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Blake Snell

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday– 09/07

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 12 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. Let’s dig in to today’s slates!MLB DFS: The AcesBlake Snell (...

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 08/31

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. Let’s dig in to today’s slate...

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: April 2, 2021

Jared Levitt 3 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to round 2 of the 2021 MLB season. I’m Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian today. Some pretty big shoes to fill! My goal today will be to provide you with enough information to make solid choices. I won’t necessarily provide you the most popular plays, but the plays that will hopefully differentiate your lineups from the rest of the field and provide you enough success to get a solid ROI. Let’s breakdown some MLB DFS!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

We have an unusually small slate for a Friday with only 6 games on the main slate. This is what happens when Opening Day is on a Thursday. There’s an earlier matchup between the Red Sox and O’s but the focus of my write-up will be the Main Slate on Draftkings. Tonight we have 2 aces making their debuts with their new teams; Trevor Bauer ($10.5k) and Blake Snell ($9.7k). We have the Dodgers playing in Coors against a pitcher that struggled mightily in 2020, with an implied total (7.3) to show for it. We have Wilmer Flores ($3.7k) against a lefty. And finally, we have a game between 2 teams that combined for 1 run yesterday

Now that we have that out of the way, let’s dig in to today’s slate.

MLB DFS Picks – Pitchers

Today we have 2 aces going in Bauer and Snell, both making their debuts for their new teams. I have a hard time paying $10.5k for Bauer today with him pitching in Coors Field. As a petty Mets fan, I hope he gets shelled today.

My SP1 today will be Snell. You’re getting an $800 savings from Bauer and he’s also pitching in a much more pitcher-friendly environment. Although you wouldn’t know it if you looked at the box score from beautiful San Diego yesterday. In a Covid shortened season last year, Snell k’d more than 11 per 9 and had a 15% swinging-strike rate. One of the things I love about Snell is his ability to get batters to chase pitches out of the zone. Last season he had a chase rate of over 35%. Although Arizona managed to knock out Darvish early yesterday, I think they’ll be over-matched today against Snell. I’m locking him in as my SP1.

Where we see more options today is with your SP2. My first lean will be Pablo Lopez ($7k). The Rays are at an automatic disadvantage as they lose the DH. The Rays will probably trot out 4 lefties, but 3 of the 4 have K rates over 20% against righties. Lopez last season k’d more than 9 per 9. Last season he was also able to limit hard contact with a hard hit rate of less than 29%. Finally, he had a ground ball rate of 28.6% which will certainly help limit any damage the Rays can do.

My other lean for SP2 tonight is Jesus Luzardo ($7.9k). The Astros are a tough lineup so this will be no easy task, but Luzardo is one of the more talented pitchers going tonight and Houston losing Springer helps as well. Last night’s game was much closer than the final score shows. The A’s bullpen gave up a ton of late-inning damage. In his young career, Luzardo has been able to k both righties and lefties at a rate of greater than 24%. Like Lopez, Luzardo has the ability to keep the ball on the ground, with a 45% ground ball rate in 2020.

My locks today will be Snell and Lopez.

MLB DFS Picks – Top Stacks

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. The Dodgers will be a popular place to go tonight. They’re facing off against Antonio Senzatela who was just not very good last year. He pitched to a 4.81 xFIP, gave up a ton of hard contact (35.4%), and didn’t miss many bats (8.1% swinging strike %). The stars are aligned for the Dodgers to put up a very crooked number.

My favorite stack tonight is the White Sox. They’re facing off against Andrew Heaney who pitched to a 4.15 xFIP last year. Heaney also gave up a ton of hard contact with a hard-hit rate of nearly 37%. I’m going to focus on 1-3. Tim Anderson ($5.5k), Luis Robert ($5.3k), and Jose Abreu ($5.8k). It’s an expensive stack, but a very high ceiling stack. Anderson has a .388 wOBA against lefties and Abreu has a .404. The White Sox has an implied total of only 4.09. I think they crush that number today.

My final recommendation of the day is the Mariners. With this lineup, I may choose to just pluck a few random batters as they are dirt cheap. They’re facing off against Johnny Cueto who is about 5 years past his prime. Cueto struggled last year. He pitched to a 4.78 xFIP. He barely misses any bats anymore as seen by his 8.3% swinging strike last year. Seattle has some cheap bats in the meat of their lineup that will help you pay for some Dodger or White Sox bats. One bat I’ll be focused on here is Mitch Haniger ($3.1k) leading off. He’s returning from a pretty nasty testicle injury in 2019. Evan White ($2.7k) is another bat I’ll be focused on if you choose to skip over Abreu. He’s close to min priced and should be batting clean up.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Tonight’s slate, although small, has the makings of a fun slate. A powerful lineup in Coors, 2 aces making their debuts for their new teams, Wilmer Flores against a lefty. You will also have the opportunity to use 1 ace and 1 SP2, or 2 SP2’s. I’ll be using Snellzilla and Lopez!

Weather does not look to be a concern anywhere tonight.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/5 MLB DFS Two-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re in the heart of the MLB postseason and looking at some 10/5 DFS picks for the two-game slate and featured Showdown on DraftKings (9:07 EST). Let’s take in some data and find the gems on this awesome Saturday of MLB DFS action!

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10/5 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK & FD)

The games: Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (5:07 p.m. EST) & Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros (9:07 p.m. EST)

SP Strategy

Starting the right combo of two pitchers could give you a 20-40 point lead over the wrong combo of two starters, and there’s some huge value plays on this slate.

