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With a specific type of golfer likely to be successful at Colonial Country Club, I'm excited to get into this week's Charles Schwab Challenge Picks!As the sun sets on another major, it is worth reflecting on a tricky PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Oak Hill provided a sterner test than even initial predictions envisioned. However, our winning score prediction was spot on albeit that there was a margin between the top 3 and the rest of the leaderboard. The difficulty of the course proved to be not just for golfers but, also, golf punters. This seems somewhat natural in an environment where missing by just one yard off the fairway can lead to a near unplayable lie. We finally saw some correction come Sunday, with my 5 match-up selections all getting the win. Also cashing are a top 5 finish on Kurt Kitayama at big odds and Alex Smalley for a Top 40. However, Jaeger broke our hearts sitting 10th Saturday before a dreadful final round.Colonial Country Club plays host this week, as at has sinc...

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The Players Championship. The 5th Major. The PGA Tour's flagship event. Call it what you will, it is known by both the PGA professionals and fans alike that this tournament matters a little more than most. Perhaps due to the list of winners, perhaps due to the iconic TPC Sawgrass course, and perhaps due to the dramatic finishes we have come to know and love from this event. Those dramatic finishes and volatility that comes here help guide our Players picks this year.It what was another great week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where we scored a huge hit with winning ticket on Kurt Kitayama at +6000. We added Kitayama live in-play in the WinDaily Discord. His overall metrics were good. The telling factor was, having followed his game closely since 2018, that Kitayama has massive boom or bust potential. When he gets in contention, he doesn't shy away from competition and tends to stick around despite the names surrounding him. We saw this when 2nd to Rahm at the Mexico Open, 2nd to M...

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We are all aboard the Tom Kim train at the Arnold Palmer InvitationalThe PGA Tour returns to what almost feels like "regularly scheduled programming" with a third elevated event in just four tournaments. Of course, we should still appreciate that these fields are anything from the norm experienced in previous seasons. 44 of the worlds top 50 golfers will descend on the always tricky Bay Hill Club & Lodge. It is a venue comparable to a US Open setup and with the same caliber field to boot. An interesting backdrop as we dissect the selections for our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks.Despite being an "off" week for the stars of the Tour, the Honda Classic provided a highly entertaining tournament. In contrast, the fact that the LIV Golf opening tournament at Mayakoba barely made a blip on the radar is telling. LIV will be shocked their Saturday ratings only hit 0.2 (here), which was some 5 times lower than at the Honda Classic. The simple fact is viewers want not just stars, but a reason ...

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It’s week five of the PGA tour! Our crew has you covered for DFS Golf at the magnificent confines of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am by podcast, live video, and article.

At Win Daily Sports, we have a team of experts who will be producing all sorts of golf throughout the season. The goal is to have you covered for your Tournaments on every conceivable level.

Bettor Golf Podcast
bettor golf podcast

Bettor Golf Podcast – Pebble Beach

Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar help cover this week’s slate from every angle. Be sure to follow their weekly podcast all season!

PGA DraftCast

The OGs of PGA DFS Joel, Dave, Spencer, and Sia cover the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in their weekly DraftCast video. The DraftCast is fun, informative, and sure to give you a couple of extra things to think about for every slate that you might miss at first look.

PGA Ownership Report

In this weekly article from one of our pros, Steven Polardi, he helps us analyze/predict DraftKings ownership at Pebble Beach. This should be out by sometime tomorrow!

DFS Golf Tutorial

Are you interested in golf but not familiar with DFS Golf? Fear no more, we have you covered in the breakdown below.

Golf DFS 101 – Top 5 Tips & Advice – Win Daily Sports

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golf analysis, winning golf bets, how to win at golf betting
Get that winning feeling with WinDaily Sports

An insight into my golf analysis process and key indicators to identify success.

Golf betting can be tricky. The majority of fields have 140+ golfers to chose from, every week there is a different course to study, and it is perhaps the sport most exposed to the elements.

However, this also presents opportunity. With a large number of variables and potential players to select, bookmakers often have a tough time correctly setting golf markets. Likewise, daily fantasy golf providers often produce misprices.

In this article, I will provide a brief overview of my process. I provide some of the tools and key indicators I use to select my golf betting tips. Find out below why I am banned by multiple bookmakers.

2022 Golf Bets Tips Record

16 outright winners
DP World Tour +24% ROI
PGA Tour +26% ROI

The Essentials: Get the WinDaily Sports Edge

To make it easy, we have a fantastic team at WinDaily Sports who are here to do all that heavy lifting for you. With myself (@deepdivegolf), Sia (@sianejad), Joel (@draftmasterflex), and Spence (@teeoffsports) you have some of the best experts in the game to guide and coach you in your golf betting.

