Welcome back my NBA DFS friends, as we have a solid 5 game slate here which kicks off at 7:30 PM EST on Thursday. We have an interesting slate here tonight and one that could become interesting for GPP’s as we may get some clear chalk plays and builds as a result. Let’s dive in!
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Opening up this five-game slate, the first thing that jumped out to me was the potential for value in Orlando with both Evan Fournier and Cole Anthony listed as questionable tonight. For a team already missing Aaron Gordon, the Magic could be the late-night value hammer tonight.
What this could lead to is a night where guys like Frank Mason III, James Ennis, and Dwayne Bacon become chalk value that allows you to pay up for all the studs you want – insert Embiid, Curry, Vuc, and Dame – pick your guys and move on.
Now playing the chalk value does not always feel fun, but sometimes the simple path works and last night was a perfect example, especially as you moved up in the higher dollar Single Entry GPP’s on DraftKings.
Below is the winning entry in the $100 Single Entry GPP with $5K to first. These are smaller field tournaments with higher buy-ins and as such, they tend to play more “cash game” style – but it works.
Look at the winning build – three OKC starters, with the 3 man Win Daily core we outlined yesterday (Sabonis, Middleton, and Brogdon). Nothing flashy – but it worked.
Now I bring that up because tonight, I could see a scenario where 2-3 Orlando Magic value are going to be in the optimal builds assuming both Anthony and Fournier sit.
You can click in Mason, Bacon, and Ennis and you have $7.5K per player for the rest of your build.
Do you want to add on three studs? Have at it! You can fit in Nikola Vucevic, Joel Embiid and Steph Curry alongside those 3 Magic punts with ease. In our Cash Game Breakdown from Adam Strangis, he made the STRONG case for a superstar anchored build because these stars are in ceiling type spots and we have all the value to make it work.
We talk about this all the time in our Discord, but on short slates, raw points matter, and the fact we have this potential path to a superstar build tonight makes it seem wildly straight forward.
However, there is always an argument to pivot – and tonight I think we have some interesting options.
If you have read Picks and Pivots before you know that I love me a Stars and Scrubs build – it is what I strive for on every single slate and it seems like this five-game slate is delivering it right on a silver platter.
So why would I argue to pivot?
Well first, there is no guarantee Fournier/Anthony sit – so what happens if that Magic value is not there?
Secondly, even if they do sit – the fact that the “value” is in one condensed spot means that everyone will be using the same core value to get the same core stars. How exactly are you getting different?
So what if instead of going Stars and Scrubs – or should I say Stars and Magic – we go with a balanced build? Yes, this is Picks and Pivots and I am arguing to go balanced – people can change you know!
There are two games that I think can give us this contrarian GPP path with similar upside – Rockets/Heat and Raptors/Celtics.
The game that really intrigues me as a GPP game stack is this Toronto and Boston game because it seems like a spot that will get totally overlooked with both teams more or less “fully healthy” and with one of the slowest paced spots on the slate.
My interest though is twofold – 1) we have superstar talent at mid-range pricing as there is no single player in this game at or above $9K on DraftKings and 2) we have two teams with highly concentrated starting lineup usage and minutes which takes the guessing out of our plays.
The Raptors side of this game starts for me with Pascal Siakam ($8K) and Fred VanVleet ($8.5K) – the two Raptors that have the highest correlation pairing and the two Toronto players that performed the best in the only early-season meeting between these two teams when FVV dropped 55 DK points and Siakam hit for 37.
The Celtics lineup right now without Marcus Smart is basically a three-man show of Kemba Walker ($6.5K), Jaylen Brown (7.7K), and Jayson Tatum ($8.9K).
Since Smart went out, this trio has only shared the court for a total of 44 minutes with the large majority of it coming against Utah last game. While the fantasy production was nothing outstanding, the volume was – as this trio shot the ball 56 of 82 times, accounting for over 60% of the entire Boston offense.
