Daily Fantasy SportsNFL Week 4 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Patriots at Chiefs Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago written by Antonio D'Arcangelis The season continues with the first of two Monday night showdowns, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the last two Week 4 NFL DFS contests!Introduction to Single-Game ShowdownsDraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.Let’s get to the game!Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,900, FD $17,000)Pivot: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (DK $14,100, FD $13,000)Contrarian #1: Tyreek Hill (DK $16,500, FD $13,500)Contrarian #2: Rex Burkhead (DK $10,500, FD $10,500)Pricing is much softer this week and given the depressed pricing on the Patriots RBs and secondary receiving options (after Julian Edelman), it’s much easier to field a showdown lineup with Patrick Mahomes as captain.I’m still very much interested in using RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and using him up top frees up even more salary to stack up Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce, or even WR Tyreek Hill.The key to smashing this showdown will be which two Patriots offensive players you select, and there’s a few combos I have interest in. But we also need to get shares of Mecole Hardman and DeMarcus Robinson, who are both very affordable.I also have plenty of interest in the Chiefs DST in this matchup, if for any other reason than this will not be your typical Bill Belichick-coached Patriots team, and the tight travel schedule and limited preparation could lead to more mistakes than we’ve become accustomed to. With Cam Newton (COVID-19) unavailable for Monday’s game, Brian Hoyer is the starting QB. And while his price is affordable, I don’t have a ton of interest in using him against the formidable Chiefs unit.Both James White (who is playing but missed the last two weeks) and Julian Edelman (questionable, knee) are question marks, so the two best Patriots offensive players to target might be Rex Burkhead and N’Keal Harry. If Edelman is healthy, he’s probably worth using, and White (the definition of a boom-or-bust DFS play tonight) is a complete wild card with Sony Michel already ruled out and the Pats needing live bodies for their backfield.Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense togetherDON’T: Use Patriots-heavy stacks over the Chiefs tonight. I just don’t see it working out given the events of the past few days.DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.DON’T: Build a showdown lineup without at least three Chiefs players – it’s not the time to get cute.Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):Patrick MahomesClyde Edwards-HelaireTyreek HillTravis KelceRex BurkheadChiefs DSTBrian HoyerJulian Edelman (questionable)James WhiteHarrison ButkerN’Keal HarryMecole HardmanDamiere ByrdSammy Watkins DeMarcus Robinson Darrel Williams Ryan Izzo Nick Folk 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsNFL Wildcard Weekend DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Slate Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 4 years ago written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com Welcome to my preview for Wildcard Weekend DFS. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel and are presented in parentheses next to the player ie. (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price). Wildcard Weekend DFS – Buffalo @ Houston – 4:35 PM EST Opening Line: Houston -3 | Over/Under 41.5The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 41.5 in total and is up to 42.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 326 games with over/under lines between 41.5 and 43.5. In these games: Games have gone over the line 149 times (45.7%). and under 176 times (54.0%).QuarterbacksFrom a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($6,400)/($8,100) looks like the inferior option to Josh Allen ($6,500)/($7,800) at the quarterback position. The reason being is that the matchup strongly favors Allen with the Texans ranking in the bottom-ten in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. The Houston defense as a whole is just not very good and the Bills over the past five weeks have had an extremely difficult strength of schedule. According to BuffaloBills.com, each of the Bills’ last five opponents put a top-10 NFL defense on the field (Jets 7th, Patriots 1st, Steelers 5th, Ravens 4th, Cowboys 5th) and it showed. The Bills went 2-3 down the stretch and averaged only 16 points per game. Now, the Bills go up against Houston’s defense, ranked 28th in the league and giving up 24 points per game. However, you cannot ignore the “it” factor that Watson brings to the table in big games. Despite the fact that the Bills rank top-six versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks, Watson is an absolute smash button in GPPs. Allen is a preferred option in cash formats, but both are good options because of the rushing upside they offer. The Texans allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season. Watson is also averaging over 25 fantasy points per game at home and has scored at least 19.90 fantasy points in his last five home games.DefensesFor defenses overall on this slate, I am leaning towards the Titans DST ($2,400)/($3,600) as the pay-down option in cash formats because the Patriots offense currently is just not an offense to fear right now. I do think that the Texans DST ($2,600)/($4,100) is interesting against Josh Allen in his first NFL road playoff game. The Bills DST ($3,100)/($4,000) is also in a good spot versus the Houston Texans who with Watson can take sacks and force turnovers. In his only game versus Buffalo, Watson threw two interceptions and was sacked seven times in 2018. Running BacksDo not forget about 1,000-yard rusher Carlos Hyde ($5,100)/($6,400) or new bell-cow back Devin Singletary ($6,000)/($6,200). The Bills defense is weak against the run. Allowing 4.4 yards per attempt on the road this season, and just look at the production they have allowed to some backs recently. 96 rushing yards to Sony Michel, over 100 combined rushing and receiving to Ezekiel Elliott, and 100 rushing yards to both Adrian Peterson and Nick Chubb. Hyde is seeing close to 20 touches per game over the past three weeks outside Week 17. It’s actually pretty ridiculous that Marshawn Lynch ($5,200)/($5,900) is $100 more expensive on DraftKings than Hyde. Singletary is seeing a similar workload to Hyde but sees much more work in the passing game. The Texans matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. This season Houston has allowed the second-most receptions, second-most yards, and most receiving touchdowns to the running back position. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsAt the tight end position, Dawson Knox ($2,900)/($4,800) is a very cheap price on DraftKings and FanDuel. Over the last four weeks, the Texans are the fourth-worst team at defending the tight end position in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Houston secondary is also suspect at best so expect to see John Brown ($6,000)/($6,500) and Cole Beasley ($5,600)/($6,300) to be productive in this matchup. The Texans have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past two weeks. They rank seventh-worst pass defense in DVOA. For the lesser owned guys, we saw Duke Williams ($3,400)/($4,500) play really well when he was active last week, so he could see more playing time if he is active on Sunday. The same goes for DeAndre Carter ($3,400)/($4,500) who is the next man up if Stills or Fuller cannot go on Sunday. The Bills are dealing with an injury in their secondary with their number two outside cornerback in Levi Wallace. With Tre’Davious White most likely drawing his coverage to DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700)/($8,300), that would boost the likes of both Will Fuller V ($4,900/$5,600) and Kenny Stills ($4,600/$5,800). Over the past four weeks, the Bills rank seventh-best versus the wide receiver position. Hopkins is coming off his worst game of the season so he is definitely somebody to go back to. To get an interesting stack that will be great leverage will be punting tight end with Jordan Akins ($2,800)/($4,600). He is third in routes run and targets from Weeks 14-16 over Darren Fells. Wildcard Weekend DFS – Titans @ Patriots – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: New England -5 | Over/Under 43.5Quarterbacks, DefensesAs a Patriots fan, I try to take my bias out when making DFS decisions. This is why I strongly feel in cash formats that paying down for the Titans DST ($2,400)/($4,100) is the best move. But in GPPs, it is worth noting that this Titans defense is not good and Tom Brady ($5,800)/($7,600) in the playoffs needs to be considered. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. The Ryan Tannehill ($6,300)/($7,800) breakout season also ends here. If you look at Tannehill’s games this season he has either been at home (six games) or played on the road versus a bottom-ten defense. Tannehill is an excellent quarterback at home, and that goes back to his Miami days when he won against the Patriots four different times. However, things are different when he has played on the road especially in New England where he is 0-6. Tannehill is averaging just 16.2 fantasy points per game on the road versus 24.1 points at home. Both his sub-18 points games came on the road (at IND, and at HOU), and his two better games on the road were versus Carolina and Oakland. All those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Patriots rank number one versus the quarterback position and still have the best pass defense based on passing DVOA via FootballOutsiders. This could be the week the Patriots DST ($3,400)/($4,600) breaks the slate wide open. Tannehill has 10 interceptions and four touchdowns thrown at New England in his career. Running BacksThe Titans matchup is also slightly better for the Patriots with them allowing the tenth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, it has really been pass-catching running backs that have done damage versus Tennesse. They have allowed the third-most receptions and targets allowed to running backs this season. Insert James White ($5,700)/($6,200) who the Patriots oftentimes like to unleash during the playoffs.Derrick Henry ($8,200)/($9,300) looks to be really popular in this spot coming off a massive game where he saw season-highs in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing attempts. But he is far from a lock for me because the Patriots are going to sell out to stop the run, and Henry does not catch passes. So in a format like DraftKings, where receptions are so vital, he should be faded. You are hoping for touchdowns with Henry and the Patriots have allowed just one rushing touchdown to backs this season. They are allowing just 3.6 yards per attempt at home and just 3.6 rushing first downs. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsOutside of Michael Thomas, the only other lock-button wide receiver has to be Julian Edelman ($6,500)/($7,000). Edelman is dealing with injuries, but still, his playoff record is astonishing. He has double-digit targets in every single playoff game he has played since 2013 (12 games). He is averaging well over 100 yards per game in his last six playoff games and has eight catches in nine of his last 11. Also, N’Keal Harry ($5,300) continues to be used more in the Patriots’ offense. https://twitter.com/AndrewErickson_/status/1211745999510757376On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($7,400)/($7,700) has been on absolute fire and lock-down cornerback Stephon Gillmore has shown some holes over the past two weeks. I am not looking to fade Brown, because it’s really his run after the catch ability that is why he is so good, and he is really emerging an alpha in this offense. Also, consider that Titans’ receivers have had success versus the Patriots specifically Corey Davis ($3,800). In two career games versus New England, Davis has three touchdowns, 12 receptions, and 188 receiving yards. The focus is going to be on Brown, but as seen in the video below, Jonnu Smith ($3,800)/($5,800) could expose Patriots’ safety Patrick Chung. https://twitter.com/TDavenport_NFL/status/1212459802338701312Wildcard Weekend DFS – Vikings @ Saints – 1:05 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 47Quarterbacks, DefensesThe 2019 Minnesota Vikings did not beat a team with a .500 or better on the road this season. So you can play Drew Brees ($6,600)/($8,500) with a ton of confidence because he is just absolutely raking at home in the dome. But the Saints are going to make Kirk Cousins ($6,100)/($7,600) try to beat them. If you look at all the games that the Vikings have lost Cousins is averaging 35 passing attempts versus 27 in victories. So lots of passing attempts for Cousins, but against a pretty good Saints’ defense, I am not so sure he will have a great fantasy day. If anything it makes me favor the Saints DST ($3,000)/($4,700) because they will have a ton of opportunities for turnovers and sacks. Running BackThe Vikings matchup is also slightly better with them allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game over the past four weeks to running backs. Specifically, the damage has been done in the passing game with Minnesota allowing the second-most receptions (32) to running backs over the past four weeks. Alvin Kamara ($7,400)/($8,200) should be a lock at the running back position across all lineups. I also think in GPPs pairing Latavius Murray ($5,000)/($5,700) with Kamara in a #revengegame could be nice leverage. Murray had 17 carries last week and will probably get at least one red zone look against his former team.Dalvin Cook ($7,800)/($8,000) looks to be ready to return for the playoffs and he should also be in your lineup. The Saints run defense has been dealing with injuries, but no team has been able to expose them. I think Cook changes the narrative here. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsThe one position that the Saints have been most vulnerable to is the wide receiver position. In the last four weeks, they rank fourth-worst versus the position. This is why you should be looking to roster Stefon Diggs ($6,600)/($7,300) and Adam Thielen ($6,200)/($6,200) as one-offs away from Kirk Cousins. They are better as bring back pieces in Saints’ onslaught stacks. Again also similar to Akins getting more work, this could be game where Irv Smith Jr. ($2,700)/($5,300) has a bigger role with the Vikings potentially point chasing. He is second on the team in routes run Weeks 14-16 and he was rested last week. It’s also a homecoming for Smith whose father played for the Saints so he should be amped up and ready to go. Michael Thomas ($9,300/$8,900) is a lock and you should do whatever you can to roster him on both sites. I will say that as a value play I love Tre’Quan Smith ($4,000/$5,500) in this spot. Smith has a touchdown reception in every single home game started by Drew Brees this season. The Vikings this season have allowed the most red-zone touches, and third-most red-zone targets to opposing wide receivers this season. Not to mention Smith is coming off a season-high in targets (five), receptions (five), yards (56) while playing 62% of the snaps second to only Michael Thomas (67%). No other Saints wide receiver has caught that many passes since Ted Ginn Jr. reeled in seven passes back