WinDaily Sports YouTube Channel & PGA Draftcast


Make sure you SUBSCRIBE and have the NOTIFICATION BELL turned on for our YouTube channel! We run our popular PGA Draftcast show for every tournament at 9pm EST Tuesdays prior to the tournament.

This is the only show where the audience draft a team live to go against the experts! It is essential viewing to hear our thoughts and favourite plays, as well as the iconic first-round leader picks and Spencer’s famous super in-depth course breakdowns.

WinDaily Sports Discord Channel


Get coaching directly from our experts, chat directly with our team members, and ask any questions you may have. We can help provide guidance and our expert golf betting tips can help you identify the best selections every week. We also are happy to teach you the skills required to make you a consistent, winning player. Particularly, you will find up to date weather forecasting in the last 24 hours prior to a tournament which can be key to your success (or failure) in any given week.

WinDaily Golf Analysis Website Articles


Within the WinDaily wesbite, you can find all manner of weekly articles for both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

My articles provide in-depth golf analysis and golf betting picks for the tournament. I particularly see gaps in the market that provide an edge in DP World Tour tournaments, with weather forecasting, as well as player and course analysis. You can view my proven winning record on my Twitter page (@deepdivegolf).

We also have fantastic weekly DFS ownership projections from Steven Spolardi (@spolardi) which are simply the best in class. These articles are on the WinDaily website and are essential for gaining ownership leverage, especially in large GPP tournaments. Example here: https://windailysports.com/the-pga-championship-ownership-projections/

Key Golf Betting Terms

This article works in conjunction with our “Golf DFS 101: How To Win More At Golf DFS” article. If you have not read that article yet, you can find it here.

Before we get started on some of the processes I use, there are some key terms we need to know.

How are odds displayed for golf betting?

There are three main ways to display betting odds: decimal odds, fractional odds, and American odds.

In decimal odds, the amount is the total amount returned for every $1 bet. A $1 bet at odds of $10.00 will return $10.00. This is your original $1 stake plus $9 of profit.

In fractional odds, it is a ratio such as 14/1 (fourteen-to-one). They represent the profit won if the bet cashes. A $1 bet at those odds would return $15, being $14 of profit and the original $1 staked.

American odds vary whether a +/- sign is in front of the odds. Odds with a positive sign in front indicate the profit won on a $100 bet. +700 indicates that a bet of $100 will return $800, being the original $100 staked and $700 of profit.

If there is a negative sign in front of the number, this indicates the amount you would need to bet to win $100 of profit. Odds of -200 mean you would bet $200 to win $300 ($100 of profit plus the original stake). You will not often find these odds in golf pre-tournament other than in match-ups between two golfers.

Being based in New Zealand, I tend to use decimal odds when I provide my golf betting tips. I also denote my bets in units or points (pts). This means you can invest the amount that you feel comfortable spending.

What are the main types of golf bets I can make?

There are a few main markets that make up the majority of golf bets.

Outright Winner: Does what is says on the tin. You are betting the golfer to win the tournament.

Top Finish: Betting on a golfer to finish within specified number of places from the top of the leaderboard. Most bookmakers will release Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 markets for each tournament. Many will even offer Top 30 or Top 40 markets, which can be a good option for betting outsiders.

Be aware that most bookmakers will apply dead-heat rules to such bets. This means if you place a Top 10 bet and your golfer ties for 10th exactly with 4 other golfers, your odds will be divided by 4.

Match-Up Bets: These bets typically pit two golfers against each other. They can be placed across the entirety of the tournament or occasionally for a single 18 hole round.

Prop Bets: Of course, there are also a large variety of prop (short for proposition) bets to investigate. For example, will there be a hole-in-one at the tournament? It is best to avoid these, especially when you first start in golf betting. They can be fun, but also are more unlikely to be predictable nor profitable.

What are Each-Way Golf Bets?

Many bookmakers, especially outside of the USA, will offer each-way (E/W) bets for golf. This bet actually consists of two bets: the golfer to win the tournament and the golfer to place. The place terms are always displayed. The most common place terms currently are 5 places at 1/4 odds and 8 places at 1/5 odds. Note that dead-heat rules will also apply if your player ties for the exact number of places on offer.

These provide great value and present you with better place odds compared to a typical top finish market. Think of it as a reward from the bookmaker for also making a win bet alongside your place bet.

