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Austin Ekeler

Week 8 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

I’m excited to offer up some of my favorite Week 8 DFS plays for NFL RBs on the main slate, with cash, GPP and some contrarian plays to win you some green!

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Week 8 DFS Running Back – CashGame Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR at SF

DK ($9,200) FD($9,600)

McCaffrey benefits from a week off and continued involvementin all aspects of the Carolina offense, and the absence of Cam Newton means he’llget most of the goal line carries as well. The top RB play in any format – evenagainst a tough 49ers run defense – McCaffrey should see 5-10 targets and score20+ fantasy points even if he doesn’t break out with a monster game.

Saquon Barkley, NYG at DET

DK ($8,900) FD ($8,600)

Barkley checks in at 1B when it comes to fantasy upside forWeek 8. He was a full participant in Thursday’s practice at is coming off aWeek 7 return which saw him net 80 total yards against the Cards. This week, hefaces the second-worst fantasy defense vs. RBs and should have his ay with the Lionsin Detroit’s Ford Field.

Leonard Fournette, JAC at NYJ

DK ($7,800) FD ($7,700)

If you want to save a little cash from the top plays I’drecommend landing on Fournette, who has at least 20 carries (29, 23, 20, 29) ineach of his last four games and regular scores 15-30 fantasy points. Bolsteredby his contributions to the passing game and a great matchup against the Jets,Fournette’s fantasy upside may exceed both Barkley and McCaffrey in Week 8.

Week 8 DFS Running Back – GPPPlays

Todd Gurley, LAR vs. CIN

DK ($7,400) FD ($7,400)

Todd Gurley played just 46-of-75 snaps (60.5%) in the Week7 win over the Falcons, so he’s a considerable risk if he keeps such a low workload.But there’s plenty of upside for the Rams lead back against a Bengals team that’sworst in the league versus fantasy RBs. Malcolm Brown has already been ruledout, so I’ll have plenty of exposure to Gurley with some shares of rookierunning back Darrell Henderson as the complementary option.

Chris Carson, SEA at ATL

DK ($7,000) FD ($8,000)

After three straight 100-yard rushing performances, Carsonwas held in check against a tough Ravens’ defense, but he’s a good bet for asolid bounce-back game facing the Falcons. Don’t overthink this. You’ll be gladyou played him in GPPs as part of your core builds. He’s viable for cash gameson DK and is a better GPP play on FD where his price is a bit elevated.

Chase Edmonds, ARI at NO

DK ($6,200) FD ($6,100)

David Johnson is a game-time decision, but we’re to going tolet that cloud our decision to play Edmonds. Johnson was active vs. the Giantsbut saw just one carry. Edmonds has at least 14 DK points in three games in arow, and although this is a tougher road matchup, he’s on my radar.

Marlon Mack, IND vs. DEN

DK ($6,100) FD ($6,800)

Mack had trouble getting into open space against the Texans,but the passing game was really clicking, so they didn’t need his normal groundand pound approach. He rushed 18 times for 44 yards and caught all three of histargets for 12 more in the Week 7 win and has a better matchup at home vs. theBroncos. I’m not expecting huge ownership levels which makes him a good buy forGPPs.

Derrick Henry, TEN vs. TB

DK ($6,000) FD ($6900)

A usually efficient runner with plenty of upside, Henry didn’t get loose against the Chargers last week but did tally at least 20 carries for the third time in his last four games. With the Titans offense looking better with Ryan Tannehill under center, I’m counting on fewer eight-in-the-box looks against this offense and more of Henry’s emblematic “jailbreak” TD runs against TB.

Also consider: Phillip Lindsay, Tevin Coleman, James White (DK)

Week 8 DFS Running Back – ContrarianGPP Plays

Austin Ekeler, LAC at CHI

DK ($5,900) FD ($6,800)

If this ends up being a negative script game, we could see theChargers using a lot more of Ekeler in space, run or pass, than Gordon. He’shad just one dud so far this season, which was Week 6 against Pittsburgh when everythingwent out the window very early in the Chargers’ game plan. He has two games inhis past three outings with at least seven catches, so I have more interest inDK with the full point PPR, especially with the Bears are among the leagueleaders in receptions allowed to running backs this year with 45.

Nick Chubb, CLE at NE

DK ($6,600) FD ($7,700)

Nick Chubb gets the Patriots this week, who have allowedzero touchdowns to running backs thus far, and very few RBs are even worthstarting in New England. But Chubb is a special back, could get a few catches,and he’ll have very low ownership. I think he might be worth a look inlarge-field GPPs as a contrarian play.

Also consider: Le’Veon Bell, Latavius Murray (if Kamara isout), Joe Mixon

Week 8 DFS Running Back – Value/PuntPlays

Royce Freeman, DEN at IND

DK ($5,500) FD ($5,700)

Freeman is becoming a decent DFs option, especially on DK.He has at least 12 PPR points in each of his past two games against Tennesseeand Kansas City, and he has at least four catches in five of his past sixoutings.

Sony Michel, NE vs. CLE

DK ($5,200) FD ($6,500)

Michel is always risky, especially in PPR, since a lot of thepasses head to WRs and James White. IfRex Burkhead (foot) plays this week, that makes the decision even tougher. ButMichel’s getting more work in this offense and has now scored a touchdown infour of his past six games. He’s also facing a putrid Browns defense this weekthat allows the third-most rushing yards per game at 154.

Ty Johnson, DET vs. NYG

DK ($4,900) FD ($5,200)

Ty Johnson should get most of the touches now that KerryonJohnson is on the IR. He’ll share some of the passing game work with J.D.McKissic, who makes sense as a dart-throw punt in large-field GPPs as well, butwe much prefer TYJ facing a Giants defense that has allowed eight running backsto either score or gain at least 100 total yards this season.

