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Mike Minor

Here we are, it’s Labor Day. While most of you were still sleeping, I was sitting here spinning records, and poring over the 9/2 MLB DFS Pitching Picks. One of the things I love about having a Monday holiday is a bevy of MLB games to watch.

On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate we are starting a new format, besides giving you my top pitching picks to play, I will also be giving you some top pitching picks to attack. This all part of our continuing effort to bring you the highest quality analysis in the industry. Speaking of quality analysis, if you did not already know we now have a show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio on Saturday nights from 11 pm to 1 am EST. Make sure you tune in. So, without further delay, I bring you today’s top plays.

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On theDefense

JakeOdorizzi vs. Detroit Tigers

$9,700 FD / $10,500 DK

The Detroit Tigers are a prime team to attack on any given day, and this 9/2 MLB DFS slate is no different. They are striking out 27.3 percent of the time (1st in MLB) with a .292 wOBA versus RHPs this season. Meanwhile, Odorizzi has been steady mobbin’ to the tune of RHBs, hitting a whopping .187 off him this season. With the Tigers being extremely right-handed heavy, Jake not from State Farm should dominant this Little League lineup today.

NoahSyndergaard vs Washington Nationals

$9,000 FD / $10,000 DK

In GPP play on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, even facing a teamthat mashes RHPs like the Nationals, I would seriously consider using Thor. Eventhough the Nats have ugly numbers versus opposing pitchers this season, they donot versus Syndergaard. Over three starts versus Washington this season Thorhas 18 strikeouts over 21 innings with eight earned runs, four of them comingin his first start back in late March. With Syndergaard having a road ERA of 3.49versus his 4.73 ERA at home, everything appears to be a go for him today.

MasahiroTanaka vs. Texas Rangers

$8,000 FD / $8,100 DK

Tanaka, much like Julio Teheran of years past, is much more dominant at home. So far this season he is posting a 3.26 home ERA as opposed to his 5.93 ERA on the road. The Rangers are striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low wRC+ of 86, while batting a pathetic .202 over the last seven. Despite Masahiro’s ups and downs as of late, in his last start facing Seattle he sent seven to the dugout mad while pitching a seven-inning shutout. On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate Tanaka is one of my favorite plays for the price.

Joe Rossvs. New York Mets

$6.800 FD / $6,600 DK

For the record on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate I prefer this play a lot more on DK over FD. Although the price is still nice on FD, I think the value is better served in the SP2 slot on DK. The Mets can be very dangerous to attack in MLB DFS versus RHPs, they are in the middle of the pack striking out 20 percent of the time with a .319 wOBA. But Ross has looked too good as of late to pass up here. Over his last five starts spanning a little more than 25 innings, he has only allowed three earned runs while striking out 16 batters. My biggest concern is innings here, as he does have a few starts in that span where he failed to reach the five-inning mark.

On theAttack

Drew Smylyvs. Cincinnati Reds

For fantasy owners Drew Smyly has done anything but make you smile. Over his last five starts he has allowed 20 earned runs over his last 26 innings, making the Reds a prime stack on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate. Cincinnati has some powerful RHBs, and is posting a .328 wOBA versus LHPs, Smyly is in serious trouble today in the Great American Small Park.

Notable Bats

Aristides Aquino has a .578 wOBA and 261 wRC+ versusLHPs with four straight games without a HR.

Phillip Ervin has .488 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPswhile batting .333 with two home runs over the last seven days. He also hasfound his way into the three spot.

Eugenio Suarez has .423 wOBA and 160 wRC+ versus LHPs and has seven home runs over his last nine games. He did leave yesterday’s second game of the doubleheader with a hand injury so keep your eyes peeled here.

JordanZimmerman vs. Minnesota Twins

The McRib, Roller skates, and Sandy Koufax are three thingsthat all had to come to an end. Much like Jordan Zimmerman’s good starts as oflate. Although he has three starts in a row allowing two earned runs or less,the last time he faced Minnesota they bombed him for five runs over threeinnings sending the Zim home in dismay. I see serious regression here today andwill stack against this geriatric pitcher on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate facing a Twinsteam posting a .345 wOBA versus RHPs.

Notable Bats

Nelson Cruz is crushing everyone and RHPs are notdifferent. He is posting .411 wOBA and wRC+ of 158 versus RHPs this season.

Mitch Garver currently has a .396 wOBA versus RHPs with a wRC+ of 147. Over the last seven days he is also batting .455 with three home runs.