SP1: Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TB (DK $10,800, FD $12,200)

For the most dominant pitcher on the slate, you’ll be spending top dollar, though Cole (who struck out over 300 batters in 2019) is much more affordable on DK. With his K/9 upside, he’s got the easiest avenue to 25+ DK points.

SP1 pivot: Blake Snell (DK $7,500, FD $9,400)

It’s hard to trust Snell against this dynamic and powerful Astros lineup. They hit for contact and power and sport a 131 wRC+ against LHPs. He’s super risky even at this price and Astros hitters have had plenty of success against him. He’s also probably not going to go past 2-3 IP, given his short appearances in his previous three starts/opens.

SP2: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY vs. MIN (DK $6,400, FD $8,000)

Tanaka usually pitches well in big games, and he’s been areliable starter in the postseason for the Yankees the past several years (3-2,1.50 ERA/ 3.49 FIP, .162 BAA and 22.3 K%). I like that he’s carrying about a 4-to-1K/BB rate after the All-Star break, even if there’s a chance he gets blown up fora couple HRs early. That would be a disaster for us, but his pivot – devoid of playoffexperience and still a veritable neophyte at the big-league level, is evenriskier.

SP2 pivot: Randy Dobnak (DK $5,800, FD $5,500)

Dobnak’s regular season numbers look a bit like Tanaka’spostseason stats – so he’s worth a look. But the Yankees were having somepretty good at-bats last night and I’m just not too interested in a play thisrisky.

10/5 DFS SP1/2 Combo Breakdown:

Top 3:

Cole/Tanaka leaves $4,100 per hitter on DK (Preferred – mixing in value and stud bats)
Tanaka/Dobnak leaves $4,725 per hitter on DK (For an Astros full power stack and just a couple of the best Yanks/Twins bats)
Snell/Tanaka leaves $4,512 per hitter on DK (super risky but viable if Cole gets less than 20 points and Snell pitches 2-3 clean)

Bottom 3:

Cole/Dobnak leaves $4,175 per hitter on DK (The option if you want to fade Tanaka)
Snell/Dobnak leaves $4,587 per hitter on DK (Crazy talk)
Cole/Snell leaves $3.962 per hitter on DK (No thanks)

10/5 DFS Hitters

10/5 DFS C: Martin Maldonado, HOU (DK $2,900, FD $2,200)

If Maldonado gets the start, he’s probably the cheapest starting bat on the slate and makes perfect sense as a contrarian play the obvious options of Gary Sanchez and Travis d’Arnaud, who’s got four hits in four career AB (with a homer) against Gerrit Cole. Pivots: Sanchez for power upside, d’Arnaud for BvP fanatics.

10/5 DFS 1B: Edwin Encarnacion, NYY (DK $4,600, FD $3,800)

The most expensive 1B is still a bargain at this price, and he’s got multi-homer upside in Yankee Stadium. The Parrot walker has a 121 wRC+ against right-handers this season. Pivot: Yuri Gurriel (1B/3B) at just $4,200 on DK.

10/5 DFS 2B: Jose Altuve, HOU (DK $4,300, FD $4,100)

We’re still on track with our basic builds of Astros/Yankees and the price is depressed on DK. I’m not going to overthink this one, plugging in one of the best hitters of the past decade, postseason included. Pivot: Jonathan Schoop ($3,500 on DK) if he’s starting.

10/5 DFS 3B: D.J. LeMahieu, NYY (DK $4,500, FD $3,800)

The Yankees leadoff hitter connected last night and always give you a chance with his high contact rates and ability to punch one the other way. He drew some surprising comparisons to Derek Jeter in an eye-opening deep dive before he even played a game for the Yankees, and I’ve been a believer from day one. Pivot: Alex Bregman ($4,300 on FD), Gurriel on DK.

10/5 DFS SS: Alex Bregman, HOU (DK $4,800)

Bregman launched 41 homers this year in an MVP-type season, including six in his final 13 games. He’s exceptional against LHPs (205 wRC+ and .473 wOBA) and there’s no reason to leave him out of your builds. Pivot: Gleyber Torres ($4,000 on DK), Didi Gregorius ($3,200 on FD).

10/5 DFS OF: Brett Gardner, NYY ($DK $4,200, FD $2,900)

Opposing teams have been pitching the sluggers carefully this season, and guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton may only see a couple mashable pitches over multiple ABs. This has allowed Gardner to bulk up his power numbers (28 HRs and .253 ISO) this season and produce at unexpected levels. He’s inexpensive and will be chalky, but he’s a must-have in your lineup builds. Pivot: Jake Marisnick (DK $3,000, FD $2,300) – I’ll have some lineups with both Gardner and Marisnick so I can fit all these other big bats.

10/5 DFS OF: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (DK $4,000, FD $3,800)

Getting Stanton at this price seems like highway robbery, and while he’s probably going to exit early for a pinch runner or defensive replacement, he can get a lot done in 2-3 ABs. Watching his ABs last night, he looks good and is going to make most of my GPP lineups. Pivot: Michael Brantley (DK $3,800, FD $3,500).

10/5 DFS OF: Max Kepler, MIN (DK $4,500, FD $3,400)

I need some Twins in here and I’m most interested in Kepler, who’s plate approach and batted ball data seems tailor-made for Yankee Stadium. He’s a pull hitter and Tanaka could easily serve up a dinger if he leaves one in Kepler’s wheelhouse. Pivot: Eddie Rosario (DK $4,500, FD $3,600).