David Montgomery, CHI vs. LAC

DK ($4,400) FD ($5,700)

Montgomery has been an overwhelming bust in 2019, includingthe past two games against Oakland and New Orleans when he rushed for acombined 31 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, adding 3-24-0. If he can getinto an offensive groove and find his feet a bit against the Chargers (a team thatstruggles to stop the run), we could see a breakout.

Additional plays: Tarik Cohen, Devin Singletary, LeSean McCoy

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Week

Touchdown Dance — Pick the Players that will get the most Total TDs

Goal: 2.50, Prize: 2x

I’m going Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette and Chris Carson and taking the lock at 2x, but I feel like two of these guys are going to get two TDs each, so the 20x bet is awful tempting.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Week Five Running Back Breakdown

Allan Fabrykant 5 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

This report will provide NFL DFS running back options for the Week Five 12-game main slate. Running backs will be broken down into three tiers, high, mid, and low. I will also include punt plays.

High Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) ($9100 FD|$8700 DK)

The King keeps the top spot for RB’s once again at no surprise. Christian McCaffrey is leading the league in rush yards (411) and third best in the passing game (218). The Jaguars are allowing just under 100 rushing yards per game and have been extremely efficient defensively in the red zone. They are allowing opponents to score at a 46% clip which is top 10 in the league. Despite the Jags success on defense they still allow over four yards per carry and they haven’t faced a supreme talent like CMC this season. The Panthers will continue to rely heavily on their All-Pro running back.

NFL DFS Running Back: Dalvin Cook (MIN) ($8200 FD|$8400 DK)

Dalvin Cook struggled last week against a top defensive unit which can be attributed to the offenses inability to push the ball down field through the air. The Vikings get a far better matchup here against a Giants defense that has allowed an average of 110 yards per game on the ground. Once the Vikings are in the red zone they are scoring at a 70% clip. Dalvin Cook isn’t far behind CMC, he has rushed for 410 yards and 127 receiving yards. Cook should come in at high ownership in Week Five.

NFL DFS Running Back: Austin Ekeler (LAC) ($7200 FD|$6700 DK)

Melvin Gordon is back in the picture for the Chargers but it seems HC Anthony Lynn is in no rush to hand a big workload over to him for now. I can’t say I blame him, Austin Ekeler leads the league in receiving yards for all RB’s (270) and touchdowns (6). The Broncos have been terrible against the run. They allow the fourth most fantasy points to RB’s per game (29) and rank 30th in terms of yards per game (149). I won’t be overweight here just due to the situation but Ekeler is still a top fantasy option in Week Five.

NFL DFS Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) ($8800 FD|$8300 DK)

Zeke Elliott is back on the main slate this week and should be a big part of the Cowboys game plan. After a nice start to the season, the Packers defense has fallen back to reality. They are allowing over 140 rushing yards on the ground but have been very efficient defending the pass. Dallas offensive line of course ranks in the top five in league, they are allowing their RB’s to average over 4.60 yards per carry. Elliott is currently averaging 16 FPTS per game but i expect his best performance yet in Week Five.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara (NOS) ($8200 FD|$8600)

Mid Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: David Johnson (ARI) ($6800 FD|$7500 DK)

If you read my Monday Night Football guide, and watched the game in Week Four, then you know all about the Bengals defense and their struggles against the run. The Bengals got smoked by James Conner who ended up with 125 all-purpose yards (83 through the air). David Johnson gets the same matchup in Week Five against a Bengals team coming off a short week. Johnson has 355 total yards (182 through the air) and is averaging over 18 FPTS per game. He will be heavily relied on once again in Week Five as the Cardinals rank bottom five in the league in offensive pass protection (10% sack rate).

NFL DFS Running Back: Leonard Fournette (JAX) ($6900 FD|$6400 DK)

Leonard Fournette is coming off of a monster 225 yard game on the ground against the Broncos and will face a Panthers defense that also struggles defending the run. They are allowing over 4.70 yards per carry to RB’s and Fournette is averaging nearly six yards per touch. It is noteworthy that Jacksonville has struggled in run blocking but given Carolina’s struggles in the trenches I have to give the Jaguars the edge here. Fournette is now third in the league with 404 rushing yards, big thanks to his performance in Denver.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones (GBP) ($6800 FD|$5900), Joe Mixon ($7100 FD|$6100 DK).

Low Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: James White (NEP) ($6200 FD|$5000 DK)

It is a bit difficult to pin point where Bill Belichick is going to go with the football, especially with his three man duo of Michel, White, and Burkhead. Sony Michel is also viable here but I tend to favor White, especially on DK with the PPR upside. The Redskins just allowed Wayne Gallman Jr. over 100 all-purpose yards and two TD’s. They rank bottom five in the league, allowing over 147 yards per game on the ground.

NFL DFS Running Back: David Montgomery (CHI) ($5700 FD|$5200 DK)

I’m not particularly crazy about this play but this week is pretty thin in terms of value at the position. Chicago’s offensive line has not been great with run blocking, they are only averaging 3.1 yard per carry. Montgomery has yet to top 100 yards in a game and will face an Oakland defense that is right in the middle of the pack, allowing over 100 yards per game on the ground.

Punts: Devonta Freeman ($6200 FD|$5300 DK)

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week 5 GPP Picks Of Destiny from DFS Pro David Jones

Phil Naessens 5 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Week 5 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

David also won back-to-back GPPs!

There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Deshaun Watson ($8,000 FD)

I am expecting a lot of fireworks in this game. The Atlanta Falcons have looked terrible and they have had a relatively easy schedule. Watson is a dual threat QB, which I love. He has rushed for one touchdown in three of his four games. He has thrown for three touchdowns in two games and zero touchdowns in two games. The Falcons lost safety Keanu Neal for the season and should be more susceptible to the long ball here. Watson missed both Hopkins and Fuller on wide open deep shots last week and this week I expect him to be more accurate. Hopkins is currently ranked ninth in the NFL in receptions and 14th in targets in 2019. Will Fuller has not had his breakout game yet, but this is the week (more on him below)! If both Hop and Fuller get in the end zone I would not be surprised. Out of the Top Five DFS NFL quarterbacks, he will be my top guy.

