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Christian Yelich

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/10 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather issues except a little light rain in the Windy City, and that wind is blowing in tonight.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($10,400)

With Gerrit Cole still looking lost a bit without his trusty sticky stuff, Buehler probably makes the most sense as the top ace on this small slate. While Cole does has another narrative at play here facing his former team — one that simply doesn’t strike out at normal human baseball team levels — Buehler is the largest favorite on the board and is the clear choice for cash games. Adam Strangis, in his must-read 7.10 Starting Rotation article, cites Buehler’s two appearances this season against a punchless D-Backs offense that resulted in 14.1 IP, 18 K’s, two ER, and just six free passes. His MLB DFS upside isn’t nearly what we’ve come to expect from a top ace, but he’s the safest option on the board.

Best GPP Value: Freddy Peralta ($9,900)

Peralta gets the nod for best GPP value because he’s under $10K, but if you need the added savings that bad, you could give Joe Musgrove a shot against the road Rockies, The thing I like about Peralta is his very steady K production, which helps give him a daily FD points projection of over 40 just about every game. The Reds do a good job of putting the ball into play, especially on the road, where the team K rate is a few percentage points lower than at home, but if Fab Finger Freddy can avoid the walks and the big blow, this should be a W and another 40-45 points. Musgrove will likely come in with higher ownership and makes more sense for MLB DFS on a site like DK, where you need to start two pitchers, and one can be very chalky.

Contrarian GPP Play: Patrick Sandoval ($7,700)

If you really want to see some savings at SP in large-field MLB DFS tourneys and stack up the big bats from the Dodgers, Brewers or other high-team-total offenses, you might have some interest in Sandoval, who’s made some adjustments to his pitch repertoire this season and carries a respectable 3.86/3.85 ERA/FIP combo into this matchup against one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Mariners strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB and give Sandoval the opportunity to not only eclipse his 25-30 point FD projection, but have a ceiling game in the 40-345 point range. He whiffed 10 Seattle batters in his last outing against the M’s and yielded just one walk and 2 ER en route to 46 FD points on June 6.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. CIN RHP Vladimir Gutierrez

While the Dodgers bats are simply too cheap, they don’t seem to match up well vs. LHP Caleb Smith, who shut them out in 6.0 IP last time out on June 18. The Brewers, on the other hand, get to face Gutierrez — who’s given up 25 hits and 11 BB over his last 25.1 IP. “Kind of Bad” Vlad has done okay against lefties so far this season, but he’s been abnormally lucky, as his xFIP splits (6.41 vs. LHB) tell a different story. Look to some combination of the first six (also pretty inexpensive) bats here: Luis Urias ($2,600), Christian Yelich ($3,400), Jace Peterson ($2,600), Omar Narvaez ($2,500), Willy Adames ($2,700) and Avisail Garcia ($3,100). Yelich and Narvaez would be my two-man core if I had to pick a couple bats to populate more of my MLB DFS builds.

Contrarian Stack #1: Houston Astros vs. NYY RHP Gerrit Cole

The Astros put the ball in play, and they’re at home against a pitcher who’s clearly not looking like his normal self. If they can get to him early, there’s massive GPP potential here in stacking some combination of these high-upside Houston bats, including: Jose Altuve ($4,200), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Kyle Tucker ($3,400) and Yordan Alvarez ($4,100) — who is 2-for-3 with two HR against Cole in his young career. I’m also willing to give a look to Martin Maldonado ($2,100) for some salary relief in a four-man stack that otherwise includes Altuve, Brantley and Alvarez. While it pains me to suggest stacking against my beloved Bombers on a short-handed slate, there just aren’t a ton of high-upside options to feast on tonight. I may have one Yankees stack as well, as Zack Greinke is long past his status as an MLB DFS ace.

Contrarian Stack #2: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. ARI LHP Caleb Smith

We discussed how they’ve struggled against LHP and Smith this season, but they are very cheap compared to their usual salaries and the ownership shouldn’t be out of control since they aren’t the highest projected total on the board. Mookie Betts ($3,500) is probably the lowest we’ll see him all season, and there’s plenty of upside in the bats of Justin Turner ($3,000), Chris Taylor ($3,000), Cody Bellinger ($3,300) and Max Muncy ($3,700). I really like the direct cheap prices on Albert Pujols ($2,100) and Will Smith ($2,500) if they end dup in the lineup too.

