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Week 14 Where’s the Money?

It’s good to have information. You don’t need to use it every single time, but there’s a story being told whether you’re listening or not. With sports betting, sometimes you want all the pieces, sometimes you want what you need, and sometimes you want nothing. But when your being shouted at by huge lopsided bets that have stagnant lines, you should probably at least know. So here is Week 14 Where’s the Money?

Colts (-3) at Raiders

Well well well, what do we have here? The Raiders potentially in a trap game? Never heard of it. The Colts and Raiders are both 7-5 against the spread this year, but man have the Raiders been in some weird games. Getting hammered by the Falcons on the road a week after almost beating the Chiefs comes to mind…oh and also not losing to the Jets because they’re tanking.

The Colts really want to be one of the top 5 teams in the AFC but each time we think they’re there, they get blown out or lose to a team they shouldn’t. We can say almost the exact same thing about the Raiders as well. This game is interesting though, Raiders are a home dog and all the money is flowing to the Colts currently, over 90%. The number has moved to -3 after starting at -2.5, but you would think that leaving us on the hook at 2.5 might be the trap… Recency bias should say that the Colts take this one home, and kind of easily, but man oh man, don’t say I didn’t warn you!

Saints (-7) at Eagles

Another home dog, but this one is a bit different. Jalen Hurts is your starting quarterback for the Eagles with the $30 million man backing him up. Now, I’ll say it again, Jalen Hurts is not a good quarterback. He was terrible at throwing while at Alabama and pretty much anyone would look good in Lincoln Riley’s system at Oklahoma. So -7 makes sense here!

The Saints are the hottest team in the NFL winning 9 games in a row after a 1-2 start. So if 85% of the money is coming in on the Saints, why is there some reverse line movement at some books? Meaning, the line started at -7 and even with all the money coming in on the Saints, the bookmakers moved the line to -6.5. Makes ya think. I think the Saints win handily, but so does everyone else, which is scary because the public is usually wrong, especially when the numbers look like this.

Taysom Hill has been solid outside of not needing to do anything against the Broncos, while the Saints defense has been insanely good this year. You would think that the Saints want to put the Eagles in the ground early and then burn the clock running the ball with Kamara and Hill. Seems too easy though, doesn’t it?

Titans (-7.5) at Jaguars

And yet another home dog getting no respect! The Titans are favored by over a touchdown on the road getting about 80% of the money currently. While the Jags are 1-11 and have lost 11 straight, they are 6-6 against the spread this year, so that’s something. Minshew, Luton, and Glennon haven’t looked alllll that terrible this year, and the Jags put themselves in positions to win. Losing to Tennessee by less than a score the first time they played and taking the Vikings to overtime last week!

Tennessee has been a weird team this year to say the least with some blowout losses (Browns last week) and wins that didn’t make any sense (blowing out the Bills). This is also a divisional game, an AFC South divisional games, so it shouldn’t be what we expect in the least. But the public is riding this 7.5 on the Titans and are willing to go down with the ship. The line hasn’t moved at all either, so Vegas is happy with the action.

Thanks for checking out this edition of Week 14 Where’s the Money? No matter what happens, just remember to have fun out there! Make sure to sign up for our Sports Betting Membership so you can win these games, because that’s what we do. Make sure to check out all our Sportsbook friends and sign up with our promo codes so you can get FREE MONEY!

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@MichaelRasile1 | @WinDailySports

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Where’s The Money This Thanksgiving?

Happy Thanksgiving weekend everybody! Beer, birds, and ‘ball for all! I’m still firmly entrenched in the ‘Christmas is way better than Thanksgiving’ crowd, but that doesn’t mean I don’t love this holiday! Thanksgiving this year will probably be a bit different, but at least we have football to bet on so we don’t have to talk to our family too much. As always, make sure to check the lines to see where the best odds are, so you can take more of the Sportsbook’s money. We also have our really, really ridiculously good looking Black Friday sale where everything, including our Sports Betting Membership is 50% off! So, let me tell you Where’s The Money This Thanksgiving.

