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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 14 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 14 NFL DFS MVP ca...

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We have made ladies and gentlemen! We are officially into week three and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. I had to push back release of this article but for good reason. Last night NFL Game Pass, after months of missed deadlines, finally released coaches film. For those who are new this year I am a huge proponent of using the coaches film to spot situational advantages based on formations and the normal game replays do not show the full field of view. So in addition to the bigger named guys I will now have a complete dart throw on two that I will add for you folks who still play in 150 entry contests. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26.

Chalk Report: According to aggregate data the following players are likely to be the highest owned for the main slate. See StixPicks Cash Article for who he recommends:

QB: Spread out (no QB over 9%)

RB: Dalvin Cook 17%, Saquon Barkley 14%, Joe Mixon 14%, Derrick Henry 13%, D’Andre Swift 13%

WR: Cooper Kupp 22%, Chris Godwin 17%, KJ Osborn 14%, Robert Woods 13%, Tyler Boyd 12%

***Late Addition: Nick Chubb is under 5% projected ownership on DraftKings with no Landry and Beckham in his first game back. He has only been getting around a dozen carries a week thus far, but this week I think the Browns will need to lean on him and use Hunt split out as a receiver. If he gets 20 carries at any point in the early season, this is it.***

Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26

Johnathan Taylor, Colts, $6,700DK/$7,000FD: 5.5%

For some reason, folks are forgetting about Jonathan Taylor Sunday and we are all over it at Win Daily. The Titans managed to hold Chris Carson to just 2.4 yards per carry but they gave up 2 touchdowns to him and at closer inspection that low YPC was more of a function of bad run blocking on Seattle’s part and less about the Titans front. The Colts line, while a little nicked up, is miles better than anything Seattle put on the field last week. With Wentz playing on two bad ankles he is going to need to lean on Taylor to bail him out with the short passing game instead of scrambling himself and he is good for a minimum of 15 carries every week. Taylor has slate-breaking upside in a plus matchup and he is coming in at a silly sub 5% number as everyone is jumping on Henry and Saquon this week.

Javonte Williams, Broncos, $4,900DK/$5,800FD: 4.3%

See my running back article as I touched on Javonte in depth there. The rookie is supremely talented and he has been getting the bulk of his work after taking the lead which the Broncos are expected to have pretty early on as a 10.5 point favorite.

Rob Gronkowski, Bucs, $5,800DK/$6,500FD: 5.5%

I love how people are still not believing that the Gronk resurgence is real. It is real ladies and gentlemen. Rob took a year off, got his body healthy, and is living the good life in Florida with his best buddy catching touchdowns. Last year he led the team with Mike Evans with 21 red-zone targets. This year he leads the team through two weeks with 4 red-zone targets and has seen over 80% snap share in each game compared to the 70% range in most of the last season. The only thing that makes any sense to me is that either people are scared of going with two tight ends in their DFS lineups or they are going with guys like Kelce, Hockenson, and Waller who are all expected to have big days. With no Antonio Brown this week and Jalen Ramsey covering Mike Evans, Gronk should smash and don’t tell Bruce Arians, but he doesn’t need to study the playbook to do it.

Adam Thielen, Vikings, $6,700DK/$7,600FD: 5.8%

What if I told you that that you could find a receiver who is in the highest total game of the day, who is his teams leading fantasy producer, who is playing against a bad and banged up secondary, who also happens to have a questionable workhorse running back? Then what would you say if I told you that you could get him at sub 6% ownership? Allow me to reintroduce you to Adam Thielen. We were ready to write Adam off before the season, but the Irv Smith Injury caused a big void in that offense. While everyone is going towards KJ Osborn at only 3.5K on DraftKings, Thielen leads the team in targets and touchdowns and is still a very reasonable 6.7k. If the name was Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, or Cooper Kupp and we were looking at the same scenario we would be looking at triple the ownership and we would be happy to do it. Be sure to put him in a lineup or two because if he sees another 8+ targets against the Seahawks we are looking at a big day for Adam.

