Chase Edmonds

We have made ladies and gentlemen! We are officially into week three and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. I had to push back release of this article but for good reason. Last night NFL Game Pass, after months of missed deadlines, finally released coaches film. For those who are new this year I am a huge proponent of using the coaches film to spot situational advantages based on formations and the normal game replays do not show the full field of view. So in addition to the bigger named guys I will now have a complete dart throw on two that I will add for you folks who still play in 150 entry contests. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26.

Chalk Report: According to aggregate data the following players are likely to be the highest owned for the main slate. See StixPicks Cash Article for who he recommends:

QB: Spread out (no QB over 9%)

RB: Dalvin Cook 17%, Saquon Barkley 14%, Joe Mixon 14%, Derrick Henry 13%, D’Andre Swift 13%

WR: Cooper Kupp 22%, Chris Godwin 17%, KJ Osborn 14%, Robert Woods 13%, Tyler Boyd 12%

***Late Addition: Nick Chubb is under 5% projected ownership on DraftKings with no Landry and Beckham in his first game back. He has only been getting around a dozen carries a week thus far, but this week I think the Browns will need to lean on him and use Hunt split out as a receiver. If he gets 20 carries at any point in the early season, this is it.***

Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26

Johnathan Taylor, Colts, $6,700DK/$7,000FD: 5.5%

For some reason, folks are forgetting about Jonathan Taylor Sunday and we are all over it at Win Daily. The Titans managed to hold Chris Carson to just 2.4 yards per carry but they gave up 2 touchdowns to him and at closer inspection that low YPC was more of a function of bad run blocking on Seattle’s part and less about the Titans front. The Colts line, while a little nicked up, is miles better than anything Seattle put on the field last week. With Wentz playing on two bad ankles he is going to need to lean on Taylor to bail him out with the short passing game instead of scrambling himself and he is good for a minimum of 15 carries every week. Taylor has slate-breaking upside in a plus matchup and he is coming in at a silly sub 5% number as everyone is jumping on Henry and Saquon this week.

Javonte Williams, Broncos, $4,900DK/$5,800FD: 4.3%

See my running back article as I touched on Javonte in depth there. The rookie is supremely talented and he has been getting the bulk of his work after taking the lead which the Broncos are expected to have pretty early on as a 10.5 point favorite.

Rob Gronkowski, Bucs, $5,800DK/$6,500FD: 5.5%

I love how people are still not believing that the Gronk resurgence is real. It is real ladies and gentlemen. Rob took a year off, got his body healthy, and is living the good life in Florida with his best buddy catching touchdowns. Last year he led the team with Mike Evans with 21 red-zone targets. This year he leads the team through two weeks with 4 red-zone targets and has seen over 80% snap share in each game compared to the 70% range in most of the last season. The only thing that makes any sense to me is that either people are scared of going with two tight ends in their DFS lineups or they are going with guys like Kelce, Hockenson, and Waller who are all expected to have big days. With no Antonio Brown this week and Jalen Ramsey covering Mike Evans, Gronk should smash and don’t tell Bruce Arians, but he doesn’t need to study the playbook to do it.

Adam Thielen, Vikings, $6,700DK/$7,600FD: 5.8%

What if I told you that that you could find a receiver who is in the highest total game of the day, who is his teams leading fantasy producer, who is playing against a bad and banged up secondary, who also happens to have a questionable workhorse running back? Then what would you say if I told you that you could get him at sub 6% ownership? Allow me to reintroduce you to Adam Thielen. We were ready to write Adam off before the season, but the Irv Smith Injury caused a big void in that offense. While everyone is going towards KJ Osborn at only 3.5K on DraftKings, Thielen leads the team in targets and touchdowns and is still a very reasonable 6.7k. If the name was Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, or Cooper Kupp and we were looking at the same scenario we would be looking at triple the ownership and we would be happy to do it. Be sure to put him in a lineup or two because if he sees another 8+ targets against the Seahawks we are looking at a big day for Adam.