Stud Quarterback Pivots: Dak Prescott

Mid Quarterback: Matt Ryan ($7,700 FD)

The Falcons are in desperation mode and I expect them to come out on Sunday and force the pass (because that is the only thing they have going for their offense). Matty Ice faces a Houston Texans team that is ranked 21st overall in total pass defense. They have given up 1,036 yards in the air and five touchdowns in four games. Ryan has seven touchdowns on the season and the second most yards in the NFL (1,250) in the first four games. Last week he scored 15.68 FD points, and that was without a single touchdown. There is a ton of pressure coming from the Falcons’ front office (and fans) right now and I am looking for an offensive “bounce-back”. Pair him with Julio, Ridley and/or Hooper and let’s hope the Birds all but abandon the lackluster run game and hang with the Texans. The Falcons and Matt Ryan are one of my favorite NFL DFS stacks this week.

Mid Quarterback Pivot: Tom Brady ($7,600 FD) Either him or the running backs are going to break out vs the TERRIBLE Redskins.

Running Backs

Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($9,100 FD)

He comes in as the overall most expensive player in the NFL DFS pool this week but he has earned it. If the Panthers are going to have a chance to win, it is pretty much on this guy’s back. He is getting more opportunities than anyone in the league right now. With Cam going down, Riverboat Ron is leaning even more on CMC. He has 367 all-purpose yards the past two games. He should get easily over 20 carries and be treated like a WR1. The Jags have been middle of the road when it comes to rush defense, but they have only played two teams with legit running threats (Titans and Broncos). CMC is certainly their toughest competition to date. I will take him over the Jags rush D any day.

Stud Pivots: Dalvin Cook Very high on him as well, Ezekiel Elliot

Mid RB: David Johnson ($6,800 FD)

The Bengals are the sixth worst team against the run so far this year. They have given up 575 yards and five touchdowns. In the passing game goes, Cincy has given up 973 yards and eight passing touchdowns, which is the seventh worst in the NFL. David Johnson is going to have the opportunity to run and catch passes here. The last two games D.J. has been targeted an astounding 20 times through the air for 117 yards and one touchdown. Johnson has not been a top tier RB this year, but he has not been bad, contrary to popular belief. His price keeps dropping and he has over 15 FD points in three of his four games. That will work. At only $6,800 he makes a great NFL DFS play for me this week against a bad (like always) Bengals team.

Mid Pivot: Sony Michel

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Julio Jones ($8,200 FD)

Matt Ryan should force feed arguably the league’s top receiver. A lot of the reasons I wrote for Ryan stand true for “Jet” Jones. The Falcons should just focus on what they are good at, the passing game. Jones already has four touchdowns, which is tied for first in the NFL. He has two games over 100 yards so far and should be in store for another one here. He averages 13.8 yards per catch and has 23 receptions on the season. He is my favorite NFL DFS receiver in Week Five.

Stud Pivots: DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Michael Thomas

Mid WR: Tyler Boyd (6,700 FD)

John Ross is doubtful this week, which should funnel more passes towards Tyler Boyd. In the first three games he was targeted over 10 times in each (and that was with John Ross going nuclear). The Arizona Cardinals have given up the second most touchdowns to pass catchers this year (10) and the ninth most yards (1,084). On a week when Tyler Eifert is going to be chalk, I really like the position pivot to Boyd (or using both). Last season Boyd scored far more touchdowns at home (six home, one away), and this was with A.J. Green on the field half of the time. Boyd gets in the end zone this week at a great NFL DFS price.

Mid WR Pivots: Alshon Jeffrey, Josh Gordon

Update: Removed Edelman, added MVS and Tate

Value WR: Will Fuller ($5,700 FD)

I am going back to Fuller this week one last time. His price is just too cheap and he gets a nice matchup at home against the Atlanta Falcons (mentioned under Watson). You don’t get points for air yards, but Will Fuller is 12th amongst wide receivers so far this year. Watson will look at Hopkins first, as he should, but the next most trusted guy is Fuller. It also helps that Kenny Stills is dealing with a hamstring injury and may not play. The Falcons have given up seven TDs to wide receivers so far, and I am thinking they give up a handful more this week.

WR Value Pivots: D.J. Chark, Calvin Ridley

Tight End

Tight End: Tyler Eifert ($4,600 FD)

The Cardinals are terrible against the tight end. Every single week the TE scores at least one touchdown. Tyler Eifert is going to be very popular in NFL DFS because of this, but targeting the Cards has worked every week so I am not going to get off it here. He is wayyy too cheap to not use him in a lineup or two.

Tight End Pivots: Austin Hooper, Zach Ertz

Update: Evan Engram

Defense

Patriots
Titans

Update: Removed Oakland Punt. Just pay up for Pats

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week Four: Touches and Targets Outlooks

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Four 12-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.

High Tier

NFL DFS WR: Julio Jones (ATL) ($8300 FD|$7800 DK)

76% Snap Share. 30 Targets, 19 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Four TDs.

It’s been a different year for Julio Jones in terms of red zone production. He was always the receiver to get a ton of catches and yards but minimal scoring upside just because of how he was used in the red zone in years past. Jones already has half his 2018 TD total (four) through three games. I have a lot of stock invested in him this week and expect a big game.

NFL DFS WR: Keenan Allen (HOU) ($8100 FD|$7600 DK)

94% Snap Share. 42 Targets (36% share), 29 receptions, 14 yards per reception, One TD.

Keenan Allen has been a top fantasy asset the first three weeks this season and he gets an easily exploitable matchup against the tanking Miami Dolphins. Keenan Allen leads all receivers in receptions, total yards, and completed air yards. He averaging the second most FPTS per game through three weeks, averaging 30 per game. Allen once again comes in as a clear cut top fantasy option in Week Four and should be considered in all formats.