in Week 1. This slate as a whole is also not filled with great options at the tight end position, but Jared Cook ($4,900)/($6,500) could stand out from the crowd here. The Vikings play a majority of a cover 2 defense which means two defenders deep with five defenders underneath. This could potentially create massive opportunities for Cook to make plays down the seam splitting those two deep defenders. Cook is arguably the Saints’ most explosive pass weapon based on 10.4 average depth of target. Wildcard Weekend DFS – Seahawks @ Eagles – 4:40 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 46Quarterbacks, DefensesThis is a different Eagles’ defense when they play at home. They rank second-worst in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed on the road, but at home fourth-best. They rank fourth-worst in passing yards per game but rank top four at home (under 200 passing yards/game). Lastly, they also rank bottom five in yards per pass attempt on the road, but at home are middle to the pack. So with that it in mind, I am not locking Russell Wilson ($6,800)/($7,900) as a must-play in any format especially as the most expensive quarterback. Ultimately, I am just not sure Carson Wentz ($6,200)/($7,900) has enough firepower on offense to really have a blow-up game on Sunday. The ownership for a quarterback is going to be diluted across the board and with no rushing upside for Wentz, he is not on my radar. Seattle also ranks top-ten versus quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Seattle’s weakness is in their run defense. Running BackOver the past four weeks, the Seattle Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs; just one point per game below the Carolina Panthers atrocious run defense. They have given up eight rushing touchdowns which are tied for the most during that span. Miles Sanders ($6,200)/($7,000) is considered day to day, but when players have that condition it usually trends on them missing the next game. Boston Scott ($5,800) absolutely blew up in Sanders’ absence in Week 17, and he would continue to see heavy usage should Sanders ultimately be sidelined. Things can get tricky here because this is the last game on the slate, so you will not know if you can trust Scott if Sanders plays. You can always pivot off Sanders to DK Metcalf ($6,100)/($6,200) or just insert Boston Scott ($5,800)/($6,600). The injury surrounding Sanders could lower Scott’s ownership despite him being in a good spot. You can also pivot off Scott onto Greg Ward ($5,200)/($5,600), Dallas Goedert ($5,200)/($6,700) or one of the Seahawks backs. Jordan Howard ($4,900)/($5,600) should also see an expanded role if Sanders’ misses which translates to me (goalline work). Considering Seattle has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns to running backs if your lineup is dead heading into the last playoff game on Sunday consider swapping to Howard. For example, if your roster Scott and Ward you could swap directly to Metcalf and Howard for the same price. Don’t also fall in the trap of playing #BeastMode when Travis Homer ($5,300)/($6,100) got the majority of usage last week. https://twitter.com/adamlevitan/status/1211669370860167168Wide Receivers, Tight EndsI have highlighted the fact that the Eagles play better at home, but some receivers can still run wild versus them because they are still dealing with injuries. Over the past four weeks, they still are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers with the third-most targets and fourth-most yards. Tyler Lockett ($7,200)/($7,300) and Metcalf insert here as the receivers to stack with Wilson. All-season though the Eagles have been more vulnerable on the perimeter so I prefer Metcalf with the discount. I do also really like the great value with David Moore ($3,400)/($5,100) who could be the primary number three receiver with injuries to Malik Turner and Jaron Brown. Down the stretch, the Seahawks were one of the worst teams at defending the tight end position. So if Zach Ertz ($6,000)/($6,900) is deemed out playing Dallas Goedert would be a must. Goedert has 22 targets over the past two weeks in the absence of Ertz. According to Pro Football Doc on Twitter Ertz is not going to play. Use this information to your advantage. https://twitter.com/ProFootballDoc/status/1211742048266547200Image via Keith Allison 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFLDaily Fantasy Sports Saturday DFS Week 16 Slate Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 4 years ago written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com Welcome to my preview for Saturday DFS Week 16. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all three games on Saturday. Are you ready for some Saturday DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings. Please join Phil Naessens and I as we break down the Saturday slate on the Win Daily PodcastSaturday DFS Week 16 – Texans @ Buccaneers – 1 PM EST Opening Line: Houston -1 | Over/Under 53The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 53 in total and is down to 49 from Sunday. The spread has also jumped from -1 Houston to -3 Houston. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points.QuarterbacksFrom a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($7,000) and Jameis Winston ($6,900) look like the clear cut best quarterbacks on the slate. Watson is averaging 23.9 fantasy points per game and has essentially all his weapons at his disposal. He has also had 13 rushing attempts for 76 yards over the past two weeks. Watson is a great option for a cash game, but there is a chance that he may not necessarily explode in this matchup. The Tampa Bay defense has been much better over the past month. Over the past four weeks, they rank tenth-best versus the QB position in terms of fantasy points allowed. Patriots rank ninth for some perspective. This improvement has a lot to do with the improved play of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean via Pro Football Focus. Since Week 10, Dean has the No. 2 coverage grade during that time (91.0), allowing just 33.3% of targets to be completed into his coverage, while Davis ranks eighth with a coverage grade of 81.1 and his 11 forced incompletions lead the league during that time period. Dean and Davis bring two physical corners to the outside of the Bucs’ secondary. Winston seems like the much better GPP play because of the fact that he will be without both Evans and Godwin. He has a better matchup and has essentially been lights out at home. The Texans have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback position over the past four weeks and rank third-worst overall on the season. Winston outside of Week 1 versus SF has scored at least 21 fantasy points in every single home game he has started. The lack of weapons is concerning but Winston has already come out and said he wants to get his TEs involved. Over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Perhaps Bruce Arians will build his offensive gameplan around Cameron Brate ($3,500) and O.J. Howard ($4,000). https://twitter.com/gregauman/status/1206980103256850432DefensesIt’s also worth mentioning that at the price the Texans ($3,200) could be heavily owned versus the Buccaneers that has been a full-proof positive strategy with Winston leading the NFL in interceptions. However, the Buccanneers ($2,300) should not be overlooked because they have the ability to generate sacks. Shaq Barrett has tied Warren Sapp for the most sacks in a single season in Tampa Bay history and leads the NFL in sacks/quarterback hits. Tampa Bay has also scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of the last four weeks. Houston has scored more than just 15 fantasy points once this season. Get Buccaneers DST