PGAPremium Insight Sheet: 2021 Honda Classic 3 years ago written by The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2021 Honda Classic. Inside is my player selection. Make sure to be on Discord Wednesday night to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall... 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: The Honda Classic jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi Our comprehensive PGA DFS picks returns for the Honda Classic at PGA National to help find you some great picks and winning teams this week.Course Notes:Weaker field of 150 golfers (only three of OWGR top 20 playing)Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes2020 winner: Sungjae Im (-6) over Mackenzie Hughes (-5)The course: PGA National (Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, FL; Tom Fazio design)Par 71 (7,125 yards)Water everywhere (again) – in play on 15 holes; just two Par 5 holesScoring is tough, so course management and making pars importantLarger, more receptive Bermudagrass greensWind will blow hard on Thursday, keep any eye on tee timesCorrelative courses include TPC Sawgrass & Scottsdale, Quail HollowAlready a bunch of WDs including: Doc Redman (positive COVID test) and Scott Piercy (contact tracing), Gary Woodland (contact tracing), Sam Burns (undisclosed)Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring,The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Sungjae Im (DK $11,000) – Since his T5 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions – a no-cut event – Im hasn’t placed better than T12 at the AMEX, though he’s made every cut and hasn’t necessarily hurt you. This week, he’s the top-priced golfer in a thin field and the defending champion — but he’s probably not the best option in cash games if you’re trying to build a balanced lineup. I won’t be overweight on the field, but I’ll have a few shares in GPPs based strictly on his ability to avoid bogeys and get off the tee well. The SG:APP and SG:ARG numbers don’t give me enough confidence to go all-in, even with the shortage of “elite talent in the top tier.Daniel Berger (DK $10,800) – On Monday, Berger was the betting favorite and recently cited a rib injury following his T9 performance at the Players. He’s supposed to do a pre-tourney press conference, so we should have a better idea of how the ribs are feeling the day before lock. For now, I’m downgrading him slightly; he actually said he was surprised he played four full rounds dealing with the issue. Joel, Michael and Sia discussed Berger on the breakdown, but the fact that he played through the injury last week – and he’s second overall on my model – makes me want to use him in GPPs if he’s good to go. Stay tuned.UPDATE: Berger has withdrawn from the Honda Classic and has been replaced by Rhein Gibson. Get him out of all your lineups and pivot to Niemann, Westwood or value. Incidentally, because the winds are going to blow so hard this week, it’s not a bad idea to leave some money on the table in a few lineups in large-field GPPs — since we could see the winning lineup not include any of the players over $9,500, and sneak a couple of serious value plays in the top 5.Joaquin Niemann DK $10,400) – Our process of elimination is being aided by some early WDs and glaring red flags with a few of the other “elite” golfers this week, so forgive me for arriving at Joaquin Niemann chalk and feeling a bit uninspired. He’s viable in all formats, he’s sixth overall on my model and he’s 11/11 on cuts since the start of October. So what’s the downside? We’ll have to keep an eye on ownership for our GPP exposure, but I’m starting to feel like he’s one of the safer plays on the board.Russell Henley (DK $9,800) – Henley might be the best cash game play of the top group when price, course history and model are all considered, and I’ll have plenty of exposure in GPPs as well, as he’s No. 1 overall on my model and his ownership might be more depressed than it would have been had he made the cut last week and had a finish higher than T11 in his last eight starts. He’s continually improve his finish in this event since 2016, and he won here in 2014. Henley will be the starting point for about 30-40 percent of my GPPs, and he’s shaping up to be an anchor on my single-entry squad.Also consider: Lee Westwood, Adam Scott (Cash)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Shane Lowry (DK $9,200) – If the wind starts blowing and folks are having a tough time making pars, I’m all the more interested in a guy like Lowry, who’s proven to be a trustworthy golfer even when conditions are dire. He’s in good form and his history at the Honda Classic (through three tries) yielded a T21 in his last go-round. The weaker field, the difficulty of the venue and his increased confidence both here and on correlative and other Florida courses is a combination for prospective success this week.Cameron Tringale (DK $9,100) – Tringale actually described the Champion course at PGA national himself as a “second-shot golf course” that plays tough because of the wind, the run-offs and the myriad hazards that abound. Tringale has always been decent around the greens and has his most difficulty on correlative courses getting off the tee (he ranks 131st in the field in SG: OTT when adjusted for this course and the others mentioned in the bullets). While it feels weird playing over $9K for Tringale, but he’s No. 18 in my model and if he can keep it in the fairways here, he’ll be in good shape to contend on Sunday.Chris Kirk (DK $9,000) – In his last two events, Kirk has waited until day 4 to shoot his worst round of the tournament, which may not bode well for his confidence heading into a difficult PGA National course. If he’s anywhere near 15% or more in GPPs, I’ll steer clear, but you have to consider a guy whose ball striking has been this good lately. He’s No. 15 in my model overall and the only thing that’s really held him back form better finishes in his last few tourneys has been his putting.Brendan Steele (DK $8,700) – This tour grinder has made seven consecutive cuts heading into the Honda this week. Aside from a MC in 2019, Steele’s course history is more than solid (8-for-9 with top 15s in four of last five; 36-hole leader before a T4 last year), and he’s popping (fourth overall) on my model this week. I’m already leaning his way in single-entry and could have big shares across the board in all formats. As a bonus, we’ve seen Steele navigate high winds well before, and Sia likes him this week too, so there are two more reasons to keep him in our builds.Matt Wallace (DK $8,500) – Wallace is another player who plays well in these types of conditions, and he has one of those names that Sia really likes for its simplicity and understated, boring inflection. Because it doesn’t stand out like Wallace himself, we could see ownership lower than what it should be this week. For that reason, and the important detail that he’s a longshot who just barely missed the cut here last year, we don’t need high ownership to stay ahead of the field. He’s definitely getting mixed into my GPPs (20-max), but I won’t have more than 10 percent shares.Also consider: Talor Gooch, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Keegan Bradley (GPP), Martin Kaymer, Ian Poulter, Wyndham Clark (GPP), Byeong Hun An, Russell Knox, Erik van RooyenValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):K.H. Lee (DK $7,500) – Lee missed the cut at Bay Hill and finished a ho-hum T41 last week at the Players, but I’m intrigued by the correlation between success here and at TPC Scottsdale – where he finished T2 in February. The South Korean sensation is adept at avoiding bogeys and is 25th overall in my model this week – making him a solid value play. Because of the wind, I’m looking at tee times and favoring the early Thursday times a bit, so Lee takes a bit of a hit because of that, but I’m still interested.Luke List (DK $7,500) – He’s let me down a few times with missed cuts, but he can really get off the tee well and that usually bodes well for success at this event, where he finished solo second (between winner JT and Alex Noren) in 2018. Add to that course history another Top 10 and a couple missed cuts and underwhelming performances, and you’ve got a golfer to use in GPPs and stay a bit ahead of the field in ownership.James Hahn (DK $7,300) – Hahn hasn’t played the Honda Classic in a while, but he’s tied with Lee Westwood for eighth overall in my model, he’s sprinkled three Top 15s in his last 10 tournaments, and his solo 10th place finish at the TPC course Waste Management gives me some confidence in his ability to do well here at this correlated PGA course in South Florida. He’ll be low-owned and makes for a prime target in GPPs.Ryan Moore (DK $7,300) – Moore has played here just once, but he made the cut, and he’s finished in the Top 35 in his last two tournaments after three straight MCs to start out 2021. He’s No. 14 overall on my model this week and he’s been playing steady enough golf to spike a Top 10 or 15 finish here, which works for me in all formats.Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – His proximity stats are second in the field (Vaughn Taylor is actually first and Russell Henley is third), and he’s been off a bit this year with a bunch of missed cuts mixed with a few decent performances. His putting and ARG numbers have bene bad, but if he can find a little magic on the short stuff, he could pay off handsomely in GPPs.Lucas Glover (DK $7,000) – I really like Glover this week in GPPs given his extensive course history, but I’ve been known to go a little overboard because of the upside he offers at such a cheap price point. He hasn’t had a top 10 finish since the Mayakoba, but there have bene some bright spots, including a 63 in round two of the Waste Management Open and some steady golf last week (in rounds 2-4) despite difficult conditions. His ability to avoid the big number could come in handy this week.Jim Furyk (DK $6,900) – Full disclosure: I’ll probably have Furyk on way too many teams this week given the venue, the fact that he’s fifth in my model (and #1 in the field in Bogey Avoidance), and the crucial factor that less-than-driver is plenty on a lot of these Par 4s. The veteran golfer (and shoo-in 2021 HOFer) is one of the best ball strikers the game has ever known, and he’s still got it going at over 50 years of age.Chesson Hadley (DK $6,600) – Hadley (No. 20 overall on my model) typically struggles around the greens, but he likes this putting surface and if he can avoid some of the testy run-offs and navigate the ball well T2G, I think he could be in play in GPPs. He’s in the price range where you don’t need to go overboard or even use him in single-entry, but I’m fine with 10-15% ownership in GPPs if you want some extra leverage for a high-upside guy with two Top 25s at this event.More value golfers to consider: Patton Kizzire (GPP), Zach Johnson, Henrik Norlander (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Harry Higgs (GPP), Adam Long, Mark Hubbard, Denny McCarthy, John Huh (GPP), Wes Bryan, Charl Schwartzel, Jason DufnerLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Pat Perez (DK $6,500) – It’s easy to root for Perez, who’s No. 10 on my overall model this week but missed the cut last week after 77-69 in the opening two rounds. I’m focused on the 69 – especially since the last two times he missed the cut he bounced back with a finish in the top 36. That’s not a bad trend for a golfer in this price range, and a guy who doesn’t make a lot of big numbers and has the game to put together some low rounds.Kramer Hickok (DK $6,400) – He performed well in high winds at the Bermuda, and he made the cut last week at the Players after getting in as an alternate with Brooks Koepka’s withdrawal. He’s No. 59 overall on my model, but he’s got some Top 25 upside this week if you need a cheap golfer to mix into 1-2 of your 20max GPPs.UPDATE: Kramer Hickok has withdrawn his name from the field, and will be replaced by Brandon Hagy, who I have no interest in. Hickok did not cite a reason for his WD.Kelly Kraft (DK $6,000) – Normally I don’t include players this far down in my model (he’s No. 124 this week), but Kraft finished T8 here in 2018 and he’s known for being a better player in high winds, which could come into play right off the bat this week. He’s a 1/20 max play, but he’s minimum salary and if your five golfers in a GPP build gets you there and you need a guy that’s $6K, I’d pick Kraft.Additional punts: Stewart Cink, Vaughn Taylor (GPP), Scott Stallings, Sam Ryder, Graeme McDowell, Tyler Duncan (GPP), Chase Seifert (GPP) 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi We’re loading up another PGA DFS picks column to tackle TPC Sawgrass at the Players Championship and finding you some winning golfers this week.PGA DFS Course Notes:Enormous, elite field of 154 golfersCut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holesNo 2020 winner due to COVID: 2019 winner was Rory McIlroy (-16)The course: TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra, FL – Pete Dye designPar 72 (7,189 yards)Water everywhere on this difficult, risk-reward golf coursePlays longer in March than it did in MayBermuda turf overseeded with ryegrass; dormant, speedy Bermuda greens overseeded with velvet bent and poa trivialisLook for big scoring spreads like at Bay HillWind probably won’t blow like it did at Bay Hill6/6 will be tougher this week in the huge fieldFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained, Bogey AvoidanceThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – Joel and Sia did a great job explaining how there’s a lot of different ways to approach your build this week in the breakdown, and there’s not really one right answer. But if I’m entering 10 GPP lineups, I’ll probably start with DJ and one of the $9K guys, be it JT, Webb, Morikawa or Cantlay. It’s a great spot to get some leverage by using the guy I think is most talented golfer in the field at twice (or more) the projected ownership. He’s talked about how he likes this venue in March more than May, and he’s No. 1 in my model by a long shot. He’ll be the anchor of my single-entry lineups and there’s really no good reason to fade him.Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Rory continues to struggle with closing out tournaments, and the fact that he’s technically the defending champ here doesn’t inspire additional confidence on a golf course that’s given him problems in the past. The risk-reward nature of TPC Sawgrass and its reputation as the “fifth major” lends more similarity to the Masters and Augusta National more than any of the other majors, and McIlroy has yet to “master” what it takes to win among the azaleas. He could easily play solid golf and score another top ten, but I won’t be overweight on Rory this week.Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – This is probably the week where I take my biggest stand on JT, because there’s a little bit of a discount and because I can’t imagine the field going too heavy on ownership on a player who’s missed two of his last four cuts. But there’s plenty to like about some of the things we’ve seen Thomas do in his recent rounds, and my model reflects it as he’s No. 3 on my list. The opportunities have been there and it’s exactly the kind of venue where JT could post a couple really low scores and find himself at the top of the leaderboard after two or three rounds.Webb Simpson (DK $9,500) – Webb is probably the best way to start building in cash games and he’s a candidate for single-entry anchor because of how well he’s played TPC Sawgrass over the past three attempts. He’s fifth on my overall model and he ranks second in the field (over his past 36 rounds) in SG:APP on correlative courses (including Bay Hill, Augusta National, TPC Boston, Shesan International and Quail Hollow). There’s no clear weakness to his game – he ranks 60th or better in every focus stat metric that matters this week – and the price is excellent.Also consider: Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Colin Morikawa (DK $9,400) – We don’t necessarily have to look to Morikawa this week, because the official records don’t indicate any course history here, but a little digging shows us that he started off last year’s event quite well (-4) in a bizarre first-round environment that saw no fans allowed on the grounds before the tournament was canceled amid the creeping horror of the pandemic. He’s an incredible ball striker and he’s made strides in his short game, but I’m leaning toward more shares of the next two guys on this list for the comparative discount.Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay is an incredible golfer from tee-to-green and he’s in the top 15 of my model. He’s yet to really break through at the Players but he has a couple of Top 25 finishes and his last six tournaments haven’t yielded a finish worse than T17, performances that included a win at the ZOZO, a solo second at the AMEX, and a T3 at Pebble Beach. The biggest knock is the fact that he withdrew from the WGC-Workday with an illness/dehydration, but that could have just been a stomach bug that really left him in the dumps – pun intended.Tony Finau ($9,100) – Like DJ, there’s no discernible reason to exclude Finau from your lineups this week, especially at such an affordable price. My biggest concern is his SG:ARG on correlative courses, but with the overseeding of these Bermudagrass greens, we’re going to see the surfaces a little more speedy – just how he likes them. The scoring opportunities for Finau (No. 10 overall on my model and No. 9 in the field for Opps Gained) should be there this week and I’m definitely going to be overweight on the field.Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – If you clicked the link about last year’s first round scores, Hideki fired a nine-under par 63 and tied the course record in the doomed 2020 event, and the ball-striking sensation seems to like how the greens roll here in March, as he finished T8 here in 2019 when they made the switch. Even if he struggles with his putter a bit, the T2G game should carry him through and get his name in the mix on Sunday.Paul Casey (DK $8,400) – Casey is a feast-or-famine GPP play who’s had a mixed bag of results at the Players, but he’s a good fit in this price range and he’s been striking the ball extremely well en route to some international success at Dubai, where he won, and locally at Bay Hill last week, when he finished T10. His T2G numbers on Pete Dye courses are solid, and he’s got the chops and nerves of steel to win at TPC Sawgrass.Adam Scott (DK $8,100) – Scott makes more sense for cash than GPPs, as he sports a more-than-decent course history here and has been making cuts lately – but has just one top 10 finish (T10 at the Farmers) since the U.S. Open in September 2020. He’s usable in tournaments as a last piece, but he’s not very exciting and not part of my GPP core.Tommy Fleetwood (DK $7,900) – Sia’s betting the farm on Fleetwood notching the low score of day one at an enticing 66-1, and that’s a really amazing price for a golfer as talented as Fairway Jesus – who’s been striking the ball quite well as of late. He’s got plenty of upside and seems to play his best in big events – and the Players qualifies. A top 10 finish wouldn’t surprise me.Cameron Smith (DK $7,900) – This is a tough call for GPPs, because game log watchers will see his recent finishes and be inspired, while course history hounds might get scared off by the missed cuts in 2017 and 2018. But the switch to March yielded a better result (he made the cut) in 2019, so I’m willing to throw out the previous struggles and focus more on the form and his attractive No. 34 spot in my mixed model.Will Zalatoris (DK $7,600) – Another talented golfer who saves his best golf for tough tracks and strong fields, Zalatoris is getting his first crack at TPC Sawgrass but seems to have a game that translates to any venue. He’s solid off the tee, he doesn’t make big numbers, and he’s a fine large-field GPP or single-entry tourney play at this price.Also consider: Viktor Hovland (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Joaquin NiemannValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Abraham Ancer (DK $7,500) – We can thank the soft pricing for Ancer making the value range at just $7,500 this week, and while he doesn’t spike a top 10 rank in any one key metric heading into the Players, he’s a top-notch ball striker who finished T12 (right alongside Rahm and Joel Dahmen) at this event in 2019. I’ll be ahead of the field in GPPs at hopefully around 20-25% in my 20-max, and he’s on the short list for consideration in SE.Russell Henley (DK $7,400) – Henley is my “off-the-wall, model-loves-him” GPP play this week, because he’s had a pretty rough go of it in his last four tries here. A little more course history research shows a T24 and T17 in 2015 and 2014, so there’s some room for optimism. It makes sense that when the course played a little faster tee-to-green, he had more success, especially when you consider his less-than-stellar SG:OTT numbers. But Henley usually avoids the big numbers, hit great approaches and has a decent-enough short game to compete with the best, so I’m mixing him into my GPP builds. Lanto Griffin (DK $7,300) – Griffin appears to be taking the next step forward in his career as he gains more confidence, and since his MC at the AMEX he’s posted four straight finishes of T26 or better, including a T21 at the API last week. It’s not a course where too many golfers play “lights-out” in their inaugural run, but he’s going to make a few of my GPP lineups.Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s made the cut in three of his last four tries and has a T35 and T16 in his last two runs at Sawgrass. He and Chris Kirk (No. 9 overall) are the only $7K golfers in the top 10 of my model this week, and Tringale’s ranking at No. 7 is largely a result of a solid short game, a high rank in bogey avoidance and SG:APP on correlative courses. He’s worth a look.Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,100) – He wasn’t on my initial list, but the more I dig into his recent form (T7 at the API) and the revelation that he was -7 in last year’s first round. The dude can putt like a demon and he’s solid around the green, so if he can keep it in the fairways (and there’s a lot of less-than-driver here so that should help his chances), there’s no reason he can’t find a Top 10. He’s probably going to be on my single-entry teams and I’ll be close to 40 percent in large-field GPPs.Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – The other of my $7K model darlings, Kirk makes for fine value in any format and his biggest weakness (putting) becomes a veritable strength on fast surfaces, which TPC Sawgrass should provide this week. He might be popular, as he’s projected around 11-12% right now, but I’ll have shares close to or exceeding that in GPPs.Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,700) – Grillo is the best ball striker you’ll ever see under $7K and his reputation of having a poor short game is probably the reason he’s not projected over 10% ownership this week. I like his chances of making the cut (3-for-his-last-4 at the Players with a T11 in 2017) and he’s played well in three of his last four events (T21-T11-MC-T22), and the missed cut at the Genesis was the result of a 72-73 opening two rounds, which isn’t that horrendous.More value golfers to consider: Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Kisner (GPP), Cameron Davis (GPP), Keegan Bradley, Alex Noren, Harold Varner III, Mackenzie HughesLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Richy Werenski (DK $6,400) – The main reason I’m considering Werenski is his immediate form, as he finished T4 last week at Bay Hill, and while normally in a field this size and strength I’d be scared of the golfers under $6,500, we’ve got a few high-upside guys this week. He’s not great off the tee, but as we discussed, that could be mitigated (like last week) with more “less-than-driver” than usual.Doug Ghim (DK $6,200) – Ghim could blow up and make a couple of double-bogeys in his first four holes, but he’s also capable of firing a 65 on day one and putting himself in decent position for making the cut and posting a top 25 finish. It’s hard to recommend using him at more than 10 percent, but at that rate you’ll be around 2x the field ownership.Jason Dufner (DK $6,100) – Dufner has a major championship under his belt and while that was a long time ago, he’s made four cuts in a row at the Players including a T5 in 2018, and he’s better-than-average on tougher courses with his ball-striking and prefers fast greens. Don’t go overboard, but he’s fine to grab in 1/20 since nobody will be on him.Additional punts: Nick Taylor, Rory Sabbatini, Jhonattan Vegas, Harry Higgs (GPP) 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
PGAPremium Insight Sheet: 2021 AT&T Pro – Am 3 years ago written by The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2021 AT&T Pro - Am (though there are no amateurs' this year). Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord Wednesday night to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pr... 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (or No-Am) jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Full field of 156 golfersCut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties2020 winner: Nick Taylor (-19)The courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links (host) & Spyglass Hill GC (one round)PB: Par 72, 7,051 yards; SH: Par 72, 7,041Course comps similar to last two: Torrey Pines and ScottsdaleNo third course, no amateurs this yearPoa annua greensIron and wedge play, short game (chipping & putting) most important because of short par 4s and small greens6/6 golfers making the cut will be harder this week with larger fieldWind also a factor on these coastal courses (it’ll blow harder on the weekend), and weather looks bad this week (55-50 degrees with showers possible)Recent winners include some scrubs and veterans (Taylor, Phil Mickelson in 2019, Ted Potter in 2018)Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4s: 350-400, Par 5s Gained, Proximity from 100-150The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,300) – A California native who is No. 1 on my model (Dustin Johnson was No. 2 but he WD), Cantlay checks all the boxes this week and LOVES this putting surface (my model ranks him at No. 75 SG:P overall, but No. 19 on Poa over his last 100 rounds). He’s got a single-digit ranking in six of my 10 focus stats, and he’s far and away my favorite to win. I can’t find a reason to fade him – ownership be damned – so I’m considering a 100 percent lock button in GPPs and I’ll wait for Sia or Joel to talk some sense into me.Daniel Berger (DK $10,100) – Berger is the better option of the other two golfers priced above $10K this week, the other being Paul Casey and his ice-cold putter. We can use Berger in all formats, including cash, although there may be a way to get Cantlay and plenty of other consistent cut-makers in there without breaking the bank. There’s no real weakness to Berger’s game and he only ranks higher than 33rd in one category: Proximity from 125-150 yards.Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – Last week was an important one for Spieth, because he found himself in contention on Sunday. Now he’s back on a course where he’s won and that shares more than a passing resemblance to the kind of second-shot courses he excels on. He’ll be popular in all formats, so I may choose to fade him in single-entry GPPs for leverage.Jason Day (DK $9,500) – His resume at Pebble Beach (11-for-11 with nine Top 15s) is the best in the field outside 50-year-old Mickelson, and despite two missed cuts in his last two tournaments, he does have two Top 15s since the start of November. We saw Brooks Koepka find his magic last week after a couple of MCs, and we know that he and Day share more than a few similarities as dogged competitors.Also consider: Paul Casey (GPP), Will Zalatoris (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Kevin Streelman (DK $8,900) – Streelman notched a T22 last week with four sub-70 rounds at TPC Scottsdale, he’s got a sparkling record at Pebble Beach (three straight top 10s including a solo second last year), and he’s No. 6 in my model. I’ll be using him as a staple in my single entry, though I imagine he’ll be popular as the “almost too good to be true” pick of the week.Max Homa (DK $8,800) – Homa isn’t quite as attractive as Streelman at this price in the mid-range, but he does have some upside at this venue (T14 and T10 in his last two tries here) and his birdie-making ability and prowess on Par 5s puts him in the GPP conversation. I’ll have some exposure, but there’s no reason to go all-in.Henrik Norlander (DK $8,700) – You can’t argue with Norlander’s recent results (T12-T2-T22 in his last three events), but the best he’s finished at the AT&T is a T25 last year. It’s very possible he’s figured something out (SG:APP is No. 12 in the field) and we know he likes this Par 4 distance and approaches from 125-150. Norlander could get popular for his recent play, but as long as he’s not over 15 percent we should be okay.Phil Mickelson (DK $8,600) – On courses over 7,100 yards I wouldn’t consider playing Lefty in a field this size, but he’s notched three straight top-three finishes at the AT&T, including a win in 2019, and there’s just no reason to assume that he’s not coming here to win again. His ownership appears to be holding at under 10%, and he knows these courses like the back of his hand. Why not?Cameron Tringale (DK $8,500) – Tringale is popping at third overall on my model, though I’ve seen that happen before in events where he’s missed the cut. I’m a little worried about how his talents translate to closing on Sunday, and he’s struggled at Pebble Beach in the past, with only one top 50 in his last four tries. Far from a cash gameplay, I’ll have some shares in GPPs because he should play well here eventually.Matthew NeSmith (DK $8,000) – My boy Rusty LOVES NeSmith, but he didn’t get into any PGS DFS action last week so he missed out on Matthew’s T7 finish. The model doesn’t hate NeSmith this week (No. 51 overall), and he debuted here last season with a T11, but the biggest concern is how his less-than-stellar short game will handle these small greens.Russell Knox (DK $7,800) – Knox has two top 15s at this event in the last three years and ranks very well in SG: APP (No. 6 in the field) when the wind is blowing moderately or harder. We know his putter can let him down, but I’ll be mixing him into some GPPs at this affordable price. Knox looks even better to me when I think about the conditions: he’s got a fine draw and he’s solid in this windy/rainy stuff.Maverick McNealy (DK $7,600) – McNealy loves the poa annua surface and seems to fare well when he’s hitting greens – a true GPP-only birdie-maker if there ever was one, but his approach game from 100-150 leaves much to be desired. Still – if the putter can get going and he can re-live some of the magic of last years’ T5 at this event, the sky’s the limit.Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Sam Burns, Cameron Davis (GPP), Brendan Steele (GPP), Andrew Putnam, Brian Harman, Matt Jones (GPP), Chris Kirk, Brandt Snedeker, Peter Malnati, Harold Varner III, Nick TaylorValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Scott Stallings (DK $7,500) – Stallings isn’t an exciting play, but he’s a veteran grinder who likes the event (solo third in 2018 and solo seventh in 2017) and he’s right around the cutline in my model this week. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.Jim Furyk (DK $7,400) – The model loves Furyk and he hasn’t missed a cut in forever. Like Mickelson, this is a course that favors his strengths and he’s far from finished on the Tour. The absurdly low price is a welcome invitation for any format.Ryan Moore (DK $7,300) – Moore is somehow at No. 4 on my model, but is form is awful and the course record doesn’t inspire me much. I’d restrict him to multi-entry GPP and low exposure at that, but he’s on my radar. He gets a little weather bump for his decent numbers on windy coastals.Harry Higgs (DK $7,200) – Higgs played well in his AT&T debut last year (T18) and we know he can get it done on the greens. He’s not the best ball-striker but he fares on week on Par 4s this distance and he’s a wild card play.Scott Piercy (DK $7,100) – The conditions this week could favor a golfer like Piercy, who’s played well at this venue in the past three seasons (all top 20s with a T10 in 2019). There’s no reason to lock him into all your lineups – but get some exposure to this tour vet and thank (or curse me out) later.Brian Gay (DK $6,600) – Once we get under $7K, the pickings are slim, but Gay is one of my go-to GPP punts – a guy with enormous winning upside despite regularly posting terrible results. A poor man’s Brandt Snedeker without the elite short game, he just seems to love playing here and on courses with small greens – with five straight made cuts in the AT&T and two top 10s in his last three tries here.More value golfers to consider: Charley Hoffman, Stewart Cink, Michael Thompson (GPP), Nate Lashley, Bronson Burgoon, Ryan Armour, Chesson Hadley (GPP), Vaughn Taylor, Troy Merritt (GPP), Kevin ChappellLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Tyler McCumber (DK $6,500) – He’s No. 67 on my model, and while his upside is far lower than a guy like Brian Gay, he’s made his last two cuts and has shown glimpses of decent golf. He also finished in the top 35 here last season so I may mix him into one or two of my 20 max GPPs.Nick Watney (DK $6,200) – The situation under $6,500 is pretty dire, but Watney stands out as a player who’s had success here in the past (solo second place in 2015 and T14 in 2017) and despite eight straight missed cuts, he’s No. 21 on my model this week. I’m a little freaked out by it, but I may work him into 1/10 large-field GPPs.Additional punt options: Rob Oppenheim, Grayson Murray, Jimmy Walker, Vincent Whaley, Chris Baker, Matt Every 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Field of 132 golfersCut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties2020 winner: Webb Simpson (-17)The courses: TPC ScottsdalePar 71 – 7,261 yardsAltitude means bombers will bomb even harder, but driving accuracy also importantFans not as much of a factor, going from 200,000+ to about 5KFast Bermuda greens6/6 golfers making the cut should be easier this week with the smaller fieldFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, Par 4s: 450-500, Par 5s Gained, Opportunities Gained, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda)The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm might be ready for a breakthrough at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after four straight performances among the top 16 in which he’s placed higher each time (16-11-10 and a T9 last season). His ball striking and short game make him a threat to win every week, but he and the next guy are 2-1 in my model, respectively, so I won’t be fading Rahmbo at TPC Scottsdale.Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – JT returns to the business of dominating golf courses with his complete bag of tools – which he’s probably anxious to dust off after a missed cut at Abu Dhabi and an unfortunate and embarrassing foot-in-mouth incident where he uttered a slur after a missed putt. There’s some merit to fading him in GPPs since he’s bound to be highly owned, but I always have a hard time leaving him off my favorite teams. He’s first or second in five of the nine focus stats listed above and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.Webb Simpson (DK $10,100) – The defending champion took last week off after playing both tournaments in Hawaii (T17 at Sentry TOC and T4 at the Sony Open), and he’s made 7/7 cuts this year. He’s not a long hitter, so he’ll have to deploy a different strategy than the bombers on the long par 4s and par 5s, but he’s won here before and can do it again.Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger works best in cash games where you’re fading the $10K and up range and looking for more balance, especially since he’s making cuts with such consistency and flashing top 10 upside. He’s not my favorite to win, but he’s finished in the top 25 in four straight events and in the 25-30 range in the previous two. Berger isn’t a complicated golfer to handicap – he just has a little trouble winning (three career, his last at the 2020 Charles Schwab).Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Hideki MatsuyamaMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100) – I was going to start off this tier with Sungjae Im, but I like Scheffler’s upside in large-field GPPs a bit more and would prefer Im in cash games in the $9,000-$9,500 price range. Scheffler didn’t do well in his debut here last season, but if he can get hot with the putter and make the cut, there’s no telling what he can pull off on Sunday. Probably not a staple of my single-entry GPP, but just the kind of guy I want to mix up my small-stakes, multi-entry GPP tickets.Will Zalatoris (DK $9,000) – There’s no course history to examine here, but it’s not an overly complex setup tee to green – so the talented Zalatoris is definitely in play here, especially in GPPs where folks could shay away from the price tag and the dearth of experience at TPC Scottsdale. There’s really not a venue that can throw off Willie Z, so I’m buying with the inherent risk of his short game lacking the umph to carry him onto the leaderboard.Bubba Watson (DK $8,500) – Bubba is a course horse (T3 and T4 in last two years here) and a guy who thrives on fast greens. His poor showing at the Masters and missed cut last week at the Farmers doesn’t instill confidence, but he’s No. 17 on my model and is worth a look in GPPs.Billy Horschel (DK $8,400) – If we throw out Horschel’s MC last week, there’s a lot to like about his recent play. He’s also 5-for-5 here with a Top 10 last season, and while he’s not necessarily popping (No. 49 overall) on my model this week, he’s viable in those balanced cash builds we’ve discussed – and even a few tournaments.Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Like Watson, Gary is a golfer who’s best days in the sport may be behind him – but there’s still plenty to like about the course fit and track record: he’s four-for-his-last-five here and won the event in 2018. If he can strike it well and seize on his opportunities this week, he might make for a solid GPP play in “balanced” builds.Russell Henley (DK $8,200) – Henley seems to alternate missed cuts with Top 20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale, as well as MCs with Top 30s in his recent play. When I take that pattern and add in that he’s on the beat for the better of those two scenarios this year – and this week – the fact that he’s No. 12 in my model (and No.1 in both SG: BS and SG: APP) gets me excited. He’s my favorite play for GPPs in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, and I dare say is viable in both single-entry and cash.Sam Burns (DK $7,700) – Burns is the sub-$8K player who’s “popping” the most on my models (No. 6 overall) and while he played well last week, the Sunday 75 kept him from a Top 10 finish. He’s 0-for-2 here but If he can turn it around with the putter this week – and he’s normally pretty solid with the flat stick but lost almost 3 shots to the field last week – he could make for a solid under-the-radar play in all formats.Matt Kuchar (DK $7,700) – Kuchar loves the Waste Management Open (4-for-4 with three top 10s and a T16 in his last four tries) and the price is significantly reduced since his game has taken a turn for the worse since COVID-19. Maybe this event will bring up some good memories.Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Harris English (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Corey Conners, Max Homa, Carlos Ortiz, Talor Gooch (GPP)Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Henrik Norlander (DK $7,500) – Norlander’s play can be wildly inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s playing well right now (T12 at the AMEX and T2 last week at Torrey Pines) and is tops in the field playing Par 4s (450-500). A first-timer in Phoenix, Norlander makes sense as a GPP play – but I’d steer clear in cash.Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – He’s No. 35 on my model this week with no glaring deficiencies other than a relatively weak putter. Steele has fared well here before (third place in 2018) but missed the cut in the last two tries. He’s a good bet for a bounceback and could be a viable cash game target at this price.Charley Hoffman (DK $7,000) – I normally don’t play Hoffman but this might be the week I jump aboard. The model likes him (No. 35 overall) and he’s perfect in his last five tries here with three finishes among the top 26 golfers.Harold Varner III (DK $6,700) – Varner is always a bit risky but he had Top 10 upside at this venue and is an excellent ball striker who’s popping in my model. Like many good ball strikers who haven’t won, his struggles are usually on the greens, so that’ll be something to watch this week.Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Higgs is the opposite of Varner (not a great ball striker, better on and around the greens), but priced similarly because he’s a damn good putter. If you’re down to under $7K for your last piece, you could pivot between him and HV3.Mark Hubbard (DK $6,600) – I like playing Hubbard in GPPs, and he’s actually 3-for-3 at the Waste Management Open – a promising stat for a guy priced this low. Nothing in his recent play is very promising, but the T9 finish last year points to an affinity for TPC Scottsdale and the low price means he could work for top heavy lineups that need some value plays.Denny McCarthy (DK $6,600) – McCarthy is tops in the field for SG:P and his flat stick keeps him in the conversation at most venues. This week, the elevation could help with his distance (he does play Par 5s well) and the fact that he’s made the cut in two tries here and should be low owned means he’s worth a look in GPPs.More value golfers to consider: Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Byeong Hun An (GPP), John Huh, Luke List (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik Van Rooyen, James HahnLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – Hoge has missed three straight cuts, but he’s improved with each appearance at this tournament, culminating with a T25 last year. There aren’t any sure things at $6,500 and under, but I’ll be overweight on last week’s secret weapon after his disappointing performances at the AMEX and Farmers.Padraig Harrington (DK $6,200) – Harrington has made the cut in four straight events and is near the minimum price on DK. His game around the greens is still solid, and while he’s a longshot DFS play, he’s easy to root for. Additional punt options: Brian Stuard, Keith Mitchell (GPP), Hudson Swafford 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Sony Open at Hawaii jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sony Open at Hawaii and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Weaker (just five of the OWGR Top 20) full field of 140+ golfersCut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties2020 winner: Cameron Smith (-11 in playoff over Brendan Steele)The course: Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, HIPar 70 (7,044 yards)Short, traditional course with narrow fairwaysScoring varies based on weather, but lots of chances to go lowSlower but tricky Bermuda greensWeather factor should be moderate this week (windiest on Thursday)Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Eagles Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Fairways Gained, SG: Around the GreenThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Webb Simpson (DK $11,100) – Webb is top-dog emcee this week and the only player above $11K on DraftKings, but this course, with its tighter fairways and silly little greens, is certainly a prime spot for him. He narrowly missed out on the aforementioned playoff between Cameron Smith and Brendan