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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the CJ Cup @ the Summit Club and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Strong field of 78 golfers replete with big namesNo cutThe course: The Summit Club (Las Vegas, NV)Par 72: 7,431 yards (Tom Fazio design)Bentgrass greensNew PGA Tour venueShould be a birdie-festResort-style course where it’s easy to keep it in playBall strikers and birdie-makers should excel hereFocus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: Tee to Green, Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better %, Eagles GainedThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Justin Thomas (DK $11,100) – JT remains an elite ball striker who excels in approach shots from all distances, which should be the main focus this week. Our boy led the PGA Tour last season in proximity to the hole from the fairway, finishing third in SG: APP and T3 in SG: T2G...
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Shriners Children’s Open and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Some big names in this full field of 156+ GolfersCut: Top 65 and ties play the weekendDefending Champ and former winners:2020 – Martin Laird (-23, beat Matthew Wolff and Austin Cook in playoff))2019 – Kevin Na (-23, beat Patrick Cantlay in playoff)2018 – DeChambeau (-21, another Cantlay second place)2017 – Cantlay (-9 in windy conditions, beat Whee Kim in playoff)Patrick Cantlay NOT in field this year (he’s obviously too cool for school now)The course: TPC Summerlin (Las Vegas, NV)Par 71: 7,255+ yardsBentgrass greensPlayed at altitude, helping shorter hittersEasier setup with shorter Par 4s and three reachable par fivesFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green. SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Birdie ...
It’s Week 2 of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and our PGA DFS picks should help us find some winning teams at the BMW Championship!
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
Jon Rahm (DK $11,700) – He’s No. 1 on my mixed model and is the clear top dog and betting favorite, despite the final few holes at the Northern Trust that saw him slide into solo third place. That finish was good enough for his fourth straight top 10 and 12th of 2021. No reason to move away from him this week other than the possibility he’s carrying some frustration into the BMW.
Xander Schauffele (DK $11,100) – I like the idea of Xander getting a no-cut event on the heels of a weird week that saw him crack 70 only once – a second-round 62 that was a very short-lived tie for the course record. He’s the best option over $10K – albeit a pretty expensive one – that isn’t named Rahm.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,600) – No more discounts for JT, but I love him in GPPs, where his T2G game and ability to make birdies could help him rise to the occasion. He made 66 of 68 putts inside 10 feet last week, but never seemed to follow up his opening round 63 with lights-out play. Perhaps he’s ready to do that in the second week of the playoffs, when the stakes are a little higher.
Tony Finau (DK $9,800) – I joked last week (and so did the Breakdown crew) about how “he’s not much of a threat to win,” but could be a great to help you win a GPP. Well, he won the damn thing – and that confidence boost is just what’s been holding him back in final rounds over the past few years. There’s no way I’m fading him after that gutsy performance.
Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Cameron Smith
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,300) – His distance and ability tot make putts seem tailored for this particular venue, and he shows up as second overall in my mixed model. While his inconsistency and preponderance to make bad decisions – and stupid bogeys – reared their ugly heads at Liberty National, he could dominate at Caves Valley, a venue where power and T2G precision are required. And I love the discount.
Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – We mentioned last week that he prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, and that he’s third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021. Perhaps this week he can put it all together and climb up the leaderboards if a few more putts go down early. A great GPP play with Top 3 upside.
Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – A few days after a broken putter self-sabotaged his final round and tanked a lot of the WinDaily readership’s lineups, we should probably go right back to the ell with Hovland, who’s a T2G monster and normally seems pretty even-keeled on the golf course. With no real course history to look at, he doesn’t lose any advantage that more experienced tour veterans players would normally have.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $8,900) – Scheffler seems almost mispriced considering his upside and the way he checks all the boxes this week at Caves Valley. He’s sixth overall on my model and will be in all my single-entry GPP builds and up to 40 or 50 percent of my lineups. I love his chances to get a win here. Go get some exposure to the tall 25-year-old shining star with the great T2G game.
Corey Conners (DK $8,600) – The Canadian ball-striking sensation checks in at 15thoverall in my rankings, his putting woes and weak Driving Distance rankings the only things holding him back from the top 10. I’ll be a little more careful with him this week, maybe limiting my GPP ownership and using him in some crafty cash builds.
Sam Burns (DK $8,300) – Last week we didn’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists, and while he didn’t do enough to help take down the large-field GPPs, he was T11 after three rounds at Liberty National and I love him again for that type of tournament this week. The T2G numbers aren’t excellent, but he’s got a bit of the Cameron Smith ability to bang it out there and clean things up by capitalizing on Par 5s and making a few more birdies than everybody else. He and Smith are actually right next to each other at Nos. 28 and 29 in my mixed model.
Paul Casey (DK $8,200) – Casey seems like the cash game play to Burns’ GPP analog, but I like him everywhere this week in a no-cut event at this discount price. The nicest guy on tour has the chops to live in the elite tier with the big boys in just about any tournament, and his proximity on approaches 200+ yards is one stat I really like.
Sungjae Im (DK $8,000) – I’m including Im here based on the detailed Breakdown that Sia, Joel and Spencer gave us this week – one of the things that got me interested in Finau last week. Im showed up 25th I my mixed model and while he has some momentum after a scrappy top 20, I was kind of on the fence until they touted him. The price is excellent and the upside is there on this golf course, where his T2G skills are at a premium.
Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – Still a great price on Lowry! We talked about his top 5 upside last week and he was right there until a less-than-stellar back nine. The Irishman ranked sixth in SG: T2G for the week at Liberty National and should be priced well over $8K. Take advantage of that disrespect by rostering him in 25-30% (or more) of your lineups.
Keegan Bradley (DK $7,700) – He cracked the PGA Tour’s BMW Top 20 Power Rankings this week, which always provides a nice little glimpse of what could be some the chalkier PGA DFS plays for the week, but Sia really likes him and I’m intrigued by his excellent ball-striking and ability to hit good drives that aren’t that far back from the big boys.
Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Daniel Berger, Abraham Ancer, Webb Simpson Joaquin Niemann, Jason Kokrak (GPP)
Cameron Tringale (DK $7,500) – Spencer likes Tringale this week and while I have harder time getting him right, it’s a fine time to go back to the well considering the veteran’s solid play over the past 36 rounds. I don’t love him most weeks, but he’s been consistent over the past four events (T14-T-26-T16 and T21 last week at Liberty National) and he can go really low some days.
Cameron Champ (DK $7,300) – Champ’s game has been rounding into better form and he’s exorcised some of the putting and short-game demons that plague his power-forward game. He’s gotten it done since a T11 at the John Deere Classic and his win at the 3M Open, which he capped with a bogey-free final round 66. Steer clear in cash games, but get some exposure in GPPs.
Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,100) – Vegas is my favorite play in the low-$7K range because of his distance, OTT numbers and T2G metrics. In fact, he’s No. 13 in my model and the only $7K player in my top 15. I’ll be using him in my single-entry builds and a lot of GPPs. Sure, he might get chalky if we’re all sticking to our models and playing the optimals, but this is a truly great spot for him, especially with no cut and guaranteed four cracks at this gettable golf course.
Maverick McNealy (DK $7,000) – We said last week that he really likes long golf courses and he ended up as both Sia’s Secret Weapon (SW) and my Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB), two low-ownership special Discord-exclusive perks that we divulge on Wednesday night for our premium subscribers. The T2G numbers are there and I think he’ll benefit from the smooth, fast Bentgrass greens this week as well.
Cameron Davis (DK $6,900) – Davis is only No. 32 in my mixed model, but I like the fact that he can plop one into the water, hit a rock and ricochet off a few things in the grandstands before landing 10 feet from the hole for an eventual eagle. Seriously – I like him in a no-cut event where he’ll have some leeway to spray it a bit and get back to the business of making birdies, where he’s eight in the field in BoB Gained.
Stewart Cink (DK $6,600) – Cink might end up being my BBB if his ownership is low enough, because no-cut events make it almost impossible to find non-chalky value under $7K and less than 5% ownership. So maybe no BBB this week, but I’ll have shares of Cink for his length off the tee and “veteran tour grinder” makeup. But he’ll be well under 10% for my overall exposure.