exposure in GPPs especially with ownership highly favoring Watson at quarterback. Running BacksThe Texans have allowed the most receptions to running backs, the fourth-most targets, most receiving yards, most receiving touchdowns, and second-most red-zone targets. Overall over the past four weeks, Houston has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position. So can you trust the trifecta of Ronald Jones ($4,400), Peyton Barber ($3,900), and Dare Ogunbowale ($3,300)? Arians mentioned he wanted to see more of the running backs involved in the passing game. Unfortunately dissecting which back to trust is tough because over the past two weeks Jones has eight targets with five receptions, Barber has four targets with four receptions, and Ogunbowale has six targets with six receptions. The upside still lies with Jones who owns 10.3 yards per reception this season, but Barber should be mixed in GPPs. He made a nice play on Sunday so Arians could “reward” Barber with more looks. https://twitter.com/BrandonThornNFL/status/1206816955224772608For the Texans, the matchup is absolute brutal versus the third-ranked defense versus the running back position allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt at home (second-best). Carlos Hyde ($5,000) has rushed for 1,000 yards this season and the Texans do have a 26-point implied team total. Hyde just has seven carries inside the 5-yard line this season. Hyde is someone to get off this week. Rather chase the upside with a Buccaneers running back. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsAs I mentioned before over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Both Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight ends are worth rostering. The easiest fade is Breshad Perriman ($6,000). Coming off a three-touchdown game where he ranked fourth on the team in targets, do not chase the touchdowns in this situation. Justin Watson ($4,600) is cheaper and will probably end up being the better per dollar play to play at the wide receiver position. https://twitter.com/draftroompod/status/1207335740704735232As for the Texans, DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) is seeing Michael Thomas like usage in the passing game with eight targets every single week since Week 4. If you are going with Watson in cash, it just makes too much sense to pair him with Hopkins. I also love Will Fuller ($5,900) just because of the upside he brings to the Texans’ offense. Though the Buccaneers have been better versus the QB position, they still rank sixth-worst versus the wide receiver over the past four weeks. Also, Jordan Akins ($2,900) is a sneaky tight end play. Darren Fells ($3,000) has fallen behind Jordan Akins in terms of targets in recent weeks, but he remains Houston’s top tight end in terms of offensive snaps. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the fourth-worst team in terms of fantasy points allowed to the tight end position. Saturday DFS Week 16 – Bills @ Patriots – 4:25 PM EST Opening Line: New England -6.5 | Over/Under 38.5The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 38.5 in total and is down to 36.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 273 games where the closing line favored the home team by 5.5 to 7.5 points. In these games, the team like New England won the game 201 times (73.6%).Quarterbacks, DefensesBoth the Bills and Patriots rank top-ten in terms of the fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Tom Brady ($5,200) is the cheapest quarterback on the slate and at home where he is averaging 20 DraftKings points per game, he should be considered for GPPs. The Bills allow the fifth-most passing attempts on the road this season and New England ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts per game. Josh Allen ($5,300) is also worth considering in GPPs that you can play naked as he could be in line for a huge game rushing the football. There’s an argument to be made that the defenses on this slate are even better plays with the Patriots DST ($4,000) potentially having a slate-breaking upside. They have yet to score less than seven fantasy points at home this season. New England rarely turns the ball over at home, so the Bills DST ($2,900) is a thinner play.Running BacksThe best running back play in this game has to be Devin Singletary ($5,500) for cash formats. Over the past month, Singletary has been averaging twenty-plus touches per game with usage as a receiver and runner averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. New England’s weaknesses are definitely more versus their run defense so Singletary could find a crease there in the defense. He also did not play in their Week 3 matchup versus the Patriots. Frank Gore ($3,400) rushed for over 100 yards for the one and only time this season when he played the Patriots on 17 attempts. The Patriots have also allowed the fifth-most receptions to the running back position over the past four weeks.On the Patriots side, Sony Michel ($4,600) is nothing more than a GPP play, but he does have that three-touchdown upside especially at home. James White ($5,800) has seen at least ten targets in two of his last three games versus Buffalo and could see an expanded role in the passing game should Julian Edelman be any more limited. Wide Receivers, Tight EndsStarting slot cornerback Jonathan Jones will miss this game which could create a great opportunity for Cole Beasley ($4,800) to have a nice day. Beasley had a season-high 12 targets last time he played NE for 75 yards. Other players to consider that could provide X-factors in this game are Mohamed Sanu ($3,800) and N’Keal Harry ($4,000). Sanu saw a team-high eight targets last week and Harry was playing ahead of Philip Dorsett ($3,100) and Jakobi Meyers ($3,100). If you want to get a weird look at Ben Watson ($2,700) who I know Phil loves this week as a contrarian play! Bills rank fifth-worst versus the tight end over the past four weeks. Saturday DFS Week 16 – Rams @ 49ers – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: San Francisco -6.5 | Over/Under 46Quarterbacks, DefensesBoth the Rams and 49ers rank top-ten in terms of the most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. However, there is only one quarterback that I will be considering starting: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500) that comes in cheaper than Jared Goff ($5,800). Goff traditionally struggles on the road especially against teams that pressure the quarterback. The 49ers rank third-best in the NFL in pressure rate by Pro Football Focus. Goff scored 2.12 fantasy points the last time he played SF. Garoppolo scored 14.12 points, but that was a game where Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin were the leading receivers. Both defenses can pressure the quarterback, but I prefer the 49ers DST ($4,300) in a game that I project to be a 49ers’ onslaught. Running BackTodd Gurley ($6,300) is a clear-cut option in cash games because the Rams are 100% convinced now on getting him as many touches as they can. He has averaged over 20 touches over the past three weeks. Raheem Mostert ($6,100) is also a trust-worthy option in cash games versus the Rams who just got torched on the ground by the Cowboys. The 49ers are second in the NFL in fantasy points scored for their running backs so you know that one of these running backs is going to be on a winning GPP lineup. I am looking at you Matt Breida ($3,800). Wide Receivers, Tight EndsNeither Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) or Deebo Samuel ($5,100) was heavily involved in the team’s first matchup versus the Rams, and Jalen Ramsey was not on LA. I do not expect either to be heavily shadowed by Ramsey, but both move around the offense and play out of the slot to see production. Obviously George Kittle ($6,500) has been on absolute fire and is the clear cut stacking option with Jimmy G. As for the Rams options I am getting off the Tyler Higbee ($5,000) train with the return of Gerald Everett ($4,000). Besides the matchup is not great either for Higbee who will be drawing coverage from Jimmie Ward. According to Pro Football Focus, Ward is ranked as the 6th-best safety with an 85.0 overall grade on the year. He also has an 80.5 pass coverage grade and an 86.4 run defense grade. 