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Welcome to the Week 8 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.Let’s dig in to the data!Wide Receiver TargetsBefore we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. Every single player in the top targets for Wide Receivers this week outperformed their previous 4 week target average. One of th...
The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
I have to believe that despite Davante Adams being the most expensive player on the slate and a poor week 1 performance from three-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, the Packers QB will be the chalk for showdown captain. The Lions secondary is now without Jeff Okudah (again) and there’s a lot of new faces on a team that in Week 1 only had to contend with Jimmy Garoppolo. Rodgers is poised for a bounceback game at home on prime time — his favorite time to shine. There’s probably enough value in the Lions secondary receiving options to warrant using Rodgers at captain and just finding ways to fit Adams and some bargain pieces.
Packers notes: Rostering Rodgers/Adams somewhere in your six slots is the priority here, and Randall Cobb ($3K captain/$2K flex) offers perhaps the best value among the other skills positions for the Packers. Marques Valdez-Scantling saw eight targets in Week 1, but I’m still more interested in Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan as the most important offensive weapons not named “Davante.” Tonyan hasn’t traditionally done as much work between the 20s and has done most of his eating in the red zone, but a new game plan for confusing a relatively weak nickel/LB corps means he could see a few extra check-down targets this week. I’d also expect the touches and targets for Jones to at least double what he saw in Week 1 (five carries, two targets), but the new Lions base defensive scheme could be vulnerable to a big day from Jones, since there’s just three down linemen, two outside linebackers and two off-ball, “inside” LBs — more of a 5-2 front with the two edge players standing up instead of having hands in the dirt. For that reason, we could see A.J. Dillon used more this week, but he only played 16 snaps in Week 1.
Lions notes: If we ignore the running games altogether, there’s a clear path to getting Jared Goff with T.J. Hockenson and a value WR along with Rodgers/Adams if we take a shot on Cobb at captain, but that’s more of a longshot build. With the injuries to Lions WRs Tyrell Williams (out, concussion) and Khalif Raymond (thigh, questionable) the smart move might be to eliminate the always risky Goff from our builds and focus on Hockenson along with cheap WRs Quintez Cephus (six targets in Week 1) and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (3-50-0 on four targets in his debut). D’Andre Swift is perhaps the most dynamic player in the Lions offense and was a target monster in Week 1` (8-65-1 on 11 targets to go along with 39 rushing yards), but he’s questionable despite being expected to suit up in the contest. Former Packer RB Jamaal Williams had solid Week 1 as well, finishing with 8-56-0 receiving on nine targets and racking up 54 rushing yards on just nine carries. If the Packers jump out to a big lead like the 49ers did in Week 1, we could see similar totals in the MNF game script.
Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which are both weak and don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 49-point game total.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Play too much Jared Goff. He’s not that good, and we know this.
Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 14 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
This contest sports one of the lower projected game totals of the Week 14 slate, with the Rams the betting favorite at -240 and 24.75 projected points.
The chalk is leaning toward Jared Goff and away from Cam Newton, who is questionable with an abdomen injury that he played through last week en route to a 45-0 drubbing of the Chargers. His practice snaps have been capped in consecutive weeks because of the injury, but he’s fully expected to play on Thursday night.
Both teams are expected to lean more heavily on their running games this week as both pass defenses have been stifling over the past few weeks. The Rams DST is certainly an option for builds, but the opportunistic Patriots DST strikes me as a possible contrarian play up top, as we’ve seen the Rams QB get a little kooky and turn the ball over in the past.
Top corners from both teams (Stephen Gilmore for the Pats and Jalen Ramsey for the Rams) could impact the effectiveness of the opposing passing game, but Ramsey is unlikely to match up exclusively against one of the Pats WRs – since they don’t have a true No. 1. Gilmore will likely be on Robert Woods, since Cooper Kupp lines up in the slot quite a bit. Ownership will end up being pretty close for these two, with a slight recency bias going to Woods (double-digit target consistency over the past three games) – so Kupp might end up being the better value.
Playing both Kupp and Woods together with Goff doesn’t seem like a viable option, though I wouldn’t scold you for crafting one 1/10 GPP lineups that way. For the Pats, I’m most interested in Jakobi Meyers because of his PPR strengths, though he’s made just 15 catches over the past four games since his 12-reception party against the Jets. But the price on Damiere Byrd is obnoxiously low for some reason, and he’ll be in a few of my builds for sure.
As for the running game, we’ve got healthy committees for both teams that complicate the touch distribution, with Cam Akers heading the Rams backfield and Damien Harris leading the charge for the Patriots pounding style. Sophomore talent Darrell Henderson, Jr. is a sneaky play if you’re fading Akers, and there’s always the possibility that capable veteran Malcom Brown gets a few goal line carries and in crunch time. Brown is super cheap on DK and could be worth using in the CPT role if you want to stack the high-upside position players.
The Patriots usually just play the hot hand at RB, but Harris should begin s the early down pounder while James White fills in on third down and obvious passing situations. Sony Michel is finally healthy, so Bill Belichick could throw a monkey wrench into the mix by tapping him for a few additional carries or giving him a lead role if Harris fumbles. Coach is not a big fan of fumbles.