More value golfers to consider: Harold Varner, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Branden Grace, Marc Leishman (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP)
Keith Mitchell (DK $6,500) – We can load up on long hitters like Mitchell a bit more this week, but I suspect he’ll be popular after his epically clutch finish at Liberty National to make the top 70. Plenty to like about his game heading into a venue that requires length OTT.
Ryan Palmer (DK $6,400) – Palmer is long enough, and he could fly under-the-radar this week, so I’ll be getting 10-15% exposure in my large-field GPPs. Perfect last piece for medium stars-and-scrubs builds. Maybe this is the week he surprises and sneaks into the top 15.
Patton Kizzire (DK $6,200) – Kizzire is a little riskier but benefits from the no-cut format and the perks of DK scoring, where birdies and eagles (and streaks) are king. I worry about his ability to find fairways and greens, but there’s upside in his power-and-putting game.
Hudson Swafford (DK $6,000) – The super-risky Swafford only makes sense as a last piece on extreme stars-and-scrubs, but the DK scoring rules and guaranteed four rounds are his friend this week. We know he’s a dynamic player who can get really hot, go low and win tournaments when they are ripe for scoring.
Additional GPP punts: Emiliano Grillo, Aaron Wise, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!
Jon Rahm (DK $11,500) – The No. 1 player in the world hasn’t played much lately since he was forced to withdraw from the Olympics after another positive COVID test. But his win at the U.S. Open and T3 at Royal St. George’s are proof positive he’s the frontrunner in the playoffs, and his complete T2G game and masterful short game combine to check all the boxes here. With pricing up, I like him best for GPP, but if you can find a cash lineup with him that you like, I wouldn’t blow it up.
Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000) – According to the PGA Tour stats, DJ was 23.53 total strokes better than the field average last year at TPC Boston when he ran away with the Northern Trust at -30. It was the third time he had gained 20 or more strokes en route to victory, and the change of venue shouldn’t hurt his game. He’s eighth in this field at Proximity from approaches 200+ yards over his last 36 rounds, he putts better on Bentgrass, and he makes for a great GPP play this week.
Jordan Spieth (DK $10,800) – Only a handful of players have been better at the 450-500 yard Par 4s over the past 36 rounds (solid GPP options Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy are a couple of them), and none of them can putt like Spieth can. Normally I wouldn’t look Spieth’s way for a cash game build in a field this good, but Sia really sung his praises in the excellent WinDaily Breakdown video, and Jordan has had such a great 2021 that I think I’m using him in cash and single entry as well as GPP.
Justin Thomas (DK $9,800) – JT hasn’t put it all together in a while (his last win was at the Players and he had lackluster finishes in the most recent majors) but he’s shown an affinity for playoff golf in the past and he’s tops in the field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards in length. He was T12 here in 2019 and this is a good spot to jump back on the JT wagon in GPPs.
Also consider: Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Bryson DeChambeau (Cash), Viktor Hovland
Abraham Ancer (DK $9,400) – The freshly minted PGA Tour winner (WGC-FedEx St. Jude) was runner-up of this event at Liberty National in 2019, and he’s got to be brimming with confidence after the huge breakthrough in Memphis at TPC Southwind. Ancer is fourth overall in my mixed model and I’ll have exposure in my GPPs despite the inflated price this week.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,300) – Scheffler could be described as a decent putter, and that’s probably the weakest part of his game these days. He’s posted top 15 finishes in six of his last eight events and he thrives on long golf courses like this. There’s a bunch of golfers to like in this price range, but Scottie could be the sneakiest once again.
Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – While I have an aversion to Cantlay in PGS DFS and he had a really rough stretch earlier this year, there’s no denying that he’s played much better golf since the PGA Championship, when he finished T23 and won in his next start at the Memorial. He prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, is third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021 and he finished T12 here in 2019.
Harris English (DK $8,800) – English has been stellar over the past three months, winning the Travelers at TPC River Highlands, finishing solo third at the U.S. Open, and posting top 15s in five of his last seven tournaments. He’s coming off a solo fourth at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and I can’t find a reason to dislike him at Liberty National, even if he ends up at a really popular play.
Patrick Reed (DK $8,600) – Reed won here in 2019, and in true Captain America form went 3-1-1 when the Presidents Cup was played at this venue in 2017. He missed the cut at the Open Championship and has had some trouble keeping the ball in the fairway lately, but he’s a brilliant playoff competitor and a great GPP pivot from the more popular players in this price range.
Adam Scott (DK $8,400) – Scott missed an easy birdie putt and lost in that epic six-man playoff a week ago after firing a five-under 65 in the final round of the Wyndham Championship, but his ascent up the FedEx cup standings was impressive enough for lots of golf writers to pick him to win this week. He has course history behind him, with a fifth-place finish in 2019 and a win in 2013.
Tony Finau (DK $8,200) – I’ve been burned many times by Finau but I’m adding him to my player pool based on Joel Schreck and Spencer Aguiar’s recommendation in the Breakdown. A closer look at his numbers shows he’s good at avoiding three-putts and his SG ARG numbers have improved. He’s not much of a threat to win, but he could be that value guy who finishes top 10 and helps you secure a GPP win.
Sam Burns (DK $8,000) – I haven’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists this week, but he’s showing up in my mixed model and he’s coming off a blistering 64 in the final round at TPC Southwind that got him int a playoff with Ancer. He’s awesome off the tee, can get really hot with the putter, and the fact that nobody’s talking about him make me love him for large-field GPPs.
Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7.800) – Hatton will be a lot chalkier than Burns, but the price is way too low for what he gives you on courses this length. He’s sprinkled in some bad performances with a few top 20s, and he’s No. 17 on my mixed model, in large part due to how well he handles the 200+ approaches and A-4 Bentgrass. He’s a solid option in all formats.
Jason Kokrak (DK $7,700) – I had lots of Kokrak last week when he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship, but there wasn’t anything on the line then and I’m going back to the well this week with some exposure in GPPs. I don’t want to be one week off and have no shares, but I’m not going overboard.
Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash), Webb Simpson, Paul Casey (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, Ian Poulter, Russell Henley
Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – What a great price on Lowry! The 2019 Open champ is 20th overall in my mixed model and checks most if not all of the boxes in our focus stat categories this week. The form is good, he’s solid on all types of golf courses, and he’s got top 5 upside.
Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – I’ve been overconfident with Tringale a few times in PGA DFS, but I really like mixing in a few shares of him this week in GPPs based on where he finishes in my mixed model (ninth overall) and his solid numbers on longer approaches.
Seamus Power (DK $7,000) – Power will likely garner some ownership at this price, so if you’re getting skittish you can pivot elsewhere in GPPs – you can follow Sia’s lead and work in a guy like Charley Hoffman. But Power has been playing much better golf lately and works as a low-cost option.
Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – He really likes long golf coursesand was one of the first names I noticed under $7K with good SG: T2G numbers in his last 14 rounds. His SG: APP numbers leave a bit to be desired, but he’s really good off the tee and he can make some long putts.
Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,900) – Schwartzel fares well in my model (No. 33 overall) and seems to step up his game in stiffer competition. He also overperforms on long courses and should fare well at Liberty National, as the overall layout seems to favor his game.
C.T. Pan (DK $6,600) – I’ve seen some folks throw out Aaron Wise as another golfer with this price to consider, but if I’m leaning contrarian here, I’d do it with a Bronze medalist who’s coming off four rounds in the 60s. Pan is a sneaky contrarian play on longer courses and I like his chances to make the cut and spike a Top 25.
More value golfers to consider: Kevin Streelman, Bubba Watson (GPP), Jason Day (GPP), Max Homa, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Talor Gooch, Brendan Todd, Chris Kirk, Pat Perez, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Aaron Wise (GPP)
Matt Wallace (DK $6,500) – He checks a few important boxes this week (450-500 yard Par 4s and overall performance on long courses) and he’s solid around the greens and in wind. Wallace almost cracks the Top 20 in my mixed model this week so I’ll be mixing him into two or three GPPS in my 20 max builds.