Luis Arraez, if he gets the start today, which I believe he will, has a .374 wOBA versus RHPs with a complimentary 133 wRC+.  With bigger bats, and $4,000 price tag on DK, you can get him at a low ownership today for sure.

Mike Minorvs. New York Yankees

The New York Yankees hit home runs like I eat Beyond Burgers, pretty much every day. I know this, does Mike Minor? If not, he will soon enough. The Yankees are crushing lefties to the tune of .360 wOBA this season with a wRC+ of 121, both which are 4th in MLB. The magic number is 55, remember that number on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, it is how many dingers the Yanks have launched this season versus lefties. With Minor allowing 10 earned runs in his last 12 1/3 innings, I suspect the number will be much higher tomorrow. Keep in mind that Minor has reverse splits, so do not be afraid to go lefty on lefty here in GPPs.

Notable Bats

D.J. LeMahieu is posting .476 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPs this season. Despite the horrible BVP versus Minor I would still rank him at the top batting .400 with two home runs over the last seven days.

Aaron Judge has returned to pass judgement with his .470 wOBA versus LHPs. He is batting .375 with three home runs over the last seven days and I fully see him putting one out today.

Luke Voit has posted a .354 wOBA this season along with a wRC+ of 120 versus LHPs. I like the pricing for him on both sites today and will have a lot of exposure to him. If Mike Ford somehow draws the start, that will certainly be my pivot.

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

With the Tigers striking out 27.2 percent of the time versus RHPs, and Odorizzi striking out six batters or more in four out of his last five starts the over here seems to easy.

Zimmerman more-than-likely will not see enough innings after the Twins bats get a hold of him today, so the under here is where I am looking.


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8/21 DFS Pitching Picks

Hump Day offers a smattering of daytime baseball but the best cash plays for our 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks come out at night. With the usual 15-game slate, expect solid choices for all formats.

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8/21 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers 

Justin Verlander, HOU vs. DET

DK ($12,400)   FD ($12,500) 

It begins and ends with Verlander for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks when it comes to best cash game options. Yes, it’s going to cost you, but Verlander has put up at least 30 FanDuel points in all but two starts dating back to April 8. He’s been freaking Lights Out over his last six starts, recording at least 10 Ks in each, putting within the outer edge of his first 300-K season. Barring the unforeseen, Verlander will push the streak to seven at the expense of a Tigers team that is third only to the Mariners and Rangers in batter’s strikeouts (1,219). You don’t need a lot of fancy next gen numbers with this pick: Ante up and watch the K’s come.

Charlie Morton, TB vs. SEA

DK ($11,100)   FD ($11,600) 

Easily the best play among the daytime starters, Morton has helped deliver the long green in his past three starts, having produced FanDuel totals of 46, 42 and 55 points. He’s pitching at home in the Trop, where opponents have managed a .197 batting average and where Morton has a K:BB rate of 105:16 over 75.2 innings at home. Expensive? Yes, but if you’re playing an afternoon slate, there’s no other pitcher that comes close to giving you what Morton can provide.

This should be a dual act of Morton either fanning batters at will (remember, the Mariners lead the majors with 1,237 Ks from their hitters) or watching his 48.7% ground ball rate improve a tick or two. Seattle’s lineup doesn’t look like the Triple-A offense the Tigers will have in Houston tonight, but it’s one that is essentially playing for their fans at 10:10am.

Walker Buehler, LAD vs. TOR

DK ($11,400)   FD ($11,000) 

Like Verlander, Buehler finds himself in an ideal scenario: at home against a free-swinging team that’s allergic to walks. Slightly less expensive than V-Squared, Buehler also has lacked Verlander’s consistency, having pitched a combined 10 innings in his last two starts, but I love the FanDuel projection (41.70 points) for him tonight. Buehler has a sick, sick, sick K:BB rate of 10.57:1.66. That number is more perverse when looking at his K:BB rate when pitching at Dodger Stadium, as Buehler sports a 94:7 rate in 73.1 innings tossed at home. To paraphrase a line of the song “Walking in LA” by the 1980s new wave group Missing Persons, nobody walks in LA, especially when Buehler is on the mound.

Toronto is 23rd in batter’s strikeouts, but for all the future talent brimming in their lineup, the Blue Jays are 28th in the majors with a .304 OBP. Do not count on that number improving after Wednesday night. In short, Buehler is money well spent for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks.

