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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 06/20

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

Before we kick things into gear I wanted to wish all those dads out there a happy father’s day. Hope you get to enjoy your day.

Today’s FD slate brings us something we don’t normally get to see on a Sunday, the Coors game is included in the main slate. Any time there’s a game in Coors, I try to look for a reason to fade rather than a reason to play it. Chi Chi Rodriguez is on the hill for Colorado today so there’s no reason to fade it.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Taijuan Walker ($9.4k) vs. Washington Nationals – Walker has been absolutely brilliant in his last 2 outings. He has 21 K’s in 14 innings of work. Is that something we should expect every time out? Probably not. But if we look at his larger body of work for the year, he’s been pretty damn good.

Over the past 30 days Walker has been even better. He has a 3.23 xFIP and a near 33% K rate. While both numbers compared to his whole season of work indicate there may be some regression, I do like his chances of continue his solid stretch today vs. the Nationals.

On the season the Nationals haven’t really hit for much power vs. righties. They have a .678 OPS and just a .136 ISO. I expect his K’s to come down from his last outing, but I do think he strikes out enough batters to pay off his salary. At $9.4k, he’s also not going to break the bank.

Kent Maeda ($7k) vs. Texas Rangers – Maeda is someone that won’t go deep for you. But with his price today, we don’t need that. We need someone that will go 5-6 innings and strikeout a batter per. In Maeda and with his match-up, there’s a strong level of confidence he can do that.

Rangers projected lineup today has a 26% strike out rate vs. righties. If we look at Maeda’s pitch mix we can see his pitch of choice is the slider. Outside of Nate Lowe, this is a pitch that the Rangers mostly struggle with. Almost the entire lineup has a whiff rate greater than 34%. There’s going to be some upside to Maeda today.

Zach Thompson ($5.5k) vs. Chicago Cubs – This is a risk it or biscuit type of call. I will more than likely be locking in Walker and moving on today, but I like attacking the Cubs with righties. They’ve shown a high propensity to strike out in bunches. On the year, they have a 25% strike out rate to righties.

They managed just 1 hit yesterday vs. Lopez and only 3 on the day. Thompson looked really good in his last outing against a much better lineup in the Braves. Could he replicate that performance today against the Cubbies? There’s a decent chance.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Matt Harvey – Blue Jays will be chalky today. They’re facing a pitching in Harvey who is just absolutely struggling and at some point the Orioles will have to pull the plug on this Harvey experiment.

Over the past 30 days Harvey has a 4.5 xFIP and has given up 5 homers in just 17 innings of the work. Where you really want to attack Harvey is with lefties as he’s giving up a 43% fly ball rate and a 40% hard hit rate. This makes getting Biggio ($3.3k) into your lineup a priority.

Righties are doing plenty of damage against him too so guys like Guerrero ($4.6k) and Semien ($3.8k) should also be part of any stack. Gurriel ($2.8k) is the cheapest of the bunch and profiles extremely well against Harvey so you should try to get some exposure to him as well.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chi Chi Rodriguez – I touched on this in the open but with Coors slates I try to look for a reason to not play the game due to it normally being a chalky spot. I just can’t ignore the spot today with Rodriguez on the hill.

He has been just brutal “this” year. He has a 5.17 xFIP and is only striking out 13% of the batters he’s facing. He’s also giving up a ton of hard contact at 41%. Batters just tee off on him.

With Gomber getting pulled early last night the Rockies had to use 5 different relievers. They’re taxed. This could very well mean we get a longer outing out of Rodriguez today. And I love that.

Rodriguez has been worse against righties with a 51% hard hit rate to them. This means we should prioritize getting in Adames ($3.2k), Urias ($3.5k), and Garcia ($3.8k). Yes, you read that right. 3 guys under $4k, in Coors, against the worst pitcher in baseball. All batters in this lineup should be in play today though.

New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin – While Corbin doesn’t give too many homers, he does give up a ton of hard contact. This means if you decided to use the Mets as a stack today, you need to go all in and not chase homers.

Corbin is giving up a 45% hard hit rate this year to go along with his 5 xFIP. He tends to give up more fly balls to righties so we need to try squeeze them in. If we look at pitch data we see that his pitch of choice to righties is the sinker.

Alonso ($4.1k), McCann ($3k), and Pillar ($2.7k) all come into play as they have ISO’s greater than .300 to left handed sinkers. Jonathan Villar ($3.5k) also profiles very well against Corbin.

They aren’t in the my top 3 (I’d probably rank them 3.5), but you can’t ignore what the Orioles have done against lefties this year. The Orioles have a near .800 OPS and .342 wOBA.

They are also dirt cheap on FD today and will make a fine compliment to one of your expensive stacks. Mountcastle ($2.5k) had a hat trick yesterday and is a great value. Mancini ($3.1k) has an ISO over .320 this year against lefties. Don’t sleep on the Orioles today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is very suspect today. Only one team so far has an IRT less than 4. This slate has the makings of a home run derby type of day with some of the gas cans going.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Friday, June 18th

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to the Friday, June 18th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome into a massive 15 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate on Friday Night where, well – get ready to get uncomfortable. The pitching options on this slate are tough to navigate and while the stacks are plentiful, nailing the arms is really what is going to separate us in our tournament builds.

First and foremost – Adam Strangis does a great job of breaking down the pitching in Starting Rotation so I implore you to start there.

Stepping back and looking at the context of this slate, the issue you are largely going to find is that the stacks are plentiful and pricey and so when we have “high-priced” arms that we are not in love with, the question becomes do we force them in for some level of perceived safety?

In cases like this, one thing I like to do is to try and gauge the chalk early on and see if there are pivots at similar price points we can move to at a fraction of the ownership. I think Adam nailed it on the head when he looked at the Robbie Ray/Jose Berrios combination and as the day goes on, it will be interesting to see if this is where the masses land.

Sitting right in this price range, one arm I love is Luis Garcia ($8.9K) who gets a perfect match-up for him against the right-handed heavy White Sox. Garcia has extreme splits when it comes to his strikeout ability with a 32% K rate against RHB versus just a 23% rate this season against lefties and that 10% jump is largely due to his pitch mix against right-handed batters.

This season, Garcia throws a cutter 35% of the time to RHB and a slider another 25% and it is that 60% pitch mix that generates over a 53% whiff rate from opposing hitters and when you see the movement it generates you can understand why.

https://twitter.com/ApolloHOU/status/1387852695118262277

https://twitter.com/enosarris/status/1399899646961479680

The White Sox lineup is one all year we have stacked against lefties and avoided against rigthies and the fact that they have 6 of their projected 9 batters hitting from the right side tonight is largely why we would avoid them but even more so why we should be all over Garcia in this spot!

