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Trevor Bauer

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s monster 14-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 4:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The weather concerns in this slate are sparse and minor, and we shouldn’t be concerned about any delays that could impact the pitchers we’re targeting today.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($12,000)

There’s definitely part of me who wants to roster Trevor Bauer, and the Dodgers RHP is certainly worth a look on DK at a discount, but on FD, Burnes makes the most sense as top dog, as he possesses the most strikeout upside on the slate. While some simulations actually have Bauer projected for a higher total tonight (even WinDaily’s model gives Bauer the slight value edge — likely due to the TEX team K rate of 26.8% vs. RHP), the new crackdown on foreign substances has had a detrimental effect on the K numbers of a few pitchers, “Tricky Trevor” included. Burnes, as Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 6/12 Starting Rotation article, is coming off a monster start where he racked up 13K and 70 FD points. He’s a top five MLB pitcher and FanDuel’s scoring allows him and his 18.5% swinging-strike rate (a metric that ranks behind only Jacob deGrom this season) the chance at 60+ each and every night he takes the mound. We’ll have to get a little creative with our hitting stacks to build something we can be confident with, but Burnes is a great option for cash games and I’ll be using him in some GPPs as well.

Best GPP Value: Joe Musgrove ($8,300)

For the second straight week, Muskrat Joe takes our top value spot. He was serviceable in that role last week with a 10 K outing, but he did get knocked around a little bit to the tune of 9 hits and 3 ER — and the pedestrian 5.0 IP kept him from receiving the crucial quality start bonus we need from our SP. Adam and I both like him for today’s slate, and the fact that he’s kept his ERA, FIP, and xFIP under 3.00 in this career year make me happy to recommend him against the Mets. who strike out at a team rate of 23.7%. Musgrove is carrying a career-high 34.2% K rate and limiting his free passes, and the Mets don’t have their usually lefty firepower without a few of their better offensive players. Joe’s unlucky 6/5 start still yielded 36 FD points, and this time he’s the same price and should eclipse the 40 mark.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jameson Taillon ($6,200)

I was actually a little giddy when I saw that Adam was on Taillon as a GPP value play today, because he’s one of the first options I considered when I thought “contrarian play” for this slate. Taillon is effective against right-handed bats and the Phillies (who have a bunch of them) strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB (26.4% — tied with MIA and MIL). I wouldn’t blame anyone for going a little safer with value options like TB LHP Rich Hill ($7,700 vs. BAL), but the Orioles relatively low K rate (20.2%) vs. LHP makes me think he lacks the same upside, value and leverage for GPPs. If we want to stack some of the best bats, we’ll need what Taillon offers in salary relief to get there.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. MIA RHP Zach Thompson

AS of 11:11 a.m. EST, there’s no line yet on this game, but you’d have to imagine that the high-powered Braves offense is projected for 5+ runs against a 27-year-old rookie making just his second major-league start. Thompson’s minor-league metrics don’t jump off the page and the Braves have just too much firepower to worry about using them. Go with Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Ozzie Albies ($3,400) and a still-discounted Austin Riley ($2,700) in a four-man stacks, swapping out Albies for value options (and righty mashers) William Contreras ($2,200) and Abraham Almonte ($2,100) if you need the salary savings to get four Braves in your build.

Value Stack: Milwaukee Brewers vs. PIT RHP Chad Kuhl

The Brewers have a bunch of risky but potent hitters in their lineup to go along with the consistently excellent bat of Christian Yelich ($3,800), including Avisail Garcia ($2,700), Omar Narvaez ($2,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), Luis Urias ($2,700) and Willy Adames ($2,200). Left-handed OF Jace Peterson is also an option at just $2,200. I’m particularly interested in four-man combos that prominently feature Narvaez, Yelich and Vogelbach as a three-man core, with Urias, Garcia, Peterson and Adames alternately making up the fourth Brewer bat. Giddyup!

Update: Luis Urias is sitting this one out.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland A’s vs. KC RHP Jackson Kowar

The A’s are never all that popular as a team stack on big slates, and today they could be in for an offensive explosion against Jackson Kowar, who carries a 54.00 ERA after one career start — a rocky debut outing against the Angels on Monday. The usual suspects are in play here, from “Mashing” Matt Olson ($3,500) to leadoff hitter Mark Canha ($3,700) and a slew of low-priced options including Tony Kemp (just $2,000!), Jed Lowrie ($2,900) and Sean Murphy ($2,400). I’m also quite enamored with Seth Brown ($2,400) as a risk-reward value option, and I’ll be mixing and matching a few different four-man combinations of these six A’s hitters in my large-field GPP entries.

Update: Both Lowrie and Canha are not starting on Saturday.