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8/21 DFS Pitching GPP Picks 

Mike Minor, TEX vs. LAA

DK ($10,400)   FD ($9,300) 

He’s matched up well against the Angels, having gone 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts against them. Minor put up 58 FanDuel points against them on April 16 and followed that with a solid 34 FDP in a May 25 start before a 16 FDP clunker versus Team Trout on July 2. His ability to reduce his fly ball rate (40%) is a key element behind his underrated performance this season and is also a welcomed fact considering how the ball can fly in Arlington on a hot August night.

Minor also brings a 12:7% HR:BB rate to the party and does come into this start with a lot of DFS momentum, recording 52 and 67 FanDuel points in his last two starts. The Angels managed just 13 hits in a double-header split on Tuesday, and I don’t suspect their bats will come alive against Minor.

Mike Fiers, OAK vs. NYY

DK ($9,600)   FD ($7,700) 

This sets to be a trap game for those who like to stack Yankees batters. Fiers is Cy Young-caliber at Oakland Coliseum, where he has a 7-2 record with a 2.89 ERA while allowing hitters to get him at a .215 clip. He’s a bit pricey at DraftKings and does come off his worst DFS scoring performance since May 1, managing just 18 FanDuel points against the Tigers (!!!). However, he has delivered at least 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts at home. If there is any concern regarding Fiers, it’s the 5.99 K/9 rate he brings to the table.

That’s a tad unnerving, especially considering the level of lumber the Yanks will have in the lineup, but since Fiers is at home, you have to give him the edge and simply trust he can keep his infielders busy while hoping his 39.5% fly ball rate doesn’t take a sharp turn.

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8/21 DFS Pitching Punt Pick 

Joe Musgrove, PIT vs. WAS

DK ($5,900)   FD ($7,200) 

Musgrove is a roller coaster, but what fun he can be when he’s on. He comes off a solid outing against the Cubs that resulted in 47 FanDuel points, continuing a season-long trend that has seen him either blow up DFS lineups or become an unsung hero to those crazy enough to run with him. Musgrove has allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts and is also on a 10-start stretch that has seen him walk two or fewer batters eight times.

The Nats’ offensive onslaught was slowed on Tuesday night, and if you’re a believer that it’s a sign of regression from Washington, boy, do I have a sleeper play for you.

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Unlike Saturday’s slate, the Sunday 8/11 DFS pitching schedule brings good tidings for those who seeking top end pitchers. All three formats are well-stocked with options, including a sleeper or two that has a chance to deliver surprise numbers.

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8/11 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers 

Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. WSH

DK ($11,600)   FD ($11,700) 

deGrom has fattened the wallets of many over his last 15 starts, scoring at least 40 FanDuel points 11 times, with his 49 point effort in his previous start against the Marlins leaving him a point shy of four straight starts with at least 50 points. Obviously, starting deGrom as your SP1 will impact the coin you’ll spend on offense, but when you’re getting 11.45 K/9 with just 2.2 BB/9 while keeping the ball in the yard, you’ll spend it and do so smiling. deGrom sets the pace by hitting first pitch strikes at 66.5% and is still putting up good numbers despite not maintaining the off-the-charts pace he had in 2018.

Most pitchers will take a 4.9 WAR a this point of the season, but that — along with a RAR of 43.3 — is what deGrom carries into this contest. He’s more dominant at home in Citi Field, where deGrom has struck out 84 batters over 68 innings at home with a 3.18 ERA. He’s more unforgiving to the Nationals, holding them to an 0.75 ERA while putting together an 18:4 K/BB rate and a composite .167 allowed against them.

Justin Verlander, HOU at BAL

DK ($12,400)   FD ($12,500) 

Most will consider deGrom the better play, but you can’t fault anyone plugging Verlander as their SP1. JV has four straight starts of at least 58 FanDuel points and faces a Baltimore lineup bereft of quality in its lineup, a huge reason they are 24th in OPS and 25th in wRAA. He’s pushing for a second straight season of striking out at least 35% of opponents, and he’s still a legit Cy Young award candidate despite a rise in hard contact rate (40.8%) and an elevated HR/9 rate (1.68).

deGrom gets the edge because of his track record against the Nationals, but Verlander has won seven of his last eight starts and is on a four-start stretch of at least 10 strikeouts. I think you’ll get another 10-K from Verlander and another win that would give him a sixth straight win.