The other spot tonight is where I want to go low to give us some salary savings and this one, I will be honest – I did not expect to land on at first glance but hear me out.

LHP Caleb Smith ($6.5K) is seemingly a forgotten man in Arizona, as his days of bring a front line starter in Miami seem so long ago and honestly, I had kind of glossed over him as an option at all this season and it was only when I dove into tonight’s slate that he caught my eye. I won’t lie – initially, it was because I thought we could stack the Dodgers bats against him but the more I looked, the more I liked Smith.

The reality is, the Dodgers are a top ten strikeout match-up for LHP this season and if you look at this view from Statmuse, you will see how consistent the success has been for lefties against the Dodgers this year.

The Dodgers have faced 20 LHP this season and in that time 12 of them have gone for 16+ DK points, with 3 of them going for 20+ DK points and 11 of the 20 have struck out 6 or more batters in those starts.

There has been an oddly consistent range of outcomes for even mediocre left-handers this season and with Smith working his pitch counts up to 84 and 103 the last two starts after being held under 60 all season, I think this is the spot to take advantage of the price discount and find a cheap arm with a 15-20 DK path tonight.

Going this route gives you significant salary flexibility and on a slate with Coors Field in the fold, that is going to be a key part of many peoples builds but I would argue there are tons of other good spots that present just as high of a ceiling.

My favorite is the Blue Jays against LHP Bruce Zimmerman, a lefty who is giving up a .200+ ISO mark and 46% hard contact seems like a match-up nightmare for the Jays right-handed heavy HR squad. 1-5 in this Toronto line-up with Semien, Bo, Vladdy, Grichuk and Gurriel seems like the perfect pivot off Coors and the fact they are in Camden Yards and get 9 innings of guaranteed at-bats is ideal for stacking.

The other team I love tonight is the Cleveland Indians against RHP Chad Kuhl, who has surrendered a .264 ISO and 49% HC rate to LHB this season. Kuhl relies heavily on his sinker to lefties and considering he has surrendered a .538 ISO mark and 57% HC rate, maybe he should try something new.

The Indians lefties – hit this sinker extremely well – with all of Jose Ramirez, Eddie Rosario, Bobby Bradley and Josh Naylor sporting .200+ ISO marks and 40-50% HC rates. The other key offering is the slider, which he throws 40% of the time and while JRam is the target, here again, do not overlook Cesar Hernandez ($4.8K) as a pivot at 2B as he has a .289 ISO and 48% HC rate against that pitch type.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Stepping back and looking at this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate for Friday, I think the one thing we know is that we are going to love our bats and feel super uneasy about our arms.

With that context, understand we are all in the same boat when it comes to sorting through the mess of arms so do not be afraid to take risks on slates like this where the pitching is murky but I would also say the flipside is true – do not get cute with offenses, the bats are going to go off tonight and there are simply too many good spots to target, so make sure you have offenses at the core of your build that can match the big boys.

Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Friday – 6/18

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

For a slate as big as today, pitching options are somewhat scarce. The top pitcher on the slate is in Coors and the second “best” pitcher can no longer use spider tack. That said, the goal today will be to bring you 3 pitchers and 3 offenses that will help you get to the top of the leader boards.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Robbie Ray ($11k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – This pick doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies as the Orioles have actually been really good against lefties. But Ray has been one of the most consistent and dominant pitchers this year.

Ray changed his game plan this season to throw considerably less curveballs and more fastballs. The dividends have definitely been there as his walks are at a career low. While he still is prone to the home run ball, not having meaningless runners on via the walk means most of these are solo shots.

This is the most expensive we’ve seen Ray all year. His price up due to his recent performance though. Over the past 30 days he has a 36% K rate. He’s more expensive than I’d like, but we’re getting a pitcher that has elite K ability and that’s what we look for in DFS.

Corbin Burnes ($9.5k) vs. Colorado Rockies – While Ray is the most expensive he’s been all year, Burnes is the cheapest he’s been all year. At only $9.5k, we’re getting a steep discount on someone who has a 41% K rate on the year.

Rockies are a team that we can attack. After Woodruff gave up 5 in the first last night, he settled down to blank the Rockies for the next 4 innings. There’s always risk to using a starter in Coors but between Burnes’ whiff rate of nearly 19% and his high ground ball rate of around 51%, I think he’s set up nicely to do well in Coors. Again, not safe due to the environment but I like Burnes to be one of the top pitchers on the slate.

Jose Berrios ($9k) vs. Texas Rangers – Outside of his start against the Royals a couple of weeks ago, Berrios has been pretty good this year and he has seen a nice uptick in his performance of late.

The lineup that he’s projected to face today has a K rate of more than 26% to righties on the year with an ISO south of .150. This sets up nicely for him to have a repeat performance of his last outing where he struck out 8 through 7.

One of Berrios’ favorite pitchers to throw is his curveball. Rangers, for the most part, struggle with this pitch. Only Nate Lowe has a wOBA greater than .300 to this pitch this year.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Atlanta Braves vs. Carlos Martinez – Braves somewhat under-performed last night. It wasn’t for a lack of trying though as they did put a ton of runners on. Where they struggled last night was with runners on as they hit just .200 with RISP. Hoping that was just a blip and they continue tonight with putting runners on. One or two balls drop and last night would have been a different story for the offense.

They get a great match-up tonight against a pitcher who is a shell of his former self. Don’t let his last outing fool you. Martinez for the year has been bad. His splits have been pretty neutral so I’m not overly concerned with platoon advantages here.

In looking at his pitch mix of mostly fastballs, sliders, and cutters the guy I’m locking in first is Acuna ($4.5k). He’s expensive but has smashed fastballs and sliders all year. Almonte ($2.6k) profiles well too and his low salary will help balance out what you’re paying for Acuna.

Minnesota Twins vs. Mike Foltynewicz – Folty has been brutal this year. He’s been especially brutal in his last couple of outings. The Twins get to face off against a guy that has a mid-5 xFIP who is also giving up just a ton of hard contact with a rate of 47%.