NFL DFS TE: Travis Kelce (K.C.) ($7600 FD|$7200 DK)

84% Snap Share. 25 Targets, 17 Receptions, 17 yards per reception, One TDs.

As I’m sure everyone has heard the stat by now, Patrick Mahomes averaged over 495 yards per game and 4.75 TDs through four indoor college games. It seems like a stat that really shouldn’t be considered because we are comparing college and NFL but Mahomes proves week in and week out just how talented he is. Travis Kelce gets a decent size advantage in this weeks matchup and should see plenty of targets. I’m going to overlook Detroit’s blanket coverage against Zach Ertz in Week Three due to all the injuries at the receiver position the Eagles had. K.C. has plenty of weapons to draw attention away from Kelce so he presumably is in a better spot than the Eagles and Ertz were.

NFL DFS RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) ($8900 FD|$8700 DK)

100% Snap Share, 21 Targets, 15 Receptions for 132 yards, 59 carries for 318 yards, 6 yards per touch, Three TDs.

It looks like it’s going to be another 28-30 touch day for Christian McCaffrey on Sunday. The Panthers take on the Texans who are allowing over five yards per carry to running backs. Ron Rivera has voiced this week the importance of establishing the run and rolling out a balanced offense. This was the key to Kyle Allen’s success in Week Three vs. the Arizona Cardinals and expect an identical game plan against the Texans.

NFL DFS RB: Austin Ekeler (LAC) ($8100 FD|$8000 DK)

75% Snap Share, 20 Targets, 19 Receptions, 38 carries for 160 yards, 6 yards per touch, Four TDs.

Justin Jackson is out this and week the Chargers are expecting Melvin Gordon to play. I can’t see Gordon coming back this week and hogging a ton of work from Austin Ekeler. I still expect the Chargers to use Ekeler predominantly in his pass catching role and can only see Gordon getting seven to 10 touches on Sunday.

Mid Tier

NFL DFS WR: Cooper Kupp (LAR) ($7000 FD|$6500 DK)

95% Snap Share. 31 Targets, 23 Receptions, 12 yards per reception, Two TDs.

Jared Goff’s favorite receiver, at home, with one of the best matchups on the slate. Goff had 12 more TD passes and over 900 more yards at home compared to on the road in 2018. Cooper Kupp is seeing nearly 30% of all targets come his way, the fifth best in the league.

NFL DFS WR: Sammy Watkins (K.C.) ($6900 FD|$6700 DK)

89% Snap Share. 32 Targets, 20 Receptions, 15 yards per reception, Three TDs.

Outside of Kelce, Sammy Watkins is likely where I will go for a team stack. Watkins is second in the league with 311 receiving yards and is seeing a target share of 28%.

NFL DFS RB: Kerryon Johnson (DET) ($6500 FD|$5400 DK)

62% Snap Share. 48 carries, 126 rushing yards, Two TDs.

It has been a disappointing campaign three weeks in for Kerryon Johnson who is averaging just 2.2 YPC. The Lions will need to establish the run to compliment their balanced passing offense and this is the perfect spot for Johnson to get into rhythm against a Chiefs defense that is allowing runners to average 6.2 YPC.

NFL DFS RB: Leonard Fournette (JAC) ($6400 FD|$6000 DK)

98% Snap Share. 43 carries,179 yards, 14 Receptions, 4.8 yards per touch, Zero TDs.

I know a few people have mentioned Fournette and I am okay with the play in large field tourneys. He just hasn’t impressed like I thought he would this season. If Gardner Minshew is able to maintain what he has been doing it may open up things for Fournette in the run.

NFL DFS WR: Tyler Lockett (SEA) ($6800 FD|$4600 DK)

96% Snap Share. 28 Targets, 22 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, Two TDs.

Tyler Lockett is off to a great start this season. He is averaging 20 FPTS per game and will continue to get a vast majority of looks from Russell Wilson.

NFL DFS WR: Terry McLaurin (WSH) ($6300 FD|$4500 DK)

95% Snap Share. 24 Targets, 16 Receptions, 16 yards per reception, Three TDs.

The Giants are coming in at very high ownership and the Redskins aren’t getting a lot of love. DFS pundits have attacked the Giants defense for three weeks and are suddenly off of them. I like the Redskins receivers as a way a leverage play. The Giants are putrid defending the pass, allowing over 330 yards a game which is the worst in the NFL.

NFL DFS WR: Sterling Shepard (WSH) ($6300 FD|$4500 DK)

100% Snap Share. 16 Targets, 13 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, One TD.

This side of the Giants game will be the some of the biggest chalk on the slate. Understandably so, the Redskins just got torched by a questionable Bears offense at home and are giving up over 450 yards per game. I’m not crazy about eating this Giants chalk after one week of Daniel Jones, but it would be wise to come close to what the field is projecting in terms of ownership.

Low Tier

NFL DFS WR: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) ($5900 FD|$5600 DK)

100% Snap Share. 31 Targets, 18 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Two TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Christian Kirk (ARI) ($5100 FD|$5900 DK)

99% Snap Share. 32 Targets, 20 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, Zero TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Paul Richardson Jr. (WSH) ($4700 FD|$3700 DK)

85% Snap Share. 19 Targets, 15 Receptions, 9 yards per reception, Two TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Marvin Jones Jr. (DET) ($5900 FD|$5400 DK)

88% Snap Share. 19 Targets, 15 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, One TDs.

NFL DFS TE: Will Dissly (SEA) ($5400 FD|$3600 DK)

55% Snap Share. 14 Targets, 12 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, Three TDs.

NFL DFS RB: Josh Jacobs (OAK) ($6000 FD|$5100 DK)

53% Snap Share. 45 carries, 220 yards, Two TDs.