Sub-1% MME GPP Play

Do not overuse this play as it has some huge bust potential but based on some film study and projections this is a play that I see coming in at next to nothing in terms of ownership and has the opportunity the have a strong outing. This week we get a cheap one that will will not kill you and afford you a chance to pay up elsewhere.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns, $3,000DK/$5,500FD:

My final low owned week 3 DFS play is a gross one. Let me be clear. Is Peoples-Jones good? Resounding no. Are the Browns the type of team to air it out? Also no. But with Jarvis Landry injured is Odell Beckham going to come back in his first game back from significant injury and take all of the targets? Also no. DVP just happens to be the right guy for the right routes against the right team. The Bears typically run a version of the Tampa 2 with what is called a 3-4 over concept, and against the Bengals last week they were running a lot over Cover 1-man and disguising cover two with that look. If they run these concepts again, they will almost certainly cheat to protect the run game, leaving huge openings about 10 yards deep where the post routes and crossing routes develop. People-Jones runs three routes almost exclusively. Go routes (which are protected by the outside leverage), post routes, and crossing routes. What was the route he was running last week when he had the ball knocked out? Post route. There were also a handful of plays last week where he also came free but Baker was not looking at his side of the field and he rarely comes off of the field during run situations since he is a decent blocker. DO NOT GO OVERBOARD here. He could get a goose egg, but from what I saw last week and the formations that I am expecting if he gets 4 or 5 targets and takes a crossing route downfield for a score I am not going to be shocked in the least.

We have made it folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond, and that our Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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We have made ladies and gentlemen! We are officially into week two and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. If you have not had the opportunity yet Jason Mezrahi just dropped his article for his favorite tight ends so be sure to go check that out. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 2 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.19

Low ownership plays are all contextual so keep in mind that what may be considered “low owned” in a showdown slate or two-game slate will not be the same as a full Sunday slate. What I aim to do is find you a few nuggets at around 5 percent or under that can separate you from the field in your GPP tournaments. The larger the field or the more maximum entries (150 max vs single entry) the more ownership should weigh into your choices. We will come back to that in the following weeks so that you can get a look at what winners on those weeks went with.

Chalk Report: According to aggregate data the following players are likely to be the highest owned for the main slate. See StixPicks Cash Article for who he recommends:

QB: Justin Herbert (12.43%), Dak Prescott (11.52%), Josh Allen (11.34%), Jalen Hurts (9.5%), Kyler Murray (7.5%)

RB: Najee Harris (22.85%), Chris Carson (17.5%), Austin Ekeler (17.23%), Darrel Henderson (17.00%), Ezekiel Elliott (15.85%)

WR: Keenan Allen (18.54%), Cooper Kupp (17.87%), CeeDee Lamb (15.80%), Amari Cooper (14.92%), DeAndre Hopkins (12.50%)

Nick Chubb, Browns, ($7,800DK/$8,400FD) 7.1% OWN:

When I first looked at this slate I saw Chubb against the Texans and thought it would be chalk for sure but his ownership has stayed between 6-8%. While everyone gravitates towards the guys in my chalk report you are getting Chubb at the lowest ownership I think you will see on him all season against the worst run defense in the league. Do not be fooled by week one, Urban Meyer had no clue what he was doing and got down multiple scores before he realized his running backs were averaging 5 yards a carry. Chubb may only get 16 carries and two targets this week but it could legitimately be for 150+ yards and multiple touchdowns.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,900DK/$6,300FD) 4.3% Own

Last week I was big on Sanders and while he did not go off, nobody named Joe Mixon, Melvin Gordon, or Christian McCaffrey did. He did however finish with 17.5 DK points and was a Kenneth Gainwell vulture from having a huge day and ending up on the Milli-Maker winning lineup at only 4% ownership. We find ourselves in what is possibly an even better scenario. If the casual fantasy player sees the 49’ers as the opponent they may fade, but those of us who know that defensive ends Dee Ford and Arik Armstead, defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, defensive lineman Dee Greenlaw, and defensive back Emmanuel Mosley are all injured and most are expected to miss Sunday’s game. That leaves huge voids in the Niner’s defense. The run defense is especially vulnerable and even the Lions were able to shred San Fran with both running back on the ground and through the air with both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams catching 8 passes each and Williams averaging 6.0 yards per carry. The Niners are a top defense in name only this week and if Sanders sees 15 carries and 6-8, targets his ceiling is as high as any running back in the NFL this week.

Allen Robinson, Bears, ($6,200DK/$7,200FD) 5.3% OWN

Did everyone forget that A-Rob was battling Jalen Ramsey all last week? No, Andy Dalton is not the best QB in the world but since when did a bad quarterback stop Robinson from going off? It did not turn into production but Dalton still targeted him 11 times in week one and guess who he is playing? That’s right folks, Dalton has a revenge game narrative on Sunday and the Bengals just got shredded by Kirk freaking Cousins for 351 yards and 2 TDs. Yet even knowing these things Allen Robinson is projected anywhere between 5-6% ownership in a game that should stay competitive. That is silly and disrespectful to a guy who caught 102 passes for 1250 yards and 6 TD’s with Nick Foles, and Mitch Trubisky, throwing him the ball in 2020 and 98 for 1147 and 7 with Mitch and Chase Daniels in 2019. Plain silly.

