daily fantasy basketball

Happy Thursday my NBA DFS friends – after a monster Wednesday slate we turn our sights to a solid 4 game Main Slate here with some stars, some scrubs, and a whole lot of ways to attack our builds on DraftKings and FanDuel. We get an extra 30 minutes to lock tonight with this slate kicking off at 7:30 PM EST – so let’s get started!

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Opening up this four-game Main Slate we have a ton of injury news we know already – specifically that the Clippers trip of Kawhi, PG13, and PatBev are all out again but we also have big-time news to watch as it relates to the status of Devin Booker and basically the entire Miami Heat roster (again).

It does sound like Devin Booker is likely to return for the Suns and to me, this is the biggest piece of news I am waiting on as it would completely change how we attack the late-night hammer of Warriors-Suns.

Building My Core & Taking a Stand!

On short slates, like we have today, star power drives cash lines. It is just that simple. Looking back at the winning scores two nights ago on a similar three-game slate, winning GPP builds had 3-star cores of Trae Young, Rudy Gobert, and Boogie Cousins who all put up 50+ DK points. Anchoring to those stars is the key here again tonight in my opinion.

So tonight, the first question you have to ask yourself is which stars you are paying for.

The first player that you have to make a decision on is Damian Lillard ($10.6K). This is a great game environment for Dame, we know he gets all the usage with McCollum and Covington out again but I think it is fair to question whether the price is “worth” the investment.

In the four games since McCollum has been sidelined, Dame has put up 50, 50, 57 and 60 DK points – strong, but not once returning the type of must have value that his near $11K price tag would require.

When you take that into the context of this slate, one without a ton of obvious punt value, I wonder if paying the premium for Dame at the cost of the rest of your roster is optimal.

Instead, one way to attack this Portland side would be to fade Dame – getting your exposure with cheaper plays like Rodney Hood ($4.3K) and Carmelo Anthony ($5.6K) – in the hopes that they have ceiling scoring nights which in turn would mean that Dame would not.

The other side of this game with Houston has the star power but, maybe too many cooks in the kitchen. With Christian Wood coming back and now John Wall and Victor Oladipo both running the backcourt – this once barren value-heavy Rockets team may be – overpriced?

I know the Portland-Houston game will be a popular target tonight but if you look at the pricing as it relates to DFS – I think taking a stand and fading this game and hoping that the multitude of players available tonight with only one ball in play – means far more floor performances than ceilings.

Time to Pivot

Now if I am pivoting off this game, we still need star power to minimally match that game if it does hit. Sorry Clippers/Miami but I said star power – so we will go ahead and reserve you for the value fill-ins!

This leads me to the Suns/Warriors – a game that has multiple stars we can anchor to with ceiling potential.

Steph Curry ($9.7K) gets the same match-up we just saw Shai Gilgeous Alexander put up 49 DK points against last night, or Jamal Murray who put up 44 and 46 against in the previous games. The volume for Steph remains sky high especially behind the arc as he is the only player in the NBA averaging double-digit 3PA over his last five games. If Curry gets hot – he wins you the slate – its just that simple. I will take him at a $1K discount over Dame tonight.

The Suns choices hinge a bit on the status of Devin Booker ($8.3K) but I think building early in the day with him at your G spot on DK is ideal because if he is ruled out, you can simply pivot to Chris Paul ($8K) for a few hundred less. Using DraftKings position flexibility on a small slate like this could be a huge advantage if we do not have news before lock – so put Booker at your G spot since he is the more expensive player and if we get late news – you have the easy pivot and the salary to make it work.

I was all over DeAndre Ayton ($7.8K) early yesterday but we talked about in Discord that if Al Horford was in for OKC, it made sense to move off him. Well tonight, we have no such worries on the Golden State side as the Looney/Wiseman duo is primed to be taken for a ride here.

Take a look at what recent Centers have done to Golden State – Naz Reid (44 DK points), Mitchell Robinson (36), Trez Harrell (33) and what is interesting is that none of them played more than 28 minutes. In fact the only Center to play over 30 minutes against the Dubs the last two weeks was Nikole Jokic, who dropped a 65 DK point triple double.