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/12 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s monster 14-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 4:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The weather concerns in this slate are sparse and minor, and we shouldn’t be concerned about any delays that could impact the pitchers we’re targeting today.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($12,000)

There’s definitely part of me who wants to roster Trevor Bauer, and the Dodgers RHP is certainly worth a look on DK at a discount, but on FD, Burnes makes the most sense as top dog, as he possesses the most strikeout upside on the slate. While some simulations actually have Bauer projected for a higher total tonight (even WinDaily’s model gives Bauer the slight value edge — likely due to the TEX team K rate of 26.8% vs. RHP), the new crackdown on foreign substances has had a detrimental effect on the K numbers of a few pitchers, “Tricky Trevor” included. Burnes, as Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 6/12 Starting Rotation article, is coming off a monster start where he racked up 13K and 70 FD points. He’s a top five MLB pitcher and FanDuel’s scoring allows him and his 18.5% swinging-strike rate (a metric that ranks behind only Jacob deGrom this season) the chance at 60+ each and every night he takes the mound. We’ll have to get a little creative with our hitting stacks to build something we can be confident with, but Burnes is a great option for cash games and I’ll be using him in some GPPs as well.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

For the second straight week, Muskrat Joe takes our top value spot. He was serviceable in that role last week with a 10 K outing, but he did get knocked around a little bit to the tune of 9 hits and 3 ER — and the pedestrian 5.0 IP kept him from receiving the crucial quality start bonus we need from our SP. Adam and I both like him for today’s slate, and the fact that he’s kept his ERA, FIP, and xFIP under 3.00 in this career year make me happy to recommend him against the Mets. who strike out at a team rate of 23.7%. Musgrove is carrying a career-high 34.2% K rate and limiting his free passes, and the Mets don’t have their usually lefty firepower without a few of their better offensive players. Joe’s unlucky 6/5 start still yielded 36 FD points, and this time he’s the same price and should eclipse the 40 mark.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jameson Taillon ($6,200)

I was actually a little giddy when I saw that Adam was on Taillon as a GPP value play today, because he’s one of the first options I considered when I thought “contrarian play” for this slate. Taillon is effective against right-handed bats and the Phillies (who have a bunch of them) strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB (26.4% — tied with MIA and MIL). I wouldn’t blame anyone for going a little safer with value options like TB LHP Rich Hill ($7,700 vs. BAL), but the Orioles relatively low K rate (20.2%) vs. LHP makes me think he lacks the same upside, value and leverage for GPPs. If we want to stack some of the best bats, we’ll need what Taillon offers in salary relief to get there.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. MIA RHP Zach Thompson

AS of 11:11 a.m. EST, there’s no line yet on this game, but you’d have to imagine that the high-powered Braves offense is projected for 5+ runs against a 27-year-old rookie making just his second major-league start. Thompson’s minor-league metrics don’t jump off the page and the Braves have just too much firepower to worry about using them. Go with Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Ozzie Albies ($3,400) and a still-discounted Austin Riley ($2,700) in a four-man stacks, swapping out Albies for value options (and righty mashers) William Contreras ($2,200) and Abraham Almonte ($2,100) if you need the salary savings to get four Braves in your build.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. PIT RHP Chad Kuhl

The Brewers have a bunch of risky but potent hitters in their lineup to go along with the consistently excellent bat of Christian Yelich ($3,800), including Avisail Garcia ($2,700), Omar Narvaez ($2,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), ~~Luis Urias~~ ($2,700) and Willy Adames ($2,200). Left-handed OF Jace Peterson is also an option at just $2,200. I’m particularly interested in four-man combos that prominently feature Narvaez, Yelich and Vogelbach as a three-man core, with Urias, Garcia, Peterson and Adames alternately making up the fourth Brewer bat. Giddyup!

Update: Luis Urias is sitting this one out.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland A’s vs. KC RHP Jackson Kowar

The A’s are never all that popular as a team stack on big slates, and today they could be in for an offensive explosion against Jackson Kowar, who carries a 54.00 ERA after one career start — a rocky debut outing against the Angels on Monday. The usual suspects are in play here, from “Mashing” Matt Olson ($3,500) to leadoff hitter ~~Mark Canha~~ ($3,700) and a slew of low-priced options including Tony Kemp (just $2,000!), ~~Jed Lowrie~~ ($2,900) and Sean Murphy ($2,400). I’m also quite enamored with Seth Brown ($2,400) as a risk-reward value option, and I’ll be mixing and matching a few different four-man combinations of these six A’s hitters in my large-field GPP entries.

Update: Both Lowrie and Canha are not starting on Saturday.

Other stacking options: NYY RH bats vs. PHI RHP Vince Velazquez, CIN LH bats vs. COL RHP German Marquez

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 4/17 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

We’ve got some live arms and potent bats in this edition of Aces and Bases focusing ONLY on FanDuel’s five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET.

