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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather that will likely impact play, and best hitting environments are in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Coors Field and Anaheim.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,100)

He’s the top ace of the day with a fine matchup against the Mets, and will likely be the most popular for cash games. With an obnoxious, almost unheard-of 1.58 FIP and 2.34 ERA in line with his 2.31 XFIP, Burnes is having a historic season. His 12.59 K/9 is amazing, but it’s even more implausible when we consider the 1.82 BB/9 rate. The Mets just got flummoxed by Eric Lauer last night, and now they face a pitcher with a curveball/cutter combo that’s among the best we’ve seen over the past 20 years. Lock him into cash lineups and move on.

Best GPP Play: Robbie Ray ($10,800)

Ray has had two poor starts among his last three, but his regularity in the 45-70 point range this season means he’s the best GPP play on the board against the Twins in Minnesota. We could see some portion of the field move to Burnes given the recency bias of Ray’s last start. The Toronto ace shouldn’t have too many problems with the righty-heavy Twins lineup, and although they hit fastballs well, Ray’s is among the best in baseball. Adam Strangis goes through some of the same rationales in his excellent Starting Rotation article for 9/25, and while that mainly looks at DK pricing, the thought process only affirms itself even more on FD, where you have to choose one pitcher. Ray is the best GPP option considering price and upside.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,000)

He’s a contrarian play based on the other two pitcher I’ve discussed, so if you really want to get different I don’t have a problem with using Lynn in large-field GPPs. For single entry I’d prefer both Burnes and Ray, but Lynn does have some upside in this matchup vs. Cleveland and still boasts ands nice 30-35 point floor because of his solid metrics (3.26 FIP and 27.8% K rate). The mases won’t be on him, so maybe he’s a good pivot in one-third to half your multi-entry lineups.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Francisco Giants

If we can fit these guys, I think today is one of the days we have to play them. Brandon Crawford ($3,900), LaMonte Wade, Jr. ($3,800), Tommy La Stella ($3,600), Brandon Belt ($4,300) and Kris Bryant ($4,300) and Evan Longoria ($3,700) are not cheap, but I’m hoping we can find a way to get a full four-man stack in there with a couple of value plays from the Reds and a two more (one-offs or two-man mini stack). , Mike Yastrzemski ($3,800) is day-to-day after being removed from Friday’s contest with knee soreness, so keep an eye on who starts in the outfield. We may find a player like Alex Dickerson ($2,500) in a good spot at a reduced salary.

GPP Value Stack: Cincinnati Reds

This just feels like a Reds day facing Erick Fedde, and they’ve got good hitting weather, a hittable pitcher, and a lineup peppered with enough value plays that will let us spend at SP without much discomfort. I’m looking at four-man combinations of the following hitters: Joey Votto ($4,100), Nick Castellanos ($3,800), Max Schrock ($2,100), Jonathan India ($3,500), Tucker Barnhart ($2,200), Kyle Farmer ($3,300) and T.J. Friedl ($2,100). And that’s in order of priority.

GPP Value Stack #2: Seattle Mariners

Angels SP Jaime Barria has an xFIP over 5.00, and we have a slew of relatively inexpensive hitters from both sides of the plate who match up well in this spot. Prioritize the 1-5 hitters, especially J.P. Crawford ($3,000), Ty France ($3,000) and Mitch Haniger ($3,600) and mix in guys like Jake Fraley ($2,000) and Abraham Toro ($2,400) if you’re tight on salary.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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This week’s Collector’s Corner takes an early look at some possible 2021 breakouts in the AL – and the trading cards to collect from this bunch.

By now, everyone knows to collect Luis Robert trading cards, but there’s a huge crop of baseball prospects whose trading cards could see a huge bump in 2021 and beyond if they have breakout seasons. Here are nine such players in the AL you should be stocking in your collection.

NOTE: I’m using my Cash/GPP/Punt system again since it translates well to the DFS/trading card investment comparison.

Breakout Trading Cards – Cash

Wander Franco, TB SS

I shouldn’t have to say much about Franco – who’s now the top prospect in baseball – but since he hasn’t played since 2019, he’s flying a bit under the radar.

Franco does everything well and is projected for about 90 games at the major league level in 2021 – a call-up that will immediately cause a bump in his rookie trading cards. You can buy 2019 1st Bowman #BP100 PSA GEM MINT 10 rookies for $100-125 apiece, and parallels and autos – while expensive – remain excellent long-term investments. I’m happy to have a sharp 2020 Bowman Chrome Sapphire #BCP-1 (second year) in my collection, but I’m working on adding some of his rookies.

He’s not slated for a spot in the Rays lineup on day one of the 2021 season, but once he’s here he may be here to stay.

It’s his second year, but I love the look of this card. The Bowman Chrome Sapphire is one of my favorite products.

                                                                                                                        

Ryan Mountcastle, BAL OF

Mountcastle had an auspicious 2020 debut for the Birds, and he did an excellent radio interview where he talks about the transition to the majors and how he fared in his rookie season (“I held my own”). The multi-positional fielder – who played mostly outfield for Baltimore – posted a solid .333/.386/.492 slash line with five homers and a 141 wRC+ in 35 games.

It’s a small smaple, for sure, but I love guys who can play all over the diamond and remain entrenched in the everyday lineup, and Mountcastle is one of those guys. THE BAT, ZIPS and Steamer projections for 2021 all have him hitting over 20 homers with a wRC+ north of 100.