Ayton has played 35 minutes now in five straight and 7 of his last 8 games and so if we are seeing Centers smash on a PP/M basis with sub 30 minute run – why would we not take the 35 minutes of Ayton in the same match-up?

A Curry/Ayton and either CP3/Booker core mini stack in this late night game will be at the heart of my builds today and has the kind of upside to match any other 3-some you can build around.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Starting my builds tonight with the core above leaves me with a ton of flexibility as I would have $4.8K per player for the rest of my build and so the decision then becomes do you go more balanced OR can you jam in one more stud.

My dude Adam Strangis in his Core 4 today – gave you a guy I think you simply need to add to the core I outlined above and his write up is spot on. Anthony Davis ($8.9K) is just too cheap and I think we have to price enforce him on DK tonight – it is that simple. Add him to my core above – you have four stars and roughly $4K per player for the rest of your build.

Next step – head to our custom projections, lock in that value and let’s start cashing!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Happy Hump Day my NBA DFS friends, we are back with another 12 games on this NBA Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel and a whole lot to break down! As always on slates like this, we need to do our best to condense our player pool, watch and react to news as it opens up value – and prioritize the stars that can win you the slate!

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Before you dive into this 12 game slate, I want you to take a second to remember what Monday’s 10 game slate was like. Remember D’Angelo Russell getting ruled out, then Robert Covington and Joel Embiid, and all of a sudden we had this weird Carmelo Anthony/Dwight Howard chalk value night in 2021?

I bring that up because with 12 games on tap tonight – you better believe we will see enough wild news today to push plays to the forefront our models, projections and ultimately our builds – that we are likely not even thinking about at first look.

Now at first glance, I will be honest – my gut instinct was to go right back to the same general spots we did on Monday with the Warriors/Wolves and Nets/Hawks.

Steph Curry is simply too cheap. Clint Capela is going to dominate this Nets interior like we just saw Bam Adebayo do – but you know what – my man Adam Strangis did such a good job of breaking down those guys in his Cash Game Breakdown today (also FREE) – that I will let him handle those guys.

I love those plays – but let me take a different turn today here in Picks and Pivots and go a different route to help you think through some different options.

Building my GPP Core: Part One

Looking over this slate, there are so many great game environments that I do think you can let ownership dictate a bit where you land. If games like the Nets/Hawks end up being the spot to attack we have enough viable pivots to capture upside elsewhere (if we choose).

One of the first spots for me is the Wizards and Pelicans.

Now Washington is on the tail end of the B2B and that likely means no Russell Westbrook which when you add on that the Wizards have still not welcomed back any of Thomas Bryant, Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura, Ish Smith, Moe Wagner and Trow Brown Jr. – well, you start to see where we are going.

All that likely means all the usage and fantasy production for one Bradley Beal ($10.2K). The last time Westbrook sat, against the Suns on January 11th, Beal put up 64 DK points with just 3 combined rebounds/assists away from a triple-double.

The interesting thing about that game – the Wizards actually had the depth that night – with Rui, Bertans, and Wagner all being able to play – so imagine tonight what that could mean for Beal? If the Wizards ran a 9 man rotation last night with Westbrook, can we project Beal and just 7 others to get meaningful minutes tonight? If so – hello ceiling game.

While Beal sans Westbrook may be what draws you to this game – I actually think it is the other side of this game that I have the most interest in and that is with a New Orleans Pelicans.

The Pelicans were a team I loved to stack last season. LOVED. They were young, athletic and played at a breakneck speed. It was DFS gold.

Then Stan Van Gundy killed my dreams.

The Pelicans rank 23rd in pace this season and 20th in offensive efficiency – not exactly metrics that make you want to stack them up. However, I think tonight is the spot to do so.

We know Washington plays not only at the fastest pace in the NBA but they also rank bottom 3 in defensive efficiency.

A similar team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, both in pace and defensive inability, just played New Orleans and in that game, the Pelicans ran 108 possessions, the fastest such pace they have played at all season and well would you look at that – their young core starters saw their fantasy output increase. Weird huh?