Obvious note* The Ravens Steelers game was postponed due to COVID, which sucks, so make sure you leave your holiday party right after the Cowboys lose.

Texans (-3) at Lions

We all saw last week right? It was only a couple days ago at this point. The Texans opened as favorites against the Pats, the public saw the Pats beat the Ravens and was like ‘Patriots are GETTING points? LFG!’ Turns out the line was right when it came out, but you probably weren’t going to take that line anyway. So the Texans beat the Pats as technical underdogs and I guess we like them again? I personally just think the Ravens suck this year, come @ me, @MichaelRasile1.

But we also saw the Lions as underdogs not even score a point against a not-very-good Panthers team. What gives with that? Swift didn’t play and neither did Golladay, but he’s been screwing me all year so whatever at that point. Seriously though, not scoring a point? That’s alarming. So this game opened as Texans -2.5, and has been bet up to -3 with 80% of the money coming in on the Texans. But shouldn’t that number be higher? Seems a bit fishy to me that after the Texans beat the Pats and the Lions don’t score, this number should be a bit bigger. This is the stuff that worries me.

If you’re looking to bet this game, I suggest finding the best line and taking advantage of all our partners and programs!

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Football Club at Cowboys (-3)

Well, this is the last game on Thanksgiving now. So it’s perfect that it’s the NFC battle for first place that will last until Sunday or Monday depending on what the Giants and Eagles do. Only a couple weeks ago the Football Club kicked the shit out the Cowboys and knocked Dalton out for a few games with a concussion and he then got COVID, but those two are probably not linked? Each team is (surprisingly) coming off wins to teams that also suck, but because the Cowboys were able to score points I believe that they’re getting the bump. Also it’s “America’s Team” so they usually get an extra bump from that. Double Bump.

This line opened Cowboys -1 and has moved to Cowboys -3 with about a 55/45 split in terms of bets and handle. I’m not aware of any COVID positives or injury news that would move the line 2 points so I’m very curious why. Did Vegas think we would all take the WFC at basically a pick’em? Now that we didn’t are they thinking they can rope us in with +3? Yeah, they got me. I’m going Washington +3 and have them in a moneyline parlay with all the dogs on Thanksgiving. *FanDuel won’t give me my money back for the parlay’s because the Ravens game is still happening? Surprise, FanDuel being Fanduel.*

It’s a weird line to say the least, but both of the games smell a little weird to me. I’ll watch both of these games, bet both games, bet props for these games, whatever I have to do to not talk about politics with my family. 🤗🤗🤗

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Thanks for checking out this edition of Where’s The Money This Thanksgiving. No matter what happens, just remember to have fun out there! Make sure to sign up for our Sports Betting Membership so you can win these games, because that’s what we do.

@MichaelRasile1 | @WinDailySports

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NFL Week 11 Where’d the Money Go?

It was a weird weekend in the NFL and there was a lot of money to go around. The Win Daily Sports Betting Membership did pretty well going 4-2 with wins by the Cowboys, WFT, Broncos, and Texans. The loses were by the Chargers 🙄 and Ravens. This netted us 6.55 units on the games for a nice weekend. You can now get our Sports Betting Membership and our Gold Membership for 50% off for our Black Friday Sales! We also had our prop bets go 4-0 this weekend for a very fun, and happy, Family! But what happened for the rest of them? Here’s our NFL Week 11 Where’d the Money Go?

Against the Spread

A few of these games I highlighted in my Where’s the Money? article from last week, as something to pay attention to. But man oh man, this was a bad weekend for the public! Of the top 11 most lopsided bets, the public was only on the correct side twice…yikes.

