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With a specific type of golfer likely to be successful at Colonial Country Club, I'm excited to get into this week's Charles Schwab Challenge Picks!As the sun sets on another major, it is worth reflecting on a tricky PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Oak Hill provided a sterner test than even initial predictions envisioned. However, our winning score prediction was spot on albeit that there was a margin between the top 3 and the rest of the leaderboard. The difficulty of the course proved to be not just for golfers but, also, golf punters. This seems somewhat natural in an environment where missing by just one yard off the fairway can lead to a near unplayable lie. We finally saw some correction come Sunday, with my 5 match-up selections all getting the win. Also cashing are a top 5 finish on Kurt Kitayama at big odds and Alex Smalley for a Top 40. However, Jaeger broke our hearts sitting 10th Saturday before a dreadful final round.Colonial Country Club plays host this week, as at has sinc...

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Oak Hill Country Club is sure to provide a stern test for our PGA Championship Picks
The East Course at Oak Hill Country Club underwent a significant restoration project in 2020 to prepare for this event. See how this has influenced our PGA Championship Picks below!

Coming off the Wyndham Clark 75/1 win, the AT&T Byron Nelson ended more with a whimper than a roar for our picks last week. We had leaned heavily into the Enhanced Outright Win number on Scottie Scheffler at +450. This remained for some time despite the withdrawal of second favourite Jordan Spieth. A raft of other names followed including mid-range options Spaun, Hubbard, and Smalley amongst others. Scheffler was of course there all week as expected, although an even par 3rd round proved a huge hurdle to his chances in the final round. We also notably had Ryan Palmer as joint leader entering the final day. Selected at 150/1, the Texan found some hometown advantage to complement some promising statistics to make a great charge at the title. Let’s hope we can secure a few more winning hopes this week with our PGA Championship picks!


Course Analysis

Oak Hill Country Club, specifically the East Course, plays host this week. This venue has already played host to three PGA Championship, three US Opens, a Ryder Cup, and the US Amateur. This may imply that there is a myriad of data available for our PGA Championship picks. Those expectations should be somewhat tempered.

Significantly, the course underwent an extensive renovation at the hands of Andrew Green to restore Oak Hill closer to the original Donald Ross vision. Completed in 2020, this restoration should see quite a different course greet players this week. This was previously a test where narrow fairways littered by thousands of large tees saw a huge emphasis on driving accuracy. The removal of hundreds of trees opens up new lines of sight to players.

Explicitly, bunkering has been described as “aggressive”. These are not only strategically placed, but are almost links-like in nature. Mounds surrounding the edges and strong bunker faces will prove a true penalty if found. The rough is thick and it will make little difference whether you miss the fairway by 1 yard or 20 yards. All greens have been completely redone, extensively reshaped, and replaced with pure bentgrass. Holes 5, 6, and 15 are all significantly changed. This is a different golf course and should be treated as such.

There has been some great content produced by the Fried Egg and Golf Digest on these changes. Certainly, I highly recommend watching these to gain an understanding of the course.


Oak Hill Course Comps

Obviously, a newly redesigned golf course provides some challenges in finding related course form. Winged Foot (host of the 2020 US Open) and Bethpage Black (2019 PGA Championship and The Barclays 2016, 2012) provide the most obvious direct examples. Last year’s host Southern Hills should provide a decent correlation, in both approach metrics but also the likely wind we will see this weekend.

Quail Hollow should provide at least some noteworthy comparison, with comparative long approach metrics. Innisbrook Resort and the Copperhead Course holds a similar standing in that regard.

For bentgrass putting, last weeks tournament at TPC Craig Ranch holds the same grass type. Similarly, Wilmington Country Club and Augusta National can be used as a putting guide.

Key Statistics for our PGA Championship Picks

Although the restoration project does lend to an increased emphasis on driving distance compared to previous iterations hosted here, I don’t want to completely discount driving accuracy completely this week. There are many paths to the top of the mountain. However, I do believe the path to victory becomes somewhat narrower (pun intended) for those who lack distance off the tee. Markedly, the penal rough and surrounding mounds will see a distinct advantage for those who can regularly find the fairway.

I think we can also get a little more nuanced in how we treat driving distance this week. With potentially softer conditions due to winter and a wet Spring, runout may be less than at other majors. Also, there are some holes where a compulsory carry of 290 yards+ over hazards is required to gain a distinct advantage. Therefore, I prefer to use Carry Distance to a straight Driving Distance metric.

Following, we again expect a disproportionate number of approach shots to occur from over 200+ yards. 1/3 of approach shots will come from over that distance whilst 2/3 shots will occur over 150 yards. I have used both approach statistics from over 200+ yards as well as approach from rough 150+yards in our PGA Championship picks this week.

Finally, we simply expect this to provide a stern test of every golfers all round game. Accordingly, we expect a winning total in single figures from -5 to -9 is on the cards. Certainly, the list of likely potential winners is small. As such, we have provided reduced staking on many outright win bets to instead focus on place opportunities.

Weather for our PGA Championship Picks

Generally, based on current forecasts there appears to be little to no weather edge leading into the second major of the year.

Firstly, Thursday AM looks to be brutally cold, with highs between 35-50F. Winds, however, will be lower than later that afternoon. Certainly, this looks to mitigate some of the impact from lost driving distance in the colder temperatures.

Subsequently, Friday looks to be the windier of the two opening days. Winds are expected between 9-12mph prevailing with gusts reaching 25-30mph. Basically, this looks to be consistent majority of the day. However, it may develop that Friday AM actually provides the windier conditions of the day.

Finally, if an edge were to develop I suspect that this would move in the direction of being Thursday AM/Friday PM groups. Particularly, for the purposes of DFS I would suggest building lineups with 20% being Thursday AM/Friday PM, 15% Thursday PM/Friday AM, and the remaining 65% mixed.