49ers defensive coordinator came out and said on Higbee that, “We do have to be aware of where he is and understand that he’s not just a decoy, but he and Goff right now have a good relationship and they’re playing very well together.”Robert Woods ($6,200) is still getting all of the targets in the Rams’ passing attack making him the presumed cash play, but I like utilizing Cooper Kupp ($6,500) in GPPs. Unlike Woods Kupp is no stranger to the end zone and the 49ers have allowed the second-most wide receiver touchdowns over the past two weeks. Image via Keith Allison 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL Week 15 Wide Receiver DFS Picks Sean Escobar 4 years ago written by Sean Escobar The slate of wide receivers is incredible as we are approaching teams clinching playoff spots. There are some spots where you can afford some expensive receivers and some cheaper options with a good upside. Let’s dive into the best wideouts for Cash Games, GPP and who you should avoid with our Week 15 Wide Receiver DFS Picks. Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!If you’d like to see more of my DFS work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabeneWeek 15 Wide Receiver Cash Game PlaysJulian Edelman, NE @ CINDK ($7,100) FD ($7,700)Julian Edelman is going to have the most targets for the Patriots and has been doing well lately. In the last three games, he is averaging seven catches for 98 yards. Those were against Kansas City, Houston, and Dallas, which are leagues above the Bengals defense. Edelman also has a touchdown in each of the last two games. I don’t think any defensive back on the roster can stop Edelman so expect a nice 100-yard game out of him. Jarvis Landry, CLE @ ARIDK ($6,700) FD ($7,400)Jarvis Landry is the number one option for Baker Mayfield and going against the worst pass-defending team in the NFL. When he went up against another struggling defense in Miami, Landry had 13 catches for 148 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Expect one of the biggest statistical games of the season for Landry. Week 15 Wide Receiver GPP PlaysStefon Diggs, MIN @ LACDK ($7,300) FD ($7,700)Stefon Diggs is still one of the best receivers in the game. He is a deep threat with seven plays of at least 40 yards. The only issue is that he has four fumbles on the year as well so ball security is the biggest weakness. The Chargers are solid against the pass but with a handful of their defensive backs on the injury report means trouble against a speedy receiver. Expect a solid game out of Diggs to keep Minnesota in the NFC North race.DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @ TENDK ($8,000) FD ($8,600)Hopkins is a catching machine as he is at 93 receptions thus far, which ranks only behind Michael Thomas. Tennesee is in the Top 10 with passing yards allowed per game, but the last time they faced a solid number one receiver, Tyreek Hill had 157 yards. The Titans struggle with the upper echelon of receivers and DeAndre Hopkins should have a great game. Week 15 Wide Receiver FadesKeenan Allen, MIN vs LACDK ($6,300) FD ($6,800)He only has six targets in each of the last two games so it seems like Philip Rivers is transitioning away from him as of late. Minnesota forces turnovers so the time of possession could be heavily favored towards the Vikings as well, limiting the opportunities that Keenan Allen would have to make an impact. Xavier Rhodes has been limited in practice due to an ankle injury but is expected to play against the Chargers. With Rhodes covering him for most of, if not all of the game, expect Allen to be held under his average and not worth the price. Julio Jones, ATL @ SFDK ($7,000) FD ($7,500)Julio Jones is still one of the best receivers in the league and the 49ers are coming off a game where they seemed like any offense would cause problems. However, the Saints offense is a completely different animal than the Atlanta offense. San Francisco is still the best team defending the pass with only 150.8 passing yards allowed. Expect a few catches but nothing that will make you regret the decision to fade him in your DFS contests this Sunday. Monkey Knife Fight DFS Picks of the Week Click Here to Play and Get 100 Percent Bonus!Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Danny Amendola over 17.5 receptions. Chris Godwin is going to be Jameis Winston’s biggest target as Mike Evans is listed as doubtful so I expect around seven catches for him. O.J. Howard has seen his targets increase the past two weeks as well so expect a handful of catches for him as well. Danny Amendola is good for about five catches himself and that should get you right at 18. This one might be tight but the over should still hit. 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL NFL DFS: Week Seven MNF Showdown Guide, Prop Picks and Podcast 4 years ago written by This report will provide plays for the Week Seven NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider and also include my favorite prop bets on Monkey Knife Fight.New England Patriots vs. New York JetsO/U: 43.5 (NE -9.5)NFL DFS: New England PatriotsThe undefeated Patriots head to the Meadowlands to take on the rejuvenated New York Jets. The Patriots have been lights out on defense, logging 25 sacks and maintaining the second highest adjusted sack rate in the league (10%). They have also been very stingy on the ground, allowing just over 3.4 yards per carry. The one thing everyone is talking about is the inconsistencies in the NE offense. They aren’t great in the run game, they average just over three YPC. They also haven’t been stellar in pass protection, allowing a 5.8% adjusted sack rate. Not the worst in the league, but enough to cause concern against a very underrated Jets defense. To make matters worse, WR Josh Gordon, TE Ryan Izzo, and TE Matt LaCosse have already been ruled out. Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Patrick Chung, and Rex Burkhead are all listed as questionable to play.NFL DFS: New York JetsThe savior of the New York Jets returned last week and put on quite a show against the Cowboys. There aren’t any stats for me to bolster for the Jets, who rank second to last in pass protection (25 sacks allowed) and average just over three YPC. I’m going to say the same thing I said last week when I wrote up the Jets offense, forget everything you think you know about this team. They had Luke Falk under center, who quite frankly doesn’t have the intangibles to even be an NFL QB, but they made due with what they had and that is reflected through the stats. It is easy to defend an offense with a QB that can’t throw outside the numbers, so you can just stack the box and defend their All-Pro running back. It is worth noting the Jets are missing two starting offensive linemen (Kelechi Osemele, Kelvin Beachum). Sam Darnold will also be without 2018 standout TE Chris Herndon, who is still dealing with a hamstring injury. I feel like the Jets offense is going to be effective tonight. The Patriots have had a vanilla schedule for six weeks and now they get a division opponent with their starting QB back and some great weapons at his disposal.NFL DFS: DraftKings ApproachNFL DFS Captain: Preferred (in order of preference): Sam