For example, you pick Rory McIlroy to win a tournament. You take him at $20.00 E/W with place terms of 5 places at 1/4 odds. If McIlroy wins the tournament, you would collect both the win bet and the place bet. However, say McIlroy finishes in 3rd place. You would then win the place portion of your bet. In this instance, $20.00 divided by 4 would return place odds of $5.00. However, pre-tournament his Top 5 finish odds may only have been $3.50. You gave yourself the opportunity to cash an outright win ticket, but also were rewarded with better place odds as a result.

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage. It indicates what the bookmakers believe to be the chance of a result occurring. You can calculate implied probability using the following formula:

(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability

There are also various websites that will perform this calculation for you.

For example, the odds for Jon Rahm are $20.00 (19/1 or +1900) to win a particular golf tournament. The bookmakers are saying they believe Rahm has a 5% chance to win the tournament.

What is Expected Value?

Every time you place a bet, your selection has an “expected value” or “EV”. In short, this indicates what you can expect the bet to win (or lose) if made over a long time frame at the same odds. A positive EV bet is a winning play. We expect it to return a positive amount over the long-run if made time and again. Conversely, a negative EV bet is one we expect to lose over time.

Tip 1: Look to bet value and think long-term

The biggest golf betting mistake I see is trying to pick the winner every week. This may seem slightly counter-intuitive at first. I mean, we want to pick winning golfers, right? The fact is, you can make a bad bet and win money. You can also make a good bet and lose money. Let me explain.

Pre-tournament, you decide that given your analysis Justin Thomas will play well this week. You place a outright win bet on him to win at odds of $40.00. This bet has an implied probability of 2.5% or one-in-forty times.

Negative EV

Say that the correct chance for Justin Thomas to win was 2% or one-in-fifty times. Whether Thomas wins or loses the tournament is actually irrelevant. This is a negative EV bet. The more times that you place the bet, then the more times you will lose than win over time. Even if Thomas does win the tournament, you still made a negative EV bet.

Positive EV

Let’s look at the opposite. Say that you know Thomas has been working with a new swing coach, he recently shot a low round at a similar style of course, plays well in the wind and you can see in the forecast strong winds are forecast. He is the wrong price with bookmakers and his fair odds are actually $33.00 or an implied probability of 3%.

Again, irrespective of the result, this is a bet that we want to make. It has a positive EV and, over the long-term, will win you money. Even if Thomas doesn’t win the tournament, you made a positive EV bet.

Short-priced favourites

You will rarely find that the top few golfers in the market present positive EV opportunities. The bookmakers know the majority of casual armchair golf punters will tend towards the top of the board. They will bet stars, names that they know, and golfers they want to cheer for. Bookmakers need to mitigate this risk and also boost their profits. Especially when odds are very short, you are unlikely to be getting any value.

My role is helping you to identify positive EV spots. I provide golf betting tips where the actual chance of a golfer winning is higher than the implied probability currently on offer. This is the only way to win in golf betting in the long-term.

Tip 2: Structure your golf betting carefully and precisely

People structure their golf bets in many different ways. You often find people betting a certain amount on every bet they make. Others will bet an amount in order to win a specific value. For example, they bet an amount required to win $1,000 at the odds on offer.

The optimal way to structure your bets should be based upon the difference between the implied probability and the actual probability of the event occurring. If the margin is wider between the two figures, then you should bet more. Your confidence interval will be higher. Essentially, based upon your analysis you are more confident of an edge to true odds existing and you want to push that advantage. If the edge is smaller, then you should bet less.

You will find with my golf betting tips through WinDaily Sports that I provide suggested staking. I will indicate what type of bet to make and how many units or points (pts) I recommend on each option. This makes it easy for you to construct your golf betting card ahead of the tournament.

How do I read the suggested staking provided for golf betting?

Let’s look at the below example of how my suggested staking is used:

Tom Kim
1pt E/W $40.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.50

In the above, my recommended bet is to stake 1 point E/W (1 unit to Win and 1 unit to Place). The place terms are indicated in brackets. The bookmaker has offered 8 places, with 1/5th the win odds if Tom Kim finishes in the Top 8. I also recommend 3 units on a Top 20 bet at $3.50.

Whatever you choose to make the value of your unit is up to you. 1 unit could be $5, $10, or $100. It really depends on what you are comfortable with and the size of your bank roll.

I would recommend always betting less than a maximum of 5% of your total allocated betting bank roll on any given tournament. You will encounter losing streaks and we do not advocate a “get rich quick” scheme. You will run into cash flow issues if you are betting too much of your bank roll on a given week. Instead, aim for a sustained systematic approach which leads to you growing your bankroll.

