Thursday Night Football

The fun continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re breaking it down to help you win big money in the first Week 4 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Melvin Gordon (DK $16,500, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Sam Darnold (DK $15,900, FD $14,000)

Contrarian #1: Noah Fant (DK $13,500, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Brett Rypien (DK $15,300, FD $12,000)

It’s going to be difficult for me to build anything tonight without Melvin Gordon atop my favorite showdown lineups, for reasons I should probably not have to explain. But I’m going to have some using both Gordon and Sam Darnold as flex plays with an inexpensive captain — hoping to get me 10-15 fantasy points — so we can squeeze in more upside-laden players. As a standalone NFL contest between two winless teams, it’s not a very fun game to handicap, and it may be an even worse game to watch – but DFS allows us to add some (possibly) lucrative excitement to the mix, doesn’t it?

Both teams are dealing with multiple injuries to their offensive and defensive units and second stringers (or third, in the case of Broncos QB Brett Rypien) have been thrust into prominent roles at the skill positions. One Jets WR has already been ruled out (Breshard Perriman, OUT) and Darnold may also be without Chris Hogan (ribs, knee) and Jamison Crowder (hamstring), both of which currently sport “questionable” tags. Crowder is expected to play, but that doesn’t really diminish my enthusiasm for Braxton Berrios, who has emerged as a viable target for the beleaguered Jets. We’ve also been hearing for a while how awesome Jets TE Chris Herndon is (still waiting on that big breakout game), so a prime time matchup could be an opportunity for him to shine.

The contrarian play, since the Broncos are expected to feature Gordon and attack one of the league’s worst run defenses, is using Rypien in his first NFL start at CPT. Jeff Driskel is not injured (just waiting in the wings if Rypien really struggles) and could be used in the offense as well, so this is a risky move best deployed in multi-entry tournaments. You can get insane leverage by doing it in single entry, but I wouldn’t risk more than a few bucks on that.

Rookie Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy has seen 24 targets from three different QBs through three games, hauling in 13-173-0, and while he’s probably Denver’s most explosive big-play threat, I prefer TE Noah Fant. The athletic former Hawkeye has been more efficient (14-184-2 on 21 targets) and should be easier to find on shorter routes while still bringing some big-play and red zone upside. Tim Patrick is an efficient target and seems to have more upside than KJ Hamler if you’re stacking with Broncos receivers.

On DK, rostering Fant at CPT allows you to fit both QBs and some key offensive cogs, and while the offenses are banged up, I’m still more interested in them than the defenses in this matchup. There’s some pick six leverage in using the Broncos DST, but Denver’s unit is without standouts Jurrell Casey, Von Miller, and A.J. Bouye; dynamic edge rusher and OLB Bradley Chubb (12.0 sacks in 2018) has been on a pitch count (and is without a sack) through the first three games of 2020.

Lastly, on the topic of the Jets “stable” of RBs, I have much more interest in Kalen Ballage or rookie RB La’Mical Perine (in a negative game script/passing barrage) than Frank Gore, who may have finally reached his breaking point as a viable NFL player. Much love to you, Frankie G, but it’s a sad reality that your impressive NFL career is finishing in New Jersey, on a team of mostly scrubs, in the middle of a pandemic. You’re still a large-field GPP play because of your heart — but I can’t get behind you in cash or single-entry.

Week 4 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to take a shot on a defense on DK. Darnold throws INTs and the Broncos QB is making his first NFL start.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your offensive selections, although the small spread doesn’t preclude using more underdogs tonight.

DON’T: Be afraid to get (a little) crazy with this one – from using hobbled players like Crowder or featuring an unproven QB like Rypien. We’ve seen QBs have monster games in their debuts against better defenses than this hideous Jets unit.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Melvin Gordon
2. Noah Fant
3. Sam Darnold
4. Braxton Berrios
5. Brett Rypien
6. Jamison Crowder (questionable, hamstring)
7. Jerry Jeudy
8. Chris Herndon
9. Broncos DST
10. Tim Patrick
11. Brandon McManus
12. Kalen Ballage
13. Sam Ficken
14. K.J. Hamler
15. La’Michal Perine
16. Jets DST
17. Frank Gore
18. Royce Freeman
19. Jeff Driskel (not starting)
20. DaeSean Hamilton