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Walker Buehler

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No rain in the forecast but we do have winds blowing out in St. Louis for the Reds-Cards game — something to consider for Cincinnati GPP stacks.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($9,700)

We can chalk up his last outing (3 IP, 7 H, 1 K, 6 ER @SF) to a bad day, and his last start vs. the Padres yielded a solid outcome. The K rate is down a bit in 2021, but the walks are down, the ground ball rate has increased and the solid 2.31 ERA isn’t too far separated from the 3.18/3.59 FIP/xFIP combo. We’re looking at about a 35-40 point projections here, with a 50-point ceiling, and that’s good enough to make him the top SP for cash games and single-entry.

Best GPP Value: Charlie Morton ($9,000)

Morton looks like a solid value tonight against the Marlins, who have the second-highest team K% in MLB. The veteran’s upside probably even exceeds Buehler’s tonight given the matchup, and that upside comes with a built-in discount from the top two arms on the slate in Buehler and Luis Castillo. I’m not as interested in Castillo because of how he can get lit up, especially against a team filled with potent bats like the Cards, but he’d make for a semi-contrarian choice given that tougher matchup. Morton seems to fit the best and carry the highest chance of notching both a QS and W, so he’s my first choice for GPPs.

Contrarian GPP Play: Luis Garcia ($8,300)

Garcia isn’t a very exciting play, but if we need a leverage pivot with some upside, he’s probably it. His ownership should be lower than Morton’s, and he’s seen an uptick in velocity on his pitches lately. The problem is that he’s got a much lower floor than either Morton or Buehler, and while the price is severely discounted compared to DraftKings, he hasn’t notched double-digit Ks in any start this season despite a 10.41 K% because he rarely pitches six full innings.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

The implied run total is well over 5, and the Astros have been red-hot offensively over the past few games, so we should start any stack off with Alex Bregman ($3,200), and then play some combination of Jose Altuve ($3,800) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,400), Carlos Correa ($3,500), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) Yuri Gurriel ($2,900) and value options Michael Brantley ($2,600) and Martin Maldonado ($2,100). There’s really nobody that’s out of consideration given the circular nature of this powerful lineup.

GPP Stack #1: Chicago White Sox

The prices are still relatively affordable for the White Sox (even moreso on DK), with Luis Robert ($3,900), Jose Abreu ($3,800), Eloy Jimenez ($3,500) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,800) all in play for stacks against Red Sox projected starter Connor Seabold. Andrew Vaughn is just $2,300, and both Brian Goodwin ($2,200) and Yoan Moncada ($3,200) are in play as well. It’s simply a great spot for mixing and matching a few different four-man stacks of White Sox.

GPP Stack #2: Cincinnati Reds

Miles Mikolas doesn’t scare me one bit, and while the Reds are a dynamic bunch who can disappoint on occasion, I like the four-man stack of Jonathan India ($3,700), Nick Castellanos ($4,100), Joey Votto ($3,700) and Tyler Naquin ($2,700) the best among this bunch, with Eugenio Suarez ($3,200), Max Schrock ($2,100) and Tucker Barnhart ($2,400) the best of the rest.

Bonus Value Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases.  Tonight we have a small 4 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.  With a small slate comes a limited pool of options.Let’s dig in to today’s slates!MLB DFS: Early Slate ThoughtsPithing isn’t great on the early slate.  Thankfully we only have to pick 1.  My lean right now is to stick with either Chris Flexen or Dylan Cease.  Flexen will probably be my main target as he gets the best match up vs. the lowly Rangers.  With bats we go right back to the well against the Orioles.  Lopez has really struggled the last 30 days and his biggest weakness has been the lefties.  They have a .451 wOBA against him over that period.  Lowe ($3.7k), Choi ($2.5k), and Meadows ($3.2k) are the targets there.  If Phillips ($2.6k) plays he’ll also crack my lineup.  White Sox vs. Irvin will also be a place to...