Antonio Brown, Bucs, ($6,000DK/$6,400FD) 4.4% OWN

What does AB need to do to convince people the he is back to his old form? After catching five of seven target for 121 yards and a touchdown you would think a matchup against a Falcons team that was smashed by the Eagles would garner a little more attention but I’ll take advantage all the same. Dean Pees mentioned the secondary when he arrived to the Falcons saying that “they are young” but what he forgot to add was “they are bad”. If Pees decides to blitz his corners Sunday which he is apt to do, Brady is going to have both Brown and Evans with plus matchups or blown coverages all day.

Honorable mention: Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, Derrick Henry

We have made it folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond, and that our Week NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.19 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week one is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. If you have not had the opportunity yet our guy Rocker just dropped his article for his favorite wide receivers so be sure to go check that out. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 1 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.12

Low ownership plays are all contextual so keep in mind that what may be considered “low owned” in a showdown slate or two-game slate will not be the same as a full Sunday slate. What I aim to do is find you a few nuggets at around 5 percent or under that can separate you from the field in your GPP tournaments. The larger the field or the more maximum entries (150 max vs single entry) the more ownership should weigh into your choices. We will come back to that in the following weeks so that you can get a look at what winners on those weeks went with.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, ($8,800DK/$8,500FD) 4.77% Own

I will come back to this on Saturday night and verify but a sub-5% Hill is going to find his way into some of my lineups no matter who he plays against. I know the Browns are very strong defensively but when has that stopped KC? It is Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill week in and week out, rinse and repeat. In the playoffs, just last season Hill went 8-10 for 110 yards. What is significant about that is the Mahomes left that contest in the third quarter with a concussion after 30 pass attempts (season average was 40). KC is projected to score 30 points and Hill’s prop is 6.5 Rec for 80 yards (14.5DK) and is a -140 odds to score (lowest odds in the game). So 20.5 points at under 5%. Yeah, I am good with that.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own

If you have not read my week one running back article, I talked at great length about Sanders, against the Falcons, in a Sirianni-led run game. In week one, at least in my opinion, the ownership numbers are the toughest to nail down in week one so I went out and check numerous sources and the conclusion is the same. Sanders will be under three percent. Hoping this holds, as the upside he provides can help you take down a GPP.

James Robinson, Jaguars,($6,400DK/$5,900FD) 5.35% Own

I never thought that in week one that I would have my cash game lock in my low ownership plays. But if we are the only ones who are on him that is great. The Jags should be greatly improved offensively and they are playing the Houston Trash Cans Texans, the single worst running defense in the NFL. Full stop. Robinson should see close to 20 carries and 3-4 targets. Robinson has the best odds in the entire game to score at +100 with an O/U of 91.5 rushing/receiving yards and 2.5 receptions (18DK points). I do not understand this. He should be 20% in this scenario but I will take this error on the part of other DFS players and take the cash without thinking twice.

Ryan Tannehill, Titans, ($6,500DK/$7,700FD) 3.33% Own

The 3.3% ownership projection must be a result of AJ Brown missing practice leading up to the game day. While I think that is fair and worth keeping an eye on I also know that AJ Brown always misses mid-week practices leading up to game day. It has been a part of his maintenance for a couple of seasons (but this makes me question why Henry 8% but that is a different topic). Titans are favorites by 3 points, in a 53 point total game, against the fastest pace team in the league. Cardinals will blitz a ton but Ryan is a mobile QB who can avoid the rush and the Titans have used the play-action for two seasons to great effect. Oh yeah, and Tannehill has statistically been on par with Mahomes since he took over in Tennessee (a daily reminder) but for $1,600 on DraftKings.

Honorable mention: Justin Jefferson (6.28%), Terry McLaurin (5.71%), Robby Anderson (3.99%), Raheem Mostert (5.39%)

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and our Week 1 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week one is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. And check out Adam’s fantastic Game by Game breakdown for week 1. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12

I am going to put this at the top of my articles until the status quo changes. If you want to play Christian McCaffrey and can afford him, go for it. His floor/ceiling combination is unmatched from week to week. This just saves me a few minutes for every Running Back DFS Breakdown just stating the obvious.

