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MLB

MLB DFS Stealing Home: Sunday, June 6th

Josh Barzal
written by Josh Barzal

Welcome to my first edition of MLB DFS Stealing Home: Sunday, June 6th, I will look to give you guys the best plays possible in a brief breakdown to lead you to hit some green on today’s slate. We have a nice ten-game main slate today so let’s get into it.

There are two main aces on our slate today with Corbin Burnes and Trevor Bauer, of the two I heavily lean toward Burnes as he is in a better matchup with the Diamondbacks. Burnes is also an elite K% arm with a 38.7% K rate this year which I expect to continue today. I am pulling out a full fade on Bauer today as I expect he gets hit hard and often against this Braves offense. The next target I am looking at for pitchers is going to have to be Sandy Alcantara who has a matchup with the Pirates. He isn’t a strikeout ace with this 23.7% rate but I expect him to be the safest option on this slate as I believe I can make a case for almost every offense here. Plug Burnes and Alcantara and look for bats with our $3,687 remaining salary per player.

I hate to sound like our very own 2LockSports but my favorite overall stack on the day is going to be the Tampa lefties against Dane Dunning. Dunning is a respectable pitcher to righties but it all falls apart when he is trying to throw against lefties where his GB% sinks to 41.9% and his hard-hit rate climbs to 45.2%. I am looking to target Kevin Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, and Joey Wendle against Dunning today.

Picking through for value today I am looking at Sandy Leon (2,400), Hunter Dozier (3,300), Albert Pujols (2,500). Those are my main targets today for value as I like all three in their matchups, Pujols is mainly power hunting for cheap against Fried.

A bonus stack that I like today if you’re into following theories is to fully send the braves against Bauer. This has minimal numbers that support it but we saw the same thing happen to Gerrit Cole. The MLB is cracking down on the use of foreign substances and I believe Bauer is next on the list for their main targets. I expect spin rates will be down today and the Braves to mash on Bauer. I would target them as a low-owned full stack on today’s slate.

Stealing Home: Summary

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Stealing Home: Sunday, June 6th. I believe our pitching strategy is doable with the value bats we have on this slate with the Rays being my favorite main stack against Dunning, as well as the full Braves stack if your feeling risky. For our other articles here at WinDaily click here, and to join our discord click here. Good luck today everyone!!! I will be in discord to answer questions!!!

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MLB

MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide

Andrew Arbeit
written by Andrew Arbeit

MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide

Howdy! Welcome to my 2021 Win Daily Sports’ MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide. If you read my last article, you have joined your MLB season-long fantasy leagues (mine are on CBS and Yahoo), scheduled your drafts, and are now preparing to dominate your leagues. This article will go over some strategies for keepers and drafts (auction and snake), as well as some player rankings.

KEEPERS

I enjoy keeper leagues. Two of my three leagues are keeper leagues. I like that it makes the fantasy league a year-round activity and allows for more skill to be involved. I especially like that fantasy league members with no shot at winning in a particular season are still incentivized to be involved because they can improve their chances for the following season and beyond by improving their keepers via trades and free agency. My recent favorite example of this occurred a few years ago in 2017 in my AL-Only keeper auction league. I was having a down year and was able to trade some non-keepers for a young Gary Sanchez and a still-in-the-minor-leagues, Gleybar Torres. Yes, I am a Mets fan, but I also like winning in fantasy leagues and this trade set me up for success for the next couple of seasons. In fact, Gleybar Torres is still on my team and at a lower than market rate price.

Make sure you know the rules in your league governing keepers. Most leagues will institute some kind of tax or inflation which will affect the keeper value of the player. In snake drafts, the tax usually is having the keeper player have to kept in a higher round than they were originally drafted, i.e., a player drafted in the 6th round would now be kept in the 4th round. In auction leagues, there may be an additional cost added to the player being kept, i.e., a player won at auction for $10 would be kept for $15. Additionally, there may be rules in both types of leagues for how many years a player can be kept. All these variables will affect how valuable your keeper is.

Speaking of value, that is the key to determining whether or not you should keep a player. You would not decide to make Mike Trout one of your keepers in a snake draft with the 1st overall pick in the 1st round of the draft. This is because there is no value in doing that when you could just keep other players and redraft Mike Trout. The same goes for an auction league where you would have to keep Trout for $75 but you believe it is likely he would only go between $50 – $60 in the draft. You have to make sure you have player rankings and auction prices figured out for your specific leagues when making your keeper determinations. You also need to determine your league’s inflation rate.

