this week and Kuchar should be low-owned with Top 10 upside.

Lucas Herbert (DK $6,800) – The woefully mispriced Herbert won at the Irish Open two weeks ago and notched a T4 in Scotland last week, so he’s in fine form heading into the Open. The plucky Australian also finished inside the top 20 at a couple of relatively prestigious PGA Tour events – the Memorial and the Travelers. He’s now won a couple times in his past 23 starts worldwide and should offer plenty of value as you construct your builds this week.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,600) – Hey – it’s another cheap Lucas! Glover is coming off a huge win at the John Deere Classic, snapping a winning drought that lasted over 10 years, and he should be excited about playing a course where he posted his best-ever finish at the Open Championship – a T12 in 2011. Winning two weeks in a row and collecting just his second major championship is a tall order – no doubt – but he’s a risk-reward play that won’t cost you very much to roster.

More value golfers to consider: Phil Mickelson (GPP), Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger (GPP), Thomas Detry, Matt Wallace, Russell Henley (GPP), Min Woo Lee, Corey Conners (GPP), Danny Willett, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Stewart Cink, Richard Bland, Adam Long (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Justin Harding (DK $6,500) – More of a single day (first-round?) showdown longshot, Justin Harding heads into the 2021 The Open Championship at Royal St. George’s Golf Club with insanely long (+35000) odds to win, but he’s in play due to the fact that he made the cut and finished 41st in his last appearance at this event in 2019, and he’s super cheap. I’m targeting him for 1/20 GPP entries.

Chris Kirk (DK $6,400) – Kirk made three of his last five cuts, but he’s 17-for-23 this season – decent for a golfer under $6,500. While he missed the cut during his last British Open appearance in 2016, he’s a much better golfer now and should be up to the challenge personally and professionally. Like Harding, I’ll find a place for him in 1/20 large-field GPP entries.

Johannes Veerman (DK $6,100) – Veerman posted a T3 at the Irish Open two weeks ago and is coming off a T8 at the Scottish Open, so the form is solid. He’s seemingly a fans of links-style courses and while he’s a virtual unknown who could boom or bust this week, the price is dirt cheap and he’s one of the better low-cost options in the $6K range – which we’ll need to peruse if we’re going full-on stars and scrubs. He might be my favorite play under $6,600, so I’m willing to click him into 5-10% of my large-field GPPs (and one or two of my 20-max entries).

Additional GPP punts: Sebastian Munoz, Carlos Ortiz, Marcus Armitage, Jason Scrivener, Sam Burns, Chan Kim

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PGA DFS Picks: Rocket Mortgage Classic

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The Win Daily team has content galore this week, including this edition of PGA DFS picks to help you dominate your contests at the Rocket Mortgage Classic!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full, watered-down field of 150+ golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Defending champion: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
  • The course: Detroit Golf Club (Detroit, MI) – Donald Ross design
    • 7,370 yards, Par 72 – Detroit
    • Bentgrass/Poa Greens
    • Four par 5s will give us lots of scoring, and it should be another birdie-fest
    • Approaches will be shorter; 175-225 long iron shots shouldn’t be tested too much
    • Bombers (on a driver-heavy course) and putters (who handle Poa) fare well here
    • Players successful on Ross designs (Pinehurst No. 2, Plainview, East Lake and Sedgefield) are worth a look this week
  • Thursday PM/Friday AM could have slight weather/conditions advantage
  • Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %. SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa), Performance on Donald Ross courses

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,400) – He’s the defending champion, largely on the performance of his putter, so we must consider Bryson this week, especially in cash games. And despite some poor course management choices and subsequent meltdowns, he’s still made 10 straight cut and should be in the conversation come Sunday.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,600) – Given the fact that he’s missed two cuts in his last five tourneys, we can’t say Simpson’s form is great, but he does have a couple Top 15s in there (T12 at the Masters and T9 at the RBC Heritage). Strangely enough, three of the last four appearances he’s made have been at majors. That tells me he likes playing here, and his T8 last year in Detroit piques my interest even more.

Will Zalatoris (DK $10,000) – Willie Z used to make a lot of hay on courses like this on the Korn Ferry Tour, even if his PGA identity has been more of a “tough course” grinder. He’s not cheap this week, but he’s clearly among the top five in the talent category that’s heading to Detroit. I’m most worried about his putting, so I’ll limit my ownership to GPPs.

Jason Kokrak (DK $9,500) – Kokrak should be popular even at this elevated price, but his game should translate well to this course, where he finished T29 in 2019 before his career added the maiden victory and follow-up win at the 2021 Charles Schwab, played at Colonial. This venue comps well to that course, he’s number one on Sia’s model, and I’ll be overweight on the field regardless of ownership.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – He’s off the DFS radar, for the most part, and that’s when I like to give him a shot in GPPs. But the price is entirely too much for cash game builds and he may fare well as a sneaky Top 10 bet.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Again – I can’t trust Wolff in cash games and will steer clear in single-entry, but the leverage and upside in large field GPPs should warrant some exposure to this dynamic but risky play. Joel likes him in GPPs and that’s enough for me.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,500) – Kisner finished third last year and his coming off a T5 at the Travelers, an event where he wasn’t much part of the DFS conversation in the leadup. Aside from that, he hasn’t been very successful in 2021, though the courses have played tough and he prefers venues like this where he can make some birdies.

Max Homa (DK $8,400) – Homa – who is a combined +28 in his last four missed cuts – is not getting the love he deserves this week because of the form, even if he’s been a popular topic in the WinDaily golf writers’ message thread. I know that Isaiah is intrigued by Homa this week and I’m on board too.

Garrick Higgo (DK $8,300) – I’m interested in seeing what Higgo can do at a birdie fest considering he shot 66-63-64-64 in his win at the Canary Islands Championship in May on the EURO tour. Higgo is long, he’s a good putter, and he’s a bargain at this price – so he really stood out to me in this range – just like he did for Sia in his Initial Picks.

Doc Redman (DK $7,900) – Redman has a T21 here in 2020 and notched a solo second in 2019, so he’s clearly a course horse. Normally considered a volatile performer and high-risk/big-reward type of play, Redman has made five straight cuts and could be trending up toward another Top 10.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,700) – I love McNealy and his ability to make birdies in bunches, and his T8 last season in Detroit is encouraging for another Top 20 finish. He finished T4 at the last birdie-forward event (RBC Heritage), and when he goes low, he goes really low. A fine play in all formats and one of favorites for “low round” bets.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,700) – I missed out on Straka and his T10 last week and will probably never recover from that – it’s like how I’ll feel if I fade Matthew Fitzpatrick the week of his first PGA Tour win. I’ll have some minimal shares just so I don’t have that feeling again.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Gary Woodland, Cameron Tringale, Si Woo Kim (GPP), Lucas Glover (GPP), Harold Varner, Kyle Stanley, Lanto Griffin

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,500) – Hadwin is solid T2G, and while I have a hard time seeing him post crazy low scores and reaching the -20 that might be necessary to win, he’s got the chops to finish in the Top 20.

Mark Hubbard (DK $7,300) – Don’t look now, but Hubbard has made five straight cuts and is playing really good golf, his T13 last week being his best finish since his T12 at last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s still a little risky for cash games, but he’s fine for GPPs and could be a bargain single-entry if you’re willing to assume a little extra risk.

Brian Stuard (DK $7,000) – Stuard is a couple years removed form his T5 finish here in what was a very weak field, but he notched a T30 in 2020 in Detroit as well and is among the best bargains in this $7K range for his brilliant putting and ability to make birdies in bunches.

Nate Lashley (DK $6,900) – Lashley is a former Rocket Mortgage champion (he won in 2019) but the form is somewhat concerning. I’ll limit my exposure to low-cost, large-field GPPs. He’s easy to root for and should make the cut this week.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,900) – If Rodgers could get in the habit of putting together four rounds of his A game, he’d be one of the best golfers on tour, but his one-day brilliance is usually bracketed by a stinker or two. He’s in the conversation for first-day leader, but I’ll steer clear in most formats.

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,800) – Norlander has made three cuts in his last five tournaments, which for him is a hot streak. I’m banking on another solid finish this week and he makes sense for the last piece in some GPP lineups.

