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Thursday night football brings us to sunny Miami for a match up between my hometown Baltimore Ravens (6-2) and the Miami Dolphins (2-7).  Both of these teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of the standings as the Ravens are currently in first in the AFC North while the Dolphins are in dead last in the AFC East.  Yes, even behind the New York Jets.  The Dolphins will more than likely be without their starter in Tua Tagovailoa but as we’ve seen this season, Jacoby Brissett has been able to fill in admirably.  Well sometimes. 

With that said, lets dig in!

More or Less

Lamar Jackson – 235.5 Passing Yards – More

While I expect the Ravens to get up early and stay up, this game has the makings of a celling type game for Lamar Jackson.  Jackson grew up less than an hour from Miami and will surely be extra motivated in what should be a ton of family and friends. 

His main counterpart, Marquise Brown, is also a South Florida native who grew up about 30 minutes from Miami.  I anticipate Jackson going to Brown early and often in this one.  Jackson has had only 2 games this season where he’s had less than 236 yards passing, with one of those games being right at 235.  Look for Jackson to have a monster game tonight.

Jacoby Brissett – 230.5 Passing Yards – Less

The Ravens are a touchdown favorite tonight on the road and if the game script goes to plan, they’ll be up early in this game. In theory that would mean Brissett will be throwing often in this one.  Although the Ravens defense has looked suspect at times this year, they looked solid last week against the Vikings.  Cousins ended up with less than 200 yards passing.  I just don’t see Brissett being able to solve this defense tonight. 

Rapid Fire

Lamar Jackson vs. Jacoby Brissett (+5.5)

I’ve already highlighted above that I think that Brissett struggles tonight against a defense that played much better last week.  Jackson will be extra motivated tonight playing in a city that he was close to growing up.  I’m picking Lamar Jackson here, even with the extra 5.5 yards Brissett would get.

Myles Gaskin vs. Devonta Freeman (+2.5)

With my expectation that Brissett struggles tonight, I expect that the Dolphins will run and find some success doing it.  In 4 out of the last 5 weeks the Ravens have given up more than 100 yards rushing.  While Gaskin hasn’t really had much success on the ground this season, the Ravens haven’t proven they can stop anyone on the ground. 

If we look on the other side of the game we have a running back that nearly doubled his season output in rushing yards last weekend in Freeman. He’s been a part time back for the majority of the year.  The Dolphins have progressively gotten better against the run over the course of the season.  To start the year they gave up over 100 yards rushing in weeks 1-5.  Since then, they haven’t given up more than 75 yards rushing in a game.  If the Ravens have success on the ground tonight it will be from Lamar Jackson and not Devonta Freeman.  I’m picking Myles Gaskin in this one.

Summary

This should be a fun game tonight. Lamar Jackson has been his best in prime time this season. Look for him to have one of his monster games in the air and on the ground tonight.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot.  Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000! 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Joey Gallo vs. Zach Plesac

Joe Gallo is pretty hot right now and I want to make sure to take advantage of his streak.  Over the last week he has 4 homers and 91% fly ball rate.  His launch angle is tailored to home runs right now.  Looking back 30 days Gallo has a .373 ISO vs. righties and he gets to take on a very beatable righty in Zach Plesac.

Plesac tends to give up more fly balls to lefties as over the last 30 days his fly ball rate is 46% against them vs. just 39% for righties.  Love the spot tonight for Gallo and look for him to take Plesac deep into the right field seats at Yankee Stadium.  Confidence Level – High

Hunter Renfroe vs. Keegan Akin

Over the last 30 days Hunter Renfro has been absolutely destroying left handed pitching.  He owns a .462 ISO and a .511 wOBA over since mid-August.  His average distance over that stretch is an insane 343 feet.  He gets a great match up tonight against a pitcher in Akin who is due for some nasty regression. 