Other stacking options: NYY RH bats vs. PHI RHP Vince Velazquez, CIN LH bats vs. COL RHP German Marquez

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some scattered T-storms in the Colorado vicinity tonight, so we’ll leave that game off our discussion since I don’t have to tell you to deploy bats in Coors if the game looks like it’ll play. Let’s get to it!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Trevor Bauer ($11,000)

We haven’t seen the Bauer ceiling game in a while, and I suspect this could be the night facing the offensively challenged Miami Marlins. There’s no need for a ton of analysis here in determining the top arm of this slate, as Carlos Rodon is an option, but was initially scheduled to start Thursday against the Twins and was pushed back after experiencing back and hamstring tightness. Add to that the prospect of some ugly weather in Chicago and he’s just not nearly as safe as Bauer — although there’s plenty of upside if that game plays without delay. I’ll let that determination fall to the weather watchers, but for me, it’s just easier to build around the chalky but upside-laden Bauer against a Marlins team that hits poorly on the road.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($8,600)

For two Saturdays in a row, I’m going to be using Anderson in the hopes he can avoid the big inning and settle down a little sooner than his previous start. The price has come up a bit (from $7,900) since last weekend, but Anderson’s opponent has a team total under 4 and he’s capable of striking out 8-10 batters. I’ll be using Bauer as my go to SP in most of my MLB DFS builds tonight, but Anderson makes plenty of sense on a relatively thin pitching slate without many “sure thing” candidates for 40+ fantasy points.

Contrarian GPP Value: Triston McKenzie

Domingo German might get a bit of ownership in MLB DFS tonight, as the Yankees take on the Orioles, but McKenzie is coming off his first win of the season on May 6, so he’s rested and ready. While the addition of Jarred Kelenic has added some firepower to the top of the Seattle batting order, the Mariners have a relatively high K rate (26.3% — tied with the Marlins) and there’s lots of upside at this price point for McKenzie — who’s tailor made for FanDuel scoring with his high walk (8.37 BB/9 in five starts) and K rates (12.93 per 9 IP). If he can keep the M’s off the bases and avoid the big fly, he should make value and get you the 30-40 FD points needed to pay off his meager $6,900 salary.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros vs. TEX RHP Dane Dunning

I actually like Dunning a bit in MLB DFS — he’s got swing-and-miss stuff and is coming off a career-high 10K performance against the Mariners on May 9 where he settled down his demons and got back to throwing his effective slider. Unfortunately, the Astros offense has just the kind of firepower and plate patience to make Dunning’s day a long one (or short one, if we’re being honest). The miniscule team K rate (18.7% — lowest in the majors) is a great indicator for stacking against pitchers like Dunning who rely heavily on the K to get outs. While Dunning has fared better against LHB in the small sample of 2021 so far, the Astros are littered with lefty mashers and righties who maintain high wOBA against RHP. Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) is the highest-priced bat on Houston, but I’ll be looking closely at the red-hot Kyle Tucker ($3,400) as well as standard stackers Jose Altuve ($3,800), Alex Bregman ($3,700) and Michael Brantley ($3,100). In his last six games, Tucker has 3 HR, 10 hits and 9 RBI.

Value Stack: Philadelphia Phillies vs. TOR LHP Anthony Kay

The Phillies offer a bit of a discount from the Astros, but the upside is almost as high facing a young lefty in a minor league park with a high ERA (Kay: 10.24, with a 5.59 FIP). Rhys Hoskins ($3,300), J.T., Realmuto ($3,400), Andrew McCutcheon ($3,200) and just about any other Phillies hitter — Jean Segura ($2,800), Alec Bohm ($2,400) stand out as solid value options — made sense last night and they do again today. I like a few stacks today (more on that later), but this could end up being a huge leverage play on a day where they might get lower ownership than expected.

Contrarian Stack: Washington Nationals vs. ARI RHP Seth Frankoff

It’s hard to justify them as a contrarian play after they went off for 17 runs in Arizona last night, but some folks might consider it chasing ands other s will be naturally drawn to the Astros, Phillies and teams like the Indians (also a decent contrarian stack or one-off spot for one-off RHB like Jordan Luplow, Franmil Reyes and Jose Ramirez vs. SEA LHP Justus Sheffield). But the Nats are just loaded with hitters who are heating up like Trea Turner ($3,900), Juan Soto ($4,000) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,200), who has homers in consecutive games and went off for 40.4 FD points last night. Josh Bell ($3,000) and the underpriced Yan Gomes ($2,400) are solid options as well.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather concerns in tonight’s slate, so plug these Aces and Bases plays in with confidence!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Dustin May ($9,700)

We’ve got five or six viable “aces” out of 12 total SPs on tonight’s slate, including both pitchers in this game, GPP darling Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) facing the Texas Rangers in Globe Life Park, the young and talented RHP Zac Gallen (ARI) at home facing the Rockies, and veteran hurler Charlie Morton (ATL) in a tough matchup against the Blue Jays. But May stands out as the highest upside play given the fact he reached double-digit Ks in his last start, the game features the lowest projected total and the Brewers — his opponent, strike out at a 27.2% clip, the third-highest rate in the majors. You can save a few bucks dipping down to Brandon Woodruff, especially if the think the Dodgers bats will continue their scuffling ways — but May is a -125 favorite and could go underowned given the number of viable arms with slightly cheaper price tags.

Best Value: Zac Gallen ($9,000)

In his last start, Gallen looked absolutely dominant on the mound against a potent Braves lineup, limiting Atlanta to just one hit — a single from Freddie Freeman — and only one runner reaching scoring position. This scoreless gem from Gallen was his best start of the season and should give him ample confidence against a Rockies lineup that isn’t very good outside of Coors Field — sporting a ghastly 27 road wRC & 56 road wRC+ that are both dead last in the league. If Gallen made mincemeat out of the Braves, he should easily dispatch the Rockies. There’s a hint of risk here, as Gallen is still a young pitcher who’s learning his craft, but when he’s sharp, he’s REALLY sharp — and tough to hit.