More value golfers to consider: Seamus Power, Pat Perez (GPP), Danny Willett, Tom Lewis, Mackenzie Hughes, Beau Hossler, Scott Piercy, Richy Werenski, Cameron Champ (GPP), Danny Lee (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Adam Schenk (DK $6,500) – I won’t be dabbling too much in the $6,500 and under range this week, but Schenk checks a few boxes and could spike a Top 35 finish if he manages to make the cut – which he’s done in seven of his last 10 events.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,200) – Ventura is a hard nut to crack, because the ball-striking falls well behind the putter and there’s usually something in the course history I like (T21 here in 2020). This course sets up much better for him, and if the putter does its thing he could finally notch a Top 25, which he hasn’t done in a normal PGA tour event sine his T6 at Sanderson Farms.

Additional GPP punts: Jimmy Walker, J.J. Spaun, Ted Potter, Austin Cook

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PGA DFS Picks: The Memorial Tournament

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Memorial Tournament and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • VERY strong invitational field of 120 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Defending champion: Jon Rahm (-9)
  • 2019 champ: Patrick Cantlay
  • The course: Muirfield Village (Dublin, OH)
    • > 7,500 yards, Par 72 – Jack Nicklaus design (1972)
    • Bentgrass Greens and other features endured massive reconstruction following 2020 tournaments
    • Layout remains roughly the same but trees added to increase difficulty off the tee, possibly hurting some longer hitters
    • Course comps with Firestone and Augusta National
    • Scoring on Par 5s crucial on this difficult track
  • Expect soft conditions late Thursday after Wednesday and Thursday morning rain and some wind, which could cause delays
  • Current advantage seems to be late Thursday times
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: T2G, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Par 4s Gained (450-500), Bogey Avoidance, Birdie or Better %, Sand Saves, Proximity (175-200), Scrambling

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,100) – Since it’s obvious there’s no real No. 1 player in the world, I’m fine looking to Rahm and his solid all-around game (he ranks third in the field for SG:T2G) – even though he’s had a somewhat spotty 2021. Jordan Spieth is guaranteed to be chalky after another great PGA DFS finish (solo second at the Charles Schwab), but he might be a little drained after three straight weeks of very competitive golf. Rahm’s ownership should be down even though he’s the defending champ, and his T8 finish at the PGA points to him trending upward following a week of rest to defend his title, which was not without controversy.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Another golfer who’s been at the top of the mountain, McIlroy broke his slump at the Wells Fargo and returns to the site of one of the courses where he actually hasn’t won before. He’s a contrarian, GPP-only play for me this week, but his ownership should come back down a bit after a disappointing T49 at the PGA Championship. He probably won’t be on my single-entry teams, but I’ll try to be overweight in 20-max and larger field tournaments, where there’s still plenty of leverage in selecting one of the game’s all-time great players.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,200) – Where Bryson DeChambeau tends to force some things (like last year’s quintuple bogey OB meltdown in Round 2 when he ended up missing the cut), Thomas knows to plug away after bad shots on Muirfield. He just missed winning last year in the Workday (also played at Muirfield a week in advance of the 2020 Memorial), and we’re getting a big discount this year as he’s priced below his usual PGA DFS salary in the elite tier. I do like Bryson a bit in GPPs, but Thomas is probably the safer play.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,500) – We have a few safe bets for Top 15 finishes in the $9,500-$10K range, including weekly cash game maven Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, who makes for an excellent GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship. As much as I like Xander and his T3 finish at Augusta, Cantlay has shown winning upside on this course. Despite a stretch of poor play that resulted in four straight missed cuts, he could be worth a look given his excellent track record at Muirfield Village.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (Cash), Bryson DeChambeau (GPP) Viktor Hovland (Cash), Xander Schauffele (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,400) – He won here in 2014 and his short game confidence is soaring after his win at Augusta, a venue that has some correlations with Muirfield Village. Deki is the best option and priced modestly just after the elite tier, which Sia mentioned in the breakdown that he might avoid altogether. Deki could be the linchpin for your balanced PGA DFS builds that focus on these golfers in this loaded $7-9K range.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,700) – Fitzpatrick has played well here in his brief history, making the cut in his 2019 debut and finishing solo third last year in just his second try. I like this short-game specialist’s chances on these small greens even better in 2021, when the course has been made a little more difficult to weed out some of the longer hitters who may not be as accurate off the tee. He made the honorable mention in Isaiah’s picks article, and you all know how much I love the wispy Fitzpatrick in GPPs.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,600) –Smith has putted very well in 2021, and he ranks T6 this week in three-putt avoidance – a key stat this week. In fact, three-putt avoidance is the main reason I’m not including Collin Morikawa in my elite picks and prefer Hovland and JT in that range. His ball-striking isn’t quite on the same level as players like Keegan Bradley and Charley Hoffman, but the all-around game could see him break through this year and makes him interesting for GPPs.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Both Louis and Hoffman are excellent cash game plays and can be used for single-entry GPPs as well. Oosty is solid with the flat stick (tops in the field for 2021 in SG: Putting) and has three straight made cuts here despite the lack of a Top 10 finish, but he has notched a top 10s in his last two starts and gained over five strokes on approach (SG:APP) in each of his last two tourneys. He’s worth a look in all formats and should stay mostly off the radar.

Charley Hoffman (DK $8,300) –On the flip side, everybody will be on Hoffman again, since he just hasn’t left the leaderboard lately. With Top 20s in five straight events and his best golf seemingly reserved for tougher courses. He’s taken his game to a new level in 2021, and while he will be very popular in all formats, I can’t advocate fading him in cash or single-entry GPP.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,000) – He’s finally got some good mojo going after a strong PGA Championship, and now that he’s priced above $8K again, he’s fine for GPPs. I wouldn’t be forcing him into single-entry or any cash games, but he’s finally hitting some decent approaches and we know he has the short game (especially on Bentgrass) to finish in the Top 15 here. And unlike Patrick Reed (who I’m fading this week), he’s easy to root for.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,800) – He hasn’t missed a cut here since 2010, and he’s performed quite well with a slew of Top 15s over the past 10 years. Leishman might get forgotten even at this bargain price, so I’m looking to use him in some of my tournaments and just hope he doesn’t burn me – which he almost always does.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,600) – CBZ might just be the best putter in the world, and he relies heavily on his elite short game to place in events on both sides of the Atlantic. Over the South African’s last 50 rounds, he ranks 20th in Bogey Avoidance, second in SG: Putting and 10th in SG: Around the Green – great stats heading into the Memorial.

Also consider: Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Jason Day (GPP), Emiliano Grillo (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Kevin Streelman (DK $7,500) – Before 2015, Streelman was all over the place at the Memorial, but he’s made six straight cuts here and the increase in difficulty may help him stay relevant among the longer hitters. I’m a little worried that he’s burned out from playing a lot of high-stakes golf in the last few weeks, but he’s a tour veteran who’s used to grinding, so that shouldn’t keep you from rostering him in GPPs.

Matt Wallace (DK $7,400) – Wallace makes for a wonderful value play in this price range, especially considering his T4 finish here in 2020 and the decent form he arrives with. The wind blowing harder on Thursday morning and his early tee time doesn’t bother me as much as some of the other guys who don’t strike it as well in the wind.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,300) – The tightening of the driving demands this year is cause for some concern, but Kizzire is popping in many of the focus stat categories and his putting (Top 10 in both SG: P and 3-putt avoidance) has been awesome in 2021. The big fella hasn’t had much success at the Memorial, but there’s a first time for everything and his game is looking good upon arrival.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,200) – Todd is a straight hitter with an overall game that’s shaping up a bit since a positive COVID test forced him to withdraw from the Wells Fargo, He missed the cut at the PGA Championship but finished T8 last week at Colonial on Bentgrass greens. I’m not planning on being crazy overweight, but the price is good and he finished T22 here last June.

Luke List (DK $6,900) – List finished T10 here last June and while he won’t be popular this week, he seems to be a textbook GPP play considering the price and the dynamic quality his game provides. Far from safe, List often has meltdowns on the green and is biggest problem is the 3-putt, where he ranks near the bottom of the PGA rankings with guys like List as my “problematic play” – a low ownership dart throw who could shine if he avoids the three-jacks with the flatstick this week.

