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Welcome to Wednesday's edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll go through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Hump Day!  It’s Wednesday and that brings us another split slate of MLB DFS.  I’m going to be focused on tonight’s 7 game slate. Pitching on this slate is mostly atrocious.  The one true ace on this slate is Blake Snell and he gets a dance with the Dodgers.  This does however mean we should have plenty of spots for stacks tonight.   

Let’s dig in and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Blake Snell vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

I touched on this in the opener, but the one true ace on this slate is Blake Snell and he gets a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.  It’s a scary matchup but Blake Snell has been an absolute beast this season.  His K rate has been down a bit of late, but it’s still over 30% over the last month. 

Is he safe tonight?  Far, very far from it.  But his price is down from where it’s been as he’s only $10.1k on DK ...

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Welcome to the Friday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have our first 4 game slate of the 2021 MBL Division Series.  All 8 playoff teams are in actionMy goal today will be to walk you through where my mind is with pitching and then focus on some bats that are a must. Let’s dig in to today’s slate!MLB DFS: The AcesMy pitching pool today will consist of 3 pitchers.  Corbin Burnes ($10.4 FD/$9.1k DK), Walker Buehler ($9.9k FD/$8.5k DK), and Shane Baz ($7.8k FD/$6.3k DK).  Let’s start with Burnes.  I’m going to ignore his final start of the year because it was a meaningless 2 inning start.  I want to focus on the three starts before that.  He K’d 14 Indians, 11 Cubs, and then 9 Mets.  That’s 34 K’s in just 21 innings.  No one on this slate has the strike out upside as Burnes has.  Burnes is going to face a predominantly right handed lineup today.  He has a 37% K rate vs. them in 2021 and gave up just a .061 ISO.   No pitcher is safe today, but Burnes is th...

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Today's edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel's nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!The ugliest weather is in St. Louis, and there's a good shot at a delay or postponement there. Some other trouble spots to be aware of as well, but the Cubs-Cards is the worst of it.MLB DFS: The AcesTop MLB DFS Ace: Lucas Giolito ($9,900)Giolito has pretty balanced splits against both sides of the plate, which is a good thing when facing a Tigers lineup that's full of switch-hitters. While there are some rain concerns in this game, most of the heavy stuff probably stays south of the ballpark, and there's a good chance they just play through some lighter rain. It's one of the early games, so we'll have to check back on the radar before lock and hopefully get confirmation there's no late start or delay -- which could complicate things. But I love his upside on a slate where Corbin Burnes and Julio Urias both have tough matchups and could have an...

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather that will likely impact play, and best hitting environments are in Baltimore, Cincinnati, Coors Field and Anaheim.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Corbin Burnes ($11,100)

He’s the top ace of the day with a fine matchup against the Mets, and will likely be the most popular for cash games. With an obnoxious, almost unheard-of 1.58 FIP and 2.34 ERA in line with his 2.31 XFIP, Burnes is having a historic season. His 12.59 K/9 is amazing, but it’s even more implausible when we consider the 1.82 BB/9 rate. The Mets just got flummoxed by Eric Lauer last night, and now they face a pitcher with a curveball/cutter combo that’s among the best we’ve seen over the past 20 years. Lock him into cash lineups and move on.

Best GPP Play: Robbie Ray ($10,800)

Ray has had two poor starts among his last three, but his regularity in the 45-70 point range this season means he’s the best GPP play on the board against the Twins in Minnesota. We could see some portion of the field move to Burnes given the recency bias of Ray’s last start. The Toronto ace shouldn’t have too many problems with the righty-heavy Twins lineup, and although they hit fastballs well, Ray’s is among the best in baseball. Adam Strangis goes through some of the same rationales in his excellent Starting Rotation article for 9/25, and while that mainly looks at DK pricing, the thought process only affirms itself even more on FD, where you have to choose one pitcher. Ray is the best GPP option considering price and upside.

