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Today we have a solid slate of football.  As is tradition, we have a 3 game thanksgiving slate.  The darling of the day appears to be the Dallas/Las Vegas game as it has a 51 projected total. Below you’ll find my top picks on MKF.

More or Less – 3.6x Payout

Josh Allen vs. New Orleans – 265.5 Yards

Saints have shown the propensity to give up some big games this season as they’ve given up over 265 yards passing 5 times this season.  When doing my research for this, I automatically threw out their last game against the Eagles as they only gave up 147 yards but that was against a team that runs a 70/30 run/pass split.  

Bills are in must win mode now.  They’re a half game back of the Patriots and can’t afford to lose this game.  If they are going to win, they need a vintage game from Josh Allen.  You know, one of those 300+ passing games with multiple touchdowns.  Allen has gotten to the 266 yard mark a handful of times this season and he does it again today.

Derek Carr vs. Dallas Cowboys – 260.5 Yards

If you would have asked me if Carr could get to this number earlier in the season it would have been an easy yes for me.  Over the first 5 weeks of the season the Cowboys gave up more than 290 yards passing in each game.  However, over the last few weeks they’ve tightened things up a bit.  The most they’ve given up over their past 5 games is 260 yards which was last week against Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

Carr himself has hit this number 70% of the time this season.  Most recently in week 10 against the Chiefs.  I personally think this is going to be a tough matchup for Carr today and he struggles in the air.  The Cowboys are going to be extra motivated to play today after a tough loss this past weekend.  I’m going w/ the under on this one. 

Rapid Fire – 3x Payout

Josh Allen vs. Derek Carr (+5.5 yards)

I’ve already highlighted the two of these guys in the More or Less section.  Even with the extra 5.5 yards Allen should have a better game than Carr today.  I’m choosing Allen over Carr.

Stefon Diggs vs. Darren Waller (+11.5 yards)

With my expectation that Allen has a great game today comes the expectation that Diggs follows suit.  Diggs is Allen’s main target. Over the past 4 weeks Diggs has been targeted on average more than 9 times per game. 

During that stretch he also has a game of 162 yards.  While I don’t think he gets to 162 yards today, I do expect him to get over the century mark.  On the defensive side, the Saints have really squeezed receivers of late. In the last 6 weeks they’ve allowed more than 190 yards receiving to wide receivers only once.  

Switching over to Waller he is essentially the Raiders offense.  When he’s in the lineup he is the main target for Derek Carr.  While I don’t think that Carr has a great day, I do think that Carr does enough with Waller for him to be a top offensive star on the day.  We’ve seen Carr have subpar games but for Waller to do well in those. 

Last week is a prime example.  Carr only threw for 215 yards last week against the Bengals.  116 yards of those yards went to Waller.  Cowboys have given up some big yardage games to tight ends this season and they should do it again today.  My pick here is Waller, especially given the extra 11.5 yards.  

Good luck and hope you cash!

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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 4 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.Let’s get to the game!Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.Week 4 NFL DFS Chalk: Justin Herbert (FD $15,500, DK $16,800)Pivot: Derek Carr (FD $16,000, DK $16,200)Contrarian #1: Austin Ekeler (FD $13,500, DK $14,400)Contrarian #2: Keenan Allen (FD $...

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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Lamar Jackson (FD $17,000, DK $18,600)

Pivot: Darren Waller (FD $13,000, DK $16,200)

Contrarian #1: Mark Andrews (FD $13,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #2: Derek Carr (FD $14,000, DK $14,700)

Contrarian #3: Ty’Son Williams (FD $12,000, DK $10,200)

Lamar Jackson is far and away the most expensive (and highest-upside) player in this contest, but I think we’re going to need him in the MVP spot or one of the FLEX spots to cash. The Raiders defense is dealing with lots of turnover and communication/teamwork aspects of their unit could see some struggles in Week 1, especially against a playmaker like Jackson. He should be running a little more than usual with the makeshift backfield they’re employing, and all the new faces just getting into the Baltimore system.

Ravens notes: The most important players to roster will be Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, RB Ty’Son Williams (who could see an enormous Week 1 workload) and WR Marquise Brown, but we could see some of the newly acquired veterans (Latavius Murray and Sammy Watkins stand out the most) or fringe offensive players like Devin Duvernay — or even rookie Tylan Wallace — play a role. I’m also very intersted in the Ravens DST and K Justin Tucker, since this one could be lower-scoring than if both these offenses ere at full strength.

Raiders notes: Josh Jacobs is questionable to play tonight, and the best possible offensive combo for the Raiders is likely Derek Carr/Darren Waller, with Waller being the best one-off if we overstack Ravens. We’re not getting enough of a discount on Kenyan Drake to focus too much on him, but he’s a GPP play given his ability to haul in reception and rack up the points that way — especially if Jacobs is unavailable. It’s interesting to see the less heralded WR Bryan Edwards with a salary higher than WR Henry Ruggs III, who is another possible playmaker. We also have to consider Hunter Renfrow and Willie Snead IV, but these WRS are all pretty risky plays.