You can pick up graded 2015 rookies for a reasonable price, and he’s a hitter who’ll be smack dab in the middle of a potent group of young hitters, so his 2021 production could well exceed expectations.

Bobby Dalbec, BOS 1B/3B

This guy can mash. He hit eight homers in just 92 ABs for the Red Sox in his 2020 debut, and as a corner infielder he should consistently find a way into the Boston lineup. The 42.4% K rate is a bit disconcerting, but as far as raw power metrics goes, his .338 ISO stands out as an obscene number that points to 40+ HR upside for the 2016 draft pick.

2021 projections from the aforementioned sources are unanimous in assuming 25+ HRs for the upcoming season, and his path to 30+ is only clouded by how often he can make things happen and avoid a prolonged slump at the dish.

A natural third baseman, his 2016 Bowman Chrome Draft rookie trading cards are still dirt cheap, and he’s a solid investment in a huge market city – even if he’s a guy who strikes out almost 200 times in a 15-game season.

This PSA 10 Dalbec in a rare blue refractor parallel auto can be had for less than $1K — a price that could double or triple in value if he has a monster season in Boston.

Breakout Trading Cards – GPP

Andrew Vaughn, CWS 1B

With Robert off the list and getting regular MLB at-bats, Vaughn is now the No. 1 prospect in the White Sox system, and while he’s not expected to start the 2021 season in the majors, he’s just 22 years old slated for a mid-season arrival.

There’s not a clear path to regular playing time in the field just yet, but Vaughn could become the White Sox DH for a large chunk of the 2021 season, which could be a difficult adjustment for someone used to playing the field.

Still – he was so good in big league campo after he was drafted in 2019 that he was almost brought up to the majors in 2020. While his 2019 trading cards are pretty hot, there’s still plenty of room for growth. I really hate the 2019 Bowman design, but that’s his first Bowman card. I did manage to pull a couple of his 2020 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Mojo Refractors, but it’s important I cave and just grab some of his rookies.

My buddy Chris Gilmore over at Vintage Breaks owns this beautiful PSA 10 Vaughn rookie in the 2019 Bowman Sapphire Edition. He shows it off once in a while during his VB South breaks on YouTube.

Jo Adell, LAA OF

Adell didn’t find much success as a rookie outfielder for the Angels in 2020, but he’s still 21 years old and has the tools and talent to bounce back in his sophomore campaign.

He may start the 2021 season in the Triple-A, and there’s a few hard-hitting outfielders who could complicate his return to The Show – but all five-tool prospects are worth some additional development if it increases their confidence. Adell was clearly rushed into the bigs last year – probably because he’s a high-energy guy and they wanted him to play baseball instead of languishing in the pandemic-induced hiatus that may have stunted the growth of an untold number of MLB prospects.

As a result, his 2017 rookie trading cards – even PSA 10s – are very inexpensive for an organizational No. 1. He’s worth adding to your collection and seeing what happens in the coming season.

Sean Murphy, OAK C

Murphy has the offensive and defensive chops to be an All-Star major league catcher for a long time, and we’ve already seen a little of what he’s capable of at the big-league level.

A legitimately great defender at a premium position who looks a lot like a poor man’s Buster Posey when it comes to his pitch-framing and solid bat, Murphy’s 2020 debut was promising – with a .233/.364/.457 slash line, seven HRs and a 132 wRC+ in just 43 games. That stretch earned him 1.5 WAR and an everyday spot in the Athletics’ lineup.

His 2018 Bowman Chrome rookie trading cards are still a huge bargain, and you can pick up a PSA 9 MINT auto rookie for under $100.

Breakout Trading Cards – Punt

Nolan Jones, CLE 3B

Like Dalbec, Jones was drafted in 2016, and his rookie trading cards are also still very affordable. He’s also got immense raw power, as seen by the .213 ISO he posted in 2019 for the team’s Double-A affiliate. Unlike Dalbec, he hasn’t played since 2019 since he wasn’t called up to the bigs.

Jones is now the No. 1 prospect for Cleveland and may or may not get his shot in 2021 – but we’ve seen hitters like him arrive to fill a lineup gap and just never leave. There’s probably less long-term risk involved than Dalbec, but he may not provide immediate dividends.

Evan White, SEA 1B

Kyle Lewis made a huge splash in 2020 and Julio Rodriguez may be ready to arrive by late 2021 or early 2022, but White will be in the Mariners lineup on opening day. His 2017 Bowman Chrome rookie autos are selling (raw) for low prices and PSA 10s can be had in the $100-200 range.

White struggled at the dish as a rookie in 2020 (.176/.252/.346 slash with a 41.6% K rate and just eight dingers in 200+ ABs), but THE BAT and Steamer projections have him improving drastically in 2021; only ZIPS has him hitting fewer than 20 homers with an average under .230.

For $140, this could be a steal if White can make more contact and hit a few more homers in 2021.

Nick Solak, TEX 2B

Big Nick is slated to bate out of the No. 5 slot in the Rangers 2021 lineup, and while he’s on his third organization since being drafted by the Yankees in 2016, his 2020 Topps trading cards earned the RC logo and are very cheap, very good investments.

Solak had a great MLB debut in 2019, took a step back in 2020, and is poised for a big 2021. His rookies have him on the Yankees, so that may not hurt their ability to fetch big prices as much as say 2015 Bowman Draft Mike Yastrzemski rookies in Orioles gear. He’s not a great defender and isn’t going to be a guy who hits 30+ homers or steals 30 bases, but he’s got 20-15 upside and a solid enough bat to move the needle on his trading cards in the next couple of years.

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