Contrarian GPP Value: Blake Snell ($8,800)

It’s not really great value since he’s less than $1K cheaper than the top arm on tonight’s slate, but Snell makes a lot of sense as a low-owned GPP play. The former Cy Young winner has had only one truly devastating MLB DFS outing (April 13 @ PIT) this season, when he failed to get out of the first inning, and the rest of his starts have been, well…serviceable. The good thing is that he’s coming off the longest outing of the young season (5.1 IP in a no decision on 4/25 @ LAD) and he’s sporting a 13.50 K/9 so far in 20.2 IP. The Giants lineup does have a few scary righty-versus-LHP bats, like splits-dynamic Wilmer Flores and veteran sluggers Evan Longoria and Buster Posey — but I like his chances at a win and quality start if he can notch a couple more outs than he did in his last appearance.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Opener LHP Travis Bergen)

This game will be played in Dunedin FL at TD Ballpark, the Blue Jays slated to open with Travis Bergen and giving Tommy Milone the bulk of work as the primary middle reliever. Neither of these guys is up to the task of stopping the Braves, who are loaded throughout the order with power righty bats (and a lefty slugger (Freddie Freeman, $4,100) who over the course of his career has hit southpaws just fine. Freeman’s hefty price tag makes him less of a priority, but Ronald Acuna ($4,300) is worth the spend up and there are a few value bats to get in this stack: Marcell Ozuna ($3,300), switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,100), Travis d’Arnaud ($2,700) and 3B Austin Riley ($2,500). I didn’t forget about Dansby Swanson ($2,500), Pablo Sandoval ($2,000) and projected 9-hitter Gil Heredia ($2,900), all of whom could produce in a funky (and contrarian) 6-8-9-1 stack. But I think my favorite approach here is 1-3-4-5 or 1-3-5-7 — depending on who lands where in the final lineup. There’s also some opportunity to run back a game stack with some Blue Jays bats.

Value Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (LHP Austin Gomber)

I love the D-backs righthanders bats in this matchup, especially leadoff hitter Carson Kelly, who’s mashing the ball in a torrid start to the 2021 season (.340/.507/.717 through 73 plate appearances). Rounding out the 1-4 stack are switch-hitters Eduardo Escobar ($3,400) and Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,800) and lefty 1B/OF Pavin Smith, who’s been flourishing near the top of the order in the absence of Christian Walker and Kole Calhoun. Smith already has a homer, triple and double against LHP in just 17 AB this season, so I’m okay with him in this group. Other value options include Josh Rojas ($2,500) and the less appealing Wyatt Mathisen ($2,200).

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Jordan Lyles)

The Red Sox have just the third highest projected total after the Braves and Blue Jays, but they are really heating up at the plate. I love the 2-3-4-5 hitters in this game: Alex Verdugo ($3,200), J.D. Martinez ($4,200), Xander Bogaerts ($3,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,700), but there’s some value in Kike Hernandez ($2,700) in the leadoff spot and all of Christian Vazquez ($2,300), Marwin Gonzalez ($2,200) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,200) offer solid risk-reward upside at dirt cheap prices.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

OAK@BAL has a significant risk of postponement, and the projected pop-up storms in Atlanta take that game off the board for me as far as pitchers are concerned.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Trevor Bauer ($11,000)

Bauer may be a pretty insufferable social media presence, but he’s a damn fine pitcher who knows his craft as well as any hurler in the bigs. Over the past couple seasons, he’s sported a K/9 rate north of 12.0 and his xFIP is among the best in the game, just eclipsing 3.00. Bauer is the clear top dog, as the next most expensive pitcher on the slate is Kevin Gausman against the Marlins, and while the man formerly known as “Kevin Gascan” has been solid in 2021, the veteran doesn’t carry the same double-digit strikeout potential as Bauer. And Adam Strangis agrees in his 4/24 Rotation article that it’ll be tough to avoid Bauer tonight.

Best Value: Pablo Lopez ($8,200)

Lopez fared well against these same Giants in Miami just six days ago (6.0 IP, 9/2 K/BB, 1 ER) en route to 49 FanDuel points in a Marlins loss. If you want to fade the chalky Bauer and find some extra salary for a few more big bats, you can take your pick among Gausman or Lopez — though I always prefer the higher K upside on FanDuel. If Lopez can sneak out another quality start and notch a win this time, 50+ FD points is well within reach.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela)

The most obvious stack in play is in Coors, but we may have to get a little creative with who we pick since salary is an issue. If you’re spending down to Lopez at P, you can afford the vaunted 2-5 hitters, which include Rhys Hoskins ($4,200), Bryce Harper ($4,800), JT Realmuto ($3,800) and Didi Gregorius ($3,500), but using Bauer essentially takes RHBs Hoskins and Realmuto (the two less appealing of that group) out of play and necessitates lower-cost options like Alec Bohm ($3,200) and Mickey Moniak ($3,000). AS far as a game stack goes, the Rockies that offer the most upside are Charlie Blackmon ($4,000) and Raimel Tapia ($3,100).