8/11 DFS GPP Plays

Mike Minor, TEX at MIL

DK ($9,600)   FD ($9,200) 

Minor hit some major turbulence in mid-July but has won his last two starts, including seven shutout innings against the Indians on Monday. One could say that Minor is having a career year, as his 31.3 RAR has already eclipsed the 29.6 RAR he recorded as a member of the Braves in 2012. He’s been inconsistent when it comes to FanDuel reduction, as his 28.95 FD points were his best output since scoring 34.55 FD against the Tigers on June 26.

The Brewers are hitting a combined .252/.312/.403 this month and are paying dearly for their all or nothing at all mindset, striking out 85 times in eight games. There is good potential for Minor to be able to exploit Milwaukee’s loss of Christian Yelich, who remains sidelined with back woes.

Lucas Giolito, CWS vs. OAK

DK ($10,600)   FD ($9.800)

Giolito has at least 43 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts and has shaken off the 9 points he produced at FD against the Cubs on July 6. He’s approaching 11 strikeouts per nine innings (10.86 K/9 to date). Giolito has continued to keep opposing batters from making max impact against him (30.9% hard contact rate) and has avoided the long ball despite a 41.1% fly ball rate.

This shapes to a good matchup for Giolito, as the Athletics have seen their bats go .233/.340/.454 over the past week. Oakland’s longball or bust mentality will work agains them considering Giolito allows opposing bats to hit just .203 against him at home this season while he’s delivered 70 strikeouts over 59.1 innings. What keeps Giolito from being a cash pitcher is the uncertainty that the A’s bats get dialed in early and catch Giolito off-balance.

8/11 DFS Punt Plays

Jakob Junis, KC at DET

DK ($7,900)   FD ($8,600) 

Junis comes off a 37 FanDuel point outing against the Red Sox and already has starts of 37 and 34 points against the Tigers this season. There is sneaky good strikeout potential in Junis, who averages 8.46 K/9 to go along with a slightly above league average 3.12 BB/9. The Tigers’ lineup won’t be able to fully exploit Junis’ weakness (his 1.56 HR/9 rate), this despite the fact the Royals hurler sports a 42.4% hard contact rate.

There’s a chance the Tigers might get one off him, but I think Junis is capable of setting the pace early with strikeouts before getting the Detroit bats to induce ground balls as a steady clip. This is a good pairing if you’re looking to go with deGrom or Verlander in a cash league or even Giolito in a PPS format.

Monkey Knife Fight Pitching Props

For my debut in MKF, I’ll go Astros-Orioles and take the shot on Asher Wojciehowski lasting long enough to get the over on strikeouts before Houston’s lineup sends him to an early exit.

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With an eight game main slate on FanDuel we have high, mid, and low end options for 7/31 MLB DFS Pitching.  One stands out above the rest but we have cheaper options and potential pivots.  These are my favorites.

7/31 MLB DFS Pitching Top overall arm – Jacob deGrom ($12,000 FD).  deGrom has the highest floor on the board tonight since he gets a nice matchup with the White Sox.  Chicago strikes out 23.3% of the time against right handed pitching and has a basement ISO of 0.153.  deGrom’s strikeout rate of 31.2% is the highest on the slate.  He is the number one pitching option on the schedule.  However, his $12K price tag takes him out of “must play” status.

7/31 MLB DFS Pitching Tournament Pivot 1 – Mike Minor ($9,500 FD).  Minor gets Seattle tonight and a lineup that strikes out 30.8% of the time against lefties!  And he’s $2.500 less than deGrom on FanDuel.  There is some risk in a great hitter’s park, with great hitting weather, and a lineup that does have some power.  However, I’m more than okay giving up a few home runs for the high strikeout ceiling.  He’s my number one points per dollar play of the night.

7/31 MLB DFS Pitching Tournament Pivot 2 – Jose Berrios ($10,400 FD).  Berrios gets the Miami Marlins tonight in a nice pitcher’s park.  Miami’s lineup has the lowest ISO on the board at 0.139 and has a 22.9% strikeout rate.  His matchup gets even better since he will likely see seven righties and no DH.  He has one of the highest floors on the slate with plenty of strikeout upside.

7/31 MLB DFS Pitching Salary Saver – Jordan Lyles ($6,400 FD).  Lyles has an above average strikeout rate at 24.9% and he gets a fresh start with Milwaukee tonight.  Oakland at home is not the ideal matchup due to their decent power numbers, but the park does favor pitchers.  He should see six righties tonight which he strikes out at a 26.1% clip.  Again, I’m okay with giving up a few home runs if the strikeout upside is there.  Which it is for Lyles tonight.

