Toronto Blue Jays

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a full 15 game final slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.  With today’s slate we are going to see a much smaller tournament pool with NFL in play.  Today’s a day to scale back as the risk just won’t worth the reward. 

When Manfred designed up having a second Wild Card spot what is occurring in the American League is probably what he had in mind.  There is a logjam in the AL for both Wild Cards.  The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners are all battling for the 2 spots and are within a game of each other.  If the Red Sox and Yankees both lose today and the Blue Jays and Mariners both win they are in.  The Red Sox and Yankees are tied and cling to a 1 game lead over both the Mariners and Blue Jays. They win and they are in.

If we head out west today, the Giants and Dodgers are still battling for the NL West crown.  We have the two teams with the most wins in the league.  The winner of the NL West gets a few days off while the loser has to take on the red hot Cardinals in the Wild Card game.  They will both be bringing it full force today. 

This is shaping up to be the best final Sunday of baseball we’ve had in years.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Logan Webb ($8.7k) vs. San Francisco Giants – After a horrendous start vs. the Padres, Webb returned to form against the Dbacks with a 5 inning 6K effort.  I’m not as worried with the going back to the well again against the Padres because it wasn’t really the Padres that did him in last time out.  His command was off and never looked comfortable. 

The Giants need to Webb to shine today to get them the W.  The Padres over the last week have been very underwhelming.  They have a 24% K rate and have hit for very limited power.  I’m locking in Webb today and not looking back. 

Dylan Cease ($9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – I don’t expect Cease to throw more than 90 pitches today so we probably only get him for 5 to 6 innings.  In his last outing vs. the Indians he went 5 innings and struck out 9 before leaving with an injury.  No pitcher today has the K upside as Cease, even if he has an abbreviated outing. 

At only $9k I’m ok stomaching a shorter than normal outing.  Cease’s main strike out pitch is his slider and if it’s on today, he’s going to have a solid game.  Up and down the Tigers lineup they have whiff rates exceeding 30%.  Look for Cease to have a solid game today and end up as one of the highest scoring pitchers.  The only thing that may stop him today is the weather.  So keep an eye on the forecast.  

Reiver Sanmartin ($7.1k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Sanmartin looked pretty decent in his first outing this year.  He was able to strike out 5 Pirates through 5.2 innings.  While the Pirates have been a pretty low strike out team this year, they’ve been striking out more of late.  Over the last week they’ve been striking out nearly 25% of the time. 

Sanmartin is getting the same match up against the Pirates but he should still be able to breeze through them again.  He mostly throws a slider to lefties and should face 5 of them today.  Those guys all have whiff rates over 35% against sliders.  I really like his chances of ending the season on a strong note. 

Outside of Webb, the pitchers that are in the playoff scenario spots all look like they have poor match ups.  Sale is facing a young stingy team in the Nationals that are all out to make a name for themselves.  There’s no better spot for them to do it in than this.  Ryu is not in good form and I can see the Orioles exploding on him.  Buehler is facing a Brewers team that will throw out a bunch of lefties.  That’s his weakness.  Tyler Anderson of the Mariners is very inconsistent and I have no faith in him.  

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Bruce Zimmermann – Blue Jays lose today and they are out.  If we look at Zimmermann’s outing vs. the Red Sox this week we’ll see a pitcher that gave up 2 hits in 4 innings of work while only allowing 1 runner to score.  Box scores don’t tell the whole story.  He also gave up a 58% fly ball rate, an 88% contact rate, and didn’t give up any soft contact.  He’s going to get hit today and he’s going to hit very hard. 

We have 3 guys in the middle of the lineup today that are just crushing lefties right now.  Bichette ($3.9k), Guerrero ($4k), and Hernandez ($3.4k) all have ISO’s against lefties over .364 since early September.  We’re not talking about a small sample size.  While we normally talk about picking our pitchers first, I’m building the rest of my lineup today around them. 

The other guy I’ll look to add in here is Santiago Espinal ($2.1k).  He’s cheap and will help us stomach paying the salaries of the Blue Jays core.  He’s also red hot over the last week with a .955 OPS and 8 hard hits in just 20 at bats.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jameson Taillon – On the final day of the season, this is my ode to Brian.  I fully expect the Rays to play their regulars today.  If they don’t, their regulars will have had 4 days off between games and that’s just asking for too much rust heading into the playoffs.  I also expect them to try their hardest to get he Yankees to have to play even more baseball. 

Taillon is a good pitcher, but if he has a weakness it’s lefties.  They have a 54% fly ball rate vs. his him this year and a near .200 ISO.  His walk rate also jumps from just 4% to righties to 12% against lefties.  The Rays are normally pretty under owned, but I think we see that get to a whole new level today. 

After a 3 homer day yesterday Lowe ($3.6k) sits just one away from 40.  He gets it with a lead off homer today.  I’ll also want Meadows ($3.1k) and Choi ($2.4k) here.  They have ISO’s at .200 or better vs. righties over the last month.  The Rays were a big staple of the WDS family this year and there’s no reason to change it on the final day of the year. 

Seattle Mariners vs. Reid Detmers – Mariners get one of the best match ups of the teams playing for their playoff lives.  Detmers hasn’t pitched much this year in the majors due to not being good and also sitting out a month with Covid.  On the year he has a 6.48 xFIP and has given up a 46% fly ball rate.  He’s been pretty bad against both sides of the plate so I’m going to go with Mariners that hit lefties the best. 

Hello Mr. Haniger ($3.9k) and your .301 ISO against lefties over the last month.  I also really like Torrens ($2.3k) here who sports a .242 ISO over the last 30 days vs. lefties.  I wouldnt’s shy away from lefties like Kelenic ($3.2k) and Seager ($3.2k).  Detmers shouldn’t last long in this game and righties from the bullpen will eventually pitch.  Look for the Mariners to squeak into an extra playoff game tomorrow. 

If you want to play some Orioles today, I wouldn’t blame you.  Ryu is attackable and hasn’t been in the best form in his last couple of outings.  The Orioles have also had some success vs. him this year. 

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

What a final day of the season we have in store today.  While the contests are smaller, it should be a fun day.  We have 6 games today that involve teams with playoff implications.  That’s nearly half the games today.  Sit back, play some DFS, and enjoy the last day of the regular season. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

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