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DraftKings GPP

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” and it’s a great day to get ready for the Week 5 NFL DFS GPP slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.*Having said that, I saw a lot of lineups last week in the Discord strictly with the GPP article players. PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2021 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me ...

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

This is it folks, the final Showdown slate of the NFL season and although we have two of the season’s laughing stocks going head to head if Washington wins they win the division. What that means for us is that we don’t have to worry about the teams packing it in during the second half. There are however, a ton of injuries to key guys which will more than likely make this an ugly one. But enough talk let’s dig into Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia:

Chalk: Jalen Hurts $17,100

Pivot: Antonio Gibson $13,500

Contrarian #1: Logan Thomas $11,700

Contrarian #2: Jordan Howard/Boston Scott, $1,500/$2,100

Contrarian #3 Terry McLaurin $15,000

****Bonus Play**** Zack Ertz $6,900: He has not had a good year by any stretch but he is the ONLY tight end available for the Eagles. My only pause putting him up top is that it isn’t Wentz behind center but if he’s the guy, I’m gonna take a chance.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia:

Vegas: 43 Point Total/Washington: -6.5

Weather: Upper 30’s with rain and wind around 10MPH

It has been a rainy, sloppy mess in the city of brotherly love and Vegas isn’t expecting much in term of scoring with a 43 point total. The number that is a little strange to me is that Washington is projected as a 6.5 point favorite. If you have ever heard me and Michael Rasile talk during our Thursday Night Showdown stream you’ve likely heard us talk about how bigger spreads don’t really make a ton of sense in low total games. Don’t get me wrong I do think this will be very low scoring with guys like Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Desean Jackson out for the Eagles and Alex Smith, Terry McLaurin, and to a lesser extent Antonio Gibson being limited due to injuries. My overarching approach in this game is going to be to limit my exposure in any one lineup to your “big play” pass catchers (not that we have a ton) due to the injuries, especially on the Washington side. Instead, I’m going to focus on the possession style, move the chain plays and defenses for my core.

The clear favorite that I think we will see everyone gravitate towards is Jalen Hurts, he provides a floor/ceiling with his ability to run that nobody else can give you in this contest. Of 10 lineups he will likely occupy four of my captain spots. The only other guys that interest me in any way for captains on the Eagles side are Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. I’m not sure which of these guys will get the bulk of the work so it would be a good idea to make a lineup and just but each in that spot so that you don’t miss out. The value provided by both will allow you to go anywhere you want for the rest of your lineup.

The Washington side of the ball is equally as frustrating and in many ways worse due to the uncertainty. Terry McLaurin is my final contrarian play but I really struggled back and forth with whether or not I would put him in there. He is only two weeks removed from a high ankle sprain that takes 4-6 weeks to heal. The field conditions being what they are means that on slip and he is gone. Additionally, if Washington gets ahead early I don’t see them putting him on the field. He is only playing because of the must win situation. I’ll have him in one lineup at captain, that’s it. The remainder of my lines for captain will likely revolve around Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson. Logan has had 12 and 16 targets respectively in each of the last two weeks and with Alex Smith’s calf injury, Terry’s limitations, and the current weather conditions being what they are I see that continuing tonight. Antonio Gibson to this point is my favorite Washington player. He does carry a Q tag but this doesn’t seem like the same situation as Alex Smith and Terry McLaurin. Gibson has always sounded like this would be play where Alex and Terry are only in due to the scenario.

I do have one more low owned captain thought even though it isn’t listed above. I think this would be a good week to run a lineup or two with one or both defenses at captain. Both teams are dealing with significant injury issues in key offensive spots, the field will likely be a mess, and divisional contests tend to be lower scoring. My favorite of the two is actually Washington’s defense. They have been impressive all season and as dynamic as Hurts is in the early going he has had issues with ball security. He’s only lost one but he has actually fumbled the ball five times in the last two weeks and he threw two picks against Dallas last week. Players who fumble that much don’t tend to stay lucky over the long run.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As I noted above both defenses are viable and given the low score being projected both kickers are firmly in play for a cheap way to get points. Temper your expectations when it comes to your flex plays. Points will likely be difficult to come by.

