Before delving into our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview, thank you for your understanding with missing the article last week. Sometimes life gets in the way, and a combination of some recent minor surgery and a house move meant the full golf coverage needed to go by the wayside. Thank you for all the kind words.
PGA National bared its teeth again, not just for the players but also for our selections. A little unlucky as Noren missed a place payout for us by one shot at +1200. However, we cashed his Top 20 at +240. Sam Ryder (150/1) was also in contention for a juicy +3000 place for most of the tournament. He slipped down the field Saturday to miss the Top 20 by one, with a bogey on the final hole. As a consolation, we cashed the Top 40 on him at +190.
We return to a happy hunting ground. Bay Hill has been kind to us for the last couple of years. The highlight was hitting Kurt Kitayama as the winner in 2023 alongside a full place on Hatton in 4th. But also, 2022 was an excellent event for our tips. Gary Woodland looked a likely winner at 80/1 before a double bogey-bogey finish saw him finish in 5th just 2 shots off the winning mark. We complimented that with Viktor Hovland and Lucas Herbert both finishing in the top 7 as well.
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Preparation is key at The Masters.
The same goes for you.
Bay Hill Club & Lodge possesses one of the highest correlations on the PGA Tour of prior course form to success. Only Augusta National, Riviera Country Club, and TPC Scottsdale have a higher connection. This penal, difficult test does have a few nuances that explain this and should guide our thinking entering our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview.
You will hear a lot about driving distance being key this week. This, however, does require a little more scrutiny than simply accepting that fact at face value. The true reasoning for this is not simply that a bomb and gouge approach will work here for our Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Rather, the extremely juicy 3 in Ryegrass rough requires some strength to escape. Driving distance is a factor of club head speed, which is extremely helpful on long approach shots from rough.
That is reiterated by the disproportionate number of approach shots that will occur from over 200 yards. Notably, the par 3s play are the longest on the regular PGA Tour stops. Simply, the longer hitters will be holding more loft in their hands. Therefore, allowing for a higher apex for those long iron shots when approaching these firm and fast green complexes.
Fairways are reasonably wide with an average width of 33 yards at the 300-yard mark and 39 yards at the 325 mark. SG: PUTT is highly correlated to success here. Green complexes are very large at an average of 7,500 sq ft. The uptick in putting performance is predominantly because precisely where you are on the greens matters above simply GIR. Additionally, the lengthened approach shots into many holes can result in longer putts to be made.
As previously mentioned, course history should form a large part of any Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Do take a look at round 4 from the 2022 tournament. That round suffered significant winds, which we expect to see here on Saturday.
There are a few additional courses that can guide your thinking. As mentioned, the US Open like setup should mean the majority of those host venues can provide guidance. Host of the 2022 PGA Championship Southern Hills holds similar metrics and was also a windy event. TPC Scottsdale also shows similarities to here. That occurs both demanding long approach play but the reasonably large fairways where there is a significant penalty if straying too far.
Before diving into our weather preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we need to speak about the tournament format. This is the same situation as we saw recently at the Genesis Invitational. 69 players are competing this week. The top 50 players and ties will make the cut or any golfers within 10 strokes of the lead after 36 holes.
Although this means there is unlikely to be a weather wave edge, weather can still have a positive influence on your selections. Florida has an El Nino weather pattern, where winter is unusually cold and wet. There has been additional torrential rain recently, best highlighted by the necessity to delay to a Monday finish at last week’s Cognizant Classic. Wednesday should see more heavy rain the day before the tournament starts. Scoring should still be high, but perhaps all the rain will see conditions play a bit softer than we usually see at this event.
Additionally, heavy winds are forecast on Saturday. Sunday also has the chance for high winds depending when thunderstorms occur. Our selections were influenced by these factors when compiling our betting tips for the week.
If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you can preview these in our golf betting tips article here or the WinDaily Premium Discord here.
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Thank you for reading my Arnold Palmer Invitational preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
It has been the year of the long-shot on the #PGATour, with nearly every winner in 2024 being priced 100/1 or longer!
We have already hit two of them this year! David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) successfully tipped Pavon at a HUGE 125/1 and Spence (@TeeOffSports) snatched Clark at MASSIVE odds of 100/1.
The crew are back to join the crew as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader picks.
The PGA Draft Cast is the only show on YouTube where YOU the audience draft a six-golfer PGA DFS line-up alongside the experts! The format is a standard snake-style draft. Audience members nominate their favorite plays in the chat and the first golfer to be named a second time is the audience’s pick.
Follow Sia (@SiaNejad), David (@deepdivegolf), Joel (@DraftMasterFlex) and Spencer (@TeeOffSports) on Twitter.
This edition of PGA DFS picks takes us to iconic Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, giving us some key golfers to mix into our winning teams!
Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – We’re still waiting on the next big win from Rory and while his putting remains a concern, this is as fine a venue as any to take a shot. The track record at Bay Hill is nearly spotless (he’s the 2018 champ and has four straight top six finishes here) and the premium price reflects that. But if we want him on a few of our GPP teams there’s plenty of value golfers we can use to make it happen without it feeling like extreme stars and scrubs.
Viktor Hovland (DK $10,600) – Sia loves him this week and the only possible reason Hovland be considered a “risky” golfer in this top tier because it’s just his third appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While he’s made the cut both times, he posted a T40 and T42, so we’re expecting a big step forward. The difference between that Viktor and the new Viktor is his ability to drain big putts, and he’s second in my model after Sam Burns, who has yet to break through at Bay Hill as well. Hovland should have a better handle on this difficult layout now and I can’t bet against him – he’ll probably be on my short list for single-entry.
Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton won here last year and is 4-for-4 since 2017, when he finished T4 (with McIlroy). He’s showing up in the top five in my models (tweaked for recent form (24 rounds) and the last 75 rounds and is a solid play in all formats. He’s first in the Proximity 200+ yards stats which we know is a huge factor on this beast of a golf course.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,800) – There’s going to be a lot of sticker shock when folks see the price this week compared to the Genesis, and even last week when he was just $8,500. He’s an excellent play on a tough golf course where he’s had consecutive Top 10 finishes (including a second place finish in 2019). He could get popular and we’ll just have to watch the projected ownership percentages to see how much we’ll need in GPPs.
Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im
Francesco Molinari ($8,700) – The model isn’t in love with him this week because it includes a stretch of rustiness from the Italian. But Molinari has been on the right track recently and the course record here is brilliant, with a win in 2019 and a couple of top tens before that. He’s an option in smaller tournaments (as Joel pointed out in the breakdown video), but his popularity could make him a fade in larger GPPs.
Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) – There may not be a golf course in the known universe that Zalatoris can’t handle, and despite the fact that this is his Bay Hill debut, the youngster has the chops to flourish where others struggle on this demanding layout. The ball-striking prowess is there, and If the putter can pick up a few strokes on the field, look out.
Max Homa (DK $8,500) – Homa finished T24 in his API debut last season, and his game has taken a big step forward since then – with more ball-striking consistency and dominance of Par 5s, where the scoring usually happens. I really like Homa again this week at a fairly priced $8,500 and I’m considering using him in my core GPP builds.
Sam Burns (DK $8,400) – Burns will undoubtedly be popular this week, but he’s first on my model given his excellent numbers over the past 24 rounds, and I’ll have a tough time getting away from him in all formats. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of how much he’s learned as he tackles this course for the fourth time after three lukewarm results (T49-T-54-T36).
Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch may not be ready to contend for a win on Sunday, and neither the model nor his recent form scream “must play” this week. But he’s 2-for-2 at Bay Hill, so we can use him in both cash and GPP if we need a golfer in the $7,500-8,000 range.
Cameron Davis (DK $7,900) – Davis would be my favorite play under $8K if we had any kind of course history to go off, because he’s top five in my model and he can get it done off the tee and on the greens when his putter is rolling. The wind could blow this week, but he’s got an earlier time on Thursday.
Cameron Tringale (DK $7,700) – Tringale has been good lately but hasn’t played this event since 2016. He’s in my model’s top 20 and has excellent SG:APP and SG Par 5 numbers. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Bermuda Championship in late October, and while he might get popular, he’s good value at this price.
Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Paul Casey, Marc Leishman (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Lanto Griffin, Charley Hoffman (GPP)
Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,400) – Grillo’s ball-striking keeps him in the top 30 of my model, and he’s been trending as a “one week on, next week off” type of golfer with respect to his overall game. We know he struggles on Par 5s and with his putter, but his T11 finish in Puerto Rico (in windy conditions) is a step in the right direction. He hasn’t played here since 2018 but was T7 in 2017.
Luke List (DK $7,200) – He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational and his ownership should remain pretty low this week despite an affinity for the venue (T17-T7-T10 in his last three appearances here) and decent play since the Sony Open. Like Grillo, List can struggle with the putter but he’s No 15 in my model and the SG: OTT and T2G numbers are elite. I’m considering him for my single entry GPPs.
Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – I’m noticing a pattern with this price range: good ball striking, bad putting. Kirk fits that bill with more balance in his overall numbers and a a Top 30 ranking in my mode, just ahead of Doc Redman and Max Homa. If you need some value in building a GPP lineup, that’s not a bad trio to start with in large-field MMEs, as adding Cam Davis leaves you with more than $20K for your next two golfers.
Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000) – The recent form isn’t great, but we know that Bradley just tends to show up on the leaderboard out of the blue on venues that play to his strengths. Like the previous three golfers, he has some trouble with the flat stick, but he’s tops in the field in SG:APP over his last 24 rounds and ranks second T2G. If you need a cheap, off-the-wall GPP play to fill out your roster, look no further than the enigmatic Bradley, who’s 5-for-5 here and ranks eighth overall in my model.
Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – NeSmith is popping on everybody’s models this week (he’s third overall on mine) and three straight finishes inside the Top 20 – combined with this low price – should make him extremely popular this week. One of the first column I read this week listed him as a “sleeper” pick, but that might not be the best way to describe a guy who’s approach 15% projected ownership. Still – he’s a decent value play this week despite missing the cut at his first Bay Hill appearance in 2020.
Harold Varner III (DK $6,800) – He hasn’t performed up to his capabilities on Par 5s recently like Matt Jones (definitely someone to consider this week), but he’s a solid off-the-radar play given his T2G game and high ranking in Opportunities Gained (eight in the field). Varner is in my model’s top 25 and while he’s just 2-for-4 at Bay Hill, I could easily see him in the Top 20 on Sunday.
More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Branden Grace (GPP), Matt Jones, Corey Conners, Henrik Norlander, Zach Johnson, Erik van Rooyen, Brendan Steele (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Chez Reavie, Doug Ghim, Lucas Glover
Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) –There’s no course history to speak of, but Percy is No. 33 in my model and makes for a solid GPP play in this price range. The biggest question marks are his putter and lack of experience at Bay Hill.
Kyle Stanley (DK $6,500) – Like Varner, I’m a little concerned about his ability o take advantage of the Par 5s here, as he ranks way down at No. 111 in the field in that category. But the rest of the game is golden, and he’s actually No. 24 in my overall model.
Additional punts: Tom Hoge (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Doc Redman (GPP), Mark Hubbard (GPP)
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