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Possibility for a stray shower that could cause a late start or brief delay at Citi Field for Dodgers-Mets, but other than that we don’t have to worry about much other than the usual weirdness in these trying times!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($11,500)

The price may prohibit us from getting all the bats we want, but there’s no denying that Buehler offers the safest option for cash games as long s the weather looks like it will hold prior to lock. The Mets are just about middle-of-the-road in K rate in MLB (23.6%), and Buehler’s pitch repertoire all but guarantees they’ll have trouble barreling him up tonight. From a MLB DFS perspective, there’s plenty of reason to steer away on GPPs and single-entry builds where we’d like to get some big bats, but there may be some sneaky stack value that could help us combine Buehler’s high floor with the hitting points necessary to nail down a solid cash game lineup.

NOTE: If you’re willing to assume a little more risk and need the extra savings, Joe Musgrove ($9,600) is also a viable option against a somewhat feckless Arizona lineup.

Best GPP Value: Luis Garcia ($7,900)

Garcia is woefully mispriced on FD and we’re going to take advantage in GPPs. In his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 article, Adam Strangis points out that Garcia has a great spot for production here, and that’s a DK-oriented piece where he’s actually priced at $9,900, while Buehler is just $10,600. On FD, however, we only need one SP — and Garcia’s average of 31.7 PPG (with duel season highs of 52 points coming in his last start and two of his last four starts) is a huge plus. He’s clearly our best bang for the buck against an Angels lineup that has a few bright spots but has been among the worst in the league over the past 14 days (.214/.282/.314 team slash; .264 team wOBA and 66 wRC+). Single-entry, large-field GPP — maybe even cash games — I’ll be all over Garcia tonight in MLB DFS tonight.

Contrarian GPP Play: Dylan Cease ($8,900)

The Yankees offense is very scary, but they do strike out at a 24.3% rate this season and this game will not be played in a wind tunnel Field of Dreams where any hard hit fly ball ends up in the corn. Cease is projected for over 30 FD points and he could easily exceed the 40-point mark if he can avoid the walks and big blast (he’s made big strides in 2021, lowering his BB/9% to 3.69 from 5.25 in a tumultuous 2020). He should carry low ownership against the Bronx Bombers and pitching on his home field should help a bit, as he’s posted a .267 wOBA on the South Side of Chicago, compared to .301 in road games. This is a risky play but Cease does have upside in this matchup if he can keep the Yankees off base and limit the HR damage to solo blasts.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

Taijuan Walker hasn’t been too good since the end of June, yielding a whopping .464 wOBA since the All-Star break and an almost hilarious .333/.406/.711 slash line to opposing hitters. And now, folks, he gets to face the Los Angeles Dodgers! We can focus our attention on the lefties here. making a point to include Cody Bellinger ($3,600) — who’s really been heating up — along with Corey Seager ($3,200), Max Muncy ($3,700) and finish off our four-man stack with RHB A.J. Pollock ($3,100), who’s still relatively cheap. Trea Turner is also worth a look, but he’s expensive at $4,000, and if Albert Pujols ($2,200) starts he’ll be a bargain.

GPP Value Stack: San Francisco Giants

I profited quite a bit from having almost 100% of Austin Slater ($2,500) and Wilmer Flores ($3,000) last night in the late slate contests, and we want to take advantage of their soft prices and crazy splits against LHP again tonight, as they’ll be facing Rockies SP Kyle Freeland, a southpaw with a .364 wOBA (and nine HR allowed this season in 52.0 total IP) against right-handed batters. Throw in cleanup hitter Darin Ruf ($2,700) and (future HOFer?) Buster Posey ($3,300) and you’ve got a solid and inexpensive four-man stack, viable for cash or GPP. 3B/OF.UTIL eligible Kris Bryant is also worth a look and makes sense to mix in if you can afford him at $3,900, and we have another cheap option in Donovan Solano ($2,500), who’s having an excellent second half (.307/.381/.453).