With Folty, we really want to attack from the left side of the plate (he’s bad to both sides though.) To lefties this year he’s giving up a .443 ISO and a 46.5% FB rate. The two main guys I’m going to build around tonight are Polanco ($3.6k) and Alex Kirilloff ($3k). Any Twins stack should have those guys squarely in the middle.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Jose Urena – Really love this spot for the Angels tonight. Urena has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the past 30 days. He has a 6.75 xFIP and just a 5.8% K rate over that span. He’s someone that just doesn’t miss any bats.

The Angels have a bunch of guys in the lineup that match-up really well to Urena’s pitch mix. Urena has been throwing his sinker about 48% of the time this year. Ohtani ($4k) and Walsh ($3.6k) have slugging %’s greater than .640 to that pitch this year. With them both having the platoon advantage, I’d start my builds with them.

Urena hasn’t made it past 6 innings since the start of May. The good news for us is that the Tigers have the worst bullpen over the past 2 weeks.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is going to be tough tonight, but we have acouple of elite K guys in Burnes and Ray who should do well tonight. The late night hammer of the Angels may lead you to the top!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 6/17

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

We are back to a somewhat underwhelming pitching slate. The top pitcher on tonight’s slate is a bit overpriced for my liking but I do think we have some other pitchers we can use to exploit some weaker offenses. The goal today will be to bring you 3 pitchers and 3 offenses that will help you get to the top of the leader boards.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

While Ohtani is very playable on DK tonight, on FD he’s just way too expensive. I love the match-up, but $11k for someone that almost never goes past 6 innings is just too steep for me.

Marcus Stroman ($9.9k) vs. Chicago Cubs – I should start with saying that $9.9k for Stroman is about $1k more than I’d like to spend on him. That said, the match-up is very good and he’s been flashing some more K upside recently.

Between Walker and Degrom the Cubs struck out 20 times over the last 2 days to Mets starters. We know we have a team here that has a strong tendency to whiff. On the year they’re striking out nearly 26% of the time to righties. That pretty much aligns with Stroman’s K rate over the past 30 days, 26%. This is a great spot for Stroman to continue a great run he’s had over the past couple of weeks.

Brandon Woodruff ($10.8k) vs. Colorado Rockies – I don’t often recommend a pitcher in Coors but with limited options on the mound tonight, we have to bring Woodruff into the convo. This is the cheapest that Woodruff has been since around this time last month. With his elite K rate of more than 31% on the year we’re getting a top pitcher who will most likely go a bit under owned due to the environment.

What has me feeling a little more comfortable with this pick tonight is the fact that Woodruff has really been limiting hard contact over the past 30 days. He’s actually been giving up more soft contact than hard. If we add in that plus his strike out ability, he should be able to neutralize the Coors effect. Not a safe pick by any means due to the environment, but we’re limited tonight.

Joe Musgrove ($8.5k) vs. Cincinnati Reds – The Reds away from GAB are a very different team. All of their power metrics take a nosedive. Their OPS drops from .829 to .684, which is mostly driven by a drop in their slugging % from .480 to .379.

Peralta showed yesterday that the Reds can strike out when up against a strong right handed pitcher. While I wouldn’t put Musgrove in the same category as Peralta in terms of K’s, he has shown over course of the year that he can strike out batters with the best of them. He’s had 4 games of 10 or more strikeouts this year. Over the past 30 day he has 35% K rate. The K’s are there for him tonight. At only $8.5k there’s a chance for a really strong return on our investment.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Michael King – This is going to be a tough night for King. He’s facing a team that has just absolutely destroyed right handed pitching this season. Blue Jays have a .193 ISO vs. righties and an OPS of .785.

In looking at pitch data, the match-up just gets worse for him as the Blue Jays hit the sinker hard. Biggio ($3.4k), Guerrero ($4.4k), Bichette ($4.2k), Gurriel ($2.5k), and Semien ($3.8k) all have slugging %’s greater than .500 against the pitch this year.

We’ve seen the Blue Jays put up big numbers this year, tonight is a chance for them to do it again. With pitching being on the cheaper side, this expensive stack doesn’t scare me too much. Especially if you add in Gurriel.

Atlanta Braves vs. John Gant – Braves vs. lefties this year, not so much. Braves vs. righties, let’s roll! Of the teams playing tonight, only the Blue Jays have a higher ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they’re going against. Braves have an ISO of .187 against righties this year and an OPS Of .739. These are two key metrics I like to look at when looking for stacks as they show power and the ability to get on base.

With Gant’s lean towards throwing sinkers, I’m going to focus on the guys here that have done extremely well against the sinker this year. Acuna ($4.5k), Riley ($3.1k), and Swanson ($2.7k) all have slugging %’s of .480 or higher. Both Acuna and Swanson have hard hit rates over 50% to this pitch. Braves are in a great spot tonight to put up a healthy amount of runs.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Justin Dunn – Dunn gets the daunting task on taking on the Rays tonight. It’s been an up and down campaign for Dunn this year. He’s shown the flashes at times that made him a top pick of the Mets a few years ago. But he’s also had a ton of down spots and that’s why we’re attacking him today.

He’s giving up a ton of hard contact to lefties this year. Lefties have a 47% hard hit rate. There’s a near 38% difference between his hard and soft contact to lefties. My focus will be on the usual suspects here. Lowe ($2.8k), Meadows ($3.6k), and Choi ($3.1k) all have strong numbers against Dunn’s pitch profile. If you want really cheap exposure here, Kiermaier ($2.2k) also profiles really well in this spot.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

With no true aces tonight outside of an overpriced Ohtani, we have some solid pitchers in price ranges that will allow us to get some of the higher priced bats. This has the makings of a high offense type of night.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday, June 17th

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

Welcome to the Thursday, June 17th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome in to a solid, albeit smaller, 8 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate on Thursday where we have another night in Coors Field, some high K arms and five teams already with 5+ IRT’s which will make picking the right stack a key on this small slate.

When looking at arms today, we have a very clear upper echelon of K arms with all of Brandon Woodruff, Joe Musgrove and Shohei Ohtani sporting 30%+ K rates and SS% rates of 13% or higher since the start of last season. The difference on DraftKings continues to be that Shohei Ohtani ($8.1K) is simply never priced at the level he should be when you consider his K upside alone which gives us the chance each and every time to get an ace arm priced as an SP2.

My man Adam Strangis made a great case in Starting Rotation for Woodruff in Coors and even why Musgrove may not be ideal, but there is one arm he did not mention that I want to dive into on this slate and that is Tigers right-hander Matt Manning ($4.7K).