Contrarian GPP Play: Lance Lynn ($10,000)

He’s a contrarian play based on the other two pitcher I’ve discussed, so if you really want to get different I don’t have a problem with using Lynn in large-field GPPs. For single entry I’d prefer both Burnes and Ray, but Lynn does have some upside in this matchup vs. Cleveland and still boasts ands nice 30-35 point floor because of his solid metrics (3.26 FIP and 27.8% K rate). The mases won’t be on him, so maybe he’s a good pivot in one-third to half your multi-entry lineups.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Francisco Giants

If we can fit these guys, I think today is one of the days we have to play them. Brandon Crawford ($3,900), LaMonte Wade, Jr. ($3,800), Tommy La Stella ($3,600), Brandon Belt ($4,300) and Kris Bryant ($4,300) and Evan Longoria ($3,700) are not cheap, but I’m hoping we can find a way to get a full four-man stack in there with a couple of value plays from the Reds and a two more (one-offs or two-man mini stack). , Mike Yastrzemski ($3,800) is day-to-day after being removed from Friday’s contest with knee soreness, so keep an eye on who starts in the outfield. We may find a player like Alex Dickerson ($2,500) in a good spot at a reduced salary.

GPP Value Stack: Cincinnati Reds

This just feels like a Reds day facing Erick Fedde, and they’ve got good hitting weather, a hittable pitcher, and a lineup peppered with enough value plays that will let us spend at SP without much discomfort. I’m looking at four-man combinations of the following hitters: Joey Votto ($4,100), Nick Castellanos ($3,800), Max Schrock ($2,100), Jonathan India ($3,500), Tucker Barnhart ($2,200), Kyle Farmer ($3,300) and T.J. Friedl ($2,100). And that’s in order of priority.

GPP Value Stack #2: Seattle Mariners

Angels SP Jaime Barria has an xFIP over 5.00, and we have a slew of relatively inexpensive hitters from both sides of the plate who match up well in this spot. Prioritize the 1-5 hitters, especially J.P. Crawford ($3,000), Ty France ($3,000) and Mitch Haniger ($3,600) and mix in guys like Jake Fraley ($2,000) and Abraham Toro ($2,400) if you’re tight on salary.

Bonus Contrarian Stacks: Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 10 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.  With today’s slate we are going to see a much smaller tournament pool with NFL starting.  Today’s a day to scale back as the risk just won’t worth the reward.  At first look I wasn’t going to play, but it’s a fun looking slate so I’m going to play. Let’s dig in to today’s slate!MLB DFS: The AcesLogan Webb ($9.7k) vs. Chicago Cubs – Logan Webb has been one of the best and most consistent pitchers over the past month.  Over his last 7 starts he hasn’t been under 40 FD points, with 3 of them going for at least 50.  With a match up vs. the Cubs today I see no reason he doesn’t get to 40 again.  Let’s start by looking at why he’s been so great over the last month.  The two things I’m looking at the most a...

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No rain in the forecast but we do have winds blowing out in St. Louis for the Reds-Cards game — something to consider for Cincinnati GPP stacks.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($9,700)

We can chalk up his last outing (3 IP, 7 H, 1 K, 6 ER @SF) to a bad day, and his last start vs. the Padres yielded a solid outcome. The K rate is down a bit in 2021, but the walks are down, the ground ball rate has increased and the solid 2.31 ERA isn’t too far separated from the 3.18/3.59 FIP/xFIP combo. We’re looking at about a 35-40 point projections here, with a 50-point ceiling, and that’s good enough to make him the top SP for cash games and single-entry.

Best GPP Value: Charlie Morton ($9,000)

Morton looks like a solid value tonight against the Marlins, who have the second-highest team K% in MLB. The veteran’s upside probably even exceeds Buehler’s tonight given the matchup, and that upside comes with a built-in discount from the top two arms on the slate in Buehler and Luis Castillo. I’m not as interested in Castillo because of how he can get lit up, especially against a team filled with potent bats like the Cards, but he’d make for a semi-contrarian choice given that tougher matchup. Morton seems to fit the best and carry the highest chance of notching both a QS and W, so he’s my first choice for GPPs.