Dolphins -3.5, with almost 80% of the money, nope. Chiefs -7.5, with almost 75% of the money, nope. Over 70% of the money on the Lions at +1.5, they didn’t even score a point. Seahawks at -3 and Steelers at -10.5, both had 70% of the public making money! Patriots -2, I think they might be bad again. Bengals +1.5, RIP Joe B, hope a full and speedy recovery because that dude is awesome. Falcons +4, ahahah Taysom Hill! Packers +2.5, my goodness what a terrible loss. Chargers +8.5, gotta love the Chargers doing their thing, never disappoints!

What a weekend for the books! So many of these games had weird lines to begin with and ended up having some weird plays that led to the outcomes. Tua in the altitude didn’t work so much. Raiders might be good?! Packers not having the ball the whole second half to then fumble in OT to lose the game. And the Chargers self safety takes the cake, as the Chargers usually do.

Thanks for checking out NFL Week 11 Where’d the Money Go? Here’s to hoping that next week is a little more kind to us public bettors! Make sure to sign up for the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership for 50% off and to always be finding the best odds for your state on our NFL Betting Odds page.

@MichaelRasile1 | @WinDailySports

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NFL Week 11: Where’s the Money?

Last week we did a good job at pointing out that everything is not quite as it seems. The Ravens were getting all that money at -7 and couldn’t even win outright, taking the Seahawks – even getting 2 points – was a bad idea, and that Saints 49ers game was probably a little too close for comfort depending on how much money you may have had on the game. This week we’ll be going over the 3 teams with the most money on them and see how they might fair for NFL Week 11: Where’s the Money?

Dolphins (-3.5) at Broncos

This game feels a lot like the one we saw last week with the Dolphins. Favored by only a couple points over the Chargers, my assumption was that Vegas was trying to bait us into taking the Dolphins because they knew something we didn’t. Even after the Dolphins were receiving all the money, we had some reverse line movement that made it seem like more of a lock. The Dolphins end up winning comfortably, but it still is something to pay attention to.

Now, we see Tua in his first road game, in Mile High. The Broncos are bad, don’t get me wrong, but 3.5 still doesn’t seem like enough to me. Drew Lock is splitting first team reps with Mark Rypien’s something-or-other, and this defense isn’t much to write home about. The one thing the Broncos have going for them are some good young wide receivers, but with no QB and going up against the Dolphins two great DBs, it seems that’s a wash at best. Currently, over 90% of the money is coming in on the Dolphins at -3.5 and the line has stood there. Maybe that .5 could end up being very, very important to the Sports Books this week.

Chiefs (-8) at Raiders

Chiefs are coming off a bye. Chiefs have only one loss this year, and it’s to the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes has one pick this year, and it was against the Raiders. The Raiders put almost their entire starting defense on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Why is this line only 8 points? And more importantly, why did it start at -9.5 to the Chiefs and come down?

Oh and on top of that, over 90% of the money is coming in on the Chiefs. What are we missing? I honestly have no idea. I personally think the Chiefs roll in this one and do whatever they can to continue separating from the Raiders in the standings, putting up 100 is not in the question. Maybe there’s something I’m missing though? 🤷‍♂️

Rams at Bucs (-3.5)

Which TB12 do we get? The one that threw three picks and put up three points? Or the one that goes for 5 TDs and puts the other teams face into the ground? Well, it seems that the public believes its the latter. We’re currently seeing about 75% of the money come in on the home favorite, moving the line to -4, even after the Rams beat the Seahawks last week.

And, yes, while the Rams did beat the Seahawks if feels like it wasn’t that convincing of a win. A bad Seahawks defense only allowed the Rams to get 23 total points, and only 6 in the second half. This Rams offense should have been able to put up more, but Jared Goff hasn’t changed and here we are. This is with Russell Wilson turning the ball over 4 times, the Rams were still only able to win by 7. Maybe the public is thinking that the Giants and Saints games were more exceptions to the rule, instead of the rule itself. Maybe they’re thinking, if the Seahawks defense looked that good who knows what the Bucs defense will be able to do. But this one is something I’m excited to keep my eyes on and see how it plays out.