Week 1 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use too many Raiders. I could see 3 BAL/3 LV working, but most of my builds will be 4 BAL/2 LV.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Ignore kickers and defenses. Both Tucker and the Ravens DST are in play, and Daniel Carlson could factor as well tonight.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Lamar Jackson
  2. Mark Andrews
  3. Darren Waller
  4. Ty’Son Williams
  5. Derek Carr
  6. Marquise Brown
  7. Ravens DST
  8. Henry Ruggs III
  9. Bryan Edwards
  10. Josh Jacobs (questionable, so only if he plays)
  11. Kenyan Drake
  12. Sammy Watkins
  13. Justin Tucker
  14. Latavius Murray
  15. Hunter Renfrow
  16. Tylan Wallace
  17. Devin Duvernay
  18. Peyton Barber
  19. Willie Snead
  20. Daniel Carlson
  21. Raiders DST
  22. James Proche

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 15 NFL DFS contests!

Week 15 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

We should have a fun matchup in NFL DFS for Week 15 here on Thursday Night Football!

Chalk: Justin Herbert (DK $17,700, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Darren Waller (DK $14,100, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #1: Derek Carr (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Austin Ekeler (DK $15,600, FD $13,500)

FD/DK Value: Josh Jacobs (DK $8,800 FLEX, FD $13,000)

DK Punts: Hunter Henry ($5,800 FLEX) and Kalen Ballage ($2,400 FLEX if Ekeler OUT)

We’ve got myriad skill position injuries to monitor ahead of tonight’s showdown, but thankfully neither QB carries an injury designation. Despite the Chargers being 3-point road dogs, Justin Herbert is the chalk at CPT and should be in most of the roster builds that get clicked in before lock. While we could argue there’s some reason to consider fading the gunslinger rookie (three consecutive games under 20 DK points), I’m much less excited about the prospect of rolling out Derek Carr in the top spot. Carr is coming off his two best fantasy performances of 2020, but I have some trust issues after his putrid performance in Week 12 @ATL.

Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are game-time decisions, and if they sit, I’ll definitely be pivoting more to Carr and TE Darren Waller as the core of my builds, mixing in shares of whomever gets the start at RB for the Chargers, be that Austin Ekeler (questionable but expected to play with a quad injury) or Kalen Ballage. Right now, it looks like Ekeler should be good to go, but Ballage would be an obscenely good value if he gets back the workhorse role he had in the weeks before Ekeler returned.

Chargers pass catchers to consider (if either or both of Allen and Williams are inactive) include TE Hunter Henry (a solid play in any event) WR Tyron Johnson – who finished Week 14 with 6-55-1 on seven targets from Herbert – and even Jalen Guyton, a downfield target who’s had 40 targets and a 21-377-3 receiving line this season. He’s a “final piece” type of plug in who could exploit the Raiders secondary issues.

We could also see more offensive snaps and a handful or targets for rookie K.J. Hill, who fellow former Ohio St. Buckeye Cris Carter said was a steal in the 2020 NFL draft.

The Raiders have placed Henry Ruggs III on the COVID-19 reserve list, so he’s unavailable for this showdown. That gives Nelson Agholor a slight bump and greatly increases the chances of a big game for Hunter Renfrow. Rookie WR Bryan Edwards, not targeted in Sunday’s loss to Indy and without a catch in the Jets game, might also be a factor. He and Zay Jones are fringe plays at best.

As for kickers and defenses, I trust Raiders K Dylan Carlson a lot more than Chargers K Michael Badgley, who hasn’t scored in the past two weeks. Carlson is even cheaper on DK. With three negative DK point performances in their last three games, the Raiders DST are more expensive and have a lot less to offer from a gamebreaking perspective than the Chargers DST. But if the Bolts are without their top two WRs, they have to be considered in the occasional GPP.

Injury Update: As of 1 p.m. EST, Ekeler is expected to play, Williams is doubtful, and Allen remains a true GTD.

Week 15 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.

DO: Include Darren Waller somewhere. He’s the most involved player for both teams and is on the field for almost every Raiders offensive snap.

DON’T: Ignore the Chargers inactives – it’s going to have a huge effect on Herbert’s effectiveness and the players who impact this showdown.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Justin Herbert
  2. Darren Waller
  3. Derek Carr
  4. Austin Ekeler (if active)
  5. Josh Jacobs
  6. Keenan Allen (questionable, GTD)
  7. Nelson Agholor
  8. Hunter Henry
  9. Mike Williams (questionable, GTD)
  10. Tyron Johnson (bump if Keenan Allen sits)
  11. Hunter Renfrow
  12. Dylan Carlson
  13. Jalen Guyton (bump if Mike Williams sits)
  14. Kalen Ballage (huge bump if Ekeler sits)
  15. Chargers DST
  16. Justin Jackson
  17. Devontae Booker
  18. Raiders DST
  19. Foster Moreau
  20. Zay Jones
  21. Bryan Edwards
  22. K.J. Hill (bump if Allen/Williams sit)
  23. Michael Badgley
  24. Donald Parham
  25. Jason Witten
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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Drew Brees (DK $15,900, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Josh Jacobs (DK $14,400, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #1: Alvin Kamara (DK $17,100, FD $14,000)

Contrarian #2: Emmanuel Sanders (DK $13,200, FD $10,000)

Contrarian #3: Darren Waller (DK $11,100, FD $11,500)

Predicting showdown ownership in NFL and NBA is always tricky, because of the last-minute adjustments that folks tend to make reacting to late-breaking news (I did it just last night in the Lakers game by removing Rajon Rondo from all my showdown lineups in the minutes before lock). But I have a feeling folks will be starting a lot of lineups with Drew Brees up top and filling the rest in with affordable options. It’s certainly a viable strategy this week given the softer pricing and absence of Michael Thomas (ankle), who’s already been ruled out.