Washington: Defense, JD McKissic, Cam Sims, Dustin Hopkins, Dontrell Inman, Peyton Barber

Philadelphia: Defense, Zach Ertz, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, Travis Fulgham, Jake Elliott

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 1.3 Washington at Philadelphia. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

We are almost at the end of the line folks. Only 8 days days until we find out who our playoff teams are and it’s time for us at Win Daily to finish strong. The fantasy gods have blessed us with some terrific showdown slates and this one is no different. King Henry versus A-Aron, could you ask for anything more in a showdown slate? Let’s not waste any more time. I want to get us in a position to win big this week.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Chalk: Derrick Henry $18,600

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,400

Contrarian #1: Davante Adams $16,500

Contrarian #2: Aaron Jones $14,100

Contrarian #3 Corey Davis $11,700

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers:

Vegas: 54.5 Point Total/Packers: -3

Weather: Upper 20’s with snow and wind around 15MPH

I’m going to start this off by saying that we have seven guys who can legitimately be in the captain spot and I wouldn’t think twice about it. So I will be leaving guys out. I don’t really think we’re going to have a “chalk” play. I think we’ll see the first four on my list above at roughly the same 15-20% range with the rest being significantly lower. This will be a case where if you’re throwing a single bullet out there you would be better off saving it for another contest. You need at least 10 lineup variations at minimum to even get you enough combinations to compete. I’m personally looking at making at least 20 lineups.

Vegas is projecting this to be an extremely high scoring and close contest and I’m expecting Derrick Henry to have his highest touch count on the season in this one given how stout the secondary for the Packers are. The question of the day will be who gets Jaire Alexander and who gets Kevin King. My lean is that Jaire will shadow Brown, leaving Corey Davis as my primary target. But, Green Bay runs almost 70% zone defense and both Brown and Davis can be considered one’s at this point. Alexander did largely shadow Calvin Ridley way back in week four and didn’t record a catch so if you’re looking for a comp there you go. My take on this will be to limit lineups with both receivers. I think one or the other will be shut down when it is all said and done.

I don’t think Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, or Davante Adams need much explanation. The Titans are an absolute disaster defensively through the air and on the ground. We also don’t have to worry about the insanity that is Matt LaFleur’s ridiculous split backfield with Jamaal Williams out. Adams is still getting his 10 plus targets a game. A small but crucial note in showdowns where every fraction of a point matters is that Aaron Rodgers is now running the ball between 4-6 over the last 3 games compared to the 1-2 per earlier in the year.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

With the snow and wind we are expecting at Lambeau Field I am going to be very underweight with both kickers. I would rather take a shot on a $200 salary dart to fit another top guy in than pay 4k to get 4-6 points and have to downgrade elsewhere. I know Aaron Jones will be the guy but I don’t think he’ll get 100% of the snaps so AJ Dillon is worth a hard look as a flex at $1,400.

Titans: Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, Darrynton Evans, Cameron Batson

Packers: Robert Tonyan, AJ Dillon, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Allen Lazard, Equanamious St. Brown, Marcedes Lewis

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.27 Titans at Packers. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants:

Chalk: Nick Chubb $16,800

Pivot: Jarvis Landry $14,700

Contrarian #1: Kareem Hunt $10,500

Contrarian #2: Daruis Slayton $9,300

Contrarian #3 Wayne Gallman $13,200

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants:

Vegas: 44.5 Point Total/Browns: -6.5

Weather: Mid/Upper 30’s, light wind

With Colt McCoy expected to take the helm once again Vegas is projecting this to be a messy, low scoring struggle with the Browns getting ahead early. Once thing that is strange with this one is the – 6.5 for the Browns. I know the Giants defense is underrated but there isn’t a defense in the league that can hold up to two pro bowl caliber running backs for 4 quarters when they don’t have an offense that can give them at least a little bit of a breather. That number feels like it should be at least -7.5 and at some point the Giants front seven will get worn out leaving Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt plenty of room to run free so it should be no surprise this I think Chubb will be big chalk and Hunt his my first contrarian captain play. This thought process also dictates my pivot of Jarvis Landry. He’s been playing great football since OBJ went down. He catches everything under the sun and he’s even good to throw a touchdown every so often. The front seven is legit but New Yorks clear defensive weakness is the secondary. There just isn’t anyone back there who can stop Landry. I know we gave the Browns a hard time when it comes to the passing game but in several of those duds they were dealing with some of the worst wind I can recall seeing so I’m praying that a little of that still lingers in the back of peoples minds. While I don’t think the Giants will get much done offensively I do like Darius Slayton against the soft Cleveland secondary. Denzel Ward is a bit of a concern but the Browns play about 70 percent zone defense so the deep post, bunch formations, and double moves a perfect for Slayton to break one or two open downfield. You guys should know by now that I love Slayton against a Cover-2 Zone concept. With Evan Engram dealing with a calf issue Slayton is the clear preferred target for Colt. Wayne Gallman is the only other Giant I would consider at Captain due to McCoy’s tendency to check down and Gallman has proven himself to be a versatile back who can be used in any game script. Did I mention he has had double digit DK point outings in seven straight?

