Fantasy Football

Welcome to the Week 11 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

With Thanksgiving upon us, we’re officially in the home stretch folks.  Teams are going to start jockeying for playoff position in the coming weeks and the contenders and pretenders are both starting to show their true colors.  The Vikings were completely embarrassed this weekend and the Eagles eeked out another one.  The Ravens are starting to look like the real deal as well. 

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

With Chase out in Week 11, Tee Higgins was primed for a breakout performance.  Boy did he deliver.  Higgins was tied for the league lead in targets in Week 11 with 13 of them.  His 13 targets were the most he’s had this season, as were the 9 catches and 148 receiving yards.  The only thing he didn’t do right this weekend was finding the end zone.  He’ll look to continue with the good ways in Week 12 against the Titans. 

Davante Adams is heating up!  Adams was targeted 13 times in Week 11 and made the most out of them.  He finished the game with 7 catches for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He’s now broken the century mark in 3 straight and has 5 touchdowns over those games.  He’s on an absolute heater right now and his fantasy owners are finally reaping the benefits of drafting him early. 

This one is bittersweet.  Wan’Dale Robinson had the game of his young career, but it ended in misery.  He set career-highs in targets with 13, receptions with 9, and yards with 100.  When all was said and done though his season came to an end as he tore his ACL.  His future is bright though.  We’ll miss you kid!

Running Back Targets

Another week where the running backs were essentially MIA in the receiving game.  No running back was targeted more than 7 times this week.  We’ll focus on Tony Pollard here though.  Pollard was targeted just 6 times but he caught all 6 for 109 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns.  He was a huge reason the Cowboys were able to thoroughly dominate the Vikings this weekend.  Up next for him will be a date with the Giants on Turkey day. 

Tight End Targets

For just the second time this season, Pat Freiermuth had double-digit targets.  His 12 targets this weekend were a season-high and his 8 receptions tied a season-high.  With all that being said, the damage that he did was minimal as he only finished with 79 yards and no touchdowns. 

Is there a more fun tandem to watch than Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce?  Kelce had yet another monster game this weekend.  He turned his 10 targets into 6 catches, 115 yards, and 3 touchdowns!  His 3 touchdowns now give him 11 on the year.  Kelce continues to be one of the most dominant pass catchers in the game. 

Quarterback Target Share

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys had as dominant of a game as we’ve seen this season.  A lot of it had to do with how he used his pass-catchers. Nearly a third of all of his 30 passes went to his running backs.  With how well Pollard played, a bulk of those went to him. 

With the majority of his receiving corps out or getting injured mid-game, Patrick Mahomes went to old reliable often.  Nearly 50% of Patrick Mahomes passes went to his tight ends.  While Kelce got the majority of them, Jody Fortson and Noah Gray also got a handful of targets this weekend. 

Jalen Hurts only threw the ball 23 times this weekend, but 80% of those went to his wide receivers.  While Davonta Smith and A.J. Brown were the most heavily targeted, it was Quez Watkins that had arguably the most important catch as his went for a TD. 

Running Back Touches

After a couple of down weeks in regards to carries, the workhorse known as Derrick Henry returned in Week 11.  His 28 carries led all running backs this week.  He didn’t break 100 yards, but most importantly he found the end zone.  His TD game him 10 for the season, the fifth straight season he’s had double-digit rushing touchdowns.  Up next for the Titans will be the Bengals in what is essentially a neutral matchup for Henry. 

For the second consecutive week, Josh Jacobs had at least 20 carries. His 24 carries were the second most he’s had this season and the fifth time he’s had at least 20 this season.  He also broke the century mark with 109 yards on the ground.  He’s now had at least 100 rushing yards 4 times this season. 

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

Between David Montgomery and Justin Fields, the Bears ran a mostly run-type offense this week.  41 of their 60 plays were run plays and the bulk of those runs were Fields and Montgomery.  They combined for 35 carries in Week 11.

With Dameon Pierce having a down game and the Texans went with a pass-heavy offense.  They threw the ball more than 66% of the time this weekend.  The passing game didn’t do much better than the run game as the Texans lost pretty badly to the Commanders. 

Make sure to check out all of our NFL articles here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

Welcome to the Week 10 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Week 10 was filled with drama and great games.  What we witnessed in Buffalo between the Bills and Vikings may go down as the game of the year.  The comeback by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers vs. Dallas may be the comeback of the year.  And finally, the Eagles have lost so we no longer have a perfect team. 

