PGA The Range: WGC Mexico Championship Patrick Waters 4 years ago written by Patrick Waters The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in Naucalpan, Mexico as the players face off in the WGC Mexico Championship.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!The BasicsCourse: Golf Club De ChapultpecPar: 71Length: 7,345 yardsFairways: Kikuyu (Narrow)Greens: Poa (Fast) – Though it has been pointed out that the greens play more like Bent Grass according to @JBates_golf and @BPSnow11.Past five winners: ’19 Johnson (-21), ’18 Mickelson (-16), ’17 Johnson (-14), ’16 Scott (-12), ’15 Johnson (-9). (Only the last three years was it played on the current course)For a hole by hole breakdown, check out the PGA Tour website here.Course IntroductionThe WGC Mexico Championship is a no cut event that has been held in Naucalpan, Mexico, just north of Mexico City. The golf course has narrow, tree lined fairways. The elevation above sea level (more then a mile above) make the course play shorter then the yardage would indicate. While the golfers that can drive the ball a mile tend to do well, the raise in elevation really brings in the shorter hitters as well.While this WGC Mexico tournament is no birdie fest, it should play easier then the Genesis Invitational last week. Average winning score is around -15 and with a star studded field (72 players) there should be no short of excitement come Sunday afternoon.Course BreakdownWith an average score setting laid out this week, let’s look at the golfers who have performed well in Stroked Gained Total over the last 12 rounds.Ball striking, like most weeks, is a crucial part of the golfer’s game. With fairways and greens being smaller than tour average at the WGC Mexico, we’ll need golfers at the top of their game both off of the tee and approach. Here are the top golfers who have excelled in ball striking over the last 12 rounds.While the course lists the greens as Poa, the idea that they play more like bent has been mentioned. Here are the top 10 golfers both on Poa and Bent as well as their baseline to begin with.With all three course conditions applied, here are the top 10 golfers. If last week is any indication, you might see this list near the top of the leader board. At the Genesis Invitational , the top 10 included: eight cut makers, three top fives with both Kuchar (T2) and the winner Adam Scott.Player FitThe WGC Mexico has five holes that play extremely tough as they’re Par 4s that are 500+ yards. The elevation should help and you can think of them more as 450 yard Par 4, but having golfers that excel in this range could be a huge help. To narrow it down even further, I’m specifically looking at the 125 – 150 range for proximity.Opportunity Gained will be factored in once again, from Fantasy National. While I think Bogey Avoidance holds some water at the WGC Mexico Championship, with a no cut event, I’m targeting birdie makers/fantasy point scorers (BOB/DK Points).Here are the top players with all the combined stats from above.Final Recap – WGC Mexico ChampionshipI think looking at golfers that have length on their drive is a solid starting point but I wouldn’t rule out the shorter hitters all together. Perhaps use the distance as a tie breaker. The field is stacked despite some of the top name skipping this week. With that in mind, you’ll see golfers lower in salary then normal but just because they’re cheap doesn’t mean they’re a good play. No cut events are fun, because your roster is never dead but it can often be frustrating as the edge diminishes. I would recommend playing lite this week.Course SetupAverage scoringHard to hit fairwaysPoa Greens (Bent grass feel)Player EfficienciesBall StrikingPar 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 yardsProximity: 125 – 150 yardsBOBOpportunity GainedThanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the WGC Mexico Championship. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions. While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here! Stat Source: Fantasy National 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
PGA The Range: The Genesis Open Patrick Waters 4 years ago written by Patrick Waters The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in California as the players face off at the Genesis Open. Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more! The BasicsCourse: Riviera CC ( Pacific Palisades, CA )Par: 71Length: 7,322 yardsFairways: KikuyuGreens: PoaPast five winners: ’19 JB. Holmes (-14), ’18 B. Watson (-12), ’17 D. Johnson (-17), ’16 B. Watson (-15), ’15 J. Hahn (-6)For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.Course BreakdownSince the 1999 season, the Genesis Open is played at the Riveria Country club. Over the last ten years, the average winning score is -12 with a high of -17 and a low of -6. Twelve of the last twenty rounds have rated as a difficult score. Let’s look at some of the top golfers over the last 24 rounds and how they’ve fared with difficult scoring.The fairways at the Genesis Open are more narrow than tour average, with this in mind we’ll want to focus on golfers who are sharp ball-strikers (like most weeks). Below are the top ten golfers over the last 24 rounds.Strokes gained putting tends to be a high correlation to success here. Golfers who can perform well on Poa greens could gain an edge on this tough course. The illustration here shows the top golfers over the last 24 rounds.Here are the golfers that have performed well under all three conditions listed above.Player Fit – Back EndAt the Genesis Open, most of the toughest holes and a few of the easiest holes are the Par 4 450 – 500 yards. Looking for golfers that excel in this range will be a nice spot to start. Between the Par 3s and the longer holes on the Riviera CC, the long irons will play a huge role. Look for golfers that play well between 175 – 200 yards in proximity.With the smaller greens, GIR should play a big part. For those that miss the greens in regulation, they’ll need to be able to scramble to save par. As usual, Opportunity Gained will be part of the model but unlike most weeks I’m leaning more bogey avoidance over birdie or better.Here are the combined stats from up above which will represent the golfers below when they’re evenly weighted.Final Recap for the Genesis OpenLooking for players that have played the course before should be a priority. I’m not saying new timers cannot do well, but according to Datagolf the Riviera CC plays only behind Augusta for course history relevance.Course SetupDifficult ScoringHard to hit fairwaysPoa GreensPlayer EfficienciesPar 4 scoring: 450 – 500 yardsThe proximity between 175 – 200 yardsGIRScramblingOpportunity GainedBogey AvoidanceThanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the Genesis Open. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions. While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here! Stat Source: Fantasy National 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
PGA The Range: Waste Management Phoenix Open Patrick Waters 4 years ago written by Patrick Waters The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour heads to Arizona as the players face off at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more! The BasicsCourse: TPC ScottsdalePar: 71Length: 7,266 yardsFairways: Bermuda, hard to hit.Greens: Bermuda, larger than tour average.Architect: Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish Past five winners: Fowler -17 (’19), Woodland -18 (’18), Matsuyama -17 (’17), Matsuyama -14 (’16), Koepka -15 (’15)For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.Course BreakdownThe Phoenix Open plays at the TPC Scottsdale course in Arizona. The average score has been around 16 under par and I don’t see that changing this year. While 16 under is a nice score, it’s not exactly a birdie fest and we’ll look to treat this course as an average scoring tournament. Here are the top 10 golfers that have performed the best over the last 24 rounds.While fairways are tougher to hit here at the WMPO, landing in the rough isn’t all that bad. The distance over accuracy tends to be a more dominating factor. With this in mind we’ll look at golfers that perform well off of the tee.The greens are Tifdwarf Bermuda with an overseeding of Rye. Golfers tend to have issues putting on this surface in the past. Here are the top 10 golfers who perform the best in the field on Bermuda.Below are the to golfers that have performed well overall three course descriptions above.Player Fit – Back EndThe toughest holes on this course are Par 4s and fall in between 450 – 500 yards. On the flip side, the easiest holes on the course are the Par 5 550 – 600 yards. Being able to perform well on these holes with both birdies and avoiding bogeys will be crucial. Most approach shots come from the 150-175 range, so looking for golfers that perform well within that proximity is a good starting point.GIR will show up here but I believe there is a bit of noise in the stat this week. The greens are rather large so it inflates its importance for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. As always I’ll include Opportunity Gained in the stat pool when selecting my golfers.Here are the top golfers with the 6 stat fields being evenly weighted over the last 12 rounds.Final Recap of the WMPOI believe driving distance could be a solid direction to lean on when selecting golfers. Players that have played the course before tend to do better than incoming course rookies.Course SetupAverage Scoring CourseHard to hit fairwaysBermuda GreensPlayer EfficiencyPar 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 yardsPar 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 yardsBirdie or BetterBogey AvoidanceThe proximity between 150 – 175 yardsOpportunity GainedBall StrikingThanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the Phoenix Open. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions. While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here! Stat Source: Fantasy National 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