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

If you are playing onslaught scripts both defenses are in play. The Giants can get to the QB causing Baker issues potentially an I just talked at length about how bad the Giants offense is. Low wind so both kickers are in play also. I’m going to list him below but be cautious with Evan Engram. He typically does poorly with soft tissue injuries and I don’t see him finishing this game. Austin Hooper is also I’m concerned with while he’s dealing with a neck issue. Keep an eye on Marvin Hall’s status everyone. If he plays for the Browns tonight that is your potential min price slate breaker!

Giants: Defense, Sterling Shepperd, Golden Tate, Evan Engram (Q, calf), Alfred Morris (eww), Dion Lewis (eww), Graham Gano

Browns: Defense, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Austin Hooper (Q, neck), Cody Parkey, Harrison Bryant, Marvin Hall (verify active)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.20 Browns at Giants. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills:

Chalk: Josh Allen $18,300

Pivot: Ben Roethlisberger $16,200

Contrarian #1: Dionte Johnson $13,500

Contrarian #2: Stefon Diggs $15,000

Contrarian #3 James Conner $12,000

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills:

Vegas: 48.5 Point Total/Bills: -1.5

Weather: Mid 30’s Wind less than 10MPH

After last week’s monster performance I would be surprised if anyone besides Josh Allen was the big chalk this evening. Given the Steeler’s recent poor performances it would appear that a little shine has disappeared from that Steelers defense. While the Steelers did look like hot garbage against Washington they have a habit of playing up or down to whatever level of competition they are facing and that has been the trend all season. So while others are expecting the Bills to roll I’d rather pivot over to Ben Roethlisberger for 2k less at captain and play for a bounce back.

Big Ben doesn’t have poor road splits this season and may come in at a hair lower in terms of ownership due to old habits. Dionte Johnson when healthy is Ben’s favorite target seeing 62 targets in the last five games and when healthy you can lock in a minimum of 10 targets and in three of the last four he’s exceeded 21 DK points.

On the Bills side of the ball I’d be crazy not to mention Stefon Diggs as a viable captain option as the teams clear number one option and John Brown still on the IR almost guaranteeing him double digit targets and 30+ DK point upside. Lastly there is one thing that has been missing over the last few weeks while the Steelers have seemed to sputter at times offensively. I know none of us want to play him but the offense runs better when James Connor is on the field and I’m sure Mike Tomlin is thinking the same.

Everyone who clamored all year for Benny Snell to take over the starting job got their chance and he was underwhelming. I have no problems putting a couple of lineups out there running a script where Connor takes over this game at the end in a scenario where Allen lays a dud and he get’s a td or two on the ground to finish things up.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As usual you can consider both kickers in the flex for cheap access to points but with a 48.5 point total I would lean with no more than one defense in any line and I would keep it as a flex.

Bills: Cole Beasley, Devin Singletary, Gabriel Davis, Zach Moss, Dawson Knox, Defense, Tyler Bass

Steelers: Juju Smith-Shuster, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, Defense , Chris Boswell

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.13 Steelers at Bills. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comment
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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams:

This will be one of the longer Showdown articles I do this season just due to how much of an enigma both teams can be. Instead of putting all of my plays in a single paragraph I want to break this one down by scenarios so that you can more clearly see your path based on which script you want to go with in a given lineup. The range of outcomes is massive with each team playing great and horrible football from one week to another so your player pool overall will be larger than usual but at the same time it will be very narrow based on the script you choose.

Chalk: Cam Newton $15,900

Pivot: Cooper Kupp $14,400

Contrarian #1: Cam Akers $12,000 (See Scenario 2)

Contrarian #2: Damien Harris $13,200 (See Scenario 2)

Contrarian #3: Either Defense ($6,600 Rams/$6,300 Patriots) (Depending on your script)

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams:

Vegas: 45 Point Total/Rams: -5

Weather: It’s LA, we’re good.