Tight ends won’t likely play a big role between the 20s, but we could see either Rams TE notch some red zone targets and sneak in for a TD. But both Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett would be final lineup construction pieces for me rather than core builds.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Feel confined to a classic narrative this week. Kickers and DSTs are again in play with some of the true defensive playmakers on these teams and both QBs are turnover prone.
DO: Make Damien Harris a big part of your builds. It could blow up if the Rams really make a point of stopping him, but I don’t see Belichick getting away from what has worked for them.
DON’T: Expect a high-scoring game. Both coaches have engineered these teams to win battles, but neither is especially interested in getting into a shootout.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 11 NFL DFS contests!
While there are viable showdown builds that feature Bucs WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Tom Brady will be the chalk at captain on Monday night, largely because he spreads the ball around quite a bit. Evans was targeted a season-high 11 times last week, while Godwin has yet to receive fewer than six targets in any game he’s suited up for this season. Embattled egomaniac and HOA member Antonio Brown was targeted eight times last week in his second game with the team, so he’s another WR who could make an impact.
The Rams DST could be the best contrarian punt option to directly challenge the “Tom Brady smashes in typical fashion” narrative, since we’ve seen a disruptive Aaron Donald and this unit post double-digit DK point totals in four of the last six games.
Jared Goff is certainly an option as well, but the three-headed Rams rushing attack presents a difficult situation to parse for fantasy purposes. Goal line work that typically goes to a healthy Darrell Henderson, Jr. was handled by Malcolm Brown (two rushing TDs on six carries) in Week 10, and Cam Akers finally saw some work between the 20s with 10 carries and a modest 38 rushing yards. The Bucs stingy run defense also complicates the deployment of Rams RBs – but it also helps to reduce their ownership, so picking the right one (just like picking the right Bucs pass-catcher) could be the key to smashing the slate.
On the Bucs side, we’ve got two explosive RBs, with Ronald Jones II the clear RB1 and Leonard Fournette acting as a change-of-pace runner and an elevated role in passing down work. It doesn’t matter which back you use – you could even use both – but whatever back you choose should reflect the obvious correlation plays for both teams.
As for the other Rams position players, I usually lean more heavily toward Robert Woods for his possession attributes and larger snap share, but Cooper Kupp and his elevated price could make him the preferred option in GPPs this week. I’m also interested in Tyler Higbee, as frequently targeting the Rams TE it could be a way for Goff to neutralize the pass rush.
And speaking of TEs, the Bucs have two good ones in Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, both of whom receive red zone targets and make for more affordable options.
It’s a week where an expertly constructed single-entry lineup could see tons of success, but multiple entries are the way to go if you’re hell-bent on coming close to finding the golden ratio of showdown perfection and taking down a huge GPP.
DON’T: Be afraid to get a little different with your builds. Tom Brady will be massive chalk on FD, and last night’s winning lineup didn’t have Patrick Mahomes (90% owned) or Tyreek Hill (21.5 FD points), even though both had solid games.
DO: Follow a narrative that makes sense. If you’re committed to a rare Brady bust, feel free to get the Rams DST in there.
DON’T: Forget about Bucs kicker Ryan Succop – who’s had double digit totals in four of his last six games.
Welcome to my preview for Saturday DFS Week 16. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all three games on Saturday. Are you ready for some Saturday DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings.
Please join Phil Naessens and I as we break down the Saturday slate on the Win Daily Podcast
The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 53 in total and is down to 49 from Sunday. The spread has also jumped from -1 Houston to -3 Houston. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2016 NFL season, there have been 14 games where the closing over/under line moved four points lower than the opening over/underline. In these games, the under performed better, going 9-5 (64.3%). Game totals went under the line by an average of 2.4 points.
From a quick glance Deshaun Watson ($7,000) and Jameis Winston ($6,900) look like the clear cut best quarterbacks on the slate. Watson is averaging 23.9 fantasy points per game and has essentially all his weapons at his disposal. He has also had 13 rushing attempts for 76 yards over the past two weeks. Watson is a great option for a cash game, but there is a chance that he may not necessarily explode in this matchup. The Tampa Bay defense has been much better over the past month. Over the past four weeks, they rank tenth-best versus the QB position in terms of fantasy points allowed. Patriots rank ninth for some perspective. This improvement has a lot to do with the improved play of Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean via Pro Football Focus. Since Week 10, Dean has the No. 2 coverage grade during that time (91.0), allowing just 33.3% of targets to be completed into his coverage, while Davis ranks eighth with a coverage grade of 81.1 and his 11 forced incompletions lead the league during that time period. Dean and Davis bring two physical corners to the outside of the Bucs’ secondary.
Winston seems like the much better GPP play because of the fact that he will be without both Evans and Godwin. He has a better matchup and has essentially been lights out at home. The Texans have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the quarterback position over the past four weeks and rank third-worst overall on the season. Winston outside of Week 1 versus SF has scored at least 21 fantasy points in every single home game he has started. The lack of weapons is concerning but Winston has already come out and said he wants to get his TEs involved. Over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Perhaps Bruce Arians will build his offensive gameplan around Cameron Brate ($3,500) and O.J. Howard ($4,000).
