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Colorado Rockies

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/1 (FanDuel Main Slate)

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather concerns in tonight’s slate, so plug these Aces and Bases plays in with confidence!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Dustin May ($9,700)

We’ve got five or six viable “aces” out of 12 total SPs on tonight’s slate, including both pitchers in this game, GPP darling Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) facing the Texas Rangers in Globe Life Park, the young and talented RHP Zac Gallen (ARI) at home facing the Rockies, and veteran hurler Charlie Morton (ATL) in a tough matchup against the Blue Jays. But May stands out as the highest upside play given the fact he reached double-digit Ks in his last start, the game features the lowest projected total and the Brewers — his opponent, strike out at a 27.2% clip, the third-highest rate in the majors. You can save a few bucks dipping down to Brandon Woodruff, especially if the think the Dodgers bats will continue their scuffling ways — but May is a -125 favorite and could go underowned given the number of viable arms with slightly cheaper price tags.

Best Value: Zac Gallen ($9,000)

In his last start, Gallen looked absolutely dominant on the mound against a potent Braves lineup, limiting Atlanta to just one hit — a single from Freddie Freeman — and only one runner reaching scoring position. This scoreless gem from Gallen was his best start of the season and should give him ample confidence against a Rockies lineup that isn’t very good outside of Coors Field — sporting a ghastly 27 road wRC & 56 road wRC+ that are both dead last in the league. If Gallen made mincemeat out of the Braves, he should easily dispatch the Rockies. There’s a hint of risk here, as Gallen is still a young pitcher who’s learning his craft, but when he’s sharp, he’s REALLY sharp — and tough to hit.

Contrarian GPP Value: Blake Snell ($8,800)

It’s not really great value since he’s less than $1K cheaper than the top arm on tonight’s slate, but Snell makes a lot of sense as a low-owned GPP play. The former Cy Young winner has had only one truly devastating MLB DFS outing (April 13 @ PIT) this season, when he failed to get out of the first inning, and the rest of his starts have been, well…serviceable. The good thing is that he’s coming off the longest outing of the young season (5.1 IP in a no decision on 4/25 @ LAD) and he’s sporting a 13.50 K/9 so far in 20.2 IP. The Giants lineup does have a few scary righty-versus-LHP bats, like splits-dynamic Wilmer Flores and veteran sluggers Evan Longoria and Buster Posey — but I like his chances at a win and quality start if he can notch a couple more outs than he did in his last appearance.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Opener LHP Travis Bergen)

This game will be played in Dunedin FL at TD Ballpark, the Blue Jays slated to open with Travis Bergen and giving Tommy Milone the bulk of work as the primary middle reliever. Neither of these guys is up to the task of stopping the Braves, who are loaded throughout the order with power righty bats (and a lefty slugger (Freddie Freeman, $4,100) who over the course of his career has hit southpaws just fine. Freeman’s hefty price tag makes him less of a priority, but Ronald Acuna ($4,300) is worth the spend up and there are a few value bats to get in this stack: Marcell Ozuna ($3,300), switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,100), Travis d’Arnaud ($2,700) and 3B Austin Riley ($2,500). I didn’t forget about Dansby Swanson ($2,500), Pablo Sandoval ($2,000) and projected 9-hitter Gil Heredia ($2,900), all of whom could produce in a funky (and contrarian) 6-8-9-1 stack. But I think my favorite approach here is 1-3-4-5 or 1-3-5-7 — depending on who lands where in the final lineup. There’s also some opportunity to run back a game stack with some Blue Jays bats.

Value Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (LHP Austin Gomber)

I love the D-backs righthanders bats in this matchup, especially leadoff hitter Carson Kelly, who’s mashing the ball in a torrid start to the 2021 season (.340/.507/.717 through 73 plate appearances). Rounding out the 1-4 stack are switch-hitters Eduardo Escobar ($3,400) and Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,800) and lefty 1B/OF Pavin Smith, who’s been flourishing near the top of the order in the absence of Christian Walker and Kole Calhoun. Smith already has a homer, triple and double against LHP in just 17 AB this season, so I’m okay with him in this group. Other value options include Josh Rojas ($2,500) and the less appealing Wyatt Mathisen ($2,200).

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Jordan Lyles)

The Red Sox have just the third highest projected total after the Braves and Blue Jays, but they are re a lly heating up at the plate. I love the 2-3-4-5 hitters in this game: Alex Verdugo ($3,200), J.D. Martinez ($4,200), Xander Bogaerts ($3,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,700), but there’s some value in Kike Hernandez ($2,700) in the leadoff spot and all of Christian Vazquez ($2,300), Marwin Gonzalez ($2,200) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,200) offer solid risk-reward upside at dirt cheap prices.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 4/24 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

OAK@BAL has a significant risk of postponement, and the projected pop-up storms in Atlanta take that game off the board for me as far as pitchers are concerned.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Trevor Bauer ($11,000)

Bauer may be a pretty insufferable social media presence, but he’s a damn fine pitcher who knows his craft as well as any hurler in the bigs. Over the past couple seasons, he’s sported a K/9 rate north of 12.0 and his xFIP is among the best in the game, just eclipsing 3.00. Bauer is the clear top dog, as the next most expensive pitcher on the slate is Kevin Gausman against the Marlins, and while the man formerly known as “Kevin Gascan” has been solid in 2021, the veteran doesn’t carry the same double-digit strikeout potential as Bauer. And Adam Strangis agrees in his 4/24 Rotation article that it’ll be tough to avoid Bauer tonight.

Best Value: Pablo Lopez ($8,200)

Lopez fared well against these same Giants in Miami just six days ago (6.0 IP, 9/2 K/BB, 1 ER) en route to 49 FanDuel points in a Marlins loss. If you want to fade the chalky Bauer and find some extra salary for a few more big bats, you can take your pick among Gausman or Lopez — though I always prefer the higher K upside on FanDuel. If Lopez can sneak out another quality start and notch a win this time, 50+ FD points is well within reach.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela)

The most obvious stack in play is in Coors, but we may have to get a little creative with who we pick since salary is an issue. If you’re spending down to Lopez at P, you can afford the vaunted 2-5 hitters, which include Rhys Hoskins ($4,200), Bryce Harper ($4,800), JT Realmuto ($3,800) and Didi Gregorius ($3,500), but using Bauer essentially takes RHBs Hoskins and Realmuto (the two less appealing of that group) out of play and necessitates lower-cost options like Alec Bohm ($3,200) and Mickey Moniak ($3,000). AS far as a game stack goes, the Rockies that offer the most upside are Charlie Blackmon ($4,000) and Raimel Tapia ($3,100).