I will likely be using Josh Jacobs at MVP in my builds, however, since he has the most guaranteed touches and what I feel is the most upside in this game as a true workhorse back. It’s not a contrarian play, but it’s a way to differentiate your lineups (especially on FanDuel) and get some built-in variance in a format that requires it.

This is a game the Raiders can win, especially if they dominate time of possession, and we don’t often see the Saints without their top WR and the threat of his 5-15 catches per game. If we start with Jacobs (rather than Brees or Alvin Kamara), it’s a lot easier to fit the main offensive cogs from both teams.

Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders and Darren Waller are also MVP options, but the odds are against them dominating the game enough to warrant more than some one-off builds.

Week 2 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use Drew Brees as your MVP with no Saints position players and the Raiders DST.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary – though we can make the case for including more Saints positional punts given the injury to Thomas.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Josh Jacobs
  2. Drew Brees
  3. Alvin Kamara
  4. Emmanuel Sanders
  5. Darren Waller
  6. Derek Carr
  7. Jared Cook
  8. Tre’Quan Smith
  9. Bryan Edwards
  10. Will Lutz
  11. Latavius Murray
  12. Henry Ruggs (questionable, knee)
  13. Saints DST
  14. Hunter Renfrow
  15. Daniel Carlson
  16. Taysom Hill
  17. Raiders DST
  18. Nelson Agholor
  19. Deonte Harris
  20. DeVontae Booker
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The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 16 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Russell Wilson, ARI vs SEA

DK ($7,000) FD ($8,300)

Russell Wilson vs Arizona’s defense, that is all. It looks like he is rediscovering a connection with Tyler Lockett, which is key with Josh Gordon being suspended. In his last five games, Wilson is averaging 240 yards. The Cardinals are allowing 306.9 passing yards per game and are still the defense I expect to crumble. Especially with the different playoff situations that could happen, this should be the building block for the Seahawks to win the NFC West.

Lamar Jackson, BAL @ CLE

DK ($8,000) FD ($9,300)

Do I even need to give you numbers for this one? The only reason you could argue this is questioning how long Jackson will be in the game. This Cleveland Browns team has completely given up and are now iffy at best. Lamar had a great game last time these two met as he went for 247 passing yards with three touchdowns and two picks. He also ran nine times for 66 yards. Expect another Lamar Jackson-esque game here.

Dak Prescott, DAL @ PHI

DK ($6,400) FD ($8,000)

His appearance on the injury report and being limited in practice does not scare me in the least. Philadelphia is tied for allowing the seventh-most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. The Eagles also allow a lot of big passing plays with 14 passes of at least 40 yards. The injuries that have stockpiled on their offense will allow Prescott to control the ball. Last week’s annihilation of the Rams also plays a factor in this decision. Expect a solid game and the NFC East clinched here.

Week 16 Quarterback GPP Plays

Matt Ryan, JAX vs ATL

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,700)

Ryan has thrown for multiple touchdowns for the last two games. He also has not thrown an interception in the month of December. The Jacksonville Jaguars are not in a great position with the firing of Tom Coughlin and their defense doesn’t force interceptions as well. Expect a nice outing out of Ryan at a solid price point.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN vs MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,400)

I feel this will bring quite the upside in an otherwise meaningless game that many people will forget about. Cincinnati locks in the first overall pick in 2020 with the loss so I wouldn’t be shocked if the call from above is to lose. Obviously, players don’t care about tanking and will play regardless. FitzMagic should be in full effect and pick up a fourth consecutive solid outing against weak opponents. He could make your quarterback skill position a lot stronger with him in your DFS lineup.

Drew Brees, NO @ TEN

DK ($ 6,900) FD ($8,200)

Coming off one of the single greatest performances by a quarterback, Drew Brees is going up against the Tennessee Titans. Still competing for the number one seed, Brees will still be competing at the highest level. The Titans allow 258.1 passing yards per game and that is the eighth-highest in the NFL. Expect a great game out of Brees, which isn’t such a difficult thought.

Week 16 Quarterback Fades

Josh Allen, BUF @ NE

DK ($5,300) FD ($7,600)

In his last game against the Pats, he went 13-of-28 with 153 yards and three interceptions. Bill Belichick has a way of making opposing quarterbacks feel uncomfortable and with a solid defense, don’t expect a big return with Josh Allen under center for your NFL DFS team.

Tom Brady, BUF vs NE

DK ($5,200) FD ($7,400)

This Patriots offense is not threatening, especially going against an elite Buffalo defense that is mathematically still alive for the AFC East divisional title. The Patriots have struggled against speedy defenses this season and Buffalo is another one of those. It’s hard to see the Pats having a chance to run the ball. Brady also went 18-of-39 for 150 yards and a pick last time these two teams faced off. Don’t try to get too cute with your quarterback selection here.

Derek Carr, OAK @ LAC

DK ($5,300) FD ($7,300)

With the news that Josh Jacobs will not play in this game, I don’t see the Raiders running the ball as much. Carr is an average quarterback and when a defense can suspect the pass, it probably won’t be a great outing for Carr. The Chargers pass defense is already elite without the help as they allow just 197.4 passing yards a game, which is fourth in the NFL. With all the signs pointing against Derek Carr, it makes sense to fade him in this matchup.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day 

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Patrick Mahomes over 290.5 passing yards and Mitchell Trubisky under 241.5 passing yards.