Luke List (DK $6,400) – I’m always drawn to List when he’s cheap, but he’s strictly GPP only because he can implode on the greens. He’s scary to roster, so keep your ownership reasonably low (under 10%).
Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – Sia’s boy Hammerin’ Hank has a decent overall game and is a good ball striker. He offers plenty of value and should be a staple of stars-and-scrubs builds.
Additional GPP punts: K.H. Lee, Dylan Frittelli, Chez Reavie, Matt Kuchar, Doug Ghim, Harry Higgs
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities and helping you find some winning teams!
PGA DFS pricing is elevated for everybody this week with such a watered-down field, but we’ve got a bunch of viable picks for you to build a winner.
Dustin Johnson (DK $11,300) – If DJ’s game is on, he could walk away with this tournament, as it’s a gettable track that will yield tons of birdies and eagles. He also prefers putting on Bentgrass, so there’s that. If we can find enough value in the $7K range this week – and I think we can – we shouldn’t shy away from him in single-entry GPPs.
Tony Finau (DK $10,500) – Finau is expensive this week, but he belongs in this elite company as he and the guys north of $10K are head-and-shoulders ahead of the field in terms of talent. He’s a staple of my builds and I’ll be coming in around double the projected field ownership.
Sergio Garcia (DK $9,900) – This is where the drop-off starts in terms of risk, and Garcia’s is slightly mitigated by the fact that putter isn’t the most important club in the bag this week. I like him a tad better on Bermuda, but Garcia should be able to contend for a win in this watered-down field.
Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – He’s GPP only, but as Joel points out in the Breakdown, we need to be ready to pivot in large-field GPP if ownership gets out of control. There’s some chatter that his ball-striking is really coming into form and that’s a huge plus heading into a tournament where he’s already won.
Also consider: Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Cameron Tringale
Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,300) – Grillo sticks out as a high-upside, medium-risk play with solid form coming in. In his Initial Picks article, Sia points out that Grillo was a T3 here last year, and that’s exactly why I’m drawn to the Argentinian despite the increase in salary from what we’re used to for Emiliano.
Cameron Davis (DK $9,200) – He won the Rocket Mortgage at the start of the month, and the correlation makes me interested in him in GPPs. Davis also finished T12 here last year, so there’s a lot to like about the strides he’s made in 2021, even if he’s not the most consistent player above $9K.
Keegan Bradley (DK $8,800) – Bradley struggles with the outer, but he’s one of the best ball strikers around and this could be a great spot for a bounce back. I’d feel more safe about cash game use if his price was a little lower, but he might make my single-entry team for his upside in this field.
Stewart Cink (DK $8,700) – Cink is playing some of the best golf of his career and is woefully underpriced given the strength of this field. Safe for cash, but he could get popular if you’re targeting him for GPPs.
Maverick McNealy (DK $8,400) – One of our favorite birdie-fest golfers, McNealy is a guy who I’ll be overweight on regardless of his final ownership projections. This is his first run at the TPC Twin Cities, but I’m buying.
Luke List (DK $8,100) – List has struck the ball well in 2021 and posted consecutive top five finishes once his newborn son was deemed healthy. The veteran also led the field last week in SG: T2G and ranks No. 22 on tour in that metric. You can do a lot worse in PGA DFS than picking this guy.
Doug Ghim (DK $7,900) – One of these weeks, the talented Ghim is going to put together four good rounds and win a PGA Tour event. He’s made three straight cuts after an MC at the memorial but was T14 the week before at the Charles Schwab. Ghim isn’t safe, but he could be worth the risk.
Chris Kirk (DK $7,900) – This is exactly the kind of PGA DFS tournament where you wonder why you didn’t go back to Kirk, who finished T12 at the Rocket Mortgage before last week’s MC at the Open Championship. A much-improved golfer in 2021, I’m banking on a better finish than the T41 he posted at the 3M last year.
Richy Werenski (DK $7,600) – A high-risk GPP option I’ll be using in about 2-3 out of 20 lineups, Werenski can get on a roll fast and plant himself on the leaderboard with the best of the mid-range golfers. He’s worth another look at this event, where he finished T3 last year.
Also consider: Robert MacIntyre, Patton Kizzire, Lucas Herbert, Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Gary Woodland, Hank Lebioda (GPP), Ryan Moore, Lanto Griffin, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Mito Pereira
Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,500) – Vegas checks a few important boxes this week, and his weaknesses are mitigated by the layout and putting surfaces. I like Vegas on soft courses you can attack (T11 at the John Deere), and this is certainly one of those.
Erik Van Rooyen (DK $7,400) – Van Rooyen was actually $8,800 in this event last year, way more expensive than both Grillo and Tringale, who were both in the low-to-mid-$7K range and are now over $9K. Sure, it’s been a wild year, but EVR still has some upside, especially with SG: Putting (where he ranks No. 105 on Tour) not as important here.
Matt Kuchar (DK $7,300) – The last birdie-fest course he played was at the AT&T Byron Nelson, when he finished T17 at -16. I really like his chances at a top 20 here and his ownership should stay relatively low.
Kyle Stanley (DK $7,300) –Like Vegas, Stanley makes sense for courses you can go after and post lots of birdies, and I’m intrigued by the still-depressed price despite seven straight made cuts. The upside is lacking a bit, but he seems fine for a last piece in more balanced builds where we want to stay away from the sub-$7K golfers.
Bo Hoag (DK $7,000) – The pickings get slim once we get down to $7K, but I’ve got plenty of interest in Hoag this week. He posted a T12 here last year and is coming in after a T11 at the Barbasol and three straight made cuts (T47 at the John Deere, T33 at the Rocket Mortgage).
Kevin Tway (DK $6,600) – The (Friday) birthday narrative has been discussed ad nauseum on the WinDaily writers text message thread, and again in the Breakdown. This is one of the only venues where Tway plays well, so he’s worth considering at this price.
More value golfers for GPPs: Troy Merritt, Michael Thompson, Adam Schenk, Chez Reavie, Scott Stallings, Pat Perez, Sepp Straka, Tom Lewis (GPP), Adam Long (GPP)
Satoshi Kodaira (DK $6,500) – Kodaira hurt a lot of folks at high ownership when he was the DFS darling bargain play a couple weeks ago, but he played well at the Barbasol last week (T20). He also made the cut here in 2019 and should do so again. The upside is there at this price point.
Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – BB was my Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB) at the John Deere, and he ruined a great start (67 in round 1) with a 72 on Friday that knocked him out of the weekend. We’ll go back to the well this week, as I think he should fare well here, where he’s made the cut in both tries.
Robbie Shelton (DK $6,500) – He’s been bad this July, with three straight MCs, but I like his bounce-back chances on a course where he’s had success before (T3 last year). Again – he’s a GPP-only play and I might use him in up to 3/20 lineups.
Additional punts: Josh Teator, Michael Gligic, Fabian Gomez, Michael Gellerman
The Win Daily team has content galore this week, including this edition of PGA DFS picks to help you dominate your contests at the Rocket Mortgage Classic!
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,400) – He’s the defending champion, largely on the performance of his putter, so we must consider Bryson this week, especially in cash games. And despite some poor course management choices and subsequent meltdowns, he’s still made 10 straight cut and should be in the conversation come Sunday.
Webb Simpson (DK $10,600) – Given the fact that he’s missed two cuts in his last five tourneys, we can’t say Simpson’s form is great, but he does have a couple Top 15s in there (T12 at the Masters and T9 at the RBC Heritage). Strangely enough, three of the last four appearances he’s made have been at majors. That tells me he likes playing here, and his T8 last year in Detroit piques my interest even more.
Will Zalatoris (DK $10,000) – Willie Z used to make a lot of hay on courses like this on the Korn Ferry Tour, even if his PGA identity has been more of a “tough course” grinder. He’s not cheap this week, but he’s clearly among the top five in the talent category that’s heading to Detroit. I’m most worried about his putting, so I’ll limit my ownership to GPPs.
Jason Kokrak (DK $9,500) – Kokrak should be popular even at this elevated price, but his game should translate well to this course, where he finished T29 in 2019 before his career added the maiden victory and follow-up win at the 2021 Charles Schwab, played at Colonial. This venue comps well to that course, he’s number one on Sia’s model, and I’ll be overweight on the field regardless of ownership.