His xFIP is almost 2 runs higher than his ERA.  This has been mostly due to some luck.  On balls in play (this excludes homers) hitters have just a .145 average.  If we add in that his fly ball rate over the last month is nearly 55% and he’s given up 9 barrels we can decipher that hitters ‘are just missing it’ against him.  I highly doubt that Renfroe misses one tonight.  The only thing that he may miss is a windshield on Lansdowne Street when he takes one over the green monster tonight.  Confidence Level – Very High

Jesus Sanchez vs. Will Crowe

Sanchez is one of the hottest hitters in the game right now.  Over the last week he has 5 homers, 7 barrels, a .568 wOBA, and a 1.426 OPS.  That OPS Is just bonkers.  This is a spot for him tonight that should have him continue his hot streak at the plate.  He gets a very soft match up in Will Crowe who has a 6.02 xFIP over the last month. 

Crowe’s been especially bad against lefties as he’s giving up a .302 ISO to them.  He’s going to throw his change up about 25% of the time tonight to Sanchez and if he leaves one of those over the plate, it’s gone.  Sanchez owns a .450 ISO against change ups coming from righties.  He loves the pitch and I love him for a homer tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Tonight my pool will consist of these 3 batters.  These three all stand a solid chance to homer.  They match up great w/ the pitcher.  Other guys I also love to homer tonight are Bryce Harper vs. Taijuan Walker, Luis Robert vs. Taylor Hearn, and Daniel Vogelbach vs. Zach Davies. 

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot.  Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000! 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Bo Bichette vs. Sean Manaea

Sean Manaea has had an extremely rough last month.  Over the last 30 days he’s sporting a 5.13 xFIP and a ton of hard contact at 37%.  The majority of the damage coming against him has been coming from the batters from the right side of the plate.  They have a .408 ISO and a .513 wOBA against him.  Just awful numbers. 

In his last 15 innings of work he’s given up 7 homers.  That’s a pretty torrid pace and something we’ll want to take advantage of tonight.  The guy I’m going to use from the Blue Jays is Mr. Bo Bichette.  Over the last month, and really season, he’s been great against lefties.  He has a .222 ISO against them with a .373 wOBA.  His average air distance is an astonishing 343 feet. 

Another reason I love Bichette tonight is he’s been great against sinkers this year.  Manaea throws his almost 60% of the time and Bichette has a slugging % of .570 against them this year.  Love his chances of taking Manaea deep tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Luke Voit vs. John Means

Means has really been a different pitcher since coming back from injury.  His biggest struggles since returning have come against righties. They have a .391 ISO and a .453 wOBA against him over the last month.  He’s been giving up way too many fly balls to them with a 46% fly ball rate.  I’m going to attack him w/ a player that’s been hot over the past month. 

Voit has a .318 ISO against lefties in August with a .470 wOBA.  He’s also been getting the ball in the air against them w/ a 53% fly ball rate and an average air distance of 386 feet.  He should have no trouble with Means fastball as he’s been crushing fastballs all year.  There’s a solid chance of Voit taking a Means pitching into the left field stands of Yankee Stadium tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Austin Meadows vs. Randy Dobnak

Dobnak makes his first appearance in the Majors since mid-June and boy does he wish he was seeing a different opponent.  This could not be a worse match up for him as he throws a pitch that the Rays excel at, the Sinker.  First lets start w/ why I’m picking on Dobnak. 

The former Lyft driver has had a rough year, especially against lefties.  On the year lefties have a .324 ISO against him and a .456 wOBA.  Really bad numbers from him.  Rays have a handful of lefties but my focus is going to be Austin Meadows. 

One of the pitches that Meadows excels the most at hitting is the sinker.  On the year he has a .662 slugging %.  It’s a pitch he loves to hit.  The good thing for him is that Dobnak’s sinker has not been good.  Batters have a near 60% hard hit rate against it and a .467 slugging %.  I just don’t see how Meadows doesn’t take Dobnak deep tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Tonight my pool will consist of these 3 batters but their teammates stand just as good a chance of homering as they do.  For the Blue Jays, I also love Teoscar Hernandez and George Springer.  Yankees I also love Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge.  Lastly, Brandon Lowe of the Rays should also stand a good chance at a homer.  

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot.  Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000! 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Jorge Soler vs. Keegan Akin

My first pick brings us to Camden Yards.  We have Keegan Akin on the hill for the Orioles and it’s been a struggle for him this season.  Over the last 30 days it’s been even worse as he has a 6.73 xFIP and is giving up a 50% fly ball rate. 