Latest weather forecasts can be found here

PGA Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Cameron Young – Your PGA Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +3300 (MGM)
2.5pts Top 10 +320 (Fanduel)
or 2.5pts E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tony Finau: Pre-Tournament Future
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings, Fanduel, & MGM)

Rickie Fowler
2pts WIN +5500 (Various)
2pts Top 10 +450 (Various)
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Wyndham Clark: Pre-Tournament Future – Your PGA Championship Picks Best Value
2pts E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings & Fanduel)

Taylor Moore
0.5pts WIN +16000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1000 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 +450 (Bet365) or +400 (Draftkings)

Stephan Jaeger
0.5pts WIN +25000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1400 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 +475 (Bet365) or +550 (Draftkings)

Harris English
0.5pts WIN +18000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1600 (Fanduel)
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365/TAB) or +490 (Fanduel)
2pts Top 40 +275 (Bet365) or +250 (Fanduel)

Alex Smalley
0.25pts WIN +55000 (Fanduel)
0.25pts Top 10 +2300 (Fanduel)
or 0.25pts E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 +1000 (Bet365) or +850 Draftkings
2.5pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365/TAB) or +320 (Fanduel)

Golfer Profiles for our PGA Championship Picks

Cameron Young – Your PGA Championship Picks Favourite

I’m willing to take a stab that we were a little too early on Cameron Young at the Wells Fargo Championship and mark him as our PGA Championship picks favourite this week.

Certainly, Cam Young ticks many of the key statistics we are looking for this week. For carry distance, Young boasts an impressive 3rd on the PGA Tour averaging 305 yards. He is a gainer on approach in all buckets above 100 yards. This includes in the 150+ yards from rough category, where his clubhead speed will prove an asset if straying from the short-grass this week. He displayed an affinity for bentgrass at The Masters this year, gaining +1.23 strokes per round putting around Augusta National.

Cameron Young perhaps should have won the PGA Championship last year. He was the best positioned of candidates on the final 9 Sunday, although eventually succumbing to finish 3rd. He will be better for that experience. Additionally, Southern Hills should provide a reasonable correlation to what we see this week at Oak Hill.

2nd at the 150th Open Championship hosted at St Andrews and 7th this year at The Masters, Young is building a handy resume of major championship results. Don’t be surprised to find him adding to those claims in the near future.

Finally, this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cam Young. He grew up in upstate New York, as he mentioned in this excellent Sports Illustrated interview. Specifically, he mentioned his comfort on these grass types and how it compares to golf courses where he learned to play the game. It further aids his claims to not only take out a major, but his first PGA Tour title at the same time.

Tony Finau

Narrowly following up in our PGA Championship picks is Tony Finau, who we were able to snag at a juicy 33/1 where he can only be found at 23/1 at time of writing. For what it is worth, the 23/1 on offer would be at the bottom end of my positive EV and I would not look to take him any shorter than his current pricing.

Finau has been on a prolific winning streak notching 4 victories in his last 20 starts. I’ll acknowledge the calibre of those victories may be questioned. However, at the Mexico Open he beat Jon Rahm on a course where 63.1% of approach shots were from over 175 yards. At the Houston Open, he defeated Scheffler and Day. At the Rocket Mortgage, he beat Cantlay and Cam Young. Finally, the 3M Open he beat Sungjae Im. He has not finished worse than 31st since November 2022. Certainly, the depth of field at many of these events has been less than what we’ve become accustomed to at the new designated events. Conversely, he has also found a way to win more often, against some decent enough opponents.

Tony Finau in 2023 ranks 4th on approach over 200+ yards of those with 50+ shots recorded. He also ranks 9th for approach shots over 150 yards from the rough with 80+ attempts. Finau ranks 7th in this field for SG: APP and 6th for SG: T2G. His driving is both long and straight, which will be a key asset at this testing course.

Boasting an 8th at Winged Foot, multiple Masters Top 10s, and a 12th at Bethpage Black are all promising signs this could fit. It feels an inevitably that Finau will secure at least one major during his career. It may be this week.

Rickie Fowler

I’m typically not overly enamoured by Rickie Fowler. Even in his prime, he often finished towards the top of leaderboards without competing. It felt much like a Xander or Cantlay may do now; oodles of talent but somewhat lacking in the Wins column to show for it.

However, count me impressed by Fowler’s resurgence of late. Since January, he has placed in the top 20 for 8 of his last 9 starts. This has also included 5 designated events. Data Golf rank him as 20th, whilst his OWGR still sits at 49th. That is always an opportunity where we can see some swift correction, as we did with Wyndham Clark when he won for us at big odds.

Sitting 10th for SG: APP in this field over the last 6 months is no small feat. Although on paper he may not be the longest for pure driving distance, his carry distance is an impressive 26th this season on the PGA Tour at 293.50 yards. That is plenty enough distance to be workable this week. Combine that with the fact Fowler is a big gainer in SG: Putt on bentgrass greens and is 12th for SG: Total it provides a promising complete profile for a golfer. He is simply far too long at 75/1.

5 finishes of 12th or better at the Masters, 23rd last year at Southern Hills when in far worse form, and a 36th and 7th at Bethpage Black tick the complimentary courses boxes. Perhaps we see a return to the winner circle for Fowler, just as we did for Jason Day last week.

Wyndham Clark – Your PGA Championship Picks Best Value

Again, I feel fortunate we were able to pick up Wyndham Clark at big odds of 80/1 for this event when he can only be found at 66/1 at many books now. I still like him at that price here, especially where that includes 8 or more places. I’d not go as short as 60s.

It has been a stellar year for Wyndham Clark. Previously known simply as a bomber who could putt well, that all changed at the beginning of 2023. From January, Clark began finding his irons in a big way. The scale of improvement has been astounding. If looking at the last 2 years, Clark ranks a lowly 108th in this field for SG: APP. Over the last 6 months, he ranks 11th in this field. In 2022, the PGA Tour had Clark ranked as the 173rd golfer on SG: APP. This year, he ranks 20th.

The victory at Quail Hollow was dominant, winning by 4 strokes to Schauffele and 7 strokes ahead of everybody else in a designated event. That course should prove at least somewhat correlated to here, where strong driving and long irons are key. According to Data Golf, he is the 11th best player in the world where as his OWGR at 32nd. There may still be further correction coming.

The driving distance for Clark remains, where he ranks 6th this year in Carry Distance on the PGA Tour. And, finally, bentgrass may well be his best putting surface. His best putting performances in the past year came at the Fortinet Championship, Rocket Mortgage, and the RBC Canadian Open. All were on bentgrass.