Most importantly, never bet more than you can lose. WinDaily Sports is a great community and we want you to be having fun. So, if it no longer is, then stop.

Tip 3: Top Finish Bets and Match-Ups are your bread and butter

I get it. Win bets are sexy. There is nothing better than placing your bets to then see one of your golfers come through to lift the trophy. It is even better when they are paying triple-figure odds!

The reality is that the wins you collect on your place and match-up bets are what will keep your wheels greased. Picking winning golfers is not easy. There are 140+ golfers who play in most tournaments and only one will ever win. And, even when you are regularly placing positive EV bets, it will sometimes be many weeks between win bets. Remember, you are looking at the long-term and following your process.

What you should be aiming for is to regularly be cashing place and match-up bets. One, this will mean that you are usually breaking even or making a small profit every week. When you do achieve a win bet, you will then reap the rewards and a larger profit. This keeps your cash flow positive and ensures you don’t lose your entire bankroll chasing Hail Mary win only bets.

Secondly, if you are regularly seeing your golfers place in the top end of the leaderboard that is a positive sign. There is still an element of luck in golf. The bounce of a ball, a few putts that just lip out, or a random gust of wind can be the difference between 1st and 20th. The more often your golfers are ending up in a position to potentially complete a victory, the better.

Tip 4: Meteorology and Agronomy


When looking at golf betting analysis, you need to continuously monitor the weather. It is baffling that in a sport so affected by the elements that so few golf bettors will even bother to check the weather prior to tournament start. Check the weather when initially analyzing the tournament. Check the weather in the last 24 hours before first tee-times. Basically, check the weather continuously before and throughout the tournament.

As mentioned in my DFS 101 article, you can get an edge depending when golfers tee off. Tee-times typically of two distinct groupings between a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon start time and vice-versa. This can create a weather edge for players teeing off at a particular time. If Friday afternoon is forecast for heavy winds and tricky scoring conditions, you may want to lean towards players starting their first two rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. You will often hear of a AM/PM stack or PM/AM stack providing a potential advantage in a given week.

Not every weather forecast is the same. The weather is inherently difficult to predict as is, but many websites rely on free and basic models which are less accurate.

At WinDaily, we use a combination of the best premium weather forecast models on the market to provide the most accurate weather predictions that we can. I’m here to make this easy for you and provide the best information available. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord, particularly in the 24 hours prior to tournament start, to give yourself an edge!


You also want to check the condition of the course. Many courses on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour have been on the circuit for many decades. This brings with it a wealth of data that you can delve into (but you still want to pay attention to any changes ahead of the tournament, such as longer rough or reshaping of certain holes).

However, there are always a few new courses to interpret each season. Three of the four golf majors – the PGA Championship, US Open, and The Open Championship (or British Open) – are often played on courses that have not been played on professionally for several years if ever. I always recommend for new courses to find video flyovers, photos, and watch interviews. You want to try to get a feel for the course and what type of player it may suit.

Grass Types

Grass type also makes a difference. This is particularly true on the greens, where different types of golf can see varying performance by golfers. The most common greens are Bermuda, Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and Paspalum.

Bermuda is found commonly in Florida and typically in warmer climates. It can be somewhat easier to read. Bentgrass is typically found in areas which have cooler summers and in coastal areas. Poa Annua has a reputation for getting bumpy in the afternoon and can be tricky to putt on. Paspalum is a very sturdy grass that is highly resistant to salt. It is generally only found in coastal and tropical courses. Being a hardy grass, it can grab the ball more than other surfaces and prove sticky.

You want to pay particular attention to prevailing wind, wind gusts, any rain forecast, and ground condition. A dry, firm course in windy conditions will play a lot more difficult to a soft course in calm conditions. This can influence both tee-time stacks, but also the type of golfer you want to look for.

Tip 5: Look for Live In-Play Golf Betting Opportunities

There remains great opportunities for live in-play golf betting. As mentioned, there are a huge number of factors that bookmakers need to take into account. Not only are there a huge number of players to account for, but bookmakers also need to know where they each are on the course. They are often too slow to react and adjust their odds. Often bookmakers identify the number of holes a golfer has left in the round and not account for whether those holes are potential birdie holes, for example.

Weather can play a factor for in-play bet opportunities. With tournaments typically running over four rounds, the weather can change quickly from a Thursday to Sunday. For example, we spotted a potential weather edge develop recently at the Italian Open. Saturday afternoon was suddenly forecast for very high winds. This meant golfers further back on the leaderboard and teeing off earlier Saturday morning were going to enjoy easier scoring conditions. We tipped Robert MacIntyre live in-play, who managed to take advantage of the conditions and went on to win the tournament at odds of 125/1.