Sub-1% MME GPP Play

Do not overuse this play as it has some huge bust potential but based on some film study and projections this is a play that I see coming in at next to nothing in terms of ownership and has the opportunity the have a strong outing. This week we get a cheap one that will will not kill you and afford you a chance to pay up elsewhere.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns, $3,000DK/$5,500FD:

My final low owned week 3 DFS play is a gross one. Let me be clear. Is Peoples-Jones good? Resounding no. Are the Browns the type of team to air it out? Also no. But with Jarvis Landry injured is Odell Beckham going to come back in his first game back from significant injury and take all of the targets? Also no. DVP just happens to be the right guy for the right routes against the right team. The Bears typically run a version of the Tampa 2 with what is called a 3-4 over concept, and against the Bengals last week they were running a lot over Cover 1-man and disguising cover two with that look. If they run these concepts again, they will almost certainly cheat to protect the run game, leaving huge openings about 10 yards deep where the post routes and crossing routes develop. People-Jones runs three routes almost exclusively. Go routes (which are protected by the outside leverage), post routes, and crossing routes. What was the route he was running last week when he had the ball knocked out? Post route. There were also a handful of plays last week where he also came free but Baker was not looking at his side of the field and he rarely comes off of the field during run situations since he is a decent blocker. DO NOT GO OVERBOARD here. He could get a goose egg, but from what I saw last week and the formations that I am expecting if he gets 4 or 5 targets and takes a crossing route downfield for a score I am not going to be shocked in the least.

We have made it folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond, and that our Week 3 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.26 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

We have made ladies and gentlemen! We are officially into week two and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. If you have not had the opportunity yet Jason Mezrahi just dropped his article for his favorite tight ends so be sure to go check that out. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 2 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.19

Low ownership plays are all contextual so keep in mind that what may be considered “low owned” in a showdown slate or two-game slate will not be the same as a full Sunday slate. What I aim to do is find you a few nuggets at around 5 percent or under that can separate you from the field in your GPP tournaments. The larger the field or the more maximum entries (150 max vs single entry) the more ownership should weigh into your choices. We will come back to that in the following weeks so that you can get a look at what winners on those weeks went with.

Chalk Report: According to aggregate data the following players are likely to be the highest owned for the main slate. See StixPicks Cash Article for who he recommends:

QB: Justin Herbert (12.43%), Dak Prescott (11.52%), Josh Allen (11.34%), Jalen Hurts (9.5%), Kyler Murray (7.5%)

RB: Najee Harris (22.85%), Chris Carson (17.5%), Austin Ekeler (17.23%), Darrel Henderson (17.00%), Ezekiel Elliott (15.85%)

WR: Keenan Allen (18.54%), Cooper Kupp (17.87%), CeeDee Lamb (15.80%), Amari Cooper (14.92%), DeAndre Hopkins (12.50%)

Nick Chubb, Browns, ($7,800DK/$8,400FD) 7.1% OWN:

When I first looked at this slate I saw Chubb against the Texans and thought it would be chalk for sure but his ownership has stayed between 6-8%. While everyone gravitates towards the guys in my chalk report you are getting Chubb at the lowest ownership I think you will see on him all season against the worst run defense in the league. Do not be fooled by week one, Urban Meyer had no clue what he was doing and got down multiple scores before he realized his running backs were averaging 5 yards a carry. Chubb may only get 16 carries and two targets this week but it could legitimately be for 150+ yards and multiple touchdowns.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,900DK/$6,300FD) 4.3% Own

Last week I was big on Sanders and while he did not go off, nobody named Joe Mixon, Melvin Gordon, or Christian McCaffrey did. He did however finish with 17.5 DK points and was a Kenneth Gainwell vulture from having a huge day and ending up on the Milli-Maker winning lineup at only 4% ownership. We find ourselves in what is possibly an even better scenario. If the casual fantasy player sees the 49’ers as the opponent they may fade, but those of us who know that defensive ends Dee Ford and Arik Armstead, defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw, defensive lineman Dee Greenlaw, and defensive back Emmanuel Mosley are all injured and most are expected to miss Sunday’s game. That leaves huge voids in the Niner’s defense. The run defense is especially vulnerable and even the Lions were able to shred San Fran with both running back on the ground and through the air with both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams catching 8 passes each and Williams averaging 6.0 yards per carry. The Niners are a top defense in name only this week and if Sanders sees 15 carries and 6-8, targets his ceiling is as high as any running back in the NFL this week.