As stated, given the stern test on offer I do believe the top of the board is likely where the winner of this event will come from. As such, you’ll notice a reduced stake for the win options and increased weighting on the Top Finishes markets for the below selections.

Taylor Moore

Another who I feel the market continues to disrespect is Taylor Moore. Moore secured his breakthrough win at the Valspar Championship. Copperhead Course has always provided a stern enough test. It took -10 for Moore to win this year and there have been multiple iterations where single digits has been sufficient. It also has a huge emphasis on long iron play, with 53% of approach shots this year over 175 yards.

Those long irons are really what draw me to Moore. This year, Moore ranks 2nd behind only Woodland for approach of those with 50+ recorded shots over 200+ yards. That is ahead of Rahm in 3rd, Finau in 4th, and Scheffler in 5th. Some truly elite company to be associated with. He is also 25th over the past 6 months for SG: OTT, gaining for both driving distance and accuracy.

Moore impressed in his major debut at the Masters, managing to make the cut and finishing 39th. It was a tournament where he played much better than the finishing position tells, with a final round +6 sending him flying down the leaderboard. This is easily excused in his first major appearance, especially in a heavily disrupted tournament where the 3rd round resumed on Sunday with the leaders only on the 7th hole. He remains a big gainer for putting in all his appearances featuring bentgrass greens.

11th at the RBC Heritage and 27th at the Wells Fargo came in designated events and marks a run of 11/12 events finishing 39th or better, highlighting this is no “flash in the pan”. I have lofty expectations for Taylor Moore’s career, as I do going into this week.

Stephan Jaeger

Jaeger was always a promising type. A stellar amateur career promised much when entering the realms of professional golf. He proceeded to yo-yo between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour, where he has now seemingly begun to find his feet.

I’ll start by saying that bentgrass is by far Jaeger’s preferred putting surface. We saw this just last week when charging through the field to finish 11th at TPC Craig Ranch. But, additionally, at Quail Hollow, the Rocket Mortgage, and Wilmington. Jaeger played in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot, where he far exceeded expectation when finishing 34th whilst still on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Another whose golf ranking is seemingly out of kilter, Data Golf rank him at 48th versus his OWGR standing of 117th. He has finished 44th or better in 7/8 starts since the Genesis Invitational. 5 of those have been finishes of 27th or better. His long irons are excellent. Particularly, approach shots when playing from the rough from 150+ yards. He sits in the top 80% for SG per shot, proximity, GIR, and Poor Shot Avoidance for this category.

Most notably, Jaeger has quietly gone about adding a lot of driving distance in 2023. He ranks 36th in Carry Distance this season where he sat 94th last year. He is 23rd for SG: T2G in this field over the past 6 months, with his finishes held back somewhat by his putting. However, as mentioned, he is a far better putter on bentgrass and I think we could be in for an eye-catching performance from Jaeger here.

Harris English

Once regarded as one of the rising stars of the game, 2021 saw Harris English playing in the Ryder Cup and winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Travelers Championship. His movement through the world of golf was halted following surgery to a hip injury in the 2021 season. We are beginning to see murmurs that English may soon be back towards his very best.

English impressed last outing when finishing 3rd at the designated event Wells Fargo Championship. He did so when sitting 2nd in the field behind only winner Wyndham Clark for SG: APP. As is often the case, gains in approach tend to be “stickier” whilst we expect spikes in putting performance to regress to a player’s mean much more quickly. 55.2% of approach shots were over 175 yards at Quail Hollow and 75.5% of approach shots were over 150 yards.

He is one of the biggest movers in SG: Putt when shifting to bentgrass greens. He can also boast a 4th place at the US Open at Winged Foot, which we expect to be well correlated to Oak Hill.

Alex Smalley

Finally, I round out my PGA Championship picks with a small and speculative play on Alex Smalley at huge odds of 500/1. Whereas this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cameron Young, this really is one for Alex Smalley who was born in Rochester, NY.

26 year old Alex Smalley jumped almost directly into the PGA Tour from a stellar amateur campaign. A rather weird transition due to COVID, he finished 48th, 4th, and 15th in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to earn a PGA Tour card near immediately. It was an eye-catching rookie season, where he made it all the way to the second stage of the FedEx Cup playoffs at the BMW Championship in Wilmington.

Smalley impressed when finishing 18th on last sighting at the elevated Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. He was subsequently backed by me last week, before promptly withdrawing when it became clear he would make the PGA Championship field.

At his best, Smalley is both long and straight off the tee. His approach game has also been rounding into decent form, beyond the promising big uptick last appearance. Particularly, his approach numbers from the rough and 150+ yards are impressive. Smalley has now gained over or been at the field average for approach in his last 5 events.

Again, a debut professional major appearance is a lot to ask of any player. However, he is undeniably a rising talent who represents a great value in both Top 20 and Top 40 markets.


Thank you reading our 2023 PGA Championship picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

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The Players Championship. The 5th Major. The PGA Tour's flagship event. Call it what you will, it is known by both the PGA professionals and fans alike that this tournament matters a little more than most. Perhaps due to the list of winners, perhaps due to the iconic TPC Sawgrass course, and perhaps due to the dramatic finishes we have come to know and love from this event. Those dramatic finishes and volatility that comes here help guide our Players picks this year.It what was another great week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where we scored a huge hit with winning ticket on Kurt Kitayama at +6000. We added Kitayama live in-play in the WinDaily Discord. His overall metrics were good. The telling factor was, having followed his game closely since 2018, that Kitayama has massive boom or bust potential. When he gets in contention, he doesn't shy away from competition and tends to stick around despite the names surrounding him. We saw this when 2nd to Rahm at the Mexico Open, 2nd to M...

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We are all aboard the Tom Kim train at the Arnold Palmer InvitationalThe PGA Tour returns to what almost feels like "regularly scheduled programming" with a third elevated event in just four tournaments. Of course, we should still appreciate that these fields are anything from the norm experienced in previous seasons. 44 of the worlds top 50 golfers will descend on the always tricky Bay Hill Club & Lodge. It is a venue comparable to a US Open setup and with the same caliber field to boot. An interesting backdrop as we dissect the selections for our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks.Despite being an "off" week for the stars of the Tour, the Honda Classic provided a highly entertaining tournament. In contrast, the fact that the LIV Golf opening tournament at Mayakoba barely made a blip on the radar is telling. LIV will be shocked their Saturday ratings only hit 0.2 (here), which was some 5 times lower than at the Honda Classic. The simple fact is viewers want not just stars, but a reason ...