Zion Williamson ($7.8K) played 38 minutes in that game, with a 19/11 double-double and 42 DK points and that was with poor shooting (just 37%). Remember the Wizards are down to Robin Lopez and Alex Len in the middle and we just saw Boogie Cousins dominate this Washington frontcourt last night to the tune of 50 DK points. Who exactly is slowing Zion down tonight? The answer is nobody.

Lonzo Ball ($5.6K) finally saw his ceiling reached last game as he hit 6x value on the back of 34 DK points in 30 minutes. Ball excels in up-tempo games where his peripheral/counting stats can prop up his DFS scores and we saw that against Minnesota with strong assists, rebounds and blocks/steals.

Ball is the perfect compliment to someone like Zion if you are mini-stacking because he doesn’t need to score to hit ceiling. In fact, he hit just 4 shots against Minnesota and still got to 6x value!

Building my GPP Core: Part Two

The other game that really intrigues me tonight is the Thunder-Suns, a game with injury news to open up value and seemingly under-priced star power.

The Suns will be without Devin Booker again tonight, which means Phoenix becomes the Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton show. At mid $7K price points on DraftKings, you are looking for 45 DK points to get that coveted 6X value and the metrics would tell you that this year with Booker off the court, this duo is averaging 44 DK points per 36 minutes of court time.

Now, not to over simplify, but if the “typical” production in this scenario puts them right at this range and we know they have upside for more – why are we not just locking them in tonight?

Al Horford may return tonight, but if he does not – remember Enes Kanter just dropped a 22/13 line on this same under-sized and under-manned OKC front court.

The OKC side of this game is going to be a bit more wait and see as both George Hill AND Al Horford are questionable. If they miss again tonight it means more run for Isaiah Roby and potentially another start for Theo Maledon.

The one guy that intrigues me on the OKC side, besides the obvious in SGA – is Lu Dort ($4.8K). The Suns without Booker last game really struggled to defend the wings/forwards of Denver as Michael Porter Jr. dropped 30 real-life points and 46 DK points off the bench which included a whopping 10 3PA.

We know Dort is not afraid to shoot and we only need to look back a few games where he threw up 11 3PA against the Bulls on his way to 46 DK points. At this price point, it sounds crazy, but he has demonstrated 10x upside while the floor is well – quite low – so it is best reserved for GPP’s but could be a slate breaker in this match-up.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

At first glance this slate looks incredible. I am sure we will get insane news that throws all our best laid plans out the window but do not fret and do NOT chase every bit of news.

Value is going to come. It happens every slate of this size. So be patient, wait on it and react but do not overreact.

A good example of this came last slate for me. I had my core build on Monday with a $3K slot waiting and when the Joel Embiid news hit, all of a sudden I had value but I did not have enough to get to Dwight Howard. Rather than pay down from guys in my core to jam in Howard, I kept my core as it was and instead pivoted to Tony Bradley who ended up being incredible leverage and PP/$ value. Sometimes, you just need to take what the slate gives you!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Happy Tuesday my NBA DFS friends – after a wild Monday slate with injuries at every turn and non-stop value that resulted in a superstar night led by a slate-breaking Luka Doncic 84 DK point outing – we are back with a much more manageable three-game slate here on Tuesday.

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

I have to say – kudos to DraftKings tonight. We got the news yesterday that all of Kawhi Leoanrd, Paul George and Pat Beverley would sit and I was half expecting to open today’s slate and see all this obvious $3-$4K value in LA. However, DK went super aggressive with guys like Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard and Lou Williams who were all priced under $4K last game and they pushed them up to $6K+ price points tonight.

I absolutely love it. Seriously – a three-game slate with multiple Clippers chalk value would have been a snoozefest and it would have made every build nearly identical.

Now, you are actually going to have to think through your builds and make tough choices because the value – by and large – is not really even value.

The one spot this COULD change is in Atlanta with Trae Young and Clint Capela questionable to play. Rajon Rondo ($4.2K) drew the start on Saturday with Trae sidelined and racked up 23 DK points in 30 minutes and would become one of the best value plays on the slate.