Value Stack: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Kyle Gibson)

While Gibson has turned in three straight effective, quality starts after a disastrous debut in 2021, the Chisox are one of the only MLB DFS stacking options available that offer upside at a relatively low cost. Since there’s a dearth of bargain pitching options, you should be rounding out your Coors stacks with one-offs or looking the way of the potent sub-$3K hitters in the Windy City, including Yoan Moncada ($2,900), Luis Robert ($2,800), Yasmani Grandal ($2,700) and Andrew Vaughn ($2,100). There’s some threat of rain in this one, but probably not enough to cause a significant delay or postponement,

Value/Contrarian Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Pablo Lopez)

If you’re strictly a single-entry MLB DFS guy who hates hedging with multiple lineups, this slate may not be for you — but multi-entry GPP junkies should be considering some Giants stack against Lopez, as the splits indicate you should be able to harness some leverage and tournament-winning upside with some lefty bats in San Francisco. I know — using Lopez in other builds assumes he’ll be successful — but our need for cheap bats notwithstanding on this small slate, we have t find ways to get different. Mike Yastrzemski ($2,800), Brandon Belt ($2,700), Tommy La Stella ($2,600) and Alex Dickerson ($2,700) make sense as a Giants stack in this crazy world. Run it back with Jazz Chisolm, Jr. ($3,100) and/or leadoff hitter Corey Dickerson ($2,700) for the Marlins.

Good luck!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/28 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks: A long road home

5 years ago

written by

It is hard to believe this 9/28 MLB DFS slate is the second to last regular season day of MLB. My Dodgers have things firmly in hand, and my hopes of a Dodgers-Yankees World Series are well alive. When each season winds down it leaves me with a feeling of both sadness, and relief. This is a tradition I have watched unfold now for over forty years, and each one leaves me with tears in my eyes, even as a grown man.

With everything pretty much said and done, all the players today are basically playing for personal glory. This makes pitching extremely tough to nail down. The biggest advice I can give to you today is play light and save your bankroll for NFL DFS. Today truly is a crap shoot. So, with Mindset “Leave No Doubt” playing in the background, I bring you my last MLB DFS regular season pitching article.

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On the Defense

I have no clue what is going on tonight with the Tigers atWhite Sox. The pitching option is not available on FD, but has Reynaldo Lopez slatedto start on DK, even though everything I have seen has him slated to pitch theday game. Keep on eye on this one.

JustinVerlander vs. Los Angeles Angels

$11,400 FD / $12,800 DK

My confidence in Verlander’s competitiveness drives this 9/28 MLB DFS play. The Angels with Mike Trout were not the scariest team on most nights, and without him is anything but. Over the last seven days the other guys from Los Angeles are batting a .221 with a pathetic wRC+ of 68. Even Justin’s sub-par numbers versus the Angels this season are better than most pitchers’ good ones. With question marks all over the board tonight he has the highest upside.

RobbieRay vs. San Diego Padres

$9,300 FD / $10,600 DK

With the Padres striking out 24.8 percent of the time versusLHPs Robbie Ray is a fully loaded 9/28 MLB DFS option. Ray may have allowed fourearned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last outing facing San Diego, but he alsohad 10 strikeouts. Even with a negative ballpark shift in Arizona, for thediscount from Verlander, I would have no fear of using him in both cash gamesand GPPs.

BrettAnderson vs. Seattle Mariners

$6,700 FD / $7,200 DK

The Seattle Mariners are striking out 24.7 percent of the time versus LHPs this season. Anderson also over his last nine starts has only allowed more than three earned runs once. Seattle over the last seven days is striking out 28.7 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 32 while batting .177. I cannot think of a better time to attack them than on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate.

ReynaldoLopez vs. Detroit Tigers

$6,700 DK

As earlier mentioned, I am not 100 percent sure Lopez is starting the night game, but DK does have him listed. The not so mighty Tigers are striking out 26.5 percent of the time versus RHPs while coming in 30^th in MLB in both wOBA and wRC+. His last two starts facing Detroit did not go as well as hoped, but he has had major success versus this lineup in the past. I sure hope he pitches on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate because I would love to pair him with Anderson freeing up a ton of salary to spend on hitting tonight.

Name	Team	W	L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Justin Verlander	Astros	20	6	217	11.94	1.74	1.41	36.60%	15.50%	2.53	3.24
Robbie Ray	Diamondbacks	12	8	168	12.03	4.33	1.5	37.80%	19.20%	4.28	3.81
Brett Anderson	Athletics	12	9	171	4.58	2.53	1.05	54.40%	13.60%	4	4.83
Reynaldo Lopez	White Sox	9	15	176	8.18	3.27	1.74	34.90%	13.90%	5.57	5.39

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On theAttack

We have a Coors Field game on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate, and a lot ownership is going to head towards facing a lefty in Colorado. We do however have a few other sweet stacking options at lower prices.

JamesMarvel vs. Cincinnati Reds

Talk about a gift on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate. James will do anything but Marvel regardless of who he is facing. In his first three starts he has allowed 14 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. The beauty is they let him keep pitching. With nothing to lose at this point I see that trend continuing tonight.

Reds vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Eugenio Suarez	496	7.50%	28.00%	0.27	1	0.372	127
Aristides Aquino	161	6.20%	24.80%	0.25	6	0.358	118
Joey Votto	425	12.50%	18.60%	0.67	3	0.35	113
Derek Dietrich	279	10.00%	23.30%	0.43	1	0.348	111
Josh VanMeter	226	11.50%	21.20%	0.54	7	0.327	98
Tucker Barnhart	306	12.10%	22.20%	0.54	0	0.319	93
Curt Casali	133	9.00%	27.80%	0.32	0	0.314	89
Freddy Galvis	406	6.20%	26.40%	0.23	2	0.31	91
Jose Iglesias	395	3.00%	14.20%	0.21	6	0.303	82
Nick Senzel	304	7.20%	28.30%	0.26	8	0.294	77
Phillip Ervin	159	6.30%	27.70%	0.23	3	0.279	66
Michael Lorenzen	32	9.40%	28.10%	0.33	4	0.272	62
Kyle Farmer	122	3.30%	33.60%	0.1	0	0.26	54
Jose Peraza	279	2.90%	16.10%	0.18	4	0.254	50