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golf analysis, winning golf bets, how to win at golf betting
Get that winning feeling with WinDaily Sports

An insight into my golf analysis process and key indicators to identify success.

Golf betting can be tricky. The majority of fields have 140+ golfers to chose from, every week there is a different course to study, and it is perhaps the sport most exposed to the elements.

However, this also presents opportunity. With a large number of variables and potential players to select, bookmakers often have a tough time correctly setting golf markets. Likewise, daily fantasy golf providers often produce misprices.

In this article, I will provide a brief overview of my process. I provide some of the tools and key indicators I use to select my golf betting tips. Find out below why I am banned by multiple bookmakers.

2022 Golf Bets Tips Record

16 outright winners
DP World Tour +24% ROI
PGA Tour +26% ROI

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Get coaching directly from our experts, chat directly with our team members, and ask any questions you may have. We can help provide guidance and our expert golf betting tips can help you identify the best selections every week. We also are happy to teach you the skills required to make you a consistent, winning player. Particularly, you will find up to date weather forecasting in the last 24 hours prior to a tournament which can be key to your success (or failure) in any given week.

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Within the WinDaily wesbite, you can find all manner of weekly articles for both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

My articles provide in-depth golf analysis and golf betting picks for the tournament. I particularly see gaps in the market that provide an edge in DP World Tour tournaments, with weather forecasting, as well as player and course analysis. You can view my proven winning record on my Twitter page (@deepdivegolf).

We also have fantastic weekly DFS ownership projections from Steven Spolardi (@spolardi) which are simply the best in class. These articles are on the WinDaily website and are essential for gaining ownership leverage, especially in large GPP tournaments. Example here: https://windailysports.com/the-pga-championship-ownership-projections/

Key Golf Betting Terms

This article works in conjunction with our “Golf DFS 101: How To Win More At Golf DFS” article. If you have not read that article yet, you can find it here.

Before we get started on some of the processes I use, there are some key terms we need to know.

How are odds displayed for golf betting?

There are three main ways to display betting odds: decimal odds, fractional odds, and American odds.

In decimal odds, the amount is the total amount returned for every $1 bet. A $1 bet at odds of $10.00 will return $10.00. This is your original $1 stake plus $9 of profit.

In fractional odds, it is a ratio such as 14/1 (fourteen-to-one). They represent the profit won if the bet cashes. A $1 bet at those odds would return $15, being $14 of profit and the original $1 staked.

American odds vary whether a +/- sign is in front of the odds. Odds with a positive sign in front indicate the profit won on a $100 bet. +700 indicates that a bet of $100 will return $800, being the original $100 staked and $700 of profit.

If there is a negative sign in front of the number, this indicates the amount you would need to bet to win $100 of profit. Odds of -200 mean you would bet $200 to win $300 ($100 of profit plus the original stake). You will not often find these odds in golf pre-tournament other than in match-ups between two golfers.

Being based in New Zealand, I tend to use decimal odds when I provide my golf betting tips. I also denote my bets in units or points (pts). This means you can invest the amount that you feel comfortable spending.

What are the main types of golf bets I can make?

There are a few main markets that make up the majority of golf bets.

Outright Winner: Does what is says on the tin. You are betting the golfer to win the tournament.

Top Finish: Betting on a golfer to finish within specified number of places from the top of the leaderboard. Most bookmakers will release Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 markets for each tournament. Many will even offer Top 30 or Top 40 markets, which can be a good option for betting outsiders.

Be aware that most bookmakers will apply dead-heat rules to such bets. This means if you place a Top 10 bet and your golfer ties for 10th exactly with 4 other golfers, your odds will be divided by 4.

Match-Up Bets: These bets typically pit two golfers against each other. They can be placed across the entirety of the tournament or occasionally for a single 18 hole round.

Prop Bets: Of course, there are also a large variety of prop (short for proposition) bets to investigate. For example, will there be a hole-in-one at the tournament? It is best to avoid these, especially when you first start in golf betting. They can be fun, but also are more unlikely to be predictable nor profitable.

What are Each-Way Golf Bets?

Many bookmakers, especially outside of the USA, will offer each-way (E/W) bets for golf. This bet actually consists of two bets: the golfer to win the tournament and the golfer to place. The place terms are always displayed. The most common place terms currently are 5 places at 1/4 odds and 8 places at 1/5 odds. Note that dead-heat rules will also apply if your player ties for the exact number of places on offer.

These provide great value and present you with better place odds compared to a typical top finish market. Think of it as a reward from the bookmaker for also making a win bet alongside your place bet.

For example, you pick Rory McIlroy to win a tournament. You take him at $20.00 E/W with place terms of 5 places at 1/4 odds. If McIlroy wins the tournament, you would collect both the win bet and the place bet. However, say McIlroy finishes in 3rd place. You would then win the place portion of your bet. In this instance, $20.00 divided by 4 would return place odds of $5.00. However, pre-tournament his Top 5 finish odds may only have been $3.50. You gave yourself the opportunity to cash an outright win ticket, but also were rewarded with better place odds as a result.

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage. It indicates what the bookmakers believe to be the chance of a result occurring. You can calculate implied probability using the following formula:

(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability

There are also various websites that will perform this calculation for you.

For example, the odds for Jon Rahm are $20.00 (19/1 or +1900) to win a particular golf tournament. The bookmakers are saying they believe Rahm has a 5% chance to win the tournament.

What is Expected Value?

Every time you place a bet, your selection has an “expected value” or “EV”. In short, this indicates what you can expect the bet to win (or lose) if made over a long time frame at the same odds. A positive EV bet is a winning play. We expect it to return a positive amount over the long-run if made time and again. Conversely, a negative EV bet is one we expect to lose over time.

Tip 1: Look to bet value and think long-term

The biggest golf betting mistake I see is trying to pick the winner every week. This may seem slightly counter-intuitive at first. I mean, we want to pick winning golfers, right? The fact is, you can make a bad bet and win money. You can also make a good bet and lose money. Let me explain.