Manning is a former first round pick, 9th overall, and is currently the 18th overall prospect in all of Major League baseball who received his promotion to AAA this season after finishing the 2019 season as the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year.

Manning is a big 6 foot 6 right-hander with a mid to high 90’s fastball, a change-up that dives out of the zone, and a NASTY 12-6 curveball that were all on display in his most recent AAA start where he struck out 8. If you are a person who needs to see the analysis – go watch the highlights of that outing here and tell me you are not intrigued.

Now, Manning has had his bumps in his first go-round in AAA and maybe people see the 8+ ERA and his 3 HR/9 rate which both rank dead last among qualified minor league pitchers and they think this kid is a gas can to pick on rather than use – but you don’t get drafted in the first round and have top 20 overall prospect status by mistake – this kid has the goods.

Manning was one of the “big 3” arms in their minor league system alongside Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal and most prospect evaluators had Manning as the best of the bunch. The Tigers have really worked to develop these young arms and while we saw Skubal specifically have a rough start to the year, we are seeing the Detroit organization really work to develop the secondary pitches on these young arms and they have largely been as advertised, especially recently.

It is not often we get a top prospect debut, priced under $5K on DK, facing an Angels team that is banged up and has demonstrated high K ability – and what is weird, I think the 8+ ERA player note on DraftKings is going to keep people away, not realizing how supremely talented Manning really is. Going with an Ohtani/Manning build means you get every single bat you could ask for!

Well, it is a day that ends in Y and so that means it is time once again for a Tampa Bay Rays stack to be featured in Picks and Pivots!

The Mariners will throw out RHP Justin Dunn, who has been torched by LHB over the last 2 years with a .235 ISO allowed and a 48.5% hard contact rate to go along with a 2+ HR/9 rate allowed. There is no pitcher in baseball this season that has given up higher hard contact to left-handed batters than Dunn, who at 43.8% sits dead last among qualified Major League arms and well, if you do not think this is a prime Rays stack day, you do not even know me.

This is kind of a nightmare spot for Dunn with the Rays getting to deploy their left-handed heavy brigade of Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Austin Meadows, and Joey Wendle in the heart of the order as they all have .200+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of 2020.

The other spot that I love here today is the Atlanta Braves against RHP Jon Gant, the poster boy for regression this season who the last two starts have finally started to see the advanced metrics swing back with 12 ER allowed in just 5.2 innings of work.

Gant is a heavy sinkerball pitcher, especially against the right side of the plate, throwing it over 50% of the time and giving up a near 50% hard contact rate. Now when you profile against a ground ball pitcher like Gant, you want to try and find hitters that not only make hard contact but do so with fly ball tendencies and that is where Ronald Acuna Jr. jumps out to me as his fly ball rate is 10% higher than his ground ball rate against RHP.

The other right-handed batter that stands out – Dansby Swanson, as he has a .210 ISO, 43% HC rate, and a 55-45 FB/GB rate against the sinker – against trying to find guys that can make hard contact but also elevate the ball.

The issue for Gant has been the walks, with a BB:K ratio of 8:3 the last two starts, and any time we see a pitcher struggling with command, it sets up well for a full-on stack where you get base runners and crooked numbers as the offense get in favorable hitters counts – this Braves line-up even without Ozuna, is still loaded with power and they make for an ideal stack alongside the Rays tonight.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

We have a solid 8 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate tonight and while Coors Field may be a starting point for some, personally I feel like it is not a necessity like it was yesterday and that goes for both sides of the ball. With a belief that Brandon Woodruff is not a need at $10K in Coors and the Brewers bats against German Marquez is a spot that has an equal downside and frankly, if the game was in Milwaukee we would all be arguing to use the Rockies RHP.

Today, I think we have under-priced elite K arms that will allow us to build around strikeout ceiling while also going “double-stack” with two power laden offenses against low K opposing arms that have struggled with the advanced metrics saying we have more room to regress!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Wednesday – 6/16

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 nice sized slates. A 6 gamer at 2:10 and an 8 game main slate.

While we have more pitching options than we’ve had over the last couple of days, some of them aren’t in the best spots and will carry risk. We do however have some clear cut stacks that we’ll want to use.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Aces

Freddy Peralta ($9.2k) vs. Cincinnati Reds– Peralta will be my top pitcher on the early slate. While the match-up is a tough one, Peralta has already proven a couple of times this season he can handle the Reds lineup. He struck out 13 Reds between 8 innings of work in the 2 starts. Peralta has had a great campaign so far this year. He has a 37% K rate this year and it’s not often we can get a pitcher with this type of K rate less than $10k.

Tarik Skubal ($8.5k) vs. Kansas City Royals – At the start of the year, I would have picked the Royals as one of my top stacks. Skubal has really come into his own over the past month and a half.

Let’s take a look at what he’s done over the past 30 days. He has a 38% K rate which over the same period is the top mark of any pitcher on the early slate. His xFIP is 2.73 which is also the top mark over that time period. This was all done against lineups that normally do well against lefties. He’s faced the White Sox twice in that stretch. Facing the Royals is never a sure thing as they’re stingy, but I really like Skubal’s chances of a strong outing today.

Brady Singer ($7.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers – This is far from a safe pick but one that may work in our favor as we try to get the expensive bats in. Tigers are a tough team to get right when pitching against. I thought Minor was a sure thing last night and he wasn’t.

That said, chasing K’s against them is still a thing as they’re striking out at a 27% clip against righties. Singer isn’t a high strike out pitcher but he’s cheap and gives us bat flexibility. If we can get 5-6 K’s from him today and a QS he’ll by far pay off his salary.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Bats

Washington Nationals vs. Chase De Jong – De Jong has been absolutely brutal on the year. He has a 6.50 xFIP through 3 starts. He’s giving up a ton of contact to both sides of the plate so we don’t really need to worry about platoon splits.

His ISO to both sides of the plate so far this season are both over .300. Kyle Schwarber ($3.5k) has been on a pretty nice run over the past week and with his shift to the lead-off spot will be a main target of mine. Trea Turner ($4.1k) and Juan Soto ($4.4k) also make fine additions to this stack.

San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland – Padres have, for all intents and purposes, underwhelmed this season vs. lefties. While they aren’t striking out much against lefties, they’re also not really hitting the ball for power either.

Kyle Freeland may be what gets them going. Freeland hasn’t pitched much this season as his year started at the end of May. The sample size that we’ve seen this year has been brutal though. In his last 9 innings of work he’s given up 13 runs. For a ground-ball pitcher, he’s given up a lot of homers. 30% of his fly balls this year have left the park.