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***

GPP:

Derrick Henry, Titans, ($8,800DK/$8,900FD) 8.12% Own:

While much of the attention will go to running backs like Dalvin Cook (17.64% Ownership), Christian McCaffrey (22.21% Ownership), and Alvin Kamara (24.12% Ownership) there is a certain rushing title winner who is projected under 8% ownership. While everyone is concerned with the coaching changes for the Titans and the little red 10 next to Arizona’s ranking we find a prime GPP pivot to take advantage of. The Cardinals are 10th worst in rushing 1st downs allowed (118), 7th worst in YPC (4.6), and 11th worst in 1st Down % (27.1). Now, throw in the 3rd fastest pace, aggressive blitz tendencies, and that the Cardinals spend more time in nickel packages than any other team (4-2-5 base, cover one) and we can begin to see how a beast like Henry can break this GPP slate wide open.

Raheem Mostert, 49ers, ($5,800DK/$6,100FD) 5.14% Own:

All I needed was to see him in the final preseason game for a few snaps just to make sure his knee was ok and I knew he would end up somewhere in my article in week one. The Lions are a mess and the Niners are one of the most prolific rushing franchises over the last several seasons. Trey Sermon is going to get plenty of work, that much is certain, but Mostert does not need 18-20 carries to smash value. Week one last season, Mostert, on 15 carries only had 56 yards rushing but caught four passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. The man is a Lamborghini. Sure, something will almost certainly happen that sidelines him at some point, but while he is healthy you should have him sprinkled into your GPP builds. Especially when they are expected to get ahead against weak run defenses.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own:

I do not know why his ownership is so low. Atlanta’s defensive personnel can not keep up with this dynamic playmaker, at least not yet. I think people remember the last couple of seasons where the previous coaching regime would rotate backs with no rhyme or reason. Take a breath folks, Nick Sirianni is coming from Indy and he does not share that thought process. Miles will get more reps this year in both carries and targets in 2021 if Sanders stays healthy this should be a career year in terms of volume and production. Dean Pees (ATL Defensive Coordinator) loves, loves, loves blitzing from the secondary, and if Hurts sees that, Miles Sanders can be wide open on those blitz packages and running to daylight. Trust me here folks. Get a couple of shares of him in your GPP’s this week and you will be glad that you did.

Also Consider: Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Chase Edmonds

Cash:

James Robinson, Jaguars, ($6,400DK/$5,900FD):

Pricing for both Draftkings and FanDuel came out around a month ago and even at that time I was eyeing Robinson as a potential GPP play. Etienne is a different kind of back and J-Rob, at least for week one, was always fairly safe. Texans are a disaster on both sides of the ball thanks to the Bill O’Brien era and my early script included a heavy dose of running the clock down into the second half. That has not changed since pricing came out, and now we have no Etienne to compete with for workload. Robinson averaged 17.8 carries and 4.3 targets per game in 2020. This year the Jags have a better O-Line, more WR depth, and their franchise QB who already looks like he belongs, so defenses can no longer cheat to stop the run game. Robinson should have a field day in week one with no real competition for touches and targets against arguably the worst franchise in the NFL.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings, ($9,100DK/$9,400FD)

If the Vikings do not get behind early there is one thing that you can be assured of. Dalvin Cook will carry the ball 20+ times and see anywhere from 3-5 Targets in the passing game. I think the Bengals will be improved this season but Burrow will likely be rusty in the early going and the offensive line will take some time to gel. That means stalled drives and a game script where Dal can feast. The Bengals year in and year out have a defense that gets holes ripped through it on the ground and in 2020 they were second worst, giving up 5.1 yards per carry for almost 2,400 yards (fourth-worst). With no Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph out of the picture, Cook’s already league-leading red zone rush attempts (68 attempts for 13 TD’s) will almost certainly increase and it will be immediate.

Antonio Gibson, Football Team, ($5,900DK/$7,000)

The Chargers traveling to the east coast is bad, playing that game at 1:00 PM EST/10:00 AM PST is even worse, and in my opinion not getting any of your starter’s reps in the preseason is a strike three. I fully expect the Chargers to play a flat game against last season’s DROY Chase Young and the rest of that tough Washington defense. Staley’s defensive scheme for LAC (at least up front) is to have three down linemen tight to the formation forcing the ball handler to go outside. That spells disaster as Antonio Gibson is incredibly quick outside of the tackles and was regularly used in off-tackle runs as well as screenplays in 2020. A quick note on Gibson, he played almost half of the season with a foot injury and he has already told us that he was 100% good now.