Danny Willett (DK $6,600) – Willett plays well in wind, so the early Thursday time doesn’t throw me off too much, and he’s had a couple of Top 35 finishes here in his only two attempts in 2019 and 2020. I love the price, and while he might not win, he makes for excellent value this week and could make for a pretty cheap “last two spots” filler play in stars-and-scrubs builds, especially alongside some of the guys in the next tier. For instance, rostering Wallace, Willett and a mispriced Kyle Stanley gives you $9,966 for your top three spends.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Sebastian Munoz, Aaron Wise, Troy Merritt (GPP), C.T. Pan, Adam Hadwin (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Brendan Steele (DK $6,500) – Like many of the golfers priced in this range, Steele’s putter suffers a bit, but he’s made 14 of his last 17 cuts and that’s a nice bonus for any golfer under $7K. He’s not that strong a finisher, so the upside is a little bit lacking as well, but he had a week of rest and checks in as my “gut” punt play in 1/20 large-field GPPs.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,100) – Stanley’s late addition resulted in a pricing error by DK, but he’s played very well at the Memorial in the past, with a T6 in 2018 and T2 in 2019. The course may play a little tougher than it did then, but Stanley needs to be considered as a core stars-and-scrubs play if you’re spending big money with your first few selections.

Russell Knox (DK $6,100) – Like Sia, I was drawn to the super low price and upside that Knox offers. He’s not nearly as “safe” as Stanley – although both golfers can struggle with the putter – and while the early tee time on Thursday isn’t quite as beneficial, he’s 4-for-4 here since 2016.

Additional GPP punts: Patrick Rodgers, Michael Thompson, Henrik Norlander

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PGA DFS Picks: Valspar Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Valspar Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Decent top-end in a full field of 156 golfers, but not an elite group
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Canceled in 2020 due to COVID-19
  • 2019 (and 2018) champion: Paul Casey (-8 in ’19; -10 in ’18)
  • The course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (Palm Harbour, FL)
    • Par 71: 7,340 yards
    • Bermuda greens
    • Tough track that played easier before 2015 renovations and a 2007 date change
    • Five par 3s, four par 5s
    • Tight fairways, water in play on 11 of 18 holes
    • Solid tee-to-green golf a must
    • AVOID THE SNAKE PIT (Holes 16-18 can bit you… and poison a victory with a multi-stroke swing come Sunday)
  • Some Friday afternoon wind will bump up (10-14 MPH) but weather looks great in the low 80s with no rain forecasted
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: T2G, Par 3s Gained: 200-225, SG: Short Game, Par 4s Gained: 400-450, Good Drives Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is my top dog emcee this week, despite an embarrassing MC his last time out here at Copperhead in 2019. Feel free to drop him into your GPPs and hope for the A game on a course he should excel on — in a clime and locale he digs. Some tighter pricing at the very top will keep him lower owned than usual. He posted T10 in 2015 and T18 in 2016, but not tons of success here…yet. JT’s greatest strength in GPPs is both his predictability (on hard golf courses) and his relative unpredictability (when it comes to making cuts) in PGA DFS.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – He’ll come in even lower than JT, so why not? I’m going to try to jam both of these guys in together in just one or two of 20 max GPPs – it’s a tough stars-and-scrubs route but not impossible if you deploy 2-3 of my punts in the $6,300-$6,700 range. DJ’s almost twice that, but I’m still fine coming in around the field on his ownership because he’s so frickin’ solid T2G. Again — in most cases we’ll be tasked with rostering one or the other, so you’ll have to pick your poison in the Justin-or-Dustin sweepstakes.

Paul Casey (DK $10,000) – I guess he likes it here, huh? Casey’s the defending champ two times over, so you know damn well he’s going to be popular – like Hell’s Ice Cream Man. I’m using some recent course history in my mixed model this week; as a result he’s No. 1 in the field four categories (three exclusive to Copperhead: SG:T2G, SG: Short Game and DK Pts), and the other a very impressive field-beater for Par 4s (400-450). Casey also ranks out as No. 5 in my Good Drives Gained metric and No. 3 overall in two categories tweaked for difficult fairways and scoring: SG: APP and SG: T2G. So hard to bet against him, but he’s definitely looking at 15-20% ownership this week in GPPs.

Corey Conners (DK $9,600) – He might be more of a cash play than GPP, because he’s becoming popular – and he’ll be more popular than Casey, even – for a reason. But yeah, I’d use him in single-entry GPPs, especially if you’re fading Casey. Conners finished T16 here (right with the next two golfers I wrote up, in fact) in 2018, and it’s a very viable trio again in 2021, with all three of them in my model’s Top 15.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,500) – So yeah, I love Louis and the high price – because it’s up with the big boys and he should fly under 12% owned in GPPs. Oosty has a T7 (2016), a T16 (2018) and a T2 (2019) at Copperhead and he’s swinging it great recently. The last tee shot he hit that folks watched got pushed it into the water – and he and teammate Charl Schwartzel lost in the first hole of a playoff at the Zurich Classic to Aussie bros and champs Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith. Not sure what effect that has, but I’m using King Louis of the Gorgeous Tempo in like 20-30% of my GPPs to get myself way ahead of the field.

Also consider: Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Patrick Reed (Cash)

Mid-Range Golfers (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,300) – Ancer’s solid driving, elite iron play and pin-seeking approaches should help keep him on point at Copperhead, where he finished T16 in his only appearance in 2018. No 4 in my mixed model, No. 3 in Par 4s (400-450), No. 8 in Good Drives Gained and No. 17 in the field for Par 3s (200-250). Impressive numbers for this T2G maestro that help me see him as a top cash and SE GPP play this week.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,200) – Our guy Joel may be “on a Sungjae kick,” but I’m just getting started because I’ve avoided him a bit like Sia has. This week, he’s popping up as No. 2 on my mixed model, and he notched a T4 here at the Valspar in 2019. I’ll have a hard time leaving him out of my player pool even if he’s 20% owned. Im’s approach game and recently competitive play indicate he’s the type of guy to look for here in a breakthrough.

Russell Henley (DK $9,000) – He’ll be popular, and Sia discussed why a little before when Joel confessed he’s a Sungjae believer on the breakdown. Henley pops in a lot of models, even though he hasn’t played well here aside from a T9 in 2017. I may not be into him like Sia – but I’m a little more bullish than Joel on him because of his T2G and approach abilities on tough courses like this.

Justin Rose (DK $8,800) – Always a better driver and ball-striker than a putter, Rose has hit a resurgent stride under the tutelage of Sean Foley and looks to be recovered from his back woes and wayward shots. He was one of the first guys I wrote in to discuss, arrives in great form and finished T5 here in 2018. I’m jumping aboard and I still think folks are wary to do the same – so he’s fine for GPPs at under 10-12% ownership. Glad to hear Sia is into him too. Watching Rose play the last few weeks has been a pleasure after his rough patch.

Jason Kokrak (DK $8,700) – He’s shaping up to be popular, and I like him for cash with Conners or Ancer (or maybe both). Good recent course history (consecutive top tens) and great form (3/4 top tens) His average finish at the event is 19th, and he even carded one of the individual top single-day scores in 2019 when he finished T2 with Oosthuizen. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kokrak was in contention on Sunday, so he’s on my short list in this price range.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – I’ll be looking at ownership before I make a final determination on how deep I’ll plunge in GPPs, and I’m really the most focused on his SG:APP numbers more than anything, so that might end up meaning I’m fine being close to where the field lands. I don’t want to be double it and overexpose, and I don’t want to miss out on a guy I really like playing each week for his ball-striking.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Putting is less important than T2G numbers here, so Grillo makes for a perfect GPP play. I landed on a lot of the same names as Joel and Sia this week, so the overlap in our Venn diagram of player pools could work out great for WinDaily subscribers if they really zero in with our builds. My piece on Grillo is that he won’t be quite as popular as the early ownership projections, because folks will get cold feet when they look at his course history here.

Chris Kirk (DK $8,200) – I know his course history isn’t great, but he’s just a better golfer now and he’s No. 30 on my model, which includes a data set of some assorted SGs (and DK points) from Copperhead over the past five seasons. That part isn’t too appealing, but he’s tackling all the other focus stats recently in this stretch of wonderful form. I wrote the start of this blurb right before I heard Sia point out in the breakdown about how he’s playing the best golf of his life at the moment – and a great value.

Talor Gooch (DK $8,000) – His numbers at Copperhead are awful, but he’s bound to come around here the second time he plays it, right? He’s a tough longshot play at 75-1 to win, but I like his Top 15 upside this week based on his SG:APP numbers and his dominance of Par 3s 200-225. There’s five par 3s here! And he hits the golf ball very well! Seriously, though, I’m getting me some GPP shares of the Goochmeister.

Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Lucas Glover, Adam Hadwin (GPP)

Value Plays (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,400) – It’s his debut at Copperhead, but Griffin is the type of talent who could get in the Top 12-15 here in his first run. He shakes out well on the mixed model (No. 16 overall) and I don’t think the lack of experience should hurt him too much. He’s almost $1K cheaper than Grillo and has similar upside as an under-the-radar PGA DFS value play.

Danny Willett (DK $7,200) –A really good play in GPPS this week, Willett arrives in very good form and the former Masters champion is a whiz on this type of difficult track – which demands good shots into the par 3s and plays to his T2G strengths. The Englishman is one of the more talented players in this range, alongside Stenson and Griffin, and he’s hitting it crisp and straight.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,100) – I think being in contention alongside Oosthuizen last week helped him out tremendously, and I think the good memories of his 2016 win here are more than just a narrative on a course this tough, especially when you factor in the solo sixth place in 2017. Charl makes for a viable value play in a good majority of formats this week, as he was T26 at the Masters (another place he won) and I think he’ll still come in under 8% ownership. I’ll be pleased as punch if I can lock him into 15-20% of my GPP lineups and get that far ahead of the field, for his top 20 upside alone.

Henrik Stenson (DK $7,000) – He’s tops in the field in SG: APP on Copperhead over the past five events, so I’m going to be grabbing some shares at this low price – especially considering the dynamic track record and his ability to play well on tough courses. His short game isn’t great, but that’s not a focus stat this week, and his swing coach has him playing much better than in 2020. Stenson makes sense for use in some GPPs.

Tom Hoge (DK $7,000) – He’s almost always firmly in play in PGA DFS as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play unless the greens are very difficult, but that’s not the issue here. He’s No. 34 in my mixed model this week and I’m still waiting for that Top 5-10 I know he’s capable of if he can avoid the one bad round that usually spoils his eventual finish.

Ryan Moore (DK $6,900) – Moore grades out in the Top 10 of my model, but we’ve acknowledged that I’m taking course history into account – especially when it comes to searching for sub-$7K plays. There’s plenty to like about the current state of his game and the venue just works great, as he’s fifth in SG: T2G and SG:APP among the field over the Valspar’s past five events at Copperhead.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,800) – A good driver of the golf ball who’s pretty solid T2G, Stanley fits the course profile pretty well and should come in under 5% ownership, so he’s worth a look in GPPs. He’s far from masterful around the greens and on them, so SG: Short Game is my biggest concern when it comes to focus stats, but I can endorse up to 10% in 20 max GPPs and other large-field events.

More value golfers to consider: Denny McCarthy, Doug Ghim, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Patton Kizzire (GPP), Rory Sabbatini (GPP), John Huh, Luke List, Chase Seiffert (GPP), Scott Stallings (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – He’s missed the last two cuts but has played well here before, including a T9 in 2019. Think of him as the higher-risk, higher-reward Brian Stuard, who I’m also considering for a few GPPs. He’s No. 26 in the model that uses a data set including course history metrics. Armour is boom-or-bust in PGA DFS, but I might take the risk this week.

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – A perfect type of player to debut here and flirt with an early lead because he likes it. He should like it, as he tears apart Par 3s in the 200-225 range (tied for tops in the field over his last 50 rounds with Talor Gooch) and is No. 14 on my mixed model despite the glaring lack of course history. He doesn’t feel like a punt, so he could get a few more plays as folks realize that – but for you SW predictors in Discord and followers (I confess, I VERY MUCH AM one), he might come in a little higher (or lower) than 5%.

Wes Bryan (DK $6,400) – T25 at the Heritage and he’s played well here before. Large-field GPP only but someone to consider in your stars-and-scrubs builds. Known as a less-than-driver player, Bryan hits decent approaches when he’s allowed to club down from the big stick. He’s been learning to embrace tougher tracks like this, so he’s fine for 5-10% ownership in 20 max GPPs.

Sean O’Hair (DK $6,200) – He’s made the cut here a bunch of times AND has a T12 (2018) and T2 (2015) in his last two attempts here. O’Hair’s form is hot garbage, so he’s really only a consideration for enormous GPPs in limited ownership, but at least there’s a viable narrative – rare for this admittedly desperate price range in PGA DFS.

Additional GPP punts: Brian Stuard, Austin Cook (GPP), Danny Lee

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PGA DFS Picks: The 2021 Masters

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Masters and helping you find some winning teams to boost your bankroll!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Reduced field of 88 golfers with all the big names
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 50 and ties (10-stroke rule NOT in effect)
  • Last year’s champion: Dustin Johnson (November)
  • The course: Augusta National (Donald Ross design)
    • Par 72: 7,475 yards
    • Bentgrass greens
    • Tournament is back to its usual April date, so the course will play differently than it did five months ago
    • Patrons are back at Augusta National
    • Winners typically come from PM Thursday/AM Friday groups
  • Wind will blow, course should play tough if it doesn’t rain at all
  • Focus Stat Categories: Course History, Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, Birdie or Better %, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – Because of this week’s soft pricing and slew of viable golfers in the $7K range, getting DJ into your teams won’t be that much of a hassle, even with one more $9K and up player in the mix. Despite two less-than-stellar finishes at the WGC-Workday and Players Championship, DJ still offers the most consistent upside at this venue, where he won in November. It’s playing differently now, but he knows that. Don’t overthink this – get exposure to DJ in all formats.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – The Rahm/DJ combo leaves you with $6,875 per golfer for the remaining four slots on DK, and with some of the talent in this field, even those stars-and-scrubs teams don’t look too scrubby. But there are some key golfers I like in the $7.5-$8.5K range that I won’t be able to get if I use the top two salaries – so most of my teams will feature one or the other, and in some cases, neither. Rahm, a new father, seems a little more cash-viable than the next two guys, and he’s fine for single-entry GPPs.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,800) – I know he’s in Sia’s initial picks column and Joel loves him – and I agree he has plenty of upside – but Bryson’s aggressive approach on Par 4s worries me a bit. He tends to attack those holes and try to create his own scoring chances instead of treading water and waiting for his opportunities. If it didn’t work in November, when he finished T34, it may not work in April, even with the new driver that he says will mitigate the shot dispersal. I’ll tread lightly with him, but I think he’s fun to watch and root for.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,100) – Rory may very well be the same golfer who was dominating before the pandemic, but it’s hard to see that in his results. Still – he managed to finish T5 here in November and certainly has enough Top 10 finishes at Augusta (and no finish worse than T21 in his last five tries) to land in the Top 5 again. He’s never won here, but he’s guaranteed for low ownership relative to the rest of this bunch and that really intrigues me.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,800) – Like Sia, I like the price on Cantlay and think he’s about as solid an overall golfer as you can find in the field, without any glaring weaknesses and sporting a game face for the ages. Much like Patrick Reed, Cantlay is not here to make friends, and Augusta National is a fine a venue as any for his first major win. Ownership will probably end up between 15-20%, but I really like him for single-entry GPPs and I’ll have exposure in all formats.

Also consider: Justin Thomas (GPP), Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,400) – Fresh off a win at the Valero, folks will be dying to play Spieth at the site of his greatest triumph and most epic collapse. He knows the course, he’s playing great golf (even if he’s still a little erratic off the tee and on some approaches), and I’ll have a hard time fading him, even when his ownership spikes. Last week I said I was excited to play him, and I clearly didn’t play him enough. My single-entry team had 5/6 make the cut and cash in every instance, but it earned about one-hundredth of what it should have because I had Tony Finau (the lone MC) instead of Spieth as my big spend.

Webb Simpson (DK $9,000) – Simpson’s course history is a lesson in perseverance and scholarship, as he’s learned how to “master” Augusta in recent years. Now in his tenth year playing the Masters, he’s in position for another Top 10 and continued, under-the-radar success. I’ll have Simpson at about 25% in my GPPs and he’s on the short list for my single-entry player pool. I may even play around with some Milly builds that have him as my only $9K and up player, and everybody else on the team is $7,700 and up.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,700) – The experts are giving Hovland no love this week, and while he’s in the Top 20 of my model, I can understand why – as a really strong short game seems like a must to win at Augusta. Hovland may not be the best around the greens, but he’s awesome on Par 5s and that’s where most of the scoring is done at this golf course. If his ownership dips a little bit from the early projections, I’ll increase my shares.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,300) – I normally don’t play a lot of Matsuyama because of his erratic putting, but he has a bunch of Top 20 finishes at Augusta because of his amazing ball-striking and performance “around” the greens. His overall short game still ranks in the Top 40 of the field for Augusta and its closest course comps, and he seems to know where to miss in off the tee here, since he’s navigated his poor tee shots well in the past.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,100) – Fitzpatrick could have been priced at $9K and I’d have interest, because this is a course where he could win – if he can just elude the one bad round he seems to have at every major. His form is alarmingly consistent, with five straight Top 20s internationally and four straight within the Top 11 since the Genesis. He’s a fine play in all formats and there’s always the chance he finally breaks through.