With the Hawks on the front end of a B2B with the Brooklyn Nets coming to town tomorrow, I think it is fair to wonder if Trae/Capela take one more night to rest against the LAC B Squad.

Building Our Core:

Let’s just not over think this, shall we?

The Washington Wizards and Houston Rockets game is a DFS goldmine. A glistening beacon of fantasy goodness nestled in between the turd sandwich that is the Clippers bench versus a potential Hawks JV squad and the late-night “hammer” of Knicks-Jazz that will be played at a pace that would make the 1929 Princeton offense jealous.

The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA this season with a corresponding 2nd worst team defense rating which makes them the ideal spot to target for and against in DFS builds. Over the last 5 games, the Wizards rank 1st in pace while the new-look Rockets rank 4th – setting this game up to be a track meet with a side of REVENGE!

John Wall versus Russell Westbrook. Yes please.

With the Wizards being super short-handed due to COVID protocols – starting any and all builds with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook seems like the easiest path forward. The only “concern” would be that Westbrook is eased back in after playing just 25 minutes against the Spurs over the weekend.

With this game against his former team and the fact Westbrook had a day off, this feels like a spot where 30+ minutes is likely and unless we get some confirmation of a hard sub-30-minute cap – I am going to take the superstar raw points on a three-game slate.

What this also would do is take me off the fringe Wizards – if Westbrook is back playing normal minutes and commanding his usual usage – that means that the Jerome Robinson and Isaac Bonga’s of the world can get bent. Sure the minutes will be there but I am not going to play potential chalky Wizards forwards who will take their cue from PJ Tucker on the other side of this game and just chill in the corner for 40 minutes.

Speaking of Tucker – well more so speaking of his Rockets teammates – this looks like the perfect spot to stack up the Rockets trio of John Wall, Victor Oladipo and DeMarcus Cousins.

With Christian Wood doubtful, the price on Boogie at $6K is laughable. Seriously – good luck Robin Lopez and Alex Len.

This will be the first game that Wall/Oladipo share the backcourt together in Houston and if there was ever a time to take a shot on them, it’s this kind of fast-paced match-up against a league-worst defense. The pricing on both is fair enough where you can see profit potential assuming this game does what Vegas thinks it will. Once we get all the injury news, there is a likely path here with this game total is 20 points higher than either of the other two games.

Stack it up. Get Westbrook/Beal and run it back with Boogie/Wall/Dipo.

On 3 game slates, I want to target the raw point upside and this 5 man core, assuming no minutes limits, has that in spades.

Think about it – if Trae/Capela were to sit – the only other “stars” you have to worry about are Julius Randle, Donovan Mitchell, and maybe Rudy Gobert. So unless you are stacking that game – why not plant your flag with the Washington/Rockets stars in the best game environment of the slate?

Now – this core leaves you just under $3.3K for the last 3 spots in your build and the value really is not obvious – especially at super weak forward spots on DraftKings.

This is where you can mix and match some of the fringe bench value though to make it all work. As an example – Georges Niang ($3.2K) has averaged 16 DK points per game the last 6 games, putting him on pace to return 5X value at this price point.

Or you can flip to the Knicks side of that game – with Reggie Bullock already ruled out – it opens up a path to second team usage for players like Kevin Knox and Obi Toppin.

Both of these players have carved out roles on the Knicks second unit, with 15-18 minutes off the bench each last game against Portland in a similar spot with Bullock out. What you are really hoping for her however is to nail the game script – and on a three game slate, I think it is fine to try and play the blow out angle.

The Jazz are favored by 11 in this game and we have already seen this season where Knox (31 DK points against Charlotte) and Toppin ( 23 DK points against Boston) have hit 7-10x ceiling games in blow out scripts.

Even if the game stays close, these guys will get their minutes and at that point, you are hoping they hit their 5x and you “survive” but if the game script goes the right way – you are looking at two punts that could light up your DK lineup with 10x flames!

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This slate is super cut and dry to me – I am going to anchor to the Washington/Houston game and plant my flag in the best game environment with the superstar plays that can win me the slate.