There are no bad weather issues but a possible COVID outbreak on the Houston Astros means we have to stay vigilant on news and have pivots at the ready!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,900)

Kershaw is the highest-priced arm and the likely chalk, but I’d venture to say that Darvish has more contrarian upside in a home matchup against a team that’s not known for swing-and-misses, but doesn’t have a lot of experience facing Darvish. The Japanese marvel is notoriously tricky to solve and seemed at ease in his last two starts — and while Kershaw might be the preferred option in cash games, I’ll take the cheaper San Diego RHP in GPPs for some leverage on the field, since only a small percentage of DFS gamers will use pitchers against the “Boys in Blue.”

Best Value: Dane Dunning ($8,000)

I’m a little concerned about getting six innings from Dunning, and that seems to be where he’d max out at his current pitch count progression, but he’ striking out more than a batter per inning in three major league starts and the command for this 26-year-old RHP. He throws a nasty sinker that complements his four-seamer and mixes in a decent slider and occasional use of a change and curveball. The Orioles strike out at the second-highest clip in the majors this season and Dunning could offer the cheapest path to 8+ Ks and a quality start.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (RHP Chris Flexen)

The Astros have the fourth-highest team xOBA in baseball (.342) and shouldn’t have much trouble against the eminently hittable Chris Flexen. I’m most interested in some combination of the 2-6 hitters here, which could include Aledmys Diaz ($2,600), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Yuri Gurriel ($2,800), Kyle Tucker ($3,500) and Carlos Correa ($3,000). The prices are discounted a bit on these guys without Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman — who all hit the injured listed for undisclosed reasons, prompting rumors of a possible COVID outbreak. Stay tuned since there could be some news of a postponement or more players hitting that list.

Value/Contrarian Stack: Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (Jose Quintana)

So far this season, Jose Quintana has had a very difficult time retiring the 27 RH batters he’s faced, and he’s clearly on the downside of his career when those splits tend to become a little more exaggerated. The Twins are loaded with relatively inexpensive powerful righty hitters like Nelson Cruz ($3,800), Josh Donaldson ($3,000), Mitch Garver ($2,400) and Miguel Sano ($2,800). I was on them last night and they didn’t deliver against Andrew Heaney — a solid pitcher in his own right — but I’m going right back to the well. Cruz alone sports an obscene .570 wOBA and .440 ISO vs. LHP over his last 63 games, and Donaldson, Garver and Kyle Garlick ($2,200) all mash against LHP.

EDIT: The Twins-Angels game has been postponed, so remove any players associated with that game ASAP.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Trevor Cahill)

It’s not one of those slates where you need to deploy a very inexpensive secondary value stack, but the Brewers strike me as a classic boom-or-bust GPP stack you might want to mix into a few large, low-cost tournaments for their upside and potent lefty bats, including Travis Shaw ($2,900), Omar Narvaez ($2,700) and Christian Yelich ($4,100), who’s missed four straight with a back injury but is still considered DTD. If he can’t go, Billy McKinney ($2,000) could get the start, as both he and Jackie Bradley ($2,400) have been used to spell Yelich. Also keep an eye on Daniel Vogelbach at just $2,100. If you’re looking to run a Pirtes hitter back against the group, I’d prefer 3B Phillip Evans, who’s been raking against LHP this season and hits out of the 4 slot.

Good luck!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

7/27 MLB DFS: The Fearless Five (DK GPP)

TimmySigs 4 years ago

written by TimmySigs

Baseball is back and I’ve got five hitters for you to consider for the 7/27 MLB DFS Monday night slate in large-field DK GPPs, where it pays to be fearless!

7/27 MLB DFS – C Wilson Ramos (DK $3,800) NYM @ BOS

There’s certainly some firepower among the top few catchers in Monday’s slate, but spending down to Ramos makes sense for large-field GPPs, where the sub-$4K price tag and his upside in this excellent matchup (vs. Red Sox opener Josh Osich and primary long reliever Zach Godley) combine to give us great value. My favorite spend-up option on this slate was J.T. Realmuto (DK $4,600) facing his old battery mate J.A. Happ, but now I’m considering Cubs C Willson Contreras (DK $4,800) against the Reds.

7/27 MLB DFS – 1B C.J. Cron (DK $3,300) DET vs. KC

Cron has always been a risk-reward play in DFS, but he’s coming off a homer night and the price has not caught up to his enormous power upside, especially facing LHP Mike Montgomery. He’s dirt cheap and if you’re not spending big and rolling out the slow-starting Pete Alonso (DK $5,600 and a great GPP play at such a high price), it makes sense to find some value at 1B.

7/27 MLB DFS – 2B Nico Hoerner (DK $3,400) CHC @ CIN

I had planned on using Gleyber Torres here but with the Yankees-Phillies game postponed, I’ll tout my discount play. I’m very intrigued by what Nico Hoerner offers at such a huge discount, though in Astros stacks I’ll likely spend up for Jose Altuve (DK $5,000). The Cubs rookie (82 plate appearances in 2019) is off to a solid start and will look to keep it rolling against Reds LHP Wade Miley.