Value Stack: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Kyle Gibson)

While Gibson has turned in three straight effective, quality starts after a disastrous debut in 2021, the Chisox are one of the only MLB DFS stacking options available that offer upside at a relatively low cost. Since there’s a dearth of bargain pitching options, you should be rounding out your Coors stacks with one-offs or looking the way of the potent sub-$3K hitters in the Windy City, including Yoan Moncada ($2,900), Luis Robert ($2,800), Yasmani Grandal ($2,700) and Andrew Vaughn ($2,100). There’s some threat of rain in this one, but probably not enough to cause a significant delay or postponement,

Value/Contrarian Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Pablo Lopez)

If you’re strictly a single-entry MLB DFS guy who hates hedging with multiple lineups, this slate may not be for you — but multi-entry GPP junkies should be considering some Giants stack against Lopez, as the splits indicate you should be able to harness some leverage and tournament-winning upside with some lefty bats in San Francisco. I know — using Lopez in other builds assumes he’ll be successful — but our need for cheap bats notwithstanding on this small slate, we have t find ways to get different. Mike Yastrzemski ($2,800), Brandon Belt ($2,700), Tommy La Stella ($2,600) and Alex Dickerson ($2,700) make sense as a Giants stack in this crazy world. Run it back with Jazz Chisolm, Jr. ($3,100) and/or leadoff hitter Corey Dickerson ($2,700) for the Marlins.

Good luck!

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Welcome to round 2 of the 2021 MLB season. I’m Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian today. Some pretty big shoes to fill! My goal today will be to provide you with enough information to make solid choices. I won’t necessarily provide you the most popular plays, but the plays that will hopefully differentiate your lineups from the rest of the field and provide you enough success to get a solid ROI. Let’s breakdown some MLB DFS!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

We have an unusually small slate for a Friday with only 6 games on the main slate. This is what happens when Opening Day is on a Thursday. There’s an earlier matchup between the Red Sox and O’s but the focus of my write-up will be the Main Slate on Draftkings. Tonight we have 2 aces making their debuts with their new teams; Trevor Bauer ($10.5k) and Blake Snell ($9.7k). We have the Dodgers playing in Coors against a pitcher that struggled mightily in 2020, with an implied total (7.3) to show for it. We have Wilmer Flores ($3.7k) against a lefty. And finally, we have a game between 2 teams that combined for 1 run yesterday

Now that we have that out of the way, let’s dig in to today’s slate.

MLB DFS Picks – Pitchers

Today we have 2 aces going in Bauer and Snell, both making their debuts for their new teams. I have a hard time paying $10.5k for Bauer today with him pitching in Coors Field. As a petty Mets fan, I hope he gets shelled today.

My SP1 today will be Snell. You’re getting an $800 savings from Bauer and he’s also pitching in a much more pitcher-friendly environment. Although you wouldn’t know it if you looked at the box score from beautiful San Diego yesterday. In a Covid shortened season last year, Snell k’d more than 11 per 9 and had a 15% swinging-strike rate. One of the things I love about Snell is his ability to get batters to chase pitches out of the zone. Last season he had a chase rate of over 35%. Although Arizona managed to knock out Darvish early yesterday, I think they’ll be over-matched today against Snell. I’m locking him in as my SP1.

Where we see more options today is with your SP2. My first lean will be Pablo Lopez ($7k). The Rays are at an automatic disadvantage as they lose the DH. The Rays will probably trot out 4 lefties, but 3 of the 4 have K rates over 20% against righties. Lopez last season k’d more than 9 per 9. Last season he was also able to limit hard contact with a hard hit rate of less than 29%. Finally, he had a ground ball rate of 28.6% which will certainly help limit any damage the Rays can do.

My other lean for SP2 tonight is Jesus Luzardo ($7.9k). The Astros are a tough lineup so this will be no easy task, but Luzardo is one of the more talented pitchers going tonight and Houston losing Springer helps as well. Last night’s game was much closer than the final score shows. The A’s bullpen gave up a ton of late-inning damage. In his young career, Luzardo has been able to k both righties and lefties at a rate of greater than 24%. Like Lopez, Luzardo has the ability to keep the ball on the ground, with a 45% ground ball rate in 2020.

My locks today will be Snell and Lopez.

MLB DFS Picks – Top Stacks

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. The Dodgers will be a popular place to go tonight. They’re facing off against Antonio Senzatela who was just not very good last year. He pitched to a 4.81 xFIP, gave up a ton of hard contact (35.4%), and didn’t miss many bats (8.1% swinging strike %). The stars are aligned for the Dodgers to put up a very crooked number.

My favorite stack tonight is the White Sox. They’re facing off against Andrew Heaney who pitched to a 4.15 xFIP last year. Heaney also gave up a ton of hard contact with a hard-hit rate of nearly 37%. I’m going to focus on 1-3. Tim Anderson ($5.5k), Luis Robert ($5.3k), and Jose Abreu ($5.8k). It’s an expensive stack, but a very high ceiling stack. Anderson has a .388 wOBA against lefties and Abreu has a .404. The White Sox has an implied total of only 4.09. I think they crush that number today.

My final recommendation of the day is the Mariners. With this lineup, I may choose to just pluck a few random batters as they are dirt cheap. They’re facing off against Johnny Cueto who is about 5 years past his prime. Cueto struggled last year. He pitched to a 4.78 xFIP. He barely misses any bats anymore as seen by his 8.3% swinging strike last year. Seattle has some cheap bats in the meat of their lineup that will help you pay for some Dodger or White Sox bats. One bat I’ll be focused on here is Mitch Haniger ($3.1k) leading off. He’s returning from a pretty nasty testicle injury in 2019. Evan White ($2.7k) is another bat I’ll be focused on if you choose to skip over Abreu. He’s close to min priced and should be batting clean up.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Tonight’s slate, although small, has the makings of a fun slate. A powerful lineup in Coors, 2 aces making their debuts for their new teams, Wilmer Flores against a lefty. You will also have the opportunity to use 1 ace and 1 SP2, or 2 SP2’s. I’ll be using Snellzilla and Lopez!