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10/5 DFS FeaturedShowdown (9:07 p.m. on DK)

It’s going to be tough to use Cole as CPT and use allprobable starting players, but you can do it.

Sample DK Showdown Lineup with Cole at CPT ($400 remaining :

Captain (1.5x) – G. Cole ($18,000)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($8,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,800)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($5,800)

UTIL – J. Marisnick ($5,600)

UTIL – J. Wendle ($4,000)

I‘m more inclined to use Cole at UTIL and fit in a studAstros bat at CPT (with d’Arnaud as my lone TB bat in the Altuve build):

Sample with Cole at UTIL:

Captain (1.5x) – A. Bregman ($14,700) or J. Altuve ($13,500)

UTIL – G. Cole ($12,000)

UTIL – J. Marisnick ($5,600)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($5,800)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($5,000)

UTIL – M. Straw ($6,800) or M. Brantley ($7,800)

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10/5 DFS FeaturedSingle-Game (9:07 EST on FD)

Hitters only, with Springer or Brantley determining if it’sMaldonado or Gurriel in the last spot.

Sample FD lineup:

MVP (2x) – A. Bregman ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – J. Altuve ($8,000)

UTIL – T. d’Arnaud ($4,000)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,500)/M.Brantley ($7,500)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)/Y. Gurriel ($6,500)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/23 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

5 years ago

written by

This five-game 9/23 MLB DFS slate is a rather odd duck. Besides the simple fact we have a small player pool to choose from, we also have several matchups that for DFS purposes are a complete fade. The key tonight is going to be variance. Even in cash games the cash line between first place and last place, more-than-likely will be small. So, do not be afraid to take chances.

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On the Defense

PatrickCorbin vs. Philadelphia Phillies

$10,500 FD / $11,800 DK

Warning! The Philadelphia Phillies are a lot less dangerous than they appear in the mirror. Especially facing Patrick Corbin on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate. The Phillies are striking out 23.1 percent of the time versus LHPs with a middle of the pack .329 wOBA. Despite the fact Corbin has had two sub-par starts this year facing Philadelphia they were both on the road. His home ERA is 2.00 versus his 4.18 ERA while traveling. Corbin has the highest upside on the slate by far, and with no Coors Field game, and limited high-priced bats to spend up on, he is at the top of the hill.

BlakeSnell vs. Boston Red Sox

$7,500 FD / $10,300 DK

The algorithm on FD tonight seems to have hit the mark pricing wise with Snell set to pitch only three or four innings on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate. The thing is, if Snell goes four innings allowing one earned run while striking out six, that is a pretty good day in DFS. Especially on this slate, just keep in mind he will not be getting any kind of site bonuses tonight.

Snell has huge K upside while generally being able to keep batters under control. In his only start versus the mighty Red Sox he went six innings with seven strikeouts allowing one earned run. With Boston winding down their season, and the Rays in a dogfight for the Wild Card, I would take a shot here on FD.

ZackEflin vs. Washington Nationals

$8,200 FD / $6,200 DK

It’s a small 9/23 MLB DFS slate which means chances must be taken. Eflin this season facing Washington has a 1.50 ERA with 21 strikeouts over 18 innings. His price on DK is bottom low which makes no sense considering he has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last five starts. This makes for a fine GPP play on FD, and a great pitcher to pair with Corbin on DK, despite facing each other.

Name	Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Patrick Corbin	Nationals	191.2	10.52	3.01	0.99	48.90%	13.00%	3.1	3.61
Blake Snell	Rays	103	12.23	3.06	1.22	40.20%	16.30%	4.19	3.21
Zach Eflin	Phillies	150.2	7.23	2.51	1.43	44.70%	15.10%	4	4.67

On theAttack

MikeShawaryn vs. Tampa Bay Rays

With the Red Sox playing at this point just to finish the season, Shawaryn could get stretched out an extra inning or two. His history suggests he will come in tonight, give up a bunch of runs right away, and be pulled. Why pull him now? The Rays offense is going to feast tonight facing a Red Sox team basically just giving guys innings. Stack away on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate.

Tampa BayRays vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
Austin Meadows	400	10.80%	19.00%	0.57	10	0.383	0.575	0.958	0.279	0.393	151
Brandon Lowe	246	8.50%	28.90%	0.3	5	0.358	0.548	0.906	0.265	0.376	139
Willy Adames	377	8.80%	24.90%	0.35	3	0.364	0.468	0.832	0.171	0.353	124
Ji-Man Choi	384	13.50%	22.40%	0.6	2	0.367	0.452	0.819	0.19	0.347	120
Eric Sogard	322	8.40%	12.70%	0.66	6	0.356	0.438	0.795	0.144	0.338	112
Avisail Garcia	342	5.00%	24.30%	0.2	10	0.333	0.459	0.792	0.171	0.333	110
Tommy Pham	437	9.60%	18.80%	0.51	15	0.33	0.441	0.771	0.19	0.327	106
Jesus Aguilar	217	11.50%	21.20%	0.54	0	0.333	0.418	0.752	0.174	0.32	96
Yandy Diaz	227	9.30%	15.40%	0.6	1	0.317	0.428	0.745	0.179	0.314	98
Nathaniel Lowe	131	6.90%	29.00%	0.24	0	0.313	0.429	0.742	0.168	0.313	97
Joey Wendle	192	4.70%	15.10%	0.31	7	0.318	0.387	0.705	0.127	0.302	90
Travis d’Arnaud	228	8.30%	21.90%	0.38	0	0.303	0.368	0.67	0.132	0.289	81
Kevin Kiermaier	342	5.80%	20.80%	0.28	14	0.257	0.39	0.647	0.189	0.27	68
Daniel Robertson	136	10.30%	23.50%	0.44	1	0.287	0.271	0.558	0.093	0.255	57
Mike Zunino	183	5.50%	33.90%	0.16	0	0.235	0.365	0.6	0.188	0.254	57
Guillermo Heredia	103	9.70%	29.10%	0.33	2	0.267	0.244	0.512	0.093	0.237	46