Contrarian GPP Play: Luis Garcia ($8,300)

Garcia isn’t a very exciting play, but if we need a leverage pivot with some upside, he’s probably it. His ownership should be lower than Morton’s, and he’s seen an uptick in velocity on his pitches lately. The problem is that he’s got a much lower floor than either Morton or Buehler, and while the price is severely discounted compared to DraftKings, he hasn’t notched double-digit Ks in any start this season despite a 10.41 K% because he rarely pitches six full innings.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Houston Astros

The implied run total is well over 5, and the Astros have been red-hot offensively over the past few games, so we should start any stack off with Alex Bregman ($3,200), and then play some combination of Jose Altuve ($3,800) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,400), Carlos Correa ($3,500), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) Yuri Gurriel ($2,900) and value options Michael Brantley ($2,600) and Martin Maldonado ($2,100). There’s really nobody that’s out of consideration given the circular nature of this powerful lineup.

GPP Stack #1: Chicago White Sox

The prices are still relatively affordable for the White Sox (even moreso on DK), with Luis Robert ($3,900), Jose Abreu ($3,800), Eloy Jimenez ($3,500) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,800) all in play for stacks against Red Sox projected starter Connor Seabold. Andrew Vaughn is just $2,300, and both Brian Goodwin ($2,200) and Yoan Moncada ($3,200) are in play as well. It’s simply a great spot for mixing and matching a few different four-man stacks of White Sox.

GPP Stack #2: Cincinnati Reds

Miles Mikolas doesn’t scare me one bit, and while the Reds are a dynamic bunch who can disappoint on occasion, I like the four-man stack of Jonathan India ($3,700), Nick Castellanos ($4,100), Joey Votto ($3,700) and Tyler Naquin ($2,700) the best among this bunch, with Eugenio Suarez ($3,200), Max Schrock ($2,100) and Tucker Barnhart ($2,400) the best of the rest.

Bonus Value Stacks: Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 12 game slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. Let’s dig in to today’s slates!MLB DFS: The AcesBlake Snell ($10.1k) vs. Los Angeles Angels – Blake Snell is on a heater right now and I want to join the ride.  Over the last month Snell has an insane 41% K rate.  He’s reached 9 K’s or more in 3 of his last 4 outings.  With a match up against a struggling Angels lineup I just don’t see how the momentum gets stopped.  Over the last week the Angels have struck out almost 28% of the time.  Snell’s main strike out pitch is his slider.  Outside of Fletcher and Adell this is a pitch that the Angels struggle with as the majority of the lineup tonight have whiff rates over 28%.  The strike outs are going to be there for Snell tonight.  It’s just going to be a matter of how long the Padres let him stay out the...

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Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Cincinnati for the Tigers-Reds game, which if it plays will have to be through heavy rain. If the forecasts changes we can consider the Reds hitters against LHP Matthew Boyd, but this game has a good shot at a PPD so it might just be too risky even for bats.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Framber Valdez ($9,800)

There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, but Valdez offers the best shot at a decent floor with GPP-winning upside. He’s likely where a lot of folks will be starting their cash game builds. If he can avoid the big blow from Fernando Tatis Jr. and navigate through the rest of this lefty-heavy lineup, I’m confident he’ll be sitting somewhere in that 29-46 point range where he’s lived comfortably in his last seven starts. Valdez sports a relatively pedestrian 22.4% K rate this season, but he’s posted at least 6 Ks in five of his last six starts and the Padres don’t necessarily destroy lefty pitching. This slate isn’t pretty for starting pitching, but Valdez is likely the best we’ve got.

Best GPP Value: Reynaldo Lopez ($8,100)

The White Sox starting rotation has taken some hits lately, with both Lane Lynn and Lucas Giolito on the shelf — at least temporarily. If Tony La Russa weren’t so old school, I’d be worried about Lopez going the requisite five innings he needs to pick up the win, but if “Pound-em-down” Tony says Lopez is starting, he’s probably willing to let him go 5-6 IP, which should be plenty long enough to make value against the Royals. Lopez had 42 FD points in his last start (against the Cubs) on August 27, striking out 7 in 5.0 IP and notching a win. We could see similar results tonight.