GPP Stack #2: Houston Astros

The Astros could also be popular tonight, and I’m fine starting my builds with Michael Brantley ($3,000), Yordan Alvarez ($3,900), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) and GPP wunderkind Aledmys Diaz ($2,700). Sure, we can squeeze in Jose Altuve ($3,800) if we can afford him and there’s no reason to bet against Carlos Correa ($3,500) and value option Chas McCormick ($2,300) if he gets into the lineup. Angels SP Jaime Barria has been decent since returning from Triple-A in late July, but this Astros lineup is just too good at making contact and barreling up baseballs. Don’t forget to mix in a stack or two in your GPPs.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather issues except a little light rain in the Windy City, and that wind is blowing in tonight.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($10,400)

With Gerrit Cole still looking lost a bit without his trusty sticky stuff, Buehler probably makes the most sense as the top ace on this small slate. While Cole does has another narrative at play here facing his former team — one that simply doesn’t strike out at normal human baseball team levels — Buehler is the largest favorite on the board and is the clear choice for cash games. Adam Strangis, in his must-read 7.10 Starting Rotation article, cites Buehler’s two appearances this season against a punchless D-Backs offense that resulted in 14.1 IP, 18 K’s, two ER, and just six free passes. His MLB DFS upside isn’t nearly what we’ve come to expect from a top ace, but he’s the safest option on the board.

Best GPP Value: Freddy Peralta ($9,900)

Peralta gets the nod for best GPP value because he’s under $10K, but if you need the added savings that bad, you could give Joe Musgrove a shot against the road Rockies, The thing I like about Peralta is his very steady K production, which helps give him a daily FD points projection of over 40 just about every game. The Reds do a good job of putting the ball into play, especially on the road, where the team K rate is a few percentage points lower than at home, but if Fab Finger Freddy can avoid the walks and the big blow, this should be a W and another 40-45 points. Musgrove will likely come in with higher ownership and makes more sense for MLB DFS on a site like DK, where you need to start two pitchers, and one can be very chalky.

Contrarian GPP Play: Patrick Sandoval ($7,700)

If you really want to see some savings at SP in large-field MLB DFS tourneys and stack up the big bats from the Dodgers, Brewers or other high-team-total offenses, you might have some interest in Sandoval, who’s made some adjustments to his pitch repertoire this season and carries a respectable 3.86/3.85 ERA/FIP combo into this matchup against one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Mariners strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB and give Sandoval the opportunity to not only eclipse his 25-30 point FD projection, but have a ceiling game in the 40-345 point range. He whiffed 10 Seattle batters in his last outing against the M’s and yielded just one walk and 2 ER en route to 46 FD points on June 6.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. CIN RHP Vladimir Gutierrez

While the Dodgers bats are simply too cheap, they don’t seem to match up well vs. LHP Caleb Smith, who shut them out in 6.0 IP last time out on June 18. The Brewers, on the other hand, get to face Gutierrez — who’s given up 25 hits and 11 BB over his last 25.1 IP. “Kind of Bad” Vlad has done okay against lefties so far this season, but he’s been abnormally lucky, as his xFIP splits (6.41 vs. LHB) tell a different story. Look to some combination of the first six (also pretty inexpensive) bats here: Luis Urias ($2,600), Christian Yelich ($3,400), Jace Peterson ($2,600), Omar Narvaez ($2,500), Willy Adames ($2,700) and Avisail Garcia ($3,100). Yelich and Narvaez would be my two-man core if I had to pick a couple bats to populate more of my MLB DFS builds.

Contrarian Stack #1: Houston Astros vs. NYY RHP Gerrit Cole

The Astros put the ball in play, and they’re at home against a pitcher who’s clearly not looking like his normal self. If they can get to him early, there’s massive GPP potential here in stacking some combination of these high-upside Houston bats, including: Jose Altuve ($4,200), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Kyle Tucker ($3,400) and Yordan Alvarez ($4,100) — who is 2-for-3 with two HR against Cole in his young career. I’m also willing to give a look to Martin Maldonado ($2,100) for some salary relief in a four-man stack that otherwise includes Altuve, Brantley and Alvarez. While it pains me to suggest stacking against my beloved Bombers on a short-handed slate, there just aren’t a ton of high-upside options to feast on tonight. I may have one Yankees stack as well, as Zack Greinke is long past his status as an MLB DFS ace.

Contrarian Stack #2: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. ARI LHP Caleb Smith

We discussed how they’ve struggled against LHP and Smith this season, but they are very cheap compared to their usual salaries and the ownership shouldn’t be out of control since they aren’t the highest projected total on the board. Mookie Betts ($3,500) is probably the lowest we’ll see him all season, and there’s plenty of upside in the bats of Justin Turner ($3,000), Chris Taylor ($3,000), Cody Bellinger ($3,300) and Max Muncy ($3,700). I really like the direct cheap prices on Albert Pujols ($2,100) and Will Smith ($2,500) if they end dup in the lineup too.