Garrett Richardsvs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Talk about a terrible comeback. Richards has allowed sevenearned runs over 5 1/3 innings since his return. Four of them earned runs werein his last start facing this same Diamondbacks team, but the last time was inSan Diego. Tonight, he is heading to Arizona and a negative park shift. The D’Backsare in full play on this 9/28 MLB DFS Slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	wOBA	wRC+
Ketel Marte	454	10.10%	14.10%	0.72	8	0.404	150
Abraham Almonte	33	15.20%	24.20%	0.63	0	0.399	147
Kevin Cron	57	5.30%	33.30%	0.16	0	0.341	109
Christian Walker	423	9.00%	27.00%	0.33	7	0.341	109
Eduardo Escobar	491	8.60%	18.90%	0.45	4	0.335	105
Alex Avila	162	19.80%	34.60%	0.57	1	0.331	102
Domingo Leyba	26	15.40%	30.80%	0.5	0	0.326	98
Wilmer Flores	172	6.40%	10.50%	0.61	0	0.325	98
Tim Locastro	150	4.70%	14.70%	0.32	16	0.318	94
Adam Jones	357	5.90%	19.00%	0.31	2	0.311	89
Nick Ahmed	460	8.00%	19.30%	0.42	7	0.297	80
Carson Kelly	261	12.30%	21.80%	0.56	0	0.296	79
Jarrod Dyson	395	10.60%	18.50%	0.58	29	0.274	65
Jake Lamb	194	12.90%	24.20%	0.53	1	0.271	63
Josh Rojas	115	9.60%	25.20%	0.38	2	0.262	57
Ildemaro Vargas	156	5.10%	13.50%	0.38	1	0.261	56
Caleb Joseph	32	3.10%	21.90%	0.14	0	0.208	22

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick – Play These Picks Now By Clicking Here and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

The reality is Mike Foltynewicz has been incredible lately, and I am also sure that a ton of DFS writers are putting him out there today. My rule as a DFS writer is simple, if I am not going to use a player in my lineup, I will not include them in my article. But he is in a great spot, I just smell regression. Folty has only had eight strikeouts once this season, back on May 31st facing the Tigers. Under all the way.

Steven Matz has achieved these number a few times this season facing the Braves. With everything well in hand for Atlanta, I see some bench playing time today. Over all the way.

The Padres are among the league leaders in strikeouts versus LHPs, this is not a good thing for them. Robbie Ray has a 12.0 K/9, which is a very good thing for him. Over all the way.

Richards will be lucky enough to survive three innings tonight before being sent to the showers. Under.

A word if I may. Thank you to my beautiful wife Jennifer for taking my hand in marriage six years ago today. You put up with endless sports on the TV, loud and obnoxious hardcore music, and my grumpiness on a daily basis. I love you and hope we have many more years together. Happy Anniversary.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/17 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Mets Marauding Melville

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a loaded 14-game 7:05 EST main slate for MLB 9/17 DFS – one that we’ve got some high game totals for, including another big-time stack at Coors. The lineups get unstable toward the end of the year, but that just gives us more opportunities to embrace the variance and make it fun on this enormous slate.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

NewYork Mets at Tim Melville (NYM at COL)

The Mets are expensive but have the highest implied total on the slate. Last night they scored just four runs in Coors but on Tuesday get to face Melville, who’s been torched in his three home starts (.516 xwOBA, 9.00 ERA, 6.31 xFIP). I’ll be applying a liberal smattering of Mets hitters in most of my lineups, with most of my exposure coming with the first five hitters: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano and Pete Alonso. Wilson Ramos is a very affordable $2,900 on FD as well, where he can be used in one of two spots.

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Webb (BOS vs. SF)

The Sox may be missing Mookie Betts (foot) but they’re still a powerful bunch of bats in a hitter’s park. Logan Webb has been tuned up for a .400 xwOBA vs. RHP) during his short time in the Majors, and he’s not going to like the ballpark shift from Oracle. The usual suspects (Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi) are all $5,000 or under on DK, and Mitch Moreland is just $4,200.

Toronto Blue Jays at Dylan Bundy/Chandler Shepherd

The Blue Jays are a sneaky stack in a slate with Coors Field on the docket, and they’ll be playing in Baltimore, where the homers fly out and the Orioles pitching staff has reached a new nadir in allowing the long ball. I’m stacking the 1-5 with occasional shares of Randal Grichuk ($4,300 DK) and Billy McKinney ($3,300 DK).

Cleveland Indians vs. John Schreiber/Spencer Turnbull (CLE vs.DET)

The Indians are underpriced for the matchup on this 9/17 DFS slate, whether it’s against Schreiber (the possible opener) or Turnbull, who’s really struggled this season (3-15 in 27 starts with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). I’m leaning toward mini-stacks considering there are so many other great matchups on this slate, but feel free to grab shares of the 1-5 hitters and get some exposure to the value bats (Franmil Reyes, Mike Freeman and Jordan Luplow, if he’s in the lineup).

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves at Vince Velazquez (It’s tough to fadeFreeman and Co. in a hitter’s park)

Miami Marlins at LHP Alex Young (all the righties –including my guy Starlin Castro)

Colorado Rockies vs. Marcus Stroman (The contrarian side ofCoors against a decent RHP)

9/17 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,900)

I’m a huge fan of Realmuto, who sports a .443 xwOBA and .227 ISO against LHPs over the past two seasons. It’s a one-off play that should command low ownership and provide a decent floor – as well as immense upside in GPPs.

9/17 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Rowdy Tellez, TOR at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

Tellez has four homers in his last 11 games, crushes right-handedpitching (.453 xwOBA, .245 ISO since 2018), and bats fourth between Lourdes Gurrieland Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Tellez is my double-dinger call of the day, and he’snot really thrown off by lefty relievers, either (.430 xwOBA against LHPs since2018).

9/17 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,700)

Biggio is another Jays bat I want exposure to in Camden Yards, where he’s already got three homers in five career games and a 168 OPS+ that screams GPP play. As part of stack or simply a value bat at a reasonable price, Biggio makes a solid play for his speed and power.

9/17 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Matt Chapman, OAK vs. KC

DK ($4,200) FD ($3,600)

Chapman and his surging power numbers (4 HRs in September so far) couldbe overlooked on this slate, and if you’re wary of spending more than $5K for J.D.Davis but still want to get some other Coors bats in, he could be a big help.All these games matter for the A’s, and Chapman (.423 xwOBA and .250 ISO vs.RHPs since 2018) is the heart and soul of their lineup along with Matt Olsonand Marcus Semien, the other two Oakland bats with 30+ homers this year.