THAT my friends is the appeal in this Boston/Toronto game – you can stack up the core 5 Celtics/Raptors with a mid-range build and get yourself the large majority of usage and volume.
In the first meeting between these two teams, Tatum (57 DK) and Brown (30) delivered strong games while it was Payton Pritchard (37 DK points) who got the guard production with both Kemba and Smart out.
Now past results do not predict future results – but let’s say we assume similar outcomes here tonight from the first game and slide Kemba into Pritchard’s role. This 5 man core would put you at 220 DK points or 5.6x value on their DK pricing tonight – and that assumes relative floor games for Brown/Siakam again.
What is interesting about that first game is how it went SUPER small. All of Baynes, Theis and Thompson started but they played just 13, 13 and 20 minutes a piece.
If you look at the game flow from that game – they opted to play small ball with Semi Ojeyle ($3.2K) getting 30 minutes of run in place in place of TT/Theis while the Raptors made similar match-up based decisions.
If Toronto remains without OG Anunoby and Yuta Watanabe tonight, it means more run for Norman Powell with the starters – meaning the bench unit will consist of Boucher/Davis/Johnson and Bembry. This could be a spot where Toronto goes small and we see ceiling games for Boucher or even paths to value for punts like Davis ($3.5K) and Bembry ($3.2K).
The Miami/Houston game has similar appeal and I think can be approached in a nearly identical way.
Houston is basically the same three-man show tonight with a core of John Wall ($7.1K), Victor Oladpio ($7.8K) and DeMarcus Cousins ($6.9K). Similar to what we outlined with Boston, you are basically getting the entirety of the Rockets fantasy production with this three-man core that will play all the minutes and soak up the lion’s share of usage.
First and foremost – I love this spot for Boogie who has seen his price drop after two subpar outings and now the field will move off him entirely. We loved him the last two games with Christian Wood sidelined for good strong analytical reasons – do not let results cloud the process.
Now we have not seen much of Wall and Oladipo together this season and we have just a 40-minute sample size of this duo on the court together with Cousins so it is tough to draw strong conclusions either way. but in the limited sample, it has been Boogie and Wall that have been the biggest winners usage wise and both sporting over a FP/M of production. With them also being cheaper than Dipo here, I think pairing them as a mini-stack and fading Dipo could pay big dividends.
The Miami side gets a big pace boost – and that should bode well for the under-priced duo of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Over the last 10 games, the Rockets are playing at a top 5 pace in the NBA and if you zoom in even more to the last 3 games with Wood sidelined, you see some trends we can attack.
During that time – the Rockets are giving up 50 rebounds per game, the 4th most in the league during that time, and giving up 6+ blocks per game. We have seen the Rockets give up 30+ DK points now in recent games to such juggernauts as Willy Hernangomez, Al Horford (2x), Enes Kanter and a big fat 60 burger to DeAndre Ayton.
All this sets up really well for Bam Adebayo ($8.6K) – another one of this mid-range plays with 50+ fantasy point upside who gets a favorable match-up and may get overlooked with those looking to jam in guys like Vuc or Embiid.
I think you can take a few paths here with these games – obviously you can game stack them if you so choose because both are very easy to do so. We mentioned the Raptors/Celtics but the same logic applies with a Wall/Cousins and Butler/Bam mini-stack. All of this is an effort to attack a mid-range that could go underutilized tonight if Stars and Scrubs are where the focus of the field is.
This slate seems very straight forward – IF we get the news that the Magic will be short-handed tonight. We get the clear value and it opens up all the paths to the stars and I think that build will become the mega chalk for good reason.
However, if the idea of Frank Mason, Dwayne Bacon, and James Ennis chalk makes you uncomfortable – then take a path where we go more balanced and game stack two spots that will go over-looked.