Padres disappointed last night scoring only 4 runs. There’s a very real chance they surpass that total in the first inning today. Freeland’s main pitch to righties is his change-up. Both Pham ($4k) and Tatis ($5k) have strong ISO’s against this pitch from lefties.

Lefties have also crushed Freeland this year with a .412 ISO and a .582 wOBA. That brings back Hosmer ($3.9k) and Grisham ($4.3k) into the conversation. Look for the Padres to put up a typical Coors numbers today.

Chicago White Sox vs. Ryan Yarbrough – I haven’t gone to the White Sox vs. a lefty in a while but this match-up is setting up really well for them. Yarbrough hasn’t been bad this year. He’s been pretty good and his last 2 outings have been excellent.

The reason I’m going here though is that he strikes out batters from the right side far less. His K rate vs. lefties is 27% but it drops down big time to 18% against righties. White Sox today will more than likely have 9 guys bat from the right side of plate.

Two guys I’m going to try to prioritize are the really cheap bats of Adam Engel ($2.2k) and Yermin Mercedes ($2.7k). While all the righties should be in play today, those guys specifically will help you fit in the big bats from the Padres.

I do also like the Athletics quite a bit. I debated putting them ahead of the White Sox due to the Rays never really giving up a huge number. Canning has been a reverse splits and is giving up far more hard contact to righties than lefties. While I expect the lefties to do well here also, if playing the A’s I’d prioritize getting Canha ($3.5k) and Chapman ($3.2k) into your stacks.

MLB DFS: The Early Slate Wrap Up

Something to always keep in mind for early slates is that lineups could get a little funky. What is a good match-up early, may change to bad match-up once lineups are released. Don’t get married to your lineup until the teams start releasing theirs.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

Jacob Degrom ($12.2k) vs. Chicago Cubs – The only con that I have for Degrom is that there’s a very good possibility he doesn’t go past 6 or 7 innings. With Degrom though, he can put up a big number in that type of short outing. Last time out he threw 80 pitches in 6 innings and still scored 58 FD points. He’s the best pitcher in the game with a great match-up tonight. There’s not much else that needs to be said.

Clayton Kershaw ($10.2k) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – If you aren’t using Degrom tonight, a good second option would be Kershaw. While the Phillies are mostly healthy nowadays, they still have a lineup that strikes out.

On the year they are striking out more than 27% of the time to lefties. With Kershaw not being an ordinary lefty, we know that there is some upside with Kershaw and his 30% K rate for the year. Another thing going for Kershaw tonight is that the Phillies get a serious park downgrade with the game being in LA and not Citizens.

Aaron Civale ($9k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – Should we expect another 67 point performance out Civale tonight? Nope, probably not in the cards. More often than not though, Civale has been living in the 40 point or greater neighborhood this year and that’s probably a more realistic target.

While the Orioles lineup has been hot and cold over the past few weeks, it’s been more cold when a strong righty is on the mound. Tonight we have a strong righty. My build tonight will be tailored around Degrom and Kershaw but if you’re looking to save a bit Civale is a good third option.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

Atlanta Braves vs. Garrett Richards – There was a stretch earlier in the year where Richards looked to be back to his younger self. Since then it’s just been a downward trend in his performance with his last outing being his worst.

That downward spiral should continue tonight with a match-up against the Braves. Braves have been dominant vs. righties this year. Acuna ($4.5k), Freeman ($4.2k), and Riley ($2.8k) all have wOBA’s over .380 against righties this year. If you want to add a cheap piece to the puzzle Almonte ($2.2k) has also crushed right handed pitching, albeit in a much smaller sample.

Houston Astros vs. Jordan Lyles – Astros will probably be the chalk as they get to face none other than Jordan Lyles. Lyles has a near 5 xFIP on the year with a 47% hard hit rate. Lyles has actually been worse to righties this year with a .229 ISO and 50% hard hit rate.

With his pitch mix of mostly fastballs to lefties both Alvarez ($3.7k) and Tucker ($3.4k) should have great nights. On the right hand side the pitch of choice is the slider for Lyles. While I like Altuve ($4k) and Bregman ($3.5k), it’s Gurriel ($3.1k) that I’ll target the most as he’s the cheapest of the 3 and has a .228 ISO against this pitch.

Minnesota Twins vs. Justus Sheffield – I never seem to get the Twins right, especially Donaldson. I’ll play him all week, then when I don’t play him he gets 2 homers. I think I’ll get them right tonight.

Sheffield has had an up and down season so far. He’s had a couple of good outings, but then will have a down outing. There’s been no consistency from him. Tonight he’s taking on a tough opponent as the Twins have been really good against lefties. They have a .772 OPS and a .199 ISO.

Twins will throw out a bunch of righties tonight and on the year Sheffield is giving up a 50% hard hit rate to that side of the plate. Both Donaldson ($3.6k) and Sano ($3.2k) have a bunch of success against the sinker which is Sheffield’s pitch of choice to righties. If you need a cheap bat since you’re going with Degrom, Jeffers ($2k) is still min priced and opens up some salary relief for you.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrap Up

Two of the best pitchers of the last few decades are on the mound tonight. Enjoy using them in your lineups and enjoy watching them pitch.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wednesday, June 16th

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to the Wednesday, June 16th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

Early Slate Breakdown

Welcome in to a split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have 6 games on the 2PM EST Early Slate including a Coors Field affair with a near two touchdown IRT that will rule the slate dynamics!

To be perfectly blunt, small slates with Coors Field are not my favorite – I think you basically have to play them all in or all out as the ownership will be so widely concentrated.

So the question becomes – to Coors or not to Coors?

What stands out to me on the game in Colorado today with Blake Snell and Kyle Freeland on the hill, is how the pricing sets up here, specifically how the Rockies bats are so cheap and help you easily afford the core big Padres bats.

The simple reality is, we have two left-handed arms that have been rocked by right-handed batters this season pitching in Coors Field against right-handed heavy line-ups and if you have to pick a lane today, I saw we go all in and game stack!

Kyle Freeland has given up a .335 ISO to RHB (and a .412 mark to LHB) while Blake Snell has surrendered a .200 ISO mark with a massive 52% hard contact rate and this game is projected to have 13 of the 16 position players batting from the right side.