AdamWainwright vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Before you read any further you need to understand the Cardinals are playing at another level right now, and their pitching is no exception. Wainwright has been lights out lately both at home, and on the road. The Arizona Diamondbacks are also 26^th in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs. Everything looks to be in order tonight for Adam basically facing Eve. Or is it? If I had a nickel for every time I jumped on a pitcher with a tendency to be horrible on the road, who suddenly is Nolan Ryan, I would have a whole lot of nickels over the last seven years. On a five-game slate, with no one looking here, I am going to take some chances in GPP play on a Wainwright regression for this 9/23 MLB DFS slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+
Abraham Almonte	27	11.10%	25.90%	0.43	0	0.407	0.667	1.074	0.437	171
Ketel Marte	454	10.10%	14.10%	0.72	8	0.396	0.577	0.973	0.404	150
Christian Walker	411	8.80%	26.80%	0.33	7	0.336	0.48	0.815	0.341	108
Kevin Cron	53	5.70%	35.80%	0.16	0	0.264	0.571	0.836	0.337	106
Eduardo Escobar	478	8.40%	19.00%	0.44	4	0.318	0.502	0.82	0.336	106
Alex Avila	158	19.60%	34.20%	0.57	1	0.367	0.449	0.816	0.336	105
Wilmer Flores	165	6.70%	10.30%	0.65	0	0.352	0.367	0.718	0.314	91
Adam Jones	345	5.20%	19.40%	0.27	2	0.314	0.418	0.732	0.311	89
Tim Locastro	142	4.90%	15.50%	0.32	15	0.362	0.308	0.67	0.307	86
Carson Kelly	251	12.00%	21.50%	0.56	0	0.303	0.416	0.718	0.298	81
Nick Ahmed	444	8.10%	19.10%	0.42	7	0.3	0.397	0.697	0.294	78
Jarrod Dyson	382	10.70%	18.10%	0.59	29	0.307	0.326	0.633	0.28	69
Jake Lamb	183	13.70%	23.50%	0.58	1	0.311	0.289	0.601	0.272	64
Josh Rojas	100	9.00%	24.00%	0.38	2	0.28	0.3	0.58	0.258	54
Ildemaro Vargas	150	5.30%	14.00%	0.38	1	0.273	0.303	0.576	0.251	50
Caleb Joseph	29	3.40%	20.70%	0.17	0	0.214	0.231	0.445	0.199	16

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick – Play These Picks Now and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Patrick Corbin has had eight strikeouts or more in six of his last eight starts. With the Phillies striking out so heavily versus RHPs, the over is the path here.

Zach Eflin has had great success facing Washington this season easily surpassing 3.5 strikeouts in each start. Why should this change tonight? Over.

Despite Adam Wainwright’s recent success I smell serious regression here tonight. Over his last six starts he only has more than four strikeouts one time. The under is where I am looking on this one.

Although the Cardinals are striking out 22.3 percent of the time versus RHPs, the pitcher in question has a lot of four strikeout games. Facing a hot Cardinals team the under is the answer.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/17 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

5 years ago

written by

This 9/17 MLB DFS slate has me oddly excited. It was a great weekend of NFL DFS, and another winning weekend for yours truly. Although the big money screenshots are alluring, the everyday DFS player understands it is all about your ROI (Return on Investment). Taking down a large field GPP is nice, don’t get me wrong, but the most successful players in the industry rarely do this. What they do accomplish on a regular basis is a solid 3-to-5 times ROI. It’s all about the long haul. So, with Harborlights’ “Isolation Ritual” playing in the background here is tonight’s picks.

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On the Defense

Once again on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate the Mets are at Coors Field with an implied total of 13.5. Lucky for us we have some nice mid-priced options on both sites to complement Justin Verlander, for example, if you were to do so on a two-pitcher site like DK.

JustinVerlander vs. Texas Rangers

$12,000 FD / $12,800 DK

With a Coors Field game, and plenty of starting pitching on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate to take a chance on, Verlander could be low owned. The Rangers are striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs with a wRC+ of 87. In his last four starts facing Texas he literally put up video game numbers, completely dominating them to the tune of 35 strikeouts over 26 innings while only allowing five earned runs. There is little doubt he is the top option tonight.

MilesMikolas vs. Washington Nationals

$7,200 FD / $7,900

Much like last night I completely expect this game to be low scoring. Dakota Hudson certainly posted a great start last night, but for DFS purposes put up a dud, netting one strikeout. On this 9/17 MLB DFS slate the K upside is certainly in question with the Nationals only striking out 21.1 percent of the time versus RHPs, but Mikolas has pitched well in his only start versus the Nats this season. He had four strikeouts over six innings while only allowing one earned run. For the salary he makes an excellent option to pair with Verlander tonight on DK, or as a great large field GPP play on FD.

