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Augusta National Golf Club. Few places on earth evoke the same emotion from even the most rudimentary golf fan. Perhaps for you it is the legacy of the greats having won here. Perhaps it is the iconic Masters theme song. Or perhaps it is the stash of pimento cheese sandwich ingredients stocking your fridge, still costing just $1.50 on course, ready for the greatest weekend in golf (recipe here). Either way, we all know that this week is special in not only the world of golf, but for sport in general. And having successfully tipped 4 of the last 7 Masters (Willett, Garcia, Woods, and Matsuyama), hopefully our 2023 Masters Picks are special too.It truly was a spectacular March where we bagged Kurt Kitayama at 60/1 after round 1, Taylor Moore at 70/1, and Nick Bachem at 100/1. That stunning run has elevated our profit further for the year to +13% on the DP World Tour, a whopping +59% on the PGA Tour, and +41% overall. That truly puts these selections within the top echelon of golf analyst...

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Justin Thomas looks set for a strong showing headlining our Genesis Invitational PicksThe WM Phoenix Open played out perhaps even better than the PGA Tour could have hoped. As we moved into our first full field designated event for 2023, the leaderboard was littered with studs. Although we don't expect him to feature, it will be great to see Tiger Woods return to play here. But, it is worthy to know that a few value plays can still pop through for a ceiling week. Nick Taylor played brilliantly all week, even shooting a 65 in the final round, and still came up short of a resurgent Scottie Scheffler. It is a promising reminder that there is still value to find in these events as we move into our Genesis Invitational Picks. We had a very live chance in Xander Schauffele as our favourite play for the week. Schauffele was one off the lead 2/3rd of the way through Saturday. An untimely bogey on the 13th was a stopper to his momentum. He never ever really recovered. The final round still show...

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golf analysis, winning golf bets, how to win at golf betting
Get that winning feeling with WinDaily Sports

An insight into my golf analysis process and key indicators to identify success.

Golf betting can be tricky. The majority of fields have 140+ golfers to chose from, every week there is a different course to study, and it is perhaps the sport most exposed to the elements.

However, this also presents opportunity. With a large number of variables and potential players to select, bookmakers often have a tough time correctly setting golf markets. Likewise, daily fantasy golf providers often produce misprices.

In this article, I will provide a brief overview of my process. I provide some of the tools and key indicators I use to select my golf betting tips. Find out below why I am banned by multiple bookmakers.

2022 Golf Bets Tips Record

16 outright winners
DP World Tour +24% ROI
PGA Tour +26% ROI

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To make it easy, we have a fantastic team at WinDaily Sports who are here to do all that heavy lifting for you. With myself (@deepdivegolf), Sia (@sianejad), Joel (@draftmasterflex), and Spence (@teeoffsports) you have some of the best experts in the game to guide and coach you in your golf betting.

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WinDaily Golf Analysis Website Articles


Within the WinDaily wesbite, you can find all manner of weekly articles for both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

My articles provide in-depth golf analysis and golf betting picks for the tournament. I particularly see gaps in the market that provide an edge in DP World Tour tournaments, with weather forecasting, as well as player and course analysis. You can view my proven winning record on my Twitter page (@deepdivegolf).

We also have fantastic weekly DFS ownership projections from Steven Spolardi (@spolardi) which are simply the best in class. These articles are on the WinDaily website and are essential for gaining ownership leverage, especially in large GPP tournaments. Example here: https://windailysports.com/the-pga-championship-ownership-projections/

Key Golf Betting Terms

This article works in conjunction with our “Golf DFS 101: How To Win More At Golf DFS” article. If you have not read that article yet, you can find it here.

Before we get started on some of the processes I use, there are some key terms we need to know.

How are odds displayed for golf betting?

There are three main ways to display betting odds: decimal odds, fractional odds, and American odds.

In decimal odds, the amount is the total amount returned for every $1 bet. A $1 bet at odds of $10.00 will return $10.00. This is your original $1 stake plus $9 of profit.

In fractional odds, it is a ratio such as 14/1 (fourteen-to-one). They represent the profit won if the bet cashes. A $1 bet at those odds would return $15, being $14 of profit and the original $1 staked.

American odds vary whether a +/- sign is in front of the odds. Odds with a positive sign in front indicate the profit won on a $100 bet. +700 indicates that a bet of $100 will return $800, being the original $100 staked and $700 of profit.

If there is a negative sign in front of the number, this indicates the amount you would need to bet to win $100 of profit. Odds of -200 mean you would bet $200 to win $300 ($100 of profit plus the original stake). You will not often find these odds in golf pre-tournament other than in match-ups between two golfers.

Being based in New Zealand, I tend to use decimal odds when I provide my golf betting tips. I also denote my bets in units or points (pts). This means you can invest the amount that you feel comfortable spending.

What are the main types of golf bets I can make?

There are a few main markets that make up the majority of golf bets.

Outright Winner: Does what is says on the tin. You are betting the golfer to win the tournament.

Top Finish: Betting on a golfer to finish within specified number of places from the top of the leaderboard. Most bookmakers will release Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 markets for each tournament. Many will even offer Top 30 or Top 40 markets, which can be a good option for betting outsiders.

Be aware that most bookmakers will apply dead-heat rules to such bets. This means if you place a Top 10 bet and your golfer ties for 10th exactly with 4 other golfers, your odds will be divided by 4.

Match-Up Bets: These bets typically pit two golfers against each other. They can be placed across the entirety of the tournament or occasionally for a single 18 hole round.

Prop Bets: Of course, there are also a large variety of prop (short for proposition) bets to investigate. For example, will there be a hole-in-one at the tournament? It is best to avoid these, especially when you first start in golf betting. They can be fun, but also are more unlikely to be predictable nor profitable.

What are Each-Way Golf Bets?

Many bookmakers, especially outside of the USA, will offer each-way (E/W) bets for golf. This bet actually consists of two bets: the golfer to win the tournament and the golfer to place. The place terms are always displayed. The most common place terms currently are 5 places at 1/4 odds and 8 places at 1/5 odds. Note that dead-heat rules will also apply if your player ties for the exact number of places on offer.

These provide great value and present you with better place odds compared to a typical top finish market. Think of it as a reward from the bookmaker for also making a win bet alongside your place bet.