DRAFTS

Personally, I prefer auction drafts. I enjoy both, but there is more skill involved in auction drafts, so I typically perform better. Also, in snake drafts, I inherently do not like that my random and arbitrary draft slot decides who is on my team. I have a snake draft this week where I have the 13th pick out of 14 teams so I already know a few players I have no shot at drafting. Conversely, if any of my personally ranked top-12 players fall to me at #13, I am now getting a great value in my draft spot.

Whether you are in an auction or snake draft, if you sing while playing fantasy baseball you may not get a good pitch(er)! #DadJoke. While that joke is obviously terrible, my advice is not. Sing all you want because you do not need to waste valuable resources on good pitch(ers). Hitters, especially the top ones, are generally more consistent and less injury prone from year to year and thus more projectable. As such, they are a better use of prime auction dollars and high-round draft picks.

Your season-long fantasy league cannot be won the moment the draft is completed. Most successful teams will usually look vastly different at the end of the year. Even if you come out of the draft with a weak pitching staff, you will always be able to improve it on the waiver wire, free agency, or trades. An active manager has a better chance at being successful. This principle, added to the fact that it is usually much easier to find pitchers throughout the year, enforces my belief that hitters are more important in the draft.

In a snake draft, I will usually seek to draft 6-7 hitters in the first 10 rounds. In an auction draft, I am looking to spend 70-80% of my budget on hitters. Obviously, things can change if value appears (you know the saying, if they zig you want to zag), but this is generally my approach. It is also helpful to do some mock drafts.

RANKINGS

Now the moment some of my friends and league mates have been waiting for: Here are my personal 2021 MLB season-long fantasy draft guide league rankings by position. These rankings can change depending on league rules and team needs, i.e., if I need more speed or power or batting average depending on the other players on my team. Make sure you check your individual league and website for player’s position eligibility. Even more importantly, make sure you are up to date on a player’s injury status.

Catcher

1) J.T. Realmuto (PHI)
2) Yasmani Grandal (CWS)
3) Wilson Contrearas (CHC)
4) Salvador Perez (KC)
5) Will Smith (LAD)
6) Travis d’Arnaud (ATL)
7) Gary Sanchez (NYY)
8) Christian Vazquez (BOS)
9) James McCann (NYM)
10) Mitch Garver (MIN)

Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Sean Murphy (OAK)

First Base

1) Freddie Freeman (ATL)
2) Pete Alonso (NYM)
3) Jose Abreu (CWS)
4) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)
5) Matt Olsen (OAK)
6) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
7) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)
8) Max Muncy (LAD)
9) Eric Hosmer (SD)
10) Rhys Hoskins (PHI)

Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Josh Bell (WSH) and Miguel Sano (MIN)

Top 10 but injured and can be drafted lower than normal: Luke Voit (NYY)

Young players with upside I like: Jared Walsh (LAA) and Bobby Dalbec (BOS)

Second Base

1) DJ LeMahieu (NYY)
2) Ozzie Albies (ATL)
3) Keston Hiura (MIL)
4) Ketel Marte (ARI)
5) Jose Altuve (HOU)
6) Cavan Biggio (TOR)
7) Brandon Lowe (TB)
8) Mike Moustakas (CIN)
9) Nick Madrigal (CWS)
10) Jean Segura (PHI)

Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Ryan McMahon (COL) and Cesar Hernandez (CLE)

Young players with upside I like: Gavin Lux (LAD)

Shortstop

1) Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)
2) Trea Turner (WSH)
3) Trevor Story (COL)
4) Francisco Lindor (NYM)
5) Corey Seager (LAD)
6) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)
7) Bo Bichette (TOR)
8) Adalberto Mondesi (KC)
9) Gleybar Torres (NYY)
10) Tim Anderson (CWS)

Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Javier Baez (CHC), Carlos Correa (HOU), Marcus Semien (TOR), and Dansby Swanson (ATL)

Young players with upside I like: Willi Castro (DET)

Third Base

1) Jose Ramirez (CLE)
2) Rafael Devers (BOS)
3) Manny Machado (SD)
4) Alex Bregman (HOU)
5) Anthony Rendon (LAA)
6) Eugenio Suarez (CIN)
7) Nolan Arenado (STL)
8) Matt Chapman (OAK)
9) Kris Bryant (CHC)
10) Yoan Moncada (CWS)

Just outside my top 10 but I would not mind drafting: Justin Turner (LAD)

Young players with upside I like: Alec Bohm (PHI), Austin Riley (ATL), and Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT)