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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s eight game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

MLB Stack: Houston Astros

vs. RHP Zach Plesac (CLE): 5.30 Runs

**Low Risk

Zach Plesac is on the mound in Cleveland this evening and he has had a pretty good rookie campaign thus far. He sports a 3.10 ERA, 5.14 FIP, and 5.21 SIERA. Through expected regression his 3.10 ERA will come closer to his FIP and SIERA. Plesac also has tremendous splits, only allowing righties to slash to a .304 wOBA, .425 SLG, and .293 OBP. Despite the great averages put forth by Plesac he still only has a K rate of 18.1%, one of the lowest on today’s slate. Houston is the second best team in the league in regards to striking out, averaging only 7.23 per game. The Astros are red hot vs. right hand pitching right now, slashing to a .374 wOBA, .264 ISO, and 140 WRC+.

Preferred Stack: George Springer ($4500 FD|$5600 DK), Alex Bregman ($3800 FD|$5200 DK), Yordan Alvarez($4000 FD|$5500 DK), Jose Altuve ($4200 FD|$5100 DK), and Michael Brantley ($4100 FD|$5100 DK).

MLB Stack: Texas Rangers

vs. LHP Wade LeBlanc (PLR) (SEA): (Update)

**Moderate Risk

Thankfully the Coors game falls on the early slate so we don’t have to worry about that. We do get Coors south in Texas, which has quickly become one of the more prolific hitting parks in MLB this season. There’s no doubt this Rangers lineup is just not the same without Joey Gallo in it. The Rangers are slashing to a lowly .288 wOBA, .170 ISO, and 70 WRC+ for the month of July. Despite these poor hitting averages they get to face Wade LeBlanc at home. LeBlanc owns a 4.79 ERA, 5.17 FIP, and 4.69 SIERA. He is allowing 1.85 HR/9 and holds a terrible K rate of 17.6%. LeBlanc gave up three earned runs and struck out five over five innings pitched the last time he faced the Rangers at home.

Preferred Stack: Danny Santana ($3600 FD|$5300 DK), Elvis Andrus ($3000 FD|$4300 DK), Shin-soo Choo ($3200 FD|$4800 DK), and Hunter Pence ($3500 FD|$4700 DK). Roughned Odor ($2800 FD|$4400 DK).

Honorable Mention

MLB Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. LHP Ryan Yarbrough (TAM): 7.00 Runs

**Low Risk

Preferred Plays: J.D. Martinez ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4200 FD|$5100 DK), Rafael Devers ($4300 FD|$5300 DK), and Christian Vazquez ($2600 FD|$3900 DK).

MLB Stack: Philadelphia Phillies

vs.RHP Jeff Samardzija (SFG): 5.35 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Bryce Harper ($4200 FD|$4300 DK), Rhys Hoskins ($4000 FD|$4200 DK), Cesar Hernandez ($2700 FD|$3400 DK) and Adam Haseley ($2300 FD|$3400 DK).


  1. Jose Berrios RHP (MIN): 3.30 Runs
  2. Mike Minor LHP (TEX): UPDATE
  3. Jacob deGrom RHP (NYM): 3.50 Runs

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Scott Engel and Mark Paquette get into the full MLB schedule on the 7/1 MLB DFS Podcast. They break down the Monday slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Making pitching decisions will not be easy as there are only 10 hurlers to pick from on a short slate and most of them are not appealing.

7/1 MLB DFS Podcast Pitching Notes

The big question is whether to spend up for Mike Minor on a five-game main slate. No other pitcher really provides confidence that he will deliver a quality performance. Logan Allen is the top alternative so far, but we have only seen two starts from him with differing results.

MLB DFS Podcast Hitting Notes

The Padres may be the best stack of the night, as many of their bats have been hot lately and they should provide good offense against Jeff Samardzija. The Brewers-Reds matchup should also provide a lot of offense and you can build stacks from both lineups.

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Mike Minor is the top DFS pitcher on a schedule with a dearth of pitching options on a light DFS slate. On a Monday the schedule is generally light, but today it is especially so, as there are only six games and only five at night.