Pre-tournament, you decide that given your analysis Justin Thomas will play well this week. You place a outright win bet on him to win at odds of $40.00. This bet has an implied probability of 2.5% or one-in-forty times.

Negative EV

Say that the correct chance for Justin Thomas to win was 2% or one-in-fifty times. Whether Thomas wins or loses the tournament is actually irrelevant. This is a negative EV bet. The more times that you place the bet, then the more times you will lose than win over time. Even if Thomas does win the tournament, you still made a negative EV bet.

Positive EV

Let’s look at the opposite. Say that you know Thomas has been working with a new swing coach, he recently shot a low round at a similar style of course, plays well in the wind and you can see in the forecast strong winds are forecast. He is the wrong price with bookmakers and his fair odds are actually $33.00 or an implied probability of 3%.

Again, irrespective of the result, this is a bet that we want to make. It has a positive EV and, over the long-term, will win you money. Even if Thomas doesn’t win the tournament, you made a positive EV bet.

Short-priced favourites

You will rarely find that the top few golfers in the market present positive EV opportunities. The bookmakers know the majority of casual armchair golf punters will tend towards the top of the board. They will bet stars, names that they know, and golfers they want to cheer for. Bookmakers need to mitigate this risk and also boost their profits. Especially when odds are very short, you are unlikely to be getting any value.

My role is helping you to identify positive EV spots. I provide golf betting tips where the actual chance of a golfer winning is higher than the implied probability currently on offer. This is the only way to win in golf betting in the long-term.

Tip 2: Structure your golf betting carefully and precisely

People structure their golf bets in many different ways. You often find people betting a certain amount on every bet they make. Others will bet an amount in order to win a specific value. For example, they bet an amount required to win $1,000 at the odds on offer.

The optimal way to structure your bets should be based upon the difference between the implied probability and the actual probability of the event occurring. If the margin is wider between the two figures, then you should bet more. Your confidence interval will be higher. Essentially, based upon your analysis you are more confident of an edge to true odds existing and you want to push that advantage. If the edge is smaller, then you should bet less.

You will find with my golf betting tips through WinDaily Sports that I provide suggested staking. I will indicate what type of bet to make and how many units or points (pts) I recommend on each option. This makes it easy for you to construct your golf betting card ahead of the tournament.

How do I read the suggested staking provided for golf betting?

Let’s look at the below example of how my suggested staking is used:

Tom Kim
1pt E/W $40.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.50

In the above, my recommended bet is to stake 1 point E/W (1 unit to Win and 1 unit to Place). The place terms are indicated in brackets. The bookmaker has offered 8 places, with 1/5th the win odds if Tom Kim finishes in the Top 8. I also recommend 3 units on a Top 20 bet at $3.50.

Whatever you choose to make the value of your unit is up to you. 1 unit could be $5, $10, or $100. It really depends on what you are comfortable with and the size of your bank roll.

I would recommend always betting less than a maximum of 5% of your total allocated betting bank roll on any given tournament. You will encounter losing streaks and we do not advocate a “get rich quick” scheme. You will run into cash flow issues if you are betting too much of your bank roll on a given week. Instead, aim for a sustained systematic approach which leads to you growing your bankroll.

Most importantly, never bet more than you can lose. WinDaily Sports is a great community and we want you to be having fun. So, if it no longer is, then stop.

Tip 3: Top Finish Bets and Match-Ups are your bread and butter

I get it. Win bets are sexy. There is nothing better than placing your bets to then see one of your golfers come through to lift the trophy. It is even better when they are paying triple-figure odds!

The reality is that the wins you collect on your place and match-up bets are what will keep your wheels greased. Picking winning golfers is not easy. There are 140+ golfers who play in most tournaments and only one will ever win. And, even when you are regularly placing positive EV bets, it will sometimes be many weeks between win bets. Remember, you are looking at the long-term and following your process.

What you should be aiming for is to regularly be cashing place and match-up bets. One, this will mean that you are usually breaking even or making a small profit every week. When you do achieve a win bet, you will then reap the rewards and a larger profit. This keeps your cash flow positive and ensures you don’t lose your entire bankroll chasing Hail Mary win only bets.

Secondly, if you are regularly seeing your golfers place in the top end of the leaderboard that is a positive sign. There is still an element of luck in golf. The bounce of a ball, a few putts that just lip out, or a random gust of wind can be the difference between 1st and 20th. The more often your golfers are ending up in a position to potentially complete a victory, the better.

Tip 4: Meteorology and Agronomy


When looking at golf betting analysis, you need to continuously monitor the weather. It is baffling that in a sport so affected by the elements that so few golf bettors will even bother to check the weather prior to tournament start. Check the weather when initially analyzing the tournament. Check the weather in the last 24 hours before first tee-times. Basically, check the weather continuously before and throughout the tournament.

As mentioned in my DFS 101 article, you can get an edge depending when golfers tee off. Tee-times typically of two distinct groupings between a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon start time and vice-versa. This can create a weather edge for players teeing off at a particular time. If Friday afternoon is forecast for heavy winds and tricky scoring conditions, you may want to lean towards players starting their first two rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. You will often hear of a AM/PM stack or PM/AM stack providing a potential advantage in a given week.

Not every weather forecast is the same. The weather is inherently difficult to predict as is, but many websites rely on free and basic models which are less accurate.

At WinDaily, we use a combination of the best premium weather forecast models on the market to provide the most accurate weather predictions that we can. I’m here to make this easy for you and provide the best information available. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord, particularly in the 24 hours prior to tournament start, to give yourself an edge!


You also want to check the condition of the course. Many courses on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour have been on the circuit for many decades. This brings with it a wealth of data that you can delve into (but you still want to pay attention to any changes ahead of the tournament, such as longer rough or reshaping of certain holes).

However, there are always a few new courses to interpret each season. Three of the four golf majors – the PGA Championship, US Open, and The Open Championship (or British Open) – are often played on courses that have not been played on professionally for several years if ever. I always recommend for new courses to find video flyovers, photos, and watch interviews. You want to try to get a feel for the course and what type of player it may suit.

Grass Types

Grass type also makes a difference. This is particularly true on the greens, where different types of golf can see varying performance by golfers. The most common greens are Bermuda, Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and Paspalum.