The reason this game is so appealing – and it may sound odd to start on the Rockies side, but what is with this Colorado pricing? Five of the eight projected starters for the Rockies are priced at $3.2K or lower on DK with pure punts like Connor Joe ($2K), Elias Diaz ($2.5K), and Brendan Rogers ($2.9K) all offering you insane value for a game in Coors Field with 100-degree daytime temperatures and a beatable lefty on the mound.

The value that sits on the Rockies side of this game is what directly allows you to click the big bats on the San Diego side that are Coors Field must-haves from the right side in Manny Machado ($5.6K), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6.1K), Tommy Pham ($5.8K) and Wil Myers ($4.4K) while Eric Hosmer ($4.9K) & Trent Grisham ($4.6K) remain in play in the L/L match-up with Freeland’s struggles with lefties this season.

I love the idea of using Hosmer/Grisham here in Padres stacks as people may think more traditionally with Freeland’s splits and not realize that he has surrendered 6 HR’s to LHB over his last 18 innings of work spanning back to last season.

Taking this one step further – not only does the Colorado value allow you to game stack Coors, but it allows you enough salary flexibility to still pay for a high K SP1 like Freddy Peralta ($10.3K) who has a massive 37% K rate and 15.5% swinging strike rate on the season.

The sticker shock for Peralta is real, but frankly, it is warranted. Take his name out for a second and realize you are getting an arm with the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball behind only Jacob deGrom. His swinging-strike rate and CSW% rate both rank in the top 10 in all of baseball and the simple fact we can game stack Coors Field and get one of the best strikeout arms in baseball in the same build – is well, a path that seems far too straightforward to pass on a small slate.

Main Slate Breakdown

The 8 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate starts and ends with you clicking on Jacob deGrom at $11K as your SP1.

No, seriously, like go do that now.

I’ll wait.

As Adam Strangis said in Starting Rotation, deGrom right now is like Russell Westbrook in NBA DFS – until the sites price him out of play, you just lock him in and figure out the rest every single slate.

I am in lockstep with Adam with how this slate looks to play out and I suspect our Matchup Tool, which is one of the best tools in our Win Daily Sports suite will also help underline just how clear this slate is – as we continue to attack Jordan Lyles with opposing bats.

Among qualified pitchers this season, Jordan Lyles ranks among the worst arms in baseball with a 1.6 HR/9 rate that is the 6th highest in the league, and his 39.4% hard contact rate allowed is the single worst mark in all the land. Flip it around and his 11% soft contact rate is the third-lowest of any pitcher – meaning no matter how I slice the data, Lyles is poo. (for you Ghost).

I am sure Lyles is a perfectly nice guy, and hey listen – he has actually pitched “well” recently with minimal damage allowing 3 or fewer runs in 7 of his last 10 starts, so the blowup potential maybe doesn’t materialize as much as the metrics would indicate.

All that said, on a short slate like this with more good arms than bad, I think you have to attack the spots the metrics highlight and that means building around the Houston Astros batters.

Lyles is overly reliant on a low 90’s fastball to LHB that has surrendered a .304 ISO and 50% HC rate allowed and he throws it over 50% of the time. To right-handed batters you see much of the same with a .315 ISO and 51% HC rate against his fastball but he does throw it a tad less, at just 40%.

Not surprisingly, the Astros batters all profile well against a low 90’s fastball because well, they are Major League Hitters. All of Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Alvarez and Tucker have .200+ ISO marks against that pitch type.

Oddly enough, the one bat that actually stinks against this fastball velocity is Carlos Correa with a .162 ISO and just a 26% HC rate which is crazy low and while I would still say he is a fine play in the stack at a weak SS position, I thought it was odd to see a major league hitter with such a poor profile against a low veocity fastball.

Much like the early slate where the “clear path” is to anchor to Coors/Peralta – the main slate has the same basic outline with deGOAT and the Astros 5 man stack at the center of our builds.

What it means is finding cheap secondary stacks and SP2’s to make it work but I think we continue to have to path due to the punt pricing of the Baltimore Orioles bats.

I am not sure what Baltimore did to the DK algorithm but why exactly are 6 of the 9 projected hitters in this line-up once again all priced under $3K?

When you consider that Aaron Civale has a .202 ISO mark and 41% HC rate allowed to LHB with a 1.8 HR/9 rate and this Orioles line-up has 5 hitters batting from the left side (STRONG SIDE – sorry had to do it), why exactly is Baltimore still so cheap?

Civale relies heavily on his cutter to LHB, nearly a third of the time, and Cedric Mullins ($3.4K) stands out with a .227 ISO mark and 48% HC rate against that pitch type. Interestingly enough, for you BvP truthers, Mullins is also 2 for 3 off Civale with 2 HR’s which both came back on June 5th when Civale faced the O’s and gave up 3 HR’s in total including a duo to Mullins – one off the fastball and one off the sinker – which by the way Mullins has .225+ ISO marks against both those pitch types as well.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

We have a double dose of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots today and the two slates play very similarly for me today in how I plan to attack my GPP builds.

We have clear high-level ace arms in Peralta/deGOAT on both slates with high K upside that we simply need to anchor to and we can do so easily while still getting the best hitting stacks on each slate including Coors Field and the Houston Astros. Any time we have that kind of build staring at us in the face – I think we take the most direct route to the cash line and beyond!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 6/15

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 15 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

At first glance the pitching tonight is not much better, but after looking at the data we have a few pitchers that are in decent spots. We also have my 3 favorite pitchers to pick on – the law firm of Harvey, Happ, and Chi Chi.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Mike Minor ($8.8k) vs. Detroit Tigers – Tigers teed off on Keller last night. Tonight they face a much more daunting task as they face off against Mike Minor. Over the past 30 days Minor has been very good. His K rate is nearly 30% and his xFIP and ERA pretty much align in the mid 3’s.

His match-up with Tigers is a good one. While the Tigers have shown flashes of being a half decent offense recently, they’re still striking out a ton. They have a 30% K rate vs. lefties with a .123 ISO. Both those numbers indicate they have a rough time against lefties.

Minor has already faced the Tigers twice this year with a combined 17 K’s. Really like the spot here for Minor and his less than $9k salary will leave us room to get some of the bigger bats that will be in play.

Taijuan Walker ($8k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Walker has become one of the steals of the offseason. He’s shown flashes of brilliance this year with his best outing coming against the Orioles last week.

His K rate over the past 30 days is hovering around 27% and his xFIP is below 4. So we are getting a pitcher with a more than halfway decent K rate at only $8k.