7/27 MLB DFS – SS Alex Bregman (DK $5,100) HOU vs. SEA

Bregman has hit safely in all three games thus far, and the multi-hit performances are right around the corner. There’s not much to be scared of by the likes of Seattle RHP Kendall Graveman, who now sports an upper 90s four-seam fastball to go along with his trademark sinker – pitches that Bregman feasts on. NYM S Amed Rosario (DK $5,000) is another GPP options best deployed in Mets stacks.

7/26 MLB DFS – OF Lorenzo Cain (DK $3,700) MIL at PIT

Christian Yelich (DK $5,900) really let us down yesterday, so we’re going to plug in his more contact-oriented teammate against Steven Breault. I’ll have some Milwaukee stacks where I play both, but Cain makes sense as a cheap, upside-laden one-off against a pitcher that doesn’t yield too many homers.

NOTE: With the postponement of the Orioles-Marlins and Yanks-Phils along with several rain-threatened games, finding suitable SPs is going to be a challenge. For now, I’m mostly rolling with Tyler Glasnow in a risky spot against the juggernaut Braves and GPP contrarian play Michael Wacha (NYM) against the much-less-potent Red Sox. This leaves plenty of room for Astros stacks and a smattering of value plays.

Good luck!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @LouisLipps and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Photo of Alex Bregman courtesy of Keith Allison.

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

7/26 MLB DFS: The Fearless Five (DK GPP)

TimmySigs 4 years ago

written by TimmySigs

I’ve got five hitters for you to consider for the early 7/26 MLB DFS 11-game slate in DK GPPs, where it pays to be fearless and swing for the fences!

7/26 MLB DFS – C Robinson Chirinos (DK $3,900) TEX vs. COL

The Rangers offense has been a bit slow out of the gate, but RHBsin that lineup have a favorable matchup vs. LHP Kyle Freeland. One fearless leftymasher who comes at a considerable discount is Chirinos – an ample power sourceat catcher and a guy who often flies under the radar in DFS. If you’re notpaying up for J.T. Realmuto (DK $4,800), Mitch Garver ($4,900) or ChristianVazquez (DK $4,300), Chirinos makes sense as part of a stack or as a one-off tosave a few bucks and get similar upside. *Note: Chirinos battled an ankleinjury near the close of camp and sat out Saturday but looks to be good to gofor today.

7/26 MLB DFS – 1B Joey Votto (DK $3,800) CIN vs. DET

Speaking of discounts, Votto is a relatively inexpensive veteran slugger off to an uncharacteristically hot start, with a couple HRs in his first two games. I’m intrigued by the Reds stack against eminently hittable Spencer Turnbull, who’s been known to issue the occasional free pass and give up the long ball. Spend-up options include Anthony Rizzo (DK $5,000) and one-off Josh Bell (DK $4,900), and the punt-worthy Michael Chavis (DK $2,900) is available at both 1B and 2B – but I’m putting about half my GPP eggs in the Votto basket on the early slate.

7/26 MLB DFS – SS Alex Bregman (DK $4,900) HOU vs. SEA

Thankfully, Bregman is available at both SS and 3B on DK, where there’s a few other guys I’d like to play at the hot corner. The Astros have the second-highest projected total after the Red Sox, and it’s a GPP priority to lock in Bregman and his eye-popping .417 career wOBA vs. LHP against Yusei Kikuchi, a southpaw with a home run problem. Xander Bogaerts (DK $4,600) got the day off Saturday but returns to the BoSox lineup this afternoon, so he’s a viable option as pivot from Bregman, in Boston stacks or alongside Bregman if you plug the latter in at 3B. Red-hot Didi Gregorius (DK $3,500) sticks out as a value option for the Phillies.

7/26 MLB DFS – 3B Mike Moustakas (DK $4,000) CIN vs. DET

I’d like to play both Reds 3B Eugenio Suarez (DK $4,500) and Moustakas on DK, but you have to take your pick since each player is limited to a singular position at the hot corner. While Suarez might see lower ownership, we can probably get our variance elsewhere, as the man who sounds like a delicious Mediterranean casserole comes in with the highest daily simulated projections in the Cincy lineup. He’s the anchor of a 1-2-4-5-6 Reds stack that won’t cost you a bundle, and his upside is similar to more expensive options like Josh Donaldson (DK $4,200) and Rafael Devers (DK $5,200).