Also Consider: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our Win Daily Sports: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 11 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 11 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Kyler Murray (DK $19,500, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Russell Wilson (DK $17,700, FD $16,500)

Contrarian #1: DK Metcalf (DK $15,300, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #2: DeAndre Hopkins (DK $16,200, FD $13,500)

DK CPT Punt Options: Freddie Swain ($1,800) & Andy Isabella ($3,000)

There are some pricing discrepancies between FanDuel and DraftKings this week that we can take advantage of – in both cash games and tournaments – but the overriding theme this week will be squeezing in both QBs if we can. That’s a hard task, but I think that’s the best cash game strategy and a viable plan for GPPs.

The chalk on both sites is Kyler Murray, and a quick glance at his game logs tells us why he’s top dog emcee: he hasn’t scored fewer than 24.12 DK points in any game this season and he’s already racked up 2,375-17-8 passing and 604 rushing yards with 10 scores (!) on the ground. Only the Bengals offer a more favorable QB matchup than Seattle, which means he could have one of his highest game totals of the season.

Russell Wilson took a step back in Week 10 with just 12.92 DK points against the Rams, but his fantasy resume is just as impressive, with his previous lowest DK point total (24.9) coming in a Week 4 matchup against an upstart Miami defense that’s been mazing in 2020.

The biggest injury situations to monitor are in both backfields, but Arizona’s Chase Edmonds and Seattle’s Carlos Hyde (full practice participant on Tuesday) are my favorite RB options on both teams. If Chris Carson (foot) can go for the Seahawks that does complicate things a bit, but Hyde had a solid game vs. Arizona in Week 7, is absent an official injury designation heading into Thursday night and offers a pretty nice combination of blocking and receiving skills that will be needed in this game.

Carson’s availability won’t be determined until close to game time, but I’m fading him because foot injuries are easy to exacerbate, and we’ve got to take a stand somewhere. As for my dude Chase, I’m on him because I’m just not a huge fan of Kenyan Drake, regardless of if he’s 100 percent and even though he gets a pretty large snap share that often exceeds that of Edmonds. Drake’s one truly enormous game this season came against Dallas in Week 6 at the height of that team’s momentous misery.

Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (knee) is questionable but also expected to play, which slightly mars the option of punting the captain spot with super-cheap Freddie Swain for Seattle. Swain hauled in 3-37-0 on four targets last week and is an under-the-radar deep threat and high-leverage performer that Wilson looks for in the red zone. He’s definitely worth using in some GPPs, especially if Lockett is limited.  Anda Isabella is the Arizona analog to Swain – a speedburner who could break the slate with a long TD reception.

Top WR options DeAndre Hopkins (now of “Hail Murray” fame) and DK Metcalf are also worthy of using in any place they can fit, and don’t sleep on Christian Kirk, who is a worthy second fiddle on a Cards team filled with talent.

Kickers, defenses and TEs could make their way into my lineups, but only a smattering, and not in the captain spot.

Week 11 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Count on this to be low-scoring. The projected total sits at 57 and we could easily see this be a 37-31 type of game.

DO: Get plenty of both sides in this game. I just don’t see either team dominating to the point where a 5-to-1 build makes a lot of sense.

DON’T: Forget about the “other” Cards receivers, including Larry Fitzgerald. The NFL legend had 8-62-0 against the Seahawks in Week 7, his best output of the season thus far.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Kyler Murray
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. DK Metcalf
  4. DeAndre Hopkins
  5. Christian Kirk
  6. Carlos Hyde (if Chris Carson is inactive)
  7. Chase Edmonds
  8. Tyler Lockett (questionable)
  9. Kenyan Drake
  10. Larry Fitzgerald
  11. Andy Isabella
  12. Chris Carson (risk-reward)
  13. David Moore (higher if Lockett limited)
  14. Freddie Swain (risky GPP)
  15. Greg Olsen
  16. Jason Myers
  17. Dan Arnold
  18. Zane Gonzalez
  19. Cards DST
  20. Seahawks DST
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The NFL DFS season continues with the second of two Monday night showdowns, and we’ll help you win big money in the final Week 6 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Kyler Murray (DK $18,600, FD $16,500)

Pivot: DeAndre Hopkins (DK $16,800, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Ezekiel Elliott (DK $15,900, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #2: Andy Dalton (DK $14,400, FD $12,500)

The Cowboys are favored in this game – largely because most of the skill position weapons that helped Dak Prescott put up gaudy numbers for the first few weeks will be available to Andy Dalton as well. But just as the Cowboys have struggled with injuries to their offensive line and the season-ending injury to Prescott, the Cards defense will also be without one of their best players in Chandler Jones (torn biceps).