Pat Mahomes is going against an injury-plagued Chicago Bears defense. Coming off a great game against the Denver Broncos, Mahomes had 340 yards through the air. I expect another 300+ yard passing game out of Mahomes. Trubisky, on the other hand, has big yardage days but I see the Chiefs dominating the time of possession in this game. Trubisky is turnover-prone so he won’t have the opportunity to put up these types of numbers.

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The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 15 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Jimmy Garoppolo, ATL vs SF

DK ($5,600) FD ($8,400)

He is coming off of one of his best games as a starting quarterback and the Falcons defense shouldn’t cause issues. Atlanta is allowing a 100.3 passer rating this season, which is the seventh-highest in the NFL. Garoppolo is playing with solid receivers that will create separation. With the 49ers still trying to win the NFC West, they should be ready while the Falcons are eliminated from playoff contention. Even with a backup center for the remainder of the season, Garoppolo should still have a solid game.

Tom Brady, NE @ CIN

DK ($6,100) FD ($7,600)

This should be the bounce-back week for the Patriots offense in general as they travel to Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed just 16 passing touchdowns so don’t expect the huge total from Brady. However, he doesn’t turn the ball over often and is a cheaper option on the slate. The Bengals allow 64 percent of passes to be completed so expect Brady’s accuracy to increase from where it has been the previous month. Expect a nice rebound game against a team poised to have the first pick in the NFL Draft.

Aaron Rodgers, CHI vs GB

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,000)

This game is completely different than when these two teams met to open up the season. The Chicago Bears are dealing with injuries across the defense with Roquan Smith being placed on IR as well as Prince Amukamara and Danny Trevathan potentially missing this game. Aaron Rodgers should dominate a depleted defense and this Bears team has given up at least 275 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in the last three games. Aaron Rodgers is completing 64.3 percent of his passes this season and only threw two interceptions so far. Expect Rodgers to continue playing well and get closer to locking up the NFC North.

Week 15 Quarterback GPP Plays

Jameis Winston, TB @ DET

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,200)

Winston had a great statistical game passing the ball last week against the Indianapolis Colts without Mike Evans. Evans is currently doubtful for this matchup as of this writing. Tampa ranks second in passing yards per game and the Lions allow the third-most passing yards in the league. I do not see a situation where Detroit can stop Jameis, all they can do is hope he coughs up the football multiple times.

Baker Mayfield, CLE @ ARI

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,700)

Not sure if I am pro-Baker or anti-Arizona this week. Baker should feast against this Arizona defense that is the worst at passing defense. They allow the most yards per game, touchdowns and best passer rating in the league. Baker is completing under 60 percent of his passes this season but this should be the return to last year’s version of Mayfield with a soft opposing defense. The Browns somehow have a chance to still make the playoffs and need this win, so expect Baker to come out with a lot of emotion.

Russell Wilson, SEA @ CAR

DK ($ 7,000) FD ($8,100)

Carolina is still trying to find out their identity as the season is reaching its end. Their pass rush is one of the best in the league with the second-most sacks. However, Carolina has two of their DE on the injury report. Expect Wilson to have his usual game as the running game will set him up for some big plays.

Week 15 Quarterback Fades

Mitch Trubisky, CHI @ GB

DK ($,6000) FD ($7,500)

The Packers are a different team at home than they are on the road. Green Bay’s defense has 13 interceptions on the year and Tribusky is prone to mistakes. The Packers are trying to lock up this division and defeating the Bears could eliminate Chicago from the playoffs. Expect the Green Bay defense to lock down Tribusky and turn him back into a pumpkin.

Andy Dalton, CIN @ NE

DK ($4,900) FD ($7,000)

Bill Belichick will shut down Andy Dalton, plain and simple. Dalton has had a solid couple games since being renamed the starting quarterback but that was against the Jets and Browns. The Patriot defense struggles against speedy teams and the Bengals do not have much speed. Expect this to get ugly early and potentially see Dalton pulled late.

Josh Allen, BUF @ PIT

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,600)

Buffalo has two of their offensive tackles on the injury report, which is a little concerning. Pittsburgh’s passing defense is one of the best in football with the most sacks, fifth-least passing yards, and 18 interceptions. Allen has been good this year but the Bills offense has stuttered at times this season and against an elite defense is prone to do so again in primetime.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day 

Click Here to Play and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Jimmy Garoppolo over 270.5 passing yards and Matt Ryan under 265.5 passing yards.

Atlanta is allowing 258.2 passing yards per game and this is the time for Garoppolo to sling the football. Atlanta stops the run well so look for a large number of passing attempts and Jimmy G should finish with 300+ yards. San Francisco is coming off their worst pass-defending games in a shootout with the New Orleans Saints. However, the Falcons do not have nearly the amount of weapons that the Saints did. The 49ers also rank first in pass defense this season so Matt Ryan should easily hit the under.

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The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 14 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Aaron Rodgers, WAS vs GB

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,400)

Another week, another NFC East team with little-to-no chance to stop Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has thrown 22 touchdowns with just two interceptions this season. The Washington Redskins do not hold the ball enough and this smells like a dominant Packers performance where Aaron Rodgers shows why he is still one of the best passers in the league.