It’s also worth mentioning that at the price the Texans ($3,200) could be heavily owned versus the Buccaneers that has been a full-proof positive strategy with Winston leading the NFL in interceptions. However, the Buccanneers ($2,300) should not be overlooked because they have the ability to generate sacks. Shaq Barrett has tied Warren Sapp for the most sacks in a single season in Tampa Bay history and leads the NFL in sacks/quarterback hits. Tampa Bay has also scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of the last four weeks. Houston has scored more than just 15 fantasy points once this season. Get Buccaneers DST exposure in GPPs especially with ownership highly favoring Watson at quarterback.
The Texans have allowed the most receptions to running backs, the fourth-most targets, most receiving yards, most receiving touchdowns, and second-most red-zone targets. Overall over the past four weeks, Houston has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position. So can you trust the trifecta of Ronald Jones ($4,400), Peyton Barber ($3,900), and Dare Ogunbowale ($3,300)? Arians mentioned he wanted to see more of the running backs involved in the passing game. Unfortunately dissecting which back to trust is tough because over the past two weeks Jones has eight targets with five receptions, Barber has four targets with four receptions, and Ogunbowale has six targets with six receptions. The upside still lies with Jones who owns 10.3 yards per reception this season, but Barber should be mixed in GPPs. He made a nice play on Sunday so Arians could “reward” Barber with more looks.
For the Texans, the matchup is absolute brutal versus the third-ranked defense versus the running back position allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt at home (second-best). Carlos Hyde ($5,000) has rushed for 1,000 yards this season and the Texans do have a 26-point implied team total. Hyde just has seven carries inside the 5-yard line this season. Hyde is someone to get off this week. Rather chase the upside with a Buccaneers running back.
As I mentioned before over the past four weeks, the Texans rank third-worst versus the tight end position while ranking ninth-best versus wide receivers. Both Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight ends are worth rostering. The easiest fade is Breshad Perriman ($6,000). Coming off a three-touchdown game where he ranked fourth on the team in targets, do not chase the touchdowns in this situation. Justin Watson ($4,600) is cheaper and will probably end up being the better per dollar play to play at the wide receiver position.
As for the Texans, DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) is seeing Michael Thomas like usage in the passing game with eight targets every single week since Week 4. If you are going with Watson in cash, it just makes too much sense to pair him with Hopkins. I also love Will Fuller ($5,900) just because of the upside he brings to the Texans’ offense. Though the Buccaneers have been better versus the QB position, they still rank sixth-worst versus the wide receiver over the past four weeks. Also, Jordan Akins ($2,900) is a sneaky tight end play. Darren Fells ($3,000) has fallen behind Jordan Akins in terms of targets in recent weeks, but he remains Houston’s top tight end in terms of offensive snaps. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the fourth-worst team in terms of fantasy points allowed to the tight end position.
The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 38.5 in total and is down to 36.5 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com. Since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 273 games where the closing line favored the home team by 5.5 to 7.5 points. In these games, the team like New England won the game 201 times (73.6%).
Both the Bills and Patriots rank top-ten in terms of the fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Tom Brady ($5,200) is the cheapest quarterback on the slate and at home where he is averaging 20 DraftKings points per game, he should be considered for GPPs. The Bills allow the fifth-most passing attempts on the road this season and New England ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts per game. Josh Allen ($5,300) is also worth considering in GPPs that you can play naked as he could be in line for a huge game rushing the football.
There’s an argument to be made that the defenses on this slate are even better plays with the Patriots DST ($4,000) potentially having a slate-breaking upside. They have yet to score less than seven fantasy points at home this season. New England rarely turns the ball over at home, so the Bills DST ($2,900) is a thinner play.
The best running back play in this game has to be Devin Singletary ($5,500) for cash formats. Over the past month, Singletary has been averaging twenty-plus touches per game with usage as a receiver and runner averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. New England’s weaknesses are definitely more versus their run defense so Singletary could find a crease there in the defense. He also did not play in their Week 3 matchup versus the Patriots. Frank Gore ($3,400) rushed for over 100 yards for the one and only time this season when he played the Patriots on 17 attempts. The Patriots have also allowed the fifth-most receptions to the running back position over the past four weeks.
On the Patriots side, Sony Michel ($4,600) is nothing more than a GPP play, but he does have that three-touchdown upside especially at home. James White ($5,800) has seen at least ten targets in two of his last three games versus Buffalo and could see an expanded role in the passing game should Julian Edelman be any more limited.
Starting slot cornerback Jonathan Jones will miss this game which could create a great opportunity for Cole Beasley ($4,800) to have a nice day. Beasley had a season-high 12 targets last time he played NE for 75 yards. Other players to consider that could provide X-factors in this game are Mohamed Sanu ($3,800) and N’Keal Harry ($4,000). Sanu saw a team-high eight targets last week and Harry was playing ahead of Philip Dorsett ($3,100) and Jakobi Meyers ($3,100). If you want to get a weird look at Ben Watson ($2,700) who I know Phil loves this week as a contrarian play! Bills rank fifth-worst versus the tight end over the past four weeks.