On short slates like this one, taking a stand is KEY. Either go all in with the Magic value in a Stars/Scrubs build or plant your flag, fade the chalk and load up on a Raptors/Celtics game with under-priced star power!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Happy Friday my NBA DFS friends – we have made it to the last day of the week and we get one of the best weekends of the year on tap – that’s right, Super Bowl Sunday! However before we dive into the wings and the chips, we have a 9 game NBA DFS slate to rock on Friday Night and you know Win Daily Sports is ready to make some cash!
Looking to take your game to the next level? Lock in our reduced Gold Membership deal now, getting THREE MONTHS of all sports access for just $79.99 using promo code “Winning” – and let’s get to some green!
We have 9 games to sort through in our NBA DFS player pool tonight and if you have been playing along this week, well this Friday Night slate is going to have a similar look and feel to some of the most recent slates we have played.
Once again the Oklahoma City Thunder are decimated with injury, even more so tonight as Lu Dort will miss this game alongside George Hill and SGA. If you love mid-range OKC chalk – well tonight is your night! My man Adam Strangis nailed how the OKC plays will fold into your cash games tonight in his FREE Cash Game Breakdown – so there is no need to repeat what he described.
Past that storyline, well this slate seems pretty cut and dry to me – and if you have read along with Picks and Pivots the last few weeks, you will not be shocked by where my focus is.
Hello Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors.
We have a game with a high Vegas total over 240, 15+ points more than any other game on the slate, featuring under-priced star power that also draws highly concentrated usage and fantasy production. Why start anywhere else?
The Brooklyn side of this game is a three-man show and the pricing on the Brooklyn Big 3 is going to draw some serious intrigue with James Harden ($10.6K), Kevin Durant ($9.6K), and Kyrie Irving ($9.1K) seeing a collective price drop from their last game against the Clippers.
If you watched our Win Daily Sports live show on Tuesday night, I made a passionate plea to stack the Nets as they were all projecting for single-digit ownership and I could not understand why. Ghost made a great point about how the masses seem to be approaching Brooklyn – most look at the Big 3 and think it’s a toss-up on a nightly basis which to pick and so unless one is sitting, they just avoid entirely.
It is interesting to sit back and watch the ownership on the Brooklyn Big 3 because this does seem to be the case. However, if you nail the “right plays” from Brooklyn – you are getting GPP difference makers at their ownership levels.
Against the Clippers, Kyrie and Harden were sub 5% owned in GPP’s and proceeded to drop 57 and 65 DK points while Durant at similar ownership was the third wheel with a sub 40 point game. If you picked the right two, you crushed, simple as that.
If you watched that LAC game, Durant sat with some early fouls and Harden and Kyrie just took over – and that carried into the second half. It was not an analytics or match-up based reasoning – it was simply, which two got hot. Kyrie even said so much in a post-game interview that they are fine deferring to the hot hand on a nightly basis – so good luck guessing.
Now flip to the Toronto side of this game because in many ways it feels like the SAME discussion we had with the Clippers on Tuesday. The Raptors Big 3 pricing first off is far too cheap and they are wildly interchangeable – Fred VanVleet ($7.9K), Kyle Lowry ($7.8K) and Pascal Siakam ($7.6K).
DraftKings did a phenomenal job of pricing this trio at levels that makes then easy mix and matches if you want to build multiple lineups but they also made it where the pricing doesn’t offer you any real reason to pick one over the other.
I will tell you right now though – getting this 2v2 mini stack is the KEY to cash position tonight and it will be at the heart of what I build tonight. So how can we approach this?
The NBA is by and large position-less basketball in this era, which is frankly why I think looking at DvP or specific positions is a worthless exercise by and large. However, I do think we can get strategic in how we attack this game tonight for Brooklyn and Toronto.
The two worst individual defenders on Brooklyn are Kyrie and Harden – followed by either Jeff Green/DeAndre Jordan. Meaning that the best place to attack the Nets individually is in the backcourt – so rather than pick between Kyle Lowry OR Fred VanVleet – maybe we just take them both understanding that at any given point they likely have the best individual match-up on the court.