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 8 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. Pitching options are pretty limited tonight.  However, we have a couple of pitchers with good match-ups that we can exploit.  We also have 2 high powered offenses in great match-ups. Let’s dig in to today’s slates!MLB DFS: The AcesWalker Buehler ($11k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Buehler gets tonight what I think is a phenomenal match-up.  Cubs have really been struggling to put the bat on the ball over the past couple of weeks.  In the last 2 weeks the Cubbies have a near 30% K rate.  The worst in baseball.  Statistically speaking, they’ve been one of the worst offenses in the game over the last few weeks.  Yes, they have some bats in the lineup that can hit some homers but they are really struggling to get anyone on with just a .248 OBP. So even if they put the ball over the fence it’s going to be a solo shot.  Any chance I can get, I’m go...

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The rain from Tropical Storm Claudette is seriously threatening to PPD the Braves-Cards game, so we’ll leave that off our list of targets. The rest of the games have just a few possible delays sprinkled in, so just keep an eye on SP for those games.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Framber Valdez ($10,200)

I’m not all that enamored with Walker Buehler’s strikeout numbers this season, and Lance Lynn is squaring up against an Astros lineup that just doesn’t strike out very much. Both are more expensive than Valdez and have about the same projected FD total, so Framber seems like the best option with the most upside in a home game that could turn into a pitcher’s duel. He’s carrying a 1.42 ERA that’s much lower than his 3.48 FIP but the xFIP is just 3.01. There is some additional reason for concern given that his 90.9% LOB% is pretty bloated, but he should fare well if he can keep the White Sox off the base paths today.

Best GPP Value: Patrick Sandoval ($7,800)

Sandoval has made great strides in the past year, mixing in a solid changeup to go along with a fledgling four-seamer that Adam Strangis highlights in his excellent, must-read 6/19 Starting Rotation piece. While I don’t agree with his choices of Buehler and Lynn before Valdez today, the writeup on Sandoval deftly addresses how much of a great leverage play Sandoval could be in tournaments tonight, especially with some folks stacking the cheap Tigers bats as a contrarian move in GPPs. Sandoval is a decent by-the-book DFS play on FD because of his effective recent starts and the fact that the Angels are -220 favorite and the Tigers have the highest team K rate (27.6%) in baseball.

Contrarian GPP Play: Vladimir Gutierrez ($7,600)

Gutierrez has been awfully sharp in four outings this season, and while the Padres are not a team we like to play pitchers against, the rookie righty has yet to give up more than two earned runs in any start and already has two quality starts to his record in 2021. It’s important to point out that while the sample size is still very small, it’s possible major league hitters are still making an adjustment to the youngster’s stuff and what has been a very effective fastball. Gutierrez works in a slider, curve and change that have been average, but with injuries abounding in the Reds rotation, he’s making a play to stay there. As a GPP play, he’s got upside, along with huge bust potential, so steer clear of him in cash games and single-entry builds. Both he and the befuddling Austin Gomber (who’s pitched great in Coors Field this year) are interesting leverage plays on this slate.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Angels at DET RHP Wily Peralta

The Angels have a .377 team wOBA in the past seven games, and they have some monster bats in Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), Jared Walsh ($3,800) and Justin Upton ($3,400), who has thrived in the leadoff spot. Mix in “FanDuel fourth-man” power options Max Stassi ($3,600), Taylor Ward ($2,900) and the possible return of Anthony Rendon ($3,700) and you’ve got the building blocks of a slate-breaking stack.

Value Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. ARI RHP Matt Peacock

We can call the Dodgers a value stack on this slate because they have a few lefty hitters that qualify for that designation tonight including Gavin Lux ($2,900) and Zach McKinstry ($2,400). Using one or both of them should allow you to fit in two or three of the big bats: Mookie Betts ($4,200), Justin Turner ($3,900), a rejuvenated Albert Pujols ($3,10)and Chris Taylor, who is still overpriced a bit at $3,400 (unless he’s moved back up in the order). Will Smith ($2,700) and A.J. Pollock ($2,600) are also cheap and remain in the conversation for Dodgers stacks.