Fly balls in the summer in Camden are not a good combo.  The guy that I’m going to attack Akin with is Jorge Soler.  Over the last 30 days Soler has been crushing lefties.  He has a .619 ISO and .468 wOBA.  Those are just insane numbers. 

If we look at pitch data Soler should see a ton of fastballs this year.  On the year he’s crushing them.  He has a .500 slugging % and 53% hard hit rate against fastballs.  Look for him to drop one into the left field stand later tonight.  Confidence Level  – High

Teoscar Hernandez vs. Tyler Alexander

Whether it’s dfs or MKF Alexander is a favorite of mine to pick on.  He’s just someone that gives up a ton of hard contact and fly balls.  Those are 2 things I look at the most when looking for home runs.  He checks off all the boxes. 

Over the past month he’s been getting tagged for a 48% fly ball rate and 49% hard hit rate.  Just really poor performance from Alexander.  We want to attack Alexander with righties and the guy I will use tonight is Hernandez. 

He has a .737 ISO against lefties over the past month with a .718 wOBA.   His average exit velocity is almost 100 mph with a distance of around 380 feet.  Hernandez is crushing lefties and he should continue the trend tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Avisail Garcia vs. Patrick Corbin

Corbin is another one of my favorite targets.  In his last 28 innings of work he’s given up 10 homers.  Giving up a homer at that pace is really an accomplishment that speaks for itself.  Corbin has very clear splits. 

He’s dominant against lefties with a .042 ISO.  Against righties it’s a whole different story.  Righties have a .391 wOBA and .385 ISO against him.  Garcia is my target here.  He’s been crushing lefties over the last month and he also homered twice Wednesday night.  He’s dialed in.  Over the past month he has a .528 wOBA against lefties.  No reason to think that Corbin will slow him down.  Confidence Level – High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Tonight my pool will consist of these 3 batters I just mentioned, but know that the environment for their teammates is just as good.  Righties vs. Akin, righties vs. Alexander, and righties vs. Corbin.  

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot.  Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000! 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Brandon Lowe/Austin Meadows vs. Michael Pineda

Pineda is someone that has very clear splits.  Against righties he’s really able to limit power because he induces a whole lot of ground balls.  Against lefties it’s a whole different story.  His fly ball rate and hard hit rate both jump to 42%.  Lefties have a .243 ISO and .336 wOBA against him this year.  Tonight he’s going to have his hands full with a lineup full of lefties. 

There are two guys on the Rays that should go yard tonight, Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows.  If we look at pitch mix both of these guys are going to see a heavy amount of low 90’s fastballs.   Let’s start with Austin Meadows.  He has a near .700 ISO against this pitch from righties over the past few years.  Lowe, while not as exaggerated as Meadows, has a .250 ISO with an average distance of 322 feet.  Both guys stand a great chance to hit a long one tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Jose Ramirez/Franmil Reyes vs. Tyler Alexander

My next targets bring us to Detroit with the Cleveland Indians facing off against Tyler Alexander.  Alexander is another guy that has very clear splits.  He’s actually pretty dominant against lefties with just a .241 wOBA against them this year. 

Righties are a whole different story.  Batters from the right side have a .354 wOBA and .214 ISO against him this year.  They hit the ball significantly harder against him.  Alexander’s pitch of choice to righties is his cutter.  This is a pitch that Ramirez absolutely destroys from lefties. 

Over the last few years Ramirez has a .424 ISO with an average distance of 337 feet to this pitch type.  Reyes is no slouch against this pitch either.  He has an average exit velocity of 96 mph and an average distance of 311 feet.  Confidence Level – High

Bryce Harper vs. Tyler Mahle

It’s going to be hot in Philly tonight.  When it’s hot in Citizens the ball go far.  And the ball it will be traveling far tonight off the bat of Bryce Harper.  On the year Harper has a .345 ISO and .439 wOBA against righties.  He’s making an extremely strong case for MVP and if I had to guess, he’s the front runner right now. 

He’s going to be seeing a mid 90’s fastball from Mahle tonight and it’s a pitch he should not have any issues with.  He owns a .333 ISO and .463 wOBA against this type of pitcher over the least several years.  While Mahle isn’t a bad pitcher he is prone to the home run ball with 6 in his last 28 innings of work.  Tonight, Harper will make it 7 as he adds to Mahle’s monthly total.  Confidence Level – Highish

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Tonight my pool will consist of the 5 batters I just mentioned, with Ramirez, Meadows, and Harper my favorite of the bunch. 