NFL DFS RB: Devonta Freeman (ATL) ($5000 FD|$6200 DK)

68% Snap Share. 35 Targets, 129 yards, 9 catches, 62 yards, Zero TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Zach Pascal (IND) ($5400 FD|$4500 DK)

**T.Y. Hilton likely out

45% Snap Share. 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, One TD.

NFL DFS RB: Wayne Gallman Jr. (NYG) ($5800 FD|$4500 DK)

Gallman’s stats aren’t worth mentioning for 2019 because Saquon Barkley gets everything when he is healthy. Expect 15-20 touches for Gallman and a ton of ownership.

NFL DFS WR: Dontrelle Inman (LAC) ($4800 FD|$3000 DK)

44% snap share, 6 Targets, 3 Receptions, zero TDs.

Dontrelle Inman is now in play with Mike Williams and Travis Benjamin out. His snap share and target rate are almost certain to go up with him running in the two slot.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week 4 GPP Picks Of Destiny from DFS Pro David Jones

5 years ago

written by

Week 4 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

David also won back-to-back GPPs!

Check back for updates closer to lineup lock on Sunday.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes ($9,200 FD; $7,500 DK)

I might just keep him as my number one all season. Since Tyreek Hill went down Mahomes has made stars out of his emerging receivers in Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman while rejuvenating vet Sammy Watkins. Mahomes has not scored less than 27 FanDuel points in the first three games (Jags, Ravens and Raiders). This week the Chiefs head to the undefeated Detroit Lions home field to crash the party. On paper the Lions D has looked fine, mostly because they have not been losing games, however they have not had stiff competition. Week One they got rookie Kyler Murray, Week Two they got a flat Chargers squad and last week they took on the Eagles who were depleted on offense. The Chiefs are going to break these Lions hearts quick in their home dome. Mahomes has 10 touchdowns so far this season and he should be able to add at least another two or three this Sunday. He is as safe as it gets at quarterback and is going to win a lot of people a lot of NFL DFS money this season.

Stud Quarterback Pivots: Lamar Jackson, DeShaun Watson

Mid Quarterback: Russell Wilson ($7,800 FD; $6,100 DK)

Well I wish that Wilson wouldn’t have gone off last week because now his ownership will be higher, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t in an elite spot. We can’t just fade him because he is popular. The Arizona Cardinals just gave up 38 points the Carolina Panthers, led by Kyle Allen. The Cards have given up about 300 yards and four touchdowns to the tight end position alone in three games (see Will Dissly below). I do tend to like Wilson better at home but the matchup is a little too good to ignore. I also like that Wilson isn’t afraid to run the ball and that Chris Carson is struggling with fumbles and with breaking tackles this year. Pete Carroll should focus on the passing attack here and that is going to benefit Wilson, the receivers and the tight end. The icing on the cake will be if Wilson vultures a touchdown from Carson in the Red Zone.

Mid Quarterback Pivot: Jared Goff

Punt Quarterback: Kyle Allen: ($6,800 FD; $5,200 DK)

Kyle Allen is going to get the start against the Houston Texans with Cam Newton still banged up. There is talk that if Allen continues to perform than he can officially take the job from Newton. That is all yet to be seen, but what we do know is Allen is getting another chance against the Texans defensive backs who are getting beat constantly. Last week they couldn’t hang with Keenan Allen who got 183 yards and two touchdowns. They have given up five touchdowns to receivers so far this season and are allowing opposing QBs to complete 70% of their passes. I do not expect Allen to throw another four touchdowns again this week, but I think he hits value. If you love paying up at the other positions you can pair him with Moore, Samuel, McCaffrey or Olsen in your Carolina Panthers NFL DFS stacks.

Punt Quarterback Pivot: Daniel Jones

Running Backs

Stud RB: Austin Ekeler ($8,100 FD; $8,000 DK)

He goes against the Miami Dolphins this Sunday. Ekeler has been one of the most impressive duel threat backs early in the NFL season. News just dropped that Melvin Gordon will join the team again, however he is not playing this week. Ekeler is going to get one last shot to start in this offense and make a case for more playing time once Gordon does get back on the field. He can not ask for a better matchup. The Dolphins can’t stop the run or the pass and Ekeler contributes in both. He has over six targets in the passing game every week and four total touchdowns. He has actually gotten more yards in each game as a receiver this season than a running back. Ekeler did not get in the endzone last game against the Houston Texans but this week he does it, at least once.

Stud Pivot: Christian McCaffrey

Mid RB: Marlon Mack ($7,300 FD; $6,100 DK)

Mack gets to lead the Colts backfield against the Oakland Raiders. Last week Mack only got 16 carries but was a bit limited with a calf injury. He was still able to get 4.6 yard per carry and found his way in the end zone. He struggled the week prior vs the Titans, but they have a very good defensive line (they have not given up a rushing TD this season). The first week Mack rushed for 174 yards and a touchdown vs the L.A. Chargers. I like the fact that the game is at home and I expect the Colts to be winning. If they are, that means Mack likely contributed. He will also be in charge of running down the clock in the fourth. I like the opportunity, price and upside for him this week.

Mid Pivots: Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Chris Carson

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Keenan Allen ($8,100 FD; $7,600 DK)

What is there to say. The Chargers play the Miami Dolphins that have given up NIVE receiving touchdowns in only three games. Allen has gotten targeted over 10 times in every game this season and has an astounding 403 yards and three touchdowns. This is an elite matchup that is highly unlikely to fail. I don’t mind playing him and Ekeler in the same lineup. Punting Rivers with the two of them would make sense in NFL DFS.

Stud Pivots: DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, TY Hilton (if healthy)

Mid WR: Tyler Lockett ($6,600 FD; $6,300 DK)

His price is wayyyyy too cheap. The Cardinals let Kyle Allen throw four touchdowns on them last week, Lamar Jackson threw two the week before that and Matt Stafford threw three in Week One. Lockett has 14 and 12 targets the past two weeks and two touchdowns in the first three games. He is Russell Wilson’s favorite target. Lockett is a speedster that should have no trouble getting behind this Cardinals’ defense. I like paring Wilson with him and Dissly (or Metcalf) in my NFL DFS Seattle stacks.