Tip 6: Identify Key Improvements in Stoke Gained Trends

If you’re new to Strokes Gained and have not read my Golf DFS 101 article, head over for a basic run-down on Strokes Gained here.

Per that article, ball-striking metrics tend to be “stickier”. If a golfer has made recent improvement in their approach play, this is more likely to be retained to subsequent tournaments. This is one of the key trends I always look for in players that appear to be a good course fit. I also like to identify whether the increase in SG: APP has been linked with recent improvement in driving accuracy. These two metrics combined give an indication that the golfer’s swing is in good shape and they are striking the ball well.

If a player has made recent improvement in SG: APP, driving accuracy, and if they have previous positive course form, that is a situation I want to pay close attention to. Do be aware to check how recent those performances were, as you will want to give less weighting to tournaments which were a month or longer ago.

Putting statistics are not that important (usually) for golf betting

SG: PUTT, followed by SG: ATG, is the most volatile metric. So much of short-game comes down to touch, feel, and confidence. Putts can be off by a mere centimeter and miss, or a golfer can get hot and suddenly make every putt they see.

Yes, there are better putters than others. But, as a rule, a recent hot putting performance does not necessarily mean they will putt well the next tournament. I prefer to see a longer stretch of improved putting before I start giving credence to the fact that the golfer has actually made some permanent gains with the flat-stick.

Regression to the mean

One of the biggest mistakes I see bettors making is not comparing recent improvements to a golfer’s longer term baseline. If Viktor Hovland is hitting the ball well on approach, that is almost a given as he is one of the best iron player’s in the game. We expect him to hit the ball well on approach. However, if Hovland starts hitting more fairways with his driver or making improvements in his SG: ATG, then I am beginning to get interested.

Likewise, if a golfer has had a great week putting, we would expect the golfer to experience regression towards their mean. As putting is more volatile, we typically also experience this regression more quickly. Basically, we would expect the golfer’s form to return towards their average baseline.


There are a huge number of factors that goes into successful golf analysis. The majority can’t, or simply won’t, put in the time required to be able to identify positive EV golf betting opportunities. It always pays to remember that it is the bookmakers job to analyze golf tournaments better than you to set fair pricing. At WinDaily, we are here to help and give you that winning edge!

If you’ve made it this far through the article, are you curious about giving WinDaily a go? Join now with a no obligation 1-month free trial so you can test out the website and services available. If you decide to keep the product, it is the best value on the market at just $5.99 for access to ALL sports.

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If this is your first time reading my article, I’d like to talk about some basics. I only play DraftKings (DK), So those are the salaries I refer to. That being said, My thoughts on the players themselves should be fairly universal across the industry. Strategy in PGA DFS is very important. The players you pick differ substantially depending on the sport, type of game you are playing, and number of contestants in that particular game. This article revolves around cash games, and smaller field, single entry tournaments. My goal is to continuously build a bankroll with cash games, while taking limited risks in smaller field, single entry (SE) tournaments.

Players are popular in PGA DFS for a reason. Knowing when to play, or fade popular (chalk) players can determine whether you make, or lose money in any particular week. This article is intended to determine which of these “chalky” players you should be using, or fading in regards to this particular course. Please keep in mind that most of my picks are highly owned players, so you will need to find contrarian plays as well to win a contest similar to the Millionaire Maker. For more on DFS strategy, please refer to any of our WinDaily articles regarding strategy. Let’s take a look at the course to determine the type of golfer we’re looking for.

Detroit Golf Club, Detroit, Michigan

Detroit Golf Club is a par 72, 7370 yard course designed by Donald Ross. Although tree lined, the fairways are large and easy to hit. The rough is moderate and not very penal. The greens are smaller than average and consist of both POA and Bentgrass. This is only the 3rd year Detroit has hosted this event, so course history is minimal. There aren’t very many obstacles on this course. I’m not going to emphasize scrambling or around the green (ARG) stats too much because frankly, this will be a “birdie fest”. The golfers we pick will need to be scoring heavily as the past 2 champions have been 23, and 25 under par. So if your players are working on their ARG game, that means they’ve missed the green and are trying to save par, and most likely not contending to begin with.


