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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Thanks to yesterday’s rainout we have a 3 game slate of MLB playoff baseball today. My goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must. Let’s dig in to today’s slate!MLB DFS: Pitching            Pitching today is very different than yesterday.  Yesterday we had the likes of Max Scherzer and Freddy Peralta while today has the likes of Tony Gonsolin and Eric Lauer.  They are solid pitchers, but nothing like their counterparts from yesterday.My top pitcher today is Lance McCullers.  McCullers tends to strike out batters from the right side at a little bit of a higher clip.  In 2021 he struck out righties at a 28.4% clip vs. 26.2% for lefties.  McCullers also throws his slider heavily to righties, more than 44% of the time.  The core to the White Sox l...

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Welcome to the Monday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have our final 4 game slate of the 2021 MLB Division Series.  All 8 playoff teams are in action.My goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must. Let’s dig in to today’s slate!MLB DFS: Pitching            As we’ve seen for the most part with pitching so far, we’ll want to pick the pitchers that will do the least damage while also grabbing some K’s to thwart off the damage.  We’ve only seen a handful of truly dominant outings so far between Webb, Fried, and Morton.  The first guy I’m going to look to today is Freddy Peralta vs. the Atlanta Braves.  Peralta hasn’t pitched in more than 2 weeks.  With him we’re dealing with a rested pitcher but also a pitcher that may show some rust.  He has just as much K upside as anyone else throwing ...

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Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have our first 4 game slate of the 2021 MBL Division Series.  All 8 playoff teams are in actionMy goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must. Let’s dig in to today’s slate!MLB DFS: The AcesMy pitching pool today will consist of 3 pitchers.  Corbin Burnes ($10.4 FD/$9.1k DK), Walker Buehler ($9.9k FD/$8.5k DK), and Shane Baz ($7.8k FD/$6.3k DK).  Let’s start with Burnes.  I’m going to ignore his final start of the year because it was a meaningless 2 inning start.  I want to focus on the three starts before that.  He K’d 14 Indians, 11 Cubs, and then 9 Mets.  That’s 34 K’s in just 21 innings.  No one on this slate has the strike out upside as Burnes has.  Burnes is going to face a predominantly right handed lineup today.  He has a 37% K rate vs. them in 2021 and gave up just a .061 ISO.   No pitcher is safe today, but Burnes is th...

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Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a full 15 game final slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. 

My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.  With today’s slate we are going to see a much smaller tournament pool with NFL in play.  Today’s a day to scale back as the risk just won’t worth the reward. 

When Manfred designed up having a second Wild Card spot what is occurring in the American League is probably what he had in mind.  There is a logjam in the AL for both Wild Cards.  The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners are all battling for the 2 spots and are within a game of each other.  If the Red Sox and Yankees both lose today and the Blue Jays and Mariners both win they are in.  The Red Sox and Yankees are tied and cling to a 1 game lead over both the Mariners and Blue Jays. They win and they are in.

If we head out west today, the Giants and Dodgers are still battling for the NL West crown.  We have the two teams with the most wins in the league.  The winner of the NL West gets a few days off while the loser has to take on the red hot Cardinals in the Wild Card game.  They will both be bringing it full force today. 

This is shaping up to be the best final Sunday of baseball we’ve had in years.

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Logan Webb ($8.7k) vs. San Francisco Giants – After a horrendous start vs. the Padres, Webb returned to form against the Dbacks with a 5 inning 6K effort.  I’m not as worried with the going back to the well again against the Padres because it wasn’t really the Padres that did him in last time out.  His command was off and never looked comfortable. 

The Giants need to Webb to shine today to get them the W.  The Padres over the last week have been very underwhelming.  They have a 24% K rate and have hit for very limited power.  I’m locking in Webb today and not looking back. 

Dylan Cease ($9k) vs. Detroit Tigers – I don’t expect Cease to throw more than 90 pitches today so we probably only get him for 5 to 6 innings.  In his last outing vs. the Indians he went 5 innings and struck out 9 before leaving with an injury.  No pitcher today has the K upside as Cease, even if he has an abbreviated outing. 