The Cowboys have had a difficult time stopping anyone, so the task of containing Kyler Murray will be nearly impossible – making the second-year star the likely chalk as showdown captain. He and DeAndre Hopkins should have a field day against the porous Dallas secondary, though I expect production from all the Cards WRs in this one.

One of the keys for Dallas will be establishing the running game, which should mean 20+ carries for Ezekiel Elliott. The elite Cowboys RB is still a dangerous weapon as both a rusher and receiver, and the Cards have struggled against opposing RBs, who are averaging 106.8 rushing yards and 50.8 receiving yards per game in 2020. Standout defensive backs Budda Baker and Patrick Peterson may limit the effectiveness of the Dallas WR corps a bit, but the Cards’ front seven will have a tough time with Zeke.

This should be a relatively high-scoring game, and if I had to pick a Cowboys WR to spend up on, it would be CeeDee Lamb. The rookie WR already has 29-433-2 on 40 targets through five games, and he seems to get better every week.

Week 6 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Focus too much on the defenses. There’s certainly pick-six leverage in this matchup, but both units are banged up and there’s just no reason to believe either defense can be dominant.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about Larry Fitzgerald. He saw seven targets last week and has yet to score a TD in 2020. This could be the week.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Kyler Murray
  2. DeAndre Hopkins
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. CeeDee Lamb
  5. Andy Dalton
  6. Christian Kirk
  7. Amari Cooper
  8. Dalton Schultz
  9. Kenyan Drake
  10.  Chase Edmonds
  11.  Larry Fitzgerald
  12.  Greg Zuerlein
  13.  Michael Gallup
  14.  Zane Gonzalez
  15.  Andy Isabella
  16.  Cedric Wilson
  17.  Cardinals DST
  18.  Cowboys DST
  19.  Tony Pollard
  20.  Darrell Daniels
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I’m excited to offer up some of my favorite Week 8 DFS plays for NFL RBs on the main slate, with cash, GPP and some contrarian plays to win you some green!

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Week 8 DFS Running Back – CashGame Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR at SF

DK ($9,200)   FD($9,600)

McCaffrey benefits from a week off and continued involvementin all aspects of the Carolina offense, and the absence of Cam Newton means he’llget most of the goal line carries as well. The top RB play in any format – evenagainst a tough 49ers run defense – McCaffrey should see 5-10 targets and score20+ fantasy points even if he doesn’t break out with a monster game.

Saquon Barkley, NYG at DET

DK ($8,900)   FD ($8,600)

Barkley checks in at 1B when it comes to fantasy upside forWeek 8. He was a full participant in Thursday’s practice at is coming off aWeek 7 return which saw him net 80 total yards against the Cards. This week, hefaces the second-worst fantasy defense vs. RBs and should have his ay with the Lionsin Detroit’s Ford Field.

Leonard Fournette, JAC at NYJ

DK ($7,800)   FD ($7,700)

If you want to save a little cash from the top plays I’drecommend landing on Fournette, who has at least 20 carries (29, 23, 20, 29) ineach of his last four games and regular scores 15-30 fantasy points. Bolsteredby his contributions to the passing game and a great matchup against the Jets,Fournette’s fantasy upside may exceed both Barkley and McCaffrey in Week 8.

Week 8 DFS Running Back – GPPPlays

Todd Gurley, LAR vs. CIN

DK ($7,400)   FD ($7,400)

Todd Gurley played just 46-of-75 snaps (60.5%) in the Week7 win over the Falcons, so he’s a considerable risk if he keeps such a low workload.But there’s plenty of upside for the Rams lead back against a Bengals team that’sworst in the league versus fantasy RBs. Malcolm Brown has already been ruledout, so I’ll have plenty of exposure to Gurley with some shares of rookierunning back Darrell Henderson as the complementary option.

Chris Carson, SEA at ATL

DK ($7,000)   FD ($8,000)

After three straight 100-yard rushing performances, Carsonwas held in check against a tough Ravens’ defense, but he’s a good bet for asolid bounce-back game facing the Falcons. Don’t overthink this. You’ll be gladyou played him in GPPs as part of your core builds. He’s viable for cash gameson DK and is a better GPP play on FD where his price is a bit elevated.

Chase Edmonds, ARI at NO

DK ($6,200)   FD ($6,100)

David Johnson is a game-time decision, but we’re to going tolet that cloud our decision to play Edmonds. Johnson was active vs. the Giantsbut saw just one carry. Edmonds has at least 14 DK points in three games in arow, and although this is a tougher road matchup, he’s on my radar.