Allen Robinson, Bears, ($6,200DK/$7,200FD) 5.3% OWN

Did everyone forget that A-Rob was battling Jalen Ramsey all last week? No, Andy Dalton is not the best QB in the world but since when did a bad quarterback stop Robinson from going off? It did not turn into production but Dalton still targeted him 11 times in week one and guess who he is playing? That’s right folks, Dalton has a revenge game narrative on Sunday and the Bengals just got shredded by Kirk freaking Cousins for 351 yards and 2 TDs. Yet even knowing these things Allen Robinson is projected anywhere between 5-6% ownership in a game that should stay competitive. That is silly and disrespectful to a guy who caught 102 passes for 1250 yards and 6 TD’s with Nick Foles, and Mitch Trubisky, throwing him the ball in 2020 and 98 for 1147 and 7 with Mitch and Chase Daniels in 2019. Plain silly.

Antonio Brown, Bucs, ($6,000DK/$6,400FD) 4.4% OWN

What does AB need to do to convince people the he is back to his old form? After catching five of seven target for 121 yards and a touchdown you would think a matchup against a Falcons team that was smashed by the Eagles would garner a little more attention but I’ll take advantage all the same. Dean Pees mentioned the secondary when he arrived to the Falcons saying that “they are young” but what he forgot to add was “they are bad”. If Pees decides to blitz his corners Sunday which he is apt to do, Brady is going to have both Brown and Evans with plus matchups or blown coverages all day.

Honorable mention: Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams, Derrick Henry

We have made it folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond, and that our Week NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.19 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week one is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. If you have not had the opportunity yet our guy Rocker just dropped his article for his favorite wide receivers so be sure to go check that out. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 1 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.12

Low ownership plays are all contextual so keep in mind that what may be considered “low owned” in a showdown slate or two-game slate will not be the same as a full Sunday slate. What I aim to do is find you a few nuggets at around 5 percent or under that can separate you from the field in your GPP tournaments. The larger the field or the more maximum entries (150 max vs single entry) the more ownership should weigh into your choices. We will come back to that in the following weeks so that you can get a look at what winners on those weeks went with.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, ($8,800DK/$8,500FD) 4.77% Own

I will come back to this on Saturday night and verify but a sub-5% Hill is going to find his way into some of my lineups no matter who he plays against. I know the Browns are very strong defensively but when has that stopped KC? It is Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill week in and week out, rinse and repeat. In the playoffs, just last season Hill went 8-10 for 110 yards. What is significant about that is the Mahomes left that contest in the third quarter with a concussion after 30 pass attempts (season average was 40). KC is projected to score 30 points and Hill’s prop is 6.5 Rec for 80 yards (14.5DK) and is a -140 odds to score (lowest odds in the game). So 20.5 points at under 5%. Yeah, I am good with that.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own

If you have not read my week one running back article, I talked at great length about Sanders, against the Falcons, in a Sirianni-led run game. In week one, at least in my opinion, the ownership numbers are the toughest to nail down in week one so I went out and check numerous sources and the conclusion is the same. Sanders will be under three percent. Hoping this holds, as the upside he provides can help you take down a GPP.

James Robinson, Jaguars,($6,400DK/$5,900FD) 5.35% Own

I never thought that in week one that I would have my cash game lock in my low ownership plays. But if we are the only ones who are on him that is great. The Jags should be greatly improved offensively and they are playing the Houston Trash Cans Texans, the single worst running defense in the NFL. Full stop. Robinson should see close to 20 carries and 3-4 targets. Robinson has the best odds in the entire game to score at +100 with an O/U of 91.5 rushing/receiving yards and 2.5 receptions (18DK points). I do not understand this. He should be 20% in this scenario but I will take this error on the part of other DFS players and take the cash without thinking twice.

Ryan Tannehill, Titans, ($6,500DK/$7,700FD) 3.33% Own

The 3.3% ownership projection must be a result of AJ Brown missing practice leading up to the game day. While I think that is fair and worth keeping an eye on I also know that AJ Brown always misses mid-week practices leading up to game day. It has been a part of his maintenance for a couple of seasons (but this makes me question why Henry 8% but that is a different topic). Titans are favorites by 3 points, in a 53 point total game, against the fastest pace team in the league. Cardinals will blitz a ton but Ryan is a mobile QB who can avoid the rush and the Titans have used the play-action for two seasons to great effect. Oh yeah, and Tannehill has statistically been on par with Mahomes since he took over in Tennessee (a daily reminder) but for $1,600 on DraftKings.

Honorable mention: Justin Jefferson (6.28%), Terry McLaurin (5.71%), Robby Anderson (3.99%), Raheem Mostert (5.39%)

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and our Week 1 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!