Weather does not look to be a concern anywhere tonight.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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9/10 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

Tonight’s 9/10 MLB DFS slate is packed with SP2 options in good matchups, and we also have a Coors Field game with an expected run total of 13.5. This is going to make paying for these bats extremely difficult with the current SP pricing meaning you are going to have to take some chances or fade the game completely.

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On theDefense

WalkerBuehler vs. Baltimore Orioles

$11,600 FD / $12,300 DK

The Orioles have little to play for besides personal gloryat this point. Baltimore is also striking out 22.7 percent of the time versusRHPs with a low wRC+ of 88. Despite Buehler’s dicey track record pitching onthe road, he has struggled more heavily against much better teams. Which theOrioles are not, especially as of late coming in 25th in MLB in runsscored over the last seven days. On this 9/10 MLB DFS slate, with tons ofoptions, Buehler could leave you walking to the cash line at a low ownership.

ZacGallen vs. New York Mets

$9,100 FD / $11,200 DK

The Diamondbacks at Mets currently has the lowest expected run total on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate. We also have way too many pitchers worth taking a shot on tonight to write about everyone and I am seriously trying to get separation. Although the Mets are highly unpredictable and swinging hot bats as of late, Gallen has had success this season versus New York, allowing two earned runs over five innings with five strikeouts the last time he faced them at home. With a positive park shift heading to Citi Field tonight I am taking a shot here.

WadeMiley vs. Oakland Athletics

$8,900 FD / $9,300 DK

I have had a hard time taking Miley Coyote seriously this season. In past DFS years he has absolutely killed me. Like in his last start facing Seattle who lit him up for five earned runs without registering an out. Well, tonight I say he bounces back facing an Athletics team he has a 1.83 ERA versus over three starts this season with 11 strikeouts. If you wanted to start to get some Colorado bats on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate, you could consider using him as your SP1 in GPP play.

Defcon 4

The savings department on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate is worse than a .99 cent sale at a dollar store. They all either have bad matchups or are just plain bad. So, in order to get some Colorado bats in, the risk level must go to Defcon 4.

NathanEovaldi vs. Toronto Blue Jays

$6,600 FD / $7,300 DK

The Blue Jays are striking out 25.9 percent of the timeversus RHPs with a .303 wOBA and wRC+ of 88. Toronto is also batting a pathetic.179 over the last seven with a wRC+ of 54, which certainly raises my attentionlevel. Regardless after watching Eovaldi tame the Twins in his last startallowing only one earned run over five innings, some serious consideration onthis 9/10 MLB DFS slate needs to be given here.

RonaldBolanos vs. Chicago Cubs

$6,400 FD / $6,800 DK

This is where we at on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate, with Ronald Bolanos. On most nights I would rather light my head on fire and put it out with a hammer rather than use a pitcher like this, especially in this match up. The Cubs are one of the best offensive teams facing RHPs this season and offer huge blow up potential. This is total risk here, but Bolanos did tame the D’Backs in Arizona allowing two earned runs over five innings in his only start. With a strong park shift at home I am taking a shot here in large field GPPs.

Walker BuehlerDodgers123159.110.731.581.020.29742.50%12.40%3.283.3
Wade MileyAstros1341567.733.171.270.26950.50%15.70%3.354.42
Zac GallenDiamondbacks3468.
Ronald BolanosPadres0166300.26338.90%0.00%35.2
Nathan EovaldiRed Sox1048.19.124.471.860.30745.60%20.40%5.774.82

On theAttack

There are a ton of options to attack on this 9/10 MLB DFSslate. The top two are obviously the Cardinals and Rockies tonight in Colorado.So, here are three others to look at tonight if you are fading this game. WhichI do not recommend tonight.

Ty Blachvs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Talk about ugly? Blach has allowed 20 earned runs over hislast four starts. Now he is home facing a powerful Dodgers team in a small parklike Baltimore. On this 9/10 MLB DFS slate I am all in here.

Notable Bats

A.J. Pollock is posting a .394 wOBA versus LHPs and is 3-for-8 with a home run off Blach.

Justin Turner wallops LHPS to the tune of a .384 wOBAwhile going 5-for-16 lifetime off Blach with a home run. Keep your eyes peeled herethough, he has an ankle injury and may sit.

Chris Taylor has a .362 wOBA versus LHPs whilebatting .318 facing Blach over 22 at ABs.

MitchKeller vs. San Francisco Giants

Although the Giants are hit or miss most nights, but they docome cheap on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate. With Keller allowing 15 earned runs overhis last 16 innings I will be sprinkling in some Giants bats tonight.

Notable Bats

Mike Yastrzemski Is posting a .341 wOBA versus RHPs battingleadoff most nights.

Buster Posey is posting a .324 wOBA versus RHPs whilebatting .400 over the last seven days.

Brandon Belt has not homered in 10 games now puttinghim on my watch list.

TrevorBauer vs. Seattle Mariners

Talk about change, Bauer has allowed 28 earned runs over hislast five starts. Despite Seattle batting .183 over the last seven days I seesome serious runs scored at low ownership on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate.