Adam Plutkovs. Detroit Tigers

$7,800 FD / $7,700 DK

Although I prefer Mikolas the Detroit Tigers often offer a bevy of strikeout upside facing most pitchers, and this 9/17 MLB DFS slate is no different. Over Plutko’s three starts versus the Tigers this season he has dominated them twice. Both times with excellent fantasy numbers. With the Tigers striking out 26.6 percent of the time versus RHPs, and Plutko having shown in the past he can handle this lineup, a fine option has presented itself.

BrettAnderson vs. Kansas City Royals

$6,500 FD / $5,300 DK

It is time to step up on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate and take a chance. The Royals are striking out 28.5 percent of the time over the last seven days and carry a low .309 wOBA versus LHPs. Anderson is certainly no Sandy Koufax, Bob Feller, or Bob Gibson but does have that Denny McClain kind of vibe where he comes out to play now and again, and this game certainly seems like it could be the case. I plan on using him tonight in some large field GPPs on DK to free up major salary.

Name	Team	W	L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Justin Verlander	Astros	18	6	206	12.01	1.66	1.49	34.70%	15.70%	2.58	3.29
Miles Mikolas	Cardinals	9	13	170.1	7.19	1.59	1.32	47.50%	16.20%	4.28	4.13
Adam Plutko	Indians	6	4	97.2	6.08	1.94	1.94	30.70%	14.50%	4.42	5.56
Brett Anderson	Athletics	12	9	166	4.61	2.6	1.08	54.60%	14.10%	4.07	4.84

On theAttack

For obvious reasons the Mets / Rockies game is the chalkstack of the night. But if one was so inclined to do so on this 9/17 MLB DFSslate you could look elsewhere, like here.

BlakeSnell vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The algorithms on this 9/17 MLB DFS slate all have the pricing adjusted for the Dodgers facing Blake Snell. The thing is the reports are he is only going to be throwing around three innings. This opens the door for the sub-par Rays relievers to handle the workload. On some of these bats you can certainly take a chance the Dodgers have a big night.

Dodgers vs. LHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	SB	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Cody Bellinger	213	14.60%	16.90%	4	0.385	0.597	0.397	150
Edwin Rios	7	14.30%	28.60%	0	0.429	0.5	0.397	149
Gavin Lux	5	0.00%	20.00%	0	0.2	0.8	0.387	143
A.J. Pollock	96	6.30%	19.80%	2	0.385	0.545	0.386	142
Justin Turner	177	8.50%	19.80%	0	0.356	0.582	0.384	141
David Freese	107	15.00%	26.20%	0	0.383	0.516	0.379	138
Max Muncy	169	11.20%	29.00%	2	0.361	0.527	0.372	133
Chris Taylor	152	11.80%	23.70%	2	0.351	0.545	0.363	128
Russell Martin	64	14.10%	20.30%	1	0.359	0.415	0.338	111
Enrique Hernandez	165	8.50%	16.40%	3	0.339	0.442	0.325	103
Corey Seager	174	8.00%	25.30%	0	0.31	0.378	0.297	85
Will Smith	57	8.80%	40.40%	1	0.281	0.423	0.29	80
Joc Pederson	49	2.00%	30.60%	0	0.245	0.271	0.223	36
Tyler White	104	13.50%	30.80%	0	0.26	0.213	0.222	36
Jedd Gyorko	36	11.10%	19.40%	1	0.25	0.188	0.207	25
Matt Beaty	34	2.90%	17.60%	1	0.176	0.156	0.154	-9

JorgeLopez vs. Oakland Athletics

The Athletics are fighting harder than Rocky Balboa, atleast in the first three movies. Although Lopez has posted a few decent startsas of late, 41.1 percent of the baseballs still exit the bat at 95+ MPH. Upagainst a team like Oakland who often puts the ball in play, on this 9/17 MLBDFS slate a Dodgers / Athletics stack would certainly be a nice option.

Athletics vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	SB	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
Seth Brown	47	10.60%	21.30%	0	0.489	0.683	0.483	212
Matt Olson	353	11.60%	25.80%	0	0.385	0.588	0.398	154
Mark Canha	321	13.40%	24.00%	2	0.408	0.532	0.395	153
Marcus Semien	517	11.40%	14.30%	10	0.366	0.523	0.371	136
Ramon Laureano	331	6.00%	26.90%	9	0.344	0.535	0.363	131
Matt Chapman	465	9.90%	22.80%	1	0.34	0.498	0.351	122
Robbie Grossman	409	12.70%	17.40%	8	0.35	0.362	0.311	96
Chad Pinder	181	3.90%	24.90%	0	0.272	0.408	0.285	78
Jurickson Profar	378	8.20%	14.60%	5	0.27	0.395	0.281	75
Josh Phegley	231	4.80%	20.80%	0	0.271	0.373	0.273	70
Khris Davis	365	7.70%	29.60%	0	0.266	0.339	0.259	60

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

Alex Bregman has been in a bit of slump as of late, batting .188 over the last seven days. With Lance Lynn dominating the Astros this season, and Bregman having little success over eight at bats, under all the way.