PGA The Range – Sony Open in Hawaii 4 years ago written by The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour stays in Hawaii as the players face off at the Sony Open.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!The BasicsCourse: Wai’alae Country ClubPar: 70Length: 7,044 Yards Fairways: BermudaGreens: BermudaArchitect: Seth Raynor (1927) with changes by Desmond Muirhead (1992)For a hole by hole breakdown, please visit the PGA website here!Before we dive into the Sony Open, I want to bring up a new rule for the 2020 season. In previous years, the qualifying line for the weekend was the top 70 plus ties. If there were 78 or more golfers that made it into the weekend, there would be a MDF (Made Cut Did Not Finish). When the MDF rule was applied, there would be another round of cuts on Saturday. This year the rule has changed to the top 65 and ties with no MDF. I just wanted to bring this to your attention so there was no confusion moving forward.Course BreakdownThe Sony Open in Hawaii has seen scores vary over the years and it really depends on the wind. When the wind is blowing strong, up to 30+ mph gusts, scores tend to be lower. When the wind drops off scores have reached the mid-twenties. As of this writing, the wind seems to be a potential problem both Wednesday and Thursday, with the weekend calming down. Make sure to pay attention to the weather as we approach lock as there may be a potential wave advantage.Along with the wind, the Wai’alae Country Club has narrow tree-lined fairways throughout the course. Coupled with the Bermuda greens that are surrounded by several bunkers on each hole, the course sets up to play average to above average in scoring. Below is a list of the top 10 golfers for Strokes Gained Total over the last 24 rounds played (2019) for average to score courses.As mentioned above with the course layout, landing the ball off the tee into the fairway is troublesome at the Sony Open. Looking at golfers who perform well, hitting into tight fairways, should give us an advantage this week. Here are the top 10 golfers with such a skill set.Just like the Sentry Tournament of Champions, golfers who perform well on Bermuda greens should have an advantage at the Sony Open. Illustrated in the table, are the top 10 over the last 24 rounds of 2019 and their Strokes gained putting.With all of the course features combined, we can see who has performed well over last year. Now granted these are small sample sizes but here are the top 10 golfers in; average scoring courses, hard to hit fairways and Bermuda greens. Again this is from 2019 and is the last 24 rounds played.Maybe it’s to no one’s surprise to see the reigning champ, Matt Kuchar, sitting at the top.Player Fit – Back End StatsHere is the scorecard for this week’s tournament at the SOH.The two toughest holes are between 450 – 500 yards and they’re both Par 4s. Looking at golfers who perform well in this range with help with avoiding bogeys.When it comes to the easiest holes or which holes can be birdied at the highest clips, are the two Par 5s and they’re between 500 – 550 yards. The Sony Open will not be a scorer’s paradise so being able to take advantage of these holes will be crucial.Ball Striking (Off the Tee & Approach) should be critical to the golfers game. Being able to land on the fairway and avoiding the bunkers should help lead to a great week.As always, players who put themselves in solid situations to score overall are big elements to a rostered golfer in a lineup. For this, we look at Opportunity Gained and BOB.With all of these stats weighted evenly over the last 24 rounds of 2019, we’re presented with these top 10 golfers.Final recap of the Sony Open in HawaiiRemember to look at the weather as it may present a possible advantage come lock. Depending on said weather, you may want to increase your scoring stats with lesser wind and vice versa with more wind. The new cut rule begins this week at the SOH. Know that once your golfers have made the cut, they’re safe for the weekend. As always, I hope you have a thrilling sweat going come Friday evening.Course SetupAverage to above-average difficulty in scoringHard to hit fairwaysBermuda greensPlayer EfficienciesBogey Avoidance: Par 4 450 – 500 yardsTee to Green: Par 4 400 – 450 yardsBirdie or Better: Par 5 500 – 550 yardsBall StrikingOpportunity GainedThanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here! Please leave a comment below or reach out on Twitter if you found this helpful and any questions you may have.Stats source: FantasyNational 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