Also consider: Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama
Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – He’s off the DFS radar, for the most part, and that’s when I like to give him a shot in GPPs. But the price is entirely too much for cash game builds and he may fare well as a sneaky Top 10 bet.
Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Again – I can’t trust Wolff in cash games and will steer clear in single-entry, but the leverage and upside in large field GPPs should warrant some exposure to this dynamic but risky play. Joel likes him in GPPs and that’s enough for me.
Kevin Kisner (DK $8,500) – Kisner finished third last year and his coming off a T5 at the Travelers, an event where he wasn’t much part of the DFS conversation in the leadup. Aside from that, he hasn’t been very successful in 2021, though the courses have played tough and he prefers venues like this where he can make some birdies.
Max Homa (DK $8,400) – Homa – who is a combined +28 in his last four missed cuts – is not getting the love he deserves this week because of the form, even if he’s been a popular topic in the WinDaily golf writers’ message thread. I know that Isaiah is intrigued by Homa this week and I’m on board too.
Garrick Higgo (DK $8,300) – I’m interested in seeing what Higgo can do at a birdie fest considering he shot 66-63-64-64 in his win at the Canary Islands Championship in May on the EURO tour. Higgo is long, he’s a good putter, and he’s a bargain at this price – so he really stood out to me in this range – just like he did for Sia in his Initial Picks.
Doc Redman (DK $7,900) – Redman has a T21 here in 2020 and notched a solo second in 2019, so he’s clearly a course horse. Normally considered a volatile performer and high-risk/big-reward type of play, Redman has made five straight cuts and could be trending up toward another Top 10.
Maverick McNealy (DK $7,700) – I love McNealy and his ability to make birdies in bunches, and his T8 last season in Detroit is encouraging for another Top 20 finish. He finished T4 at the last birdie-forward event (RBC Heritage), and when he goes low, he goes really low. A fine play in all formats and one of favorites for “low round” bets.
Sepp Straka (DK $7,700) – I missed out on Straka and his T10 last week and will probably never recover from that – it’s like how I’ll feel if I fade Matthew Fitzpatrick the week of his first PGA Tour win. I’ll have some minimal shares just so I don’t have that feeling again.
Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Gary Woodland, Cameron Tringale, Si Woo Kim (GPP), Lucas Glover (GPP), Harold Varner, Kyle Stanley, Lanto Griffin
Adam Hadwin (DK $7,500) – Hadwin is solid T2G, and while I have a hard time seeing him post crazy low scores and reaching the -20 that might be necessary to win, he’s got the chops to finish in the Top 20.
Mark Hubbard (DK $7,300) – Don’t look now, but Hubbard has made five straight cuts and is playing really good golf, his T13 last week being his best finish since his T12 at last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s still a little risky for cash games, but he’s fine for GPPs and could be a bargain single-entry if you’re willing to assume a little extra risk.
Brian Stuard (DK $7,000) – Stuard is a couple years removed form his T5 finish here in what was a very weak field, but he notched a T30 in 2020 in Detroit as well and is among the best bargains in this $7K range for his brilliant putting and ability to make birdies in bunches.
Nate Lashley (DK $6,900) – Lashley is a former Rocket Mortgage champion (he won in 2019) but the form is somewhat concerning. I’ll limit my exposure to low-cost, large-field GPPs. He’s easy to root for and should make the cut this week.
Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,900) – If Rodgers could get in the habit of putting together four rounds of his A game, he’d be one of the best golfers on tour, but his one-day brilliance is usually bracketed by a stinker or two. He’s in the conversation for first-day leader, but I’ll steer clear in most formats.
Henrik Norlander (DK $6,800) – Norlander has made three cuts in his last five tournaments, which for him is a hot streak. I’m banking on another solid finish this week and he makes sense for the last piece in some GPP lineups.
More value golfers to consider: Seamus Power, Pat Perez (GPP), Danny Willett, Tom Lewis, Mackenzie Hughes, Beau Hossler, Scott Piercy, Richy Werenski, Cameron Champ (GPP), Danny Lee (GPP)
Adam Schenk (DK $6,500) – I won’t be dabbling too much in the $6,500 and under range this week, but Schenk checks a few boxes and could spike a Top 35 finish if he manages to make the cut – which he’s done in seven of his last 10 events.
Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,200) – Ventura is a hard nut to crack, because the ball-striking falls well behind the putter and there’s usually something in the course history I like (T21 here in 2020). This course sets up much better for him, and if the putter does its thing he could finally notch a Top 25, which he hasn’t done in a normal PGA tour event sine his T6 at Sanderson Farms.
Additional GPP punts: Jimmy Walker, J.J. Spaun, Ted Potter, Austin Cook
The next event for PGA DFS takes us to “Hogan’s Alley” for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club – where we’re giving you the winning picks!
Jordan Spieth (DK $11,200) – A Texas kid born in the Dallas-Fort Worth golf mecca, Spieth is a former winner here (2016), has never missed a cut at Colonial, and has a host of Top 10s, even in recent years when his game has struggled to find some consistency. With his putter always in form and his ball-striking ranking much better in 2021, Spieth can’t be avoided when discussing the favorites this week.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,300) – JT makes for a great GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship, but he’s still a bit risky given his spotty play recently. PGA DFS can be very frustrating when you’re on a guy (and an expensive guy to boot) and he breaks your heart by missing out on the weekend points and killing your lineup. But there’s nothing worse than fading that same guy the next week and watching him win. For that reason, it’s important to run it back one in a while and I’ll be doing that with JT at Colonial.
Collin Morikawa (DK $10,500) – Morikawa checks all the boxes this week except the putting stats, but the greens are small enough that if he’s doing his thing with his irons he should be close enough to make some putts. One of the best ball strikers in the world, Morikawa hits a smooth fade, doesn’t need length off the tee to win here and that’s a huge plus in giving him the nod over the others in this elite range. Sia, Joel and Nick are all on board, so I feel comfortable using him in my single-entry lineup and GPP core.
Abraham Ancer (DK $9,700) – Ancer has three consecutive Top 10s and while he will be chalky as hell, he’s hard for me to get away from in my builds. I’ll be using him in all formats, and he’ll be a core play for me in stars and scrubs lineups as well. If his putter goes cold he could have problems justifying this price, but he’s been so good with his irons he’s almost always in play.
Also consider: Patrick Reed, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler (GPP)
Corey Conners (DK $9,400) – It may still be wise to steer clear of Conners in GPPs until we see more Top 10 finishes, but he’s a cutmaker who’s 3-for-3 at Colonial and had a T8 in his 2018 debut at this venue. Again – Conners is mostly a cash game play with projected ownership creeping up.
Sungjae Im (DK $9,100) – Im missed the cut here in his 2019 Charles Schwab debut but improved to a T10 (with Spieth and Thomas) in 2020. We know he doesn’t tire easily, so the four grueling rounds he played steadily last week (70-72-73-73) don’t get me off him. The price is fine, and he won’t see massively high ownership.
Justin Rose (DK $8,900) –Maybe Rose will be inspired by Phil’s epic win at Kiawah Island last week, and we know the former winner at Colonial can play elite golf when he’s striking it well. Rose makes for a sneaky GPP play in a week where he won’t be highly owned.
Ryan Palmer (DK $8,600) –Palmer missed the cut last week andhas a vested interest in playing well at his home course. He loves the place, knows the greens really well, wants desperately to win at the venue commonly known as “Hogan’s Alley” and should stand out as a solid GPP play with his history of mixing MCs with Top 10s here.
Cameron Tringale (DK $8,100) – Let’s start with the bad. During round 2 last week, Tringale was -1 when he stepped on the No. 14 tee (he started on the back) and was +11 just four holes later. Then a little alligator walked across the fairway in front of him. That horrific stretch aside, Tringale played well and has the chops to rebound with a soldi finish this week.