9/17 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,000)

Lindor is my favorite shortstop of this slate. He gets lotsof ABs and benefits from a circular Indians lineup that has some decent hittersat the bottom of the order – giving him some run-creating opportunities alongwith table-setting ability. His price is cheaper than Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Storyand Bo Bichette on DK (with just as much GPP upside) and he’s playable in allformats at home (where he owns a .386 wOBA and .403 xwOBA sine 2018) against theTigers.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. SF

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Idiscussed the Red Sox stack up top, but if there’s one bat from Boston I’d likein this matchup, it’s J.D. His .506 xwOBA vs. RHPs since 2018 (over a hugesample of 998 plate appearances) means he can hit all types of pitching (it’s apreposterous .560 vs. LHPs) and he’s still surrounded by Bogaerts andBenintendi, who both hit RHPs well. I’m banking on a three-run homer for the RedSox OF/DH in hitter-friendly Fenway against young Logan Webb (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP).

Oscar Mercado, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,000)

Thehome numbers for Mercado are impressive (.290/.340/.477) and his bat has beenshowing some life again (10 hits in his last 26 AB). You’re getting thetalented young OF at a discount on both sites, and he’s a great piece to havein Indians mini stacks along with Lindor and Carlos Santana.

Garrett Hampson, COL vs. NYM

DK ($3,500) FD ($3,200)

Hampson is red-hot at the plate and is dirt cheap onDK. He’s played much better since getting more regular time, starting in theRockies’ last five straight and games and going 11-for-22 over that stretch(counting Monday night). He’s easy to overlook in the lineup as the No. 7 hitterand makes plenty of sense in both cash games and GPPs.

Additional options:

C:Roberto Perez ($3,600 DK, $2,900FD), Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD)

1B: Pete Alonso ($5,600 DK, $4,300 FD), Carlos Santana($4,300 DK, $3,900 FD)

2B: Robinson Cano ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD), Jonathan Villar($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD), EugenioSuarez ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Xander Bogaerts ($5,000DK, 3,800 FD)

OF: Austin Meadows ($5,600 DK, $4,400 FD), Yordan Alvarez ($5,200DK, $4,100 FD), Brandon Nimmo ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD), Khris Davis ($3,800 DK,$3,200 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD), Matt Joyce ($4,100 DK, $2,400FD)

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/10 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: The Cards in Coors

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s tasty Tuesday, and I’m feeling hungry for more action in some GPPs in 9/10 DFS. Let’s fill our plates with some prime MLB DFS hitting picks and satiating stacks for the massive 14-game 7:05 main slate, focusing on what promises to be a run-happy Coors game, a team from the West Coast arriving in a hitter’s paradise, and another sneaky stack or two in good matchups and park upgrades.

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9/10 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

St. Louis Cardinals at Chi Chi Rodriguez

The Redbirds have the highest implied total on the slate at 7+ runs and should have no problems hitting the weak offerings of Chi Chi Rodriguez into the cavernous, expansive gaps in the Coors power alleys. A full stack is in order here, with ample shares of the Cards’ 1-5 hitters – Dexter Fowler (DK $4,500, FD $3,600), Kolten Wong (DK $4,800, FD $3,500), Paul Goldchmidt (DK $5,100, FD $4,300), Marcel Ozuna (DK $5,300, FD $4,100), and Paul DeJong (DK $4,800, FD $3,900), and a few combinations that include Yadier Molina (DK $4,300, FD $3,400), Tommy Edman (DK $5,400, FD $3,300) and value option Harrison Bader (DK $3,900, FD $3,000).

Los Angeles Dodgers at Ty Blach

When the Dodgers have faced Blach in the past, it’s been in San Diego or LA, but now they get the scuffling lefthander in Baltimore, where the balls jump out of the park in droves. Blach’s currently sporting a 10.95 ERA and 2.15 WHIP over 24.2 IP in the majors this season, and his minor league numbers are just as pathetic. There are several possible mixtures of the usual 1-5 hitters but A.J. Pollock (DK $4,700, FD $3,800), who has a .401 xwOBA versus LHPs since 2018, David Freese (who’s $5,400 on DK but just $2,700 on FD) and Kiké Hernandez (DK $4,000, FD $2,600) look like good targets to build from and add Cody Bellinger and/or Justin Turner (DTD).

Colorado Rockies at Michael Wacha

The Rockies have been in a hellish 3-17 nosedive in their past 20 games, but a return to Coors is just what they need to liven up that lumber and score some runs. They may not notch a win against the Cards, but the bats of Nolan Arenado (DK $5,300, FD $4,600), Trevor Story (DK $5,400, FD $4,500) and Charlie Blackmon (DK $5,500, FD $4,500) make for an appealing mini-stack if you can afford them. Wacha has an xwOBA approaching the .400 mark over the past two seasons, and the Rockies have the second highest implied total of the slate at over 6 runs.

9/10 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Houston Astros at Tanner Roark

Minnesota Twins vs. Anibal Sanchez

9/10 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($4,900) FD ($3,800)

I love Realmuto at home against LHPs, and I professed as much in my firstpiece for WinDailySports.com. We’re going back to the well with the Phillies catcher facingMax Fried, who’s not as good against RHBs (.373 xwOBA since 2018). Realmuto’sbeen raking since the start of September and makes for a solid backstop andone-off to differentiate your lineups.

9/10 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Paul Goldschmidt, STL at COL

DK ($5,100) FD ($4,300)

I mentioned him in my Cards stack above, but I’m including himhere to reiterate that I’ll be having close to 100 percent exposure to Goldy inthis matchup. The veteran first baseman has a .327/.415/.608 career slash with15 homers in 289 Coors field plate appearances, so he’s tops on my list andisn’t nearly as expensive as he should be.

9/10 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Nick Solak, TEX vs. TB

DK ($3,900) FD ($3,300)

Solak has made an immediate impression in DFS with a.328/.449/.500 slash in his first 19 games in the bigs, with a .320 ISO vs.LHPs. He’s going to be low-owned facing the capable Ryan Yarbrough, comes at adiscount, and bats fourth in a hitter’s park. There’s plenty to like if you’relooking for value component with some positional flexibility (2B/3B on DK) thatoffers ample upside.

9/10 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Rafael Devers, BOS at TOR

DK ($5,200) FD ($3,800)

Devers absolutely crushes Toronto pitching, and since we don’t know how long T.J. Zeuch will toe the slab on Tuesday, he’s a fine option no matter who’s on the hill. In 15 games against the Jays (59 AB) he’s slashing .441/.484/.915 with 8 homers and just 7 Ks. He’s expensive, but he should command less ownership than Nolan Arenado at the hot corner and offers a high-upside pivot from the Coors game

9/10 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Paul DeJong, STL at COL

DK ($4,800) FD ($3,900)

Like the other Paul on this team, I’m having a hard timeclicking on any other name at his respective position. Trevor Story is obviouslyan option, but DeJong’s a little more affordable and has just as much upside ina larger implied total. He’s only played a couple games in Coors, but he has ahomer, sports a .411 road xwOBA over his past couple seasons, and shouldn’thave trouble with Chi Chi or the Rockies bullpen.