Both the Rams and 49ers rank top-ten in terms of the most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. However, there is only one quarterback that I will be considering starting: Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500) that comes in cheaper than Jared Goff ($5,800). Goff traditionally struggles on the road especially against teams that pressure the quarterback. The 49ers rank third-best in the NFL in pressure rate by Pro Football Focus. Goff scored 2.12 fantasy points the last time he played SF. Garoppolo scored 14.12 points, but that was a game where Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin were the leading receivers.
Both defenses can pressure the quarterback, but I prefer the 49ers DST ($4,300) in a game that I project to be a 49ers’ onslaught.
Todd Gurley ($6,300) is a clear-cut option in cash games because the Rams are 100% convinced now on getting him as many touches as they can. He has averaged over 20 touches over the past three weeks. Raheem Mostert ($6,100) is also a trust-worthy option in cash games versus the Rams who just got torched on the ground by the Cowboys. The 49ers are second in the NFL in fantasy points scored for their running backs so you know that one of these running backs is going to be on a winning GPP lineup. I am looking at you Matt Breida ($3,800).
Neither Emmanuel Sanders ($5,500) or Deebo Samuel ($5,100) was heavily involved in the team’s first matchup versus the Rams, and Jalen Ramsey was not on LA. I do not expect either to be heavily shadowed by Ramsey, but both move around the offense and play out of the slot to see production. Obviously George Kittle ($6,500) has been on absolute fire and is the clear cut stacking option with Jimmy G.
As for the Rams options I am getting off the Tyler Higbee ($5,000) train with the return of Gerald Everett ($4,000). Besides the matchup is not great either for Higbee who will be drawing coverage from Jimmie Ward. According to Pro Football Focus, Ward is ranked as the 6th-best safety with an 85.0 overall grade on the year. He also has an 80.5 pass coverage grade and an 86.4 run defense grade. 49ers defensive coordinator came out and said on Higbee that, “We do have to be aware of where he is and understand that he’s not just a decoy, but he and Goff right now have a good relationship and they’re playing very well together.”
Robert Woods ($6,200) is still getting all of the targets in the Rams’ passing attack making him the presumed cash play, but I like utilizing Cooper Kupp ($6,500) in GPPs. Unlike Woods Kupp is no stranger to the end zone and the 49ers have allowed the second-most wide receiver touchdowns over the past two weeks.
Image via Keith Allison
A look back at some of the best performances from the Sunday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 12/2 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.
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With a couple of weeks before the World Fantasy Football Championship in Puerto Rico, Javy took down another tournament. This gives him five of the 80 spots in the WFFC. He isn’t the only Win Daily family member going as David Jones and Jason Mezrahi both have an entry. With seven of the 80 possible spots, Win Daily has a great chance to take the $1 million top prize. Good luck to the guys! If you want the ability to see how these three and the rest of our DFS experts are constructing their lineups, become a Premium member today!
David Jones took down another Showdown yesterday. I’ve lost track of how many he has won but it seems like a weekly occurrence.
As both guys had him as a value running back on the NFL DFS DraftKings Cheatsheet, Josh Jacobs was a good play on last night’s slate. Going up against the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium, Jacobs ran 17 times for 104 yards. Jacobs has been playing great in his first year in the NFL and is a solid choice any week this season.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Josh Jacobs is on his way to becoming AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. He hit the 1,000-yard mark early in the game and has five 100-yard rushing games this year. Expect Jacobs to continue dominating the ground game as the Raiders try to make a Wild Card spot.
Here is a snippet from the Sunday Night Positional Breakdown article from Brandon C. Williams. Bradley Beal had a strong night against the Clippers on the road as he went for 23 points, five rebounds, 11 assists, and two steals. He did not make a three-pointer and was just 7-of-19 from the field.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Beal has been an efficient scorer but has struggled shooting the past couple of games. He is one of the best players in the league with 28 points a night and 7.3 assists, which rank in the Top 11 in each category. With that type of production, expect a solid game every time Beal is on the court.
This is what Scott Engel had to say on his NFL DFS Values and Punt Plays From the King article. Jared Goff had a solid night against the Arizona Cardinals going 32-for-43 with 424 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This was his best game since facing the Cincinnati Bengals over a month ago.
Outlook for the rest of the season: This was exactly what the doctor ordered for Goff. The Rams had the passing game going early as Goff completed 74 percent of his passes. The only reason he stopped was due to the game getting out of hand. Expect solid games out of him for the rest of the regular season and make a run towards one of the NFC Wild Card spots.
The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct QB on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!
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Sam Darnold has been on a roll the past three weeks throwing just one interception. He has not faced the stiffest of competitions with the Giants, Redskins, and Raiders in that span. The offense is clicking and facing another weak opponent in Cincinnati. Going up against a Bengals team that The Bengals allow 251 yards per game and are in a position to lose this game to secure the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Expect a big day at a great price for Darnold.
This is the game where Goff shuts the critics up because he has to. People are now asking the question if he was worth the $110 million guaranteed money and coming off a bad game on Monday night. However, the Arizona Cardinals are the perfect remedy for this Rams offense. Goff is completing 62% of his passes this season and the Arizona Cardinals allow 297.5 yards a game through the pass. The team also allows the most passing touchdowns, passing first downs and quarterback ratings in the league. This is the perfect opportunity for Goff to correct a lot of his mistakes made in the past month.