Scenario 1: Vegas Script

We should start our showdown builds on most nights with what Las Vegas is projecting. They are the OG’s of sports betting and they are right more often than not. The expectation is the Rams will win this one close and the total score is low enough for you to expect the offenses to struggle a bit.

In this script and overall I would expect the chalk to fall to Cam Newton for two reasons. First, with the exception of Jakobi Myers there is no one else outside of a dart throw that gets consistent work in the air. That leaves Cam and Damien Harris as the only reasonable options at captain for New England in your main builds. Second, no matter the issues in the air he still maintains pretty consistent value with what he can do on the ground.

On the other side of the ball in this scenario the trick is figuring out who Bill Belichick is going to choose to shut down. With Goff not being a runner, I would keep him as a flex option in a lower total game. My lean is that he’ll try to shut down Robert Woods. The snap count has been decreasing for Cooper Kupp in favor of more two tight end sets and the expanded roles of Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson recently. The upside is still there for Kupp so he would be my choice in this situation.

Scenario 2: Bad Cam Shows Up

Here comes the Cam slander as one of our subscribers likes to say. He has put up some of the worst QB numbers of his career this season and actually played badly enough to get benched in week seven where he put up 2.82 DK points.

The way this happens is a combination of two things. The Rams defense has a few big plays early on, the offense scores a couple of early touchdowns and the Patriots will be unable to hide Cam with the run game. In this situation we are talking about a 5-1 or 4-2 build in favor of the Rams. In most cases you want to target the trailing team but when it goes bad for the Patriots this year nobody produces with the exception of someone like James White.

If you are running a huge number of lineups take a handful of shots on him at captain. In two of our three game scripts White would be the preferred running back do to the passing game work. His ceiling looks to be limited at around 15 points in a PPR format this season but he still looks capable of his 25+ point upside games. In this scenario you can either run with a WR like Kupp if you think the quick scores come from him in or you can go with a back like Cam Akers in the captain spot.

Akers finally had his first game with more than 20 carries and it looks like he may be the guy but this feels like a bit of a trap as I mentioned in discord. He’s never had double digit touches in back to back weeks, he was limited in practice this week logging only one full practice, we’re on a short week, and Malcom Brown and Darrel Henderson only saw a 16% and 23% snap share respectively on Sunday. It wouldn’t surprise me if they kept the snap count low so they would be fresh on Thursday. So although it looks like it is Cams job now, I will be running some lineups with Henderson and Brown at captain in this scenario.

Scenario 3: Bad Goff shows up

I’m not just slandering cam today, Jared Goff has had his share of terrible games over the last two seasons. Just two weeks ago against the 49ers he put up a dud with a 6.02 DK outing. He has a difficult time against exotic looks and we know Bill has a huge playbook to pull from in that regard. The Pats have also really stepped up on the defensive side of the ball even after losing the majority of their defensive stars in the offseason.

In this scenario we have three primary captains we should look at, Cam Newton, Patriots defense, and Damien Harris. It looks like Bill is toning town the RBBC scheme that has driven us crazy and the scenarios on which to use is pretty straightforward. If the wheels fall of for the Rams we could cross off most of the players sans Matt Gay (Questionable) and Cooper Kupp. Goff struggled against the more exotic looks in week 8 against the Dolphins and Cooper Kupp got 20 targets in the process. He will always be his safety blanket. As a flex option only, I would also not be against some Sony Michel in this situation. He got about 10 carries in the blowout against the Chargers. He could have gotten more but instead they decided to roll out Jakob Johnson so I wouldn’t expect much more than that due to his injury history (hope that statement doesn’t come back to bite me).

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Kickers in low scoring games are firmly in play and with the way both offenses struggle at times you could see a number of long field goal attempts. Also with the recent increase in return touchdowns if you choose to go with a defense at captain going with the return man has become a good low owned option and an attempt to double dip on DraftKings. Another thing that you really need to consider when choosing flex’s.

Both the Patriots and Rams have a secondary where they can shut the primary receiver down. I could be completely off base and they chose to shut down Goff other than Woods but it is no secret that Jakobi Meyers is the only receiver who poses any threat so if Ramsey gives anyone the shadow treatment it will be him so I will likely be underweight on him.

