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The NBA All-Star Break is the proverbial half-way point in the season. Yes, most teams have played 2/3rd of their games, but the break signifies a good time to hit the reset button and prepare for the push to the Larry O’Brien Trophy. It’s also a good time for us daily bettors to focus on what has worked and where we can find advantages in the market. I’m going to share with you the data I have collected for the entire season and key metrics that will help your handicapping and set you up for success in the 2nd half. It’s winning season, so let’s go!
To date my NBA game bets, which can be found daily at this link, are 30-18. This is coming off a successful NFL Season (49-29) and College Football Bowl Season (19-11).
As a starting point, I want to layout what I’m looking for when scanning the market for bets on a given day. These aren’t the only factors, as player injuries and availability come into play as well. But using the below factors will get you to a specific game and help you narrow the betting field for the day.
BACK-TO-BACK NIGHTS: The first, which is quite obvious, is whether a team is playing on back-to-back (B2B) nights. The latter, not surprisingly, often signifies a betting advantage. Players hate playing back-to-back games. They often say it’s the one thing they would do away with. And the numbers show. Teams playing in back-to-back nights are 83-96 Against The Spread (ATS). Or better stated, they cover the spread just 46% of the time. Just blindly playing the fresher team would have netted you 4.7 units in the first half. We’ll get to more of this later and show which teams to fade and which teams to consider on B2B’s.
TRAVEL (5+ Game Road Trip): Every team goes through at least one, if not multiple, long road trips per year. The NBA tries to stack Western and Eastern trips for the opposite coast just to minimize their long flights. But on that last leg of the road trip, we typically see the wear and tear kick-in. Doc Rivers took over as Head Coach of the Bucks in the middle of a 5-game road trip in which Milwaukee went 1-4 SU and ATS. And he famously complained about the schedule makers doing him no favors. If a coach complains, you know the players are the ones behind that engine.
I tracked 26 times in which a team went on a 5+ game road trip. In the last game of that stretch, the teams are collectively 13-22 ATS. And they are even worse straight up with a 10-25 record. Just something to keep an eye on in the 2nd half.
HOME/AWAY ATS Splits: Some teams are a better home team and some play better on the road. When the splits are wide, it’s something we track and keep an eye on for future advantages (i.e. a good home ATS team versus a bad road ATS team). On the season, home teams are 409-411 ATS. So while it’s an even split league wide, I’ll give you some teams that thrive in certain roles (i.e. home team or away).
HOME DOGS: Who doesn’t love a good home dog? It’s what we love to bet on the gridiron so why not the hardcourt. Well data shows it’s not always the prudent choice as home dogs are 155-159 ATS this season. But some are better than others and we’ll point those out below.
0-5 Point / 5-10 Point / 10+ Point Spreads: I’ve analyzed three brackets of key spreads and assessed what each team has done as either a favorite or dog in these point ranges. For example, the Mavericks are 13-5 ATS as a 0-5 point favorite. But they are 6-7 ATS as a favorite of 5 points or more.
Recent Play (i.e. Last 5 Games): While I won’t share much information on this category in the below. It is something you’ll see me point to as part of my handicapping when posting plays in Discord or on our betting page. So keep a lookout for L5 performance numbers. Basketball is a game of runs.
So it’s time to give you some key stats and ATS/SU numbers in the categories above that will help you identify team strengths and weaknesses heading into the home stretch of the NBA season.
There’s an old adage that good teams win but great teams cover. And if you follow that, then the Orlando Magic is your favorite team. They crushed the books in the 1st half with a 36-19 record ATS. They were great as favorite’s (15-4) and underdogs (21-15). The Magic have exceeded expectations this season and are sitting in 8th place in the Eastern Conference with a 30-25 record.
On the flip side are the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are a mess on the court and in the sports books as they own a 17-38 record ATS. They books haven’t adjusted as the Hawks went 3-11 ATS in December and 2-12 ATS in January. They’ve rebounded slightly in February with a 5-3 record ATS. But they still cover just 31% of the time.