Bermuda is found commonly in Florida and typically in warmer climates. It can be somewhat easier to read. Bentgrass is typically found in areas which have cooler summers and in coastal areas. Poa Annua has a reputation for getting bumpy in the afternoon and can be tricky to putt on. Paspalum is a very sturdy grass that is highly resistant to salt. It is generally only found in coastal and tropical courses. Being a hardy grass, it can grab the ball more than other surfaces and prove sticky.

You want to pay particular attention to prevailing wind, wind gusts, any rain forecast, and ground condition. A dry, firm course in windy conditions will play a lot more difficult to a soft course in calm conditions. This can influence both tee-time stacks, but also the type of golfer you want to look for.

Tip 5: Look for Live In-Play Golf Betting Opportunities

There remains great opportunities for live in-play golf betting. As mentioned, there are a huge number of factors that bookmakers need to take into account. Not only are there a huge number of players to account for, but bookmakers also need to know where they each are on the course. They are often too slow to react and adjust their odds. Often bookmakers identify the number of holes a golfer has left in the round and not account for whether those holes are potential birdie holes, for example.

Weather can play a factor for in-play bet opportunities. With tournaments typically running over four rounds, the weather can change quickly from a Thursday to Sunday. For example, we spotted a potential weather edge develop recently at the Italian Open. Saturday afternoon was suddenly forecast for very high winds. This meant golfers further back on the leaderboard and teeing off earlier Saturday morning were going to enjoy easier scoring conditions. We tipped Robert MacIntyre live in-play, who managed to take advantage of the conditions and went on to win the tournament at odds of 125/1.

Tip 6: Identify Key Improvements in Stoke Gained Trends

If you’re new to Strokes Gained and have not read my Golf DFS 101 article, head over for a basic run-down on Strokes Gained here.

Per that article, ball-striking metrics tend to be “stickier”. If a golfer has made recent improvement in their approach play, this is more likely to be retained to subsequent tournaments. This is one of the key trends I always look for in players that appear to be a good course fit. I also like to identify whether the increase in SG: APP has been linked with recent improvement in driving accuracy. These two metrics combined give an indication that the golfer’s swing is in good shape and they are striking the ball well.

If a player has made recent improvement in SG: APP, driving accuracy, and if they have previous positive course form, that is a situation I want to pay close attention to. Do be aware to check how recent those performances were, as you will want to give less weighting to tournaments which were a month or longer ago.

Putting statistics are not that important (usually) for golf betting

SG: PUTT, followed by SG: ATG, is the most volatile metric. So much of short-game comes down to touch, feel, and confidence. Putts can be off by a mere centimeter and miss, or a golfer can get hot and suddenly make every putt they see.

Yes, there are better putters than others. But, as a rule, a recent hot putting performance does not necessarily mean they will putt well the next tournament. I prefer to see a longer stretch of improved putting before I start giving credence to the fact that the golfer has actually made some permanent gains with the flat-stick.

Regression to the mean

One of the biggest mistakes I see bettors making is not comparing recent improvements to a golfer’s longer term baseline. If Viktor Hovland is hitting the ball well on approach, that is almost a given as he is one of the best iron player’s in the game. We expect him to hit the ball well on approach. However, if Hovland starts hitting more fairways with his driver or making improvements in his SG: ATG, then I am beginning to get interested.

Likewise, if a golfer has had a great week putting, we would expect the golfer to experience regression towards their mean. As putting is more volatile, we typically also experience this regression more quickly. Basically, we would expect the golfer’s form to return towards their average baseline.


There are a huge number of factors that goes into successful golf analysis. The majority can’t, or simply won’t, put in the time required to be able to identify positive EV golf betting opportunities. It always pays to remember that it is the bookmakers job to analyze golf tournaments better than you to set fair pricing. At WinDaily, we are here to help and give you that winning edge!

If you’ve made it this far through the article, are you curious about giving WinDaily a go? Join now with a no obligation 1-month free trial so you can test out the website and services available. If you decide to keep the product, it is the best value on the market at just $5.99 for access to ALL sports.

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The final major of the season is upon us and it will be at a course steeped in tradition at St. Andrews. The Open hasn’t been played here since 2015 so there isn’t much by way of recent course history, but we will have plenty to offer all week from the team to make sure you’re zeroed in on the right players. That includes our PGA Draftcast Tuesday night for opinions on all the golfers and @TeeOffSports famous course breakdown. As for me, I’ll be zeroed in on APP and PUTT with a particular emphasis on lag putting and wedge game. Be sure to be in our Discord leading up to the event for chats with all the experts and for all weather information. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks:

Jordan Spieth (10000) – Really hasn’t slowed down since his win at the RBC Heritage in March. Has great Open Championship experience and is coming off a T10 finish last week at the Scottish, but was in position to win on Sunday. Has the skill set and intelligence to navigate this course to a win.

Cameron Smith (9500) – Not a guy who typically sits atop models, but always manages to get the ball in the hole better than most. He put together a nice weekend at The Scottish to finish T10 although a lot of that was PUTT reliant. His periodic wayward OTT game shouldn’t penalize him too much, and even if it does, he makes up for it with APP and short game (which includes elite wedge game and lag putting along with Jordan Spieth).

Patrick Cantlay (9400) – Was hard to determine if the Sunday meltdown at The Travelers would seep into the next few tournaments, but it looks like its a distant memory for the robotic Patrick Cantlay. He finished 4th at the Scottish Open and gained across all metrics, with a particularly splendid APP and short game play (along with being a great lag putter). That’s the mix I want to see this week at The Open Championship.

Shane Lowry (9300) – The APP play and PUTT haven’t been quite as elite as we’re accustomed to with Lowry, but this feels like a good setup for him to bounce back across those metrics that he’s typically elite in. I like him potentially getting overlooked for once.

Louis Oosthuizen (8800) – Nothing to show for on the PGA Tour this year, but the form appears to be right as he has finished inside the Top 10 in his two LIV Tour events and in the BMW International Open. Certainly has the game to succeed here just like he did in 2015 and 2010.