For example, you pick Rory McIlroy to win a tournament. You take him at $20.00 E/W with place terms of 5 places at 1/4 odds. If McIlroy wins the tournament, you would collect both the win bet and the place bet. However, say McIlroy finishes in 3rd place. You would then win the place portion of your bet. In this instance, $20.00 divided by 4 would return place odds of $5.00. However, pre-tournament his Top 5 finish odds may only have been $3.50. You gave yourself the opportunity to cash an outright win ticket, but also were rewarded with better place odds as a result.

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage. It indicates what the bookmakers believe to be the chance of a result occurring. You can calculate implied probability using the following formula:

(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability

There are also various websites that will perform this calculation for you.

For example, the odds for Jon Rahm are $20.00 (19/1 or +1900) to win a particular golf tournament. The bookmakers are saying they believe Rahm has a 5% chance to win the tournament.

What is Expected Value?

Every time you place a bet, your selection has an “expected value” or “EV”. In short, this indicates what you can expect the bet to win (or lose) if made over a long time frame at the same odds. A positive EV bet is a winning play. We expect it to return a positive amount over the long-run if made time and again. Conversely, a negative EV bet is one we expect to lose over time.

Tip 1: Look to bet value and think long-term

The biggest golf betting mistake I see is trying to pick the winner every week. This may seem slightly counter-intuitive at first. I mean, we want to pick winning golfers, right? The fact is, you can make a bad bet and win money. You can also make a good bet and lose money. Let me explain.

Pre-tournament, you decide that given your analysis Justin Thomas will play well this week. You place a outright win bet on him to win at odds of $40.00. This bet has an implied probability of 2.5% or one-in-forty times.

Negative EV

Say that the correct chance for Justin Thomas to win was 2% or one-in-fifty times. Whether Thomas wins or loses the tournament is actually irrelevant. This is a negative EV bet. The more times that you place the bet, then the more times you will lose than win over time. Even if Thomas does win the tournament, you still made a negative EV bet.

Positive EV

Let’s look at the opposite. Say that you know Thomas has been working with a new swing coach, he recently shot a low round at a similar style of course, plays well in the wind and you can see in the forecast strong winds are forecast. He is the wrong price with bookmakers and his fair odds are actually $33.00 or an implied probability of 3%.

Again, irrespective of the result, this is a bet that we want to make. It has a positive EV and, over the long-term, will win you money. Even if Thomas doesn’t win the tournament, you made a positive EV bet.

Short-priced favourites

You will rarely find that the top few golfers in the market present positive EV opportunities. The bookmakers know the majority of casual armchair golf punters will tend towards the top of the board. They will bet stars, names that they know, and golfers they want to cheer for. Bookmakers need to mitigate this risk and also boost their profits. Especially when odds are very short, you are unlikely to be getting any value.

My role is helping you to identify positive EV spots. I provide golf betting tips where the actual chance of a golfer winning is higher than the implied probability currently on offer. This is the only way to win in golf betting in the long-term.

Tip 2: Structure your golf betting carefully and precisely

People structure their golf bets in many different ways. You often find people betting a certain amount on every bet they make. Others will bet an amount in order to win a specific value. For example, they bet an amount required to win $1,000 at the odds on offer.

The optimal way to structure your bets should be based upon the difference between the implied probability and the actual probability of the event occurring. If the margin is wider between the two figures, then you should bet more. Your confidence interval will be higher. Essentially, based upon your analysis you are more confident of an edge to true odds existing and you want to push that advantage. If the edge is smaller, then you should bet less.

You will find with my golf betting tips through WinDaily Sports that I provide suggested staking. I will indicate what type of bet to make and how many units or points (pts) I recommend on each option. This makes it easy for you to construct your golf betting card ahead of the tournament.

How do I read the suggested staking provided for golf betting?

Let’s look at the below example of how my suggested staking is used:

Tom Kim
1pt E/W $40.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.50

In the above, my recommended bet is to stake 1 point E/W (1 unit to Win and 1 unit to Place). The place terms are indicated in brackets. The bookmaker has offered 8 places, with 1/5th the win odds if Tom Kim finishes in the Top 8. I also recommend 3 units on a Top 20 bet at $3.50.

Whatever you choose to make the value of your unit is up to you. 1 unit could be $5, $10, or $100. It really depends on what you are comfortable with and the size of your bank roll.

I would recommend always betting less than a maximum of 5% of your total allocated betting bank roll on any given tournament. You will encounter losing streaks and we do not advocate a “get rich quick” scheme. You will run into cash flow issues if you are betting too much of your bank roll on a given week. Instead, aim for a sustained systematic approach which leads to you growing your bankroll.

Most importantly, never bet more than you can lose. WinDaily Sports is a great community and we want you to be having fun. So, if it no longer is, then stop.

Tip 3: Top Finish Bets and Match-Ups are your bread and butter

I get it. Win bets are sexy. There is nothing better than placing your bets to then see one of your golfers come through to lift the trophy. It is even better when they are paying triple-figure odds!

The reality is that the wins you collect on your place and match-up bets are what will keep your wheels greased. Picking winning golfers is not easy. There are 140+ golfers who play in most tournaments and only one will ever win. And, even when you are regularly placing positive EV bets, it will sometimes be many weeks between win bets. Remember, you are looking at the long-term and following your process.

What you should be aiming for is to regularly be cashing place and match-up bets. One, this will mean that you are usually breaking even or making a small profit every week. When you do achieve a win bet, you will then reap the rewards and a larger profit. This keeps your cash flow positive and ensures you don’t lose your entire bankroll chasing Hail Mary win only bets.

Secondly, if you are regularly seeing your golfers place in the top end of the leaderboard that is a positive sign. There is still an element of luck in golf. The bounce of a ball, a few putts that just lip out, or a random gust of wind can be the difference between 1st and 20th. The more often your golfers are ending up in a position to potentially complete a victory, the better.

Tip 4: Meteorology and Agronomy


When looking at golf betting analysis, you need to continuously monitor the weather. It is baffling that in a sport so affected by the elements that so few golf bettors will even bother to check the weather prior to tournament start. Check the weather when initially analyzing the tournament. Check the weather in the last 24 hours before first tee-times. Basically, check the weather continuously before and throughout the tournament.