Delvin Hodges, PIT @ ARI

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,000)

Delvin Hodges has looked good in his limited action thus far this season. The Arizona Cardinals have been the worst against the pass as they have given up 307 yards and 31 touchdowns (both lead the NFL). Opposing quarterbacks are able to make big plays with 60 passes of at least 20 yards happening. Even with Juju Smith-Schuster looking like he won’t play, I can’t expect anything out of this Cardinal defense. Hodges isn’t going to dominate here, but he is a valuable option that won’t cost you.

Drew Brees, SF vs NO

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,700)

The first half of last week’s game against the Baltimore Ravens has soured me a tiny bit off the 49ers. New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South and now it’s time for the Saints to try to capture a bye in the Wild Card round. San Francisco is one of the best against the passing game but it’s Drew Brees we are talking about. He’s one of the only quarterbacks I blindly follow no matter who is opposing Brees.

Week 14 Quarterback GPP Plays

Pat Mahomes, KC @ NE

DK ($7,000) FD ($8,400)

This one is the “hot take” choice because this one can burn you easily and the number one rule (Belichick eliminates your number one option). However, the one thing that the New England defense struggles with is speed and that was evident against the Ravens and Texans so far. The Chiefs are faster than either of those teams and Pat Mahomes is looking for revenge from last year’s AFC Championship. Speed is the kryptonite this year and will take it until the Patriots show me otherwise.

Kirk Cousins, DET vs MIN

DK ($6,700) FD ($8,200)

Kirk Cousins is extremely underrated this season with a 23:4 TD-to-INT ratio. In Week 7 when these two teams met, Cousins had one of his best games on the season. Detroit gives up the third-most passing yards per game and allowed 25 passing touchdowns through 12 games. With the weapons that Minnesota has offensively, expect a big game out of good ole’ Kirk Cousins.

Russell Wilson, SEA @ LAR

DK ($ 6,900) FD ($8,000)

The current runner-up to the MVP is definitely a solid quarterback option this week. Against the Rams in Week 5, Wilson torched them for 268 yards and four touchdowns. The Rams don’t scare me as much as others that I am seeing. I don’t expect that type of performance but something in that ballpark wouldn’t be too eye-opening.

Week 14 Quarterback Fades

Gardner Minshew II, LAC vs JAX

DK ($5,400) FD ($6,600)

Minshew Mania is back as the Jaguars announced he will be the starter for the remainder of the season. However, it’s because of Nick Foles’ play and not because Minshew was the bright star off the bench. The Chargers are one of the best teams against the pass this season and should shut Minshew and the Jaguars passing game down this week.

Andy Dalton, CIN @ CLE

DK ($5,200) FD ($7,000)

After being viewed as the savior returning to the starting role and picking up Cincinnati’s first victory of the season, I don’t expect much from Dalton. The Bengals aren’t riding that emotional wave of Dalton’s return this week and the Browns are still in the Wild Card hunt. AJ Green will be out for this game as well. Cleveland is 6th in passing defense so don’t expect a lot from the Red Rifle.

Derek Carr, TEN vs OAK

DK ($5,000) FD ($7,000)

Derek Carr is coming off his worst game this season against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Oakland Raiders are struggling right now and have lost their identity. Carr has three consecutive games with at least one interception and I wouldn’t be shocked if he extended that streak. The Titans average just under an interception per game and should pick him off. They do not give up passing touchdowns or allow quarterbacks to get into a rhythm so don’t expect too much out of Derek Carr this week.

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Jameis Winston under 310.5 passing yards and Matt Ryan under 286.5 passing yards.

Indianapolis allows 226.9 passing yards per game and should control the clock in this game. I see a couple of Winston turnovers costing him the opportunity to reach 311 yards or more. Matt Ryan won’t get the chance either as the Panthers have fired Ron Rivera and will probably be run-heavy with a short week with their interim coach. Chrisitan McCaffrey should dominate this game and not give Ryan a lot of time with the ball.

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Another awesome week of NFL DFS Cash Games for the Win Daily Team in Week Seven – even the sample lineup from last week’s Checkdown crossed the pay-line in DraftKings single entry cash games! Let’s get right back to it for the Week Eight Checkdown for your NFL DFS Cash Games.

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My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFL DFS Cash Games updates.

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.

Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week Eight, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • There are a lot of mid-tier options at the WR position, but at first glance, I strongly suggest locking in one “stud” top-tier WR.
  • I do think you need to build around Saquon Barkley. At first glance, I was going to fade the top-tier RBs, but I’m not nearly as confident in the running backs outside of Barkley.
  • Just because someone is not included in this write-up, does not mean you cannot play them in cash. These are all just my preferred plays for an optimal cash game build.

NFL DFS Cash Games Quarterbacks

  1. Russell Wilson ($7,200) – Top play at the QB position on paper for Week Eight. If Matt Ryan were to miss this game with an ankle injury, I will fade Russell at this price due my concerns with the Falcons’ ability to keep this game close without Ryan.
  2. Deshaun Watson ($7,100) – Oakland is terrible at defending the pass. The Texans don’t really have a strong running game so they will need a lot of production from Watson in the game with the highest total on Vegas’ board. Watson should be a lock for that 300-yard passing bonus on DraftKings.
  3. Matthew Stafford ($6,100) – Solid price, good matchup. I was honestly a bit shocked to see an opening total of 50 points for this Giants at Lions matchup in Week Eight. The Lions have been having a tough time moving the ball via the run, so I’m confident the Lions’ will rely on Stafford and these talented pass-catchers to beat up on a weak Giants’ secondary. Hopefully this game can shootout like Vegas predicts.
  4. Derek Carr ($5,000) – I touched base on the Texans’ secondary last week when writing up Jacoby Brissett. They are riddled with injuries and have given up the sixth most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks this year.