Darnold ($13,500), Julian Edelman ($16,800), Robby Anderson ($10,200), Patriots DST (10,800).NFL DFS Flex: (Whoever you do not use in Captain is also great in the flex): Tom Brady ($11,600), Phillip Dorsett ($6,600), James White ($7,400) Ben Watson ($4,400), Ryan Griffin ($2,100), Brandon Bolden ($4,800), Jameson Crowder ($7,000) Sam Ficken ($3,600). Not crazy about Le’Veon Bell tonight, but his volume can’t be ignored. Le’Veon Bell ($9,200)NFL DFS: FanDuel ApproachNFL DFS MVP: Tom Brady (cash) ($15,500), Sam Darnold ($14,500), Julian Edelman (14,000), Phillip Dorsett ($8,500)NFL DFS: Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks of the Day – Click Here to Play and Get 100 Percent Matching Bonus!NFL DFS Prop Picks:Julian Edelman – Edelman averages nearly seven receptions for game and should see an uptick with Josh Gordon already confirmed out for tonight’s game.Le’Veon Bell – Bell averages nearly six receptions per game and should continue to see targets out of the backfield, one of the reasons he was brought to New York.Jamison Crowder – I had to make a decision between Crowder and Robby Anderson, but Crowder will see me volume just based on where he lines up (slot). Crowder averages nearly six receptions per game.The safest play will be for 2x your bet, but you can certainly make a case for the three of these guys to combine for over 20 receptions in this game. Did you enjoy this piece of content? Sign up for our gold membership today!Follow us on Twitter! 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL DFS: Week Seven Injury Breakdown 4 years ago written by In the Week Seven Injury Breakdown, I’ll discuss a few players who are game time decisions or playing through designations as well as a few who are returning following a layoff from injury. As always, my aim is to provide more context from a medical perspective. Make sure to bookmark my user profile as I am constantly updating these injury articles with analysis as news rolls in. Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more! Saquon BarkleyI won’t bury the lead and will start with Barkley as he is scheduled to make his return following a high ankle sprain. Although I am concerned for Barkley’s long term health, his ankle should be good to go this week. I have no issues paying up for him against the Arizona Cardinals 25th ranked rushing DVOA (Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average) according to Football Outsiders. Evan EngramBarkley’s teammate, Engram, is scheduled to return from an MCL sprain. He’s going to be the chalk this week, so if you need an excuse to pivot consider that he has a history of these specific sprains and it would not be a complete shock if he re-aggravates the injury this week. I am not saying fade Engram altogether, but I am saying that his knee has proven to be structurally unstable in the past. Devin SingletarySingletary will finally make his return after missing the previous three games of the season. From an injury perspective, he’s had plenty of time to recover from a hamstring strain. I’m mentioning him here because I have gotten some questions about him. John Brown“Smoky” gave us a scare this week when he surprisingly popped up on the injury report with a groin strain. Although he’s no longer on the report and practiced in full on Friday, this is worth mentioning because he carries the sickle cell trait. This trait slows tissue healing times and complicates recovery. This is enough information for me to avoid him in cash games this week.David JohnsonD.J. is once again a game-time decision as this is becoming a pattern. This week his designation is due to an ankle injury that limited him in practice all week. To make matters worse, Kliff Kingsbury told the media that if the Cardinals would have played on Friday, Johnson would not have been ready to go. Johnson is no more than a contrarian play in tournaments this week if he’s active, as the Cardinals’ injuries have proven difficult to peg. At this point, Johnson could have a high ankle sprain or a lateral ankle sprain, but there’s no way to be certain. Again, if D.J. is active on Sunday, I wouldn’t blame you for sprinkling him into a few tournaments as the Giants are in the bottom 5 in passing DVOA, where Johnson has made his money this year. But he would not be a high percentage play from an injury perspective.Christian KirkKirk suffered a high ankle sprain in Week Four, so I would not expect him to be active until Week Eight at the earliest despite his game-time decision status. On the off chance he is active, I’m not confident in using him until I see him play a full game and remain healthy.Todd GurleyNext on the Week Seven Injury Breakdown is a player who I believe we’ll begin seeing more and more often in my reports as the season goes on. The bottom line with Gurley at this point is that he’s not the player he was last season due to his knee condition. Despite the Rams reporting a “contusion” kept him out of Week Six, it’s within the realm of possibilities that it was actually his arthritis flaring up or a combination of both. As such, it would not be surprising if Gurley once again re-aggravates his knee, leaving Darrell Henderson as the top dog in a game with a ridiculous 54 over/under. Darrell Henderson will likely occupy the Malcolm Brown (OUT) role and could serve as a serious salary saver.Marquez Valdes-ScantlingMVS practiced in a limited fashion on Friday and is listed on the injury report with both knee and ankle injuries. He also admitted that he finished the game on Monday night “on adrenaline” which is not a good sign. Even if MVS is active on Sunday (he’s currently questionable) there’s no way I trust him in cash and would even be hesitant to use him in tournaments despite the volume. Why? Because this is a classic situation in which a starter might play through serious injury due to the state of his team’s overall health. His price tag is just too high for me at this point.Amari CooperI’m surprised Cooper is expected to play considering that on Thursday he “plateaued” in his recovery according to reports. Essentially, a contusion is a bruise of deep tissues. For context, when you or I gracefully ram into a door frame and bruise our arm, that’s only affecting our thickest layer of skin. Now, imagine that same bruise penetrating to the muscle. That’s what Cooper is currently dealing with, which makes me nervous to use him this week. Another aspect to consider is the fact that this is a divisional game that the Cowboys would love to win and take control of the NFC Least East. Additionally, there’s always the possibility that Cooper is activated primarily as a decoy a la Julian Edelman in Week Four following a rib injury. The counter argument here is that all Cooper needs against this awful Eagles secondary is one big play. Even then, I don’t trust him any further than a junior high quarterback could throw a football against the Eagles secondary. Well, that may not be the best analogy.Josh GordonFlash did not practice this week and I’m skeptical he plays on Sunday. Thank you for reading the Week Seven Injury Breakdown. Make sure to check back with me on Sunday morning for the Final Injury Report. Good luck this week!THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE. Featured image courtesy of Keith Allison. 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy Sports DFS: Final Injury Report Edwin Porras 4 years ago written by Edwin Porras Week Five is upon us and with kickoff approaching, I’ll walk you through the DFS Final Injury Report so you can set optimal DFS lineups.