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9/10 DFS Hitting Outfielders

A.J. Pollock, LAD at BAL

DK ($4,700) FD ($3,800)

We’rea few games removed from Pollock’s 3-HR day, but if there’s a spot to jump onboard, it’s now. He’s hitless in his last two games but gets a massive parkupgrade and shouldn’t be as highly owned as the Cards OF and some of the biggername bats. Dodgers OF Chris Taylor (DK $4,400, FD $2,800) could be the pivot ifyou’re looking to fit some different Dodgers bats and need some savings.

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200) FD ($4,000)

Acuna led off last night’s game with a homer and now has 38 round trippers on the season. He’s fared well against the Phillies this season with a .333/.452/.529 slash – and he’s got a massive .487 xwOBA and .279 ISO vs. LHPs. Jason Vargas has pitched well this season, but he’s benefited from a low BABIP (.266) and has given up 15 HRs to RHBs.

Dexter Fowler, STL at COL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,600)

Grabbing the leadoff hitter in any stack is always a smart move, andwhile Fowler doesn’t offer the same raw power as the other Cards bats, he’scertainly got the bat skills to rope some doubles and triples in Coors Field, wherehe began his Major League career. The numbers in that venue are staggering(.300/.397/.492 with 67 doubles, 35 triples and 29 HR in 342 games, 290 of whichhe started).

Additional options:

C: Yadier Molina, Austin Hedges (DK $2,600)

1B: Eric Thames (FD $2,700), Ryan O’Hearn (DK $3,400, FD $2,400)

2B: Kiké Hernandez (FD), Kolten Wong

3B: UPDATED (Gyorko NOT STARTING today) Yoan Moncada, Travis Shaw (value)

SS: Manny Machado (DK $4,000, FD $3,500), Jean Segura (DK$4,000, FD $3,000)

OF: Nick Castellanos (DK $4,500), Phillip Ervin (DK $3,200), Trent Grisham (DK $3,100), Yordan Alvarez (FD $4,200), Cody Bellinger, Austin Meadows

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Bombs Over the Bronx

5 years ago

written by

For the record, I go into Texas high school football mode tonight, but since Friday Night Lights doesn’t make me (or you) copious amounts of the long green, then the 8/30 DFS Hitting Picks is a nice consolation.

All but one game is played in the lights and there’s plenty of nifty stack plays awaiting.

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8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Catcher

Jorge Alfaro, MIA at WAS

DK ($3,700), FD ($2,700)

Sometime in the past week, Alfaro tapped into his inner Joe Mauer, circa 2009. As a result, he’s ripped off five straight multi-hit games and has averaged better than 27 FanDuel points in that span. Alfaro homered in three straight games this week, helping to elevate his HR/BB% to 28% along with a fast-rising 43.8% line drive rate.

With an OPS over 1.100 over the past two weeks, I think Alfaro continues his hitting tear on the road against Nats hurler Anibal Sanchez, who has pitched well of late but has struggled when his line drive rate (24%) looks a lot less like his 2018 total (18%).

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – First Baseman

Mark Canha, OAK at NYY

DK ($5,300), FD ($3,400)

This won’t be the last time this game is mentioned. Canha has been a bargain banger, recording hits in 10 of his last 11 with four homers and 12 RBI. He’s been a blessing for FanDuel users, having recorded four games of at least 24.70 points during the same span. Canha walks at a 13.3% rate, somewhat understandable considering the amount of lumber in the A’s offense. His .271 Isolated Power is almost even with his .277 batting average.

A weekend at Yankee Stadium awaits Canha, who has a 23.2% HR/FB% and 42.7% fly ball rate and faces CC Sabathia. The Yankees starter has allowed right-handed hitters to tag him for 19 homers and a .287/.343/.543 (.892 OPS). Indeed, a solid 8/28 DFS Hitting and Stacks play.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Second Baseman

Jose Altuve, HOU at TOR

DK ($5,100), FD ($4,200)

In 161 fewer at-bats from last season, Altuve has already equaled his career-best with 24 homers. That number could be eclipsed tonight as Altuve and the Astros head up north for a weekend set against the Blue Jays. His Isolated Power (.251) is .116 better than last year as he’s exchanged a career-high 39.4% hard contact rate and a slight bump in fly ball rate (30.7%) while watching his line drive rate dip to 18.3%.

What’s insane is that Altuve went .321/.384/.634 (1.018 OPS) with eight homers, 19 RBI and 32 runs scored this month and may not have been the best player in his lineup. Ponder that one for a second.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE at TB

DK ($4,800), FD ($4,500)

Lindor launched his fourth homer in his last six games during Thursday’s win over the Tigers and remains worth the price to add to any 8/30 DFS Hitting Picks lineup. He’s put up at least 15.50 FanDuel points in five of his last six games and has produced an OPS over 1.200 in the past week.

If you look at his hard contact rate, you’ll see it’s increased with each passing season, going from 25.5% in his rookie season in 2015 to his current 43.7%. While his Isolated Power has dipped to “just” .231, Lindor’s second half run has been fueled by an increased BABIP that has gone from .279 in 2018 to .313 this season.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Third Baseman

Nolan Arenado, COL vs. PIT

DK ($5,700), FD ($4,700)

Including Thursday night’s effort against the Pirates, six of Arenado’s last 13 hits have been of the extra base persuasion, making him platinum-locked as a 8/30 DFS Hitting Picks member. When is it a bad thing to see a hitter of Arenado’s caliber delivering a 44.1% fly ball rate in Coors Field, where he also has an OPS over 1.000? I’ll wait.

Even with a slight dip in hard contact rate (41.6% compared to last season’s 42.9%) and HR/FB% (17.8%, 20.7% in 2018), Arenado at home against a pitcher (Dario Agrazal) who has a 1.84 HR/9 rate and 43.2% fly ball rate is money.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. OAK

DK ($5,300), FD ($4,500)

A week ago, Judge had just two homers in the month of August to go along with an OPS that barely hovered over .700. Five homers and 1.485 OPS later, Judge comes into tonight’s game with a .921 OPS this month with 15 of his 28 hits going for extra bases. The recent tear has pushed Judge’s Isolated Power to .236, putting him on par with last year’s .249. He’s dirty after dark, as Judge sports a .934 OPS in night games.