Home court advantage is one thing. Home court ATS winners are another. And we go to the Lone Star state for the team that takes care of their home court the best; the Houston Rockets. The Rockets invested money into their team in the offseason and that has shown on the court as they have drastically improved their play and find themselves competitive in a tough Western Conference. They are 19-9 ATS at home, where they’ve played 13 of those games as favorites and the other 15 as underdogs.
The one team at the polar opposite end of the standings is Atlanta with an 8-20 ATS record at home. But we’ve highlighted their misfortunes earlier so instead let’s look at the 2nd worst home team which are the Washington Wizards with a record of 10-16 ATS in our Nation’s Capital. The Wizards are just stuck in purgatory with some of the worst team basketball players this side of the Atlantic. And it’s obvious that Washington fans can’t stand to watch their team either. Which may explain why they play so well on the road (we’ll get to that next).
Would you believe me if I told you a team with 9 wins on the season is the best team to bet with on the road? Well believe it or not, it’s true. The Washington Wizards are 19-9 ATS on the road. They thrive in those situations with 27 of their 28 games as a dog (they’re 1-0 as a road fave).
While Atlanta is also bad on the road ATS, they’re not the worst! That title goes to the Charlotte Hornets who are 8-17 ATS away from the Queen City. The Hornets have Lamelo Ball (sometimes) and Brandon Miller to build around. So the future could be bright. But the present is bleak and we need to attack betting against the Hornets in the 2nd half. Of their 41 losses, 26 have been by double digits including a 53 point loss to the 76ers back in December.
Almost every NBA team plays the B2B scenarios differently. It might have been what got ex-Nets HC Jacque Vaughn fired earlier this week as the team points back to a December game when he sat almost everyone (he actually started a few starters then benched them after Q1). But it’s important to know who plays these situations well and we look to the Dallas Mavericks who are 5-2 ATS in B2B’s. While they have the most wins, we also have three teams that are 4-1 ATS in B2B’s in the Clippers, Jazz and Trail Blazers.
One team to fade in B2B’s is the Indiana Pacers who are a dreadful 1-6 ATS in 2nd leg of the games. We all know they play at a furious pace which leads to poor play when faced with two games in two nights.
ATLANTA HAWKS: The Hawks have no real strengths in the betting market. The only highlight is the one game in which they were 10 point dogs, they covered. So they’re 1-0 as 10 point underdogs. We all know they’re the worst in many categories but specifically as a home underdog where they are 2-6 ATS (25% cover).
BOSTON CELTICS: We haven’t talked about the best team in the NBA primarily because Vegas has a good pulse on the C’s. Boston is 27-26 ATS. They are pretty much 0.500 in all key categories. However, one area they are above 0.500 is as a 10-point favorite. In this situation they are 10-8 ATS. They are two games under 0.500 as a road favorite where they come in as 11-13 ATS.
BROOKLYN NETS: We all know Brooklyn is bad in B2B’s (1-4 ATS) and on the road (9-15 ATS). But they’re very profitable as a home favorite where they are 9-3 ATS.
CHARLOTTE HORNETS: Give me the Hornets, says almost no one at the counter. They are 21-33 ATS which is 2nd worst in the league. They are decent in B2B’s with a 5-2 ATS and have covered their only game as a road favorite (but we prob won’t see another).
CHICAGO BULLS: The Bulls are a mess on the court but a sneaky good play in the betting markets. They thrive in the 5-to-10-point favorite role where they are 8-3 ATS. However, they are just 5-8 ATS as a small favorite (i.e. less than 5 points).
CLEVELAND CAVS: Cleveland is a great story as they’ve surged into the #2 seed in the East. They’re particularly good as a small favorite (less than 5 points) as they are 13-7 ATS in that role. They struggle as a small underdog (less than 5 points) where they are 3-6 ATS.
DALLAS MAVS: Not many are better than Dallas in the role as a favorite. They are 19-12 ATS as a favorite and 13-5 ATS as a small fave. Avoid them when the Mavs are getting 5 to 10 points as they are 0-5 ATS in that situation.