Mid WR Pivots: Kupp/Woods, Golladay, Watkins/Robinson

Value WR: Sterling Shepard ($6,500 FD; $5,800 DK)

Shepard is healthy and now seems to have a more competent quarterback in Danny Dimes. Daniel Jones targeted him nine times in his first start, and will now need to focus even more on the passing game with Saquan Barkley going down. Shepard’s price is simply too cheap for being a highly used wide receiver one especially since he is going vs the Red Skins’ defense. Every Quarterback they have faced this season has throw for exactly three touchdowns. If it isn’t Shepard, then it should be Engram. A great matchup for a cheap price is a fantastic NFL DFS play.

WR Value Pivots: Cole Beasley, Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, Josh Gordon

Tight End

Stud TE: Evan Engram ($6,800 FD; $5,700 DK)

A lot of the same reasons I listed about Sterling Shepard apply to Evan Engram. He is constantly producing and has over 100 yards twice this season and two touchdowns. They play the Washington Redskins.

Stud TE Pivot: Travis Kelce

Value TE: Will Dissly ($5,400 FD; $3,600 DK)

The Cardinals are getting destroyed by tight ends. They have given up four touchdowns and about 300 yards in three games to the TE position. The Seahawks’ Will Dissly has three touchdowns in the past two games. The Seahawks also just traded away their backup tight end. It seems like the perfect NFL DFS scenario. All we need is for Pete Carroll to attack what works against this defense and not try and reinvent the wheel.

Defense

Chargers
Rams
Baltimore
Colts

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Week Four Running Back Breakdown

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide NFL DFS running back options for the Week Four 12-game main slate. Running backs will be broken down into three tiers, high, mid, and low. I will also include punt plays.

High Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) ($9000 FD|$8800 DK)

Christian McCaffrey will be a great option on a week to week basis all season long. He gets another solid matchup against a Texans defense that is allowing runners to average 5.4 yards per carry. CMC has seen 59 carries for 318 yards, 15 receptions for 132 yards, and 12 red zone touches for three touchdowns through three games this season. He always carries a heavy work load with his versatility and power and nothing should change in Week Four.

NFL DFS Running Back: Dalvin Cook (MIN) ($8300 FD|$8300 DK)

Dalvin Cook is off to a hot start and I couldn’t be happier. He is one of my favorite fantasy assets and now that he is healthy I think we can consider him week in and out with top names like CMC and Saquon Barkley. Cook has a league leading 375 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Minnesota is averaging an excellent 5.6 yards per carry and only second fiddle to the Ravens, averaging 193 rushing yards per game. Cook and the Vikings get a tough matchup this week at Soldier Field and the Bears are a top unit against the run, but something has to give right? The low implied total and close spread in this game has me all over Cook. The Vikings have clearly made a huge change on offensive (Gary Kubiak) and have followed through with their commitment to the run. Start Cook with peace of mind knowing he will be in for another big work load.

NFL DFS Running Back: Austin Ekeler (LAC) ($8100 FD|$8000 DK)

If you had a chance to read my breakdown last week then you know that I wasn’t a fan of the Ezekiel Elliott Play. Even though he had 125 yards rushing, he only had 18.9 FPTS on DK. Considering how much you had to spend for him, it wasn’t the best return. I have come to find myself trying to get away from these ridiculous spreads against the Dolphins but it is wise to cover yourself and I do not warrant a full fade, ever. While I am not pleased with his salary on either site, Austin Ekeler presents excellent PPR upside and has big play capability. Ekeler leads all running backs at 208 receiving yards on 19 receptions and has carried 38 times for 160 yards. The Chargers are averaging 5.2 yards per carry and the Dolphins are allowing 5.6 yards per carry. They also allow over 200 rushing yards per game, the worst in the NFL. I can see Justin Jackson being more utilized if this game is to get away from Miami quickly but I still think Ekeler’s floor is pretty safe here.

Mid Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Marlon Mack (IND) ($7300 FD|$6100 DK)

Despite coming into Week Three’s matchup against the Falcons with a calf injury, Marlon Mack still managed to rush 16 times for 74 yards and one TD. He is not on the injury report this week and gets a great matchup against the Raiders at home. The Colts have been excellent on the ground with nearly 150 yards rushing per game at a 4.9 yard clip. Mack should able to replicate Dalvin Cook’s 110 yard, one TD outing against the Raiders last week. Big boost to Marlon Mack staying off the injury report.

NFL DFS Running Back: Mark Ingram (BAL) ($7800 FD|$6600 DK)

There is not a ton of appeal in the mid-range RB selection so this one may be a little bit of a reach. I don’t typically like to target AFC North division games, but I think after some of the questionable play calling by the Ravens staff last week will have them rethink their commitment to the run. Ingram has been excellent through his first three weeks, rushing 43 times for 257 yards and 6 receptions for 62 yards. He leads all NFL backs with 5 touchdowns.

Honorable Mention: Kerryon Johnson (DET) ($6500 FD|$5400), David Johnson ($6800 FD|$6800 DK).

Low Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Wayne Gallman Jr. (NYG) ($5800 FD|$4600 DK)

Wayne Gallman Jr. is filling in for Saquon Barkley and will likely be heavy chalk this week, particularly on DK. The Redskins, as we all know have been atrocious to passing and rushing. They are giving up an average of 142 yards per game on the ground and will have to play in New York after a very rough outing against the Bears. I expect this game to be back and forth and high scoring because of poor defense on both teams so I am fine with the Gallman Jr. chalk if you need someone in this range.