DFS Upper-Tier Option

Mike Minor, Angels at Rangers ($10,800 FD, $10,500 DK): On a normal DFS pitcher day/night, I may not even write up Minor, but today I have no choice. Do not get me wrong, Minor has been very good this year but going up against Mike Trout, Justin Upton and the red-hot Shohei Ohtaini in a park that is great for hitters does not sound like my idea of a great DFS pitcher choice. However, Minor is the top arm on the DFS slate and his effectiveness can not be ignored. Minor is looking to extend a three-game winning streak to four as the calendar turns to July. The lefty’s last start in June was terrific, a complete game victory against the Tigers on Wednesday, allowing just one run on five hits and two walks with seven strikeouts. A repeat performance would likely break the slate tonight though it will be a tough encore. He is a GPP-only option for me as I want to spend up on bats tonight.

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DFS Middle-Tier Arm

Logan Allen, Giants at Padres ($9,300 FD, $9,200 DK): Again, another DFS pitcher call I do not love and probably one I would not have used if it was not a six (or five if you play the main) game DFS slate. That being said, there is no denying that this rookie southpaw has been good at the Major League level. Allen twirled seven scoreless frames in his debut, but his second start did not go as well. However, it may have shown more about who he is as a pitcher, as he gutted through an up-and-down outing in Baltimore last week without his best stuff. His third start is his first against a divisional opponent. Logan Allen is likely only a GPP-choice for me this evening.

DFS Bargain-Basement Arm

Ryan Yarbrough, Orioles at Rays ($6,600 FD, $6,500 DK): For DFS pitcher purposes I have not fully embraced the opener/primary pitcher philosophy. Yarbrough will never qualify for the 4-point FD quality start bonus if he doesn’t start! However, tonight I may have no other true choice in DFS cash games. Borrowing a graphic from our Umpire Expert Nicholas Robert, he has been really good against Baltimore:

As long as we are sure Yarbrough will pitch tonight, he looks relatively safe at that price.


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Our DFS slate had a full 15 games once again on Wednesday, June 26th. It was a good day for most of the high priced pitchers and some other batters put up big games as well. Points and salaries are based on DraftKings.

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DFS Winners

Trevor Bauer ($10,600)

Trevor Bauer and the Indians beat the Kansas City Royals at home Wednesday 5-3. Bauer pitched 6.2 innings and gave up one earned run on only three hits and one walk. He racked up 12 strikeouts while throwing 127 pitches. Bauer scored 37.4 DFS points. This was a good bounce-back performance as Bauer gave up five earned runs on 10 hits over four innings in his last start. Bauer’s ERA is now at 3.55 and his WHIP is at 1.14. This is now three out of his four starts that have been stellar.

Bauer’s Outlook

Bauer’s next projected start will come against the same Kansas City Royals, this time on the road on July 3rd. Bauer dismantled the Royals offense Wednesday and he should have similar DFS success in this start. The Royals offense has been bad this year and has not been any better lately. In June, the Royals rank 25th in runs scored and average 3.91 runs per game. They are also tied for 10th in strikeouts. He should be counted on again vs. the Royals in DFS.

Mike Minor ($11,000)

Mike Minor of the Texas Rangers threw a complete game gem on Wednesday. He pitched all nine innings while giving up only one earned run on five hits and two walks. Minor struck out seven and gave up one home run. He scored 34.55 fantasy points in DraftKings DFS. Minor’s ERA is now at a sparkling 2.40 and his WHIP is at 1.12. His K/9 sits at a pretty good 8.79.

Minor’s Outlook

Minor’s next projected start will come on Monday, July 1st at home against the Angels. The Angels have avoided the strikeout all year and this trend has not changed lately. In June, the Angels rank 26th in strikeouts and have struck out only 7.26 times per game. They have also scored well this month and average 5.43 runs per game, ranking in the Top 10. Minor has been good lately but this doesn’t look like a high upside matchup. At Minor’s price, I will be looking elsewhere for more DFS value.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($4,500)

Gurriel Jr. and the Blue Jays visited the Yankees and lost in a close game 8-7. Gurriel Jr. did all he could to get them the win, going 3-for-5 while hitting two home runs and a double. He finished with two runs scored and four RBI for 37 fantasy points. Gurriel Jr.’s batting average is now at .304 and his OPS is at .965. He has hit 12 home runs and has 30 RBI. He has been on a DFS tear his last few games and has 12 hits over his last five games.

Gurriel Jr.’s Outlook

The Blue Jays now head back home for a four game series against the Kansas City Royals. Kansas City’s pitching has been pretty good lately and ranks 12th in team ERA in the month of June. They have allowed an opposing batting average .258 in June, ranking at 16th in the league. Gurriel Jr. has been one of the hotter hitters in baseball the last week and there isn’t a pitcher in the Royal’s rotation that should scare anyone too much. Fire him up in this series as an affordable DFS player.