7/26 MLB DFS – OF Christian Yelich (DK $5,600) MIL at CHC

I’m on board with using potent Reds leadoff hitter Jesse Winker (DK $3,500) and value option Shogo Akiyama (DK $2,000) – easy-to-fit stack components who could make or break the slate – but my favorite spend-up at OF on DK is Yelich, who annihilated RHPs to the tune of a .473 wOBA and 195 wRC+ in 2019. The Brewers star went 1-for-5 with a dinger in yesterday’s game and we could see the wind blowing out in Wrigley this afternoon. I’m also interested in seeing Joey Gallo (DK $4,300) solve the new roofed park in Texas, so I’ll be mixing in shares of him as well. Yelich is expensive, but my first few builds include him and all of the aforementioned players with Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco at my pitching spots – two of the highest projected starters in the slate.

ANOTHER NOTE: It’s also my 45th birthday today, so taking down one of the big GPPs on DraftKings would be the ultimate present! Good luck… and be fearless!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @LouisLipps and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Image of Christian Yelich courtesy of Erik Drost.

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8/6 MLB DFS Hitting/ Monkey Knife Fight Picks

Ethan Thiel 5 years ago

written by Ethan Thiel

A nice, big slate with several weather issues today and tonight in 8/6 MLB DFS. That is different from the last week or so where the weather was quiet.

8/6 MLB DFS Catcher

Will Smith, Cardinals at Dodgers ($3,300 FD, $4,100 DK): The Fresh Prince has been a big part of the powerful Dodgers offense since his recall a few weeks ago. He had the day off Sunday and should be in the lineup in a juicy matchup against Miles Mikolas, who has been worse on the road than at home this season.

8/6 MLB DFS First Base

Mike Ford, Yankees at Orioles ($2,300 FD, $3,900 DK): The Yankees have simply been amazing this season with well over 30 home runs hit at Camden Yards. Do you really think there is anything the Orioles can do to stop the Bronx Bombers tonight? Grab a cheap Yankee lefty against the Woj bomb, who came back down to earth in his last start.

8/6 MLB DFS Second Base

Eric Sogard, Blue Jays at Rays ($3,500 FD, $4,800 DK): A terrific pick-up by the Rays a few weeks ago from their opponent, Sogard homered last night against his former teammates and he has a good shot to repeat that tonight. A juicy matchup against Trent Thornton, who has the propensity to get blown up, awaits.

8/6 MLB DFS Shortstop

Bo Bichette, Blue Jays at Rays ($3,600 FD, $4,200 DK): I will be playing the kid Jays of Bichette, Biggio and Guerrero a lot over the last two months of the season and I really like his spot tonight.

8/6 MLB DFS Third Base

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays at Rays ($3,900 FD, $4,400 DK): Staying in St. Petersburg for this one, the Rays rarely get blasted but tonight I really believe they have a shot. They open Andrew Kittredge and then follow up with Ryan Yarborough. Vlad did not do much last night so at the pace he has been going at the last few weeks, he is due for a big game tonight.

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8/6 MLB DFS Outfielders

Mike Tauchman, Yankees at Orioles ($2,900 FD, $4,500 DK), Christian Yelich ($4,700 FD, $5,800 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4,800 FD, $5,500 DK): We spent down in a few spots above and now we can spend up in this spot. And then we go with one of the hottest players on the planet with Tauchman.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick

I love one of the trio of kid Jays to homer at the Trop tonight.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS Stacks for Main Slate: Winning Edge for July 12

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

Welcome back everyone! I know we have a few “new” guys on the Win Daily staff, as well as a few subscribers. I just wanted to welcome all of you. This report will provide recommended DFS stacks for today’s 13-game main slate.

**Please check back this afternoon between 5-6pm EST. Possible updates to lines once starting lineups are released.

New York Yankees

vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 7.10 Runs

The Yankees lost two games in a row going into the All-Star break and had only lost two in their previous 18. They are clearly the best team in baseball right now, boasting a 6.5 game lead on the Rays and 9.0 on the Red Sox. We all know how tricky the AL East can be after the break. These teams can close the gap rather quickly given their talents. Look for the Yankees to keep their foot on the gas and truck their way into the post season. Aaron Sanchez carries a 6.16 ERA, 5.56 FIP, and 5.57 SIERA into tonight’s game. His splits are identical, holding .a 361 wOBA, .391 OBP, and .451 OBP on the year. Coming out of the break, The Yankees are slashing to a .364 wOBA, .247 ISO, and 126 WRC+. They are hitting well above their season averages.

Los Angeles Angels

vs. RHP Mike Leake (SEA): 5.60 Runs

Mike Leake hasn’t been awful this season, carrying a 4.32 ERA, 4.89 FIP, and 4.55 SIERA into tonight’s game. These +4.00 ERA stat lines seem more of the norm this season with the elevated scoring. Leake has identical splits, holding a .330 wOBA, .303 OBP, and .493 SLG through 114. innings pitched. He has the displeasure of facing an Angels team who hold the lowest strikeout rate in MLB. They average 6.87 strikeouts per game on the year. The Angels are slashing .to a 321 wOBA, .191 ISO, and .458 SLG to right handed pitching over a two week span coming out of the break.