This might come as a shocker but Ryan Tannehill has the second-highest completion percentage this season with 72.1%. The only concern is his yards per game are just over 200, but the Colts give up 34 passing attempts a game and allow 235 passing yards a game. On a shorter slate due to the Thanksgiving games, there might be value going outside the norm for the quarterback position.
After getting humiliated against the Baltimore Ravens last week on a national level, expect Aaron Rodgers to come out firing in New York. He doesn’t turn the ball over as he has thrown just two interceptions. Rodgers has weapons and a running game to mix in some play-action passes. This Giants defense is not great against the passing attack either. The Giants allowed 260 yards per game and has given 18 touchdowns.
Carson Wentz has looked like he has taken a step back lately but the injuries to skill position players for the Eagles seem to continue. As of this writing, Zach Ertz missed practice with a hamstring injury and Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffrey were limited. If Wentz has two of the three then he should be great. The Dolphins do not pose much of threat defensively to stop a passing attack that the Eagles can have even without big-name targets. Miami doesn’t apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks as they recorded just 14 sacks so far. They also give up a quarterback rating of 106.8 which ranks as the second-most in the NFL. Expect a nice bounce-back performance from Wentz.
Nick Foles has looked like the quarterback the Jags were expecting after returning from injury. In the two games back, he has 47 and 48 attempts so expect the gameplan to continue to be throwing the football. The Bucs are one of the worst teams against the pass in the NFL so this matchup hugely favors Foles. Tampa allows 290 yards a game through the air and is susceptible to huge plays as they have given up 10 throws of at least 40 yards. Foles should be a high-demand player in a lot of lineups.
If you look at the numbers of Tom Brady, it makes you shake your head. He has the same completion percentage (62.2) as Mitchell Tribusky and a QBR of 55.8, meaning he is slightly above average this season. In his last four games, Brady threw for 237.5 yards a game and just four touchdowns. The offense isn’t counting on him to play a big role. Both the Texans and Patriots run the ball 27.5 times a game so expect the time of possessions to be inflated which could keep Brady on the sidelines.
Philip Rivers has not been completing passes at a high percentage lately as in the last two weeks, he has completed just 54.2%. Going up against the Denver Broncos defense is no easy order for him. The Broncos allow the fifth-fewest passing yards at 207.5 yards a game. They also allow the fourth-fewest passing first downs so moving the chains is going to be difficult as well. Expect another struggling effort for Rivers as his upside isn’t great in this matchup.
This has the making of an ugly performance for Baker as it seems a lot will be going on. This is the Steelers first time to “get even” with the Browns since the brawl a few weeks ago. Nothing like that should happen but the Steelers will be playing with extra motivation. OBJ is questionable at the time of this writing and a limited team could struggle in this environment. Baker struggles in both road games and the fourth quarter so don’t expect much out of him in this game.
Aaron Rodgers over 277.5 passing yards and Daniel Jones over 241.5 passing yards.
Aaron Rodgers should easily eclipse this with the reasons I mentioned in his section above. Daniel Jones has the big arm and Green Bay allows 238 yards of passing a game so expecting Danny Dimes to do slightly better isn’t that much of a difficult decision.
Week 9 in the NFL is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!
David also won back-to-back GPPs!
There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning.
Stud Quarterback: Matthew Stafford ($7,900 FD)
I don’t typically like Stafford on the road, but the matchup is just too good. The Raiders are tied with the Falcons for second most receiving touchdowns given up this year. They have allowed 285 yards per game to wideouts. They also average a very high 8.6 yards per catch allowed. Stafford has been sharp lately, throwing seven touchdowns in the last two games. Factor in that the Lions run game does not exist, so the Detroit coaching staff is going to ask Stafford to do more with his arm. We could see another three touchdown game out of Stafford and I wouldn’t be surprised. Make sure to stack him with one of his receiving options in your NFL DFS contests.
Stud Pivots: Aaron Rodgers, Jameis Winston (He does have the two highest priced receivers on the slate, that’s a good sign), Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen
Value Quarterback: Mitchell Trubisky ($6,500 FD)
Here we go… This guy is getting absolutely trashed for a bad game last week. They are literally burning his jersey in the street in Chicago. This is a massive overreaction in my opinion. The Bears are not going to bench Trubisky, in fact quite the opposite. They are going to let this guy get through the good times and the bad times on the field. I know that Coach Nagy has commented that Trubisky needs to figure it out fast or they will have to make some tough decisions, but I am not that worried. Trubisky is feeling the heat this week and if he ever needs to bust out of a slump it is this Sunday. So why do I like him? His price is way too low for starters. He also gets to go against one of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Eagles.
Two games ago Trubisky put up 251 yards and two touchdowns against a stout Saints defense. Two games before that’s he threw for three touchdowns against the Redskins. He can produce. Just because he didn’t find the end zone last week are we supposed to think he will never throw a touchdown again? Of course not. He has capable receivers in Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel and even Tarik Cohen. Is this a safe play? No, it is not. Is it a great GPP play? Yes, it is! If Mitchell can get us 20 points (I think he does) then we are in prime position to make big bucks in NFL DFS this Sunday.