Contrarian Stack: Tampa Bay Rays vs. RHP Logan Gilbert

The Rays aren’t typically a contrarian stack, but they are today, especially with a Coors Field game on the slate. I’ll defer to the Discord chatter a bit on the specifics of the best Tampa Bay builds since they LOVE the Rays in there, but I’m starting my stacks with Austin Meadows ($3,800) and Randy Arozarena ($4,000), mixing in a few shares each of Joey Wendle ($3,100), Ji-Man Choi ($2,700) and Manuel Margot ($3,000).

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather concerns of note, so everyone should technically be “in play” from a DFS perspective.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($10,500)

I’m not sure how many folks will get thrown off by the stiff winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight, but that stadium minimizes wind impact with its design — and Buehler is still the top ace of the slate. There’s really no close second, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Buehler’s ZIPS projections anticipate a lot more Ks over the next few starts. His talent level is head and shoulders better than choices B and C tonight and the run support he should get with his Dodgers facing the Giants’ Matt Wisler and some bullpen arms is enough to make him the safest option on the board.

Best GPP Value: Chris Bassitt ($8,800)

The A’s are a road favorite against an Angels team missing Mike Trout — the anchor of their lineup and one of the main reasons to fear that team. Over the past seven days we’ve seen the Angels team K rate increase about three percentage points, and while Bassitt isn’t known as a high-strikeout pitcher, his K/9 has increased to 9.62 this season, and his walk rate is the lowest its been in his seven-year MLB career. There isn’t an EASY value on tonight’s slate, but if I had to pick a guy who could surprise and break through with moderately low ownership on a day with limited options, Bassitt is the guy.

Contrarian GPP Value: Robbie Ray ($9,100)

Ray has been excellent this season, and while the minor league park the Blue Jays are hosting games in is quite the bandbox, Ray’s K is up a percentage point and a half to 28.9% this season. It’s not quite where it was during his DFS heyday in 2017 — when it was a whopping 32.8 and he posted a 1.15 WHIP and 3.72 FIP — but Ray is throwing a lot of good fastballs again, limiting hard contact this season and getting his WHIP down to an impressive 1.17 through seven starts. The Rays strike out at the fourth-highest rate among MLB teams and that’s exactly the type of thing we’re looking for on FanDuel, where efficiency matters a lot less than notching strikeouts. Adam Strangis also points out in his 5/22 Starting Rotation piece that they’re especially bad against lefties. Nathan Eovaldi ($7,200) also makes sense as an off-the-wall, high-risk contrarian play against Philadelphia. The Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in baseball, but Eovaldi might end up being more popular than Ray because of the salary difference.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. PHI RHP Spencer Howard

The Red Sox continue to mash and represent the safest stack of the 5/22 MLB DFS slate. They also boast one of the higher projected team run totals and have a 2-5 stack that rivals any in the bigs at the moment. Alex Verdugo is out today (hamstring) but Xander Bogaerts ($3,800), J.D. Martinez ($4,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,800) should all be rostered confidently. It’s an expensive stack that will probably need some value to offset that type of spending. Value options for your fourth hitter on Boston include Kike Hernandez ($3,200) — who has 2B/OF positional flexibility — Christian Vazquez ($2,500), and sluggers Bobby Dalbec ($2,400) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,200)

Value Stack: San Diego Padres vs. SEA LHP Justus Sheffield

The Padres aren’t normally a value play as a team stack, but Eric Hosmer is just $2,700 and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,500) is the only real spend-up hitter we’ll encounter here. The rest of my preferred stack includes Manny Machado ($3,200) and Tommy Pham ($2,100). Pham’s price is way too low given his upside and the fact that that his offense came alive for 34.2 FanDuel points last night. Right handed Austin Nola ($2,900) is also an option, and I would prefer leadoff hitter Trent Grisham ($3,400) to Jake Cronenworth ($3,000) since the former is better vs. lefties and the latter sometimes gets a day off against southpaws anyway — but Grisham is nursing a heel injury that had him removed in the fifth inning against Seattle yesterday.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland Athletics vs. LAA LHP Patrick Sandoval