As mentioned in my DFS 101 article, you can get an edge depending when golfers tee off. Tee-times typically of two distinct groupings between a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon start time and vice-versa. This can create a weather edge for players teeing off at a particular time. If Friday afternoon is forecast for heavy winds and tricky scoring conditions, you may want to lean towards players starting their first two rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. You will often hear of a AM/PM stack or PM/AM stack providing a potential advantage in a given week.

Not every weather forecast is the same. The weather is inherently difficult to predict as is, but many websites rely on free and basic models which are less accurate.

At WinDaily, we use a combination of the best premium weather forecast models on the market to provide the most accurate weather predictions that we can. I’m here to make this easy for you and provide the best information available. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord, particularly in the 24 hours prior to tournament start, to give yourself an edge!


You also want to check the condition of the course. Many courses on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour have been on the circuit for many decades. This brings with it a wealth of data that you can delve into (but you still want to pay attention to any changes ahead of the tournament, such as longer rough or reshaping of certain holes).

However, there are always a few new courses to interpret each season. Three of the four golf majors – the PGA Championship, US Open, and The Open Championship (or British Open) – are often played on courses that have not been played on professionally for several years if ever. I always recommend for new courses to find video flyovers, photos, and watch interviews. You want to try to get a feel for the course and what type of player it may suit.

Grass Types

Grass type also makes a difference. This is particularly true on the greens, where different types of golf can see varying performance by golfers. The most common greens are Bermuda, Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and Paspalum.

Bermuda is found commonly in Florida and typically in warmer climates. It can be somewhat easier to read. Bentgrass is typically found in areas which have cooler summers and in coastal areas. Poa Annua has a reputation for getting bumpy in the afternoon and can be tricky to putt on. Paspalum is a very sturdy grass that is highly resistant to salt. It is generally only found in coastal and tropical courses. Being a hardy grass, it can grab the ball more than other surfaces and prove sticky.

You want to pay particular attention to prevailing wind, wind gusts, any rain forecast, and ground condition. A dry, firm course in windy conditions will play a lot more difficult to a soft course in calm conditions. This can influence both tee-time stacks, but also the type of golfer you want to look for.

Tip 5: Look for Live In-Play Golf Betting Opportunities

There remains great opportunities for live in-play golf betting. As mentioned, there are a huge number of factors that bookmakers need to take into account. Not only are there a huge number of players to account for, but bookmakers also need to know where they each are on the course. They are often too slow to react and adjust their odds. Often bookmakers identify the number of holes a golfer has left in the round and not account for whether those holes are potential birdie holes, for example.

Weather can play a factor for in-play bet opportunities. With tournaments typically running over four rounds, the weather can change quickly from a Thursday to Sunday. For example, we spotted a potential weather edge develop recently at the Italian Open. Saturday afternoon was suddenly forecast for very high winds. This meant golfers further back on the leaderboard and teeing off earlier Saturday morning were going to enjoy easier scoring conditions. We tipped Robert MacIntyre live in-play, who managed to take advantage of the conditions and went on to win the tournament at odds of 125/1.

Tip 6: Identify Key Improvements in Stoke Gained Trends

If you’re new to Strokes Gained and have not read my Golf DFS 101 article, head over for a basic run-down on Strokes Gained here.

Per that article, ball-striking metrics tend to be “stickier”. If a golfer has made recent improvement in their approach play, this is more likely to be retained to subsequent tournaments. This is one of the key trends I always look for in players that appear to be a good course fit. I also like to identify whether the increase in SG: APP has been linked with recent improvement in driving accuracy. These two metrics combined give an indication that the golfer’s swing is in good shape and they are striking the ball well.

If a player has made recent improvement in SG: APP, driving accuracy, and if they have previous positive course form, that is a situation I want to pay close attention to. Do be aware to check how recent those performances were, as you will want to give less weighting to tournaments which were a month or longer ago.

Putting statistics are not that important (usually) for golf betting

SG: PUTT, followed by SG: ATG, is the most volatile metric. So much of short-game comes down to touch, feel, and confidence. Putts can be off by a mere centimeter and miss, or a golfer can get hot and suddenly make every putt they see.

Yes, there are better putters than others. But, as a rule, a recent hot putting performance does not necessarily mean they will putt well the next tournament. I prefer to see a longer stretch of improved putting before I start giving credence to the fact that the golfer has actually made some permanent gains with the flat-stick.

Regression to the mean

One of the biggest mistakes I see bettors making is not comparing recent improvements to a golfer’s longer term baseline. If Viktor Hovland is hitting the ball well on approach, that is almost a given as he is one of the best iron player’s in the game. We expect him to hit the ball well on approach. However, if Hovland starts hitting more fairways with his driver or making improvements in his SG: ATG, then I am beginning to get interested.

Likewise, if a golfer has had a great week putting, we would expect the golfer to experience regression towards their mean. As putting is more volatile, we typically also experience this regression more quickly. Basically, we would expect the golfer’s form to return towards their average baseline.


There are a huge number of factors that goes into successful golf analysis. The majority can’t, or simply won’t, put in the time required to be able to identify positive EV golf betting opportunities. It always pays to remember that it is the bookmakers job to analyze golf tournaments better than you to set fair pricing. At WinDaily, we are here to help and give you that winning edge!

If you’ve made it this far through the article, are you curious about giving WinDaily a go? Join now with a no obligation 1-month free trial so you can test out the website and services available. If you decide to keep the product, it is the best value on the market at just $5.99 for access to ALL sports.

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The Hero World Challenge always provides an intriguing event to cover. On one hand, we have near on the top 20 players in the world all competing in the same event. Hopefully, this provides a tasty entrée of what is to come in 2023 where the newly elevated events promise to present frequent opportunities for the best players in the world to compete in the same week.On the other, from a betting perspective the Hero World Challenge presents some qualms. Often, inefficiencies in betting markets occur further down the board in larger fields. Basically, correctly pricing who is the 30th most likely to win in the field becomes infinitely more difficult. That presents us opportunities. In a small field like this, the market looks fairly efficient with few holes and a decent bookmaker edge.As such, I likely favour a lean towards DFS this week rather than betting markets. Further, I will also prefer head-to-head and cash game plays for DFS. Given the condensed field, you will need to select the...