There is chatter going around the PGA DFS industry that this is a “bombers” course. I want to set the record straight. Distance will always be a positive in golf, but it’s not the only factor in winning. Most will have you believe this is a “bombers” course because Bryson DeChambeau won this event in 2020, with Matthew Wolff finishing as a runner up. Both of these players are well documented as hitting the ball very far off the tee (OTT). However, looking deeper into the stats, Bryson did gain 6.7 strokes OTT. Sounds like a lot, but it’s just average for DeChambeau. Wolff only gained 2.7 strokes OTT. I can tell you how they REALLY won it, putting. Strokes Gained (SG) putting for both: Bryson, 7.8; Wolff, 6.1.Adding those numbers in to their other stats, they both had SG: Totals of over 12 strokes, 15 for the champion.

Behind these 2 on the leader board were basically 8 golfers that are known as being much shorter OTT players. In addition to these stats, in the 2019 version of this event, Nate Lashley walked away with top honors after winning a qualifier on the Monday before the event. He wasn’t listed on DraftKings, nor most betting books. Nate Lashley is well known as being one of the shortest drivers on tour.

Bryson Dechambeau

Bryson’s approach (SG: APP) numbers are a little skewed, as are his proximity numbers. He hits the ball so far off the tee, that when he gets close to a green on a par 4, the PGA stat engine often thinks of it as a missed approach shot. This leads to his 2nd shots recording as ARG, instead of close proximity. The only real way to get a feel for his game is to actually watch him play. He’s kind of an anomaly in that way, one that we’ve never really seen before. All this being said, Bryson is a great golfer, but I don’t think he’s been playing as good as he could be. He has a terrible tendency to pull his drives way far to the right, and his SG: APP, and putting has just not been as good as I’ve seen in the past. I think he’s priced appropriately for his Ora so to speak, but I do NOT think he’s the top golfer in this field. At the current time, with the injuries to Webb Simpson, that title belongs to Patrick Reed in my opinion.

There are 4 BIG events on the horizon for professional golf. The Olympics, The (British) Open Championship, The FedEx playoffs, and the Ryder Cup. There are a LOT of golfers out there with their minds set on some of these much bigger events, and you should too. I want to mention 3 golfers in particular. I spoke in length last week on Si Woo Kim’s status in the Olympics regarding his responsibilities with the Military in his home country of Korea, so I’m not going to get in to that again.

Will Zalatoris

We have 2 other high priced golfers on this PGA DFS slate that have narratives flying around that I think are worth mentioning. Will Zalatoris is still an amateur that has been playing on sponsor exemptions all season. Most may not know this as he’s been an absolute beast. The fact of the matter is that unless he wins, he will not secure his PGA card, nor will he be eligible for the FedEx playoffs. This would be a major blow to what has been a top 20 golfer on tour all year long. That doesn’t include the almost 70 million dollars that would be up for grabs to him if he could just win an event!!!

Webb Simpson

Webb Simpson is getting older, and has had a set back injury to his neck. He simply hasn’t played very much lately. The one time we did see him play was at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. This was a course that Simpson never plays because it really doesn’t fit his particular style of game, and it was his first time playing since his return from that injury. He missed the cut. It is my belief that Webb has the stature to pick and choose the events that he wants to play, and specifically picks out courses that he can win on when they don’t involve a major championship.

Webb Simpson is arguably one of the top 10 players in the world, and currently sits on the outside looking in to make the final team for the United States at the Ryder Cup (which is a major in itself, held on U.S. soil this year, and been aggravatingly won by team Europe lately). A win would get Simpson on the team, and he picked THIS course to do it on. By the way, Webb is also well known for being very short OTT. He finished 8th here last year.

Key Metrics

I’ve rambled on long enough. I’m going to make this quite simple. I’m looking for golfers with a good all around game, focusing on SG: APP, and SG: Putting. Of course distance is always a plus, but I may be avoiding it in spots to gain ownership leverage on the field regarding the narrative I laid out above. Finally, I want guys that are coming in with solid form. I don’t care about their stats from 3-4 months ago. There is simply too much on the horizon for these golfers, and us PGA DFS players. We need to stay focused on the present to win some cash this week.

My Player Pool Core

Patrick Reed

Webb Simpson

Will Zalatoris

Jason Kokrak

Matthew Wolff

Gary Woodland

Max Homa

Garrick Higgo

More Risk for More Reward

Brendon Todd

Lucas Glover

Maverick McNealy

Alex Noren

Seamus Power

Sub $7000 (You’re Braver Than I Am, Go get that big GPP)

Beau Hossler

Mito Pereira

Henrik Norlander

Satoshi Kodaira

Austin Eckroat

Justin Suh

It’s a good idea to read all the writers articles here at WinDaily so that you can get the best information the industry has to offer before making the final decisions on your PGA DFS lineups.