It’s difficult to say just how many innings Sandoval will pitch tonight, but the A’s are better against LHP this season and their productive core of Mark Canha $3,100), Ramon Laureano ($3,400) and Matt Chapman ($2,700) could get some early scoring off the mediocre southpaw. I’m fine adding Matt Olson ($3,400) to the mix or even take a shot on Seth Brown ($2,200), who homered a couple games ago and offers some great value.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a big 12 game main slate on Fanduel. While we have one true ace, there are a bunch of really solid options that I like that are in good matchups.  We also have a Coor’s game that may be impacted by weather again.  With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!MLB DFS: The AcesRobbie Ray ($8.3k) vs. Atlanta Braves – This is purely a GPP play.  Braves always have potential to put up a big number with some of the bats in that lineup.  However, against lefties this  year they have been brutal.  They have a high K rate over 27%.  What’s more concerning is their power numbers.  They have just a .557 OPS and a .129 ISO.  We’re more than a month into the season at this point.  Targeting lefties against this lineup may be a thing this year.  It’s surprising.  Ray has seen a resurgence this season.  In his last 3 starts he’s gotten 40, 39, and 40 FD points.  At his price point, that’s damn good.  His...

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We’ve reached the decisive Game 5 for both NLDS matchups on 10/9 DFS — here are my picks for the two-game slate and the featured Showdown.

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10/9 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK& FD)

The games: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (5:02 p.m.), Washington Nationals atLos Angeles Dodgers (8:37 p.m.)

10/9 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

I’m focused on the home favorite for SP1 here – since home-fieldadvantage in the MLB playoffs is a real and palpable thing. The DK pricing is,thankfully, soft enough for us to find plenty of big bats. For SP2, I’ll have alittle of both Jack Flaherty (consistent value at his price) and MikeFoltynewicz, who was excellent in his start on Oct. 4. Startingpitching has been really great in the postseason thus far, so youreally can’t go wrong with any combo.

SP1: Walker Buehler (DK $9,000, FD $10,300)

Buehler has the highest upside of any pitcher on the slate, evenif his leash is a little shorter than Strasburg’s. For the $400 discount, he’smy SP1 – and I’m fine with him being chalky.

SP2: Jack Flaherty (DK $7,400, FD $9,600)

Flahery has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-star break (his .189 wOBA in the second half is almost beyond belief) and he went 117 pitches in his last start, which tells me the Cards are going to let him win or lose this thing.

10/9 DFS Hitters

10/9DFS C: Yadier Molina, STL (DK $3,900, FD $2,800)

Molina was thehero on Monday for the Cards, and while he’s back on the road for decuisiveGame 5, this veteran has had success against Folty in a limited sample (7-for-18,.432 wOBA with a HR)  Pivot: Brian McCann (DK $3,200)

10/9DFS 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL (DK $4,900, FD $3,800)

He came through for us on Monday so I’m going back to the well inGame 5. Goldy is one of the best fantasy assets in baseball over the past fiveyears and he’s a complete offensive player who can rack up the XBH. The pricehas come up a bit but he’s worth the extra expense. Pivot: Freddie Freeman

10/9DFS 2B: Max Muncy, LAD (DK $4,500, 3B on FD $3,800)

Muncy is having an electric postseason with a couple homers andthree games scoring over 20 DK points. He’s eligible at 1B if you’re stacking Dodgersand want to use Gavin Lux at second base for the discount. Pivot: Gavin Lux

10/9DFS 3B: Justin Turner, LAD (DK $4,200, FD $3300)

I’m not a hugebeliever in BvP, but a small sample analysis within the small sample frameworkof the playoffs makes some sense. The track record against Strasburg and RHPsin general is a good one, and Turner((142 wRC+ and .294 ISO this season) has homered in his last twogames this postseason. Pivot: Anthony Rendon/Tommy Edman

10/9DFS SS: Corey Seager, LAD (DK $3,900, FD $2,900)

There’s plenty of risk starting Seageragainst Strasburg, but he’s an exciting young player who came alive in Septemberwith a .304/.337/.646 slash line, seven homersand 23 RBI during the final month, and he has a clear affinity for playoffbaseball. He’s been getting hits but hasn’t posted the big lien yet. Today couldbe the day he breaks through with some XBH. Pivot: Paul DeJong

10/9DFS OF: Juan Soto, WAS (DK $4,500, FD $3,700)