Brian Harman (DK $8,000) – Harman looks like more of a cash game play this week, as he’s projected to be very popular (>25%). I won’t be using him too much more than 10-15% in my 20 max builds, but there’s a case to be made for using him and his five straight made cuts at Colonial.
Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,900) – Mr. Pop Stroke is one of the craftiest putters on tour, and the relatively poor ball striking and lack of length off the tee shouldn’t hurt him too much here. Sneds is super risky and shouldn’t be used in cash games but makes sense for large-field GPPs.
Chris Kirk (DK $7,600) – He’s missed two straight cuts, but people haven’t forgotten how good of a golfer he’s been in 2021, because he’s very popular again. I’ll throw out his performance last week because of the course difficulty, and trust he got an early start on getting his T2G and putting under control heading into an event where he’s had two Top 15s in his last four tries.
Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Gary Woodland (GPP), Jason Kokrak (GPP), Charley Hoffman (Cash), Kevin Na (GPP), Kevin Streelman, Emiliano Grillo (GPP)
Peter Uihlein (DK $7,500) – I’m not super excited about the $7-8K price range this week, and the fact that Uihlein is popping so much for his form could mean he breaks my heart this week. I don’t normally play him, but it’s his fourth appearance here and he has top 15s in his last two tries and is playing some of the best golf right now.
Patton Kizzire (DK $7,400) – He’s an awesome putter and his best finishes and have come in Texas. I’m not super excited about him this week because if he’s missing fairways there could be problems, but I think he can hit less-than-driver and be long enough to be in fine shape to contend. Not a cash game play, but usable in GPPs.
Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Another GPP extraordinaire who mixes missed cuts with solid finishes, Varner had a T2 at the RBC Heritage and T49 last week. He also finished T19 at the Honda Classic, which is similar in the focus stats that tend to drive success here.
Russell Knox, (DK $7,300) – Sia loves him for first-round leader, and it’s very tempting to consider him for single-entry this week given the price point and solid performances over his last three events (T21-T18-T39), He finished T8 here in 2019 but we can throw out the MC in 2020 amid the uncertainty of golf’s fanless return at the time.
J.T. Poston (DK $6,900) – I liked him heading into last week but the course and some bad timing on Friday 78 got the better of him. This week, he’s cheap and playing a venue where he’s 3-for-4 with a T10 last year and a T20 in 2018. GPP only.
Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – I use McNealy in GPPs once in a while and this seems like a good spot to go back to him. He’s 2-for-2 and while he’s a feast-or-famine type of golfer (he’s mixed in a solo second, a T4 and a T49 among six missed cuts in his last nine tournaments), this course seems to suit his strengths.
Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,700) – I wish Rodgers could put together four good rounds, because he’s got Top 25 upside. A third round 79 killed his chances at the Well Fargo, but he’s made his last two cuts after a poor April stretch. Worth a look in GPPs.
More value golfers to consider: Cameron Davis, Joel Dahmen, Talor Gooch, Doc Redman (GPP), C.T. Pan (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Henrik Stenson, Mackenzie Hughes, Andrew Putnam
Adam Long (DK $6,200) – I’ll only be using these guys in large-field GPP lineups that focus on stars and scrubs. If you’re trying to cram some combo of Spieth and/or JT with Morikawa/Ancer/Zalatoris in your first three spots, you’re forced to use the next three on guys like Long, who finished T19 here in 2019 and could post another Top 20.
Brian Gay (DK $6,100) – Gay has a T13 and T34 two of his last three appearances at Colonial, and I’m sure he was one of the first golfers my buddy Spades inserted into his lineup this week. The veteran golfer loves small greens (just like C.T. Pan does) and he’s in play as a longshot with Top 25 upside.
Mark Hubbard (DK $6,100) – Hubbard’s name also draws my attention because he an get rally hot with the putter, which is one of the things that could help guys break through this week. He’s much better for single-day lineups but I’m fine using him in 5% of GPPs hoping for a made cut and hot streak with that flat stick.
Additional GPP punts: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Anirban Lahiri
The second major of the year in PGA DFS provides an opportunity for you to dominate with our winning picks and analysis at the PGA Championship.
Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – Fresh off a one-stroke win at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, McIlroy is the betting favorite this week and the top-priced golfer on the board. While there’s no way I’m fading him completely this week, he’s bound to be popular, so I’m okay coming a little underweight on the field. The course – where he won the 2012 PGA Championship by a decisive eight shots – fits his game well. The eventual Hall of Famer from Northern Ireland is averaging 318 yards per drive this year, good for second on the PGA Tour, but his driving accuracy ranks just 175th – a stat that still scares me a little bit. He missed the cut at both the Players and the Masters, so he’ll be out to prove he’s truly back this week – right along with the cadre of fans he draws so much energy from.
Justin Thomas (DK $11,300) – JT’s win at the Players’ Championship on the Pete Dye design at TPC Sawgrass convinced me his game is in fine enough shape to contend at the coastal test of Kiawah Island – which earned the moniker “Looney Dunes” when it was played at the 1991 Ryder Cup. Thomas already has one PGA Championship under his belt (2017) on a course that provided a tough test for its competitors, and I like his ability to bounce back from bad bounces, bad holes and bad stretches a lot more than the sometimes erratic Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, who may currently lack the killer instinct and unflappable mindset to perform at his best this week. JT’s game is a complete one – and if he can continue to gain strokes around the green and get hot with the putter, the sky’s the limit.
Jordan Spieth (DK $10,100) – Spieth has played excellent golf in 2021, and his ball-striking is finally coming around the match his epic short game. We did see Spieth chunk a few chips and pitches last week, but I’ll chalk that up to anecdotal errors and assume the empirical brilliance he’s demonstrated under pressure around the greens throughout his career will take precedence over a few minor flubs. Golf Digest ranked the Ocean Course the toughest in the country, and Tiger Woods has compared the Ocean Course’s long, links-like layout to Whistling Straits, where Spieth contended against eventual winner Jason Day in 2015. He’s a fine play in all formats, and since he’s healthy now, I like him a little better than the more expensive Dustin Johnson, who WD last week due to a knee injury.
Xander Schauffele (DK $9,600) – Xander’s my favorite play in the lower half of the elite tier, although he’s still waiting to hoist his first major trophy after several close calls. Schauffele’s performance in majors during his brief career has been quite impressive – with top 25s in 11 of his 15 major events to date, including eight top 10s, six top 5s and a T3 just two starts ago at the Masters in April. Since then, he’s finished T11 at the Zurich alongside teammate Patrick Cantlay and T14 at the Wells Fargo. His time is coming, and this week might very well be it.
Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Collin Morikawa
Viktor Hovland (DK $9,300) – Hovland’s consistent play in 2021 includes just one MC and an incredible six finishes inside the Top 6 in his last 10 starts. He’s been a free square in cash games and provides ample GPP value despite his popularity in PGA DFS. He’s probably the least contrarian you can go if your goal is to build a safe lineup with some upside, and while he’s yet to win a major (or even crack a Top 10) in his young career, he’s not very far from greatness. His demeanor, his ball-striking and his positive attitude should go a long way this week in all formats.
Cameron Smith (DK $8,900) – Smith is my favorite pick in the $8-9K range and I’ll be pinning a lot of my GPP hopes on him posting a Top 10 finish. He’s lodged somewhere in the top 15 or 20 power rankings for a lot of sharps this week, and his dominance on par 3s and par 5s over the past few months points to an ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. That, combined with his ability to avoid three-putts (third overall heading into this week) usually helps him get it done regardless of the venue.
Will Zalatoris (DK $8,800) – Zalatoris seems to save his best golf for the biggest moments and the toughest golf courses, so he’s definitely one to watch this week at the Ocean Course. His seemingly effortless combination of power off the tee and precision on his approaches took a week off at the Wells Fargo, but he’s a very good bet for a Top 25 at Kiawah Island amid a strong field and a slew of big names who’ve already sealed the deal with multiple major wins. I’m not quite ready to go all-in just yet, but I’ll gladly get ahead of the field in my GPP ownership this week and see where it all shakes out.