Marlon Mack, IND vs. DEN

DK ($6,100)   FD ($6,800)

Mack had trouble getting into open space against the Texans,but the passing game was really clicking, so they didn’t need his normal groundand pound approach. He rushed 18 times for 44 yards and caught all three of histargets for 12 more in the Week 7 win and has a better matchup at home vs. theBroncos. I’m not expecting huge ownership levels which makes him a good buy forGPPs.

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. TB

DK ($6,000)   FD ($6900)

A usually efficient runner with plenty of upside, Henry didn’t get loose against the Chargers last week but did tally at least 20 carries for the third time in his last four games. With the Titans offense looking better with Ryan Tannehill under center, I’m counting on fewer eight-in-the-box looks against this offense and more of Henry’s emblematic “jailbreak” TD runs against TB.

Also consider: Phillip Lindsay, Tevin Coleman, James White (DK)

Week 8 DFS Running Back – ContrarianGPP Plays

Austin Ekeler, LAC at CHI

DK ($5,900)   FD ($6,800)

If this ends up being a negative script game, we could see theChargers using a lot more of Ekeler in space, run or pass, than Gordon. He’shad just one dud so far this season, which was Week 6 against Pittsburgh when everythingwent out the window very early in the Chargers’ game plan. He has two games inhis past three outings with at least seven catches, so I have more interest inDK with the full point PPR, especially with the Bears are among the leagueleaders in receptions allowed to running backs this year with 45.

Nick Chubb, CLE at NE

DK ($6,600)   FD ($7,700)

Nick Chubb gets the Patriots this week, who have allowedzero touchdowns to running backs thus far, and very few RBs are even worthstarting in New England. But Chubb is a special back, could get a few catches,and he’ll have very low ownership. I think he might be worth a look inlarge-field GPPs as a contrarian play.

Also consider: Le’Veon Bell, Latavius Murray (if Kamara isout), Joe Mixon

Week 8 DFS Running Back – Value/PuntPlays

Royce Freeman, DEN at IND

DK ($5,500)   FD ($5,700)

Freeman is becoming a decent DFs option, especially on DK.He has at least 12 PPR points in each of his past two games against Tennesseeand Kansas City, and he has at least four catches in five of his past sixoutings. 

Sony Michel, NE vs. CLE

DK ($5,200)   FD ($6,500)

Michel is always risky, especially in PPR, since a lot of thepasses head to WRs and James White.  IfRex Burkhead (foot) plays this week, that makes the decision even tougher. ButMichel’s getting more work in this offense and has now scored a touchdown infour of his past six games. He’s also facing a putrid Browns defense this weekthat allows the third-most rushing yards per game at 154.

Ty Johnson, DET vs. NYG

DK ($4,900)   FD ($5,200)

Ty Johnson should get most of the touches now that KerryonJohnson is on the IR. He’ll share some of the passing game work with J.D.McKissic, who makes sense as a dart-throw punt in large-field GPPs as well, butwe much prefer TYJ facing a Giants defense that has allowed eight running backsto either score or gain at least 100 total yards this season.

David Montgomery, CHI vs. LAC

DK ($4,400)   FD ($5,700)

Montgomery has been an overwhelming bust in 2019, includingthe past two games against Oakland and New Orleans when he rushed for acombined 31 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, adding 3-24-0. If he can getinto an offensive groove and find his feet a bit against the Chargers (a team thatstruggles to stop the run), we could see a breakout.

Additional plays: Tarik Cohen, Devin Singletary, LeSean McCoy

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Week

Touchdown Dance — Pick the Players that will get the most Total TDs

Goal: 2.50, Prize: 2x

I’m going Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette and Chris Carson and taking the lock at 2x, but I feel like two of these guys are going to get two TDs each, so the 20x bet is awful tempting.

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A flash back at some of the best performances from the Sunday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 10/21 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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10/21 DFS Winner – Win Daily’s David Jones wins second 2019 NFL Showdown tournament

If you thought your fantasy team had a good day, take a look at our very own David Jones, who has been winning regularly in DFS for the last two-plus months. For the second time this season, he finished first in a Sunday Night Showdown tournament, last pulling off the trick in Week 3. David, maybe the hottest DFS Pro in the industry right now, took down the NFL Primetime Showdown and netted himself a little under $3,800. David has won over $200,000 since mid-August and is frequently in our Slack channel, which is available to all Premium members. You can also check out his GPP picks every week and watch him on our Sunday Live Stream on Gamedays from 10 to 1130 a.m. ET.