With Choo batting .183 lifetime off of Verlander over 93 plate appearances, and his complete dominance this season of the Rangers, under all the way.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

7/21 MLB DFS Podcast With Founder Jason Mezrahi and Meteorologist Mark Paquette

Jason Mezrahi 5 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

Jason Mezrahi and Mark Paquette discuss the Main FanDuel MLB DFS Slate on the 7/21 MLB DFS Podcast. They break down the main slate on FanDuel. Its your typical Sunday Slate schedule so listen closely to who they like. We got a touch decision on finding the right pitching. The question remains, Do you we pay up for Snell or look for value with guys like Cease or possibly even Marquez. We also have some weather concerns to deal with so make sure you follow along with Mark as he gives our listeners a preview of all weather for this Sunday slate of fantasy baseball games.

7/21 MLB DFS Podcast Stacks

We have to find bats and Jason thinks we should head back to a Boston Stack. Listen closely though because the second stack is tougher to figure out. When your’e done listening to our 7/21 MLB DFS Podcast, please check out our premium weather blog to stay up to date on your busy Sunday

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Thank you for listening to the Sunday 7/21 MLB DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Pitching/Monkey Knife Fight Picks: Max Effort

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

it is a 14 game schedule for this last Sunday in June as the Red Sox “host” the Yankees across the pond at 10 am. Will today’s ace (Max Scherzer) disappoint like last night’s (Justin Verlander) did? The odds say no, but also Coors will likely have more than eight runs scored. Something has to give when it comes to designing your DFS lineups today. It is going to be very difficult to make a choice between spending on Max and spending on Coors bats. And we have other aces to chose from as well!

Upper-Tier DFS Arms

Max Scherzer, Nationals at Tigers ($12,500 FD, $12,300 DK): This just might be the highest price tags on a player/pitcher that you will see this year. So it comes down to this: do you pay up for Scherzer and require an ace start out of him (anything less and your day is likely done)? Or do you find a more affordable arm and try to get some big Coors bat in? Decisions, decisions today for sure! What makes this start for Max even more interesting is Scherzer hasn’t started at Comerica Park since joining the Nationals in 2015. The last time this ace faced his former team was his 20-strikeout game in ’16. Scherzer is 5-0 with a 0.97 ERA with three straight double-digit strikeout starts in the month of June. Scherzer certainly has to be in your cash-game consideration.

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Gerrit Cole, Mariners at Astros ($11,200 FD, $11,900 DK): This is not much of a discount today for sure! The last time Cole and Scherzer pitched on the same day, I chose to take the discount with Cole and spent up a bit for bats. That really did not work out for me. And I do not think that works out for you today either. Obviously, he is in play every time he takes the mound but today I am considering him GPP-only. Cole has posted a quality start in each of his past six games, with a 2.19 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 37 innings in that span. He has pitched great recently, coming off a stretch where he has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. He already has 151 strikeouts on the season and 300 is not an impossibility.

Middle-Tier DFS Arms

Blake Snell, Rangers at Rays ($8,500 FD, $8,000 DK): Oh how the mighty have fallen. Look at that price on DK, talk about savings. He is obviously a GPP-only choice here with how the results have been recently. But the upside is still there. Advanced statistics (K%: 31.6% in ’18, 31.7% this season, xFIP: .316 in ’18 vs. 3.20 in ’19) tell us that Snell is no different than he was last year. Our eyes tell us something else. He is not a choice for the faint of heart (or cash-game players).

Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks at Giants ($9,600 FD, $10,000 DK): It is debatable as to whether he should be considered middle-tier or upper-tier, Ray is beginning to pitch like a potential ace. Ray has nine punch-outs in each of his last two starts and it seems a 15 K game is just around the corner. He has good history against both the Giants and at this park, going 5-1 with a 3.01 ERA in 13 career starts, including 4-1 with a 2.34 ERA in six outings at Oracle Park. Even through his struggles earlier in the year, Ray has remained consistently able to throw strike three. He’s averaging 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings, 0.3 short of his NL-leading average from 2017.

Bargain Basement DFS Arm

Andrew Heaney, Athletics at Angels ($7,400 FD, $7,500 DK): When you look at cheap pitchers, you at least want some upside. And the easiest way to fantasy points are strikeouts. And with Heaney, we have a cheap pitcher with strikeout potential, with 36 strikeouts in 30.2 innings pitched on the year. It is an afternoon game in Anaheim, so the shadows and bright sunshine can make the ball more difficult to pick up from the batters’ perspective and this could give Heaney an edge.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy over 1.5 HRs

The old saying is scared money does not make money. So let’s go back to where some people may be scared away from today, Coors Field. With only eight runs scored there last night. some people got burned there (I did! I did!) 90 degrees in the middle of the day with very little wind? Sounds like a good recipe for HRs. Oh, did I mention someone named Chi-Chi is pitching for the Rockies? I thought he was a golfer from the 80s.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Winners and Losers: Chavez, Bregman and More

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

We had a full 15 game DFS slate on Tuesday, June 25th. Max Scherzer was the obvious top pitcher on the day and performed as such, but there were some lesser known players who performed great as well. Points and salaries are based on DraftKings.

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Winners

Jesse Chavez ($5,300)

Chavez was one of the lowest priced pitchers on the slate Tuesday and gave us humungous DFS value. Chavez and the Rangers visited the Detroit Tigers and he pitched a brilliant 6.1 innings. He gave up only five hits and struck out seven while getting the win. He scored 29.25 DFS points. Chavez has worked mainly out of the bullpen this season and sports a 2.79 ERA to go with his WHIP of 1.22. His K/9 is now at 8.37. Chavez now has a record of 3-2.