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot.  Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000! 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Trey Mancini vs. Ryan Yarbrough

The first two guys I have listed tonight are playing in the same game.  As someone that lives in Baltimore I’ve been to enough games in Camden Yards to know that when the weather is hot the ball flies out of the yard, especially to left field. 

I’m starting with Mancini here because he gets a great match up vs. a pitcher that’s been struggling of late.  Over the last month Yarbrough has given up 4 homers in just 22 innings for work.  During that same stretch he has a 49% fly ball rate. A fly ball pitcher in Camden is not what you want to be. 

On the year Mancini has a .279 ISO and .386 wOBA vs. lefties.  What a comeback for him this year!  Yarbrough’s struggles come against righties.  On the year he’s given up a .198 ISO and .314 wOBA.  Mancini is going to get a heavy dose of cutters tonight’s.  He has a .735 slugging % and .442 wOBA against cutters this year and if we look back over his career, this is a trend.  Confidence Level – High! 

Randy Arozarena vs. John Means

Switching dugouts, I’m looking to Randy Arozarena for a long ball.  Arozarena is hot, with 3 straight multi-hit games.  I like to target batters in this contest that are swing a hot bat.  So we can check that box off right from the start. 

He also matches up very well with Means.  He has great numbers vs. Means and a lot of has to do with Means pitch mix.  Means will throw in a large amount of fastballs with some change ups mixed in.  Arozarena is a crusher of fastballs this year with a  .586 slugging %, a .415 wOBA, and 61% hard hit rate. 

Means has given up 4 homers in his 3 outings since returning from injury.  Look for number 5 to come off the bat from Arozarena.  Confidence Level – High

Joey Votto vs. JT Brubaker

Joey Votto is no longer hitting a home run every game, but he’s still swinging an extremely hot bat.  Since July 21 he has only 1 game without a hit and 10 homers. 

Tonight he gets to take on a pitcher in Brubaker who is giving up homers at a pretty quick pace with 5 in his last 18 innings of work.  Brubaker has been giving up a ton of hard contact with a 48% hard hit rate over the past month.  

While he doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls, 30% of the fly balls he does give up end up in a fan’s glove.  Just like Camden, when it’s warm in Great American Ballpark the ball has a little extra giddy up to it off the bat.  With it supposed to be in the mid 80’s at first pitch, the weather is primed for some long balls.  Confidence Level – Medium/High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Tonight I’m picking on both pitchers and hitting environment.  I’ve selected 3 guys facing pitchers that are prone to giving up homers, but also playing in ball parks that making home runs a little bit easier.  If you want to go a different route, Jesse Winker on the Reds also is in a good spot for the Reds.  In the Camden Yards game, I can also see Nelson Cruz or Ryan Mountcastle going yard.

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot.  Tonight’s jackpot is $5,000! 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Gavin Sheets vs. JC Mejia

Gavin Sheets isn’t someone that comes to mind when talking about White Sox power.  He actually has one of the highest ISO’s of anyone on the team this year vs. righties.  Tonight he gets a great match up vs. JC Mejia. 

Mejia has really struggled in the month of June.  In his last 4 starts he’s given up 7 homers.  Where we want to attack Mejia is with lefties.  His ISO this year vs. lefties is a whopping .302 vs. just .094 against righties. 

Mejia’s main pitch to lefties is his sinker which he throws about 45% of the time.  Sheets, albeit a very small sample size, has an .857 ISO against this pitch with an average distance of 373 feet.  If Mejia’s sinker isn’t on tonight, bombs away for Sheets.  Confidence Level – High.

Jorge Soler vs. Ross Stripling

When looking for homers, Stripling is one of the best pitchers to target.  Over his last 14 innings of work he’s given up 6 dongs.  His outing on Sunday was the first time in nearly 2 months where he hadn’t given up homer. 

The next 2 month streak of games with a homer starts tonight and the guy that I like the best to start it is Jorge Soler.  To start, Soler has been hot over the past week with 4 homers, a .482 wOBA, and a wRC + of 215. 