Value QB Pivots: Derek Carr
Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($9,700 FD)
Do I even need to write this guy up? He just put up 25 FanDuel points on the one of, if not the best, defenses in the league. He is basically the entire offense and I think he wins MVP this year (sorry Russell Wilson). He will get all the rush attempts he can handle and also be targeted like a WR1. The Titans have a decent defense, but not anywhere close to what he just faced in San Fransisco. CMC already has 10 touchdowns in just seven games. He is the number one running back you should target every week in NFL DFS.
Stud Pivots: Dalvin Cook (LOVE HIM vs KC, RB1B this week to CMC), Nick Chubb
Mid RB: Derrick Henry ($6,800 FD)
The Carolina Panthers have given up a league high 12 rushing touchdowns this season (Tevin Coleman helped boost that number last Sunday). Derrick Henry does not split time and is an absolute monster when he gets the ball. He should be the first guy the Titans give the pigskin to in the Red Zone and I don’t think the Panthers are going to be able to stop him. I am predicting Henry for over 100 yards and two touchdowns. At $6,800 on FanDuel he is a NFL DFS bargain.
UPDATE: Lock in Jaylen Samuels at $5,000 on FD
Pivots: Le’Veon Bell, Austin Ekeler, Jordan Howard
Note: Phillip Lindsay popped up with wrist injury, so if he were to miss the game Royce Freeman is a good play
Note: Aaron Jones has a shoulder injury, if he is out lock in Jamaal Williams
I will update again closer to Sunday. Be sure to check back.
Stud WR: Chris Godwin ($8,200 FD)
He has an elite matchup against a bad Seattle secondary. Last week he let us down, but still had eight points (which doesn’t kill you in cash games). The three weeks before that he got 20, 28, 35 FanDuel points and won a lot of us a lot of money. Jameis Winston should have to throw it here (because I expect them to be playing from behind) and the NFL DFS sites have adjusted the Bucs receivers accordingly. This week Chris Godwin leads the Bucs receiving core with over 100 yards and a touchdown. He has not had two consecutive games under ten fantasy points this year and I don’t expect that trend to end against the Seahawks, who give up and average of 273 receiving yards a game.
Stud Pivots: Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Lockett
Mid WR: Allen Robinson ($7,200 FD)
He is far and away the number one offensive option for the Bears. He has not been targeted under seven times the entire season. I would lock him in cash games and play him in GPPs for his high ceiling against the terrible Eagles defense. They tried to make trades to improve their corners on Tuesday but couldn’t get anyone to bite, which means they are going to be bad the rest of the season. With Mitchell Tribusky feeling the heat in Chicago he is going to highly target his best guy. Love him in NFL DFS this week.
Mid WR Pivots: Alshon Jeffrey, Tyrell Williams, Robby Anderson, John Brown
Value WR: Robby Anderson ($6,200 FD)
It feels like a Robby Anderson week. I called the last one on the Win Daily podcast and I am doing it again here. The South Florida native returns to Miami as the number one deep threat for the New York Jets. We all know the Dolphins are the worst defense in the league and targeting them every single week has worked all season, so why would we stop now? The was to attack them is through the air, not so much on the ground. Robby is a boom or bust guy and could have a bad game if Sam Darnold sees any more spooky ghosts on the field, however I think he can man up and launch a few deep to Anderson against a team that literally wants to lose. I will punt Anderson at a “friends and family” game in Miami in my NFL DFS lineups.
Value WR Pivots: DeVante Parker
I am expecting more value to pop up so keep checking back or follow me on twitter @tenaciousdjones. I will tweet out whenever I make an update.
Darren Waller ($6,800 FD)
He is the most targeted tight end in the NFL and gets a nice matchup against the Lions (ranked 23rd against the TE) at home. He is extraordinarly safe with high upside.
Tight End Pivots: Hunter Henry, T.J. Hockenson, Cameron Brate (if OJ Howard out)
I will tweet out when there are updates. Be sure to follow me @tenaciousdjones on Twitter so you don’t miss out!
Matt Stafford is my favorite quarterback this week so of course I think he gets over 300 yards here (See my write up above). I know Carr has been efficient this season but 275 is a tall order for a guy I don’t have much trust in. This could change is Josh Jacobs is ruled out (because he will be forced to throw more), but until that news breaks I am sticking with this as my MKF pick.
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Week 8 in the NFL is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
Note: We have two very obvious high priced quarterbacks in great spots this week.
Stud Quarterback: Deshaun Watson ($8,400 FD)
Last week Aaron Rodgers torched the Oakland Raiders and now it is Deshaun’s Watson turn. The Raiders have given up 16 receiving touchdowns this year which is tied for second worst in the NFL. The Houston Texans have thrown for 13 touchdowns (we have also seen several dropped aka Fullered) which is tied for fifth in the league. Watson should not have trouble at home this Sunday dishing it to Hopkins. If the air game isn’t working (it should) then Watson is one of the most capable scrambling QBs in the league. He is an easy NFL DFS play, but he will also be a popular one. He will not be the reason you lose this week.