DENVER NUGGETS: The champs are a tough team to bet on as they are 19-29 ATS as a favorite. Their best role is as a dog of 5-to-10 points as they are 2-0 in those situations. That’s been when Jokic hasn’t played so we likely won’t see many more of those. So maybe look for when they play the Lakers as they are 2-0 ATS against their foe from LA.
DETROIT PISTONS: The first-half was a nightmare for the Pistons as they set a new NBA record for consecutive losses. But not all was bad in the betting market as they were 13-8 ATS as 10-point dogs or more. On the flip side, they were just 1-4 ATS as favorites.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: The Warriors are a heavy public team which can often make their lines being inflated. But they perform very well as an underdog as they lead the league with a 68% winning percentage ATS when they get points (15-7 ATS). They are two different stories as a favorite as they are 7-3 ATS on the road in those situations. But just 7-14 ATS as a home fave.
HOUSTON ROCKETS: We noted how the Rockets are rock stars at home with a 19-9 ATS record. However, on the road as a dog they are just 8-14 ATS.
INDIANA PACERS: The Pacers are fun. Especially as an underdog where they are 18-12 ATS. Even better they are 8-3 ATS as a home dog. Obviously, we need to stay away on B2B’s (1-6 ATS) but also avoid them as a 5-10 point favorite as they are 4-8 ATS in that role.
LA CLIPPERS: The Clippers are a team worth CONSIDERING AS A FUTURES BET FOR NBA CHAMP. But they have James Harden, so the playoff sabotage is coming. And they’re the Clippers, who have never made it to the finals. However, they are a darling for bettors as a favorite. As shown by their 24-12 ATS record when favored by 10 points or less. Just beware when they are double digit faves as they’re just 1-6 ATS in that role.
LA LAKERS: The Lakers won the In-Season Tournament and hung a banner in their arena to honor that momentous achievement. But that’s been about the only thing worth highlighting on an otherwise dismal season. They are stuck in neutral sitting in the play-in game seeding. The only role they thrive in is as a double digit favorite where they’re 3-1 ATS. However, stay far away when they’re a road favorite as they’re just 2-8 ATS in that situation.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES: The Grizzlies season ended before it really even started. They lost their superstar, Ja Morant, to a suspension and then proceeded to lose their first 6 games of the season. And they never dug out of that hole. One area in which they perform well is as a small favorite (5 points or less) as they are 5-2 ATS in that spot. But run far away when they’re a small dog as they are 4-10 ATS in that role.
MIAMI HEAT: The reigning Eastern Conference champs have yet to find their form from last April/May/June. They are an underwhelming 25-30 ATS. They’re worst position is as a home underdog as they are 1-6 ATS in that spot. They play a little better away from home as an underdog as they’re 10-7 ATS when getting points on the road.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS: The Bucks are the 2nd worst team ATS on the season. The addition of Dame Lilliard has made their spreads inflated. And their defense just isn’t good enough to trust with big numbers (17th in defensive rating, they were 4th in 2022-23). They are 2-0 ATS against both the Celtics and Hornets. The latter they see two times next week. We know the bad, but what stands out is they are 3-12 ATS as a double digit favorite.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: The Twolves have surprised most everyone by catapulting to the top of the Western Conference standings. But they aren’t great in the betting market as Vegas has a good pulse on their performances. One area in which they excel is as a home underdog, where they are 3-0 ATS. But they struggle as a small favorite where they are just 4-9 ATS.
NEW YORK KNICKS: The Knicks were a betting favorite in January when they went 13-3 ATS. They’ve come back to earth in February but are still a team finds themselves at the top of the ATS standings. Their biggest strength is as a favorite where they are 21-12 ATS. They struggle in the road dog role as they’re just 6-9 ATS in that spot.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER: If not for the Magic, the Thunder would be the best team to back ATS. They are 23-15 ATS as a favorite and 11-5 ATS as a dog. They can cover on the road (16-11 ATS) or at home (18-9 ATS). Their best leverage situation is as a road underdog as they’re 8-3 ATS in that role. But also look at the 0-to-5 point favorite situation as they’re 7-2 ATS there.