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

If you still haven’t watched a replay of the ‘catch’ by Justin Jefferson, I highly recommend you take a few moments out of your day to go see it.  You won’t regret it!  Jefferson was tied for the lead league in targets this weekend with 16.  He was able to catch 10 of them for 193 yards and one touchdown.  The star receiver for the Vikings just continues to get better. 

The 16 targets were the most he’s had this season as were the 193 receiving yards.  He’s now gone over the 100-yard mark in 6 of his 9 games this season.  He’ll get a matchup with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11.

The other receiver to have 16 targets this week was on the other side of this game. Stefon Diggs corralled 12 of the 16 targets for 128 receiving yards.  The 12 catches were the most he’s had since Week 2 against the Titans.  Like Jefferson, Diggs has now surpassed the 100-yard mark in 6 of the 9 games he’s played this season. Next week he’ll look to keep up the momentum with a matchup vs. the Cleveland Browns. 

Was this the coming-out party for Ceedee Lamb?  Lamb had a career-high 15 targets on Sunday and boy did he make the most of them.  Lamb caught 11 of the 15 passes thrown his way and went for 150-yards and 2 touchdowns.  This was just the fifth 100-yard game for the third-year receiver and the first since Week 8 in 2021.   He’ll look to build off of this monster game in Week 11 vs. a Vikings team that is absolutely rolling right now. 

Running Back Targets

Austin Ekeler was the only running back even to sniff double-digit targets this weekend.  As has been the case in most weeks, Ekeler led the way with 12 targets this weekend.  He’s now had double-digit targets in 3 of his last 4 games.  While the targets were high, he failed to really do any meaningful damage with them as he caught 7 of them for just 39 yards.  Next week will be a tough matchup for the Chargers as they’ll play host to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Tight End Targets

Justin Jefferson wasn’t the only Vikings player to get targeted a whole bunch.  T.J. Hockenson led all tight ends this week with 10 targets.  Since joining the Vikings, he’s now been targeted a total of 19 times.  This week, he finished with an ok stat line of 7 catches and 45 yards.  Hock has now gone 5 consecutive games without finding the endzone, making him somewhat of a fantasy disappointment. 

Quarterback Target Share

Unlike the majority of recent weeks, more Dolphins players played a role in the passing the game this weekend.  While Hill was still the most heavily targeted Dolphins player, he was only targeted 6 times.  Running backs played a big part this weekend as nearly 40% of Tua’s passes this week went to the likes of Alec Ingold, Jeff Wilson, and Raheem Mostert. 

Justin Fields doesn’t throw often, but when he does, Cole Kmet is licking his chops.  Kmet was Fields most often used pass catcher this weekend and he did not disappoint.  His 7 targets led the Bears, as did his 2 receiving touchdowns and his 74 yards.  Kmet and Fields are just warming up and it’s going to be fun to continue to watch this tandem get more comfortable with each other. 

Kyler Murray essentially threw only to his receivers this weekend, and by receivers, I mean Rondale Moore and DeAndre Hopkins.  Moore and Hopkins accounted for 27 of Murray’s 35 passes this weekend. That’s a pretty centralized strategy if you ask me!

Running Back Touches

For just the second time this season, Saquon Barkley had more than 30 carries.  He set a season-high with 35 carries this weekend, 4 more than his previous best of 31.  He also had his second-most rushing yards this season with 152 yards.  The hot New York Giants will only go as far as Barkley will take them, and he’s trying his hardest to take them to the top!

Despite Chuba Hubbard returning from injury this week, D’Onta Foreman continued to be the main guy in Carolina as he carried the ball a season-high 31 times on Sunday.  He also rushed for a season-high 130 yards and found the endzone once.  Foreman owners had to be relieved after the absolute dud he put up in Week 9. 

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

As I mentioned above, D’Onta Foreman ran a ton this weekend.  This led the Panthers to go with a predominantly run-based offense this weekend as they ran close to 75% run plays vs. just 25% for passes.  I guess they have little faith in PJ Walker and his arm. 

On the other side of the playbook, we have the Jacksonville Jaguars.  While the masses gravitated to Travis Etienne this weekend, he was essentially irrelevant as he only ran the ball 11 times for 45 yards.  70% of the plays the Jaguars ran this weekend were passes as Trevor Lawrence threw the ball 40 times this weekend. 

Make sure to check out all of our NFL articles here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!