NFL DFS Running Back: Devonta Freeman (ATL) ($6200 FD|$5000 DK)

Well, we finally got a somewhat decent performance last week out of Devonta Freeman. He carried 16 times for 88 yards and had three catches for seven yards. This doesn’t scream “play me” but he is obviously making strides and he will have a big game at some point. The Falcons face the Titans who are giving up 119 yards per game on the ground at a 4.8 yard clip.

NFL DFS Running Back: Justin Jackson (LAC) ($6200 FD|$4100 DK)

I don’t really care for Justin Jackson’s price on FD, but I will consider him on DK. Jackson has 18 carries at a 6.8 yard clip. In the event the Chargers get far ahead early against the lowly Dolphins, Jackson could see an uptick in snaps and could easily pay off his $4100 DK salary.

Punts: Outside of the plays I listed above I really have no interest.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Week Two Running Back Breakdown

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

This report will provide NFL DFS running back options for the Week Two 13-game main slate. Running backs will be broken down into three tiers, high, mid, and low. I will also include punt plays.

High Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Alvin Kamara (NOS) ($8700 FD|$8200 DK)

Kamara only saw two red zone snaps in Week One but still ran for 97 yards on 13 attempts against the Texans. He also reeled in seven receptions for 72 yards and no touchdowns. Outside of a 30-yard touchdown run, Latavius Murray didn’t really cut into Kamara’s workload. The Rams were not good against the run last year and it seems as if nothing has changed. The Rams allowed CMC a massive 128 yards rushing on 19 attempts. He also scored two touchdowns and had 10 receptions for 81 yards. Cam Newton was hampered in Week One so that may attribute to McCaffrey’s huge workload, but Kamara is probably the most similar to CMC in regards to how he is used in the offense.

NFL DFS Running Back: Saquon Barkley (NYG) ($9200 FD|$9200 DK)

Like I said last week, I feel like I have to talk about Barkley on any slate that he’s on. He faces the Bills in Week Two after rushing for 120 yards on 11 carries and four receptions for 19 yards in week one against the highly touted Cowboy’s defense. He gets a presumably easier matchup this week against the Bills, who held Le’veon Bell to 3.5 yards per carry. In 2018, Buffalo ranked in the top half of the league in terms of run defense but still allowed an average of 113 yards per game. This game will be closer for the Giants (backed by -2 spread) so I fully expect Barkley to have more usage in this week two matchup.

NFL DFS Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) ($8500 FD|$8700 DK)

Elliott saw a significant reduction to his role in Week One against the Giants. That was something to be expected after his holdout while he awaited a new contract with the Cowboy’s and the fact that Dak Prescott came out with a four TD performance. I do not believe he will be back to his full share this week as he saw 53% of snaps and carried the ball 13 times for 53 yards and a TD in Week One. He has a hefty tag to pay for a perceived capped ceiling, but faces a Redskins defense that just lost their most valuable asset for the next two weeks and gave up 123 rushing yards to the Eagles in Week One. If the game script falls in Elliott’s favor and Dak is inefficient in any way, Zeke should be the one to benefit.

Mid Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Derrick Henry (TEN) ($7000 FD|$5800 DK)

The Titans defense had the perfect game plan in Week One. They frustrated Baker Mayfield with constant pressure, never allowing him in to get into rhythm and force his throws. Derrick Henry benefited from this and rushed 19 times for 84 yards. He also had one reception for 75 yards and a TD. Henry has a 5.7 yard per carry average against the Colts and the games that he didn’t he was either hurt or in his rookie season. He is facing a Colts defense that just gave up 154 all-purpose yards to Austin Ekeler. No, Henry does not present the same PPR upside as Ekeler does, but I feel he always gets overlooked because of his size. Make no mistake, Henry is extremely fast and powerful and will be a huge part of this Tennessee offense this season.

NFL DFS Running Back: Leonard Fournette (JAC) ($6900 FD|$6300 DK)

The Houston Texans were a Top Five defense against the run last season but surrendered nearly 150 yards and over seven yards per carry on the ground against the Saints on Monday Night Football. Clowney was a big part of what made the Houston defense special and now that piece is gone. Fournette saw an 88% snap share but only carried the ball 13 times and reeled in four receptions for 96 all-purpose yards in Week One, mostly due in part to the fact that the Chiefs did what the Chiefs do and pulled ahead early, forcing Jacksonville to throw the ball. We still get Fournette at a pretty fair price considering the upside and Gardner Minshew will likely not be able to replicate 22 for 25 and two TD’s. I expect Leonard to live up to the expectations in Week Two.

NFL DFS Running Back: Josh Jacobs (OAK) ($6500 FD|$4700 DK)

I guess Jon Gruden wasn’t kidding when he said how much he liked his rookie running back. Josh Jacobs saw 23 carries for 85 rushing yards and two TDs. Eight of those attempts were in the red zone. With limited resources on offense I have to imagine Jacobs is going to see a hefty workload week in and week out. K.C. appeared “okay” against the run against the Jags in Week One but the way the game played out had the Jaguars throwing the ball a ton. I still have no faith in this Chiefs run defense, as they were one of the worst last season. Jacobs is hard to fade at $4700 on DK considering his upside and usage.

NFL DFS Running Back: Austin Ekeler (LAC) ($7500 FD|$6100 DK)

Justin Jackson virtually had no effect on Ekeler in Week One. Ekeler saw an 81% snap share and scampered in three TDs in an impressive performance where he rushed for 58 yards on 12 carries and had 96 yards on six receptions. He seems to be in line for a consistent and hefty workload with his shiftiness and the fact that he provides an easy outlet for Rivers. I’m not a fan of his price on FD at $7500 but I can swallow $6100 on DK.

Honorable mention: Kerryon Johnson ($6600 FD|$5700 DK), Sony Michel ($6800 FD|$6200 DK), Mark Ingram ($7500 FD|$6000 DK)

Ingram is dealing with sore ribs going into week two. I don’t think this is a big deterrent but I do question the Ravens and their thoughts on preserving their All-Pro running back for more meaningful games down the stretch (Playing at K.C. Week Three). Maybe look to Gus Edward’s ($5200 FD|$3200 DK) as a very low owned pivot. He saw the second highest red zone touch count in week one, as well as the highest snap count on the team.