Thanks for checking out this article on NFL Week 11 where’s the money! Make sure to check out the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership to tail our house capper, check out our reviews on all the major sportsbooks including BetMGMWilliam HillDraftKings, and FanDuel, and make sure to hop into our expert chat for 7 days FREE if you haven’t already. Also, go get yourself some FREE money from our partners, they’re nice people and want you to have money, so take it.

@MichaelRasile1 | @WinDailySports

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NFL Week 10 Where’s the Money?

Another week, another few games that open our eyes! We’re onto week 10, so we should have a good amount of information for each of these teams, but some are still hard to figure out. Hopefully we can be on the right side of these bets this week.

Ravens (-7) at Patriots

The Ravens we’re a crowd favorite to make it to the Super Bowl out of the AFC and the Patriots have been the team to do just that almost every year in the last couple decades. 2020 hasn’t been the best year for any either team so far. The Ravens sit at a comfortable 6-2, but sit 2 games back in the AFC North. Their offense hasn’t been close to what it was last year, with barely any explosive plays and Lamar seemingly taking a step back in the passing game. The Pats have been nothing but bad this year outside of one fun game in Seattle. Everything else has seemed to be a struggle, including a last minute win against the Jets on Monday Night.

This game opened at the Ravens as 7.5 favorites and after seeing 90% if the money, the line has gone down to -7. Make’s ya think, 🤔🤔🤔. If there is reverse line movement when we’re seeing this much money, my assumption is that Vegas thinks the Pats cover this easy and are bating up to keep taking the Raven’s at 7. I think the Ravens win but the Pats cover. Be weary if you are taking the Ravens, but their defense should be up to the task and their offense should be able to figure it out against this bad Patriots defense.

Seahawks at Rams (-2)

This Seahawks defense is one of the worst defenses ever in the NFL. They are on pace to be the worst passing defense in history, literally. Couple that with the Rams and wunderkin Sean McVay and you would assume that the Rams would be favored, but only 2 points? Oh, and the Rams are coming off a bye, so more time to figure out how to run up the score.

With all that, more than 60% of the bets are coming in on the Seahawks and almost 90% of the money! Why does the public and the sharp money seem to love the Seahawks getting 2 points on the road…with the worst defense ever…against a great offense…coming off a bye? Seriously, someone tell me. I think the Seahawks are obligated this year to play is wacky/close games, but this is weird to me. But I’m with everyone else, I think the Hawks win. But what do I know? Also, the line never moved with allllllll that money coming in on the Seahawks.

49ers at Saints (-10)

Man, can you say recency bias? We watched the 49ers get throttled on Thursday Night on the Aaron Rodgers FU tour, while watching the Saints beat the ever loving shit out of the Bucs on Sunday Night. But always remember, you’re not as good as your best game, and not as bad as your worst.

That being said, this line opened at -6.5 favoring the Saints. Over 70% of the bets and 80% of the money have come in on the Saints, naturally. But man of man, 10 points is A LOT. I personally think 10 is too many and you should too! The Saints are getting healthier, and the 49ers can’t get any more hurt (right?), but I think with that much line movement you might want to stay away. Starts getting a little scary at that point…

Thanks for checking out this article on where the money is going! Make sure to check out the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership to tailing our house capper, check out our reviews on all the major sportsbooks including BetMGM, William Hill, DraftKings, and FanDuel, and make sure to hop into our expert chat for 7 days FREE if you haven’t already.

@MichaelRasile1 | @WinDailySports

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Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Week 7. What a time to be alive. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. This model is meant for taking advantage of sports betting market errors. If you don’t get a similar price to what we post here, it’s recommended that you do not play those NFL Prop Bets. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).Team/PlayerSportsBookLineUnit RiskTampa Bay -4DraftKings-1100.7DAL/WAS O45DraftKings-1091.5Marques Valdez-Scantling O42.5 YdsFanDuel-1101.2Marvin Jones O44.5 Rec Yds Rec ydsFD-1101Jerick Mckinnon O52.5 Rush YdsFD-1100.75James Connor O63.5 Rush YdsDK-1340.8Mik...