ORLANDO MAGIC: We follow up the Thunder with the best team at covering spreads in the NBA; the Orlando Magic. They are dynamite as a favorite going 15-4 ATS. In particular, they are 7-1 ATS as a small favorite. They’re also 5-1 ATS as a road fave. While it seems like there could be regression in the 2nd half, they already opened with a road win and cover at Indiana. So I’m not fading the team from central Florida at all.
PHILADELPHIA 76ers: The Sixers are my team and I feel like I have a good grasp on them. The problem is, they’re great 1st half betting stats were primarily with the league MVP in their lineup. But now he’s gone and they’ve fallen on bad times. Since his injury in Golden State, the Sixers are 3-7 ATS and SU. While they’ve been good in the favorite role this year, 23-14 ATS, it’s something we’ll have to recalibrate in the 2nd half. I’ll look at them in the mid-dog range as they’re 2-0 in that spot since Embiid’s injury.
PHOEXIX SUNS: Phoenix is another team overvalued in the betting market as they have the 5th worst ATS record. They’re decent as a road dog, 5-4 ATS. But fade them as a home dog as they’re 0-3 ATS in that spot.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS: The Blazers are a bad basketball team. And they aren’t much better in the betting market posting a 25-29 ATS record overall. They’re best role is as a big dog (10 or more points) as they are 12-6 ATS in that role. They are bad as a favorite sitting at 1-4 ATS.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS: The Spurs have the bigger picture in mind. But as they grow a team around Victor Wembanyama, they are still finding ways to compete this season. They thrive in the favorite role, going 4-1 ATS on the season. Where they struggle is on the road when a 5-to-10 point underdog, as they’re 3-10 ATS in that spot.
SACRAMENTO KINGS: The Kings have failed to live up to their expectations coming off a 48-win season and #3 seed in the West. While they are on pace for 47 wins, they’re in the 8th seed in the West and may have to be in the play-in games. Looking at their strengths betting wise, they are 8-5 ATS as a dog on the road. They’re also 3-0 ATS against Denver and 2-0 ATS against LA Lakers. Their weakness is as a big fave. They are 0-3 ATS at home when favored by 10 points or more.
TORONTO RAPTORS: The Raptors punted on the season trading away a few of their core players in OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. But they’re a team to keep an eye on when a small favorite as they’re 7-4 ATS in that role. But stay away when the spread gets over 5 points, as they’re 2-7 ATS as a 5-to-10 point favorite.
UTAH JAZZ: The Jazz have been a pesky team and it shows in the ATS standings. They have the 3rd most ATS wins with 31. In particular, they are 5-0 ATS as a small fave at home. They are middle of the road as an away dog going 11-13 ATS in that role.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS: As we noted earlier, Washington is the best road team ATS with a 19-9 record. They’re also good as a dog of 10 points or more, showing a 13-7 ATS record. Where they’re bad is at home, with a 10-16 ATS record overall.
Fantasy basketball is a totally different beast than baseball or football. NBA DFS is ruled by the players who stay constantly connected, their eyes glued to their phones or their laptops as crucial lineup changes are announced throughout the day. This game isn’t for the faint of heart or the casual player. In order to win big in NBA DFS players must be on top of it 24/7.
The game is all about value. With NBA DFS, your strategy is about getting the most bang for the buck. In order to understand the strategy that will help you do that, let’s first look at how the scoring breaks down for DraftKings and FanDuel, so you know what each site values and what you should prioritize when you build your lineups.
For the most part, these two scoring systems are the same—with some key differences. For one, FanDuel penalizes turnovers with a -1, but DraftKings only docks turnovers at a -0.5 clip. This may lead you to target more accomplished ball handlers on FanDuel to keep from incurring lots of those -1 penalties cutting into your point totals.
Offensive rebounds are virtually the same (1.25 versus 1.2). Free throws and two-point field goals are exactly the same between the two sites, so for your big men, the two sites are pretty much the same on the offensive end. While twos are the same, three-pointers are a little more valuable on DraftKings (3.5 points) versus FanDuel (3 points), so a dead-eye shooter from distance like Steph Curry is worth a little more on DraftKings.