DFS Losers

James Paxton ($9,000)

Paxton and the Yankees beat the before mentioned Blue Jays 8-7 but it was not because of Paxton’s pitching performance. Paxton was only able to pitch 4.1 innings and gave up six earned runs on eight hits. He also walked four and gave up three home runs. He earned three strikeouts over his 91 pitches. Paxton’s ERA is now at 4.34 and his WHIP is at at 1.43. Paxton has 81 strikeouts over 64.1 innings which puts his K/9 at 11.34.

Paxton’s Outlook

Paxton’s next projected start will come on Tuesday, July 2nd on the road agaisnt the New York Mets. The Mets offense has been pretty good lately and averages 5.17 runs per game in June. They have done well at putting balls in play and strike out only 7.87 times per game. Paxton has not gotten through more than six innings since mid April and I don’t see that changing here. He does have decent strikeout upside for DFS but if he can’t work deep into games, it is limited.

Nolan Arenado ($4,900)

Arenado and the Rockies visited the San Francisco Giants Wednesday and got the win 6-3. Arenado wasn’t any help offensively in this one as he went 0-for-4 and struck out once. He has played really well this year and has even played good away from Coors Field. Arendao has a home/away batting average split of .370/.280. He has actually hit more home runs on the road as 11 of his 19 have come away from home. His overall numbers are great and his batting average is at .321 and his OPS is at .964.

Arenado’s Outlook

The Colorado Rockies head back home for a four game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers pitching staff has been really good in June and leads the majors in team ERA at 2.27. This should keep Arenado a little less owned than normal, when he plays at Coors Field. He will always be a top DFS third baseman when he plays at home and I do not think that changes in this tougher matchup.

Injury Report

Eddie Rosario sprained his ankle Wednesday and is considered day-to-day.

Giancarlo Stanton has been placed on the 10-day IL with a PCL sprain.

Thank you for reading. You can join the Win Daily team by following the link hereThis will give you access to all of the FREE content along with options to join our premium. Follow myself and Win Daily on Twitter at @thiel_boy and @windailydfs.

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On the early slate, Chris Sale is certainly worth the $11,600 on DraftKings, and he could get his first home win this season against his former team. Sale did have a bumpy start his last time out, but he should rebound today. But you can save $1000 by going with Trevor Bauer at home against the Royals. Some DFS players may be skeptical a bit after he was hit hard by the Tigers his last time out. Bauer is definitely better on the road, but you have to like the opponent here. Bauer also pitches better in day games (1.82 ERA). Kansas City is 25th in team batting this month and on the road overall.

If you choose to play on the all day DFS slate, our CEO and DFS Pro Jason Mezrahi likes German Marquez at San Francisco for 10,000 on DK. Marquez is coming off a very strong outing against the Dodgers and he registered his first career shutout at Oracle Park earlier this season. He should also get quality run support from the Colorado lineup against Jeff Samardzija.

In one of the best matchups of the night, Mike Minor (11,000)opposes Matt Boyd (10,000). Both pitchers are worth strong DFS GPP consideration,but only one can win here and it could be a low-scoring duel that eliminatesboth as cash game plays. Boyd, however, is coming off two bumpy starts, so youcan lean to Minor here in tournaments, especially since he faces the weakerlineup.

Patrick Corbin is a top play at 10,600 at Miami in a pitcher’spark against one the most vulnerable lineups in MLB. He is the preferred DFScash game play on the night slate. Last time Corbin faced Miami in May, hedelivered a complete game shutout. Miami hitters who have faced him previouslyhave a composite .195 batting average against Corbin.

I have a strong gut feeling about Framber Valdez at a DFSprice of just 6900 at home against Pittsburgh. My gut is quite prominent, so Imay want to listen to it. I look like a lowercase letter b from the side view. Valdezhad two solid outings as a starter before getting hit hard at Yankee Stadiumlast week. He had 15 strikeouts and three earned runs in two previous startsagainst Toronto and Baltimore. I am going to use him as my second DK pitcher inDFS GPP play.