Notable Bats

Daniel Vogelbach is sporting a .367 wOBA versus RHPsthis season

Kyle Seager is 8-for-20 lifetime off Bauer with sixRBI while posting a .327 wOBA versus RHPs this season.

Omar Narvaez has a .349 wOBA versus RHPs batting cleanup.

Justin TurnerDodgers13153827806729.10%16.40%0.2910.3630.394
Chris TaylorDodgers10735611434779.00%26.70%0.2660.3150.384
A.J. PollockDodgers7228713433947.70%22.30%0.2610.3030.362
Mike YastrzemskiGiants9134219555127.60%25.70%0.2690.3410.393
Buster PoseyGiants1054126403508.00%16.30%0.2570.3240.303
Brandon BeltGiants139555167056413.90%20.00%0.2310.3230.245
Kyle SeagerMariners8836721465629.80%20.70%0.2460.3670.376
Daniel VogelbachMariners130514307174016.50%25.70%0.2140.3490.325
Omar NarvaezMariners116431195849010.00%19.30%0.2780.3270.277

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

Blach is is poor enough where most of the Dodgers bats would achieve this over tonight, including Turner.

Even though Buehler is a top tier starter his home/road splits favor home. Mancini hits RHPs well batting .282 this season and I am not expecting a shutout here. Over all the way.


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We have a nice split slate today which includes a Reds at Cardinals doubleheader. So, make sure you keep an eye on the catching situations. To make things a bit nicer we also have Coors Field to consider. If you are playing the early slate the pitching situation is rather pricey on DraftKings so some risks will have to be made to afford them decent bats. With an exciting day in 8/31 MLB DFS upon us, I bring you today’s pitching picks.

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$8,700 FD / $9,200 DK

Dakota Hudsonvs. Cincinnati Reds

With limited pitching options, and high pricing, Hudson stands out for me as the top choice on this early 8/31 MLB DFS slate. Besides facing a Reds team striking out 25.1 percent of the time versus RHPs, they are also 20th in MLB in wRC+. In Hudson’s last three starts facing the Rockies, Brewers, and Royals he has not allowed an earned run. At home today where his ERA is over a point lower at 2.97, I am all in on Hudson.

Jason Vargasvs. New York Mets

$6,300 FD / $7,500 DK

Without going too heavy into this limited 8/31 MLB DFS slate, which is also subdivided further between the two sites, in GPP play on DK I am throwing in Vargas. Now make no mistake here, there is a ton of risk, and this play has more to do with track record than the actual numbers for the team he is facing. The Mets batter LHPs quite well to the tune of a .348 wOBA, and wRC+ of 118. As much as I hate it, If I am going to take a chance outside of Domingo German, or Trevor Bauer today to save money on DK, I am looking here despite the huge blowup risk. After all, Vargas has had four straight dominant starts in a row allowing two earned runs over his last 22 2/3 innings.

StephenStrasburg vs. Miami Marlins

$11,200 FD / $11,200 DK

Anyone who knows me has a look of astonishment on their face right now, including my editor, that Clayton Kershaw is not my top dawg tonight. But with a spotted past versus the Diamondbacks, and having a negative ballpark shift, as usual, why not just attack the Marlins?

The Miami Marlins are striking out 25.9 percent of the time versus RHPs, and are 30th in MLB in both wOBA, and wRC+. Strasburg has completely dominated the Marlins in two out of three starts this season, even striking out 14 over a 7 1/3 inning shutout the last time. With the Marlins whiffing 28.4 percent of the time over the last seven I see no reason not to make the fish take a huge bite of Strasburger on this 8/31 MLB DFS slate.

Brock Burkevs. Seattle Mariners

$7,600 FD / $7,200 DK

Who is Brock Burke? Since getting the callup Burke has posted two back-to-back quality starts, facing the White Sox on the road, and Angels at home. Over these two starts he struck out nine batters over 12 innings while only allowing one earned run. On this 8/31 MLB DFS slate he gets the benefit of a Mariners team striking out 24.3 percent of the time versus LHP with a low wOBA of .317. Now factor in the Mariners batting .186 over the last seven days and this one seems to easy.

Dylan Bundyvs. Kansas City Royals

$7,300 FD / $7,300 DK

In case you have not been paying attention, Orioles pitching has been pretty good as of late. Believe me, I am just as surprised as you. The last time Bundy faced the Royals he threw seven innings of one run ball while sending seven batters back to the dugout shaking their head. With Kansas City in a bit of slump as of late I can’t see any reason Bundy does not come out and put up similar numbers on this 8/31 MLB DFS slate.

Tim Melvillevs. Pittsburgh Pirates

$6,200 FD / $7,200 DK

Jerry Colvin, did you just put a pitcher from Colorado at home in this article? The answer is yes, yes, and one more yes. On this 8/31 MLB DFS slate, or any slate for that matter, I like to throw a “what if” into a large field GPP. Plus, it may be nice to have another player besides Mike Trout to make Melville puns about.

At the end of the day taking chances is how you win in DFS. Tim Melville, in his first two starts, has 10 strikeouts over 12 innings while only allowing one earned run. This includes facing a Braves team at home with similar numbers versus RHPs as the Pirates. Despite all the risk, and the Pirates’ .339 wOBA versus RHPs, good young pitchers often dominate teams the first time they face them, and I see no reason so far why this should not be the case today. Just remember, this is far from cash game friendly.