Tony Finau (8400) – For some reason it always feels risky to trot out Finau, but the metrics tell a different story. He has been elite on APP and ARG and the PUTT seems to have turned a corner from a bad stretch earlier in the year. OTT isn’t bad either and all of this spells pretty great value for Tony. Likely a chalky option at this price.

Joaquin Niemann (8000) – Short game can be a pretty big problem for Niemann, but I’m willing to take a chance on him because I think the upside is elite. Outside of a terrible tournament at The Travelers, he’s been managing solid finishing positions all season.

Max Homa (7900) – Max gets it done across every metric and made a charge toward the lead Sunday afternoon at the Scottish. A great price but likely one of the chalkier plays on the slate as the price tag is at least 600 short.

Seamus Power (7400) – He’s been excellent with the BS over his last four tournaments and has shown the ability to pop with the short game. Very good value at this price.

Patrick Reed (7300) – He’s made 8 of 9 PGA Tour cuts dating back to The Players. The finishing positions haven’t been great and the metrics don’t tell a great story either, but I think Reed’s got the game to compete at The Open.

Talor Gooch (7300) – Two Top 10s in his two LIV events juxtaposed with an MC at The U.S. Open. But Gooch has been pretty good all year, and that includes a 20th at The PGA Championship and a 14th at The Masters. Decent contrarian play here.

Ryan Fox (7100) – Last week’s 8500 becomes this week’s 7100 and it now feels like you’re getting Fox at a bargain price. He fought hard to make the cut last week and continues to make cuts. Plenty of upside here at this price.

Sahith Theegala (7100) – He’s really starting to put the entire game together as the BS and the short game have been really good in 3 of his last 4 tournaments. This is an up and coming star that doesn’t appear to be intimidated by the moment. I also like Woodland, Tringale and Wise in this range.

Chris Kirk (6800) – Kirk should be in the 7k range given his recent form. He’s been solid on APP and he can certainly get hot with the short game. He also happens to rate out very well with the wedges and lag putting.

Joohyung Kim (6500) – He’s a got a win and six Top 5 finishes on the Asian Tour and it appears that prowess has translated nicely onto the PGA Tour with a Top 20 at The Byron Nelson, 23rd at The U.S. Open and 3rd at The Scottish Open.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 55-22.

Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

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The US Open: Initial Picks


We’re already in the midst of another major as a full field descends upon Brookline Massachusetts for the U.S. Open. This major has an additional, if not ominous twist, as many LIV Tour players will be teeing it up among their ‘former’ PGA Tour colleagues. This will be a very tough test with a necessity to be good in all facets, but for me, I’m putting an extra emphasis on OTT (with an emphasis on accuracy) and ARG. We will get to the full model breakdown from @TeeOffSports on the PGA Draftcast on Tuesday night at 8:00, which will also feature special guest Geoff Fienberg! Make sure you tune in for all the DFS and outright plays. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (10800) – Likely to be unpopular due to his perceived lack of ARG game and the fact that you can pay up or down for more attractive options. Feels like a good time for Rahm to pounce. As for ARG he’s historically been great in that department and it’s picked up over the last couple months for him. I’ll note that I don’t have an issue rostering Rory or Scottie up here. I don’t think either will be prohibitively popular.

Xander Schauffele (9600) – He’s in great form, keeps it in the fairway and has been great ARG and on APP. He’s also not intimidated by US Open setups as indicated by his 7th place or better finishes over the last 5 US Opens. Xander is great in cash games but may be pivot material if the ownership gets too high.

Hideki Matsuyama (9100) – Revenge narrative in play after the odd DQ at The Memorial. Deki rates out well in almost all relevant categories and may see some lower ownership as he is Lowry and Zalatoris adjacent.

Shane Lowry (9000) – Certainly a great value but be cautious of his pedestrian US Open track record (granted, this is a different course but it’s still noteworthy). Lowry has been playing at an elite level all year and I don’t suspect that will change at The US Open, but if ownership is high I’ll pivot up to Deki or DJ or down to some of the great value in the 8k range.

Cameron Young (8800) – It’s really difficult to make a compelling argument against some of these young guns. Fact is, Young is great OTT, great ARG and good on APP. If he’s popular (and he likely will be) it’s a pretty easy pivot, but it’s worth noting him in case ownership is flat between the 9k and mid 8k range where there are a lot of popular options.

Billy Horschel (8600) – The 8k range is fruitful, but as usual, Billy probably will be on the outside looking in as far as popularity. His APP play isn’t pristine, but he’s been great ARG and he will keep in the fairway OTT. A nice pivot off some definite chalk in this area.

Daniel Berger (8400) – He was my favorite guy at The Memorial and he paid it off with a T5. He checks every box and has recently shown he can spike with the PUTT. He’s Top 20 ARG and Top 10 in fairways gained and APP. He also likely will have significantly less ownership than Matt Fitzpatrick (I think Fitz is fine for cash).

Mito Pereira (7800) – Another young gun that doesn’t seem to be phased by the moment. Over the last 36 rounds he’s 7th OTT, 10th APP, 31st ARG and 9th Fairways Gained. Nice recipe for outplaying his price tag. Another guy that will be popular so make sure you choose your chalk wisely and don’t be afraid to pivot in GPPs.

Sungjae Im (7600) – Another cash game lock who I may also pepper into some GPPs. He’s going to be very popular. He’s in good form and has the OTT, accuracy and ARG game to compete on Sunday.

Louis Oosthuizen (7600) – It will be interesting to see how much ownership Louis gets considering he hasn’t played much and he’s now LIV committed. If ownership is down I’m happy to pivot onto him (and perhaps off Sungjae in GPPs). He’ll keep in the fairway and the short game is elite.

Webb Simpson (7400) – Webb has been starting to hit the ball well again which is pretty good evidence he’s shaken off all his injuries and rust. His best finish this calendar year is the recent 20th at the PGA Championship and at 7400 I’d be just fine with that result.

Davis Riley (7300) – Another popular option better suited for cash games. It’s impossible to ignore what this guy has done over his last six tournaments (4th, 5th, 9th, 13th, 4th, 13th). The best part is he’s been doing it the ‘right way’ as he’s picking up plenty of strokes with the BS and the short game. I’d consider Sergio Garcia or Justin Rose in this range as a GPP pivot.