Outfield

1) Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)
2) Mike Trout (LAA)
3) Juan Soto (WSH)
4) Mookie Betts (LAD)
5) Christian Yelich (MIL)
6) Cody Bellinger (LAD)
7) George Springer (TOR)
8) Bryce Harper (WSH)
9) Marcell Ozuna (ATL)
10) Aaron Judge (NYY)
11) Luis Robert (CWS)
12) Kyle Tucker (HOU)
13) Charlie Blackmon (COL)
14) Michael Conforto (NYM)
15) Nick Castellanos (CIN)
16) Eddie Rosario (CLE)
17) Whit Merrifield (KC)
18) Starling Marte (MIA)
19) Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR)
20) Jeff McNeil (NYM)
21) Teoscar Hernandez (TOR)
22) Randy Arozarena (TB)
23) Anthony Santander (BAL)
24) Joey Gallo (TEX)
25) Trent Grisham (SD)
26) Ramon Laureano (OAK)
27) Wil Myers (SD)
28) Tommy Pham (SD)
29) Max Kepler (MIN)
30) Byron Buxton (MIN)

Just outside my top 30 but I would not mind drafting: Alex Verdugo (BOS), Ryan Mountcastle (BAL), Dominic Smith (NYM), and Victor Robles (WSH)

Young players with upside I like: Kyle Lewis (SEA) and Dylan Carlson (STL)

Designated Hitter (may have other eligibility)

1) Yordan Alvarez (HOU)
2) J.D. Martinez (BOS)
3) Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)
4) Franmil Reyes (CLE)
5) Jorge Soler (KC)
6) Shohei Ohtani (LAA)
7) Michael Brantley (HOU)
8) Nelson Cruz (MIN)

Starting Pitcher

1) Jacob deGrom (NYM)
2) Gerrit Cole (NYY)
3) Shane Bieber (CLE)
4) Yu Darvish (SD)
5) Walker Buehler (LAD)
6) Max Scherzer (WSH)
7) Jack Flaherty (STL)
8) Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
9) Trevor Bauer (LAD)
10) Lucas Giolito (CWS)
11) Brandon Woodruff (MIL)
12) Tyler Glasnow (TB)
13) Luis Castillo (CIN)
14) Aaron Nola (PHI)
15) Blake Snell (SD)
16) Zach Grienke (HOU)
17) Stephen Strasburg (WSH)
18) Kenta Maeda (MIN)
19) Jose Berrios (MIN)
20) Lance Lynn (CWS)

Just outside my top 20 but I would not mind drafting: Dinelson Lamet (SD), Corbin Burnes (MIL), and Sonny Gray (CIN)

Young players with upside I like: most of the Miami Marlins SPs and Ian Anderson (ATL)

Relief Pitcher

1) Josh Hader (MIL)
2) Liam Hendricks (CWS)
3) Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
4) Raisel Iglesias (LAA)
5) Edwin Diaz (NYM)
6) Will Smith (ATL)
7) Kenley Jansen (LAD)
8) Trevor Rosenthal (OAK)
9) Ryan Pressly (HOU)
10) Brad Hand (WSH)
11) James Karinchak (CLE)
12) Craig Kimbrel (CHC)
13) Taylor Rogers (MIN)
14) Greg Holland (KC)
15) Giovanny Gallegos (STL)
16) Matt Barnes (BOS)
17) Diego Castillo (TB)
18) Rafael Montero (SEA)
19) Richard Rodriguez (PIT)
20) Anthony Bass (MIA)

Dominant Relief Pitchers who might not get saves but I would not mind drafting: Devin Williams (MIL), Amir Garrett (CIN), and Jordan Hicks (STL)

I hope my 2021 Win Daily Sports’ MLB Season-Long Fantasy Draft Guide helps you in your leagues and is not used against me in mine! Best of luck!

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MLB

Best Practices for MLB Season-Long Drafts

Andrew Arbeit
written by Andrew Arbeit

Best Practices for MLB Season-Long Drafts

Howdy! Thank you for checking out my best practices for MLB season-long drafts. If you are like me, a long-suffering New York Mets fan, you spent the offseason rejuvenated by the idea that has been circulated via a meme on Twitter that much like Andy Dufresne in The Shawshank Redemption, we [the Mets fans] have “crawled through a river of shit [The Wilpons] and came out clean on the other side [Steve Cohen]”. To give you an idea the type of fan I am, my son regularly wears my old 1988 NL East Champs t-shirt, my wife has graciously allowed me to keep the seats I purchased from Shea Stadium in 2008 in our backyard despite multiple moves and houses, and my two offseason Mets-related purchases were a Barstool Sports “Uncle Stevie” t-shirt and a Pitching Ninja “Amazin’ Edition” t-shirt.