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Gerald Colvin makes his Win Daily debut with your best 8/19 MLB DFS Pitching Picks.

Trevor Bauer vs. San Diego Padres

FanDuel $10,200 / DraftKings $11,700

I take Trevor Bauer in any way, shape, or form, it makes for an exciting night in 8/19 MLB DFS Pitching. You just never know exactly what to expect out of him which often leads to a serious lack of fingernails by the end of the night. Regardless, strikeouts equal fantasy points and the Padres certainly provide plenty of opportunity here. San Diego is carrying a strikeout rate of 26.3-percent with a wOBA of .303 versus RHPs. Bauer is exceptionally tough on RHBs, which the Padres are fully loaded with. Sit back, try and relax, and enjoy the ride.

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KyleGibson vs. Chicago White Sox

FanDuel $7,400 / DraftKings $10,100

Gibson, over his last two starts versus the White Sox, has 18 strikeouts over 13 innings while only allowing two earned runs (one per start). The White Sox struggle versus RHPs, striking out over 25 percent of the time with a wRC+ of 86 on the season. His 8/19 MLB DFS Pitching price on FD is a real bargain tonight at $7400 while on DK I certainly still prefer Bauer for $100 more.

WadeMiley vs. Detroit Tigers

FanDuel $9,000 / DraftKings $11,200

I just want to go on record and say I hate Wade Miley. His K/9 is sub-par for DFS standards, and I have a DFS past riddled with bad memories involving him as the lead star. As much as I hate it, this is a sweet 8/19 MLB DFS Pitching matchup for Miley Coyote tonight. The Detroit Tigers have a difficult enough time putting their socks on their feet, never mind the struggles versus LHPs, where they are tops in the league in strikeouts. Over the last seven days they are striking out nearly 35 percent of the time while batting a pathetic .233. Just keep in mind in his last start versus the Tigers he did allow four earned runs.

IvanNova vs. Minnesota Twins

FanDuel $7,700 / DraftKings $8,300

I am not going to lie to you here, this one is more dangerous than walking down train tracks after having too much to drink. The Twins are absolutely a high-powered offense versus RHPs and this play is all about Nova’s recent performance. He has only allowed two earned runs in his last five starts including a complete game shutout in his last outing versus the Astros. It seems to me if he can tame Houston for a night, Minnesota is also doable. On a small 8/19 MLB DFS Pitching slate with most of the viable SP2 options on DK being high-priced, I would be willing to take a chance here in GPP play.

DillonPeters vs. Texas Rangers

FanDuel $8,300 / DraftKings $9,000

It’s hot in August, and even hotter in Texas. Peters is my least favorite play of the bunch, but on a limited slate you must take some chances, and this certainly qualifies as one. In Peters’ last two outings he has posted great fantasy numbers facing the Red Sox in Boston, and Pirates at home, striking out 14 batters over 12 innings. He has given up his fair share of runs but the strikeout upside has bailed him out both times. With the Rangers striking out 25.7-percent of the time versus LHPs he is in a 8/19 MLB DFS Pitching spot to deliver some more fantasy gold, or fantasy lemons.


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We had a full 15-game slate on Sunday July 28. All points and price values for the 7/29 MLB DFS Winners and Losers are based off DraftKings.

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7/29 MLB DFS Winners

Jose Altuve ($4,500)

Jose Altuve was one of the MLB DFS Hitting Picks of Destiny for Sunday. Check them out every weekend on Win Daily. Altuve went 3-for-5 with a home run, three RBI and a run. Altuve is creeping up to .300 for the year with a .293 batting average. Look for him to continue racking up hits and getting on base on Tuesday’s slate.

Altuve’s Outlook

Jose Altuve may just be the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He is batting .415 with six home runs and 16 RBI in his last 15 games played. If Altuve continues to have pop in his bat like the way he is hitting currently, it could give the Astros a chance to play the Wild Card winner come the playoffs. The Houston Astros are off today, but begin a series against the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday. The Indians have Shane Bieber on the mound, but that shouldn’t stop Altuve from continuing the hitting tear he has been on of late.

Jorge Polanco ($4,900)

Listed as a shortstop stud on the MLB DFS Hitting Picks of Destiny, Jorge Polanco had a solid day at the plate against the Chicago White Sox. He went 2-for-5 with a homer, two RBI and two runs scored. He jumped on Dylan Covey, who failed to record an out, with a home run in the first. Look for Polanco to continue hitting on Tuesday’s slate as well.

Polanco’s Outlook

Jorge Polanco has been hitting well in the past week, batting .300 with three homers and seven RBI. His next game is an interleague matchup on Tuesday in Miami against the Marlins. Look for him to continue being productive at the plate. The Marlins have Zac Gallen on the mound and should have trouble pitching to this lineup.

7/29 MLB DFS Losers

Chris Sale ($16,500)

Chris Sale had a lofty price tag on him last night against the New York Yankees and failed to live up to it. He went 5.1 innings and allowed six runs on five hits with three walks and seven strikeouts. He picked up his 10th loss of the year, which is the most since he was traded to Boston. Fade Sale in his next start.

Sale’s Outlook

Chris Sale has been struggling. He is 2-3 with a 6.05 ERA in his last seven starts with just 38.2 innings pitched. Sale’s next start is slated for one of the games during the doubleheader on Saturday in New York against the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers seem to have Sale’s number this season, so avoid him for his next start.