10/21 DFS Winner – Win Daily’s Javier Prellezo

Our newest DFS Pro, Javier Prellezo, had a big day on FanDuel, placing Top 15 in three contests and winning $20,000. Javier has been winning regularly since coming aboard, as he also landed an NHL Live Final ticket last week and cashed out over $6,500 on an MLB Showdown slate in the NLCS. Javier had three different lineups place in the winning mix on FD as he readies for NBA this week. A multi-sport DFS star, you can chat with him regularly in our Premium Gold Slack Chat in addition to reading his regular articles and listening to his advice on our podcasts.

10/21 Betting Winner: N.Y, Prop Exchange from Win Daily

Our N.Y. Prop Exchange, aka MLB Moving Averages, was hitting big on Prop Plays on the site and in Slack. You can get access to John L.’s regularly winning Prop Plays as a Premium Gold subscriber via his articles or in Slack. John’s Latavius Murray call was particularly daring.

10/21 Betting Winner – Cash with the Flash

Our Cash with the Flash appeared on the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Win Daily show and made multiple winning predictions for NFL Sunday. Read more here.

10/21 DFS Winner: San Francisco Defense

Both guys chose the San Francisco 49ers as their top defensive team in the NFL on the Cheatsheet. The 49ers had a shutout and gave up just 154 total yards against the Washington Redskins. Defensive tackle Julian Taylor recovered an Adrian Peterson fumble.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The 49ers defense is on another level through six games as they have the best passing and total defense in the NFL. The unit is a huge reason why the 49ers are now 6-0 and don’t need their offense to do much in order to pick up wins. This was their first shutout of the year and probably won’t be their last. Expect the defense to continue dominating as they face lesser-tier offenses in the next few weeks.

10/21 DFS Winner: Chase Edmonds

Chase Edmonds had a huge day on the ground yesterday afternoon against the New York Giants. He finished with 27 carries for 126 yards and three touchdowns. In addition he had a pair of catches for 24 yards. With David Johnson injured, expect a lot of carries for Edmonds and some similar production.

Outlook for the rest of the season: With Johnson down, this was Edmonds’ first game with double-digit carries. He almost matched his season total in yards against a subpar Giants defense. Expect the Cardinals to give Edmonds a lot of touches going forward if David Johnson continues to battle an ankle problem. He should be a change of pace back otherwise.

10/21 DFS Winner: Marvin Jones Jr.

Here is a screenshot from NFL’s Next Gen Stats page of Marvin Jones Jr against the Minnesota Vikings yesterday. He finished with 10 receptions for 93 yards and four touchdowns. This was definitely a breakout performance for Jones, who hasn’t been getting many yards this season thus far.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Lions need to target Jones more as the 10 receptions almost matched his last four games (11 catches). This also was his second-highest yardage game of the season. Expect Jones to get more action as the season progresses.

Scott Engel contributed to this story.

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This week is teeming with game-time decisions and some tough calls. In the Final Injury Report I’ll give you more context about these players’ injuries to guide your lineup construction.

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David Johnson

DJ is expected to play per reports, but as I mentioned earlier this week, I don’t know how much I trust him this week. The Cardinals are proving to be a difficult team to peg with their injuries as it only recently came out that Christian Kirk has been dealing with a high ankle sprain. Granted if that was the case Johnson would not be active at all, but I don’t have much faith in him for cash games considering All Second Team running back Chase Edmonds took the first team snaps most of the week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison

Next up on the Final Injury Report are a couple of teammates. These guys’ availability is going to be the X factor for the Packers’ passing game today. Allison will undergo concussion protocol testing this morning again and has a chance to play. If he is active, he should not be limited whatsoever and from a volume perspective isn’t a bad choice at $4,900 on Draft Kings. On the other hand, if MVS is declared active, there’s no way I put him into any lineups considering he has both an ankle and knee injury he’s dealing with. Not to mention MVS is $5,200 on Draft Kings. I’m passing on him this week.

Marquise Brown

I’m fading Brown as a mid-afternoon kickoff will give us no further clarity at this point. He missed all of last week and this week’s practice, so I don’t expect Brown to play today. At this point, I’m beginning to wonder if he is suffering from the dreaded high ankle.

Delanie Walker

Walker’s practice participation went in reverse on Friday after being limited all week. He is currently hampered by an ankle injury and I can’t help but think that at 35 the massive reconstruction is beginning to effect him. I’m fading Walker today in cash, but not tournaments as there’s a good chance he will serve as the primary safety valve for starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. At $3,800 on Draft Kings I would be more than willing to use Walker. Check back with me on Twitter to ensure he is active.

Thank you for reading the DFS Final Injury Report. Good luck today!

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

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