If you liked what you read here today – come gives us a try – you can get your first month of all access DFS at Win Daily sports for just $13.50 which is 55% OFF the monthly price in honor of Super Bowl 55.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Happy Monday my NBA DFS family – after an awesome weekend of sports, capped off with a HUGE day for the Win Daily Sports family yesterday, we are back with a 10 game slate to kick off this new week. Before we get started though – a HUGE congrats to our very own StixPicks for his massive win in NFL on Sunday, capping off a monster season for our lead NFL DFS analyst!

With Super Bowl 55 just a few weeks away, we are rolling out a SUPER promo to join the Win Daily Sports family as you can get a month pass of our All-Sports Gold Membership for 55% off!

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

With a massive 10 game NBA DFS slate ahead of us, it is no surprise that we open up to a ton of high-end injury news with players like LeBron James, Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry, Joel Embiid, D’Angelo Russell and Aaron Gordon all questionable to play.

With the slate being as large as it is, narrowing down our player pool to build a core is key and there are two games that jump out to me at first look – Nets/Heat and Warriors/TWolves.

Golden State, Minnesota and Brooklyn are three of the five fastest pace teams in the NBA this season and while we have talked about the Nets defensive struggles since the big Harden trade (dead last in the NBA) – the opposing Heat rank amount the bottom 10 as well coinciding with the loss of Jimmy Butler and the rest of the COVID crew.

Now what stands out in both games is the star power – and I think anchoring to 2-3 stars here is going to be key.

The easiest of which is Bam Adebayo ($8.5K) – a player we were all screaming to play against the Nets just a few days ago and all he did was drop 63 DK points and his, price….wait for it – DID NOT CHANGE. The Nets have absolutely no interior defense right now – Bam should destroy them in this spot once again.

The Nets run back is likely more position based than anything else (more on that in a moment) – which leads me to use Kevin Durant ($10.4K) and his PF eligibility on DraftKings. Durant continues to lead the Nets in usage when sharing the court with Kyrie/Harden (30% last game) and gives you a high ceiling run back at a weak position.

Now if you want run back with Brooklyn and need the salary – Kyrie Irving ($9K) remains the most cost-effective way as he has gone for 50 DK points per game over his last 3 outings and has not seen his price change at all. You can use him at Guard on DK with the two late-night hammers we are looking to build around next.

Part of the reason I initially overlooked the Nets backcourt, is my priority at PG is Stephen Curry ($9.2K) who is just simply – too cheap – in the fastest projected pace game on the slate against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The one interesting run back here for me is D’Angelo Russell ($8.2K) – a player with a 30% usage rate and 1.3 FP/M with Karl Anthony-Towns off the court. D-Russ has slate breaking upside in this kind of fast-paced match-up and it is rare to get a player with this kind of usage and volume for just $8K.

Now – one thing we cannot overlook in these games is the potential for stacking up value pieces especially on Miami. With Moe Harkless out and KZ Okpala questionable tonight, the Heat will likely use Andre Igoudala ($3.6K) in a big role against Durant an company. Iggy saw most of the 4th quarter run for Miami last game once Harkless went out and is a great way to get cheap exposure to this game.

On the Minnesota side, we have similar value potential both in the mid-range and at the low-end. Jared Vanderbilt ($5K) is one of my favorite pairings with D-Russ as you can get the inside/out combination with Vanderbilts ability to rack up not only scoring but the peripheral counting stats inside.

A cheaper option is Jaden McDaniels ($3.4K) who has played 23 MPG the last three outings and while the results have been inconsistent (30, 12 and 12 DK points) – that has been largely driven down the last two games by a combined 3 for 16 shooting. The volume and minutes are there and this is a guy who pushed for 9=-10x upside at this price just a few days ago.

Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

With it being a 10 game slate, you know the value is coming – and one thing I love to do at first glance is build around my core games and just wait on the news. Taking a stand on the Nets/Heat and Warriors/Wolves gives you arguably the two best game environments on the slate with 4 man star power that could lift you to a massive win.

The key – sit back now and watch the news and react to value. Lock into our custom projections and talk to us in Discord – the paths are going to be there tonight for Stars and Scrubs again – I promise you.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!