Rams: Jared Goff, Matt Gay, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everette, Josh Reynolds, Malcom Brown, Darrel Henderson, Van Jefferson

Patriots: Jacoki Meyers, James White, Gunner Owlzewski (Returner, DK Only), Damiere Byrd, Sony Michel, Donte Moncreif (only large field GPP’s as a last option)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.10 Patriots at Rams. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore:

I’ve been trying to get a little more unique in some of my pivots over the last several showdowns and to this point we have found ourselves in good position at the end of the game. We all know who big chalk in this game. Lamar Jackson’s ownership in the captain spot is likely to get close to 30%. It is for very good reason though. The Cowboys are an absolute mess defensively and this might get out of hand quickly.

Chalk: Lamar Jackson $17,400

Pivot: JK Dobbins $12,900

Contrarian #1: Marquise Brown $10,800

Contrarian #2: Baltimore Defense $8,700

Contrarian #3: CeeDee Lamb $9,900

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore:

***For those who like narratives: Dez Bryant “revenge game”. He says it is water under the bridge but I do not really believe him.

Vegas: 45 Point Total/Ravens: -8

Weather: Upper 30’s, 8-10 MPH Wind

Vegas is telling us to to expect a pretty solid beatdown with the Ravens projected as 8 point favorites with a 45 point total. I don’t plan on giving Dallas that much credit. The Ravens blitz on almost 43% of their plays this season, Andy Dalton is terrible under pressure, and now Zack Martin is on the IR. I think the Ravens are going to have a field day. With that being said, you know we always say run 10 lines in showdown. You should have one or two under the expectation that Dallas has a solid day. We just saw the Pittsburgh lose to Washington. Anything can happen in showdown.

No need to explain Lamar Jackson at captain against this defense. JK Dobbins should be pretty self explanatory as well. Three of the last four weeks he has gotten no less that 14 touches which, for this overloaded backfield, is about as good are you’ll get without an injury or two. He is also the most well rounded back for Baltimore so in the freak occurrence that the Raven get behind he still gets used in the passing game.

If there is any game that Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown could completely click and dominate this would be the one. While everyone like to bag on the Cowboy’s offense (deserved, good job McCarthy), the defense is even worse. They’ve given up 31 or more points in seven of their 11 games this year and have yet to hold a single opponent to under 20 points, and even that was week 1. As a reminder, they play the Giants, Eagles, and Washington twice a year…

Remember what I said about the Ravens blitz rate and The Red Water Pistol? This is the first and likely only time this season I will recommend a defense at the captains spot outside of just a random MME dart throw. I would be surprised if they didn’t get multiple sacks, multiple picks, and a pick 6.

Now that I said all of that we can expect the Cowboys to prove me wrong on every front so for my final pivot I’ll give you my favorite Cowboy. It’s not Zeke, he’s been garbage with Mike McCarthy as the head coach and that will not change. We need confirmation of 10 defensive players and their respective ailments. If either Jimmy Smith, Tramon Williams, or
Davontae Harris miss in the secondary they will not have the numbers to cover all three of the Cowboys receivers. Not to mention Safeties Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliott are questionable with injuries as well.

If the Cowboys can protect Dalton I think CeeDee Lamb going across the middle of the field will be dangerous proposition. The Ravens are deep in terms of physical talent in the secondary but where they will have a problem is communicating in confusing situations like heavy motion, bunch routes, and crossing routes. Do I think It’ll happen? No. But when playing in showdown you have to cover all of your bases

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both kickers are in play and you have a ton of options for both teams to choose from. Most of my builds will have the same four guys and I really only plan to pick different flex options in those two spot to differentiate.

Cowboys: Amari Cooper, Dalton Shultz, Andy Dalton, Michael Gallup, Greg Zuerlein, Ezekiel Elliott, Cedrick Wilson

Ravens: Mark Ingram, Justin Tucker, Devin Duvernay, Willy Snead (if he plays), Myles Boykin, Luke Willson, Gus Edwards, Dez Bryant

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.8 Dallas at Baltimore. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh:

This one feels a bit strange to me. Washington is 5-7 on the season and for the most part the offense has been largely inept but they sit at 2-2 since the return of Alex Smith and in the two games where he lost he put up 325 and 390 yard respectively. By no stretch do I think they will win and it was the easiest 4 game stretch that you could even have for a team. I just see signs of life from Washington and the Steelers tend to play down or up to their level of competition. You should largely be able to get who you want today with the highest price being Ben Roethlisberger at 15,900.