Steele and finished solo third, and this year he’s the co-favorite to win at 14-1 and the best cash game option out there.Harris English (DK $10,800) – English isn’t on my cash game radar this week, but he’s coming off his first win since 2013 (the third of his 10-year career) among a tough field at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week. You can’t argue with the form, and while he hasn’t played well at Waialae before, he’s shown improvement at the venue, ranks second in my overall model, and he makes for an excellent GPP play.Collin Morikawa (DK $10,600) – As a rookie, Morikawa notched a T21 last year among stellar company, and his ball-striking and approach game is tailor-made for this golf course. His putting is probably the biggest concern, though his stats on Bermuda seem to be better than other surfaces. I’ll have shares in the 15-20% range – right around the rest of the DFS tournament field.Daniel Berger (DK $10,000) – Berger seems to be everybody’s “sneaky” play in the top tier this week, which continues to push his projected ownership well above 20% and into the chalky zone in GPPs. I’m comfortable using him because of his ball-striking prowess and how well he’s played in 2020-21, but he’s far from a lock button to me – Berger has no top 10s in this tournament.Cameron Smith (DK $9,600) – Usually I don’t write up this many golfers in the top tier, but Smith is the defending champion and really seems to play well here, with three straight top 25s at Waialae (including his win). With so many value options in my player pool under $7,500, there’s a path to rostering Smith in GPPs with one or two other big-name players.Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Sungjae ImMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Ryan Palmer (DK $9,200) – There’s plenty to like about Palmer’s chances in 2021 at Waialae, especially with his recent form and last year’s T4 at this event. He makes sense for both cash games and GPPs, and it’ll be great if his ownership stays under 20%.Russell Henley (DK $8,700) – Henley’s course history is awful here, but he’s fourth overall in my model and is the best in the field in SG:APP – the top focus stat this week. I’m not overly interested in GPPs if he gets above 18% or so, especially since his success usually comes down to his putting performance.Kevin Kisner (DK $8,800) – I’ll be mixing in Kisner at about a 15-20% rate in GPPs and hoping he can get hot with the putter – as he usually fares well on Bermuda. There’s really nothing to dislike about Kisner, who’s a solid value in the mid-tier.Zach Johnson (DK $8,500) – A short course with small greens? Sign me up for a ZJ. I don’t care what he costs because if I have to ask, I can’t afford him. Seriously – Johnson has a couple of Top 10s here and while he’s not exciting, he had a T6 in November at the RSM. A solid cash game target.Erik Van Rooyen (DK $8,100) – He’s a first timer here, but we’ve seen other Sony Open virgins notch Top 10s because of their ball-striking and approach game – so why not the South African? Van Rooyen is 12th in my model and a solid GPP play who I’ll be overweight on compared to the field.Brian Harman (DK $7,800) – Harman has some excellent results at this venue, including a T4 during the 2017-18 season, and he’s a solid cutmaker who my model loves this week (No. 10 overall). He’s in my player pool and a good play in all formats.Keegan Bradley (DK $7,600) – I love mixing in Keegan into GPPs on courses that require a solid approach game, and while he’s not the best putter in the world, the quirky veteran has shown steady improvement at the Sony Open and seems to be figuring out the greens a little more each year.Also consider: Abraham Ancer (GPP), Sergio Garcia, Brendan Todd (GPP), Charles Howell (Cash), Marc Leishman, Talor GoochValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Tom Hoge (DK $7,300) – I’m not sure when the price on Hoge will come up, but I’m loving the fact that he’s so cheap with his soaring upside on a course like this. He’s only No. 60 in my model, but that’s because of his performance around the greens – which he’s fared well on before (third place finish in 2017 and a T12 last year). James Hahn (DK $7,300) – If you want a guy with similar upside to Hoge and lower ownership, look no further than Hahn. I may even build a few GPPs starting with both these players.Jim Furyk (DK $7,200) – Like Zach Johnson, Furyk plays his best on shorter courses with tricky greens, and I’m considering going up to about 40% ownership on this old codger in MMEs. He’s ninth on my model and he won here way back in 1996 – about year before Collin Morikawa was born.Kyle Stanley (DK $7,200) – You may have noticed a theme here, as Stanley is another solid ball striker who putts badly but has played well at Waialae in the past (T10 three years ago and 4/5 since 2015). I’d steer clear in cash games but will mix him into GPPs.Henrik Norlander (DK $7,000) – Norlander is popping on my model (eighth overall) and his T9 here last season proves there’s a good reason to include him in your builds. The price is simply way too low this week.Doug Ghim (DK $6,900) – I know that Ghim has some issues putting together four good rounds, and his debut here in 2020 was less than spectacular (MC), but if he can best his demons on the short grass, he’ll be a solid value under $7K.More value golfers to consider: Carlos Ortiz, Matthew NeSmith (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Mark Hubbard, Vaughn TaylorLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – Course history and metrics make Armour the best punt play at or under the arbitrary $6,500 price point. He’s missed three straight cuts but a T8 at the Bermuda Championship in October mean I’ll have a few shares in large-field GPPs. Jerry Kelly (DK $6,200) – He’s old and straight off the tee, and he’s notched two Top 15s here in his last five tries (two MCs). I’m comfortable using him at up to 10% in large-field GPP entries where I’m squeezing in stars and scrubs.Additional punt options: Roger Sloan, Sung Kang, Ted Potter, Chase Seifert 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Sentry Tournament of Champions Brian Tulloch 3 years ago written by Brian Tulloch In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Strong field limited to 42 golfersNo Cut2020 winner: Justin Thomas (-14)The course: Kapaulua (The Plantation Course) in Lahaina, HIPar 73 (7,596 yards)On a resort, but the Ben Crenshaw/Bill Moore design has been updated in 2019 to prevent too much bombingMore emphasis on approach and accuracyBermuda greensCourse knowledge helpsWind will play a factor this weekFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Ball Striking, Par 4s Gained, Par 5s Gained, Proximity from 100-125, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIRThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000) – DJ is the betting favorite to win, and he’s done it here before. My ownership will be in large part driven by the field’s. The issue is he’s tops in my model in five of the nine categories I listed above – and top five in three others. The lone outlier is his No. 11 ranking in SG: Putting on Bermuda. He’s too good to fade.Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – JT is only about a half-step behind DJ in price but doesn’t really lack in any major categories except putting on this surface – which we probably shouldn’t weigh as a huge factor. You’re probably going to have to pick your stud, because fitting both requires too many scrubs. I’d like to come in right around the field ownership percentage on Thomas this week.Jon Rahm (DK $10,400) – Rahm has been keeping limber and already has three Top 10s in three tries here. This could be the year he breaks through, and I’ll have shares in all formats. If the winds picks up like it’s supposed to, he’s a good guy to have in your lineup. The club change and new look probably shouldn’t hurt his chances here – but the mental aspects of golf are usual a huge part of his successes and failures on the course.*Xander Schauffele (DK $10,000) – He seems to thrive in no-cut events and he notched a win here in 2018. The price is correct here and Schauffele could end up being a very popular GPP choice by Sunday when folks fade the chalky Johnson and JT. If X-Man’s approaches from 100-125 are on point this week (he’s only 40th in the field in that stat), he could win again. He’s a way better play than Bryson DeChambeau at this venue – and he’s cheaper.*NOTE: Xander had a rough time during his COVID-19 diagnosis, and he hasn’t played much golf in the past few weeks because of the quarantine. He’s still an option for MME and large-field GPPs, but I might keep him out of my SE and cash games.Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Patrick ReedMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,000) – With all due respect to Webb Simpson, who I’ll have some shares of, Matsuyama is my favorite player in this price range. Although Deki is just No. 18 in my model, he overperforms in wind and he gained considerable confidence on the putting surface over the past few tourneys before the December break. I’ll be overweight on the field.Collin Morikawa (DK $8,800) – He played well in his Sentry debut last year and his game fits the profile for this course and the windy conditions. Morikawa is No. 13 in my mixed model and his performance here will hinge on his putting. I’m a big fan of this guy, and a no-cut event in a strong field might be just what he needs to get back some of his confidence that flagged a bit in late 2020.Daniel Berger (DK $8,600) – Berger will be popular, and there’s a few guys I like a bit better for GPPs coming in just under his price – but there’s no discernible reason to fade him unless he gets super chalky. At No. 5 in my mixed model, he and Tony Finau are the only two sub-$9K golfers in my Top 10.Cameron Smith (DK $8,400) – The Aussie debuted here in 2017 (to a T17 finish) and this is his first time back. There’s much more to like now about his game, and it’s very possible I like him more than most of the other golf experts out there. I’m most concerned about the conditions with Smith, who should have plenty of scoring opportunities if things don’t get too tough out there.Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,300) – He’s a horse for the course and last year’s fifth place finish is testament to that. Niemann is also No. 11 in my model and while he can get a little squirrelly around the greens, he’ll have a few days to find his mojo.Also consider: Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Harris English, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Abraham Ancer (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Sergio Garcia (GPP)Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,500) – I don’t think he can win here, but if we’re trying to find value pieces to round out our lineups, Munoz might be a nice fit. A top 15 could be good enough for cash builds and I’m not ruling out a few fliers in multi-entry GPP.Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – The no-cut event will help him, and he’s got a fourth and seventh place finish here in his two appearances. Leishman has excellent control over his ball flight and can go high or low when necessary, which makes him a solid value option GPPs because he’s one of the only sub-$8K golfers with Top 5 upside.Jason Kokrak (DK $7,300) – A first-timer at Kapalua, Kokrak punched his ticket at Shadow Creek with his first PGA Tour win. I may not be all-in on Jason, but I love his game and so does the mixed model – which puts him 10th in the field overall.Lanto Griffin (DK $6,900) – Lanto likes the wind and the course, as he finished 13th in his debut here last season. He’s one of the best value on the board and will be a staple of my single-entry GPP builds.More value golfers to consider: Brendan Todd (Cash), Ryan Palmer, Mackenzie Hughes (GPP), Kevin Na (GPP), Stewart CinkLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Michael Thompson (DK $6,500) – The mixed model numbers don’t indicate anything special with Thompson, but his wind performance stands out among the scrubs. I’ll give him a look in two or three of my 20 lineups in my 20-max GPPs.Martin Laird (DK $6,400) – Another first timer at this venue, Laird offers excellent value at $6,400 based on his ball-striking and ability to hit greens. Lots of folks are flocking to Richy Werenski at $6K, but a few more bucks gets you a better golfer overall.Additional punts: Andrew Landry, Brian Gay (GPP) 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Strong field of 78 golfers, including defending champ Tiger Woods!No cutThe course: Sherwood Country Club (Thousand Oaks, CA)Par 72: Approx. 7,100 yards (Jack Nicklaus design)Bentgrass/Poa Annua greensElevation changes, fast greens and cooler weather could keep scores in checkLonger hitters may have slight advantage because of temps, but it’s not a long courseGetting hot with the putter will helpFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better%, SG: T2G, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Around the Green, Par 5 scoringThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Xander Schauffele (DK $11,200) – Schauffele squandered a 36-hole lead at the CJ Cup as Jason Kokrak won for the first time on the PGA Tour, leaving Schauffele with his fourth second-place finish since his last win – way back in January 2019 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This week, he’s the most expensive golfer and makes for a fine play in all formats because of his accuracy off the tee, his “no-cut specialist” status and all-around complete golf game. Whether or not I use him in GPPs depends on ownership as we approach lock.Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – Rahmbo finished the 2019 season in the PGA Tour’s Top 20 in GIR and this week will have hopefully shaken off some of the rust that plagued him in Las Vegas. There’s no reason to fade him this week and plenty to like about his performance in the WinDaily projection model (second after Xander). I love him as a GPP play this week.Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton finished T3 last week at Shadow Creek and now has five Top 25s in his last six starts – made all the more impressive considering he’s played a limited schedule. There aren’t many players better T2G than Hatton, who brings plenty of upside to the ZOZO.Patrick Reed (DK $9,600) – Reed is eschewing mechanics and metrics en route to his approach – which places more emphasis on feel. He’s not the best off the tee, but he’s a SG hero with one of the best short games in golf. As long as he’s not missing every fairway, he should do well at Sherwood.Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Justin Thomas (cash), Webb Simpson, Tony Finau (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Viktor Hovland (DK $9,200) – After firing a disappointing opening-round 75, Hovland settled down and played the next 36 holes 9-under par ultimately finishing in the Top 15 at Shadow Creek. His domination of Par 5s could prove to be an enormous help this week (there are five Par 5s at Sherwood) as he seeks another PGA Tour win.Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Wolff got off to an abysmal start last Thursday with an opening round 80, and pretty much never recovered in the no-cut CJ Cup. He’s still one of the longest hitters in the game (averaging 311.6 yards per drive in 2019-20) and the SG: Off the Tee stat is an important one this week at Sherwood, which is not far from where Wolff grew up.Tiger Woods (DK $9,000) – Because he’s struggled recently and hasn’t played much, it’s easy to forget that Tiger won the ZOZO last year when it was held overseas. At the time, he was coming off a two-month layoff, so I’m not that concerned with rust, especially at a no-cut event on a course he’s dominated (five titles – all from the Hero World Challenge – at Sherwood).Daniel Berger (DK $8,900) – Berger fares very well in the WinDaily model and is a tremendous buy-low value after a few pedestrian finishes over his last four tournaments (T28 at Shadow Creek and T34 in the U.S. Open).Harris English (DK $8,800) – English missed the cut at the Shriners a couple of weeks back, but consistently finishes in the Top 10. He makes for a great cash game play and works for tournaments as well.Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,400) – His finishes have steadily increased week-to-week since the Tour Championship, and while he occasionally misses a cut, that’s not a problem this week. He’s a fine value in this price range and has the T2G chops to win here.Abraham Ancer (DK $7,800) – Ancer played some impressive golf at the Shriner’s with steady play in the mid 60s all week (4th place w/ 66-66-65-67), and finished T28 last week at the CJ Cup. If the putter can get hot again, he’s looking like a great play under $8K.Also consider: Bubba Watson, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Adam Scott (GPP)Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Paul Casey (DK $7,500) – The value play of the $7-8K range, Casey finished T69 last week but maintains plenty of upside in GPPs despite his inconsistent play this season. He’s a dynamic player who showed us at the PGA Championship how well he can play when he’s finding his groove.Justin Rose (DK $7,400) – I have my concerns about his short game, but I’ll give Rose a shot in some GPPs at a no-cut event based on his low price and the theory that his solid T2G game will eventually come around.Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker who’s stepped up his game lately,Munoz makes for a viable DFS play at a really affordable price.Cameron Smith (DK $7,200) – We said last week that Smith doesn’t seem to be intimidated by strong fields and he wasn’t – en route to a solo 11th place. If his ball-striking recovers, he could sneak into the Top 10 this week.Lanto Griffin (DK $7,000) – Ownership might be high this week since he finished T7 at the CJ Cup, but his price is still very affordable and he’s a solid enough putter to make up for a few wayward shots.Cameron Champ (DK $6,800) – Champ may be a longshot to win, but he’s really long off the tee and he’s the kind of outlier player I like using in GPPs. With no cut and his length possibly coming into play at elevation with the lower temperatures than normal, I’m a fan.Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Last week was Kokrak’s time…now Higgs is looking for his time to shine. In his search for his first PGA Tour win, a strong T2G game will help his cause,More value golfers to consider: Brian Harman, Ryan Palmer (GPP), Talor Gooch, Alex Noren (GPP), Byeong Hun An, Corey Conners (GPP)Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,500) – The WinDaily model loves him this week and I’m too intrigued by his upside to worry about the T65 finish last week. I’m jumping right back on board at this price.Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – As Sia pointed out on the ZOZO stream, Hoge is a really good player who just doesn’t hit it that long off the tee. He’s a longshot, but he’s got Top 25 upside this week.Michael Thompson (DK $6,100) – Thompson won the 3M in July and has struggled since. But he’s near the minimum price on DK and clearly has the upside to make sense for some GPP lineups.Additional punts: Joel Dahmen, Richy Werenski (GPP), Tyler Duncan, Ryo Ishikawa 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek jason mezrahi 4 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Strong field of 78 golfers replete with big namesNo cutThe course: Shadow Creek Golf Course (North Las Vegas, NV)Par 72: 7,500+ yards (Tom Fazio design)Bentgrass greensOne-time venue (it’s usually held in South Korea)Tough course (record is just a modest 66)Shorter Par 5s (except one at 600+ yards)Not really a desert venue, as Fazio “manipulated” the redesign to add rolling hills, trees and moreDistance control will be important, high-upside golfers preferredFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, Birdie or Better%, Par 4s (450-500) SG: Putting (Bentgrass)The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – While we don’t have any real course history to look at, we do know that Rahm is the type of golfer who performs well in no-cut events, and he’s the betting favorite this week with Dustin Johnson withdrawing after a positive COVID test. He could get chalky, but he’s a fine cash game play and should be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – It’s easy to forget how much of a complete golfer JT is, especially since he has been overshadowed by some of the game’s other (younger) stars. But this PGA tour veteran remains an elite ball striker who excels in approach shots from all distances. That’s going to help this week.Xander Schauffele (DK $11,400) – Fading Xander seems like a bad idea this week. The X-Man has an impressive record in no-cut events and is capable of dominating from start to finish, even in tough fields like this.Matthew Wolff (DK $10,000) – Is there a hotter golfer than Wolff? His form and makeup suggest that rostering him is a priority, and there’s reason to believe this T2G monster might come in at low enough ownership to make him a tourney-breaking large-field GPP option. It’s a second-shot golf course, and nobody’s more dialed in than him right now.Collin Morikawa (DK $9,500) – Recency bias could keep the masses off Morikawa, but he’s a great value golfer and high-upside player who belongs in the top tier. He’s 30-1 to win at the CJ Cup, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t take down this field and emerge victorious in Vegas.Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Tyrrell HattonMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Daniel Berger (DK $9,300) – Berger is another talented performer who’s elevated his game over the past calendar year, and I’ll have massive shares of him in lineups that use only one of the elite-tier golfers above. Roster construction is going to be tricky this week, but Berger offers some salary relief in all formats – without sacrificing too much upside.Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,900) – Can he back up his smack-talking comments criticizing Beefy Bryson now that he’ll get some extra distance from elevation? It’s a 7,500-yard course, and since I’m a massive fan of his T2G and short game, I’ll give him a look in GPPs.Scottie Scheffler (DK $8,800) – The PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year is one of the best values in the field, and he ranks inside the top 25 in par 5 scoring since the restart. He’s a birdie maker with plenty of GPP upside, even though his past couple of events (withdrew due to COVID, MC) haven’t gone all that well.Sungjae Im (DK $8,700) – Speaking of upside, I’m intrigued by Im’s recent play and think this could be the week he breaks through with a Top 5 finish. The ball-striking and approach game has improved over the past few events and the South Korean offers massive value at this depressed price.Harris English (DK $8,600) – Another solid golfer who continues to perform at a high level but hasn’t seen a huge price jump, English makes plenty of sense for cash game builds here. He’s not super exciting to roster, but he gets it done in all types of fields and events.Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Outside of a third-place finish at a remarkably tough Winged Foot at the U.S. Open and a T6 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, his upside has been lacking a bit. But there’s still a really dynamic golfer in there who loves to shine at big events, and the no-cut format should help him stay birdie-focused. Worth a look in all formats. Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Paul Casey, Brendan Todd, Gary WoodlandValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,500) – Niemann misses a cut once in a while, but that isn’t a problem this week, and his form suggests he could be the best value within the $7-8K range. He’s a wonderful player T2G, and his confidence is building.Si Woo Kim (DK $7,100) – Kim is way too cheap for how well he handles the slings and arrows that different golf courses will throw at him, and he offers a steady combination of solid approaches and serviceable short game. With three top-15 finishes in his past seven starts, I’ll have plenty of shares at this low price.Corey Conners (DK $6,900) – The first of three Canadians in this price range we have to discuss, Conners is a longshot to win (100-1) but possesses the game to do well here and should have a good chance at making the Top 20. I’ll have some shares in GPPs.Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,800) – Canadian number two has a little more upside because of his birdie-making ability and recent form (four Top-15s in his last five starts). The price works, too.Cameron Smith (DK $6,800) – Smith doesn’t seem to be intimidated by strong fields and he’s had success at this event in the past – albeit at a different venue. He’s also posted four Top-25s in his past five events and has soaring GPP upside under $7K.Adam Hadwin (DK $6,700) – Another Canadian who could benefit from the extra distance from elevation at this course, Hadwin is a textbook second-shot golfer who sometimes struggles with the flat stick. He does, however, offer plenty of safety for cash game builds in this price range.More value golfers to consider: Ian Poulter, Alex Noren, Bubba Watson (GPP), Brian Harman, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Marc Leishman (GPP), Ryan Palmer, Kevin Na, Dylan FrittelliLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Kevin Streelman (DK $6,500) – He’s solid T2G and excels in his approaches, and this might be just the venue for him to sneak in a Top 10 under the radar. Not a sexy pick, but worth a look in all formats.Cameron Champ (DK $6,400) – Champ occasionally struggles with his putter but the complete game has rounded into better form in the past calendar year. He’s no longer just a bomb-and-gouge player with little to offer outside massive length, and he’ll have no problem tackling the longer holes here.Lanto Griffin (DK $6,300) – Griffin had a couple of Top 20s heading into the U.S. Open, and while he missed the cut last week, he made seven straight before that. With those concerns off the table, we can safely consider him as a viable punt option with Top 20 upside.Additional punts: Harry Higgs, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge, Tyler Duncan 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