Judge is putting together a solid 29.6% line drive rate, yet isn’t getting enough lift (29% fly ball rate) to justify a vicious 55.4% hard contact rate. Take him into the lineup as Judge’s 1.179 OPS against lefties won’t be good news for A’s starter Brett Anderson, who has a lifetime 6.86 ERA against the Yankees in eight career starts.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Sam Hillard, COL vs. PIT

DK ($4,000), FD ($2,900)

(Yet) another rookie who has debuted swinging like a first-ballot Hall of Famer, Hillard has wallopped a pair of homers among his first three big league hits. In only eight at-bats, Hillard has given DFSers a sample of his work in Triple-A, where he hammered 35 homers. He also stole 22 bases en route to producing a freakish 1.569 OPS.

Hilliard had a 41% fly ball rate and a 41.5% pull rate in the minors this season, traits that should allow him to thrive in Coors Field against hapless Pirates pitchers this weekend, including the aforementioned Agrazal. If he’s in the lineup, Hillard is a bargain.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Aristides Aquino, CIN at STL

DK ($4,900), FD ($4,100)

Aquino has shook off a brief slump and has returned to mauling hurlers at a historic pace. He comes to the Gateway to the West with three homers and an 1.173 OPS in the past week, continuing a month that has seen Aquino go .330/.393/.804 (1.197 OPS). As far as first months go, Aquino has made a hell of an impression.

Aquino came into the majors with a .337 Isolated Power in Triple-A, only to destroy that mark, raising it to .474. His hard contact rate has come down to 38.9%. However, his fly ball rate is a strong 47.2% and you certainly live with his 23.4% strikeout rate. Something will give between him and Cards hurler Dakota Hudson. Bet on the Red.

8/30 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/30 Hitting Stack of the Day: New York Yankees: Build with Judge as the foundation and add Gleyber Torres ($4,900 DK) and Gary Sanchez ($4,700 DK). Attempting to go all-in toward a hard out Yankees stack will cost you when it comes to pitching, so look after Luke Voit ($5,100 DK) or D.J. LeMahieu ($5,300 DK)

8/30 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Oakland A’s: Wheel out the right-handed bats, starting with Canha, who is enough of a bargain to allow you to add Matt Chapman ($4,700 DK). Josh Phegley ($3,800 DK) has a homer and 1.182 OPS in 11 at-bats against Sabathia. Even in a lefty-lefty scenario, Matt Olson ($4,600 DK) is a good play.

8/30 Hitting Stack to Consider: Pittsburgh Pirates: Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has a 6.80 ERA at Coors Field and allows hitters to batter him to the tune of a .310 batting average. Bryan Reynolds ($5,600 DK) is a good start, but Kevin Newman ($5,200 DK), Collin Moran ($4,600 DK), Melky Cabrera ($3,900 DK) and Josh Bell ($5,700) are strong options.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

GPP Stacks: MLB Winning Edge for August 25

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 11-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

GPP Stack: Houston Astros

vs.RHP Jamie Barria (LAA): 6.25 Runs

**Low Risk

GPP Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. LHP Eric Skoglund (KCR): 6.20 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Jose Ramirez is out on injury and I’m not particularly crazy about this team without him.

Preferred Stack: Carlos Santana ($4000 FD|$5400 DK), Francisco Lindor ($4300 FD|$5200 DK), Franmil Reyes ($2500 FD|$3800 DK), and Yasiel Puig ($3300 FD|4400 DK).

Other Teams I Have Interest in

GPP Stack: Atlanta Braves**

vs. LHP Steven Matz (NYM): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

The Braves are six games up on the Nationals for the top seed and they’re going to need to keep their foot on the gas here. Matz is allowing a measley slash line of .260 wOBA, .353 SLG, and .268 OBP in the second half of the season. He has performed well in his last 10 starts but he has to come back down to earth at some point. The Braves are certainly risky here but there are a few guy’s in the lineup who hit lefties well and we will likely get pretty low ownership here with everyone chasing that watered down Cleveland squad.

GPP Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. LHP Matt Boyd (DET): UPDATE

**Moderate Risk

Man, this is a tough one. On one side you have one of the best hitting teams in baseball slashing a ridiculous .345 ISO and 193 WRC+ to lefties over the last two weeks. On the other side you have Matthew Boyd who has had his ups and downs but he has been solid on the road, only allowing righties to slash .276 wOBA, .372 SLG, and .276 OBP. My thought is that Boyd is going to get rocked. You can make an argument to throw Boyd out there in GPP’s but this Twins lineup is just hitting way too good right now and Boyd’s inconsistencies like to rear their ugly head every other game.

GPP Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

vs. RHP Anthonio Senzatela (COL): 5.10 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Marcell Ozuna ($3700 FD|$5000 DK), Paul Goldschmidt ($3500 FD|$4200 DK), and Dexter Fowler ($3200 FD|$4000 DK). Matt Carpenter ($2700 FD|$3700 DK) If you’re looking for four man stack I like him for the platoon advantage.

GPP Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. LHP Cole Hamels (CHC): 5.10 Runs

GPP Stack: Colorado Rockies**

vs. RHP Michael Wacha (STL): 5.10 Runs

**Low Risk

Michael Wacha is just a terrible pitcher and even though the Rockies aren’t a great hitting team on the road I still like the matchup here and I will ignore road slash lines for Colorado. This team and Atlanta are my sneaky picks for the day.

Preferred Plays: Charlie Blackmon ($2600 FD|$5300 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), Trevor Story ($3800 FD|$5300 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3200 FD|$4400 DK).

Pitching

Shane Bieber RHP (CLE): 2.50 Runs
Aaron Nola RHP (PHI): 3.25 Runs
Dylan Bundy RHP (BAL): 5.40 Runs
Brock Burke RHP (TEX): 4.80 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks

5 years ago

written by

Nine of Thursday’s games will be under the lights, so pay no mind to the happenings at Wrigley between the Giants and Cubs or the conclusion of the Royals at Red Sox matchup that was suspended on August 7. If you want to make the long green, the 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks is all about getting dirty after dark.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Catcher

Will Smith, C, LAD vs. TOR

DK ($4,600), FD ($3,800)

Normally, I’d suggest a bargain play behind the plate, but Smith has homered in each of the first two games of the series against the Blue Jays and comes into Thursday with six games of double-digit FanDuel points in his last seven starts. Smith has a 1.219 OPS while racking up 20 extra base hits among his first 28 professional hits. He’s also sporting a 10.2% walk rate and is making the most of his 51.6% hard contact rate by putting the ball in the air 54.8% of the time.

As vicious as Smith’s .314 BABIP feels, take a gander at his .488 Isolated Power. That’s some Ivan Drago with a bat and plate discipline stuff there. The way Smith has been swinging it almost feels like what Drago’s handler said in the early part of Rocky IV: Whatever he hits, he destroys. So trust that Smith will do so as your 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks backstop.