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more! Terry McLaurinMcLaurin’s decision to play is going to come down to a game time decision it seems yet again. He’s falling into the dreaded one to three missed game average for hamstring strains. Even if he is active, there’s no way to confidently use him against the Patriots defense with Colt McCoy named the starter.Devin SingletaryAnother rookie who is a regular on the Final Injury Report has a real chance to play on Sunday. He’s definitely not somebody I’m willing to use in cash games, but he could be useful in a handful of GPPs as the injury designation tends to scare others away. Be aware that even if he’s active, it does not imply he is ready. It’s just a reality of the NFL. Julian EdelmanTwo week removed from the rib injury, you can confidently use Edelman this week as he should not be limited by the injury. T.Y. HiltonIf I’ve said it once, I’ve said it 100 times: trust the process. Hilton did not practice until Friday and was limited at that. If you’re going to use him in the single game slate, be aware that he is at risk for re-tear of his quad. He’s as tough as they come, so if he goes nuts against this Chiefs defense just know that I won’t be using him personally. Make your own decision on Hilton this week. Marlon MackMack is also on the single game slate tonight, so there’s a good chance you’re thinking about using him. Given that last week he followed the same practice pattern and left the game before the fourth quarter, there’s no confidence he’ll finish the game in Week Five. Lastly, given the negative game script the Colts will likely be in, Hines could be a better play despite his high ownership.That’s it for the DFS Final Injury report. Good luck this week! THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE. Image courtesy of Keith Allison. 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy Sports DFS: Final Injury Report Edwin Porras 4 years ago written by Edwin Porras Week Four is here and kickoff is just a few hours away. Read my DFS Final Injury Report to fine tune your lineups and crush the opponents. Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more! Julian EdelmanEdelman was limited all week and is listed as questionable on the final injury report. Despite this fact, he will likely be active but I caution you that these rib injuries can be aggravated in one hit. Additionally, as I mentioned earlier this week, the Patriots can win using Edelman as a decoy, in limited snaps, or simply not at all. Edelman is too risky for me this week. Terry McLaurinMcLaurin was a surprise addition onto the injury report on Friday with a hamstring issue. Late week additions are never good and I’m nervous for his performance even if he is active. Due to the volatility of soft tissue injuries such as this, McLaurin is merely a “risk it for the biscuit” play for me this week in tournaments against air (the Giants defense).Marquise BrownI want to mention Hollywood on the Final Injury Report because for the first time all season, he has no injury designation heading into game action. It’s all systems go for Brown who should be relatively low owned in a great matchup after underwhelming last week.Devin SingletaryWhen Singletary practiced on Friday, reports surfaced he had a chance to play on Sunday, but I would have been extremely nervous to use him. Now it seems that the Bills don’t expect him to suit up, so we shouldn’t either.Catch me on Twitter here for up to the minute analysis and updates on injuries. I really appreciate you reading my DFS Final Injury Report. Good luck this week!THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.Sign up for Premium Gold today!Featured image courtesy of Jack Newton. 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy Sports DFS: Week Four Injury Breakdown 4 years ago written by Week Four is going to be your winning week. Week Two was riddled with unexpected injuries for several players. Then last Sunday we saw Saquon Barkley, an anchor in many lineups, go down early in the game with a high-ankle sprain. However, you’re already trending in the right direction by reading my Week Four Injury BreakdownSign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more! Week Four is going to be your week.This week, it seems that there are several players who are injured, yet expected to play. I’ll give you my clinical thoughts on their injury risk.Without further ado, here are the DFS Week Four Injury Breakdowns to help you optimize your lineups in Week Four.Julian EdelmanEdelman is at the top of the list of players who is a yellow light for me this week. It’s hard to deny his impact on the field as Tom Brady’s number one target, but he’s dealing with sore ribs, which can make it painful to breathe, let alone play in an NFL game. Additionally, the Patriots are capable of winning several different ways, including with Edelman acting as a decoy. Or with James White catching nine balls out of the backfield. Or with Rex Burkhead scoring three touchdowns from the slot. You catch my drift. The bottom line is that Edelman is a relative risk this week due to his injury and if you decide to put him in lineups, you’ll have to be okay with a wide range of outcomes. At the very least, avoid him in cash games.T.Y. HiltonHilton was pulled during Week Three mid-game for a quad tear. And make no mistake, muscle strains are muscle tears. He was coerced off the field by the medical staff as he was evidently playing through some serious pain. Fast forward to this week and he has yet to practice and already declared a game time decision. I faded him last week, and he performed through the injury. However, given the fact that he’s still limited, I’m not budging and he won’t be in any of my DFS lineups this week, cash or tournaments.Calvin Ridley and Chris GodwinI’m lumping these two together as both are receivers, both have mysterious hip injuries, both were limited in practice this week, and both have tough matchups on Sunday. The Falcons take on the 12th ranked DVOA Titans and the Buccaneers will face the fourth ranked DVOA Rams. Yikes. I’m fading Ridley altogether as that offense has looked less than stellar as is, but Godwin I’m willing to plug into tournament lineups if he plays as the total for that game is around 50 points. Add in that the masses will be on Mike Evans after a monster game last week and that gives the potential for a profitable Godwin pivot.Mark AndrewsAndrews was a game time decision last week, but after watching him on film, I’m not concerned about his foot injury. Additionally, he practiced on Friday which is an upgrade compared to last week. The most important part? He’s telling reporters that his injury is improving. I’m bullish on Andrews this week as the Browns, since Week One, have ceded a 5-55-2 line to 35 year old Delanie Walker, a 10-61 receiving line to Le’Veon Bell, and north of 250 total receiving yards to the Rams just last week. The masses might be scared away by Andrews’ designation and poor performance from Week Three, but I’m willing to roll with him again. If he underwhelms, it likely won’t be due to injury. Amari CooperCooper had a “precautionary MRI” on his ankle this week, which is concerning in the long term. However, he is expected to suit up on Sunday against a Saints defense that ranks 28th in DVOA. I’m using Cooper in lineups (this week in the Showdown slates) until the wheels fall off, which I hope doesn’t actually happen. He has not entered the dreaded “avoided him in cash games” category for me due to this injury, but I’m afraid that might be the case sooner rather than later as this mysterious injury (that is clearly more than plantar fasciitis) continues to linger. In Week Four, confidently use him as a captain.Terry McLaurinScary Terry has been a revelation this year coming out of Ohio State. He’s the primary source of offense for Washington, but he was held out of practice due to a hamstring strain. Allegedly