Preferred DFS Stacks Build: Mike Trout ($4700 FD|$5300 DK), Shohei Ohtani ($3900 FD|$4800 DK), and Justin Upton ($3500 FD|$3800 DK).

Milwaukee Brewers

vs. RHP Shaun Anderson (SFG): 5.60 Runs

Shaun Anderson heads into tonight’s matchup holding a 4.23 ERA, 4.38 FIP, and 5.28 SIERA through 55 innings pitched. He has identical splits with a .320 wOBA, .331 OBP, and .417 SLG. I’m really hoping for a healthy Christian Yelich here tonight as he has been experiencing some lower back discomfort on and off this season. The Brewers come out of the break slashing to a .297 wOBA, .223 ISO, and .423 SLG to right handed pitching. The Brewers are only a half game back on the Cubs, who actively seem to be trying to hand the Brewers the division, but they have been having issues of their own. An unhealthy Yelich certainly does not give this lineup a ton of appeal. Look for the Brewers to get it together coming off the break.

Preferred DFS Stacks Build: Christian Yelich ($4800 FD|$5200 DK), Eric Thames ($3200 FD|$4800 DK), Yasmani Grandal ($3500 FD|$4900 DK), and Mike Moustakas ($3900 FD|$4700 DK) if you prefer a full stack on FD.

Honorable DFS Stacks Mentions

San Diego Padres vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel (ATL): 4.30 Runs

Preferred Stack: Hunter Renfroe ($3000 FD|$4700 DK), Manny Machado ($3900 FD|$4100 DK), and Manuel Margot ($2600 FD|$3600 DK).

Oakland A’s vs. RHP Ivan Nova (CHW): 5.60 Runs

Preferred Stack: Matt Chapman ($3900 FD|$4800 DK), Matt Olson ($3800 FD|$5100 DK), Mark Canha ($2800 FD|$4300 DK), and Ramon Laureano ($3100 FD|$4500 DK).

St. Louis Cardinals vs. LHP Robbie Ray (ARZ): 4.50 Runs

Preferred Stack: Paul Goldschmidt ($3200 FD|$3800 DK), Jose Martinez ($2800 FD|$3500 DK), and Dexter Fowler ($2900 FD|$3700 DK).

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS Stacks for 6/28: Crack a cold Brew

Jared Contestabile 5 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

With both Coors and Miller hosting games that could turn into high-scoring affairs, there might be a lot of cracking cold brews as we watch the numbers turn on the scoreboard and in our DFS lineups.

1.) Los Angeles Dodgers

Antonio Senzatela is no more than a below average pitcher. At Coors this season he holds a 6.21 ERA and has given up five long balls. What doesn’t help his case is that he struggles against lefties. So far this season he has given up a .336 BAA and a .531 SLG. With the likes of Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger and Alex Verdugo, good luck. The Dodgers are going to have a field day and carry your DFS lineups.

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2.) Minnesota Twins

Carson Fulmer has had a horrible start to his young career. So far while at home in his career he holds a 7.81 ERA with a .390 wOBA. He is able to limit his hard contact, but he gives up massive fly ball rates. With the power hitters of Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, CJ Cron and Jorge Polanco, there is no reason why they won’t chase Fulmer back to the minor leagues on your way to winning big in DFS.

3.) San Diego Padres

What a downfall for Michael Wacha. Someone with such promising talent that just lost it all this year. On the road so far this season he holds a 5.21 ERA. So far this season he has been very reverse splits and cannot get a righty out for the life of him. Against righties he has a .338 BAA and a .619 SLG. Hunter Renfroe, Manny Machado and the young phenom in Tatis Jr. should be the staples of your DFS stack here.

4.) Milwaukee Brewers

How bad are the Pirates regretting this Chris Archer Trade? Holllllllllly. Archer has been dreadful this year, but he has been even worse away from Pittsburgh (8.42 ERA). It seems like Archer has been better against lefties, but the underlying numbers show that he gets hit harder, more fly balls and strikes them out less. This makes me love Yelich, Mouse, Grandal and I also don’t mind throwing in Braun for DFS purposes. This is a very sneaky stack for me as I assume everyone will jump all over Coors.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS: Top Hitters and Stacks for June 23rd

Marshall Rosen 5 years ago

written by Marshall Rosen

Sunday’s MLB action will include a couple of DFS studs on the bump in Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom. But it will also include plenty of pitchers that you can exploit when building your Daily Fantasy Sports lineups. To help you take advantage of today’s situation let’s take a look at some of the top bats and stacks for Sunday, June 23rd.