Stud Quarterback: Russell Wilson ($8,600 FD)
The Seahawks are next in line to embarrass the Atlanta Falcons who have completely given up on the season. They just traded away Sanu and lost Matt Ryan (questionable) to an ankle injury. You can beat the Dirty Birds however you want, through the air or on the ground. Wilson is an MVP candidate with wheels. He should will be able to run whenever a play breaks down and launch a few bombs to Lockett and Metcalf when the Falcons defensive backfield breaks down again. Another easy play, your only worry is if Chris Carson scores multiple times. Having Wilson on one team and Carson on another would be a good hedge. One of them is going nuts.
Stud QB Pivot: Tom Brady
Mid QB: Matt Stafford ($7,700 FD)
Stafford looked sharp last week against a tough Vikings squad throwing for 364 yards and four touchdowns. Matt tends to play better at home and gets a easier defense in the Giants this weekend. The New York football Giants give up 8.9 yards per reception, which is second worst in the NFL. Stafford has great receiving options with Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr, T.J. Hockenson and now Ty Johnson. He is my favorite mid tier NFL DFS quarterback this week.
Mid QB Pivot: Josh Allen (I always have a share, I am not going to miss the big game and the Eagles have been giving up a lot of big games lately.
Punt QB: Matt Schaub (if Matt Ryan is out)
Stud RB: Leonard Fournette ($7,700 FD)
I am going back to him this week. He has only got in the end zone one time this season, which is bizarre. He has 645 all purpose yards in his last four games. In the same time frame he has 101 rushes and 18 targets. When he gets in the end zone, he will officially break the slate. The Jaguars take on the NY Jets, who just gave up three rushing touchdowns to Sony Michel, in Jacksonville on Sunday. He is my favorite spend up at RB in NFL DFS.
Stud Pivots: Chris Carson, Le’Veon Bell
Note: Todd Gurley is in an obvious spot, I just don’t trust him
Cheap RB: Ty Johnson ($5,200 FD)
Lock him in. He is now starting for the Detroit Lions and is a step up from Kerryon Johnson. The Giants are 28th worst against the run and 25th worst against the pass. Johnson can run as well as catch (four for four last week). He is going to exceed value and if he gets in the end zone a couple times you will have a hard time cashing without him. He is a main RB target in my NFL DFS lineups this week.
Pivots: Chase Edmonds (David Johnson is likely to miss, tough matchup but he is too cheap)
Stud WR: DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200 FD)
I mentioned under Deshaun Watson why I want to target the Raiders defensive backfield. Hopkins has gotten targeted 12 times each of the last two games. With Will Fuller now injured, Hopkins is beyond the main focal point of his QB. I feel like we can finally get a real breakout game from the the elite Hopkins. I’m calling him to crush 100 yards and get in the end zone twice. He is set up to possibly be the highest scoring NFL DFS WR on the slate.
Stud Pivots: Michael Thomas (No Kamara would help), Cooper Kupp (expecting low ownership after last week let down),
Mid WR: Kenny Golladay ($6,700 FD)
He is my top receiver to stack with Matt Stafford against the Giants. I think the Lions win this game and look impressive doing it. The Giants are bad against receivers and this week they go back to Golladay, instead of Marvin Jones.
Update: Mid WR Pivots: Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett, D,J. Chark
Value WR: Courtland Sutton ($6,000 FD)
Emmanuel Sanders just got traded and Sutton is the wide receiver of the future for the Broncos. If he doesn’t get double digit targets in this game I will be shocked. The Colts have given up 11 touchdowns this season (not terrible) and give up 8 yards per catch to receivers (not good). Joe Flacco is going to have to force the ball to Sutton here if they they want a chance to win. Sutton knows he has to step up now the Sanders is going, and this will be his first attempt at doing it. He is too cheap in NFL DFS.
Value WR Pivots: Golden Tate, John Brown, Tyrell Williams, Calvin Ridley (like him more if Ryan plays), Kenny Stills
Milli-Maker A.J. Brown, Adam Humphries, Jaron Brown
Tight End: Austin Hooper ($6,600 FD)
Whether it is Matt Ryan at QB or Matt Schaub I still like Hooper as my top tight end. He has already proven what he can do with Ryan however I think his upside is just as high with Schaub. If the latter is in he will be checking it down more, as he doesn’t have the arm that Ryan possess. This should mean more targets for Hooper. The Falcons play the Seahawks who ranked 30th in covering the TE. We also have to consider the fact that Sanu was just traded to the Patriots which also helps Hooper’s case to get more targets. In a game where the Falcons will need to be throwing the second half, I like one of the best tight ends in the league, Austin Hooper.
Tight End Pivots: Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, Jared Cook (if healthy AND Brees is back), Cameron Brate (if O.J. Howard misses)
Week 7 in the NFL is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
Stud Quarterback: Josh Allen ($7,700 FD; $6,500 DK)
One of my favorite quarterbacks just got the week off to prepare for the dreadful Dolphins at home. Perhaps the Dolphins’ best chance to win a game this season came and went last week when the Redskins visited Miami after the Dolphins had a bye week. I love what the Bills are doing this year and there is no way they lose this game. Allen is a dual-threat QB who threw for a combined 455 yards and five touchdowns while running for a combined 230 yards and two touchdowns in two games against the Dolphins last season. If he can get close to his average against a team that is worse than they were last year, we are all in for a big day. Miami allows 9.7 yards to opposing receivers (dead last in the NFL) and they are right there with the Bengals for worst defense against the rush. In short, Allen will be in my main NFL DFS lineup this Sunday.