Sergio Garcia (DK $7,900) – Garcia still hits it like a beast off the tee (long and straight) and he’s got the requisite experience at Augusta to tackle this difficult layout and win – or at least contend – again. He’s one of my favorite value plays in the mid-range and while there’s inherent risk with him because of his volatility, it’s a week without too many guarantees.

Paul Casey (DK $7,700) – A missed cut in 2019 (which started out with an uncharacteristic 81) is just about the only recent blemish on Casey’s record at Augusta, which includes a T6 in 2015, T4 in 2016 and solo 6th in 2017. He’s had a monster resurgence in 2021, with six straight finishes inside the Top 12, including a win in Dubai and T5s at both Pebble Beach and the Players.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Bubba Watson (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $7,500) – As long as his back doesn’t lock up before his tee time, Louis should be a solid pick this week at Augusta, where he almost always plays well. In many ways, Oosty is like the still-under-40, cheaper version of Lee Westwood. The South African has one thing that Westwood doesn’t – and that’s a major championship victory. He’s among the top golfers in this value range.

Will Zalatoris (DK $7,300) – What Zalatoris lacks in experience he makes up for in talent and fearlessness, and he proved in the U.S. Open at Winged Foot he can take whatever a golf course and extremely windy conditions has to offer. He’s a solid bet to make the cut, and even though he’s a first-timer at Augusta, he’s played casual rounds and seems to understand (from quotes and interviews) how to play the course.

Max Homa (DK $7,100) – The fact that Homa won at Riviera factors into his inclusion in the value picks, because he’s got minimal experience here (just a missed cut at the November event) and finishes just inside the Top 40 on my model. But if I’m looking for GPP plays with confidence and upside, he’s a solid pick.

Corey Conners (DK $6,900) – If you’re looking to avoid chalk in GPPs and assume more risk, then maybe you’d prefer to spend the extra $100 and grab Victor Perez, who should come in under 5% ownership. But Conners is a much safer pick, with two made cuts in two tries and a top 10 in November. Granted, we could see a few three-putts and greenside abominations from the Canadian ball-striking sensation, but he’s so good tee-to green it might not matter. A staple in cash games for his low price and a guy to watch this year.

Si Woo Kim (DK $6,700) – The more I dig into the windy weather and the mixed model, the more I like Kim as a GPP risk-reward play. He’s made three straight cuts at Augusta after missing in his 2017 debut, and he’s got oodles of Top 25 upside this year. He already has one 2021 win (at the AMEX) and while he missed some cuts in February and withdrew at Bay Hill, his last two finishes are a T9 at the Players and T23 at the Valero last week. I’ll be massively overweight on the field and I’m thinking about using him on my largest field single-entry GPP.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,600) – It’ll be interesting to see how well Munoz makes the adjustment form his Masters debut in November to a much harder and faster course this week, but his recent form is solid (aside from a MC at the Players) and the price is fair. The Colombian golfer sports solid metrics on most of the course comps (excluding TPC Sawgrass) and could be an option as a last piece.

More value golfers to consider: Joaquin Niemann (GPP), Justin Rose (GPP), Billy Horschel, Victor Perez (GPP), Brian Harman, Matt Kuchar, Christian Bezuidenhout, Danny Willett, Phil Mickelson, Cameron Champ (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Carlos Ortiz (DK $6,500) – He’s a Masters virgin but has been practicing this week with Jordan Spieth and Sergio Garcia to learn the ropes of this famously difficult risk-reward layout. He seems to play the comp courses well and can get insanely hot with his short game, so I’m very interested in using him in a bunch of GPPs.

Kevin Na (DK $6,500) – Playing Na is always a bold move because he’s so prone to withdrawing due to injury and his game can be erratic, but his short game is elite and he’s underpriced for his upside here. He’s the ultimate GPP punt this week and he’s never all that popular because he scares the crap out of people.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,300) – A former Masters champion who placed third here in 2017, I’ll be using Schwartzel on a few of my GPP teams where I need salary relief from one or two spots because I’m playing two $10K+ studs. He’s in the top 50 of my model, so at this price we’re looking for a made cut and a couple birdie streaks during the weekend to land him a Top 25.

Additional punts: Robert Macintyre (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Zach Johnson, Jimmy Walker, Stewart Cink, Bernhard Langer

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PGA DFS Picks: Valero Texas Open

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’re getting ready for some winning PGA DFS picks for the Texas Valero Open and helping you win big money this week and bloat those bankrolls!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Solid field of 144 golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • No 2020 Winner, but Corey Conners won in 2019 (-20)
  • The course: TPC San Antonio – Oaks Course (Greg Norman design)
    • Par 72 (7,494 yards)
    • Wider fairways in spots but trouble off the tracks
    • Long course with ball striking and second shots at a premium
    • Par 5s are long, not guaranteed birdies
    • Scrambling will help because bad approaches will run off greens
    • Tough, Bermuda greens (overseeded with mixture)
    • Wind is always an issue in Texas but we’re in the 10-12 MPH range for most of the play this week
  • Correlative courses include Colonial CC, Silverado, Waialae CC, Bay Hill and the Pebble Beach courses
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: APP, SG: OTT, SG: ARG, Driving Distance, GIR, Opps Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Tony Finau (DK $11,000) – Playing a chalky Tony Finau – a guy who has burned me so many times I’ve lost count – doesn’t make me feel all that comfortable as I lead off the most expensive tier, but I don’t think I can fade this guy. Eventually I’ll get him right and there’s no discernible reason to leave him off my core builds other than bad feelings and high ownership. He’s No. 1 overall on my model, even including Dustin Johnson, who has already withdrawn from the Valero.

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,700) – He loves this course and its correlated venues and with his game shaping up considerably over the past couple of months, I think he might be ready for a win. His scrambling and short game will come in especially handy this week, and it’s the most excited I’ve been to play Spieth in PGA DFS in a long, long time.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10.100) – Hideki’s ownership might be the lowest of anybody in this top tier, so that’s one reason to jump on this ball striker extraordinaire in tournaments. Putting is always an issue, but he’s so surgical with his irons (and is a good enough scrambler at No. 37 in the field) that he’ll probably be gaining enough strokes on the field to offset his typical mediocrity with the flat stick.

Corey Conners (DK $9,500) – Second overall on my model, Conners is the defending champion here and has played well recently with 7 of his last 9 finishes among the Top 20, excluding a missed cut at the Genesis and T37 at the Farmers. He’ll be a near-lock for cash games and should be considered a core play for single-entry GPPs.

Also consider: Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Abraham Ancer

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Ryan Palmer (DK $9,400) – Palmer has stepped up his PGA DFS game in 2020-21 with nine straight made cuts after missing the weekend at the U.S. Open. This week he comes in at No. 7 on my model, and his dominance of Par 5s (No. 1 in the field) should help him solve these longer-than usual examples. A fine play in all formats.

Charley Hoffman (DK $9,200) – Hoffman’s numbers at TPC San Antonio might be the best in the field, with a win and eight finishes out of 10 (all made cuts) in the Top 15. If they ever build a new clubhouse, they should fashion a gargoyle on top of the roof in his honor. Fading him could be a mistake, but I’m not sure I’m in love with his price and projected popularity in large-field GPPs.

Brendan Steele (DK $9,100) – With a made cut in every event he’s played in 2021, Steele is starting to look like a solid cash game play in addition to his dynamic role as one of my favorite GPP plays. This week he comes in at No. 14 on my model and sports solid numbers across the board in the focus stat categories. His T3 at the Honda Classic means he’s got plenty of Top 5 upside.