Chalk: Benny Snell $11,400

Pivot: Ben Roethlisberger $15,900

Contrarian #1: Terry McLaurin $13,200

Contrarian #2: Diontae Johnson $14,100

Contrarian #3: JD Mckissic $7,800

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh:

Vegas: 43.5 Point total Steelers: –6.5

Weather: Mid-Upper 30’s, 10 MPH Wind

Vegas is telling us to expect a good deal of defense and with Washington’s play style, Pittsburgh’s defense, and questionable offensive players I’m not going to argue with them. With the expectation that Pittsburgh will control this game Benny Snell is my lean for the big chalk on the day but I think it will be close. For Snell, Ben Roethlisberger, all of the Steelers receivers, and even the Steelers defense to be within a couple of percentage points so going captain will be tricky on that side.

My receiver’s lean for Pittsburgh is Diontae Johnson just due to the target volume over the last few weeks, but if you feel a certain way about Claypool or Juju I won’t talk you out of it. Where I think the captain play will be most interesting is on the Washington side of the ball. Terry McLaurin is an absolute monster and he has been QB proof in his short career. He has seen no less that seven target in any game this season and if the script matches Vegas, I don’t see 10-12 targets being hard to reach.

JD Mckissic is one that I know I have to explain. If you give me the finger and go Antonio Gibson I won’t blame you. Pass catching backs have had a measure of success against the Steelers and Ron Rivera clearly favors JD in passing down situations. It also helps that Alex Smith has the lowest average depth of target in the league. In both games where he was playing from behind he targeted Mckissic 14 and 15 targets with 17.2 and 17.9 DraftKings points in each. If you think Washington will trail you should at least consider JD in one or two of your builds.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both defenses and both kickers are firmly in play with a 43.5 point total and Pittsburgh’s tendency to play down to their level of competition.

Washington: Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson, Cam Sims, Logan Thomas, Defense, Dontell Inman, Dustin Hopkins

Pittsburgh: Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Shuster, Eric Ebron, Defense, Matthew Wright, Ray Ray Mcloud (if using Steelers Defense)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.7 Washington at Pittsburgh. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs:

Before we get into captains we all know the usual suspects for the Chiefs so if I don’t get them all in here it’s just due to only using 5 captain picks. If you have a lean for another Chief go for it. It just doesn’t do me or you any good to just list all of them every showdown. I’m trying to get a little different so that you can hopefully take a GPP down. I need some Phillip Lindsay Clarification as well as news of

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes $19,800

Pivot: Drew Lock $13,800

Contrarian #1:Travis Kelce $16,200

Contrarian #2: LeVeon Bell $3,600 (If we see CEH limited or out)

Contrarian #3: Noah Fant $7,500

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs Notes:

Vegas: 51.5 Point total Chiefs: -13

Weather: Mid-Upper 30’s, light breeze

Most of us are expecting the same thing, the Chiefs to get up big and control the game. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are clearly great captain options so I’m not going too deep with KC. What we can do as far as a pivot goes is go with Drew Lock and what will likely be a 50 pass night for $6,000 less at half of the ownership. Lock is by no means a “good” QB right now but the garbage time could possibly be a full half so paring him with Noah Fant, Jerry Juedy, or Tim Patrick is a leverage position that I am going to make use of. I need to get some clarification on Clyde Edwards-Helair‘s status but given his illness (stomach virus) if the Chiefs get up big they may opt to not risk wearing him out which is steering me towards LeVeon Bell in a few captain spots. We all like to give Bell a hard time but he still looks like the same back that he has always been it is just the fact that he has been in bad situations or in the case of the Chiefs buried behind CEH. In the same way I thought CEH was a slate breaker in their last showdown I could very well see the same scenario with Bell tonight. I’m not really going to entertain a scenario where the Broncos get ahead when we are talking about script but if you were inclined to use a Broncos running back I would lean Melvin Gordon. For some reason people still talk about Lindsay being the receiving back because he’s small. He’s not, he never has been. He can not catch the ball and that goes back to his time playing for University of Colorado Boulder.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As per usual, kickers are in play as well as the Chiefs defense, Lock gets wild and the special teams is always a threat If you choose to use the Chiefs defense I’d recommend using Tyreek Hill over Kelce as captain because you will double dip on a return score. I know I have Tyreek down here but as I made clear. The big three are always captain viable I just chose Kelce for little salary savings.