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Catcher – Yasmani Grandal vs. Anthony DeSclafani

FanDuel: $3,300 DraftKings: $4,700

The Brewers’ catcher has a .255 ISO versus right-handed pitchers in 2019. Grandal also has a .370 wOBA against righties. Grandal should take advantage and keep crushing righties in this one while carrying your DFS entries.

Value:

Zack Collins

FanDuel: $2,300

Danny Jansen

DraftKings: $2,100

First Base – Freddie Freeman vs. Joe Ross

FanDuel: $4,400 DraftKings: $5,300

Freeman has a .290 ISO and a .416 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The Nationals’ Ross is allowing a .369 wOBA to lefties in his career. Freeman should do well in your DFS lineups.

Value:

Eric Thames

FanDuel: $2,600

Tyler White

DraftKings: $3,200

Second Base – Jose Altuve vs. J.A. Happ

FanDuel: $3,800 DraftKings: $3,900

The Astros’ Altuve has a .389 ISO, a .473 wOBA and a 207 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching in 2019. Look for those numbers to jump up after this meeting with J.A. Happ. The lefty is allowing 2.03 HR/9 against right-handed batters this season.

Value:

Rougned Odor

FanDuel: $2,900

Carlos Sanchez

DraftKings: $3,000

Third Base – Yoan Moncada vs. Adrian Sampson

FanDuel: $3,600 DraftKings: $5,100

The White Sox’s third baseman has a .262 ISO versus right-handed pitching in 2019. He also owns a .529 wOBA and a 243 wRC+ against them this season.

Value:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

FanDuel: $2,800

Travis Shaw

DraftKings: $2,700

Shortstop – Alex Bregman vs. J.A. Happ

FanDuel: $4,200 DraftKings: $4,900

Bregman owns a .333 ISO and a .385 wOBA vs lefties this season.

Value:

Miguel Rojas

FanDuel: $2,300, DraftKings: $3,200

Outfield – Christian Yelich vs. Anthony DeSclafani

FanDuel: $4,900 DraftKings: $5,700

The reigning MVP has a .430 ISO and a .501 wOBA versus right-handed pitching. Look for Yelich to produce big on Sunday.

Outfield – Ronald Acuna vs. Joe Ross

FanDuel: $4,200 Draftkings: $4,800

Acuna has a .352 wOBA and a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2019.

Value:

Nomar Mazara

FanDuel: $3,200

Joc Pederson

FanDuel: $3,100

Eloy Jimenez

FanDuel: $3,100

Jake Cave

DraftKings: $2,900

Top Stacks

Texas Rangers:

When the temperatures are hot in Texas, you want to get Rangers’ bats in your DFS lineups. And today is no different, especially with the White Sox’s Ivan Nova on the bump. The Chicago’ right-hander has a 5.04 SIERA and a 4.73 xFIP this season. With Nova allowing a 43% hard contact rate in 2019, expect the Rangers to take advantage of the hot temps and put the heat on Chicago’s Nova.

Atlanta Braves:

The Braves’ offense comes in red hot. Over their last seven games, the Braves have pounded out 13 home runs. In that span, they have a .244 ISO and a .385 wOBA. The Nationals’ Joe Ross doesn’t seem likely to slow them down any today. The Washington starter has a 6.04 xFIP and a 5.02 SIERA this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Dodgers have crushed right-handed pitching all season. As an offense, Los Angeles has a .211 ISO and a .344 wOBA against righties. The Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela should be no match for the Dodgers. The Colorado pitcher is not missing any bats this season with a slate low 6.9% swinging strike rate. The Dodgers should put plenty of balls in play with success on Sunday.

Value Stacks

Chicago White Sox:

The Rangers’ Adrian Sampson is allowing a flyball 41.6% of the time. He also is allowing a 46.3% hard contact rate in 2019. Combine the flyballs, with hard contact and mix it into 90+ degree weather and that is a recipe for trouble. The White Sox should feast of this recipe and do it at a discount.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS MLB Batting Stacks for 6/18: Delays for Dough

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

What a mess weatherwise last night. And the overall pattern is the same this evening. Now we add PIT into the mix as well! So pay close attention to the weather in NYY, WSH (oh my gosh no!!!), ATL, CIN and PIT.