Chris Kirk (DK $8,600) – Kirk (who’s made nine out of his last 10 cuts) sometimes struggles to find the fairway, but that should be mitigated a bit by these larger-than-normal target areas. He’s a solid scrambler, is excellent around the greens (No. 4 in the field in SG:ARG) and has a Top 10 (2018) and Top 15 (2016) straddled by two missed cuts at this event in 2019 and 2017. I’ll have exposure in GPPs, though I probably won’t have him in my single-entry builds.

Adam Hadwin (DK $8,300) – Nick and Sia discussed Hadwin in the breakdown, and he’s clearly doing some things right around the greens lately, making six out of his last seven cuts and spiking a T8 at the Honda Classic a couple weeks ago. Nick’s model has him much higher than mine, but nobody’s model is perfect. I’m hoping it could be a good week for Canadians, as both he and Conners seem to be shaping up well for this Texas venue.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,900) – I’m a little wary of investing too much in Varner this week because he’s popped on my model before (he’s No. 10 overall this week) and when that’s happened I seem to remember him finishing poorly and only fair to middling among the other players I liked ta his price point – which is not really where we want to go in GPPs. But he’s a solid ball striker who’s fine for cash games – and my large-field GPP ownership depends largely on where the field is projected to land on him.

Charles Howell III (DK $7,800) – Chucky 3 isn’t the greatest ball-striker around, but he gets it done off the tee and has the shops to get it done around the fast Texas greens. If I had to narrow my player pool down to about 20-25 players, he’d be in there, and the price is eminently affordable for his upside.

Danny Willett (DK $7,700) – I’m not hearing too many folks lauding the prospects of Willet this week outside of out crack team at WinDaily, which makes me feel all squishy and titillated in my gamblin’ bones. The Englishman finished solo eighth last week at the Corales Puntacana, and while my model isn’t in love with him, he’s definitely a guy that shows up a few spots better at windy venues and places where there’s some green run-off and crafty approaches to finagle. Get some exposure in your large-field GPPs, as it won’t be hard to get ahead of the field.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,600) – Munoz also seems to have gone overlooked a bit this week and that’s fine with me, because he’s No. 22 on my overall model and sports no glaring weaknesses heading into this venue. His game log isn’t too exciting, but Munoz is a guy that grinds away and gives you some exciting finishes when you least expect them – like a quiet assassin waiting to pounce.

Also consider: Cameron Tringale, Si Woo Kim, Cameron Davis, Lanto Griffin, Zach Johnson, Keegan Bradley (Cash), Sam Burns (GPP), Ryan Moore, Matt Wallace, Gary Woodland (GPP)

Value (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sepp Straka (DK $7,300) – I tend to view Straka and Higgs as almost interchangeable in DFS, and it’s almost hilarious to see where they land this week on my model and how much they align in the focus stat categories. Straka gets the nod in tournaments because he’s a lot less popular this week, but I’ll have shares of Harry as well.

Look at these two (outlined in red). Get a room, fellas!

Lucas Glover (DK $7,300) – I’m fine with Glover in large-field GPPs where you have to get a little bit different, and he’s on my short list for single-entry consideration given his T14 finish here in 2019 and decent SG:APP numbers at this and correlated venues. If anything he’ll give you a wild ride.

Denny McCarthy (DK $7,300) – Speaking of wild rides, McCarthy usually gets it done with elite putting and scrambling, but his ball striking has improved considerably in 2021 and he looks like he could be a decent value in this group, which if I’m being honest is pretty appealing for their upside. He, Glover, Kizzire and Laird all seem to be underpriced.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,200) – Kizzire is another player who’s made big strides in the 2020-21 season, and his normal SG:OTT woes fall under the same category as Kirk. In effect, we can consider him to be kind of a “poor man’s Kirk” this week given the disparity in pricing and odds. I like him for GPPs and he’s in consideration for my SE.

Martin Laird (DK $7,100) – Laird is 30thoverall on my model and while his game is a tad finicky for my liking, he’s three for his last three at the VTO including two top 20s. I won’t go heavy, but coming in around the 5-10%  range along with the field shouldn’t kill too many lineups if he doesn’t smash.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,100) – NeSmith will be more popular than Laird because he’s easily more recognizable; his solid February stretch made him a profitable play at the Pebble Beach AT&T and Waste Management Open. He’s No. 39 overall on my model and while the windy Texas venue might be a problem for him, he’s a decent enough ball striker to come out okay.

Tom Lewis (DK $6,800) – Lewis is my wild card play this week, but I’ll be careful not to exceed 10% ownership in my GPPs and probably can’t get behind him in single-entry. Still – he’s a guy who can go low and could make his mark in single-day, so stay tuned.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,600) – Hadley’s not the best scrambler around, but if he can keep his head on straight and not melt down on the Par 5s, I’ve got confidence he can place well enough this week to help your teams. Expectations should remain relatively low at this price, but Hadley could surprise this weekend.

More value golfers to consider: Erik van Rooyen, John Huh, Doug Ghim (GPP), Harry Higgs, Tom Hoge, Jim Furyk, Will Gordon

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Jason Dufner (DK $6,500) – As we’ve discussed before,we should never be going all-in on this range of golfers unless there’s a glaring pricing error at play, but I don’t mind using some Dufner given the fact he’s made three out of his last four cuts and has some upside.

Bo Hoag (DK $6,400) – He’s missed the cut in his last two but Hoag offers plenty of Top 35 upside for his excellent scrambling numbers and overall finish in my model, where he’s No. 28 (just ahead of Si Woo Kim and Laird). He’s a 1/10 GPP play at most but I’ll have shares.

D.J. Trahan (DK $6,000) – Trahan is an awful putter but ranks No. 32 on my model and will find his way onto one or two of my cheap 20 max “studs-and-scrubs” lineups because…why not? At $6K if the other guys fare really well, all he needs to do is make the cut.

Additional punts: Kyle Stanley, Danny Lee (GPP), J.B. Holmes, Akshay Bhatia (GPP)

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PGA DFS Picks: Corales Puntacana Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

While the best in the world tee it up in match play, we’re digging for golden PGA DFS picks in the Corales Puntacana Championship, the alternate event!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Alternate event (to WGC Match Play) features weak field of 132 golfers
  • 2020 Winner: Hudson Swafford
  • The course: Corales Golf Club, Cominican Republic (Tom Fazio design)
    • Par 72 (7,600+ yards)
    • Coastal resort course with wide, easy-to-hit fairways and not much punishment in rough
    • Less than driver even works, and it’s largely a second-shot golf course where you can dial in your irons because there’s less run-out
    • Slower, paspalum greens
    • Wind, when it blows – and it looks to be about 15-20 MPH – favors the better putters and chippers
  • Correlative courses include El Camaleon (Mayakoba) and Grand Reserve (Puerto Rico Open)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring

The Picks:

Elite Golfers (DK $9,500 and up):

Thomas Pieters (DK $11,100) – The Europeans are led by Pieters and another Thomas (Detry), and while Pieters fares a little better in my admittedly basic and incomplete model (since we don’t have a lot of data from this course to go from), Detry has some experience here. Pieters isn’t a priority for me, especially at this price, but he’s worth a look in GPPs if his ownership stays low.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $10,800) – Grillo is No. 2 overall on my model and the elite ball striker typically plays these resort course well because they don’t have overly complicated putting complexes – and area where he struggles. He’ll be popular but I’m fine using him in single-entry GPP and will be doubling the field % in my 20-max.

Charley Hoffman (DK $10,000) – Hoffman could be the most popular player in the field and he’s pretty safe for cash games, though I’d steer clear in GPPs if you want some leverage. He had a T14 here last year, has a win at correlated El Camaleon and makes for a safe play in wind.

Nate Lashley (DK $9,500) – Lashley doesn’t pop overwhelmingly on the model but he won here in 2017 and finished fourth last year. I like him for GPP single entry and most any format, as he’s decent in wind as well.

Also consider: Thomas Detry, Danny Willett (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas

PGA DFS Mid-Range (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Brandon Wu (DK $9,200) – Wu might be best deployed in GPPs, and if his ownership stays below 13-15% I think we’re in business. The data I have says he can handle high winds (No. 12 in the field in SG:APP in windy conditions) and he’s a talented golfer who I starting to get some confidence in these events.

Lee Hodges (DK $9,100) – Folks might get turned off the high price on this PGA newcomer, but that should be a big help in GPPs, where he’ll fly under the radar. He played well in Puerto Rico (sharing the first-round lead) and he’s No. 44 on my model.

Sam Ryder (DK $9,000) – Ryder is shaping up to be a popular play but he’s had limited success in this event, finishing T12 in 2017. He’s top 10 in my model and he loves the wind.