Tony Finau (DK $8,600) – I’ve said “never again” too many times to count with Finau, but he’s talking confidently about his ability to win a major (despite just one career PGA Tour win to his credit) and he’s so damn good off the tee. I’ve thrown out a lot of the usual models I’ve been relying on for “lesser” tournaments since attitude and form go a long way in determining performance at a major championship venue this challenging, but Finau is one of the golfers who usually fares well on paper and just seems to lack the fortitude to finish tournaments. He’s flying under the radar this week and the team is off him, but for me there’s some leverage as a GPP pivot in the Will Z/Cam Smith range.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,400) – Fitzpatrick killed a lot of PGA DFS lineups this past week but scoring fests like the Byron Nelson are not where the wispy Englishman plays his best golf. His overall short game and precise ball-striking are his biggest strengths, and while he’s not insanely long (No. 168 on tour in Driving Distance), he ranks 16th on tour in SG:OTT – a huge stat this week since missing the fairway won’t be an easy fix on most of these holes. Fitzpatrick is having his best season on the PGA tour in 2020-21, and I can’t advocate leaving him out of your player pool.
Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,000) – Hatton ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in SG:APP and is in the top 20 for SG:OTT – the top two stats this week. While his performance around the greens remains his biggest bugaboo, he seems to step up and avoid three putts just enough on tough golf courses. He also should be recovered from the positive COVID test that forced him to withdraw from the Valspar in late April. The price is tempting, but I’ll be limiting my ownership levels to around 10% in GPPs since he’s yet to post a Top 15 finish on the PGA Tour in 2021.
Abraham Ancer (DK $7,900) – Ancer is a cut-making and ball-striking machine who’s yet to post a Top 10 major championship finish, but he’s coming in extremely hot: solo fifth at the Valspar, solo second at the Wells Fargo – performances which came on the heels of five straight finishes in the Top 26. He’s always among the leaders in SG:APP and Bogey Avoidance, and the only thing that could keep him from posting another Top 25 this week is his short game. Still – he’ll be a GPP staple and is a fine play in just about any format.
Paul Casey (DK $7,700) – Playing a chalky Casey could end up burning me, but I don’t care. The pedigree and price are just too good to pass up this week. The missed cut at the RBC Heritage is just about the only blemish on his 2021 record, and he’s notched five top 10 finishes this year, including a win at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic, which took place at a course grassed with – you guessed it – Paspalum. There are a lot of Euro Tour regulars I like this week, and Casey has proven to have winning upside on the International stage, even if he’s yet to notch a major win.
Marc Leishman (DK $7,600) – Please don’t forget about Leishman this week. He finished T5 at the Masters, and he’s had a slew of good performances in wind, something that he and fellow Aussie Cameron Smith know a lot about from the gusty tracks “down under.” He’s coming off a breezy T21 at TPC Craig Ranch and he finished T27 at Kiawah island in the 2012 PGA Championship. If he’s not mega-popular, I’ll be on board in GPPs and will consider him for a balanced single-entry build.
Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed (GPP), Daniel Berger, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Corey Conners (Cash)
Sam Burns (DK $7,500) – The price is way too low for his current form and ability with the driver and flat stick; his putting numbers have shown marked improvement in 2021 and are the main reason he’s been so good lately. His irons haven’t been awful either, and Burns will be a tough fade if you’re looking for balanced builds. The timing for him playing the best golf of his young career couldn’t be better, and he’s really easy to root for.
Keegan Bradley (DK $7,300) – The 34-year-old has loads of experience on Paspalum, and the way he’s been driving the ball and striking it, he’s going to be a core play of mine in single-entry, GPP and cash. I’ll be approaching 40 percent overall ownership and taking the big plunge. Bradley already has a PGA Championship under his belt – his lone major victory – and he’s playing the best golf of his career since that zenith, which came when he was just a young man of 25.
Charley Hoffman (DK $7,300) – I don’t go overweight on Hoffman, but he plays his best golf in tough competition on long and challenging golf courses. He’s made eight straight cuts and finished outside the top 35 only once (a T52 at the Genesis Invitational) during that stretch – which includes a solo second at the Valero Texas open and consecutive T18s in his last two events.
Jason Kokrak (DK $7,100) – He’s just about the best value on the board, along with veterans Stewart Cink and Charl Schwartzel, and he’s yet to miss a cut in 2021 – a season that’s seen the tour veteran post a T9 at the Players and three more Top 15 finishes. It’s debatable whether or not his breakthrough win in 2020 has given him the confidence to finally contend at a major – where his performance over the past few years has been spotty at best – but this golf course seems to play to his strengths.
Stewart Cink (DK $6,900) – One of the most surprising stats about the 47-year-old PGA Tour stalwart’s recent resurgence is his Driving Distance (No. 23 on tour). That length should help him tackle these long par 4s and his No. 9 rank in Bogey Avoidance will hopefully get him another solid finish in the PGA Championship – a major he hasn’t played since 2018 when he finished T4 at Bellerive Country Club.
Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,800) – The Win Daily team has given you Schwartzel’s name week after week, and I’ve had him covered even before his T26 at the Masters and subsequent T21-T14-T3, a progression that’s been impressive considering the dynamic differences among the courses during that stretch. He’s one of a handful of golfers under $7K who I’ll be rostering in more than 15% of my GPP lineups, and he’s brimming with confidence heading into a major where he’s made the cut six straight times since a missed cut in 2013. Over the course of his career, Schwartzel has 18 Top 25s in the 52 major championships he’s played in a professional career that started when he was just 18 years old in 2002.
Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $6,800) – CBZ, as I like to call him for brevity’s sake, is my off-the-wall value play. He’s piqued my interest for his dominance around the greens, where he ranks second on the PGA tour in SG:ARG behind just Fabian Gomez. His ball-striking is a concern, but on a course that plays this difficult for everybody, I’m willing to take a chance and include him in a few of my 20-max GPPs.
Thomas Pieters (DK $6,800) – On the other end of the spectrum, we have a Belgian EURO golfer who strikes the ball well and is long enough off the tee to contend on this course. There’s not a lot of PGA Tour data, but his ranks put him among the Top 65 in plenty of key categories, and his form is decent. Before his missed cut at the Byron Nelson, he posted four straight Top 15s in tournaments here and abroad.
More value golfers to consider: Gary Woodland (GPP), Lee Westwood, Matt Wallace, Brian Harman, Garrick Higgo, Max Homa (GPP), Matt Jones, Cameron Tringale, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Chris Kirk, Talor Gooch (GPP), Thomas Detry
Dean Burmester (DK $6,300) –I love the form (Win-T4-T6 in his last three EURO events), and while he’s a huge risk playing inside the United States, where he’s only played two majors – both U.S. Opens (T56-MC). I won’t go into too much detail about the South African because I don’t have a lot – but in this price range I’m willing to use him a bit and hope he sneaks into the weekend and gets on a decent run.
J.T. Poston (DK $6,100) – There’s not a lot of golfers to seriously consider in this price range, but Poston’s putter (fourth on tour in SG:P) and distance off the tee (300+) gets him into the conversation. He doesn’t three-putt too much and while his ball-striking is a concern, once in a while he shines. For this price in GPPs, he can’t hurt you too much if you keep him under 10%.
Additional GPP punts: Brendan Steele (GPP), Tom Lewis, Lanto Griffin, Erik van Rooyen, Harry Higgs, Andy Sullivan
We’re once again bringing you some PGA DFS picks and analysis, looking for some winning teams at The Wells Fargo Championship at classic Quail Hollow!
Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is the most expensive golfer this week as he returns to Quail Hollow and the site of his 2017 PGA Championship win. The conditions won’t be quite as tough now as they were then, but Thomas should be able to contend if he can get even a little hot with the putter. Most of his recent “struggles” can be tied directly to a lot of really good putts that just didn’t fall in – a result that should progress toward better SG: P numbers this week.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – Playing Bryson in DFS sometimes feels like mashing the “X” button for the power boost in the Tiger Woods video games, but if there was a week to take advantage of his obscene length, this is it. He’s No. 1 overall on my mixed model ranking and one of the course comps is Winged Foot, where he won the U.S. Open in 2020. He’s a bomb-and-gouge guy on a course that welcomes it and the Par 5 scoring (he’s tops in the field) has to be good. Giddyup!