Be sure you check out Steven’s (aka Sicily Kid) ownership article on Wednesday evening to fine tune your lineups according to the contests you’re playing.

Join us in the Discord chat rooms as the writers break down and discuss our favorite plays even further. Our family here at WinDaily hopes that we can teach everyone some key factors to success at playing DFS and earn some extra money while doing something we love.

Thank You for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or reach out to me on Twitter. Good Luck this weekend.

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If this is your first time reading my article, I’d like to talk about some basics. I only play DraftKings (DK), So those are the salaries I refer to. That being said, My thoughts on the players themselves should be fairly universal across the industry. Strategy in PGA DFS is very important. The players you pick differ substantially depending on the sport, type of game you are playing, and number of contestants in that particular game.

This article revolves around cash games, and smaller field, single entry tournaments. My goal is to continuously build a bankroll with cash games, while taking limited risks in smaller field, single entry (SE) tournaments. Players are popular in PGA DFS for a reason. Knowing when to play, or fade popular (chalk) players can determine whether you make, or lose money in any particular week. I intend to give my opinion in determining which of these “chalky” players you should be using, or fading in regards to this particular course. Please keep in mind that most of my picks are highly owned players, so you will need to find contrarian plays as well to win a contest similar to the Millionaire Maker.

For more on PGA DFS strategy, please refer to any of our WinDaily articles regarding strategy. Let’s take a look at the course to determine the type of golfer we’re looking for.

Torrey Pines (South Course), La Jolla (San Diego), CA.

Torrey Pines is a municipal golf course. An annual stop on the PGA Tour for The Farmers Insurance Open, players use both the North and South courses at that late January event. This is where we will start seeing our differences. The 2021 U.S. Open will only be played on the more challenging, South course. This is also a USGA event, guaranteed to see over 7600 yards of narrow fairways, extremely thick and penal rough (being June), lightning fast, firm, POA Annua greens, and winds blowing in from the scenic Pacific coastline.

Looking at course history here will not tell you the entire story. I expect this course to play much more difficult than the Farmers, resembling conditions more typical to a U.S. Open, which is played on a different course every year. There are 156 players in this event with only the top 60 (and ties) playing on the weekend. That last tidbit is extremely important as getting 6 of 6 players through the cut will be a big factor of your lineup returning cash in the PGA DFS contests we’re talking about in this article.

Bryson Dechambeau is your returning champion after shooting a -6 at the 2020 U.S, Open. That tournament was held at Winged Foot Golf Club in Mamaroneck, New York. The last time The U.S. Open was played at Torrey Pines was back in 2008. Most golf enthusiasts will remember, a limping Tiger Woods, holding on to a 1 under par to win the prestigious event that year. I expect to see a very similar score this year. Let’s take a look at some key metrics that will help get our golfers on the leader board Sunday.

Key Metrics

Strokes Gained: Approach (SG:APP) One of the most important statistics in PGA DFS, you’re simply not going to win a U.S. Open without SG:APP being a dominant stat in your bag.

Driving Distance: It’s a well known fact that over the last 5 years, Bombers hold a distinctive advantage to finishing on the leader boards at this major. They still need to possess a complete all around game, but being long off the tee gets you a leg up on your competition here.

SG: Around The Green (ARG) The fairways are expected to be narrow, and the rough will be the thickest we’ve seen all season. Getting up and down in 2, or even 3, will be a necessity at a difficult course like this one.

Par 4: 450-500 There are 10 par 4’s at Torrey Pines. 8 of them are north of 450 yards, including a converted par 5, just for this event.

Other metrics to consider: SG:OTT, Fairways gained, Prox: 175-200, Par 3 225+, Par 5’s, GIR, Bogey avoidance, and putting on POA.

My Player Pool Core

Just as a quick reminder, I do not take ownership into consideration when playing cash game contests, or small entry field GPP’s. Therefore, these lists are specific to the PGA DFS players, in my opinion, that will finish well at this tournament. They can be used in larger field tournaments as well, but will most likely need some contrarian players mixed in lineups that contain them.

Jon Rahm $11,200

Collin Morikawa $9500

Xander Schauffele $9300

Tony Finau $8900

Paul Casey $7900

Abraham Ancer $7900

Shane Lowry $7600

Garrick Higgo $7200

Matt Wallace $7100

More Risk for More Reward

Dustin Johnson $10,700

Bryson Dechambeau $10,400

Patrick Reed $9000

Scottie Scheffler $8500

Corey Conners $8200

Sam Burns $7700

Jason Kokrak $7600

Harris English $7300

Max Homa $7300

Charlie Hoffman $7200

Sub $7000 (You’re Braver Than I Am)

Wilco Nienaber $6900

Guido Miggliozzi $6800

Jhonattan Vegas $6800

Jordan L. Smith $6600

Taylor Pendrith $6500

Chan Kim $6100

It’s a good idea to read all the writers articles here at WinDaily so that you can get the best information the industry has to offer before making the final decisions on your PGA DFS lineups.