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Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Week 6. What a time to be alive. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. This model is meant for taking advantage of sports betting market errors. If you don’t get a similar price to what we post here, it’s recommended that you do not play those NFL Prop Bets. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).Team/PlayerSportsBookLineUnit RiskN'Keal Harry O37.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1101Devonta Freeman U60.5 Rush ydsPointsBet-1151.1Preston Williams O38.5 Rec ydsFanDuel-1151.6David Montgomery O60.5 Rush ydsPointsBet-1151Marquez Valdes-Scantling O41.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1101.1...

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10.10 NFL Sunday Picks

The Win Daily Sports Family has been hot recently with a 20+ unit weekend for Football just a few days ago! So, we wanted to help out some of our friends with a few more picks for this coming weekend to get you in the money with us. Here is how we are leaning for our 10.10 NFL Sunday Picks, but make sure to check back in to our Win Daily Sports Betting Membership before your place those bets!

Eagles at Steelers (-7)

After what looked like an amazing come from behind win against the 49ers on Sunday Night Football, the Eagles seem to be flying high! But let’s remember that they essentially beat a second string team and needed a heck of a lot to go their way to get that done. Their offensive line is banged up and their wide receivers are even more hurt, if that’s possible. Doug Peterson feels the need to get Jalen Hurts in the huddle multiple times a game and so far it has rarely worked in their favor. 

As for the Steelers, they’re coming off an unplanned bye week, something we don’t see often in the NFL. If this were a Browns team with a first year head coach and a young QB I might be worried, but I think Tomlin and Big Ben will be just fine. The Steelers defense seems to be shaping up into one of the better units in the NFL and their front 4 should have a field day with the Eagles offensive line. 

One thing of note, the Steelers have been receiving most of the bets as well as a significant amount of money and the game has not budged at all. Opened at -7 to the Steelers and is still sitting there. Even with that said, I like the Steelers to win comfortably at home this weekend.

Jaguars at Texans (-6)

The inevitable has finally happened, it just seems like it is long overdue. Bill O’Brien is finally out as the head coach AND GM of the Houston Texans. So maybe this gives a boost to the Texans? Probably not. Their team is very bad. They have a poor run defense, poor wide receiving core, no run game, and DeShaun Watson is always running for his life even after they invested heavily in the offensive line. The Texans are normally the better team in this matchup, but so far this seems pretty even, especially considering it is a divisional game.

The Jaguars were the darlings of the NFL for the first couple weeks of the season where they beat the Colts, the favorite to win their division, and lost to the Titans by 3 in an unexpected back and forth game. After that they looked pretty bad. They lost to Miami on TNF and got beat up by the Bengals last week. 

BUT since the spread to this game is close to a touchdown, we like the Jags in this case. Neither team is good, but I don’t believe that the Texans are a touchdown better. I’m taking the Jags and the points, but don’t be shocked if the Jags win outright against this terrible Texans team.

Colts (-1.5) at Browns

So you think you know football? The Cleveland Browns are 3-1 for the first time since 2001! Woo, let that sink in for a second. And I don’t think it’s a flukey 3-1, I think this team finally figured out what they need to do to win football games. They have a good offensive line and a VERY good run scheme. They’re limiting Baker’s attempts to cut down on errant throws and interceptions, and keep feeding those running backs. Unfortunately, one of those backs, Nick Chubb, will be out for a couple weeks with an MCL injury. Kareem Hunt becomes the lead back and should be just fine toting the rock 20 times a game, let’s not forget he won a rushing title with Kansas City a few years ago.