Trevor Bauer ($11,100)

Another pitcher who did not have a good outing yesterday was Trevor Bauer, who went 4.1 innings while allowing eight runs (seven earned) on nine hits and four walks with six strikeouts. He has a 3.79 ERA after the outing and a 1.21 WHIP. Bauer should be solid in his next outing, whether it is in Cleveland or somewhere else.

Bauer’s Outlook

Trevor Bauer had a tough fifth inning, where he imploded and threw the ball over the center field wall from the mound before being taken out of the game. This could potentially be the last image we have on Bauer in an Indians jersey. He had a bad start, but was solid beforehand. If he stays on Cleveland, his next start will be Saturday against the Los Angeles Angels. Look for Bauer to bounce back in his next game.

7/29 MLB DFS Injury Update

Robert Acuna Jr and Jean Segura were involved in a collision at second base yesterday. Acuna slid into Segura’s knee and both players left the game. Acuna had neck stiffness, but felt better after the game and expects to be in today’s lineup. Segura suffered a contusion from being hit with the J.T. Realmuto throw on the play.

The New York Yankees placed CC Sabathia on the 10-day IL with right knee inflammation. Tyler Wade was recalled from Triple-A.

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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 10-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 1130-12 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

Fantasy MLB Stack: Cincinnati Reds

vs. RHP Peter Lambert (COL): 5.90 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Cincinnati Reds bats get a major boost today. They get a sub par pitching matchup at their home park, one of the more hitting friendly venues in the league. The Reds are hitting well above their season averages over the last two weeks, slashing to a .354 wOBA, .191 ISO, and 117 WRC+ against right handed pitching. Peter Lambert is not the best pitcher, carrying an average 5.93 ERA, 5.61 FIP, and 4.59 SIERA. He is allowing batters to slash to a .382 wOBA, .344 OBP, and .586 SLG. Lambert is allowing 2.45 HR/9 to left handed batters and 1.99 HR/9 to righties. He is allowing a ton of hard contact (47%) to lefties and only has a LOB% of 57 against them. His splits are much better on the road, but Great American is not an ideal place for any pitcher that struggles with the long ball. Stack the Reds with confidence this afternoon.

Preferred Stack: Eugenio Suarez ($3700 FD|$5300 DK), Jesse Winker ($2800 FD|$4100 DK), and Yasiel Puig ($3300 FD|$4500 DK).

Fantasy MLB Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. RHP Dylan Covey (CWS): 6.10 Runs

**Low Risk

Third time’s a charm? The Twins offense has disappeared the last two games. Ivan Nova put on another excellent performance last night. What in the world is going on? I’m going to remain on the Twins, one of the best hitting teams in the league against another bad pitcher. Covey carries a 6.04 ERA, 5.62 FIP, and 5.75 SIERA over 47 innings pitched. He tends to struggle more to lefties, allowing them to slash to a .415 wOBA, .548 SLG, and .444 OBP over 19.1 innings pitched. Smaller sample size so I’ll take it with a grain of salt, but it is noteworthy to say Covey has been successful (or lucky) at home against righties. They are only slashing to a .179 wOBA, .262 SLG, and .163 OBP over 12 innings pitched. The Twins averages remain high over the last two weeks against right handed pitching. They are slashing to a .384 wOBA, .284 ISO, and 140 WRC+.

Preferred Stack: Jorge Polanco ($3700 FD|$4900 DK), Max Kepler ($4000 FD|$5300 DK), and Nelson Cruz ($4600 FD|$5800 DK). Jason Castro ($2700 FD|$4100 DK) and Luis Arraez ($3000 FD|$4200 DK) for the third day in a row make my top value plays.

Fantasy MLB Stack: Houston Astros

vs. RHP Dakota Hudson (STL): 5.10 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Dakota Hudson gets a home matchup against the red hot Astros. They are hitting extremely well to right handed pitching recently, slashing to a .353 wOBA, .223 ISO, and 126 WRC+. Hudson has been exceptional this season, allowing only one game with more than three earned runs. He owns a 3.61 ERA, 5.15 FIP, and 4.95 SIERA. He has true splits, allowing lefties to slash to a .380 wOBA, .515 SLG, and .392 OBP. Something has to give here and I’ve got money on the Astros taking it to Hudson this afternoon.

Preferred Plays: Yordan Alvarez ($4000 FD|$5200 DK), Yuli Gurriel ($3700 FD|$4500 DK), and George Springer ($4400 FD|$5000 DK). I also like Carlos Correa ($3600 FD|$4300 DK) and Jose Altuve ($4100 FD|$4500 DK).

Honorable Mention

Fantasy MLB Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. LHP Danny Duffy (KCR): 5.10 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Jordan Luplow ($2600 FD|$4000 DK), Francisco Lindor ($4400 FD|$5000 DK), Oscar Mercado ($3700 FD|$4400 DK), and Carlos Santana ($3600 FD|$4100 DK).

Fantasy MLB Stack: Tampa Rays

vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 5.40 Runs

Preferred Plays: Austin Meadows ($3400 FD|$4700 DK), Nate Lowe ($2800 FD|$4000 DK), Travis D’Arnaud ($3200 FD|$4300 DK), and Tommy Pham ($3800 FD|$4400 DK).


  1. Jason Vargas LHP (NYM): 4.30 Runs
  2. Robbie Ray LHP (ARI): 3.40 Runs
  3. Trevor Bauer RHP (CLE): 3.85 Runs

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