this is a precaution, but any time a player has an injury in the middle of the week, it’s a bad sign. Especially considering this is a soft tissue strain. I’m fading McLaurin. I can live with him having a big day against the Giants.LeSean McCoy Last week Shady and T.Y. Hilton teamed up to make me look extremely bad as I was fading both of them completely on Sunday. Even though they performed well, they were both pulled mid-game due to their injuries, so I’ll consider the final outcome a push. McCoy is dealing with what I perceive to be a high-ankle issue that simply didn’t show up on the MRI. He continues to be limited in practice this week after clearly playing hurt on Sunday. I have a hard time believing his ankle is any better this week, but clearly he can be effective even while hobbled. Ultimately, Shady is definitely a fade in cash games. Personally, I’m avoiding him altogether, but I would understand if you were to slide him into a small share of tournaments as he’s the best goal line back on that team.Devin SingletaryThe final player on the DFS Week Four Injury Breakdowns list is Devin Singletary. Singletary practiced for the first time in more than a week on Friday, and is officially designated as questionable for Sunday. Singletary is in a tough spot coming back from a significant hamstring strain and now facing a stingy New England defense. The only upside here is that the Patriots are favored and Singletary is the de facto pass catching back for the Bills. As a result, I’m fading Singletary due to his long lay-off and the matchup.Those are the DFS Week Four Injury Breakdowns. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @FFStudentDoc for constant injury updates and look out for my final injury outlook on Sunday morning. Remember, this is your week! Good luck.THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.Upgrade to Premium Gold today!Featured Image via Football Schedule 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy Sports DFS Insider: Week Four Injury Analysis Edwin Porras 4 years ago written by Edwin Porras Before we get into the Week Four Injury Analysis, I want to remind you that as the season wears on, injuries will continue to mount and accurate analysis will be critical to set your DFS lineups. Check in with me throughout the season, and I’ll make sure to provide you with that critical injury analysis.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!The second thing is to remember to check back in throughout the week as well, as I’m constantly updating my injury reports.Now I’ll get into it. Aaron JonesJones is listed on the injury report with a shoulder injury. I don’t anticipate this being a problem as a running back unless the pain is extreme. I’ll provide more updates as soon as possible for all Thursday night players, but I’m not too worried about Jones as of Wednesday morning. Jamaal WilliamsI’m mildly concerned about players any time they’re on the injury report with a neck issue. The neck is home base for the spine and nerves, so any time there is a disruption there, problems can start showing up downstream at the arms and hands. Hopefully this is a blip on the radar, but check for my updates on Williams heading into Thursday. Alshon JefferyJeffery had a full practice this week and is looking to suit up on Thursday against the Packers. This is obviously good news as they are in serious need of pass catchers due to attrition. I’m thinking about Jeffery as an option in the showdown slate as long as he doesn’t have any setbacks.Update: Jeffery is no longer on the injury report and should be ready to roll. If he struggles, it won’t be due to injury.Julian EdelmanEdelman took a shot to the right side of the ribs as two defenders dove at him last week. In true Patriots fashion, they make it more confusing than necessary listing him with a “chest/ribs” injury. Nevertheless, Edelman’s injury is to the right side of his ribs. His x-rays are negative for cartilage and bone damage, which is a good sign but as you know by now, that’s half the story. Rib injuries can be extremely painful and Edelman’s status for Sunday is truly in question as of now. Additionally, the Patriots are excellent at finding different ways to beat their opponent, so even if he plays, there’s no telling how productive he’ll be. To summarize, I’m fading Edelman in this matchup against a decent Bills defense because of his pain and the Patriots potential game plan.Update: Edelman was limited in practice this week. His status is unclear, but even if he goes, I’m fading him against a good Bills defense and the Patriots ability to win without him.T.Y. HiltonIt seems that Week Three was a time for players to prove me wrong. I was fading Hilton due to this quad injury, so of course he goes on to be very productive before being ruled out. I’m fading him again this week though as (physiologically) there is no way his quad is any better off by Week Four. I’m willing to live with another big week as his chance for re-injury is through the roof.Update: Hilton did not practice on Wednesday. It’s not looking good for him this week.LeSean McCoyWell, here we are again. I’ll cop to the fact that I was aggressively fading McCoy last Sunday before kickoff. So of course, he ends up having a good fantasy day. Regardless, I don’t regret the decision. He was clearly limited by the ankle before eventually being ruled out for the entire fourth quarter. This week I’m going to watch his practice reports like a hawk, and if he continues to be limited, I’ll likely fade him again. Remember, process over results.Update: McCoy practiced in full on Thursday and will likely be a full-go on Sunday. This is the exact pattern he followed last week when I faded him, but even though he gutted it out he was clearly limited. If you’re feeling lucky, McCoy is a contrarian play for tournaments in a world where Darrel Williams is popular.Damien WilliamsIt’s not looking good for Shady’s teammate to suit up in Week Four. It seems that Williams is dealing with a true bone contusion, which can be extremely painful and slow to heal. I’ll give you more updates as they come this week, but don’t expect to see him out there this week.Update: Don’t expect to see him on Sunday. Devin SingletarySingletary is still considered “day to day” but he has a realistic chance to play on Sunday as hamstring injuries on average cause one to three missed games. Bookmark my author page so you can stay up to date on Singletary, and every other players’ status for Sunday. Update: Singletary did not practice again on Wednesday. Hamstring injuries are finicky this way and as of today, I’m looking for different options.Update: Singletary was a participant in practice Friday, but the concern is that he missed all of last week. Jumping straight into a game against the Pats with a fresh injury is too risky for me in cash games, but I would consider him in tournaments as the Bills are expected to be trailing. Mid-week Additions and UpdatesThose are the Week Four Injuries to monitor. Feel free to connect with me personally here and check windailysports.com for expert analysis and DFS lineup advice. Chris Godwin Godwin did not practice on Wednesday. Although there’s no need to panic just yet, check back with me later on in the week as more information becomes available.Update: We can all exhale as Godwin practiced on Friday. He’s still a game time decision so check back with me on Sunday. Calvin Ridley Ridley did not practice on Wednesday with a hip injury, but he was back at practice on Thursday and will likely be active against the Titans. Check back with me for more updates on Ridley. I’m fading him as of Friday.THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. 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