If you are also like me and live in the northeast, March means winter is ending, the snow is melting, and baseball is fast approaching. It also means that it’s time to figure out your plans for that year’s rendition of season-long fantasy baseball. I’m not even talking about player rankings or draft strategies; I’m talking about just figuring out how many leagues you will play in and when those drafts will be.

Some of these concepts may seem simple and not worth your time – but they are important – and we must start somewhere. In future articles I will go more into the nuts and bolts of season-long fantasy baseball but let us start here for now.

DIVERSIFY

As we all know, DFS is on the rise. The ability to start with a clean slate every day (and not play every day) is extremely appealing. Conversely, it’s not appealing to draft a season-long team that is ravaged by injuries and poor play which effectively ends your fantasy season in May. However, I’m a firm believer that you can enjoy both DFS and season-long fantasy at the same time. The key is diversification. Much like having multiple entries in a DFS contest, I always agree to be in at least three season-long leagues in MLB, NBA, and NFL. I know this may seem time consuming to some, but if you are reading this article you are probably like me and can manage it.

This is especially true since two of my three leagues are “weekly lineup” leagues, so during the week I can afford to only monitor my teams’ performance from afar and partake in waivers, if needed, without feeling any kind of daily grind or pressure in the event life gets in the way. This diversification allows me to be more successful over time, as all my potential profit is not tied up in one league. If I win one of the three leagues, I make money. Even if I don’t win a league, usually if I finish in the money in one or two of the three leagues, I either make money or break even overall. Yes, there are occasional dry spells, but there are also really big highs, like in 2019 (the last full MLB season) where I finished in 1st, 1st, and 2nd in my three MLB season-long leagues.

I believe it’s also important that the leagues you join are fundamentally different. It wouldn’t be enjoyable if each league were exactly the same. One of my leagues is an AL-Only keeper auction 5×5 roto league with 9 keepers, 23 players starting (including 2 catchers) and no bench. Another is a keeper auction head-to-head points league with 3 keepers. The last league is not a keeper league, but I have been in it for 20+ years, it’s usually a daily lineup league, and it has oscillated between roto and head-to-head depending on the year and the number of teams. These differences make each league feel fresh and managing them feels more like a hobby and less like a chore.

DRAFTS

“How do fantasy baseball players keep in contact?” “They touch base every once in a while!” (My website biography warns of “Dad” jokes!)

Being in three leagues also obligates me to being available for three separate drafts. Personally, I enjoy drafting more than most; it never feels like an obligation to me. However, the key to a successful draft is all common sense based: be available (don’t auto-draft) and avoid having multiple drafts at the same day/time. Most leagues try to make the draft as close to the start of the season as possible (so all injuries are known, and opening day rosters are set) but this can lead to fantasy leagues vying for the same prime draft slot.

My advice is to either be the commissioner of the league so you can have final say on scheduling the draft and can avoid conflicts or be vocal early and often with the league and/or the commissioner on your availability. I prefer the latter, as the extra time commitment and headaches the commissioner has to deal with is not worth it to me. Out of my 9 season-long MLB, NBA, and NFL fantasy leagues, I am only the commissioner in 1 and I only became the commissioner to keep the league together and save my friend’s sanity. However, I make myself helpful and indispensable to the commissioners in the other 8 leagues, because I am genuinely a nice guy and because it will usually buy me some draft scheduling preferences.

Once you have your drafts at different days/times, you have set yourself up for success. Each league having its own date/time is a great way to give each league the attention it deserves. However, now I have three separate nights in late-March where my normal routine is altered. For those of you like me with a spouse or a significant other (and young kids), please, please, please, make sure you clear your availability with your partner, and have it marked in your shared Google calendar or old-school written on your refrigerator as soon as your league schedules its draft. I will even mark it as “tentative” in our shared Google calendar to help avoid any surprises and allow for preparation – both actual and mental! Real life fights over fantasy sports don’t help you in real life or in fantasy sports, and you aren’t going to draft a successful team if you don’t have a successful team/situation in your house at the time of the draft.

Lastly, speaking of your house. In pre-COVID-19 times when leagues routinely got together to draft, I learned the hard way a few times that I will do everything in my power to avoid hosting the draft. I love seeing my friends, but I have never been successful in a league in a season where I hosted the draft. You wind up having to spend time actually hosting, which takes away from the key objectives of the draft – compiling an awesome team and making fun of everyone else and their teams! Good luck on choosing your leagues and scheduling your drafts. I hope my best practices for MLB season-long drafts help you.

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