At only $9k I’m ok stomaching a shorter than normal outing.  Cease’s main strike out pitch is his slider and if it’s on today, he’s going to have a solid game.  Up and down the Tigers lineup they have whiff rates exceeding 30%.  Look for Cease to have a solid game today and end up as one of the highest scoring pitchers.  The only thing that may stop him today is the weather.  So keep an eye on the forecast.  

Reiver Sanmartin ($7.1k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Sanmartin looked pretty decent in his first outing this year.  He was able to strike out 5 Pirates through 5.2 innings.  While the Pirates have been a pretty low strike out team this year, they’ve been striking out more of late.  Over the last week they’ve been striking out nearly 25% of the time. 

Sanmartin is getting the same match up against the Pirates but he should still be able to breeze through them again.  He mostly throws a slider to lefties and should face 5 of them today.  Those guys all have whiff rates over 35% against sliders.  I really like his chances of ending the season on a strong note. 

Outside of Webb, the pitchers that are in the playoff scenario spots all look like they have poor match ups.  Sale is facing a young stingy team in the Nationals that are all out to make a name for themselves.  There’s no better spot for them to do it in than this.  Ryu is not in good form and I can see the Orioles exploding on him.  Buehler is facing a Brewers team that will throw out a bunch of lefties.  That’s his weakness.  Tyler Anderson of the Mariners is very inconsistent and I have no faith in him.  

MLB DFS: The Bats

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Bruce Zimmermann – Blue Jays lose today and they are out.  If we look at Zimmermann’s outing vs. the Red Sox this week we’ll see a pitcher that gave up 2 hits in 4 innings of work while only allowing 1 runner to score.  Box scores don’t tell the whole story.  He also gave up a 58% fly ball rate, an 88% contact rate, and didn’t give up any soft contact.  He’s going to get hit today and he’s going to hit very hard. 

We have 3 guys in the middle of the lineup today that are just crushing lefties right now.  Bichette ($3.9k)Guerrero ($4k), and Hernandez ($3.4k) all have ISO’s against lefties over .364 since early September.  We’re not talking about a small sample size.  While we normally talk about picking our pitchers first, I’m building the rest of my lineup today around them. 

The other guy I’ll look to add in here is Santiago Espinal ($2.1k).  He’s cheap and will help us stomach paying the salaries of the Blue Jays core.  He’s also red hot over the last week with a .955 OPS and 8 hard hits in just 20 at bats.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jameson Taillon – On the final day of the season, this is my ode to Brian.  I fully expect the Rays to play their regulars today.  If they don’t, their regulars will have had 4 days off between games and that’s just asking for too much rust heading into the playoffs.  I also expect them to try their hardest to get he Yankees to have to play even more baseball. 

Taillon is a good pitcher, but if he has a weakness it’s lefties.  They have a 54% fly ball rate vs. his him this year and a near .200 ISO.  His walk rate also jumps from just 4% to righties to 12% against lefties.  The Rays are normally pretty under owned, but I think we see that get to a whole new level today. 

After a 3 homer day yesterday Lowe ($3.6k) sits just one away from 40.  He gets it with a lead off homer today.  I’ll also want Meadows ($3.1k) and Choi ($2.4k) here.  They have ISO’s at .200 or better vs. righties over the last month.  The Rays were a big staple of the WDS family this year and there’s no reason to change it on the final day of the year. 

Seattle Mariners vs. Reid Detmers – Mariners get one of the best match ups of the teams playing for their playoff lives.  Detmers hasn’t pitched much this year in the majors due to not being good and also sitting out a month with Covid.  On the year he has a 6.48 xFIP and has given up a 46% fly ball rate.  He’s been pretty bad against both sides of the plate so I’m going to go with Mariners that hit lefties the best. 