Si Woo Kim (7000) – His big issue is the PUTT but that’s not a big point of emphasis for me at Brookline. Si Woo will hit fairways and can navigate ARG. If he gets hot on APP he can be a factor at The US Open.

Brian Harman (7000) – I’m not a Harman guy, but at this price he’s worth considering. He’s excellent ARG and will keep in the fairway. I’ll take my chances with his lack of distance if I need to dip into this range.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 54-22.

Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

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The Memorial: Initial Picks


The PGA Tour travels to Dublin Ohio to play The Memorial Tournament at Jack’s Track. This week we are looking for the all-around game with a particular emphasis on keeping it in the fairway, strong iron game and the ability to maneuver deftly ARG. When looking at course history keep in mind this course was renovated recently and we only have one year of data (2021) on the new track. More on the renovations during the famous course breakdown with Spencer on Tuesday night’s PGA Draftcast. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks.

Collin Morikawa (10400) – I’ve been off Collin due to the issues with the PUTT but this may be a track where he can find his PUTT stroke again. Last year he gained over 5 strokes with the PUTT while also gaining over 12 strokes T2G. If he’s popular I will pivot but if the ownership is reasonable, I’m happy to take the leap of faith. I also like Rahm and Rory up top, but will only consider them if ownership doesn’t get out of hand.

Xander Schauffele (10200) – I’m not the biggest Xander fan, but he’s undoubtedly a metrics monster and he’s coming in with great form and has three Top 15s in a row at The Memorial including an 11th in 2021. If you can’t play Xander here, you’re probably just not going to play Xander. He won’t be in my main build but I’ll have him in some lineups for sure.

Jordan Spieth (9700) – He needs to keep it in the fairway and if he does he’s just as likely to win as any of the guys priced above him. He’s gained ARG in 8 tournaments in a row and has been cruising with the ball striking.  May be lower ownership than you think as people tended to play a lot of him over the last two tournaments and may be ready to pivot this week.

Shane Lowry (9000) – Lowry has been keeping it in the fairway and gains across all metrics.  T6 here last year and truly has the complete form. He could easily be priced at 9500. I like Zalatoris as a pivot in this range if ownership is high on guys like Lowry or Spieth.

Sungjae Im (8900) – He was pristine T2G last week, but lost a ton with the PUTT. Grades out just fine on this track in spite of very poor history. My guess is the poor course history and the lack of consistent recent history keeps his ownership down, and if that is the case, I’m happy to dive in. If he’s high owned, I’m fine with going to someone else in this range as it is rich with talent.

Cameron Young (8800) – He’s 7th in my model and carries with that metrics of 1st T2G and 1st in Par 4 450-500 yards over the last 24 rounds. Generally keeps it in the fairway. No experience here which I don’t love, but I still see him as a value with great upside.

Daniel Berger (8500) – Berger barely made the cut last week, but the ball striking was on point and he was great ARG. His PUTT let him down but he actually gained 2 of the 4 days. The ball striking is picking up and I’m hopeful that most people pivot to others in this range.

Mito Pereira (8000) – Much like Young, he is lacking in experience, but makes up for it with spectacular ball striking which includes finding fairways. He’s also been above average ARG and can spike with the PUTT. I think Max Homa is also a fine play in this range.

Patrick Reed (7900) – Reed has been his old self over the last couple of tournaments. He has great course history including a 5th at The Memorial last year. Gained across all metrics last week including great performances on APP and ARG.

Aaron Wise (7500) – He had a good showing last year which included gaining in all metrics and almost 7 T2G and 2.5 with the PUTT en route to a T9 finish. He comes in with good form as well and will be a value if the PUTT is decent. I also like Chris Kirk in this range who is likely to be popular and Cameron Tringale as an ownership pivot.

Jhonnatan Vegas (6700) – A high risk play as he hasn’t been hitting fairways and historically has issues ARG, but he has gained in 3 out of 4 tournaments ARG. If he is back to his old ball striking self and can maintain the ARG improvement he will be a great value.

Brendan Steele (6600) – Indeed a likely steal at this price given his impressive course history (37th, 13th, 41st and 57th in his last four at The Memorial) and he’s coming in with great form as evidenced by his Top 10 at The PGA Championship. The short game can be tricky for Brendan but he has the ability to gain there and the BS has been very good since March.

Lucas Glover (6500) – He lost 6 strokes with the PUTT last week which should surprise no one. There are times where he’s only a small loser PUTT and his T2G overall is pretty great. I’m willing to gamble on some poor PUTT this week. Glover has made 5 cuts in a row at The Memorial.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 54-22.

Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

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We have arrived in Tulsa Oklahoma for the year's second major, The PGA Championship. Like most majors, this will be a test of the complete game and will be very challenging for even the best in the world. Tuesday's PGA Draftcast will feature the now famous course breakdown from Spencer Aguiar so please make sure you tune in (and we'll also be bringing on a special guest and new contributor to the Win Daily golf team!). Please also make sure you monitor the weather with us as it could be a key factor this week in terms of which "wave" to play. Now let's get to the Initial Picks at The PGA Championship.Scottie Scheffler (11400) - He pretty much grades out well outstanding in every metric and that includes ARG, which he will need at The PGA Championship. Add to that he's familiar with Southern Hills and really the only drawback is how he inhibits your roster construction. I'm fine with Scottie at the top and I'm also fine with skipping this range entirely and starting with the 9k gr...

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A star studded field for the Byron Nelson this week as the PGA pros get in a little Texas tune-up and prepare for next week's PGA Championship. This week I'm focused on APP and PUTT as the rough is not penal and the green complexes are large. Expect relatively good GIR percentages across the board, but it will really be about scoring stats and creating opportunities. More on the course breakdown on the PGA Draftcast Tuesday night at 8:00.Scottie Scheffler (10900) - Hard to doubt him at this point and he rates out very well SG Par 5, DK Points and BoB gained. APP and PUTT are important here and his recent form is elite in both areas. Add to that he gets to play in his home state. He's the highest priced for very good reason.Justin Thomas (10600) - He checks all the boxes. Great on APP, SG Par 5, BOB Gained and DK points. The PUTT can be up and down, but that goes for most players, even the elite ones. I like Scottie more than JT, but they are both great plays. I think Jordan Spie...

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