His match-up isn’t half bad either. On the year the Cubs are striking out at around the 25% mark. While they have some guys with pop, they’re still a very weak lineup compared to years past. Vegas has the Mets as a big favorite today. I’m going to agree with them and try to work Walker into my lineup.

Hyun Jin Ryu ($8.5k) vs. New York Yankees – The Yankees have really underwhelmed against lefties this year. We’ve seen them get dominated by the likes of Matz, Skubal, Yarbrough, and Hill.

Ryu has had a couple of difficult outings in a row. In his last 2 outings he’s only had 4 K’s. He faced really tough lineups in those game, facing off against the White Sox and Astros. This is a great bounce back spot for him.

He faced the Yankees earlier this year and walked away with 7 K’s in 6 innings of work. While facing the Yankees is never 100% safe, attacking them with lefties this year hasn’t been a bad strategy. I wouldn’t go all in with Ryu, but this is a good spot for him.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Much like last night, we have a healthy amount of offenses in really good spots today. I made the decision early on yesterday to fade the Coors game. I didn’t like the match-up that either team had. Today’s a different story.

The Padres have a great match-up vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez. He’s arguably one of the worst pitchers in baseball. They are priced up for the match-up though. Tatis ($5k) is the most expensive you’ll typically see a batter on FD. You really couldn’t have asked for a better match-up for the Padres in Coors.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Brett Anderson – The Reds get to take on a sinker ball pitcher today in Anderson. We know they have a handful of guys in their lineup that excel vs. this pitch.

Castellanos ($4.3k), Stephenson ($2.6k), and Suarez ($3.1k) all have ISO’s over .200 against this pitch from lefties. This should be a tough day for Anderson who has been pretty bad this year. He has a 5.19 xFIP this year and a 50% hard hit rate. Reds are going to be one of my main targets tonight.

Seattle Mariners vs. J.A. Happ – When Happ is on the mound the batters from the other team automatically enter my player pool. He’s been absolutely awful this year. His xFIP is almost 6. We’re halfway through June. His xFIP being that high is not based on a bad outing or two, but a full season worth of bad outings.

I’m going to focus on the righties here because that’s really where Happ struggles. His FB rate vs. righties is 48% and his hard hit rate is 40%. He’s giving up a ton of bad contact to righties. The guys you want to look at are Haniger ($3k) and France ($2.6k). If you also need a cheap 2B, you could do a lot worse than the spot that Moore ($2.4k) is in. Mariners tonight will make a nice compliment to your Reds or Padres stack.

Cleveland Indians vs. Matt Harvey – Of all the pitchers on the hill today, no one is giving up homers at a quicker pace than Harvey has over the past 30 days. He’s given up 7 in just 15.1 innings of work.

To start the year it really seemed that Harvey had figured out a new way to pitch. If we look at recent outings, we know that was just a mirage. Harvey is giving up a 44% FB rate to lefties and a 40% hard hit rate. I’m going to focus my attack of Harvey today on the middle of the lineup since that where the lefties sit.

JRam ($4.1k), Eddie Rosario ($2.8k), and Bradley ($3.4k) should have a field day today. Well at least in the first inning since I don’t think Harvey lasts longer than 3-4 innings.

Another gas can that we can attack today is Tyler Anderson vs. the Nationals. Think Zimmerman ($2.6k) and Treat Turner ($3.6k) as Anderson is far worse against righties. Giants lefties vs. Martin is also an exploitable spot. Martin is giving up a 60% hard hit rate to lefties. Brandon Crawford ($2.9k) is way too cheap for that match-up and what he potentially brings to the table every game. Same could be said for Yastrzemski ($2.7k).

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Just like last night, there’s a ton of offense to go around tonight. Pitching, IMO, is a bit better tonight as the above average pitchers are in better positions to succeed.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday, June 15th

Gary Gustafson 4 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome to the Tuesday, June 15th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!

After a big night on Monday Night where our Picks and Pivots core build anchored around Glasnow/Manaea and a Reds/Pirates stack hit for big money – we are back at it again tonight!

Main Slate Breakdown

Welcome in to a Tuesday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where we have 15 games on tap including a spot for the San Diego Padres in Coors Field that is going to go a long way in determining our roster construction.

Typically we start with the arms, but when we have a team like San Diego with a near 7 IRT against RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez and a slate with no real must-have arms, I think the prudent thing to do is work backward in our builds.

Gonzalez is a total disaster against right-handed batters, with a .252 ISO mark allowed and a massive 52% HC rate allowed and the middle of this Padres order with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Wil Myers is a gauntlet that I think we almost have to anchor to tonight despite the likely insane levels of ownership.

Building a Padres stack is an expensive building block and I would argue that 3-4 San Diego pieces will be a core component of winning builds – it really then is about what you do next that differentiates you.

On a slate without any obvious elite arms, I think the general feeling from the field will be to pay down for arms and that is where I do think we can get different and instead use two top-tier studs with our Padres stack.

The match-ups for LHP Trevor Rogers against the Cardinals and Yu Darvish in Coors Field are clearly not the most ideal spots to attack but from a pure metrics perspective, it is hard to argue that there is any better pair of arms on the slate.

This duo ranks 15th an 16th in baseball in K rate and both sit in the top 20 in CSW% on the season as both give you 30%+ K rate upside despite the difficult on paper match-ups.

My man Adam Strangis already broke down the path for Trevor Rogers in today’s Starting Rotation so let me pivot to why I think Darvish is an ideal double ace SP2 on DraftKings.

Darvish has two pitches in his arsenal that has proven time and again to be effective in Coors Field – with a sinker/slider combination that is able to still work in the thin air. If you want to nerd out – and frankly, we know you do – this is a great article I found on the pitch types and how they can be effective in Coors Field.

In his first start this year in Coors Field, Darvish went heavy on his slider, 32% of the time which was by FAR the most he used it in any start this season while still anchoring to his cutter as his dominant offering.

The next start Darvish faced the Rockies in San Diego and his pitch type breakdown was wildly different – relying on his cutter and fastball while his slider was used far less frequently.

If you look at both games, what stands out to me is that his horizontal and vertical breaks on his cutter in Coors versus at home were nearly identical so the thin air really did not impact his primary pitch at all. In the secondary offering, however, we did see a stark difference.

In the slider metrics, you did see a big difference in Coors versus home, where he was getting a significantly less horizontal break on the pitch versus at home.