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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Masters and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Reduced field of 93 golfers but all the big names – it is the Masters, after all
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 50 and ties & 10-stroke rule NOT in effect
  • Last year: Tiger Woods (-13)
  • The course: Augusta National (Donald Ross)
    • Par 72: 7,475 yards
    • Bentgrass greens
    • Tournament is being played in November, so the weather (low-to-mid 70s) and course are different than the normal April event
    • The Ryegrass overseeding requires constant watering in the fall, so it’ll be wetter than normal; there’s also rain/storms in the forecast most of the day Thursday
  • Still no “gallery” for this tournament
  • The defending champ (Tiger) is barely playing (and not playing well) and certainly doesn’t look 100 percent.
  • There’s a dude who can hit it nearly 400 yards in the field (Bryson)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, SG: Approach, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Around the Green, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – The big boy’s been inciting some audible gasps at his length this week during practice rounds (we’re talking driver-7-iron on the 575-yard Par 5 second hole and driver-wedge at the 13th), and there’s a lot of chatter about how his new power approach could dominate. Bryson’s similarly innovative arm-lock style on the greens could also exorcise his Augusta putting demons, so I’m grabbing plenty of GPP shares – even at top dollar.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – While I don’t blindly follow my PGA DFS models, Thomas is at the top of mine this week. This is his fifth appearance at Augusta National – where he’s scored better and finished higher in each attempt. He’s still without a top ten, but JT is remarkable with his ball-striking here – ranking 11th, sixth, second and third in greens hit over the last four years. The recent form has been solid, with a win and three runners-up in the restart, and I’m willing to take a shot at what could be lower ownership than Jon Rahm and DJ, the next two guys on the pricing chart,

Jon Rahm ($10,500) – The Spaniard’s recent results have been staggeringly good – with six victories, five seconds and three third place finishes worldwide since he finished, he notched a top 10 at last season’s Masters. That T9 finish was on the heels of a fourth-place finish here in 2018 – so it’s safe to say he doesn’t have major problems contending here, pun intended.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,000) – The two missed starts due to COVID-19 could have thrown a wrench into his prep, but over his last six events that straddled that spell, he’s almost in a class by himself. DJ had a T2 here in 2019 – his fourth consecutive top 10 (he was injured in 2017) – and my biggest concern about him is always his putter.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,800) If you were wondering who was second in my model, look no further. The X-Man has been described as a “quick study” at Augusta, going from 50th in 2018 to T2 at the 2019 Masters. In total, he’s played 13 majors in his career and has made the cut in 12 and finished six times among the top 10. His form is solid too, so I can’t imagine a much better core play in cash or GPP.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Cantlay

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Patrick Reed (DK $9,200) – He’s only average off the tee, which may be a bigger factor than normal is this course plays soft, but his game around the greens have helped him win here before (-18 in 2015). A fine GPP option with winning upside.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,100) – I’d be fine coming in around or a bit under the field’s ownership percentage for GPPs, because I have a hard time seeing him defend without much form to speak of, but you can’t count him out at Augusta.

Adam Scott (DK $8,900) – Scott won at both Riviera (in February) and in December at the Australian PGA and doesn’t have any top 20s since then. But he won at Augusta in 2013 and has five career top 10s here. He loves this place (16 made cuts out of 18) and you can’t really blame him.

Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – I’d love to have the brass to put my Finau GPP ownership at 100 percent, but I’ve been burned by him before. The longtime tournament “bridesmaid” has played quite well in a short sample at Augusta (T10 in 2018 and T5 in 2019) and he’s been a relatively consistent golfer this season.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – Despite a near perfect fit for the venue, Matsuyama has actually placed worse in each year he’s played Augusta since 2015, but it’s a different time and he’s putting with confidence lately and dominating par 5s – a game changer for this ball-striking maestro. I’m definitely interested in GPPs if he doesn’t get too popular.

Jason Day (DK $8,400) – He’s long enough and sharp enough around the greens to win here, with five straight Top 30s at Augusta and plenty of good mojo in his last few starts. In a perfect world, awesome dudes like Jason Day would win more majors.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,600) – The numbers in my focus stats for Fitzpatrick look like the heartrate monitor of an astronaut – he’s no worse than 33rd (BoB Gained) and no better than 23rd (SG: P) in any one category. This week, I’m most excited about his elite short game, and most concerned about his average length.

Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Bubba Watson, Matthew Wolff (GPP), Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Phil Mickelson (DK $7,500) – Lefty is like an older Tiger without the back issues and has similar struggles to Woods keeping it in the fairway – but he’s still made four out of his last five cuts at Augusta. He’s also got three green jackets and 15 (wow) top 10s, his last Top 5 coming via a T2 in 2015.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,300) – My model is not kind to Smith, who fares poorly in several of the focus stat categories – but he’s 3-for-3 here with a T5 in 2018, and he’s a solid mid-level value considering his steadily improving play and string of made cuts since the memorial in July. Even his fellow Aussies think he’s got a shot this year in his fourth Masters appearance.

Lee Westwood (DK $7,200) – I’ll throw out his missed cut and focus on his record in the last decade here, which includes five top 10s since 2010. He’s not without his risk, as he hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s still pretty long off the tee for an older fellow and there’s lots of upside at this price.

Kevin Kisner (DK $7,100) – He’s far from a bomber, but Kisner is always good with the putter and around the greens, and he can compete in tough fields. His record here isn’t as good as the similarly priced Matt Kuchar, but he’s 4-for-4 here and could be primed for a Top 10 if the stars align.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,100) – The ultimate GPP wildcard, Champ will get the nod in my large-field tourneys at about a 15-20 percent clip, depending on this masher’s projected ownership. He’ll be there because of two factors – his ranking atop the SG:OTT category and his growing confidence in tougher fields.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – No signs of decay in this witty Brit, who remains among the Top 50 in the world rankings and usually plays well at Augusta, with 12 made cuts in 13 tries. Pair that with a great price and the No. 29 ranking in my model and you get a guy worth using in all formats.