Hello Mr. Haniger ($3.9k) and your .301 ISO against lefties over the last month.  I also really like Torrens ($2.3k) here who sports a .242 ISO over the last 30 days vs. lefties.  I wouldnt’s shy away from lefties like Kelenic ($3.2k) and Seager ($3.2k).  Detmers shouldn’t last long in this game and righties from the bullpen will eventually pitch.  Look for the Mariners to squeak into an extra playoff game tomorrow. 

If you want to play some Orioles today, I wouldn’t blame you.  Ryu is attackable and hasn’t been in the best form in his last couple of outings.  The Orioles have also had some success vs. him this year. 

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

What a final day of the season we have in store today.  While the contests are smaller, it should be a fun day.  We have 6 games today that involve teams with playoff implications.  That’s nearly half the games today.  Sit back, play some DFS, and enjoy the last day of the regular season. 

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the "best plays" but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!Main Slate BreakdownHello, again my friends, and welcome into a 9 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate here on Thursday where the playoff race is red-hot and we have almost half the slate tonight presenting us games with playoff implications. The Giants/Dodgers remain just 2 games apart in the NL West and the AL Wild Card is a jumbled mess with the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mariners all jockeying for two spots with just days to play!Pitc...

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Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 9 gameslate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.  We are heading into the final weekend and we still have some teams battling for their playoff live.  Phillies are on the cusp of elimination as they sit 4.5 games out.  One more loss for them or one more win for the Braves and they are out.  Giants still hold a 2 game lead over the Dodgers for the NL West and you can be rest assured both teams are going to bust their tails to ensure they don’t have to play in the Wild Card game against a surging Cardinals team.  We are now down to 4 teams remaining in the AL Wild Card race.  Toronto is one game out of the Wild Card while the Mariners are just a half game.  Bos and NYY currently hold both the AL Wild Cards.  This is shaping up to be just an aw...

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Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the "best plays" but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!Main Slate BreakdownWelcome in my friends to a 13 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where we are officially in the final days of the regular season and there are a handful of games where playoff lives are on the line. Now, we saw last night where the arms that simply had to win - went out and balled - as arms like Charlie Morton, Walker Buehler and Zack Wheeler led the scoring in playoff-like atmospheres. Tonight we can expect much more of ...

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 13 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.  We are in the home stretch and there are only a handful of teams that are playing for anything right now.  NYY, BOS, TOR, Sea, and OAK are all battling for the 2 wild card spots in the AL.  Braves and Phillies are battling for the NL east and the Dodgers are currently chasing the Giants for the NL West crown.  At this point of the year, my pitchers will mostly come from those teams as we’re certain to get the regular outings out of them. Let’s dig in to today’s slate!MLB DFS: The AcesBrandon Woodruff ($10.2k) vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Cardinals have to lose at some point right?  Well I think it’s today against the Brewers Ace.  Over the last 30 days Woodruff has been superb.  He has a 2.73 xFIP to go with his elite 32% K rate.  He...

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Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a smaller than normal 8 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.  With today’s slate we are going to see a much smaller tournament pool with NFL in play.  Today’s a day to scale back as the risk just won’t worth the reward. Let’s dig in to today’s slate!MLB DFS: The AcesFreddy Peralta ($9.4k) vs. New York Mets – The New York Mets are playing listless baseball right now.  After being in first place the majority of the year, they’ve essentially mailed it in.  Losers of 9 out of their last 10 they get a tough matchup in Peralta today.  Peralta over the last month is in peak form as the Brewers get ready for the playoffs.  His K rate is approaching 35% and his hard hit rate is below 24%.  While there’s concern with his pitch count limitations, he did reach 90 pitche...

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Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the "best plays" but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!Main Slate BreakdownWelcome my friends into a big Friday Night of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have 15 games, tons of aces, a game in Coors that has an NFL-like implied total, and everything in between!What is fascinating to me tonight is the pitching pricing - one day after DraftKings priced down arms like Aaron Nola and Charlie Morton nearly $2K lower than usual, it is like they are trying to correct it tonight by going absolutely bonkers...

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