Luke List (DK $8,900) – List should eat this course up, as he’s another player who can go low when he’s dialed in with his irons and peppering flagsticks. He finished T8 here last year and is a decent bet for another Top 10.

Justin Suh (DK $8,700) – Suh debuted here last year with a T14 but we don’t have much in the way of high wind data for him. He’s a risky play but e know he can putt and that usually helps in these conditions.

Chase Seifert (DK $8,000) – Folks must be looking at a lot of the same data as I am, because Seifert is fourth overall in my model, just $8K, and awfully popular on the ownership projections.

Brice Garnett (DK $8,000) – Garnett won here in 2018 and his recent form has been interesting, with MCs at the Players and Pebble Beach but a T25 at the Honda Classic and T5 at the Puerto Rico Open in similar conditions. I’m hoping he stays under 15% in GPPs.

Peter Uihlein (DK $7,800) – Uihlein makes for a solid GPP play this week, as his ownership should stay under 5% and he’s looking pretty good in my models. The wind might be an issue for him but if I’m 10% ownership or so he can’t hurt me too badly.

Also consider: Tom Lewis, Brandon Hagy, Sepp Straka, Will Gordon, Patrick Rodgers, Taylor Pendrith (GPP), Joel Dahmen (cash), Adam Schenk

PGA DFS Value (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Pat Perez (DK $7,400) – He’s fifth on my overall model and I love rooting for him. I’ll try to be around 15-20% in GPPs. Two of his three career wins have come on Paspalum, so0 he’s in play, even for SE.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,300) – Ventura could be the best putter in the field and is worth a look in GPPs. I won’t exceed 10% on my shares but he’ll be in some of my builds. He’s missed tow straight cuts but was T49 at the Puerto Rico Open.

Aaron Baddeley (DK $7,300) – Baddeley should also fly under the radar, and he’s another excellent putter who notched a T7 here in 2019. He’s No, 12 overall in my model and might end up making my single-entry team at this bargain price.

Roberto Castro (DK $6,900) – There are balanced builds and balanced golfers, and Castro fits the later definition with his even-handed approach across the focus stat categories, where he ranks no better than No. 22 (SG:APP) and no worse than No. 56 (SG:P). He makes sense as a value GPP play.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,800) – This really seems like a course where Hadley could dominate, as he’s No. 1 on my model – even though he’s a value golfer making his first appearance in the Dominican Republic. If his ownership stays under 7-8%, he’s worth a look as a core GPP play.

Brian Stuard (DK $6,600) – Stuard is too good of a golfer to be priced this low. He missed the cut in 2019 but finished T33 at this event in 2020 and sits at No. 34 overall on my model, ahead of guys like RCB, Dahmen and Lashley.

More value golfers to consider: Lucas Herbert (GPP), Fabrizio Zanotti, Bronson Burgoon, D.J. Trahan, Tyler Duncan, Josh Teator, Troy Merritt, Ben Martin, Paul Barjon, George McNeill

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

David Hearn (DK $6,400) – Hearn has made three straight cuts at this event, and while he’s struggled lately, he’s worth mixing in some GPPs at this price if that’s where you end up with your last golfer.

Chris Baker (DK $6,300) – Baker, who I’ll have decent shares of in GPPs compared to field, is a solid value this week based on his SG:APP numbers and Par 4 efficiency. He’s missed the cut here twice but he was T30 at the Mayakoba and he could be ready for breakthrough.

Miguel Angel Jimenez (DK $6,200) – I really don’t care how old Jimenez is, because he continues to score well and he’s in the Top 50 of my model. Ownership should stay miniscule, so I’m fairly interested in him despite the fact he plays the vast majority of his events on the Champions tour.

Additional punts: Jonathan Byrd, Shawn Stefani, Sebastian Cappelen, Johnson Wagner, Ricky Barnes

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PGA DFS Picks: PGA Tour’s Wyndham Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Wyndham Championship helping you find some winning teams in GPPs! All prices for DraftKings.

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full tournament field of 150+ Golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • Only nine of the Top 30 golfers in the world, so a weaker field with some stars
  • The course: Sedgefield Country Club (Greensboro, NC)
  • Par 70: 7,127 yard – Donald Ross design
  • Bermuda Greens
  • Not incredibly long, with eight par 4s between 400-450 and two reachable par 5s
    • We’ve seen a 59 here (from Brandt Snedeker in 2018’s Rd. 1), and wind not a huge factor in the Carolina burbs, so expect receptive greens and low scores
    • RBC Heritage a good course comp (in terms of crossover success)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Par 4s Gained (450-500),

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Brooks Koepka (DK $11,400) – He fizzled on Sunday but remains one of the most talented golfers in any field – especially when something’s on the line. I’d steer clear in cash games but I love him for GPPs.

Webb Simpson (DK $11,200) – The course history here is bonkers (he’s won here and has a bunch of top fives), and Webb, who even named his daughter Wyndham – I’m not joking – easily makes for the best cash game play in the field.

Justin Rose (DK $9,900) – He’s a first-timer at this venue who made 20 birdies last week and finished in ninth place. With the weaker field I’m perfectly happy targeting him in GPPs and hoping for a Top 5 finish.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Paul Casey

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Harris English (DK $9,300) – I’m having a difficult time making lineups without English this week given his upside, his consistent play over the past year, and his current form. He checks all the boxes and makes for a fine play in all formats.

Brendan Todd (DK $8,900) – Todd is riding a birdie streak where he’s made at least 14 birdies over his four rounds in five straight tourneys. He had a missed cut at the RBC heritage the week before that, but it’s obvious he’s turned a corner and belongs in this pricing tier.

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,800) – The price (and lack of recent top 10s) will undoubtedly scare off a few folks, but Kim has made seven straight cuts, has won here (2016) and finished in fifth place at this event last year.

Sergio Garcia (DK $8,500) – I expect guys like Reavie and Kisner and Snedeker to be popular this week in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, but I really love Garcia’s upside here. He finished T5 at the RBC Heritage and people easily forget just how low he can go.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,300) – Kisner is bound to be chalky this week given his performance at the Wyndham Championship and form, so my ownership will depend on just how popular he gets. There’s certainly plenty to like about his chances for a Top 10

J.T. Poston (DK $7,800) – The 2019 winner absolutely dismantled this golf course last year, and people are getting too scared of his form (T75, T30, MC, MC, MC). He likes the course and finished T8 at the RBC Heritage in June, so I’m fine using him in GPPs.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,600) – Varner, who is one of my favorite plays this week and should be comfortable returning to the Carolinas, made the cut last week (T29) after being added as an alternate. I love his ball-striking this season and there’s no reason he can’t post a Top 15 at Sedgefield CC.

Also consider: Billy Horschel, Jordan Spieth (GPP), Chez Reavie, Brandt Snedeker, Ryan Moore, Russell Henley, Christian Bezuidenhout, Maverick McNealy, Tom Lewis (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,500) – He’s a solid cash game play with plenty of favorable course history, and his play – while spotty over the past several weeks – does show some upside for GPPs as well.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,300) – Last week we had Henrik Stenson (MC) at $7,300, but now we get Norlander, who’s still massively underpriced with respect to his recent play.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,300) – He missed the cut at the PGA but this course is more his wheelhouse. He’s 4-for-4 here since 2015 and I’m much more comfortable with him in this price point.

Bud Cauley (DK $7,200) – Cauley was a late addition to the PGA and he fared well. In this event, he actually has some Top 10 upside at a very low price, and his confidence has been improving over the past few weeks. He can make birdies in bunches, which is what we need at this low-scoring event.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,100) – I’m jumping right back on the Straka train after the made cut in a difficult field at the PGA championship. His T33 at the RBC Heritage tells me he could land a Top 25 finish here, which could work in single-entry GPP and for cash games.

Cam Davis (DK $7,000) – I’d steer clear in cash games, but for large-field GPPs you might need a low-owned gem like Davis, who has put together a T12 at the recent 3M Open, a T32 at last week’s Barracuda, and a 22nd place finish at the Wyndham last season.

Ryan Armour (DK $6,800) – Another streaky player I wouldn’t touch in cash games, Armour has had some success at this venue in the past (T4 in 2017, T8 in 2018 and T22 in 2019) and notched two straight top tens before missing three cuts in a row.