CLE/TEX: I’m going to group these two teams together because weatherwise/park factor-wise this is by far the best place for hitters tonight. Even though the weather really has not heated up yet, in 2019 Globe Life Park is a slightly favorable park for both runs and HRs. Last season, Globe Life was the overall best park for runs scored (just edging out Coors) and the third best park for HRs (according to ESPN’s park factors page that can be found here). Neither starter has been bad (Zach Plesac for Cleveland and Adrian Sampson for Texas) but neither has pitched in 90 degree heat and nearly a 70 degree dewpoint either yet this year. Add in the fact that TEX has a bad bullpen (4.66 ERA) and we could be looking at some fireworks. Note: CLE has the best bullpen in terms of ERA (3.25) in all of MLB. Bats like Francisco Lindor ($3,900 FD) and Carlos Santana ($3,900) are expensive but could be worth paying up for on the CLE side, while less expensive bats like Jason Kipnis ($2,500) and Jake Bauers ($2,800) give you potential pop at a savings. On the other side, Rougned Odor ($2,900) is extremely affordable while Shin-soo Chin ($3,600) and Elvis Andrus ($3,800) are more expensive options but could be worth it.
Games with a potential rain delay: This includes games in NYY, PIT, WSH, CIN and ATL. You will have to be on top of your game here. Look for any game(s) that is delayed to start AND one whose delay is announced late. The theory here is that the delayed start messes with the starting pitcher’s routine/mindset and when they do start the game, he could be bothered and ineffective. More difficult to predict are games with a lengthy in-game rain delay early. This raises the risk of the starter not coming back out (we saw short-lived rain delays in CIN and ATL last night where the starters did come back out and did fine) and asking the bullpen to go more innings than expected. Besides the closer and the seventh and eighth inning guys, the bullpen is full of pitchers who can not cut it as a starter, ie. they aren’t that good. This is especially true for small-market teams (PIT and CIN) and not NYY (where seemingly their whole bullpen is made up of ex-closers).
Brewers: Milwaukee’s deep and talented roster has the potential to go off at any time. Combining for only four hits off Joey Lucchesi and two relievers and being on the road for one of the last scheduled games timewise on the slate, you may never get lower ownership rates for the Brew Crew than tonight. And they get a young lefty starter named Logan Allen, who is making his first Major League appearance. DFS’ers, especially casual players, pay too much attention to two factors: how a player or team did recently and staying away from lefty on lefty matchups. Take advantage of these factors and do not be scared to fire up Christian Yelich ($4,800) and Mike Moustakas ($3,900). They may only get 1-2 ABs on the weak side of the platoon before they get into the generally soft Padres bullpen (4.77 ERA, 22nd in MLB).

5 years ago 0 comments

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Christian Yelich

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($10,400)

Best GPP Value: Freddy Peralta ($9,900)

Contrarian GPP Play: Patrick Sandoval ($7,700)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. CIN RHP Vladimir Gutierrez

Contrarian Stack #1: Houston Astros vs. NYY RHP Gerrit Cole

Contrarian Stack #2: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. ARI LHP Caleb Smith

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($12,000)

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

Contrarian GPP Play: Jameson Taillon ($6,200)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. MIA RHP Zach Thompson

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. PIT RHP Chad Kuhl

Contrarian Stack: Oakland A’s vs. KC RHP Jackson Kowar

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,900)

Best Value: Dane Dunning ($8,000)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (RHP Chris Flexen)

Value/Contrarian Stack: Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (Jose Quintana)

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Trevor Cahill)

7/27 MLB DFS – C Wilson Ramos (DK $3,800) NYM @ BOS

7/27 MLB DFS – 1B C.J. Cron (DK $3,300) DET vs. KC

7/27 MLB DFS – 2B Nico Hoerner (DK $3,400) CHC @ CIN

7/27 MLB DFS – SS Alex Bregman (DK $5,100) HOU vs. SEA

7/26 MLB DFS – OF Lorenzo Cain (DK $3,700) MIL at PIT

7/26 MLB DFS – C Robinson Chirinos (DK $3,900) TEX vs. COL

7/26 MLB DFS – 1B Joey Votto (DK $3,800) CIN vs. DET

7/26 MLB DFS – SS Alex Bregman (DK $4,900) HOU vs. SEA

7/26 MLB DFS – 3B Mike Moustakas (DK $4,000) CIN vs. DET

7/26 MLB DFS – OF Christian Yelich (DK $5,600) MIL at CHC

8/6 MLB DFS Catcher

8/6 MLB DFS First Base

8/6 MLB DFS Second Base

8/6 MLB DFS Shortstop

8/6 MLB DFS Third Base

8/6 MLB DFS Outfielders

New York Yankees

vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 7.10 Runs

Los Angeles Angels

vs. RHP Mike Leake (SEA): 5.60 Runs

Milwaukee Brewers

vs. RHP Shaun Anderson (SFG): 5.60 Runs

Honorable DFS Stacks Mentions

San Diego Padres vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel (ATL): 4.30 Runs

Oakland A’s vs. RHP Ivan Nova (CHW): 5.60 Runs

St. Louis Cardinals vs. LHP Robbie Ray (ARZ): 4.50 Runs

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