Chavez’s Outlook

Chavez’s next projected start will come on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday, June 30th. This could be another spot to target the low priced Chavez in DFS as the Rays have not fared too well lately. In the month of June, the Rays rank 21st in runs scored and average only 4.39 runs per game. They rank even worse in team OPS and that is at .727. To add even more upside to this matchup, the Rays have struck out 203 times in June, fifth worst in the league. Chavez will be a great money saving Doption in DFS with this matchup.

Alex Bregman ($4,600)

Although some may see this as an obvious name, Alex Bregman has been in a slump as shown with his June totals. Going into Tuesday, Bregman had a June batting average of just .240 to go with an OPS of .817. He had hit four home runs and only two other extra base hits, both doubles. Only one of his last 15 games ended with a multi hit performance. Bregman may have started his bounce back Tuesday after going 3-for-4 with a home run and a double. He added three runs scored to go with his one RBI. This gave him 26 fantasy points in DraftKings DFS.

Bregman’s Outlook

Bregman and the Astros have two more home games against the Pirates on Wednesday and Thursday. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has struggled all year and has been even worse lately. They have a team ERA of 5.08 on the year and 5.65 in the month of June. Both of these stats rank outside the Top 25. They then host the Mariners, who rank even worse than the Pirates, both overall and in the month of June in team ERA. After that the Astros go to Coors Field for a two game stretch. This next week is setting up great for Bregman and the Astros offense. Springer is also back in the lineup, which will only help Bregman’s DFS value.

Mitch Garver ($5,000)

Garver and the Minnesota Twins offense stayed hot Tuesday, beating the Tampa Bay Rays 9-4. Garver, batting in the two spot, had a nice game, going 3-for-5. He hit a home run, scored two times, and had three RBI. Garver missed a large part of the season in May, but when he has been in the lineup he has been electric for DFS purposes. He now has a batting average of .305 to go with a monster OPS of 1.038. He has hit 12 home runs and has 31 RBI in only 39 games.

Garver’s Outlook

Garver and the Twins have two more home games against the Rays before heading to Chicago for a three game set with the White Sox. The Rays have had a great pitching staff all year and although they haven’t been as top notch lately, they have still pitched well. They rank number one in team ERA on the season and ninth in the league in the month of June. Garver should put up bigger DFS numbers when he matches up with the White Sox. The Sox pitching staff ranks 21st in team ERA at 5.22. He is worth a DFS contrarian look against the Rays but worth a harder look against the White Sox.

Losers

Blake Snell ($9,000)

Snell had his second consecutive horrid start on Tuesday. He was only able to get through 3.1 innings while giving up seven earned runs and 11 hits. He also walked one while getting four strikeouts. Snell’s ERA has skyrocketed over his last two starts and is now above five. His WHIP has also risen to 1.34. His strikeout numbers are still there with a K/9 of 11.96, which will keep him as an intriguing DFS player. Snell has now given up 13 earned runs on 13 hits over his past 3.1 innings.

Snell’s Outlook

Snell’s next projected start will come against the Texas Rangers, at home, on Sunday, June 30th. Texas has had a good offense all year. They rank fifth in runs scored and have stayed constant in that stat, ranking sixth in June. On the contrary, they also strike out a ton. They have the second most strikeouts in the league this year and the most in the month of June. This is going to be one of the biggest risk-reward DFS spots of the season for Snell. He has been awful lately and should be low owned but the strikeout upside is immense in this spot. Approach with caution here in DFS, but he still has a very high ceiling.

Trevor Richards ($8,000)

Trevor Richards and the Miami Marlins hosted the Nationals Tuesday and lost 6-1. Richards was able to get through five innings but gave up six earned runs on seven hits and and two walks. He gave up one home run and struck out three. Richards’ ERA is now at 3.94 and his WHIP is at 1.28. His K/9 is a bit low and sits at 8.09.

Richards’ Outlook

Richards’ next projected start will come at home against the Phillies on Sunday, June 30th. The Phillies have an average offense but have been relatively bad lately. In the month of June, the Phillies rank 24th in runs scored and average 4.24 per game. The Phillies have avoided the strikeout very well and average only 7.5 per game. This combination adds up to a low upside start for Richards, which will cause me to stay away in DFS.

Injury Report

Tim Anderson left Tuesday’s game with an ankle injury. His X-rays came back negative and he will be someone to keep an eye on in the short term.

Max Kepler left the game after being hit in the elbow by a pitch.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Winners and Losers: Corbin, Snell and More

Ethan Thiel 5 years ago

written by Ethan Thiel

There was a full slate of games on Wednesday, June 19th. We actually played 16 games as the Phillies and Nationals had a doubleheader. Snell had one of the worst starts of his career while Corbin bounced back after a few tough starts and a couple of rainouts. Points and salaries are based on DraftKings. I covered the early games here and my fellow colleague, Mark Paquette, covered the late games.

Early Winner

Patrick Corbin ($8,200)

Corbin started the first of two games against the Phillies Wednesday and pitched really well. He pitched seven full innings while striking out eight and giving up only one earned run. He gave up four hits, three walks, and one solo home run. This was a good bounce-back performance for Corbin, who has not pitched well lately. He gave up 16 earned runs on 22 hits over his last 12 innings. He improved to 6-5 on the year and his ERA is now at 3.90. His WHIP is at 1.20 and his K/9 is in good shape at 9.95.