Jon Rahm (DK $10,800) – Rory shows up ahead of JT at the No. 2 overall spot o my model, but Rahm seems a great fit for this golf course, even though he’s only played here in the 2017 PGA Championship to a unexceptional finish (made cut but ended up T58). Still – Rahm’s great off the tee and he avoids bogeys – key metrics this week that make him a fine play in all formats despite his projected popularity.
Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Viktor Hovland (Cash), Patrick Cantlay (GPP), Tony Finau
Will Zalatoris (DK $9,400) – I don’t know if there’s a really a time when it’s safe to jump off the Zalatoris train, even with his T42 finish at the RBC Heritage on a small-greens course that didn’t play to his strengths of power and precision. He’s a prolific cut-maker and a generational type of talent who drives the ball fairly well, so he makes sense as a GPP pivot from guys like Finau and Conners.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $9,100) – Normally, I let the field get excited about Niemann and fade the guy, but his consistent play recently has me getting a lot more exposure. He doesn’t excel in any one of our focus stats categories this week, but he’s solid enough across the board (22nd in SG: APP and 25th in SG: OTT on difficult scoring courses) to end up as my No. 12 golfer in the model.
Max Homa (DK $9,100) – As good as Homa has been the past few weeks, he’s going to be hard to fade on a course where he’s already won. There don’t seem to be any flaws in his game right now and he’s No. 4 in my overall model in an absolutely stacked field – the highest I’ve seen him in several weeks.
Sungjae Im (DK $8,800) – Im is finding his ball-striking groove and appears a lot more comfortable with the putter recently. He checks all the boxes this week in the key metrics and makes for an excellent GPP play that doesn’t offer too much risk and plenty of Top 15 upside.
Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – He’s the same price as last week but the field is tougher, so you’d think his ownership should drop – but he might still end up like 18-20% owned. He might be okay for cash games, but I’d rather spend the extra few hundred and take Im in GPPs, especially since Tringale hasn’t found much success here since 2016.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,100) – I’ll go back to the well with Grillo and take the $200 discount from last week. He’s proven he belongs on courses that emphasize tee-to-green numbers over putting (he has a T9 here in 2018), and the days of him performing only in poor fields are gone. Grillo is a risky play because he tends to three-putt a little more than we’d like, but I like him for some GPPs.
Lucas Glover (DK $7,800) – After a rough start to 2020, Glover enters the Wells Fargo playing solid golf and sporting a still-affordable price tag under $8K. He’s done well here over the years with five career top 10s, including a win here in 2011.
Joel Dahmen (DK $7,600) – Dahmen won the Corales Puntacana in March after three straight missed cuts (and six of seven with the lone made cut coming at the AT&T), and he finished second here in 2019, three strokes behind Homa. The “A game” can come and go pretty quickly with this guy, so he’s best used as a last piece in balanced GPP builds.
Also consider: Corey Conners (cash), Abraham Ancer (GPP), Brian Harman (Cash), Jason Day (GPP), Bubba Watson, Shane Lowry, Stewart Cink, Talor Gooch
Kyle Stanley (DK $7,100) – Last week we discussed his tee ball game, and this week that’s a huge focus stat for us. I’m not as in love with Matt Jones and Lanto Griffin this week as everyone else, but Stanley’s ownership should remain low enough in GPPs to make him a worthwhile addition to the player pool. A T8 here in 2019 and T13 in 2018 add more intrigue, though he missed the cut at the 2017 PGA Championship.
Ryan Moore (DK $7,100) – Moore graded out well last week and now he’s playing to even more of his strengths, with putting being his biggest bugaboo. He’s solid OTT and if he can get a few more birdies to drop, makes for a great value play. The $7,000 to $7,100 range has a bunch of guys I like, so I foresee a few not-quite scrubs-and-stars GPP builds where I roster four guys like Moore, Wise, Kizzire and Tom Hoge and then finish it off with a couple of $10K-11K guys. Moore got me excited with an opening 66 last week, but this week he won’t have to contend with as much wind and can spray it a bit more off the tee. I’m in.
Aaron Wise (DK $7,100) – Wise has compelling Top 10 upside this week on a course where he’s had lots of success in his young career (T2 in 2018 with Nick Watney; T18 in 2019). We can probably throw out the finish at the RBC Heritage and look at the balance of his recent play to see that he’s trending in the right direction. Nick mentioned on the breakdown video that he might end up around 10% ownership, but I’m fine using him in single-entry and the 20-max dip at around 20-25% to stay ahead of the field.
Patton Kizzire (DK $7,000) – I think I was one week off on Kizzire, who I always seem to have plenty of exposure to in GPPs on bomb-and-gouge courses. Last week I added him (not so confidently) to my player pool at the last minute before lock and his middle two rounds (75-76) destroyed any hope for a solid finish. This week, the layout should give him more of an advantage.
Phil Mickelson (DK $6,900) – He’s way too cheap (and still pretty long off the tee) for where he ends up in my mixed model rankings this week (No. 39 overall). A polarizing figure who still commands plenty of ownership among his fans, Phil is a dynamic player who makes it hard to go all in. If I can land on about 7.5-10% in GPPs and be slightly ahead of the field, I’ll be happy.
Luke List (DK $6,800) – Four missed cuts in his last six events will keep his ownership low, and I like the course fit for List at an event where he’s had a Top 10. If it clicks for him this week, he could be the only sub-$7K player in contention, so I’m fine staking my exposure at 10-15% ownership in GPPs.
Sam Ryder (DK $6,700) – Another golfer I like this week that could fly well under the radar, Ryder is popping on my models and makes for a high-risk play considering he’s missed his last two cuts. He’s probably the lowest priced golfer that I’ll consider at 10+ percent exposure in my GPPs.
More value golfers to consider: Lanto Griffin, Carlos Ortiz, Matt Jones (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Charl Schwartzel, Tom Hoge (GPP), Adam Schenk, Wyndham Clark, Chez Reavie (GPP)
Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,500) – Rodgers isn’t the best in approach metrics, but he’s really solid off the tee, so he could be a decent litmus test for which category wins out this week. I liked him quite a bit when I started looking for longshots, and I do even more now that Stick’s Picks endorsed him, but he’s definitely GPP only.
Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – I think Burgoon could be ready for a breakthrough at Quail Hollow despite the lack of success in the past. If you need a punt play who’s striking the ball well (T13 last week at the Valspar), he could be your guy.
Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – “Hammerin” Hank Lebioda also finished T13 at the Valspar, and Sia mentioned him in the breakdown as a possible punt play. At just $6,300 and coming off his best finish in 2021, he’s worth a look.
Additional GPP punts: Richy Werenski, Henrik Norlander, Cameron Percy, Joseph Bramlett, Will Gordon, Seung-Yul Noh
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Valspar Championship and helping you find some winning teams!
Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is my top dog emcee this week, despite an embarrassing MC his last time out here at Copperhead in 2019. Feel free to drop him into your GPPs and hope for the A game on a course he should excel on — in a clime and locale he digs. Some tighter pricing at the very top will keep him lower owned than usual. He posted T10 in 2015 and T18 in 2016, but not tons of success here…yet. JT’s greatest strength in GPPs is both his predictability (on hard golf courses) and his relative unpredictability (when it comes to making cuts) in PGA DFS.
Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – He’ll come in even lower than JT, so why not? I’m going to try to jam both of these guys in together in just one or two of 20 max GPPs – it’s a tough stars-and-scrubs route but not impossible if you deploy 2-3 of my punts in the $6,300-$6,700 range. DJ’s almost twice that, but I’m still fine coming in around the field on his ownership because he’s so frickin’ solid T2G. Again — in most cases we’ll be tasked with rostering one or the other, so you’ll have to pick your poison in the Justin-or-Dustin sweepstakes.