In looking at pitch mix he’s going to get a steady stream of low 90’s fastballs tonight with some sliders mixed in.  Soler has a career ISO of .471 with an average distance of 341 against this pitch.  Confidence Level – High

Joey Votto vs. Cookie Carrasco

At some point the law of averages will catch up with Votto.  I just don’t see it happening tonight.  Carrasco takes the mound for the first time in almost 2 years tonight after opting out last season and tearing his hamstring this season. 

If we go all the way back to the 2019 season we can see that lefties were his weakness. He gave up way more fly balls and hard contact to that side of the plate.  Votto is on an absolute heater and it won’t slow down tonight.  Confidence Level – Highish.

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Mejia and  Stripling are both giving up homers at an insane pace right now.  Guys like Moncada and Goodwin are also prime targets for homers on the Sox.  With Royals, I also like Salvador Perez and Carlos Santana.  

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer.  Within the game there are different tiers you can play.  .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double.  1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays 5x your entry fee.  2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 10x your entry fee.  With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Jose Abreu vs. Kris Bubic

Anytime that I see the White Sox face off against a lefty, using their bats automatically comes to mind. Tonight they get to take on a lefty who has been extremely hittable this year. On the year Bubic is has a 5.27 xFIP and a 39% hard hit rate.

While his FB rate isn’t the higest at 33.3%, he has shown a tendency to give up the long ball with 5 in his last 20 innings of work. With Abreu we have someone that smashes lefties as he has a .329 ISO against them this year with a .377 wOBA.

In looking at pitch mix, Abreu should see a healthy stream of fastballs and change ups tonight as they account for about 85% of the pitches that Bubic throws to righties. Over the last several years Abreu has a .362 ISO against change ups with an average distance greater than 300 feet. Confidence Level – High

Joe Votto vs. Zach Davies

Davies isn’t a guy that gives up a ton of homers. He’s only given up 3 in his last 23 innings of work. That said, Votto is on an absolute heater right now and the environment tonight should be prime for offense. Votto will see a mix of sinkers and change ups tonight.

Let’s zero in on the sinker as he’ll see that about 40% of the time. Over the last 5 years he has an ISO of .269 with a 54% hard hit rate against right handed sinkers. Look for Votto to make it 5 straight with homer. Confidence Level – High

Rowdy Tellez vs. Max Kranick

Kranick doesn’t have a whole lot of experience at the Major League level so far, but from what we’ve seen he has a lot of work to do before he can be considered a solid pitcher. In just 3 appearances so far he’s pitched to a 5.71 xFIP due to a 48% fly ball rate and a 40% hard hit rate.

The guy I’m going to attack him with is Rowdy Tellez. 1 – he has a great first name. 2 – he lines up pretty well with Kranick from a pitch mix stand point. He should see a mid 90’s fastball more than 50% of the time tonight.

Against this pitch he has a .234 ISO with an average distance of around 330 feet. Look for him to pull one over the right field fence tonight. Confidence Level – Medium

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

All three of the guys I’m picking on tonight have the ability to really get hammered tonight. Bubic is facing one of the best lineups in baseball against lefties and Davies is facing a Reds team that hits for a lot of power.

Good luck and hope to find some homers with you!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Blast.  For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer.  Within the game there are different tiers you can play.  .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double.  1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays 5x your entry fee.  2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 10x your entry fee.  With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Salvador Perez vs. Dallas Keuchel

No pitcher on tonight’s slate is giving up homers over the past 30 days at a quicker pace than Dallas Keuchel.  In his last 21 innings of work he’s given up 5.  For a pitcher that’s always been considered a ground ball pitcher, that’s bad. 

The guy on the Royals that matches up the best for a homer tonight is Salvador Perez.  Keuchel’s main pitches tonight will be his sinker which he throws about 36% of the time and his changeup at about 31% of the time. 

His sinker has been getting crushed this year with a .508 slugging % and a near 47% hard hit rate.  Perez has a .456 slugging % and a near 48% hard hit rate vs. the pitch this year.  Look for Perez to take Keuchel deep tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Vladimir Guerrero vs. Nick Pivetta

Nick Pivetta is another pitcher that gives up homers at a pretty fast pace.  In his last 22 innings of work he’s given up 5 homers.  During the same stretch he’s given up a way too high fly ball rate of 42%.  Against a powerful lineup like the Blue Jays giving up that many fly balls is a recipe for disaster. 