Francesco Molinari (DK $6,700) – He’s way too cheap and can get insanely hot with the putter — and while it took him a while to warm up to Augusta, his last two finishes (T20 in 2018, T5 in 2019) suggest he’s learning the ropes. Molinari has played just twice since February, but the T15 at Houston last week looks like an upward arrow to me.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,600) – Lanto could be ready to make the jump into the OWGR Top 50, but Augusta makes for a difficult virgin test. The Masters rookie is far from a cash game play and may not even crack the Top 20, but he’s No. 36 in my model and could end up in a few of my GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Shane Lowry, Jason Kokrak, Erik Van Rooyen, Bernd Wiesberger, Zach Johnson (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Matt Wallace (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (cash), Corey Conners, Christian Bezuidenhout (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Adam Hadwin (DK $6,500) – He’s no doubt a longshot to win (250-1), but he’s 2-for-2 at Augusta, he’s popping in all my models and he has the second-shot chops to finish in the Top 20 here. I’m all over him this week and he’s an early leverage-play staple of my single-entry GPP builds.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,400) –Glover occupies the spot in this column that Patton Kizzire took up last week (he finished T11), and there’s a similarity between the two players – they can both roll it really well. If Glover can find fairways and make the cut, a Top 25 is well within reach at a venue that’s given him some trouble before.

JT Poston (DK $6,200) – A slight fellow with decent length off the tee, Poston is another guy that isn’t awful at anything. He’s a first-timer at Augusta but if the course is playing easier than usual, he could make for a fine value at this near-minimum price.

Additional punts: Chez Reavie (cash), Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Victor Perez, Charles Howell, Jimmy Walker

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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Strong field of 78 golfers, including defending champ Tiger Woods!
  • No cut
  • The course: Sherwood Country Club (Thousand Oaks, CA)
    • Par 72: Approx. 7,100 yards (Jack Nicklaus design)
    • Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens
    • Elevation changes, fast greens and cooler weather could keep scores in check
    • Longer hitters may have slight advantage because of temps, but it’s not a long course
    • Getting hot with the putter will help
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better%, SG: T2G, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Around the Green, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Xander Schauffele (DK $11,200) – Schauffele squandered a 36-hole lead at the CJ Cup as Jason Kokrak won for the first time on the PGA Tour, leaving Schauffele with his fourth second-place finish since his last win – way back in January 2019 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This week, he’s the most expensive golfer and makes for a fine play in all formats because of his accuracy off the tee, his “no-cut specialist” status and all-around complete golf game. Whether or not I use him in GPPs depends on ownership as we approach lock.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – Rahmbo finished the 2019 season in the PGA Tour’s Top 20 in GIR and this week will have hopefully shaken off some of the rust that plagued him in Las Vegas. There’s no reason to fade him this week and plenty to like about his performance in the WinDaily projection model (second after Xander). I love him as a GPP play this week.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton finished T3 last week at Shadow Creek and now has five Top 25s in his last six starts – made all the more impressive considering he’s played a limited schedule. There aren’t many players better T2G than Hatton, who brings plenty of upside to the ZOZO.

Patrick Reed (DK $9,600) – Reed is eschewing mechanics and metrics en route to his approach – which places more emphasis on feel. He’s not the best off the tee, but he’s a SG hero with one of the best short games in golf. As long as he’s not missing every fairway, he should do well at Sherwood.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Justin Thomas (cash), Webb Simpson, Tony Finau (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,200) – After firing a disappointing opening-round 75, Hovland settled down and played the next 36 holes 9-under par ultimately finishing in the Top 15 at Shadow Creek. His domination of Par 5s could prove to be an enormous help this week (there are five Par 5s at Sherwood) as he seeks another PGA Tour win.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Wolff got off to an abysmal start last Thursday with an opening round 80, and pretty much never recovered in the no-cut CJ Cup. He’s still one of the longest hitters in the game (averaging 311.6 yards per drive in 2019-20) and the SG: Off the Tee stat is an important one this week at Sherwood, which is not far from where Wolff grew up.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,000) – Because he’s struggled recently and hasn’t played much, it’s easy to forget that Tiger won the ZOZO last year when it was held overseas. At the time, he was coming off a two-month layoff, so I’m not that concerned with rust, especially at a no-cut event on a course he’s dominated (five titles – all from the Hero World Challenge – at Sherwood).

Daniel Berger (DK $8,900) – Berger fares very well in the WinDaily model and is a tremendous buy-low value after a few pedestrian finishes over his last four tournaments (T28 at Shadow Creek and T34 in the U.S. Open).

Harris English (DK $8,800) – English missed the cut at the Shriners a couple of weeks back, but consistently finishes in the Top 10. He makes for a great cash game play and works for tournaments as well.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,400) – His finishes have steadily increased week-to-week since the Tour Championship, and while he occasionally misses a cut, that’s not a problem this week. He’s a fine value in this price range and has the T2G chops to win here.

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,800) – Ancer played some impressive golf at the Shriner’s with steady play in the mid 60s all week (4th place w/ 66-66-65-67), and finished T28 last week at the CJ Cup. If the putter can get hot again, he’s looking like a great play under $8K.

Also consider: Bubba Watson, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Russell Henley, Adam Scott (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Paul Casey (DK $7,500) – The value play of the $7-8K range, Casey finished T69 last week but maintains plenty of upside in GPPs despite his inconsistent play this season. He’s a dynamic player who showed us at the PGA Championship how well he can play when he’s finding his groove.

Justin Rose (DK $7,400) – I have my concerns about his short game, but I’ll give Rose a shot in some GPPs at a no-cut event based on his low price and the theory that his solid T2G game will eventually come around.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker who’s stepped up his game lately,Munoz makes for a viable DFS play at a really affordable price.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,200) – We said last week that Smith doesn’t seem to be intimidated by strong fields and he wasn’t – en route to a solo 11th place. If his ball-striking recovers, he could sneak into the Top 10 this week.

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,000) – Ownership might be high this week since he finished T7 at the CJ Cup, but his price is still very affordable and he’s a solid enough putter to make up for a few wayward shots.

Cameron Champ (DK $6,800) – Champ may be a longshot to win, but he’s really long off the tee and he’s the kind of outlier player I like using in GPPs. With no cut and his length possibly coming into play at elevation with the lower temperatures than normal, I’m a fan.

Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Last week was Kokrak’s timenow Higgs is looking for his time to shine. In his search for his first PGA Tour win, a strong T2G game will help his cause,

More value golfers to consider: Brian Harman, Ryan Palmer (GPP), Talor Gooch, Alex Noren (GPP), Byeong Hun An, Corey Conners (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $6,500) – The WinDaily model loves him this week and I’m too intrigued by his upside to worry about the T65 finish last week. I’m jumping right back on board at this price.

Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – As Sia pointed out on the ZOZO stream, Hoge is a really good player who just doesn’t hit it that long off the tee. He’s a longshot, but he’s got Top 25 upside this week.

Michael Thompson (DK $6,100) – Thompson won the 3M in July and has struggled since. But he’s near the minimum price on DK and clearly has the upside to make sense for some GPP lineups.

Additional punts: Joel Dahmen, Richy Werenski (GPP), Tyler Duncan, Ryo Ishikawa

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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 2020 U.S Open at Winged Foot and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Major tournament field of 144 Golfers
  • Cut: Top 60 and ties
  • No Brooks Koepka
  • The course: Winged Foot Golf Club (Mamaroneck, NY)
    • Par 70: 7,469 yards – A.W. Tillinghast design (1923)
    • Poa Annua Greens
    • Brutal rough, tight fairways, oppressive length and scary greens – the bloodbath superfecta
    • The course has hosted some memorable U.S. Opens, including “The Massacre” in 1974 (won by Hale Irwin at +7) and Phil Mickelson’s epic collapse in 2006 (I was right on the 18th fairway watching it) where Geoff Ogilvy prevailed with a +5 tournament score
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Fairways Gained, Proximity (200+ yards), Bogey Avoidance

Before we get into the picks this week, let’s talk a little about how this is not your typical tournament. Taking into account the season change, the conditions, the unfamiliarity with the course for the majority of field, and the history of U.S. Opens at this storied venue, we could see the winning score in the +5 to +8 range.

That means we don’t necessarily need a slew of birdie makers; the course has only one hole that’s considered a “birdie hole” by the players – the 321-yard Par 4 6th hole. We certainly want talented golfers who can hit fairways, fly in some under-the-wind approaches like D.J., scramble with the best of them and make some putts, but we don’t need to emphasize things like Birdie or Better% and Opportunities Gained.

I think exceedingly poor putters are out, and really awesome putters might be too because it’s nearly impossible to gain a lot of strokes with the flat stick this week given the terrifying green complexes.

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – DJ is the hottest golfer on tour and has the exact set of skills to dominate here. We’ve learned a lot about his mettle the past several weeks and he’s ranked No. 7 overall in my model, with Fairways Gained being the only stat category where he’s outside the Top 10.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – We’ve watched Rahm (who’s No. 3 in my model) wrap up the season with of the best values in the “All-around Ranking” in tour history, and he continues to be a presence on the leaderboard in the toughest tournaments. The possibility of a meltdown scares me a bit, but I do think he’s one of the top three to watch.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,500) – Rory will be in a bunch of my GPPs along with alternating combos of DJ, Morikawa and Webb Simpson, but that approach means I’ll have to roster some punts, which is fine. I’m incredibly excited about the prospect of seeing this man play this course under these conditions, because he could lap the field.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,000) – The sticker shock could keep some folks off his DFS coattails, and his elite ball-striking could carry him into position on Sunday. He’s going to be tough to fit with some of the other studs, but I’m making it a priority.

Also consider: Justin Thomas (large-field GPP only), Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Webb Simpson

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Daniel Berger (DK $9,200) – Berger actually finishes second in my mixed model (Webb is first), and he’s really been playing well since the reopening, when he notched a win at Colonial, added a T2 and a pair of third place finishes.

Tiger Woods (DK $8,600) – It’s a little crazy that Tiger – who knows how to make pars on tough golf courses and grind out Top 10s – isn’t getting more love this week. His 2006 MC at Winged Foot following the death of his father looms large as a narrative, and I’ll be rooting for him.

Patrick Reed (DK $8,500) – On the other end of the feel-good spectrum, we have Reed,who will undoubtedly call upon the Prince of Darkness to keep him out of the rough and summon another U.S. Open Top 15 finish. I don’t know if he can win, but he can contend.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,000) – Fitzpatrick (No. 10 overall in my mixed model this week) is famous for keeping his ball in play and his elite short game, which he’ll need to save par on some of these tough Par 4s. The wispy Englishman finished second on tour in SG: Putting, and while he’s been inconsistent at times, he seems to show up for majors.

Harris English (DK $7,900) – A shoo-in for Comeback Player of the Year, English is elite when it comes to avoiding bogeys and three-putts, he’s Top 15 in both Prox. 200+ and P4: 450-500, and he’s sixth in my overall model. I’ll be at like 50 percent, and he’s my favorite player looming around $8K.

Matthew Wolff (DK $7,700) – What Wolff lacks in experience he makes up for with talent and a flair for the dramatic. I’ll only be using him in my balanced GPP builds and without high expectations, but I like the price and it’s a tournament where the X-factor could come into play.

Also consider: Tony Finau (GPP), Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Louis Oosthuizen (cash)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Brendan Todd (DK $7,400) – I honestly think Todd could be the best golfer in this price range considering his steady play this past year and his growing confidence at tougher venues. A good bet for a Top 20 and a guy who could surprise on Sunday.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,300) – Poulty finished in the top 10 here in 2006, but my model is unkind to him. I’ll emphasize experience over the data for him, because he’s a survivor – and just the type of golfer I want rounding out some of my GPPs.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $6,900) – Van Rooyen doesn’t normally get a lot of press, and when he has, he’s disappointed with some less-than-stellar play and some ill-timed MCs. But this might be the spot to roll him out, where his strengths (SG:BS and approaches from 200+ out) will help tremendously.

Chez Reavie (DK $6,800) – I’ve run a few different models emphasizing higher percentages among the stat categories we discussed, and Chez finished among the Top 10 in all of them. He’s a sneaky good player and he won’t be intimidated by the venue or the carnage he sees along the way.

Kevin Streelman (DK $6,700) – Another darling of my models, Streelman’s form has been pedestrian at best lately. But he’s No. 16 overall in my model and I trust his ability to hit fairways, avoid the majority of trouble and post some decent scores.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,700) – Hubbard is also among the Top 20 in my model this week, and I’ve been impressed by his game in 2020. He’s made the cut in nine of his last ten tournaments and he’s pretty cheap.

More value golfers to consider: Billy Horschel, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Ryan Palmer, Rasmus Hojgaard, Brandon Wu

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (DK $6,500) – His MC at the PGA will keep the masses from rostering him, but this is talented golfer who could easily finish among the Top 25.