Low Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Devin Singletary (BUF) ($5700 FD|$4200 DK)

Devin Singletary carried a 75% snap share in Week One. His ability in run blocking schemes is unmatched so he will always see more snaps than veteran Frank Gore. Singletary was efficient in his first start, carrying four times for 70 yards and tacked on five receptions for 28 yards. Singletary is going to see more work as the season progresses so he remains in my player pool for Week Two against a very weak front seven in New York.

NFL DFS Running Back: Duke Johnson Jr. (HOU) ($6100 FD|$5000 DK)

Duke was solid in his first start as a Houston Texan. He amassed 57 rushing yards on nine carries and 33 yards on four receptions. My only real concern is Carlos Hyde cutting into the workload but Duke still saw a 71% snap share in week one.

Punts: Matt Breida ($5600 FD|$5200 DK), Malcolm Brown ($5500 FD|$4100 DK), Chris Thompson ($5300 FD|$3900 DK).

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Week One Running Back Breakdown

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide NFL DFS running back options for the Week One 12-game main slate. I will have three tiers, high, mid, and low. I will recommend two backs per tier.

High Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) ($8900 FD|$8800 DK)

CMC had a very nice campaign last season, totaling 1,098 rushing yards on 219 attempts and 107 receptions (124 targets) for 867 yards. He ended the season with 13 total touchdowns (seven rushing, six receiving). He will face one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL in 2018, The L.A. Rams. The Rams allowed an average of 122 rushing yards per game last season and they didn’t do much this off -season to improve their run defense. CMC is handling a 94.5% snap share and is the number one RB in the league in terms of targets. He is a Top Five running back for red zone touches as well. His usage will only go up as Cam Newton is questionable coming into week one. Even if Cam plays I expect the Panthers to rely heavily on Mr. Dependable.

NFL DFS Running Back: Saquon Barkley (NYG) ($9200 FD|$9000 DK)

Saquon Barkley is going to be talked about every week this season. I have Barkley slated as the second best RB in the league with the slight edge going to CMC. Barkley was an absolute beast his rookie year, carrying the ball 261 times for 1,307 yards (11 TDs) and 91 receptions for 721 yards (4 TDs). Over 2,000 all purpose yards as rookie is going to be hard to top, but we know he will. He had a snap share of 88% and had the third most red zone touches of any RB in the league in 2018. The Cowboys were one of the top rushing defenses last season, allowing rushers a measly 3.8 yards per carry and 94 yards per game. Despite the seemingly tough matchup for Barkley he still had over 100 all purpose yards in each of his games against the Cowboys last season. Week one salaries are pretty relaxed so I will look to pair CMC and Saquon in my milly maker lineup.

Mid Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Leonard Fournette (JAC) ($7200 FD|$6100 DK)

I’ve heard nothing but positive things coming out of Jags camp about Fournette. His work ethic is top notch and he was praised all summer by numerous media outlets. He also dropped from 240 lbs to 223 lbs this offseason. The weight is a huge deal with these running backs and his 2018 campaign was marred with injuries so he’s coming back with something to prove. Fournette’s snap share in 2018 hovered right around 52% and he didn’t have the best weighted opportunities but his injuries last year attributed to that so I’m willing to overlook. The Jags are facing the Kansas City Chiefs, who were the sixth worst team in the league in 2018 against the run, allowing rushers to accumulate over 132 yards per game and 19 touchdowns. Jacksonville now appears to have a serviceable QB, so in turn that should create a more balanced attack and even more opportunities for Fournette as the Jags organization has voiced they want to include him more in passing schemes this year. Lock and load Fournette in Week One.

NFL DFS Running Back: Kerryon Johnson (DET) ($7000 FD|$5800 DK)

Recent interviews in Detroit with Darrell Bevell suggest their desire to get back to their football identity. That identity is hard nosed, running football and Kerryon Johnson gives them just that with his supreme talent and youth. He did not have over 1,000 yards rushing last year but his true yards per carry (5.0 YPC) and ability to break away from tackles put him in his own category. The Lions will face the worst rushing defense in 2018 in Week One, the Arizona Cardinals. They allowed a massive 155 yards rushing per game and the most 20+ yard breakaways (Johnson’s specialty). They were also one of the worst in terms of 1st down efficiency (27.3%). With no good upgrades to their defense this offseason and Detroit’s clear desire to involve Johnson more in their offense I believe he will be a top play in Week One.

Low Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Austin Ekeler (LAC) ($6400 FD|$5500 DK)

Austin Ekeler appears to be one of the highest owned running backs coming into Week One. As you may have heard, Melvin Gordon is holding out until he either receives a trade or a new deal. I’m not crazy about Ekeler as an every down back because he isn’t and will never be. I have a hard time eating the chalk here. Pricing around the industry is friendly and the fact that Ekeler will share the load with Justin Jackson deters me from this play. The Chargers face the Colts, who were one of the best teams in the league last season against the run, allowing an average of 101 yards per game. I listed this one because it’s a chalky play and gaining steam quickly. I think his ceiling is limited with the workload share and I think the Chargers will resort more to a pass heavy offense.

NFL DFS Running Back: Devin Singletary (BUF) ($5300 FD|$3600 DK)

This is probably one of my favorite cheap plays on the slate. Frank Gore is number one on the depth chart, but I don’t see him being used as often as you would think. He had zero touchdowns last year and averaged 4.4 yards per carry. He will likely be utilized as an early down and short yardage back. Singletary showed a ton of talent at Florida Atlantic. He has tremendous vision and displayed the ability to break away from tackles. He can be used to run inside but also has great lateral quickness for counters and sweeps. Josh Allen will hurt red zone opportunities for any RB on this team but I think Singletary will make his presence known sooner rather than later.

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