Contrarian GPP Play: Joe Musgrove ($8,800)

As WinDaily’s Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 article, Musgrove worked some magic against the Angels his last time on the bump, and gets another tough test facing the Astros — a team that just doesn’t strike out very much and mashes it around the yard (lowest K-rate in baseball, top three in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP). Musgrove is pitching this game in his team’s NL park, so that helps, and the most recent performance by the Astros against an ancient Jake Arrieta shows that at least they aren’t red-hot heading into the matchup. Both of the implied team totals in this game are under 4 runs, so it could really go either way. I’m assuming that Musgrove’s ownership will be much lower than that of Valdez. If Braves RHP Ian Anderson were looking anything like his 2020 self in his last few starts after returning from injury, I’d have some interest in suing him as a contrarian play in Coors, but that just doesn’t appear to be the wise move tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, so if you’re believer they’ll finally give us the shootout we’ve been promised tonight — have at it. But the past couple of nights have given us the highest totals outside of Coors, which is where we’ll be focusing our attention for tonight’s slate. That starts with Dodgers against LHP Sammy Long in San Francisco in a revenge game. This lineup just lost first place to the Giants last night and they absolutely destroy fastballs, and that’s primarily what Long throws. I’m starting my stacks with Trea Turner ($4,300), Mookie Betts ($4,100), A.J. Pollock ($3,200) and Justin Turner ($3,800), but lefties Max Muncy ($4,000 — if he doesn’t sit) and Corey Seager ($3,800) are in play as well.

The Second-best Stack: Chicago White Sox

If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers in a pitcher’s park, then consider rolling out the White Sox, who project well against young lefty Daniel Lynch. Lynch has been solid lately and has some contrarian upside in his own right tonight, but the smart money (4.95 projected team total for the Sox) is on Luis Robert ($4,200), Jose Abreu ($4,100), Eloy Jimenez ($3,600) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,500) pulvering baseballs and giving us a big offensive night. Andrew Vaughn and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP is the best value option at just $2,500, while Leury Garcia ($2,300) who sports positive splits against LHP (.320 wOBA) makes sense as well if you need the salary savings and need to drop one of the bigger bats.

Value GPP Stack: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels offense just hasn’t been great the last couple of weeks, sporting a relatively weak wRC+ of 78 and .128 ISO over the past 14 days. But that all changes tonight against LHP Kolby Allard. On the season, the splits against LHP are solid, with a team wOBA of .322, ISO of .180 and 105 wRC+, numbers that match well against Allard and his ERA and FIP — both north of 5.00. Plus, the wind is blowing out to right field in a hitter’s park, and the temperature is the highest of any game in the slate. We’re going to see some runs scored in Anaheim tonight, and I’m starting my stacks with Shohei Ohtani ($4,500), David Fletcher ($2,900), Jo Adell ($2,500) and Justin Upton ($2,700). Max Stassi ($2,900) is in play if he starts, and so is “Fabulous” Phil Gosselin ($2,300) if he’s high in the order.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a massive 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day. Let’s dig in to today’s slates!MLB DFS: The AcesBrandon Woodruff ($10.6k) vs. San Francisco Giants – The Giants bats have been scuffling a bit of late and I’ll look to take advantage of that with an ace in Woodruff.  Over the past 30 days Woodruff has been pretty dominant.  He has a 29% K rate and a 3.25 xFIP.  Batters have just a 22% hard hit rate against him over that stretch as well.  This is a match up that lines up really well for him too.  The Giants should have 5 lefties in the lineup.  During the month of August Woodruff has a 36% K rate against lefties.  Really like Woodruff’s chances of having a solid night tonight.Blake Snell ($9.4k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks –...

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Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases.  Today we have a nice sized 13 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through. My goal today will be to walk you through my 3 favorite pitchers and 3 favorite stacks on the day.  We have a great slate lined up with solid options for pitching and stacking.Let’s dig in to today’s slates!MLB DFS: The AcesMax Scherzer ($10.6K) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – There isn’t much to say today to sell you on using Scherzer.  He proved me very wrong last time and showed that he is match up proof.  Scherzer dominated a very solid lineup in the Houston Astros.  Today he faces off against a streaking Phillies team.  Hopefully the day off yesterday cools them down a bit.  On the year Mad Max has been great.  He has an elite 33% K rate and a 3.60 xFIP.  Phillies are a familiar foe as he’s faced them a couple of times already during his Nationals days.  In those 2 outings he combined for 17 K’s.  Look for another sol...

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