8/22 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Jose Abreu, CWS vs. TEX

DK ($4,600), FD ($4,000)

Wednesday’s three-hit effort gave Abreu a third straight game of at least 20 FanDuel points, continuing an August assault on American League hurlers that’s resulted in six homers and 20 RBI and a .995 OPS. Looking more like his rookie season in 2014, Abreu has elevated his HR/FB% to 23% despite a fly ball rate that has dipped to 31.7%. He’s maintained a solid line drive rate (21.6%) and Isolated Power (.223) despite a dip in walk rate to a career-low 4.9%.

Expect the heat from his August bat to continue at the expense of Rangers starter Ariel Jurado, who has allowed righties to tag him at a .324 clip in his last seven starts. You’ll love Abreu if he gets the opportunity to hit up Jurado with runners on base; Jurado has allowed a .317 batting average with runners in scoring position.

8/22 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Jonathan Villar, BAL vs. TB

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,800)

Improved plate discipline is behind Villar’s second half tear that continued on Wednesday with his fifth two-hit game in the last week. After a tepid .326 OBP in the first half, Villar has raised it to .391 after the All-Star Break along with a 151-point jump in OPS from .747 to .898. He also smacked his 17th homer in Wednesday’s victory, putting his .171 Isolated Power on par with his career-best power season in 2016 with the Brewers, where he hit 19 homers. Villar isn’t smacking the ball hard (27.3% hard contact rate), but is making the most of a 50.4% medium contact rate, which will work more favorably against Rays ace Ryan Yarborough.

Why suggest Villar against a lights out pitcher like Yarborough has been in the second half? Because you take caution in the wind and take the hitter with the 1.039 OPS over the month of August. Thank me later if you take Villar.

8/22 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Amed Rosario, NYM vs. CLE

DK ($4,100), FD ($3,100)

He’s found the pay station in three straight games and comes into Thursday with a blistering .571/.613/.750 slash over the past week and a .952 OPS post All-Star Break. Rosario is thriving behind a .348 BABIP with a wRC+ of 106. His speed rate has dipped a bit to 6.3 but he’s made up for that with more pop, evidenced by his .171 Isolated Power, a 34-point jump from last season. That extra kick is also shown in his hard contact rate, which now stands at 35.4% while his soft contact rate has fallen to 12.8.

The 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks does offer its share of solid shortstops to choose from, but Rosario is the only hitting like it’s a video game.

8/22 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Asdrubal Cabrera, WAS at PIT

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,800)

When he’s good, he’s good, having delivered eight RBI split up between two games over the past week. Cabrera has put together two exceptional scoring outbursts for his users coming into the finale of the four-game set against the Pirates and has been in a two-week stretch that has seen him produce a 1.044 OPS in that span.

His recent tear has boosted his line drive rate to 23.6% along with a hard contact rate that has eclipsed 40% for the first time in his career. He’s more of a power threat against lefties, something to keep in mind as the Pirates wheel out southpaw Steven Brault to the mound.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Hunter Pence, TEX at CWS

DK ($5,500), FD($4,000)

The seemingly ageless Pence has gone .351/.467/.541 (1.008 OPS) over the past two weeks and hits the road for a weekend set at the hitter’s haven known as Guaranteed Rate Field. Pence is more productive outside Arlington, where he’s posted a 1.014 OPS and swatted 11 of his 18 homers. Add the fact that Pale Hose starter Ross Detwiler brings it from the left side, and Pence — who hits lefties to the tune of .333/.385/.648 and a 1.048 OPS — becomes more solid when it comes to grabbing an outfielder who can be a major contributor to any 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks lineup.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Charlie Blackmon, COL at STL

DK ($5,400), FD ($4,600)

Blackmon heads into St. Louis having recorded seven multi-hit games in his last nine starts during an August that has seen him nearly double (1.164) his July OPS (.664). Even despite a noticeable dip in walk rate (5.6%), Blackmon is having another outstanding season that has been bolstered by a career-high .280 Isolated Power and .358 BABIP.

This is also a good time to run with Blackmon, whose post All-Star Break has taken a bit of a drop to “just” .930 and is likely to see more time off as the Rockies’ Wild Card hopes dip with each passing day.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. DET

DK (5,800), FD ($4,200)

To throw another Rocky IV quote, Alvarez has shown “he’s a man,” having hit just .227 over the past week. Then again, that .227 has come with a pair of homers, a .379 OBP and .970 OPS. Perhaps we could be wrong. He’s been quiet, which is why I think that silence comes to an end at the expense of an improved yet still hitter’s chum in Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann, who has been mauled by lefties (.322/.391/.526) the way Jaws found Quint to be a tasty mid-morning snack.

I don’t think he’ll eclipse the 76.30 FanDuel points he racked up on August 10, but I get the feeling Alvarez has a 30-40 FD point night waiting in his bat.

8/22 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/22 Stack of the Night: Houston Astros: I’m going all-in with the Astros’ left-handed hitters, beginning with Alvarez and including Michael Brantley, who goes in at a reasonable $4,000 at FanDuel. This would be a good night to throw a low-risk, high-reward dart in Josh Reddick’s direction ($2,400 FanDuel). Of course, there’s the usual faces to consider in Alex Bregman, George Springer and Jose Altuve, and while you can’t all of them, I’d make sure the lefties are in.

8/22 Stack Runner-Up: Atlanta Braves: Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara — who I think will be an All-Star hurler down the road — struggles with control away from home, so I’d look at going big with Freddie Freeman, who has four homers over the past week despite a .217 batting average, and Ronald Acuna, Jr., who has also kept up his pop despite hitting just .238 in the last week. Josh Donaldson has hit well of late, putting together a .458 OBP and 1.358 OPS in the last week, so he’s a strong play as well.

8/22 Stack to Consider: Chicago White Sox: As mentioned in the Abreu profile, the White Sox are facing a starter that has been shelled over the past month. Abreu is a good foundation for a stack along with Eloy Jimenez, who has a pair of homers in the past week. Tim Anderson is hitting .433 over the past week, and I’d look at James McCann as another right-handed bat to throw into what should be a fun party off of Ariel Jurado.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Team Stacks: Winning Edge for August 17

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s nine-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB DFS Team Stack: Colorado Rockies

vs. RHP Hector Noesi (MIA): 7.80 Runs

**Low Risk

I hope all of you considered my advice yesterday when I said to fade Coors. Three runs from the Rockies isn’t a good fantasy output but that brings us to today. I am all over the Rockies. They face Hector Noesi, who has struggled with his splits his entire career. He has only pitched 11 innings this season, but owns a 8.18 ERA, 7.58 FIP, and 5.29 SIERA. He struggles where we need him to, allowing right handed batters to slash to a .387 wOBA, .640 SLG, and .321 OBP. Limited sample, but even in years past Noesi has always struggled to righties. The Rockies are slashing to a .338 wOBA, .196 ISO and 92 WRC+, just above their season averages. I will have a nice chunk of exposure to the Rockies tonight.