    I have no doubt the Texans’ will be scoring points in this game which should lead to a great gamescript for DFS players interested in Derek Carr. Incredible price for a QB in what should be the highest scoring game on the slate. Using Carr opens up a lot for the rest of your NFL DFS Cash Game roster.
  5. Mitch Trubisky ($4,900) – This is gross, but the price is incredible. The Chargers’ defense is in shambles and I’m quite confident Trubisky can hit 3x value on this slate, easily.

NFL DFS Cash Games Running Backs

  1. Saquon Barkley ($8,900) – As of now, I’m going to pass on using Christian McCaffrey ($9,200) at his price. I didn’t use any Barkley in Week Seven DFS as I was a bit nervous to pay a top-tier price for a running back coming off of a significant injury.

    Barkley looks like he is a full go moving into Week Eight against a Lions defense that has allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Look for Barkley to get much more involved in the passing game as well this week, which greatly increases his value.
  2. Leonard Fournette ($7,800) – The Jets’ defense has been respectable, but I’ll keep going back to Fournette while he’s priced under $8k. The dude is averaging damn near 25 touches per game and it doesn’t appear that Fournette’s volume is going to decrease. In cash games, volume is key, so lock-in Fournette with confidence.
  3. Chris Carson ($7,000) – The Falcons’ defense is broken. Carson should have a heavy workload (per usual) on the road in Atlanta in Week Eight. Week Seven was disappoint for Carson but he will bounce back this week.
  4. Le’Veon Bell ($6,900) – Le’Veon Bell is an absolute workhorse and is another one of those few running backs who is averaging over 22 touches per game. At this price, Bell appears to be a no-brainer for NFL DFS Cash Games in Week Eight.
  5. Nick Chubb ($6,600) – Nick Chubb under $7k? Yea, I’ll play him.
  6. Josh Jacobs ($5,800) – I’d rather play Derek Carr and an Oakland pass-catcher, but this is simply a value play. Jacobs has been getting a ton of volume lately and continues to run a few routes in the passing game (which hopefully will increase). The Texans bleed receptions to opposing running backs and have been allowing over 26 DraftKings points per game to opposing backs over the past month.

    Jacobs should be a lock for 25+ touches again in Week Eight but he’s priced like a running back in a timeshare. Take advantage of that if you need some salary relief at the RB position.
  7. Latavius Murray ($5,800) – Murray is coming off of arguably the best game of his NFL career (or at least since he left the Raiders) and should be able to build on that in Week Eight against a weak Arizona Defense. Murray is a lock-button if Alvin Kamara is ruled out.
  8. Devonta Freeman ($5,500) – Matt Ryan appears to be active for this game at home against the Seahawks so I have a lot of faith in Atlanta at least moving the ball on offense. Freeman is still priced at a great spot for a guy who can easily end up with five or more catches and 100 all-purpose yards. Excellent value for cash. No Matt Ryan.
  9. Ty Johnson ($4,900) – Kerryon Johnson to the IR – Welcome to Ty Johnson chalk week. I’m confident he’ll get the majority of the work, but I’m a bit nervous that J.D. McKissic will be heavily involved as well. I think there is 100% a case to fade Ty Johnson this week but it’s not necessary in cash games.
  10. Carlos Hyde ($4,700) – There isn’t a whole lot of value targets at the running back position this week, but Hyde seems to be one of the few. I have Hyde projected for 18 carries, 75 yards, and a touchdown. That will be more than enough to hit value in cash games.

Wide Receivers

  1. DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100) – Top WR on the slate. Hopkins is starting to heat up and should feast yet again in Week Eight at home against the Raiders.
  2. Michael Thomas ($8,000) – Thomas is averaging over 23 DraftKings points per game and over 10 targets per game. How do you not play him?
  3. Chris Godwin ($7,100) – Godwin is averaging the most DraftKings points per game at the wide receiver position. If you would have told me that prior to the season starting, I would have said you’re crazy. Yet, here we are. Godwin continues to be 100% cash viable although I still haven’t fully bought in. Pivoting to Evans if I play any Bucs’ wideouts.
  4. Tyler Lockett ($7,000) – I love attacking Damontae Kazee and this Falcons’ secondary. Lockett should have no issues having his way with them on Sunday.
  5. Kenny Golladay ($6,400) – I think Kerryon Johnson’s injury is going to push the Lions towards passing the ball more. Golladay should see a lot of DeAndre Baker in coverage and that is music to my ears. Golladay is one of my favorite wide receiver plays on the slate.
  6. Mike Evans ($6,600) – I’m off of Godwin and on to Mike Evans. Evans should feast in this matchup against Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler while Logan Ryan deals with slowing down Chris Godwin. $500 discount off of Godwin is too much to ignore.
  7. Allen Robinson ($6,000) – Just keep playing him at a discount. Robinson is the only bright spot on the Bears’ offense and continues to rake in the targets from whoever is under center. Robinson lines up all over the field so there are no concerns of an all-day matchup against Casey Hayward.
  8. John Brown ($5,900) – Attack the Eagles’ secondary every week. John Brown is always one play away from breaking the slate and also provides a solid floor needed in cash games. I have Brown projected for 110 receiving yards and a touchdown. He should have no problems getting the ball often on Sunday.
  9. Larry Fitzgerald ($5,400) – Fitzgerald is only in this writeup because of the $700 discount from his $6,100 price tag he carried in Week Seven. P.J. Williams is suspended for one more game so this isn’t my usual “pick on P.J.” week, but the price is right for Fitzgerald this week.
  10. Courtland Sutton ($5,300) – I have no idea what it will take for Sutton to be priced up in the $6k range where he belongs. Sutton is owning the Broncos’ air yards and red zone targets and that doesn’t appear to be stopping any time soon. Sutton offers us a very nice value at the WR position.
  11. Zay Jones ($3,000) – I’m confident newly acquired Zay Jones will finally be active on Sunday against the Texans. Jones has had a few weeks to acclimate himself with the Raiders’ offense and should be their second best option in the passing game (assuming Tyrell Williams is out) behind tight end, Darren Waller. If he suits up, this is a great buy-low week on Zay Jones.