One thing that stands out, too, is that DraftKings rewards big games. In NBA DFS, they give out an extra 1.5 points for double-double games (double-digit scores in two statistical columns between points, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals) and an extra three points for triple-doubles (double-digit scores in three of those statistical columns). Across sports, DraftKings loves the breakout game.
Defensive scoring is calculated as follows:
Defensive scoring is pretty similar here, too, but with some differences: steals are two points on DraftKings and three on FanDuel, just like blocks. Also, just like with offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds are 1.25 to 1.2. Overall, there is a slight advantage to picking up the premium defender in your FanDuel lineup if all other considerations are the same.
Let’s take a look at the different lineups:
Here we see more differences between the sites. On DraftKings, you get eight players, the five standard positions plus three utility-type roles. The first is a guard, and that player can be a PG or SG. You also get a utility forward position, where you have the option to choose a SF or PF. The third utility role is a true utility position, as DraftKings gives you the opportunity to plug in any player.
The lineup construction for FanDuel is a little more standard than DraftKings with a total of nine players: at PG, SG, SF, and PF, and one at C. With no utility player wiggle room here, your job is a little bit easier. An important distinction, though, is that starting this year on FanDuel, only your top eight players count toward your point total. Be mindful of this: while you technically get one more player, the same number of players counts toward your points total. This is a new change, so it’s unclear how it is going to affect strategy, but it seems to favor a stars-and-scrubs approach where you have eight legit players and one guy who is more of a value pick with high upside. That way, if he doesn’t produce for you, that’s OK: you didn’t dedicate too much space in your salary cap to that pick.
Because NBA DFS is so intense to play, knowing the right statistics is important. Start by looking at a player’s fantasy points. If you don’t have time to get into anything else while building your lineups, here is where you can see who has been the most effective day in and day out. The downside, of course, is that everybody else can see that, too. You won’t be able to uncover any value picks here as you survey the slate and build your lineups. Especially as you get started, it’s good to get familiar with these numbers.
The next thing to look at is the standard statistic lines. For anything that is valued by these sites (field goals, free throws, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, and turnovers), it’s easy to find every player’s per game average in that column. Looking at what you’re likely to get from these players and calculating an expected fantasy output is pretty easy thanks to these averages. Look for the type of guys who fill up the box score and add value in all sorts of ways, not just the Carmelo Anthony types who are one dimensional fantasy players because all they add in value are field goals and free throws.
You also want to take a look at how often each player is on the floor. Looking at a player’s minutes-per game on the floor can give you a sense of how integral they are to a team’s offense. You may be looking at two players who have similar stat lines, but if one is on the floor more often than the other guy, you’d want to take the guy who stays out longer, as he’s going to have more chances to rack up points for you. It’s a good rule of thumb to fill your lineups full of players who start for their respective teams, because even the best sixth or seventh man off the bench gets left there some nights.
It is worth your time to take a look at the minutes distribution on different teams. Some teams have a pretty small rotation of key players, with maybe seven or eight guys on the roster actually racking up serious minutes. There are other teams in the league who have really deep rosters and like to rotate ten or twelve guys through each game. Be realistic when assessing a player’s time on the court. Even if a player seems like he should be getting more time on the court, if the coach and front office don’t see it that way, that player will be splitting time and won’t be on the court long enough to get you many points.
Knowing which coaches have a reputation for keeping their starters on the floor will also be beneficial. If a game gets lopsided, some coaches might pull their starters in order to get their reserves some more time on the floor, which would be bad news for you if you have any starters in that lineup. You want your guys to stay out on the court as long as they can to keep racking up the points for your squad.
As you’re deciding between players, though, be sure to look at workload. Some players aren’t impacted much by playing games on back-to-back nights, but some players’ production really takes a hit in those situations. If you’re looking at taking a flier on a player, be sure that they’re not worn out from a tiring game the night before. Especially if your lineup hinges on that player providing big value, be sure that they’re going to be 100 percent for you.