MLB DFS Team Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. RHP Asher Wojciechowski (BAL): 7.00 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Last night I faded Coors for Boston and it worked out pretty well. Today I will be doing the exact opposite and will be fading Boston. I’m not saying they aren’t in a good spot, cause it is the Orioles and their bullpen is awful as we all know. I’m not inclined to attack Wojcie with his respectable 27.5% K rate, although he has struggled in recent outings. My hope is the Coors letdown yesterday will drive ownership down and people will gravitate to this game instead. The Red Sox are hovering right around their season averages, slashing to a .349 wOBA, .217 ISO, and 113 WRC+ for the month of August.

Preferred Plays: Xander Bogaerts ($4200 FD|$5100 DK), Rafael Devers ($4400 FD|$5600 DK), and Mookie Betts ($4100 FD|$5200 DK), and Andrew Benintendi ($3700 FD|$4500 DK)

MLB DFS Team Stack: Minnesota Twins**

vs. RHP Ariel Jurado (TEX): 6.50 Runs

**Low Risk

Did somebody say two Coors Fields in one slate? I am all over the Twins tonight. An excellent hitting park, a bad pitcher, and one of the best hitting teams in the league that are slashing to a .349 wOBA, .230 ISO, and 114 WRC+ for the month of August. Ariel Jurado is one of, if not the worst pitcher on tonight’s slate. Jurado owns a 5.31 ERA, 4.80 FIP, and 4.96 SIERA. He has a 44% GB rate coupled with a .314 BABIP. Jurado also has the lowest K rate on the slate at 17% and he is facing the fourth best team in MLB in terms of strikeout percentage. It’s a hot one in Texas today, folks. Load up on the MIN bats.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB DFS Team Stack: San Francisco Giants**

vs. RHP Taylor Clarke (ARI): 4.85 Runs

**Moderate Risk

DFS Team Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers**

vs. RHP Mike Foltynewicz (ATL): 5.50 Runs

**Low Risk

Pitching

Jacob deGrom RHP (NYM): 3.20 Runs
German Marquez RHP (COL): 4.50 Runs
Dinelson Lamet RHP (SDP): 4.75 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Team Stacks: Winning Edge for August 16

5 years ago

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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 15-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

DFS Team Stack: Colorado Rockies

vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (COL): 7.75 Runs

**Moderate Risk

The Rockies unsurprisingly come in with the highest implied run total on the slate. They happen to be heating up again over the last month and are slashing to a .347 wOBA, .194 ISO, and 98 WRC+ against RHP. Sandy Alcantara has been fairly decent this year, owning a 4.44 ERA, 4.87 FIP, and 5.65 SIERA. I feel like this game can go either way. It will either be a low scoring pitcher’s night between Gray and Alcantara, or it will be a one sided blowout from the Rockies. Obviously the Rockies are the chalk play but Jon Gray is in a decent spot here despite the ballpark. The Marlins are still priced fairly cheap so they make for a good value stack, but I do prefer Jon Gray.

Preferred Stack: Charlie Blackmon ($4600 FD|$5500 DK), Daniel Murphy** (Way too cheap) ($3000 FD|$4100 DK), Ryan McMahon ($3600 FD|$4700 DK), and Trevor Story ($4400 FD|$5700 DK). Obviously Nolan Arenado ($4400 FD|$5400 DK) is in play but the salaries on this team are too high for both so I prefer Story.

DFS Team Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. RHP Aaron Brooks (BAL): 8.10 Runs

**Low Risk

Another sad day where I have to pick on my Orioles but it is warranted with how they’ve performed this season. The Orioles are the worst team in the league in terms of run differential at -243 and their bullpen is absolutely atrocious, ranking dead last in the league in terms of efficiency. Aaron Brooks will pave the way for that stellar bullpen, owning a 6.35 ERA, 6.13 FIP, and 4.82 SIERA. In addition to his poor season averages, he is allowing 2.36 HR/9 innings and 40% FB rate. The Red Sox are slashing to a .353 wOBA, .216 ISO, and .345 BABIP in the month of August. The Red Sox are another pricey stack but nonetheless in a great spot and a team that I favor more than the Coors chalk.

Preferred Plays: Xander Bogaerts ($4200 FD|$5300 DK), Rafael Devers ($4300 FD|$5600 DK), Mitch Moreland ($3200 FD|$4500 DK), and Mookie Betts ($4100 FD|$5200 DK). You should also consider: J.D. Martinez ($4300 FD|$5100 DK) and Marco Hernandez ($

DFS Team Stack: New York Yankees

vs. RHP Aaron Civale (CLE): 5.40 Runs

**High Risk

The Yankees let a lot of people down last night with the Indians breaking their spirit in the top of the first inning. They theoretically should bounce back tonight, but the pitcher they are facing (Civale) has had great outings in his first three starts in the bigs and has maintained a sub 3.00 ERA through his time in A ball. The Yankees are very expensive and I feel there is some uncertainty with this matchup. Obviously the Yankees have raw power and talent, but any time you’re facing a pitcher for the first time it can go either way. Nonetheless, the Yankees are slashing to a .350 wOBA, .276 ISO and 117 WRC+ against RHPs right now. Civale allowed one run and four hits while striking out five batters across six innings against the red hot Twins in his last start. Yankees are a fade for me tonight.

Preferred Plays: D.J. LeMahieu ($4300 FD|$5000 DK), Gio Urshela ($4400 FD|$5300 DK), Gleyber Torres ($4200 FD|$4800 DK), and Gary Sanchez ($4100 FD|$4500 DK).

Other Teams I Have Interest in

DFS Team Stack: Tampa Bay Rays

vs. LHP Daniel Norris (DET): 5.00 Runs

**Moderate Risk

DFS Team Stack: Toronto Blue Jays

vs. LHP Wade LeBlanc (SEA):UPDATE

**Low Risk

DFS Team Stack: New York Mets

vs. LHP Mike Montgomery (KCR): 5.20 Runs

Preferred Plays: Pete Alonso ($4000 FD|$5100 DK), J.D. Davis ($3100 FD|$4800 DK), Michael Conforto ($3500 FD|$4800 DK), and Amed Rosario ($2500 FD|$4000 DK).

Pitching

Charlie Morton (TAM): 2.50 Runs
Noah Syndergaard RHP (NYM): 3.80 Runs
Jon Gray RHP (COL): 4.90 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

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