The other option would be to look at correlations – and the highest two correlated players in Toronto are VanVleet and Siakam. In fact, Lowry has a negative correlation with both stars so locking in the better-correlated duo and ignoring match-up may be the optimal approach. So to summarize – I am either going FVV and Lowry or FVV and Siakam.
The one guy we haven’t touched on – Aron Baynes ($4.2K) – is a cheap way to get exposure not only to Toronto but to attack the most vulnerable part of the Brooklyn defense – the interior post Jarret Allen. Baynes has seen his playing time tick up from 23, 23 to 29 and 32 minutes and if he is going to get mid 20 minutes against this Nets interior, he has a very clear path in my mind to 6x value at Center.
The pivot off Baynes would be Chris Boucher ($4.5K) who has seen his price come down TWO GRAND in just four games. Seriously, this dude was $6.5K just 4 games ago. Could the recent run up in minutes for Baynes be related simply to the match-up with Nikola Vucevic?
There is a path for Boucher here if this game goes small as the Nets opted to start Jeff Green at the 5 last game. Boucher could be a prime GPP bounce back candidate tonight!
On the Brooklyn side of this game, Kevin Durant has arguably the best on paper match-up against Pascal Siakam and the fact he is priced under $10K on DraftKings tonight is absurd. I know last game was a dud but KD is still the team usage leader at 28% with all three stars on the court so I think he is player #1 in for me tonight.
The decision of Kyrie or Harden likely comes down more to price and roster construction than it does anything else. Basically, the dice roll that Ghost talked about when picking your Brooklyn pieces. The price discount from Harden to Irving is staggering on DK – so I lean Kyrie – however, I will tell you right now, if Harden is projecting to be sub 5% again tonight – I am finding a way to make him work!
This slate tonight by and large feels very straight forward.
I am locking in a 3v2 Raptors/Nets mini-stack while using the OKC value around it. That path, as I write this at 6AM EST, is clear and likely only becomes easier as the day goes on and we get more news and value opening up.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Happy Thursday my NBA DFS friends – after a 10 game slate where we saw the OKC value chalk drive DFS scores, we come back to a more manageable 5 game slate and one where we could see a ton of injury news open up chalk-tastic value.
Looking to take your game to the next level? Lock in our reduced Gold Membership deal now, getting THREE MONTHS of all sports access for just $79.99 using promo code “Winning” – and let’s get to some green!
We only have 10 teams in our NBA DFS player pool on Thursday but we have a ton of high-end player injury news on the tail end of back to backs for a handful of teams that could drive some serious value our way – and frankly, that will dictate how this slate is built.
Damian Lillard is questionable and we have Kristaps Porzingis/Victor Olapido unlikely to play on the B2B. To have that much star power potentially on the bench, it is going to open up a massive amount of value that will make it easier to pay for our studs.
Also, if Dame does sit – how will that impact the stars in Philadelphia with their own B2B set tonight?
Luka Doncic ($10.9K) becomes arguably the top star to pay for on the slate when/if we get confirmation that KP is managing his load. We have a massive data set to pull from in this case where Luka has a near 40% usage rate over the last two seasons in 1400 minutes when Porzingis is out and you get the added boost of a match-up against a Warriors squad playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA this season.
Now the last two games that KP has sat, Luka has actually been more floor than ceiling – with 49 and 45 DK points against the Suns and Rockets – DFS outputs that frankly would be a massive disappointment if you are paying a near $11K premium. However, take that data set back to the four previous games KP missed and you see the demonstrated ceiling – 57, 59, 72, and 79 DK points.
In the 10 games that Porzingis has missed this year, it is interesting to note that Luka has been held under 50 DK points in 6 of the 10 so the simplistic logic of KP out equals Luka lock, really has not been the case.