I won’t have to much exposure to the Nationals in this game, butone player who’s worth the risk is Soto – who had a monster Game 3 and appearsready for the big stage of a Game 5. If the Nats pull this out, he’s going tohave a lot to do with it. Pivot: Clay Bellinger

10/9DFS OF: Marcell Ozuna, STL (DK $4,900, FD $3,900)

There isn’t a hotter hitter in the NL postseason than Ozuna, whohas multi-hit games in all of the NLDS tilts thus far and is coming off atwo-homer game in Game 4. He’ll be extremely chalky on this two-game slate becausehis game logs will attract plenty of attention from the masses – but you shouldhave some exposure to this slugger who hit 31 homers in 2019 and now has a.275/.341/.650 slash line against the Braves in 2019 if you count thepostseason. Pivot: Ronald Acuna

10/9DFS OF: Matt Joyce, ATL (DK $3,200, FD $2,300)

We need to find some value somewhere, so Joyce fits the bill if he’sin the starting lineup. If he’s not, you’ll have a difficult decision to make –since it could be difficult to find a viable DK OF under $3,500. Pivot: DexterFowler (DK $3,900)

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10/9DFS Featured Single-Game (8:37 ESTon FD)

Hitters only – so we can focus on the Dodgers bats we like andplay one or two Nats hitters with upside. We’ll slap the modestly priced JustinTurner in the MVP spot, since many will be drawn to the higher priced bats at 2x.

SampleFD lineup:

MVP (2x) – J. Turner ($7,000) – If he homers, he’ll pay off

All-Star (1.5x) – T. Turner ($8,500) – His ability to steal basesat will could be huge today.

UTIL – M. Muncy ($8,000)

UTIL – C. Seager ($6,500)

UTIL – G. Lux ($5,000)

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10/9DFS Featured Showdown (8:37 p.m.on DK)

It may be beneficial to play one or two Dodgers and/or Nats batswe like, somehow fit in Buehler and pick an off-the-wall bench player on eitherteam to come through with a big hit late in the game.

Sample DK Showdown Lineup:

Captain (1.5x) – J. Turner ($12,000)

UTIL – W. Buehler ($11,000)

UTIL – G. Lux ($4,200)

UTIL – M. Muncy ($9,000)

UTIL – J. Soto ($8,800)

UTIL – B. Dozier ($5,000)

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We’re into the exciting MLB postseason and looking at some 10/3 MLB DFS picks for the two-game slate and featured Showdown on DraftKings (8:37 EST). Join us as we detail some strategies for lineup construction and taking down the big cash prize.

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10/3 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK & FD)

The games: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (5:02 p.m. EST) & Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers (8:37 p.m. EST)

10/3 DFS SP General Strategy

The one-game playoffs are over, so SP1s are much more important, could rack up some big-time points and will set the tone for the entire roster construction. There’s plenty of SP2 value here.

SP1: Walker Buehler, LAD vs. WAS (DK $9,600, FD $10,200)

The pricing is fair on both sites considering Buehler’sceiling, although he’ll have a shorter leash than the regular season. Still –the 29.2 K% stands out as a number we can latch onto and invest in, along withthe 12.2% HR/FB rate. The young ace has been the Dodgers’ most consistentstarter in 2019 and is your best bet at SP1. Ownership will be massive and I’llmake sure to leave him out of 1-2/10 GPP lineups, but we can find ways todifferentiate later.

SP2: Dallas Keuchel, ATL vs. STL (DK $6,800, FD $8,100)

I’m not interested in Miles Mikolas and the small discount on FD, and he’s just too risky against the Braves lineup at their home park in Atlanta. I may slap in both Keuchel and Mikolas in the aforementioned 1-2/10 lineups on DK and stack the biggest bats from the hitting options below, but Keuchel’s postseason record (4-2, 3.31 ERA in nine starts and 10 total appearances) is something I’m drawn to. Keuchel’s .219 BAA and 3.38 SIERA in the postseason further solidify my interest.