Max Homa (DK $6,400) – Homa gets love from my mixed model (No. 14 overall) with solid ball-striking numbers and excellent ranks in avoiding bogeys and navigating long par 4s. He’ll be in 20-25% of my GPPs.

Joel Dahmen (DK $6,400) – Dahmen has the overall game to finish in the Top 20 and he’s done that a lot in 2020. Plus, he’s just too cheap given his upside.

Additional punts: Mike Lorenzo-Vera (GPP), Lanto Griffin (GPP), Robert Macintyre, Romain Langasque, Andy Sullivan

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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust Open helping you find some winning teams in DraftKings GPPs!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Smaller tournament field of 124 Golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • Stacked playoff field
  • The course: TPC Boston
  • Par 71: 7,308 yards – Arnold Palmer design and Gil Hanse/Brad Faxon redesign
  • Penn 4-A Bentgrass Greens (Bentgrass fairways as well)
  • Smaller-than-average greens
    • Favorable weather expected, so no major imbalance in the draw
    • First time Northern Trust is at TPC Boston, so course history should be for Dell Technologies, which has been hosted at this course
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,100) – Longer hitters tend to fare well here, and Bryson actually notched a victory on this course in 2018 at the Dell Technologies. Without too much penal rough to stymie Bryson if he misses fairways with his accurate blasting approach, Bryson – who may be the best putter among the highest priced players as well – makes for the best high-priced GPP play with winning upside.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,800) – Rory has good course history at TPC Boston, and while he’s playing sub-par golf in comparison to his lofty standards (and the rest of the expensive guys), this should be a comfy place to rebound – as it plays to all his strengths. I may even try to squeeze in a few Rory/Bryson teams with all the capable golfers in the $6,000 to 6,500 range.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,000) – Another top performer with winning upside, Rahm could easily win this thing if he’s firing on all cylinders. Solid ball-striking and a complete short game mean he’s one of my favorite plays in any format.

Also consider: Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jason Day (DK $9,300) – Day’s ball striking, putting and overall game look like he’s returning to his form from a few years back, and he’s a great play in all formats. A world-class player with a great attitude, he’s bound to be popular – but I just can’t fade him.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay’s past few tournaments have been marred by poor putting and usually one bad round thrown into the mix. He chekcs all the boxes, so if he can get the putts to roll in, he makes for a great play in single-entry and large-field GPPs.

Patrick Reed $9,000) – He’s definitely going to be popular, so he fits best in cash games – but there’s definitely enough upside to go all-in with him here since he’s striking the ball pretty well.

Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – Finau’s tee-to-green numbers(10th on tour) are excellent this season, and like Bryson, his tendency to mis fairways shouldn’t burn him too badly here. A solid shot at a Top 10 and plenty of winning upside, and one of the only options I really like in the $8-9K range.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,000) – The missed cut at the PGA could keep his ownership low, but we all know how good this guy is. Normally the Englishman in this price range I’m most intrigued by is Matthew Fitzpatrick, but he might struggle here as a first-timer. Hatton is a better ball striker and he finished T12 in 2018 at his TPC Boston debut. At just $8K, he’s going to be hard for me to avoid.

Matthew Wolff (DK $7.900) – The talent and competitiveness of Wolff make him a plausible GPP play with winning upside, but I’d likely stay away from him in cash games, because it’s his first go-round in Boston.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,600) – A few weeks ago, I wouldn’t have considered Champ, but a closer look at his improved play around the greens makes me take notice.

Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash) Tiger Woods (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Paul Casey, Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Harris English

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – He feels super risky even with the price drop, but Lowry has the game to finish in the Top 15 or so and continue his playoff dreams. A tough competitor who won’t have to deal with bad weather this week, the Irishman will be among my GPP value plays.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner looks like a much better player every week, and he seems to be getting used to competing against the best. Another guy who is often plagued by one or two bad rounds putting, Varner could be ready to make the jump and stick around for a few playoff weeks.

Doc Redman (DK $7,400) – Redman is rolling lately in the SG: Ball Striking category, and he’s maturing with his short game. There’s clear upside in his game and the mustache seems to be working its magic.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman plays well in stronger fields and has some recently impressive course history (third place in 2017, T21 in 2018), so he’s a solid GPP wild card.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,000) – With more top 10 upside and ball-striking ability than many of the other players in this price range, Niemann is a risky pick but could play well here if his putter doesn’t completely abandon him.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker, Hadwin will make a few of my Rory/Bryson builds so I can find some value in this $7K range. He’s Canadian, so the switch back to Bentgrass should help.

Bud Cauley (DK $6,600) – Among this group of players who’ve fared poorly in stronger fields or have seen their game evaporate in recent months, Cauley stands out as a confident player who could fare well at this venue.

More value golfers to consider: Matt Kuchar (Cash), Ryan Palmer (Cash), Joel Dahmen, Max Homa (GPP), Emiiano Grillo (GPP) Kevin Na (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes,

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Talor Gooch (DK $6,500) – He’s a birdie maker with some GPP upside, but the competition makes for tougher sledding. Still – he’s one of the safer options in this depressed price range, so he’s a great choice for all kinds of builds.

Sepp Straka (DK $6,300) – Straka is hitting more greens this year and making more birdies. He’s a risky play (and he missed the cut last week) but we’ve seen him step up his game and the switch back to Bentgrass should help his putting.

Additional GPP punts: Rory Sabbatini, Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Matt Jones, Matthew NeSmith

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The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 PGA Championship. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.As I referenced in my Range article, majors tend to force the cream to the top. The PGA Championship is no different as I'll have seven of the top golfers in the nine and ten thousand range.Players priced $10,000 and higherJon Rahm $10,500 (Model #1, PM Wave, Wind Rank 8th, Projected Ownership 16%)Justin Thomas $11,300 (M4, AM, W1, 22%)Xander Schauffele $10,000 (M11, AM, W15, 24%)Brooks Koepka $11,100 (M15, AM, W40, 18%)Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000Patrick Cantlay $9,400 (M21, AM, W31, 21%)Dustin Johnson $9,000 (M28, AM, W49, 19%)Tiger Woods $9,200 (M45, AM, W19, 10%)Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000Collin Morikawa $8,600 (M7, AM,...