Tight Ends

  1. Darren Waller ($5,900) – Keep playing Waller, he is an absolute stud and should be heavily active in this shootout against the Texans.
  2. Austin Hooper ($5,500) – Hooper has gone for double-digit DraftKings points in all but one game this season. Hooper enters this week in an excellent matchup against the Seahawks. I will downgrade him a bit if Matt Ryan is ruled out but he is certainly cash viable without Ryan.
  3. Evan Engram ($5,300) – Nice discount for a top-tier tight end. The Lions have had troubles all season long with opposing tight ends.
  4. Zach Ertz ($5,100) – I know he hasn’t done a whole lot this year, but Ertz should never be priced under $6k. This is a great price for one of the best tight ends in the NFL.
  5. Hunter Henry ($4,900) – Great price, great matchup. Henry will continue to be a top target for Phil Rivers’ and this Chargers’ passing game. I don’t love his ceiling this week, but I do have him projected for 75 yards and a score.
  6. Jonnu Smith ($2,800) – Jonnu Smith opens up the world for our cash game roster construction now that Delanie Walker has been ruled out.

Defense/Special Teams

  1. Los Angeles Rams ($3,800)
  2. San Francisco 49ers ($3,700)
  3. Tennessee Titans ($3,200)
  4. Indianapolis Colts ($2,900)
  5. New York Jets ($2,600)

NFL DFS Cash Games – Sample Lineup

QB: Derek Carr
RB: Le’Veon Bell
RB: Chris Carson
WR: Michael Thomas
WR: Allen Robinson
WR: Zay Jones
TE: Hunter Henry
FLEX: Nick Chubb
DST: New York Jets

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Trust me, I didn’t get this role just because I once led my intramural football team to the playoffs as a 5’10, 270 quarterback at (then) Southwest Texas State (now Texas State University). Regardless, welcome to Week 1 DFS QB Picks, where we’ll break down the best plays via Cash Game, GPP and the tried and true punt.

All QBs are listed in order of preference/rank in each section

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Listen to our DFS Podcast on Week One QB picks below.

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

Deshaun Watson HOU @ NO

DK ($6,800), FD ($8,500) 

Even with the addition of RB Carlos Hyde, this is the year the Texans climb out of the bottom third in passing attempts, and it begins on Monday night. Houston was 22nd in passing plays per game in 2018 (22nd overall), and a increase in passing plays — with a healthy Will Fuller V and the addition of Duke Johnson — means Watson can increase his 2.469 air yards (5th best in 2018).

I don’t see where the Saints greatly improved a defense that ranked 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. This feels almost like a layup here since Watson finished in the Top 10 in Fantasy scoring among QBs 10 times in 2018 that included a pair of number ones in Week 8 and Week 12. The supporting cast is addition by subtraction, so I’d think he’ll get improve upon his 3.32 Supporting Cast Efficiency (SCE), which ranked 17th. This is Monday Night Money to finish it off if you are playing the full 16-game slate.

Russell Wilson SEA vs. CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($8,200) 

The Bengals were 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season and will have a hard time keeping Wilson from taking shots downfield. Seattle was dead last in team passing plays (29.9) but Wilson made the most of his deep shots, finishing second in the league with a 46.7% completion rate and placed third in air yards per attempt at 5.1. That he topped all passers with a production premium of +28 was helped in part that he placed fifth with 31 money throws along with the fact Wilson had the best SCE (Supporting Cast Efficiency) in the league with 19.24.

Of course, his numbers will climb if he ran more than he did last season. I can’t promise when and where, but Wilson will score a rushing touchdown or two this season. That he was sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards was one of 2018’s odd numbers, and while I don’t think he’ll return to the top, he’ll be a more efficient runner. Cincy was 27th in rushing yards per game allowed to quarterbacks, making Wilson a good play in cash games.

Drew Brees NO vs. HOU

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,000) 

Father Time is trying to blitz Brees, but it’s not going to work Monday night. Brees trailed only Wilson when it came to SCE (14.06) while remaining ruthlessly efficient, topping the league in true completion percentage at a staggering 78.8% along with averaging .56 Fantasy points per dropback (2nd). Houston was 21st in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers and that was with Jadeveon Clowney, who is now in Seattle. Like Wilson, he brings pain when going deep, as his 45.6% completion rate when dialing it up was third overall.

Houston is notorious when it comes to getting sucked into play-action, making Brees more valuable in cash game, as he completed 75% of his attempts when in play-action. Having the likes of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara is exactly why Brees was fourth in money throws last season (33) and should be able to produce a money throw or two to make cash gamers feel at ease selecting him on the full 16-game slate. Both he and Watson will be popular Showdown style choices.