The fastball in both cases saw similar spin rates and actually was getting more vertical break in Coors and if you read the article above, that formula of using the fastball with low spin/high break is a formula for sustained success.

What does this all mean? Well – if Darvish opts to employ a similar pitch type strategy against the Rockies today that he did in his home start, using the fastball and cutter, he has a seriously high upside path awaiting him as he had a 37% CSW rate in that game and 10 K’s.

So going Rogers and Darvish and a Padres core stack probably has you saying – wait, don’t we have a salary cap? Where are you finding all this value?

Welcome to the Baltimore Orioles tonight my friends where the bats are cheap and the positions are plentiful!

The Orioles will take on RHP Cal Quantrill who has moved to the Indians bullpen after his last start on June 6th where he lasted just 1.1 IP, gave up 7 runs, and did so against – the same Orioles team he faces tonight.

The Indians bullpen will be needed in this game since Quantrill is not stretched out and this is a pen that ranks among the bottom 10 bullpens in terms of ERA the last 2 weeks while also ranking bottom 10 in HR’s allowed. This pen also has been recently taxed as Triston McKenzie was unable to get out of the first inning on Saturday, Shane Bieber was unable to make it through 6 innings and JC Mejia only made it 4 last night as the starter.

The Orioles bats are not plays in a vacuum that would stand out, but pricing matters to me in MLB DFS builds and the fact that this lineup has 5 of their projected 9 batters priced in the $2K range and the fact they are the road team with guaranteed 9th inning at-bats – makes them the ideal secondary value stack to give you a Padres/Ace path this evening.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up

Opening up this Tuesday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate on Tuesday, the easy comment would be it is a “San Diego Padres slate” – and well, that is true for the most part.

The key is how you get different from there and I think paying up for both arms, especially arms that are not in “perfect spots” will make your build wildly different than those who opt to pay down for salary relief and with that, more risk.

When building MLB DFS rosters, I am always going to anchor to the known commodities and that is pitching, especially high K arms like Rogers and Darvish. If that means rolling the dice with a punt Orioles mini-stack, so be it, hitting is the most variable part of DFS baseball and this O’s lineup has already seen and hit Quantrill hard!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases Monday – 06/14

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Monday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a larger than normal 13 game Monday main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

For a 13 game slate, today’s pitching is about as bad as you’ll see all year. Each arm today brings a ton of risk. With each arm bringing a ton of risk, it also means that we’ll have plenty of bats to pick from.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Tyler Glasnow ($10.8k) vs. Chicago White Sox – I don’t normally make it a practice to attack the White Sox. The entire lineup is filled with power. Glasnow is however the best pitcher on the slate.

Over the past 30 days he has a 2.74 xFIP and a 30.8% K rate, which is down a bit from his 36% k rate for the year. While the White Sox do have a ton of power, they’re also striking out at a near 25% clip to righties this year. While not overly high, it still means there are some K’s in there for Glasnow.

Adam Wainwright ($8k) vs. Miami Marlins – I told you pitching was bad tonight. This is more a testament to the Marlins lineup than it is Wainwright. Marlins on the year are striking out nearly 26% of the time to righties and not hitting for much power with a .135 ISO.

While Wainwright at this point in his career isn’t going to strike out 10 guys a night, he’s someone that’s going to be resourceful enough to get you more than a handful of K’s while not completely blowing up against a lineup like the Marlins. His pitch mix of mostly sinkers and curveballs matches up really well with the Marlins. Not a sexy pick, but I think it’s a pick that will open up salary for you on a night where there are a ton of solid hitting environments.

Lance Lynn ($11k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – I will most likely be picking between the first 2 guys I mentioned. That said Lynn is one of the best and most consistent arms on the slate. He’s surpassed 40 points in 5 of his last 6 starts.

His match-up carries a ton of risk as the Rays bring a lot of power vs. righties. While they bring power, they also strike out more than 26% of the time. If he can somehow limit the damage of the long ball tonight, there could be some upside for him tonight.

Again, not even remotely a safe pick due to the match-up, but there isn’t a single safe arm tonight. He’s my third ranked option on the night.

MLB DFS: The Bats

There is a Coors game tonight. I wouldn’t blame you for stacking that game. On a night like tonight where there are so many offenses faces poor pitching you should be able to differentiate yourself from the field by fading that game.

Oakland Athletics vs. Dylan Bundy – Bundy has been really bad this year, but he’s been especially bad over the past 30 days. For the year, his xFIP is hovering around 4.4. If we look at a more recent sample size though, it sky rockets up to 5.49 over his last handful of starts.

His FB rate is the highest it’s been since 2018, but what’s the most troubling with him is that his HR/FB rate is the highest of his career. In his last 17 innings he’s given up 8 homers. Is that bad? It seems bad.

He’s been pretty impartial to both righties and lefties as his ISO is over .230 to both sides of the plate. While my slight lean will be to the guys like Matt Olson ($3.8K) and Mitch Moreland ($2.3k) who have the platoon advantage tonight, there’s no reason to shy away from the righties in this one.

New York Mets vs. Jake Arrietta – When Arrietta is on the mound I make it a point to stack against him. His xFIP this season is north of 5. That’s not a short sample at this point as we’re midway through June. To have a xFIP that high this far into the year means you’re struggling at the Major League level to get guys out.

His ISO to both sides of the plate is over .300. Villar ($3.2k), Lindor ($3k), Alonso ($4.2k), and Smith ($2.6k) are my main targets here. But honestly, any guy in this lineup should be able to square up Jake at this point.

Kansas City Royals vs. Matthew Boyd – What I said about Arrietta stands true for Boyd. His xFIP on the season is also greater than 5. He’s struggling to get guys out this year.

Boyd has especially struggled vs. righties this year. His FB rate is over 46% and his hard rate is almost 43%. My favorite guy in this lineup is Salvador Perez ($3k) as he crushes left handed pitching. I will also sprinkle in some Merrifield ($3.7k) and Soler ($2.8k). Royals have as good of a match-up as anyone out there tonight.

Another team that I really like tonight is the Cubs. They’re facing off against Peterson who has been abysmal in his last two outings. If this game plays tonight it very well may be the top scoring game of the night as it has two awful pitchers going. There is risk though and since I also wrote up the Mets in that game I didn’t want to give you 2 out of 3 teams that are at risk of not playing.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Pitching is awful tonight but we have plenty of bats we can focus on. I don’t think you’ll need to go to Coors tonight and fading that game gives you an opportunity to differentiate yourself from the crowd.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

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