The flip side here is that we have to look at Luka and these stars in the context of the slate. First and foremost, if we get the value that we expect – that value dictates that we have the salary flexibility to afford Luka. Secondly, that 70-80 DK point ceiling that Luka has shown this year – that is the kind of raw point ceiling you simply need to have on a short slate.
In this same game, we get a National TV match-up with Luka versus Steph Curry ($9.8K).
Curry is the entirety of the Warriors offense this year and he gets to take the stage tonight against a Dallas team that is giving up the 3rd highest opponent 3P% over the last 10 games at 40.4%. No player in the NBA is putting up more 3PA per game than Chef Curry this season – so let’s see, national TV with a high volume three-point shooter against a team that cannot defend it – hello ceiling game!
The final superstar in this top tier that I would consider is Nikola Jokic ($11K).
Now the recent history against the Lakers is not going to be a strong selling point as he has been held under 40 DK points in 3 of his 4 meetings against the Lakers the last two seasons with a 53 DK point outing being his “ceiling.”
However, much like with Luka – I think the slate will dictate how The Joker becomes a priority. From a raw points perspective, it is hard to argue with a player who has gone for 60+ in 7 of his last 10 games and eclipsed 70 DK points in two of those meetings (both against Utah).
I am a firm believer in raw points being a priority on small slates like this and if the value is there to jam in the stars – I think you are almost forced into outlining this path.
A Luka-Curry-Joker build is going to leave you around $3.7K per player for the rest of your build – a spot that becomes quite doable IF the injury news breaks as we are hoping. You are also anchoring to a three-man core that has a legitimate chance to get you 200 DK points on their own. The question then becomes can you get 100-150 DK points from the “Scrub 5” – or 20-30 DK points per player to make this a winnable NBA DFS build?
The starting point for value tonight is going to be in Portland – if we get the news that Damian Lillard will sit. This is the path in my mind where taking the obvious value and pairing it with the high-priced stars like Luka/Joker becomes a core building block.
Portland is already without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, will be without Nassir Little tonight and Derrick Jones Jr. is questionable. With that crew out last game, Portland played an 8 man rotation – which included Dame for nearly 40 minutes of court time – take him off, and sheesh – it is value city.
Rodney Hood ($3.7K) received the start last game with Litte/DJJ out and played 35 minutes, shot the ball 12 time and racked up 22 DK points which puts him right at 6x value since his priced moved all of $200. If Jones Jr. is out again – Hood becomes an easy plug and play value.
The big winner if Dame were to sit would be Anfernee Simons ($4.6K) who would get the start at PG and get all the run he could handle against the Sixers. We have seen Simons start a hand full of times the last two years and he has put up 25-26 DK points in those stars but here is a big difference – those spot starts have always come in place of one of Dame/CJ. Tonight it would be a potential start with BOTH stars out – the ceiling would simply be too high for us to pass on tonight if Dame is out and he would be a lock button mid-range value.
Lastly – and my man Adam Strangis nailed this in his Cash Game Breakdown ($) today – is the role Juan Toscano Anderson ($3.5K) will play now with both Kevon Looney AND James Wiseman sidelined. As Adam pointed out “JTA was the direct sub for Looney and played 18 of the 26 possible minutes after Looney left the game with an injury.”
One additional play from Golden State that could give us elite value is Kent Bazemore ($3.3K). Similar to JTA – Bazemore played 12 of the second half 24 minutes with Looney sidelined and actually closed the 4th alongside JTA, Curry, Wiggins and Draymond.
If you are following along – here is what we got kids.
Lock in Luka, Joker and Chef Curry. The click in the values that would/could have starters minutes path tonight – and you still have around $3.5K per player for those last two spots.
When the value is this obvious – I do not try and get cute – I play the value that allows me to get the high ceiling stars that win you the slate. Every. Single. Time.
Stars. Scrubs.
Rinse. Repeat.
This slate has the potential to be very clear and obviously it is injury dependent – the path opens up early here for this kind of build that has massive GPP appeal.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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