Stud Quarterback: Jared Goff ($7,800 FD; $6,200 DK)
I love him this week. He goes up agains the Falcons, who are just terrible covering the pass. Goff has plenty of options to throw to and they come to Atlanta with a questionable running back situation. Over the last three weeks, the quarterback facing the Falcons has won the milli-maker (twice on DraftKings, once on FanDuel). Goff bounces back in a big way in Atlanta.
QB Pivots: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson
Note: I am really very high on the two guys listed above (Allen, Goff) but I will list a couple high risk punts for you below.
Update: Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton, Jacoby Brissett
Update: Daniel Jones (coming off him, looks like rain in NY)
Stud RB: Leonard Fournette ($7,900 FD, $7,000 DK)
The Bengals have given up over 200 more yards than any other team on the ground this year (it should be noted the Dolphins have had a bye week). They have allowed a league-high nine rushing touchdowns. Fournette has been coming on strong the last few weeks. He has gotten over 20 carries in each game the last three weeks and he is more involved in the passing attack. We love three-down backs, remember? In Fournette’s last three games, he has exactly 500 all-purpose yards. This has also been against formidable defenses in the Saints, Panthers and Broncos (to a lesser extent). He should be in for another 25 touches on Sunday and is an easy pick for my top NFL DFS RB of the week.
Stud Pivots: Saquan Barkley (like him more if it is raining in NY), Dalvin Cook
Mid RB: Josh Jacobs ($6,700 FD; $5,000 DK)
He just seems too cheap for a guy that is not splitting carries and coming off a bye week. He will also contribute a bit in the passing game, especially if Ty Williams is out. The Raiders should realize that you want to keep Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense off the field, so running the ball is a good way to do that. The Packers are allowing 4.9 yards per carry and have given up seven rushing touchdowns in six games. I can see Jacobs touching the ball here about 20 times and paying off that low NFL DFS salary. I will admit I am not 100% sold on Jacobs this week but he looks like the best of the bunch. I never love starting a guy from the West Coast on a 1PM ET game time, but this week I am willing to make an exception. Update: Ty Williams is out, making me like Jacobs even more.
Mid Pivots: Chris Carson, Marlon Mack. Derrick Henry
RB Punts: Frank Gore, Chase Edmonds (if David Johnson sits), Lat Murray is now in play with Kamara being ruled out. Tough matchup, but cheap price and will get RB1 workload. I will have a few shares but he won’t be near my main lineup.
Stud WR: Cooper Kupp ($7,800 FD; $7,400 DK)
The Falcons are getting roasted by everyone and stacking against them is making money for a host of people. I am not going to try to fix what isn’t broke. Kupp is my (and Goff’s) favorite receiver. Last week his targets were down (six) but prior to that he got 17, 15 and 12 targets and scored over 20 FanDuel points in every game. If he does not get over 10 targets and a touchdown, I will be shocked. There is no way this guy puts up a dud performance. Rams HC Sean McVay is the kind of coach that attacks what works, and against the Falcons, that’s throwing the ball. Goff is going to bounce back from a bad performance against one of the league’s best defenses (49ers) and throw for over 300 yards. Kupp should be the wide receiver that benefits the most.
Note: If you decide to fade Kupp ( I wouldn’t) you should put another Rams WR on your team.
Stud Pivots: T.Y Hilton, Keenan Allen, Robert Woods
Mid WR: John Brown ($5,900 FD; $5,500 DK)
A speedy wide receiver against the Dolphins that fits perfectly with my top quarterback? Yes, please! Brown has been a fantastic addition to the Bills, as he has become more reliable in his featured role. He has only scored once this year, but there is not a better spot for a get-right game than against the Dolphins. Take into account they have had two weeks off to game plan and the matchup gets even juicier for the Bills and Brown.
Update: Mid WR Pivots: D.J. Chark (like more than John Brown now), Brandin Cooks
Value WR: Tyler Boyd ($5,600 FD; $5,600 DK)
What do we do when there is blood on the streets? We clean it up! This is of course in reference to the stinker that Boyd put up last week against the Ravens, but hey I called it. You only play Boyd at home. It is very simple. Seven of his eight touchdowns in 2018 came at home. This year at home, he has over 10 receptions in both games along with a touchdown. Boyd has put up at least 17 FanDuel points at home. Love him as a cheap NFL DFS play this week.
Update: WR Value Pivots: Calvin Ridley, Auden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald
Update: DraftKings Milli-Maker Darts: Allen Lazard, Darius Slayton (if not raining), Zay Jones
Tight End: Evan Engram ($6,800 FD; $6,500 DK)
The Giants confirmed on Friday that Engram will return to the starting lineup. We profit off the Cardinals every week and we are going to do it again Sunday. I am locking him in as my top NFL DFS tight end.
Tight End Pivots: Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Hunter Henry
I listed four defenses but I am very, very high on the Bills and 49ers.