Minutes might tell you who gets on the court a lot and stays there, but if you pick a defensive specialist who isn’t a big part of his team’s offense, you won’t get much fantasy production out of that player. This is why you want to look at a player’s usage. Usage percentage will also help to illuminate how important a player is to his team. This is an advanced statistic that calculates how often the ball is in a player’s hands while he’s on the court.
Ideally, you want to build a lineup full of starters who stay on the court and keep the ball in their hands. Even if they don’t all go for thirty points that night, you’re likely to get some assists, while guys who only touch the ball on field goal attempts won’t have many opportunities to rack up assists for their team (and yours).
“I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times, I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”
Something that makes the NBA different than other sports, though, is streakiness. An NBA player might get hot over a stretch of games and see his numbers shoot up. His attempts may increase too because of his newfound confidence. Targeting these players with the “hot hand” is a good strategy as long as you aren’t overpaying.
As with the MLB, it isn’t just about the players you choose and their strengths, it’s also about who they’re facing off against. A great statistic for you to use when considering defenses is defense versus position (DVP). This stat is the average number of fantasy points that a team allows to a certain position on the court. You typically know who’s going to be guarding who one-on-one, so DVP will help you identify who the weak defenders in the league are. Once you know who these guys are, you should target who’s going up against them.
If you can, target the players who play in up-tempo offenses and are playing against another up-tempo team. Hopefully, the two teams will have a back-and-forth game that gets both of them into the 120s and above.
Team points per game (PPG) is a great statistic to help you figure out how potent an offense is. Ideally, you are looking to match two equal, high-scoring offenses who play at a fast pace and play below-average defense. When you’re looking at matchups trying to find that fast-paced shootout, make sure you check out each team’s pace. A team’s pace is the average number of possessions a team gets per game. More possessions mean more scoring opportunities. You want guys playing on teams with a really high pace factor. Defensive efficiency is a very good statistic for pace, too. It represents the effectiveness of a team’s defense, giving you the average number of points a team allows in every one hundred possessions. If both teams have high numbers with this statistic, this is the kind of game you want to target.
You might wonder what happens when a faster-paced team plays a slowerpaced, better-defending team. In that situation, things typically average out. That tells you that finding one up-tempo team in a matchup isn’t ideal, as it would be better to find a game where two are facing off against one another.
“You can’t get much done in life if you only work on the days when you feel good.”
Strategy in NBA DFS is what will separate you from the rest of the players out there. While it might be tempting at first, you can’t just play LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry every game. NBA players are very consistent from one game to another, so building a lineup with top players and expecting to get more value than their price is a bad decision. The key to winning money at NBA DFS is by using math to find the undervalued players in great matchups, those great value picks.
The system I like to use is 5x, 6x, 7x. If you pick up a top-end guy like a LeBron or KD for $10,000, you need him to produce five times that number, with fifty points for you that night in order for it to be worth it. Because those type of players eat up so much of your salary cap, you need them to do more than just have their average or expected night. You need them to break out for a huge game.
However, you can’t just fill up a lineup full of superstars. You’re going to have to have some mid-level and lower-level salary guys in there too, so for the mid-level guys you want to get six times his salary in terms of fantasy points. Remember that a few bad games might change even a very good player’s valuation and therefore his pricing. This is why it’s so important to do your research: there are always good players out there who are undervalued.
With lower-level salary guys, you’re looking for them to produce seven times their salary. This might seem like a lot to ask, but there are good values to find every night. How do you get these huge breakout value picks, though? That’s the million-dollar question with NBA DFS. Because players are so consistent night in and night out, and there are so many great statistics out there to help players predict fantasy success, it’s not just about picking good players and sitting back hoping to beat the system that way. That won’t work.
What you need to do with NBA DFS is stay up on the news. It sounds like a pretty basic concept, as it seems like every player should be doing this. Still, that really is what separates great fantasy players from mediocre ones. There is a definite skill to acquiring the news and quickly analyzing it. Each night is a new puzzle and only the best problem solvers walk away with the cash each night.