Broncos: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Melvin Gordon, KJ Hamler, Brandon McManus, Royce Freeman( if Lindsay out or expected to be limited)

Chiefs: Tyreek Hill***(see above), Defense, Sammy Watkins, Harrison Butker, Darrell Williams (If CEH out), Demarcus Robinson

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.6 Broncos at Chiefs . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” HUGE Week 12 at Win Daily for our NFL DFS GPP lineups and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 13. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 13 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 13

  1. Minnesota Vikings (24.82)
  2. Green Bay Packers (24.05)
  3. Tennessee Titans (22.31)
  4. Los Angeles Rams (22.30)
  5. New Orleans Saints (22.02)

My Personal Top Stacks:

1) Green Bay Packers
2) Chicago Bears
3) Tennessee Titans
4) Seattle Seahawks
5) New York Jets

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

  1. Aaron Rodgers – All in on Rodgers and the Packers’ offense against the Eagles’ putrid secondary. The Eagles will bring an excellent pass rush so this is no cakewalk for Rodgers and company, but on a Sunday as ugly as this one, I’m going to invest heavily in the best quarterback on the slate.
  2. Mitch Trubisky – Yes, let’s go down to the salary savings of Mitch Trubisky and this Bears offense. As mentioned in the cash game article, Trubisky absolutely destroys the Lions’ defense, historically. The Lions’ defense as a whole is decimated with injuries and also do not have Matt Patricia slowing down the pace of their offense.

    This game will be sloppy, but it will produce some fantasy fireworks for our NFL DFS GPP lineups.
  3. Ryan Tannehill – Low key, Tannehill and the Titans’ offense play at a very high pace despite giving Derrick Henry 22+ carriers per game. A high-paced offense is something I’ll always be interested in with my GPP builds… especially when that team is going virtually un-owned (outside of Derrick Henry).

    Vegas has this game kicking off with the highest total on the slate and surprisingly it’s not drawing a lot of ownership in DFS.

    Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray

Running Backs

  1. Chris Carson – Carson is in for a full workload this week after seeing how useless Carlos Hyde was with 15 touches last week in addition to nursing a toe injury. We love playing double digit home-favorite running backs, so why is there no love for a 3-down back like Chris Carson?
  2. Miles Sanders – I always pick on the Green Bay running defense and this happens to be the perfect run back for my favorite stack of the Packers.
  3. Myles Gaskin – There’s literally no one else behind him that will take away snaps. Miami is a big favorite against a Bengals team that has absolutely nothing to play for. Gaskin will likely be popular, but not nearly as much as Montgomery and Booker.
  4. Kareem Hunt – Just a conviction play to go on the other side of my Titans’ stacks (when I cannot afford Nick Chubb). I really love this spot for both Browns’ running backs.

    Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Damien Harris, Frank Gore

Wide Receivers

  1. Davante Adams – He’s not sneaky whatsoever, but give me all of the Davante Adams this week.
  2. Allen Robinson – If he’s 100% healthy and good to go, the Lions’ secondary is absolutely destroyed right now. Desmond Trufant and Jeffrey Okudah (the top two corners in Detroit) are both out (Trufant on IR)… this is going to be a field day for Robinson and the Bears.
  3. AJ Brown – I don’t know what else AJ Brown has to do to get more love in the DFS world. He’s one of the highest ceiling wide receivers to put into your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
  4. DJ Chark – He’s a top-end wide receiver priced at $5,400 on DraftKings against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The Jaguars will be playing catch up all day on Sunday and that sets up for a busy day for DJ Chark.
  5. Michael Pittman – All the way the hell in on Michael Pittman this weekend against a Bradley Roby-less, Houston Texans’ secondary. Read the cash game article if you need more on why I’m so high on Pittman.
  6. Denzel Mims / Breshad Perriman – If you need some salary relief, one of these two will be my top choices. They both have extremely intriguing player props for such low salaries in DFS and have a juicy matchup against the Raiders’ secondary you know I love to pick on.

    Honorable Mention: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Corey Davis, Darnell Mooney, Justin Jefferson

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

  1. Robert Tonyan – Packers’ stacks and a dude who is a lock to see 5+ targets and a great red-zone asset. Cheap exposure to my favorite game-stack.
  2. TJ Hockenson – simply a low-owned, underpriced player as a run-back to my second favorite stack. Out of the tight-ends on this slate, no one other than Darren Waller have the floor Hockenson has.

    Honorable Mention: Hayden Hurst

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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