Brice Garnett (DK $6,700) – The veteran nabbed a sixth-place finish here last season and is a feast-or-famine GPP play who is playing some solid golf this year as well with four Top 30 finishes in his last seven tournaments, including a T17 at the RBC Heritage.

More value golfers to consider: Matthias Schwab, Danny Willett (GPP), Jim Furyk, Aaron Wise, Mark Hubbard (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – The putter holds him back, but his T2G stats are decent enough to warrant consideration this week. His last name makes me hungry for a lucrative GPP finish, not just a big sandwich.

Seamus Power (DK $6,400) – Another birdie-maker who misses some cuts but posts a lot of Top 35 finishes if he’s around for the weekend, Power has 60 birdies and an eagle in the three tourneys he made the cut among his last four events. Sign me up.

Fabian Gomez (DK $6,400) – Gomez was T3 at the Barracuda last week with 22 birdies over four days, highlighted by a closing round 63, and he finished T13 here in 2019 – good signs for a golfer under $6,500.

Brian Gay (DK $6,200) – He played poorly here last season but a T6 finish at the Wyndham in 2018 could bring back some decent memories. Gay is a longshot to have another Top 10, but if he can cut down on his bogeys, he stands a chance at a decent result for near minimum price.

Additional GPP punts: Tyler Duncan, Harry Higgs, Peter Malnati

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PGA DFS Picks: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big paydayat the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS pricing this week seems to encourage a more balanced approach, but I’ll be certain to mix things up in large-field DraftKings GPPs with a few studs-and-scrubs lineups.

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • 78Golfers & No Cut
  • Stackedfield but no Tiger Woods or Justin Rose (OMG thank you)
  • Thecourse: TPC Southwind (Memphis, TN)
  • 7,238 yards, Par 70 – Ron Prichard (DonaldRoss disciple & redesign specialist – his style reminds me of DeverauxEmmet, A.W. Tillighast and Ross courses I’ve played
  • Bermuda Greens
  • VERY SNEAKY LONG course (adjusted forpar) featuring myriad water hazards that come into play and have eaten up5,000+ golf balls since 2004 – far and away the most of any venue
  • Another ball-striker’s course, withemphasis on long and straight off the tee
  • Previous to hosting the WGC FedEx St. JudeInvitational, TPC Southwind was the host course for the St. Jude Classic.Defendingchamp: Matthew Wolff (-21)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach& SG: Ball Striking, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Opportunities Gained, Birdieor Better %, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting (emphasis on Bermuda), SG: OTT & Aroundthe Green

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $10,900) – For a golfer like Thomas who’s interspersed three MCs with six Tops 10s (three of them Top 3s) over his last 10 tournaments, the advantage of playing all four rounds in a no-cut event is one that we should take advantage of, especially since he’s only the fourth-most expensive option in the field. The record at WGC events is good and there’s winning upside, but it might be wise to check in on his caddie before lock.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,000) – Rory finished fourth here last year in the inaugural event that matched TPC Southwind with this WGC venue, and he’s carrying a chip on his shoulder after losing the No. 1 OWGR to Rahm. He’s an excellent GPP play since he’s no longer the clear betting favorite, and his talent should rise to the top with four guaranteed shots at this course.

Patrick Cantley (DK $10,000) – I’m not hearinga ton of chatter about Cantlay, but I like his chances at a sneaky Top 3 or Top5 finish here. The $10K price might drive some ownership toward cheaper golfersand there’s the recency bias of his poor form at the Memorial (T32). Hisall-around game should translate well here.

Tyrell Hatton (DK $9,700) – Hatton makes birdies in bunches with his prodigious putting and keeps posting excellent finishes (T6-W-T3-T4 in his last four events) on his journey toward major relevance. I can’t imagine he’ll be chalky enough to scare me off increase exposure in GPPs.

Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger loves this place, as his first two PGA Tour victories came at TPC Southwind, and everything about the venue seems to point to another top 10 finish. I won’t go all-in, but there’s a case to be made for using him even at this elevated price.

Also consider: Jon Rahm, WebbSimpson, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,400) – Hovland may bemaking his WGC debut, but the pedigree is there for another leaderboard appearancecome Sunday. The youngster (first in this stackedfield in SG: Ball Striking, SG: Approach and Opportunities Gained)is actually underpriced considering his consistency hitting the ball long andstraight off the tee and right at flagsticks.

MatthewFitzpatrick (DK $9,000) – One of his most recent breakthroughs was the T4 he posted atSouthwind last year, and his game is heating up as he becomes more comfortablecompeting with the world’s best. The price will bother some folks so I’m morethan happy to go overweight on the slender 25-year-old with the elite shortgame.

PatrickReed (DK $8,800) – When nobody’s talking about Reed, he finds a way into the conversation– a trait that pairs well for GPP use in DFS. The masses don’t like playing aguy they don’t root for, and I’ll gladly cast my personal opinions aside for anedge in single-entry and large-field multi-entry tournaments.

Gary Woodland (DK $8,600) – Woodland is another guy flying under the radar this week, but the former masher has transformed his golf game to be straighter off the tee while maintaining his trademark distance. I know I’m in the minority looking his way, but I like Gary’s performance at similar venues and over the past several no-cut events, so I’ll be overweight on him this week.

AbrahamAncer (DK $8,400) – Ancer ranks 13th on tourin scoring average, which bodes well over four rounds at no-cut events,and his combination of form, overall ball-striking and affordability make himone of my favorite plays in the $8,000 to $8,500 range.

Matthew Wolff (DK $7,900) – The price jumped out at me, even if there’s plenty of risk involved, but Wolff has made some mental adjustments that have paid dividends in his last few events (excluding the Workday Charity Open). An upside-laden bargain in all formats who could see elevated ownership.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,600) – The reason he’s this cheap is because he’s only finished in the Top 5 once in 2020, and it was at the Genesis Invitational in February. But maybe the pressure if off this week and Kuchar can go back to the things that have led to success in in the past.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama &Billy Horschel (Cash), Sergio Garcia & Sungjae Im (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Ian Poulter (DK $7,400) – Poulter makes for a fine cash game play in the value range, and there’s still plenty of Top 5 upside for a guy who can scramble with the best and doesn’t mind missing a few greens – something that’s going to happen to everyone this week.

AdamHadwin (DK $7,200) – The WinDaily writers’ group text inspired me to take a closer lookat Hadwin as a cash game option, but I’m willing to consider him in GPPs if hisownership doesn’t skyrocket. This is the cheapest we’ll probably ever see him,so it’s worth jumping on.

KevinKisner (DK $7,000) – Kisner is a frustrating golfer in DFS who cares very little aboutthe emotional rollercoaster this community endures, but he’s actually got agreat attitude for competing in strong fields and seems to bring his game inWGC events. At this price, that’s all we’re looking for – a shot at a Top 10.

Chez Reavie (DK $6,700) – Ifwe examine Reavie’s performances at the FedEx St. Jude Classic (which werefull-field events with a cut) from 2013-18, we see no missed cuts and three Top15s in his four tries. His strengths include consistency on approach and aroundthe green, partially explaining his success at Southwind.

Shane Lowry (DK $6,600) – Full disclosure: I’m a huge Shane Lowry fan who got burned pretty bad by his MC at the Memorial. But that windswept gauntlet is a different type of course from what awaits the world’s best players this week, and since we don’t have to worry about a missed cut, Lowry makes for a tempting low-cost GPP play.

More value golfers to consider: Bubba Watson (GPP), Danny Willett (Cash) Rafael Cabrera-Bello (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Ryan Palmer

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,400) – Everybody’s talking about the hot-putting Canadian this week, so there’s a chance we lose the ownership edge we might have had without all the hype. But what Hughes has done recently in undeniable (two Top 10 finishes in his last three events, including a T3 finish at the Travelers and a T6 at the Memorial).

Tom Lewis(DK $6,200)– A T12 finish at the Rocket Mortgage in Detroit and T32last week show that Lewis is probably underpriced considering his upside. Aconsistent ball-striker with a pedigree for stiffer competition (T12 at the 2019Open Championship), he’s finally showing off the form to match.

Nick Taylor (DK $6,100) – Taylor skipped the 3M after missing the cut at Jack’s Place, but he’s popping on the WinDaily models compared to his near-minimum price and is consistent enough tee-to-green to make sense as a GPP play.

Additional punts: ShaunNorris, Robert MacIntyre, Keegan Bradley (large-field GPP only)

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