Paul Casey (DK $10,000) – I guess he likes it here, huh? Casey’s the defending champ two times over, so you know damn well he’s going to be popular – like Hell’s Ice Cream Man. I’m using some recent course history in my mixed model this week; as a result he’s No. 1 in the field four categories (three exclusive to Copperhead: SG:T2G, SG: Short Game and DK Pts), and the other a very impressive field-beater for Par 4s (400-450). Casey also ranks out as No. 5 in my Good Drives Gained metric and No. 3 overall in two categories tweaked for difficult fairways and scoring: SG: APP and SG: T2G. So hard to bet against him, but he’s definitely looking at 15-20% ownership this week in GPPs.
Corey Conners (DK $9,600) – He might be more of a cash play than GPP, because he’s becoming popular – and he’ll be more popular than Casey, even – for a reason. But yeah, I’d use him in single-entry GPPs, especially if you’re fading Casey. Conners finished T16 here (right with the next two golfers I wrote up, in fact) in 2018, and it’s a very viable trio again in 2021, with all three of them in my model’s Top 15.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,500) – So yeah, I love Louis and the high price – because it’s up with the big boys and he should fly under 12% owned in GPPs. Oosty has a T7 (2016), a T16 (2018) and a T2 (2019) at Copperhead and he’s swinging it great recently. The last tee shot he hit that folks watched got pushed it into the water – and he and teammate Charl Schwartzel lost in the first hole of a playoff at the Zurich Classic to Aussie bros and champs Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith. Not sure what effect that has, but I’m using King Louis of the Gorgeous Tempo in like 20-30% of my GPPs to get myself way ahead of the field.
Also consider: Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Patrick Reed (Cash)
Abraham Ancer (DK $9,300) – Ancer’s solid driving, elite iron play and pin-seeking approaches should help keep him on point at Copperhead, where he finished T16 in his only appearance in 2018. No 4 in my mixed model, No. 3 in Par 4s (400-450), No. 8 in Good Drives Gained and No. 17 in the field for Par 3s (200-250). Impressive numbers for this T2G maestro that help me see him as a top cash and SE GPP play this week.
Sungjae Im (DK $9,200) – Our guy Joel may be “on a Sungjae kick,” but I’m just getting started because I’ve avoided him a bit like Sia has. This week, he’s popping up as No. 2 on my mixed model, and he notched a T4 here at the Valspar in 2019. I’ll have a hard time leaving him out of my player pool even if he’s 20% owned. Im’s approach game and recently competitive play indicate he’s the type of guy to look for here in a breakthrough.
Russell Henley (DK $9,000) – He’ll be popular, and Sia discussed why a little before when Joel confessed he’s a Sungjae believer on the breakdown. Henley pops in a lot of models, even though he hasn’t played well here aside from a T9 in 2017. I may not be into him like Sia – but I’m a little more bullish than Joel on him because of his T2G and approach abilities on tough courses like this.
Justin Rose (DK $8,800) – Always a better driver and ball-striker than a putter, Rose has hit a resurgent stride under the tutelage of Sean Foley and looks to be recovered from his back woes and wayward shots. He was one of the first guys I wrote in to discuss, arrives in great form and finished T5 here in 2018. I’m jumping aboard and I still think folks are wary to do the same – so he’s fine for GPPs at under 10-12% ownership. Glad to hear Sia is into him too. Watching Rose play the last few weeks has been a pleasure after his rough patch.
Jason Kokrak (DK $8,700) – He’s shaping up to be popular, and I like him for cash with Conners or Ancer (or maybe both). Good recent course history (consecutive top tens) and great form (3/4 top tens) His average finish at the event is 19th, and he even carded one of the individual top single-day scores in 2019 when he finished T2 with Oosthuizen. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kokrak was in contention on Sunday, so he’s on my short list in this price range.
Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – I’ll be looking at ownership before I make a final determination on how deep I’ll plunge in GPPs, and I’m really the most focused on his SG:APP numbers more than anything, so that might end up meaning I’m fine being close to where the field lands. I don’t want to be double it and overexpose, and I don’t want to miss out on a guy I really like playing each week for his ball-striking.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Putting is less important than T2G numbers here, so Grillo makes for a perfect GPP play. I landed on a lot of the same names as Joel and Sia this week, so the overlap in our Venn diagram of player pools could work out great for WinDaily subscribers if they really zero in with our builds. My piece on Grillo is that he won’t be quite as popular as the early ownership projections, because folks will get cold feet when they look at his course history here.
Chris Kirk (DK $8,200) – I know his course history isn’t great, but he’s just a better golfer now and he’s No. 30 on my model, which includes a data set of some assorted SGs (and DK points) from Copperhead over the past five seasons. That part isn’t too appealing, but he’s tackling all the other focus stats recently in this stretch of wonderful form. I wrote the start of this blurb right before I heard Sia point out in the breakdown about how he’s playing the best golf of his life at the moment – and a great value.
Talor Gooch (DK $8,000) – His numbers at Copperhead are awful, but he’s bound to come around here the second time he plays it, right? He’s a tough longshot play at 75-1 to win, but I like his Top 15 upside this week based on his SG:APP numbers and his dominance of Par 3s 200-225. There’s five par 3s here! And he hits the golf ball very well! Seriously, though, I’m getting me some GPP shares of the Goochmeister.
Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Lucas Glover, Adam Hadwin (GPP)
Lanto Griffin (DK $7,400) – It’s his debut at Copperhead, but Griffin is the type of talent who could get in the Top 12-15 here in his first run. He shakes out well on the mixed model (No. 16 overall) and I don’t think the lack of experience should hurt him too much. He’s almost $1K cheaper than Grillo and has similar upside as an under-the-radar PGA DFS value play.
Danny Willett (DK $7,200) –A really good play in GPPS this week, Willett arrives in very good form and the former Masters champion is a whiz on this type of difficult track – which demands good shots into the par 3s and plays to his T2G strengths. The Englishman is one of the more talented players in this range, alongside Stenson and Griffin, and he’s hitting it crisp and straight.
Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,100) – I think being in contention alongside Oosthuizen last week helped him out tremendously, and I think the good memories of his 2016 win here are more than just a narrative on a course this tough, especially when you factor in the solo sixth place in 2017. Charl makes for a viable value play in a good majority of formats this week, as he was T26 at the Masters (another place he won) and I think he’ll still come in under 8% ownership. I’ll be pleased as punch if I can lock him into 15-20% of my GPP lineups and get that far ahead of the field, for his top 20 upside alone.
Henrik Stenson (DK $7,000) – He’s tops in the field in SG: APP on Copperhead over the past five events, so I’m going to be grabbing some shares at this low price – especially considering the dynamic track record and his ability to play well on tough courses. His short game isn’t great, but that’s not a focus stat this week, and his swing coach has him playing much better than in 2020. Stenson makes sense for use in some GPPs.
Tom Hoge (DK $7,000) – He’s almost always firmly in play in PGA DFS as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play unless the greens are very difficult, but that’s not the issue here. He’s No. 34 in my mixed model this week and I’m still waiting for that Top 5-10 I know he’s capable of if he can avoid the one bad round that usually spoils his eventual finish.
Ryan Moore (DK $6,900) – Moore grades out in the Top 10 of my model, but we’ve acknowledged that I’m taking course history into account – especially when it comes to searching for sub-$7K plays. There’s plenty to like about the current state of his game and the venue just works great, as he’s fifth in SG: T2G and SG:APP among the field over the Valspar’s past five events at Copperhead.
Kyle Stanley (DK $6,800) – A good driver of the golf ball who’s pretty solid T2G, Stanley fits the course profile pretty well and should come in under 5% ownership, so he’s worth a look in GPPs. He’s far from masterful around the greens and on them, so SG: Short Game is my biggest concern when it comes to focus stats, but I can endorse up to 10% in 20 max GPPs and other large-field events.
More value golfers to consider: Denny McCarthy, Doug Ghim, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Patton Kizzire (GPP), Rory Sabbatini (GPP), John Huh, Luke List, Chase Seiffert (GPP), Scott Stallings (GPP)
Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – He’s missed the last two cuts but has played well here before, including a T9 in 2019. Think of him as the higher-risk, higher-reward Brian Stuard, who I’m also considering for a few GPPs. He’s No. 26 in the model that uses a data set including course history metrics. Armour is boom-or-bust in PGA DFS, but I might take the risk this week.
Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – A perfect type of player to debut here and flirt w