Be sure you check out Steven’s (aka Sicily Kid) ownership article on Wednesday evening to fine tune your lineups according to the contests you’re playing.

Join us in the Discord chat rooms as the writers break down and discuss our favorite plays even further. Our family here at WinDaily hopes that we can teach everyone some key factors to success at playing DFS and earn some extra money while doing something we love.

Thank You for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or reach out to me on Twitter. Good Luck this weekend.

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When Jon Rahm walked off the 18th green at The Memorial in 2020, he was informed that he would be docked 2 strokes for having moved a blade of grass before completing one of the greatest chip shots I had ever seen. That penalty, albeit now infamous, would not effect the outcome. Jon Rahm was dominant, and became champion of The 2020 Memorial Tournament.


Jon Rahm had been struggling of late. A new sponsor (Calloway) and his new equipment had given him multiple poor showings. He also missed a cut, which made industry headlines. Regardless, He got himself back up, and dusted off. Rahm went out on Saturday morning to finish off a 2nd round 65, that included a hole in one on the 16th hole. Apparently Jon had finally become comfortable with his equipment, and this new Calloway putter. He regrouped quickly, to go out and record a record tying (to Tiger I believe) 64 on Saturday afternoon.

Lightning Strikes Twice

He was walking off the 18th green when he was met by officials once again. They informed him that he had tested positive for Covid 19. Jon Rahm had been deemed close contact with a positively tested person earlier in the week. Previous to the round, Jon had been properly meeting PGA protocols by practicing in quarantine, and testing negative each day of the tournament. He was forced to withdraw from the tournament.

Rahm has just became a father of his first born son, and was also awaiting the arrival of his parents from Spain. He hadn’t seem them since Pre Covid, March of 2020. He was looking to become a back to back champion at The Memorial, and would have won close to $1.7 million dollars.

The worst part. Jon Rahm will now have to self quarantine, and remain in isolation for 14 days. With a newborn son, and parents on U.S. soil, Rahm will not be eligible to return to PGA play until June 15th, which happens to be 2 days before the start of the 3rd major of the season, The U.S. Open at Torrey Pines.

Check back with us in The WinDaily Discord chat rooms on more breaking news.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Final OwnershipGreetings from the southern east coast known as Florida, where this week the top PGA field will battle it out on a very tough and very respected Bay Hill course, and I, in my spare time, will be using my algorithm model to fleece nursing home patients out of their bingo money. This week we use the model for the Arnold Palmer Invitational Final Ownership.There is a rumor Sia and Joel and some of the gang may get press passes to the Honda Classic coming up, I have volunteered to fight off the large gators in Sia’s back yard until he returns, and I will state beforehand I have no knowledge of what happened to all his neighbors' pets. Collin Morikawa smoked the back nine last week to take the WGC Workday tourney, Patrick “Sharps” Scott was passing out cigars like he had a kid. Its funny how Collin was scheduled to appear this week and then vanished, it’s rumored that when Patrick spoke to the authorities and told them the kidnappers only wanted so...

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting SheetGet ready to bet some golf with us! We have you covered with the Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Sheet! We have you covered from all different angles for every golf tournament moving forward. Make sure to check out our new Golf Betting podcast, Bettor Golf!Looking for DFS information? Make sure to check out all the articles we have for you.Team/PlayerSportSportsBookLineUnit RiskMatthew NeSmith Top 40PGAPointsBet+2002.00Kyoung-Hoon Lee Top 40PGADraftkings+2750.25Viktor Hovland Top 10PGADraftkings+1500.75Luke List Top 40PGAPointsBet+1601.00Paul Casey to WinPGAPointsBet+28000.80Corey Conners Top 40PGAPointsBet+1500.30Luke List Top 30PGAPointsBet+2601.20Luke List Top 20PGAFanduel+4500.50Cam Davis Top 40PGAPointsBet+1101.00Luke List Top 10PGAFanduel+9500.25Lanto Griffin Top 40PGAPointsBet+1301.50Lanto Griffin Top 30PGAPointsBet+2100.80Matthew NeSmith Top 30PGAPointsBet+3200.50Charley Hoffman Top 40PGADraftkings+1381.25Bo Hoag Top 40PGAPointsBet+32...

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