In the featured pitching matchup of the night, CharlieMorton (10,200) opposes Jake Odorizzi (9,500). I am not spending up for Morton againstthat Minnesota lineup. Odorizzi’s price is down after a pair of four-runoutings against Kansas City. That makes him a GPP DFS Play against Tampa Bay,21st in team batting in June and is fifth in Ks this month. On thenight slate I would go with Odorizzi or Minor as my DFS GPP play along with Valdezas my SP2.

Monkey Knife Fight Play of the Night

I am going big on the Pittsburgh-Houston Over/Under tonight for 19x my buy-in. Framber Valdez will easily go over 4.5 Ks. Josh Bell is hitting .176 over the last week and is better vs. RHPs, so I will take the under on 1.5 Runs plus RBI. Starling Marte is hitting .167 over the past week and .238 vs. lefties, so I will take the under on 1.5 total bases. Dario Agrazi, who is making his second start after posting a 3,87 ERA in the minors, should be a good target for the Houston hitters. The Pittsburgh bullpen is also ranked 27th. So over for me on 1.5 Hits plus Walks on Jose Altuve and 1.5 Total Bases for Alex Bregman, who starts to get back on track tonight. Our Joel Bartilotta has more on Bregman here. Follow my gut with Valdez here tonight and get 100 percent bonus!

Monkey Knife Fight
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It’s a top-heavy slate with a pair of aces toeing the bump. Weather will have to be watched in the Northeast with some rain expected.

Top-Tier Arms

Chris Sale, Rangers at Red Sox ($11,800 FD, $10,900 DK): That price on DK seems a bit low. Sale is coming off arguably his best start of the season, a complete-game shutout against the Royals, in which he walked none and struck out 12. Amazingly, he has not won at Fenway Park this season. In his career, he is 7-2 with a 2.82 ERA against the Rangers. On the season, Texas strikes out the fourth most frequently against lefties at 26.4%. You have to like the chances of Sale getting to 10 strikeouts, though an almost guaranteed two strikeouts are taken out of the lineup with Joey Gallo not playing. Of course you can look at it the other way as well, Gallo is a big bat that could hurt Sale.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dodgers at Angels ($10,700 FD, $10,400 DK): The Dodgers have a “road” game in Anaheim against the Angels. Ryu continues his All-Star and Cy Young candidacy campaigns when he gets the ball for the first game of a two-game interleague series. He’s made only three career starts against the Angels, but is 2-0 with an 0.83 ERA. On the season, Ryu is 9-1 with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. Don’t look for a high strikeout outing from Ryu, as the Angels are the hardest team to K against lefties at only 15.3%. This last stat makes him a GPP-only option for me.

Middle-Tier Arms

Mike Minor, Rangers at Red Sox ($9,200 FD, $9,400 DK): The old theory is that Fenway is a place that lefties want nothing to do with, but several good lefties have called it home the past few decades (starting with Bruce Hurst, go to Jon Lester, Now Chris Sale and David Price) and learned how to pitch there. Mike Minor may be the classic example of the crafty lefty getting better as he gets older. Minor is 3-2 with a 2.08 ERA in his last eight starts and 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA in six starts on the road in 2019. In two starts against the World Series champs last season, he was 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA. This season, the Red Sox’s lineup is not as deep nor scary and they still might be without one of their best righty bats in J.D. Martinez. Opponents are hitting .190 off Minor with runners in scoring position. Minor is a GPP-only option for me tonight due to a combination of his price and the potential for the Red Sox bats to break out.

Griffin Canning. Dodgers at Angels ($7,800 FD, $8,400 DK): Now here is another GPP-only play because it against the Dodgers. One thing to keep in mind about the Dave Roberts led team: They bashed the ball in April. They were very good in May. Their bats have come back down to earth in June. Canning seems more mature for his young age (22 years old) and has a plan how to attack hitters. He struck out a career-high eight batters over six innings against the A’s (if you watch him pitch, pay attention to his swing-and-miss slider, one of the best in the game), but he gave up four runs in a loss. He has a 2.25 ERA over his last four outings.

Bargain Basement Arms

Jason Vargas, Mets at Yankees ($6,800 FD, $7.600): The pitcher that everyone loves to pick on in DFS is coming off a complete game shutout. in the middle of April, Vargas owned a 14.21 ERA, living up to the moniker of the favorite pitcher to stack against. Since then, he’s posted a 1.85 ERA in seven starts, including his eighth career shutout last time out against the Giants. Wait a minute….Vargas has eight career shutouts? Eight!!! Wow, I guess you really do learn something new every day. Another GPP-only option for me tonight in Yankee Stadium.

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