The Colts have won some ugly games this year, but it doesn’t matter how you win it’s if you win. Philip Rivers looks bad and seems to be more of a game manager than the QB we remember. His trash talking is still on point though. This should be the time where they try to give Jonathan Taylor the ball as many times a game to run behind that offensive line, but for some reason they see the need to split carries between him, Hynes, and Wilkins. The Colts have a great front 7 and have shown that the last couple of years, but may take a huge hit with Darius Leonard not practicing this week. This would be costly loss for that Colts defense.

With two teams that matchup well against one another, we will ride with who has the better QB. Baker and the Browns cover this 1.5 point spread and make you some money this weekend!

Vikings at Seahawks (-7)

Neither of these teams have particularly good defenses, which is weird because it feels like they have had some of the best defenses over the last 5-8 years. But 2020 has thrown them a curveball. The Vikings have lost most of their secondary through free agency and retooled with a bunch of rookies back there. They also have lost Everson Griffin, Anthony Barr, and Danielle Hunter, three names that have seemed to be huge parts of what they’ve been doing over that period of time. Their offense has looked bad this year, particularly Kirk Cousins. Losing Stephon Diggs might be a bigger loss than what they may have originally thought. They have turned it on a bit in the last few weeks against the Titans and Texans though, leaving a slightly better taste in our mouth.

With all that being said, the Seahawks defense is almost in as bad of shape as the Vikings. They bring in Jamal Adams who looked great, but is now hurt. They lost Bruce Irving who they brought back, and their first round draft pick is already hurt as well. The Seahawks have had one of the best offenses in the league through the first quarter of the season, and Russell Wilson is currently the lead dog in the MVP race.

The problem with this game is the line. While the Seahawks have covered every spread so far this season, I am rolling with the Vikings in this spot. I think the Seahawks win another but 7 points is too much for their defense that has been nothing but bad this season. 

Thanks for checking out some of my favorite picks for 10.10 NFL Sunday Picks! Make sure to follow us on Twitter @WinDailySports as well. And if you want more winning picks make sure to sign up for the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership

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Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Thursday Night Football! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/PlayerSportsBookLineUnit Risk
Darnell Mooney O37.5 Rec YdsFanDuel-1100.5

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as this football season moves onward.

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NFL Week 4 Where’s the Money?

Well, we finally have our first COVID outbreak of the 2020 NFL season and let me say I’m just happy they have found a way to continue playing. Even with everyone making fun of what was supposed to be a low scoring terrible Thursday Night Game with the Broncos and Jets, we have to remember that this season can be taken away from us at any point. This also means we should bet more games! It was interesting to break down where all the money was going last week and to see where the sharps were going and where the public was putting their confidence. So lets look at NFL Week 4 Where’s the Money?

Make sure to check out the Win Daily Sports NFL Week 4 Betting Lines Show to make more money with us this weekend, sign up for a Win Daily Sports Betting Membership to cash every sport with us, and to find the best odds from the books in your state check out our NFL Odds page!

Cardinals (-3.5) at Panthers

Last week we saw the Panthers were getting over 6 points from a mediocre Chargers team starting a rookie QB, making it easy to understand why the public was putting more money on them. This week we see the Panthers at home against what seems to be a pretty good Cardinals team that lost a close one to the Lions last week.

The Panthers have been gashed on the ground this year and it seems a team like the Cardinals would be the perfect team to exploit that. A very good running back in Kenyon Drake, a solid back up with Chase Edmonds, and one of the quickest and shiftiest runners in Kyler Murray. With knowing this information it makes sense that over 73% of the bets coming in would be on the Cardinals -3.5, but you’d probably be curious as to why over 89% of the money is on the Panthers at +3.5.

Maybe it’s a team going West to East for a 1 o’clock game? Maybe some whales think that Teddy B will be able to show up Kyler? I’m not sure at all, but it definitely is something to monitor leading up to kick off. This could be a case of bettors wanting that number to come down to -3 or -2.5 to hammer the Cardinals on the way up.