Featured Image of Carson Wentz via Keith Allison


Week 1 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,600) 

Wentz is going to need a quarter or two to get some rust off considering he’s played as many preseason snaps as me or your wife. I couldn’t put him in cash games despite the temptation and the wealth of talent he has surrounding him. He was a mediocre 1.75 in SCE last season, but I’d venture adding Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, DeSean Jackson and preseason sensation J.J. Arcega-Whiteside jumps him from his 18th place finish last season.

Wentz was 21st in air yards (1,745), understandable since the Eagles aren’t a bombs away team. The new faces should get his -1.4 production premium into the black and you have to keep in mind his 3.1 accuracy rating was second overall. Close but not quite a cash gamer, but a strong GPP play.

Patrick Mahomes, KC at JAX

DK ($7,200), FD ($8,700) 

Don’t be the fool who’s so enamored with Mahomes that you’re convinced he’d shred the 1976 Steelers defense. Mahomes is not a cash gamer, but there will more than enough fools who’ll think otherwise. It’s not my job to tell grown people what to do, but…

Mahomes has flaws, and the Jaguars defense is capable of exploiting them, especially at home. Mahomes topped the league in production premium at +28, but he was just 14th in true completion percentage (71.7%) and red zone competion percentage (63.5%). This is not the week to envision him averaging 25.9 Fantasy points per game even though he’ll pick up where he left off in deep ball attempts (91). The potential Tyreek Hill vs. Jalen Ramsey matchup favors Ramsey; opponents tested him 28 times on go/out routes last season with only one touchdown to show for it. Something to keep in mind..

Aaron Rodgers, GB at CHI

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,200) 

Good Number: The Packers were 10th in red zone attempts last season (73). He is basically your only choice with a Thursday night showdown entry. He may not be widely owned on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Forty-nine (yes, Virginia, 49) passers had a better red zone completion rate than Rodgers’ 61.5%.

Tom Brady, NE vs. PIT

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600) 

Good Number: Tommy Touchdown had the league’s best protection rate (90.1). That alone makes him a strong Week 1 DFS QB Picks play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: He’s really, really, really going to need a healthy and focused Josh Gordon to improve his receiver target separation of 1.39, 28th best overall.

Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. ATL

DK ($5,500), FD ($7,400) 

Good Number: Bring your blitzes, damn you! Cousins welcomes it, finishing third with a 49.7% completion rate when facing pressure.

Bad Number: Vikings backs and receivers dropped 31 passes last season, fifth-highest in the league. In a way, you can’t fault Cousins on that, but still…

Phillip Rivers, LAC vs. IND

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,500) 

Good Number: Rivers loves to pass the football on the left hand side, accounting for 1,619 yards and 14 touchdowns last season when throwing to the side of the southpaw.

Bad Number: His 13.57 SCE, which ranked third last season, takes a considerable hit without having Melvin Gordon available.

Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. TEN

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,900) 

Good Number: Mayfield quietly finished fifth in production premium at +13.1.

Bad Number: Hopefully, the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. will lead to a reduction of the 32 dropped passes the Browns recorded last season.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at NE

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600) 

Good Number: Even without Antonio Brown, it’s hard to imagine the Steelers not leading the league in passing plays per game, as they did last season (44.6). That makes him a GPP play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Big Ben lives dangerously, evidenced by the 32 danger plays he recorded last season, the fifth-highest total in the league.

Jared Goff, LAR @ CAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800) 

Good Number: Goff finished third with 2,617 air yards last season. Once Cooper Kupp gets into form, the Rams will remain a dangerous offense with quick-strike potential.

Bad Number: The Super Bowl showed how Goff fares when facing constant heat. He finished 25th in pressured completion percentage with 31.3%.

Matt Ryan, ATL @ MIN

DK ($6,100), FD ($8,000) 

Good Number: No one topped Ryan in air yards last season as he racked up 2,876 yards.

Bad Number: Ryan’s 79.5% protection rate was only 25th overall. That has to be good news for those DFSers considering the Vikings defense.

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,400) 

Yes, the rushing yards will be there, especially in the red zone. That’s a good thing considering Jackson’s 37.5% completion rate inside the opponents’ 20-yard line was 54th overall. That is not enough to merit consideration as a Week 1 DFS QB Picks candidate.

Cam Newton, CAR vs. LAR

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,900) 

No one mastered the play-action pass like Newton last season, as he completed 75.7% of his attempts when pulling defenses in. Helps to have Christian McCaffrey in the backfield.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. NYG

DK ($5,900), FD ($6,700) 

Ezekiel Elliott got P-A-I-D early Wednesday morning, which eliminates the prospect of Prescott getting the bulk of red zone touches. Elliott’s return also cripples the chances of Prescott being a potential top 12 quarterback, a plateau he reached just six times last season.

Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. BUF

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500) 

The presence of Le’Veon Bell alone assures Darnold’s SCE of -14.03 (31st) takes a rapid climb up the elevator. That, and a season’s worth of experience, will also help him avoid the number of danger plays (30) he put up as a rookie.

Derek Carr, OAK vs. DEN

DK ($5.400), FD ($6,600) 

Carr’s true completion percentage of 75.6% was third-best last season, and the additions of Antonio Brown and rookie back Josh Jacobs will improve an already-solid 4.77 SCE.

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