Corbin’s Outlook

Corbin’s next projected start will come at home against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday, June 23rd. The Braves’ offense has been good all year, averaging 5.41 runs per game and nearly 7.5 in the month of June. Their June team batting average of .293 trails only the Rockies and they have hit more home runs than any other team in that span with 37. They have been susceptible to the strikeout, though, and rank seventh in that category in June. The Braves’ offense has been too good to think Corbin can back this great start up with another one. We will be looking elsewhere for pitcher points come Sunday.

Early Loser

Blake Snell ($9,500)

Blake Snell had one of the roughest outings for a starting pitcher we have seen all year. He was only able to get one Yankee out while giving up six earned runs on two hits and four walks. Snell gave up a homer to Gary Sanchez. He netted a horrible -14.85 points. We know the Yankees’ lineup is starting to shape up, but this was more of a control problem than anything as shown with the four walks. Snell had been good going into Wednesday and had an ERA of 3.70 to go with a WHIP of 1.17. His K/9 was at a healthy 12.07.

Snell’s Outlook

Snell might not find his next start to be much easier as he faces off agaisnt the Minnesota Twins, on the road, on Tuesday June 25th. The Twins have scored more runs this year than any other team and average nearly six a game. They also lead the league in team batting average and home runs. Snell should be plenty rested but expecting a bounce-back performance agaisnt the top offense in baseball is asking a bit too much. We will be staying away for his start in Minnesota.

Late Winners

Max Scherzer($11,700)/Mike Trout ($4,800): It is so easy to write-up two of the best players in the game, but on the roll these guys are on, what the heck! Trout has homered in three of his last four games and is up to 22 on the year. His on-base percentage is an absurd .462 and .474 for the month of June. He is the best player in the game. Scherzer is making a case of regaining the crown of best pitcher in the league. He is simply on a dominant roll, making his “struggles” of early in the season a distant memory. In his previous three June starts (not including last night’s gem) he was 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA, 34 strikeouts, 12 hits allowed and three walks over 22 innings.

Scherzer’s and Trout’s Outlooks:

Only an injury can slow these two behemoths down. Well….maybe not even that! A full-blown shiner from a broken nose did not bother Scherzer in the least last night.

Late Losers

Texas pitching staff/bullpen (minus Lance Lynn and Mike Minor): Last season, Globe Life Park was the best park to score runs in and was the third easiest to hit a home run in. This season it is currently middle of the pack in both categories, but as the brutal summer heat begins to build (the last two games were the first pair in 90 degree heat) and continues through September, expect the rankings to return to their normal place at the top of the list. This spells trouble for next few months for arms in Texas (and visiting teams too) while bats should feast. Oh, did I mention that Texas has one of the worst bullpens in the league?

Texas Outlook:

Look for Texas bats, such as Joey Gallo when he is healthy, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus to only get better while the time to pick on arms on Texas in DFS contests is here! Globe Life Park might be the second-most common park to stack in the rest of the season, only behind Coors (of course). And do not ignore the visiting team when they come into town either!

5 years ago 0 comment

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Blake Snell

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks – Pitchers

MLB DFS Picks – Top Stacks

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

10/5 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK & FD)

SP Strategy

SP1: Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TB (DK $10,800, FD $12,200)

SP1 pivot: Blake Snell (DK $7,500, FD $9,400)

SP2: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY vs. MIN (DK $6,400, FD $8,000)

SP2 pivot: Randy Dobnak (DK $5,800, FD $5,500)

10/5 DFS SP1/2 Combo Breakdown:

10/5 DFS Hitters

10/5 DFS C: Martin Maldonado, HOU (DK $2,900, FD $2,200)

10/5 DFS 1B: Edwin Encarnacion, NYY (DK $4,600, FD $3,800)

10/5 DFS 2B: Jose Altuve, HOU (DK $4,300, FD $4,100)

10/5 DFS 3B: D.J. LeMahieu, NYY (DK $4,500, FD $3,800)

10/5 DFS SS: Alex Bregman, HOU (DK $4,800)

10/5 DFS OF: Brett Gardner, NYY ($DK $4,200, FD $2,900)

10/5 DFS OF: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (DK $4,000, FD $3,800)

10/5 DFS OF: Max Kepler, MIN (DK $4,500, FD $3,400)

10/5 DFS FeaturedShowdown (9:07 p.m. on DK)

Sample DK Showdown Lineup with Cole at CPT ($400 remaining :

Sample with Cole at UTIL:

10/5 DFS FeaturedSingle-Game (9:07 EST on FD)

Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick – Play These Picks Now and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

7/21 MLB DFS Podcast Stacks

Upper-Tier DFS Arms

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Middle-Tier DFS Arms

Bargain Basement DFS Arm

Winners

Jesse Chavez ($5,300)

Chavez’s Outlook

Alex Bregman ($4,600)

Bregman’s Outlook

Mitch Garver ($5,000)

Garver’s Outlook

Losers

Blake Snell ($9,000)

Snell’s Outlook

Trevor Richards ($8,000)

Richards’ Outlook

Injury Report

Early Winner

Patrick Corbin ($8,200)

Corbin’s Outlook

Early Loser

Blake Snell ($9,500)

Snell’s Outlook

Late Winners

Scherzer’s and Trout’s Outlooks:

Late Losers

Texas Outlook:

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