Chargers at Bucs (-7)

There is something about this Bucs team that makes the public want to love them and Sharps betting against them. This week it’s the big money players and the Sharps (I’m sure there’s some cross over there) that are going to be against this Bucs team. Last week I didn’t think it made any sense to be on the Broncos especially when they were starting someone no named Drew Lock. Shoot, they almost lost to the Jets!

This week it makes a bit more sense though with the Chargers receiving 7 points. The Chargers will be starting a rookie QB, but it’s not quite Bill B back there scheming up the defense. Todd Bowles is no slouch, but we think Tom Brady we usually just assume. The Bucs have been looking better and better each start this season, but have been running into injury after injury.

Chris Godwin will be out this game and probably a few more this year, Mike Evans still doesn’t look fully healthy, and Leonard Fournette doesn’t look like he’ll be making a start either. On top of the injuries the Chargers defensive line is fantastic, while the Bucs offensive line is good at best.

It makes sense that a Tom Brady lead team going up against a rookie QB would lead to almost 70% of the bets to come in on the Bucs to win by 7, but as we said, the Sharps and big bettors would disagree. Over 70% of the money has been pouring in the on Chargers +7 this weekend!

Patriots at Chiefs (-7)

We saw a lot of money come in on the defending Super Bowl champs last week to cover the 3.5 points against the Ravens, and it worked like a charm. This week is a similar set up, but with a different coach on the sidelines. After dominating what most people thought was the best team in the NFL last week, the Chiefs opened as 8 point favorites against the Patriots.

Now we know this isn’t quite the same Pats team we’ve seen year in and year out. They had the most COVID opt outs, and, oh yeah, 2016 Cam Newton is playing for them this year.

This line quickly moved down to -7 and you can now get it at -6.5 at some books. Why the 1.5 point swing to the Pats? The big money seems to think that spread is too much to give Bill B. Over 75% of the money has been coming in on the Patriots to cover, but it should be interesting to say the least. We’re also seeing the Sharp money is coming in on the Chiefs to cover, so we have some clashing ideologies here. For what it’s worth, a little over 60% of bets place are on the Chiefs to cover.

Jaguars (+3) at Bengals

My goal with this article is to give you the 3 biggest discrepancies in terms of who the bets are on, and where the money is going. It’s fun to fade the public in most situations because they are routinely wrong. With that being said, I had to add in a 4th because it’s a doozy.

Everyone was on the Jags last week at -3 against the Dolphins and were shown up pretty quickly. It was as classic Fitzmagic game and he did not disappoint. So after being favored last week, the Jags are now back in their rightful place of being underdogs.

We also saw the Joe Burrow Bengals trek to Philadelphia, where only bad things happen, to tie the Eagles covering the spread in the process. But there was a funny thing happening after that Eagles Bengals game, other than everyone asking where Doug Peterson’s fearlessness went. With the outcome as a tie, many people were praising the Bengals for what they did and destroying the Eagles for what they did. But again, they tied.

So with positive public perception on their side, the Bengals go into this week as a team that we all thought looked good last week! Even though the Eagles are literally just as bad as they are, if not worse. The Jags will be coming off a bad loss, but 10 days rest.

With the Jags now getting those 3 points they gave last week, we have over 60% of the bets in their favor to cover the spread AND 99% of the money on them to cover. Now it’s not quite sharp money on the Jags, but with that much going in their direction Vegas is not moving this line. It opened at +3 to the Jags and looks to be staying there even with all the action on them. Sounds like Vegas thinks if they move off that magical number of 3 things will start to move against them….

Thanks for checking out NFL Week 4 Where’s the Money? If you’re looking to start making some money betting this NFL season, and every other sport for that matter, make sure to check out the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership where we post daily plays on spreads, totals, and player props. Make sure to follow me @MichaelRasile1 on Twitter and check out all the content over on the Win Daily Sports Show Podcast!

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