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The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at The Memorial. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

**I’m going hard with stars and scrubs approach this week. Soft pricing tends to lead to balanced builds.**

Players priced $10,000 and higher

***These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.***

Rory McIlroy $10,700 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 17%)
Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 (M5, 17%)

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Xander Schauffele $9,200 (M7, 14%) – Schauffele finished T14 last week at the Workday Charity and is fifth in the field in strokes gained total over the last six weeks. With a T14 last year at The Memorial, Schauffele isn’t only a safe bet to make the cut but could be in the final pairing come Sunday.

Jon Rahm $9,300 (M12, 17%) – The talent has always been there and last Sunday, Rahm shot -8 to finish T27. That finish has catapulted his ownership but I don’t mind. This week I’ll be very overweight on Rahm this week.

Hideki Matsuyama $9,400 (M13, 15%) – Two top 20 finishes in his last two events out and three top 15 finishes at The Memorial, Matsuyama is one of the favorites. He started out strong last week, but his putter failed on the weekend. The speed of the greens should help a little with the flat stick and Matsuyama could find himself with another top 15 finish.

****Tiger Woods $9,000 (M17, 22%) – Ownership is just scary on him. I know he’s Tiger, but if he falters on his official return since the break, it’s a huge leverage spot****

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Patrick Reed $8,400 (M11, 11%) – It must be the name, that keeps pulling me back. Every other week, Reed burns me but when he gets hot, he can run through a field. Reed has four straight cuts made here at Jack’s place coming in. Reed in 2020 has averaged .74 strokes gained putting, in three of his last four events, he’s lost strokes on the green. If his putter reverts to average, this week could be very good for Reed.

Tony Finau $8,300 (M23, 14%) – He missed the cut last year, but prior he finished with three top 15 in four tries at The Memorial. Not exactly a lock as he’s missed a cut since the restart and hasn’t really payed off his price either. Don’t go overboard but Finau has the talent to compete with the best here.

Sungjae Im $8,200 (M28, 9%) – What has happened to Im? Sungjae was averaging .39 stroked gained on approaches this year before The PLAYERS (1 round). Since then he’s lost strokes in 4/5 tournaments on approach. Im is more of a play on talent, ownership and price.

Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,100 (M36, 6%) – I’m both surprised and delighted that Fitzpatrick’s ownership is projected so low. He finished T27 last week on the same course. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in four of his last five tournaments with two T15. He made his lone cut at The Memorial last year. I know around the green play comes in and Fitzpatrick isn’t the greatest, but the rest of his game is plenty sharp to overcome that.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,500

Kevin Kisner $7,500 (M18, 3%) – Kisner is an interesting option. On one hand the approach game and to a lesser degree around the green game are important at The Memorial. While Kisner does have a solid all around game, those are his weak points in 2020. On the other, we have a possible sub 5% owned golfer who in his last tournament (Rocket Mortgage) came in third. On top of that has made the cut here four out of the last five years. Those cuts made include TWO top 10 finishes. Kisner isn’t playing as well as in previous years, but he has the goods to surprise people this week.

Joaquim Niemann $7,900 (M25, 16%) – Statistically speaking, Niemann is having his best year of his young career. A world class ball striker, few in the field can compete with his irons. The one problem with Niemann is it seems one part of his game fails him. Charles Schwab (ARG), Travelers (Putter) and Workday (ARG). When it does come together it’s fantastic, RBC (T5). With the inconstant all around game, his ownership is rather high which gives me some pause. At his price though, the upside is tremendous.

Doc Redman $7,600 (M32, 7%) – Speaking of ball strikers, Redman is another elite player with the approach aspect of his game. Despite losing strokes with the wedge and putter the last three weeks, Redman has finished T21, T11 & T21. As we all know putting is the highest varying aspect of one’s game. If his can get his putter hot Redman could find himself in the top 5 this week at The Memorial.

Players priced between $7,400 and $7,000

Brian Harman $7,100 (M21, 1%) – Oh Harman, we meet again. After the RBC I started playing Harman. As I’m sure you know he then proceeded to miss the cut the two following weeks. His game in theory should setup perfect for The Memorial. I’ve said that though for previous weeks and it didn’t matter. He’s coming in with zero traction from the industry, hence the projected ownership. Third time is a charm, right?

Kevin Na $7,200 (M24, 6%) – Na withdrew last tournament with a back injury, a tournament he was somewhat popular. Na has always lost strokes off the tee and with the extra long rough this week it could be an issue. With that said all other facets of his game match up wonderfully at The Memorial. Won’t need much to match the field and an injury risk is always in play, but I’ll take a shot on Mr Na this week.

Lucas Glover $7,100 (M40, 11%) – Another strong iron player, Glover has been getting some love and it makes sense. Since the restart Glover has averaged over a stroke per round in approach and has finished T23, T21, T20 & T21. He also has not missed the cut since 2015 at The Memorial. While his ownership/price ratio goes against my philosophy I’m going go heavy on Glover this week and double the field in ownership.

Brendan Steele $7,100 (M60, 3%) – Steele had a great tournament last week despite the T52 finish. He gained almost a stroke and a half over the field in approach. His problem was the putter, it got cold quick. Losing almost 2 strokes a round is problematic. Now granted Steele has never been a world class putter but his 2020 average is around zero. If the two stroke departure from his putter can regain his 2020 form I could imagine Steele landing inside the top 20.

Punt plays $6,900 and lower

*****Won’t have more than 10% of any of these guy in my 150 max*****

Nick Taylor $6,900 (M20, 2%)
Troy Merritt $6,600 (M37, 3%)
Talor Gooch $6,500 (M39, 4%)
Matthias Schwab $6,400 (M51, 2%)
Max Homa $$6,800 (M52, 4%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,800 (M79, 1%)
Tyler Duncan $6,300 (M88, 2%)

Cash / SE / 3 Max – Core plays

******None of my plays in this section will ever be at 10K and above or 6K and lower.******

Patrick Cantlay $9,800 (M3, 23%)
Webb Simpson $9,600 (M4, 15%)
Daniel Berger $8,700 (M9, 17%)
Abraham Ancer $8,500 (M8, 21%)
Paul Casey $7,900 (M19, 16%)
Kevin Streelman $7,600 (M16, 16%)
Ian Poulter $7,600 (M22, 11%)
Adam Hadwin $7,400 (M14, 9%)
Corey Conners $7,400 (M57, 7%)
Harris English $7,300 (M29, 8%)

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for The Memorial. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

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