PIvetta throws a ton of fastballs.  More than 50% of the time.  No batter in baseball has been better at hitting the fastball than Guerrero this year. 

Against the pitch he has an insane .842 slugging % and a 63% hard hit rate.  If Pivetta leaves one of his fastballs over the plate tonight to Guerrero, it has no chance of staying in the park.  Confidence Level – Extremely High

George Springer vs. Nick Pivetta

I’m not straying too far from Guerrero as I also think his teammate George Springer takes Pivetta deep.  Like Guerrero, Springer has great numbers against fastballs this season.  He has an .806 slugging %, a .482 wOBA, and a 48% hard hit rate. 

While not quite as good as Guererro, Springer is no slouch against the fastball and I really like his chances of leading off the game tonight with a homer.  Confidence Level – High

Jose Abreu vs. Mike Minor

The White Sox should put up a big number tonight.  Minor over the last 30 days has an xFIP of 5.53.  He’s been getting hit hard and giving up a ton of fly balls.  His hard hit rate over that period is 35% and his fly ball rate is 38.2%.  Giving up that many fly balls that are hit that hard means there’s a much higher chance of giving up a homer. 

The guy on the White Sox that takes Minor deep will be Jose Abreu.  From a pitch mix stand point he lines up great as he has great numbers vs. 4 seamers and sliders this year.  His slugging % is greater than .500 to both pitches.  Confidence Level – Highish 

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

The three guys I’m picking on tonight have been very susceptible to the long ball or are giving up a ton of barrels.  And with barrels often times we see homers too.  Look for a ton of offense in Boston tonight with Blue Jays taking Pivetta deep multiple times.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get share of the jackpot.  Tonight’s jackpot is $5,000. 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Pete Alonso vs. Steven Matz

Steven Matz makes his return to Citi Field tonight after being traded over the winter.  My guess is it’s a short outing for Mr. Matz as the match-up tonight is not an easy one.  Matz is someone that has been very home run prone this season.  He only has a handful of starts where he hasn’t given one up. 

I’m going to be attacking Matz tonight in both my DFS lineups and my Home Run Blast contests with right handed bats.  He gives up way more fly balls to righties and significantly more hard contact. 

The guy I’m going to do it with is the Polar Bear himself, Pete Alonso.  If we look at pitch mix Matz is going to throw his sinker more than 45% of the time.

This is a pitch that Alonso has historically excelled against.  In his brief career he has a .833 ISO with an average distance of 353 feet.  Bombs away for Alonso tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Eric Haase vs. Kris Bubic

Bubic is slowly becoming one of my favorite pitchers to pick on.  Bubic has been giving up a ton of power this year with high ISO’s to both sides of the plate.  I’m going to side with a power righty from the Tigers though and that guy is Eric Haase. 

For the first time in his brief career Haase has become a full time player.  On the year he’s already crushed 15 homers.  I’m picking him tonight due to his numbers against lefties this year.  He has an insane .500 ISO in 60 plate appearances with a .498 wOBA. 

Diving into pitch data he’s going to see a steady stream of low 90’s fastballs tonight.  It’s a pitch he tees off when it comes from lefties.  He has a .500 ISO against it with an average distance of 317 feet.  Confidence Level – Highish

Justin Upton vs. J.A. Happ

Happ is one of my favorite targets when it comes to opposing hitters.  When I target him, I almost always do with batters from the right hand side.  This year he’s given up a 44% fly ball rate and a 42% hard hit rate against righties.  This has added to him giving up a .274 ISO and a .379 wOBA to guys from the right side of the plate. 

I’m targeting him tonight with a guy who has a long history against south paws.  Over the last several seasons Upton has a .269 ISO against lefties.  He’s someone that hits for a ton of power against them.  He should have no problem with the low 90’s fastball coming from Happ.  Confidence Level – Medium/High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

The three guys I’m picking on tonight are some of favorite targets when playing fantasy and are guys that give up homers often.  While I’m picking Alonso against Matz, I also think that JD Davis and James McCann are also primed for big nights.

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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