10/3 DFS Hitters

10/3 DFS C: Yadier Molina, STL (DK $3,800, FD $2,700)

You’re paying for experience (343 postseason plate appearances) and the highest floor of the available catchers. I’m probably not playing catchers on FD but you get a real discount with Molina. Brian McCann ($3,400 on DK) has legit home run upside but poor postseason numbers in 126 plate appearances (.170/.254/.304 slash). Will Smith is neutralized a bit by LHPs and Kurt Suzuki is a contrarian dart throw for large-field GPPs.

10/3 DFS 1B: Cody Bellinger, LAD (DK $5,000)

The price is right and he’s got the biggest upside excluding Paul Goldschmidt, who might get pretty chalky. I’m not worried about lefty-lefty and Corbin may not last long. Bellinger is an OF on FD and OF eligible on DK. Plug him in there. Pivot: Freddie Freeman, ATL (DK $4,700, FD $4,200). I’m concerned about the bone spur in his elbow and may choose to avoid him here. Freddie is risky but has a favorable matchup against Mikolas.

10/3 DFS 2B: Ozzie Albies, ATL (DK $4,500, FD $3,700)

Tommy Edman ($5,300 on DK) is 2B/3B eligible on DK and makes for an interesting pivot against the LHP, but I like Albies hitting in the 2-spot here despite his splits favoring him versus lefties. If he’s chalky, I’ll look to use the more expensive Edman. Pivots: Edman, Asdrubal Cabrera

10/3 DFS 3B: Justin Turner, LAD (DK $3,900, FD $3,200)

The 34-year-old is nursing a tight back, but he’s assured us he will play in Game 1 and is coming off a solid season where he tied his career high with 27 homers – while driving in 67 runs and slashing .290/.372/.509 in 135 games. I’m taking the plunge and hoping for low ownership because of the back.

10/3 DFS SS: Chris Taylor, LAD (DK $3,600)

Taylor is a relatively cheap OF on FD ($2,800) but the price on Dk is solid too. Remember when this guy just couldn’t get it going early in the season? After his dreadful April when he slashed .171/.263/.257, Taylor settled in, and he’s got plenty of postseason experience with a 139 wRC+ in 30 games.

10/3 DFS OF: Kike Hernandez (DK $3,300)

Hernandez is a $2,900 second baseman on FD, but he’s just $3,300 on Dk and the price can get you a full Dodgers stack without too much trouble. He kills southpaws (career 123 wRC+ and .213 ISO vs. LHPs) and he’s got five HRs in 103 postseason plate appearances. Pivot: Matt Joyce

10/3 DFS OF: Juan Soto (DK $4,100, FD $3,800)

I’m buying Soto despite the tough matchup, planning on him coming up in a big spot late in the game, and delivering. Soto showed us something in the Wild Card game the small sample 0-for-5 BvP against Buehler will keep his ownership low. The price is cheap and if he fits, I’ll use him. Pivots: Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna

10/3 DFS OF: A.J. Pollock, LAD (DK $3,700, FD $3,400)

He rounds out my Dodgers stack on DK and makes sense as a third outfielder on FD. Pollock sports a blistering 136 wRC+ against LHPs and a 154 wRC+ at home vs. LHPs. Pivot: Dexter Fowler

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10/3 DFS FeaturedShowdown (8:37 p.m. on DK)

I’ll have some shares with Buehler as CPT and a few inexpensivebats and bench players (Gavin Lux, Brian Dozier are both viable bench optionsin large-field Showdown GPPs), but the majority of lineups will feature Pollock,Turner, Taylor and Hernandez at CPT with shares of Soto, Howie Kendrick, VictorRobles and Cabrera for the Nats.

Sample Showdown Lineup:

Captain (1.5x) – Pollock ($10,800)

UTIL – Buehler ($11,600)

UTIL – J. Turner ($7,600)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($7,400)

UTIL – C. Taylor ($6,600)

UTIL – V. Robles ($6,000)

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10/3 DFS Featured Single-Game (8:37 EST on FD)

We don’t have to worry about pitchers on FD, so we can putour best hitter right in the MVP slot and take some chances after that. And Ifwe stick with Pollock as MVP in 2/5 GPP lineups, we’ll get low ownership and anadvantage on the field.

Sample FD lineup (with $0 left):

MVP (2x) – Pollock ($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bellinger ($9,000)

UTIL – C. Taylor ($4.500)

UTIL – T. Turner ($8,500)

UTIL – K. Hernandez ($6,000)

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