You can follow player updates on various sources throughout the day and if you follow all the NBA beat writers on Twitter, you’ll be up on the latest news from the people closest to the team up until tip-off. That may be a lot to ask, though, because there are so many beat writers and they won’t only be tweeting out injury updates. Everyone has their own method of staying on top of the news, so make sure to find a process that works for you. Be sure to follow the experts and make sure you’re near your computer or phone, so you can get the inside scoop to all the late-dropping news as the lineup lock approaches.
Now, let’s say you find out that a star player is injured and out of the lineup that day. Consider the effect that’s going to have on their team. Imagine the minutes of every game as a pool to be distributed among the players on that team. If a player who is typically on the court for forty minutes a night is now out of the lineup, there are a lot of minutes in that pool up for grabs. There’s also a lot of usage that gets transferred over, too.
Typically, the way it works is that the usage transfers mostly to the other original starters, and the minutes go to the bench players who are now in the lineup. There’s a bump on both sides, though. There are tools that can help you decide what’s going to happen when a starter is out of a team’s lineup. Good projection systems will adjust the usage with the new combination of guys on the court. As injuries linger, more data will become available. The larger the sample size of minutes played together, the more accurate the data on usage and other categories will be. Always check the sample size.
It used to be that both DraftKings and FanDuel locked their lineups at 7:00 p.m. ET, so if a player was a late scratch, fantasy players’ lineups got blown up. This was especially true when teams were getting late into the season with no hope of making the playoffs, so they started tanking to get better draft picks the next year. Because this delay of information was such an issue, DraftKings recently changed their rules. You can swap players in and out until their game tips off.
Again, staying up on the latest news is important. If you’re following Los Angeles beat writers on Twitter and they announce five minutes before tip-off that LeBron is out of the lineup because of a strained calf, you can swap in a player just in time to save your team’s chances that night. Without making that swap, all your research would be down the drain because you’re not going to win money with a zero in your lineup.
These injury scratches are common in other sports too, of course, but in MLB, even though the teams play almost every day, the lineups are typically announced a couple hours prior to the first pitch. In the NFL, teams announce their injured players’ statuses throughout the week and their official inactive players are announced hours before the game. But in the NBA, teams play almost every day and often will pull a player out with only a few minutes to spare before game time, so DraftKings changed their policy on swaps. This is good news for you, but it also means that you need to pay attention to the news for longer, so you don’t miss a single last-minute change.
Unless you can be near your computer from 6:00 p.m. to at least 7:00 p.m. ET every night, playing NBA DFS is probably not for you. It is a serious time commitment. If you’re going to play, you need to make sure that you can play well. If you commit a significant portion of your salary cap to a superstar player, expecting him to rack up major points for you, but then he gets pulled out of the lineup in the few minutes before tip-off and you’re out at dinner, you can kiss your chances of winning good-bye. The players who stay focused don’t get burned like this.
One strategy to use with the late swap is to enter a mock lineup during the day. Hold off on submitting until all the information rolls in from your sources. Then take that extra time to make your optimal lineup. So, if you don’t like any players from the 7:00 p.m. games, you can wait to lock in your players until the 8:00 p.m. games, allowing you an extra hour of research and more time to wait for news to drop.
An important thing to know is that pricing for players is set the night before each game. This means that if one of your starters gets pulled, you may not have to look far for his replacement. If that team has a good sixth man at your starter’s position, you may just want to plug him in as your replacement, especially if the offense is catered toward getting the ball to a player with his profile. Also remember that players from the second unit are priced accordingly, so in this situation you could get a guy at a minimum (or near minimum salary) who will be in the starting lineup for the night, with increased overall usage and minutes.
You can use this knowledge to your advantage when looking for value picks, as well. If you want to set up a stars-and-scrubs lineup, you could do pretty well for yourself by taking a couple superstars who are in great matchups that should play out for 5x points, two to three guys who will produce 5-6x value, and a player or two who are filling in for injured starters but have the skills and role in the offense to produce six or seven times what their cost is to you in terms of salary.
Another way to get the most value is by stacking. Just like in the other sports, you can stack one team or both teams in a game. It would be smart to pick up two to three guys from one team who are set up to provide a lot of value. Maybe you could find a couple guys who are going to be on the floor a lot in a fast paced back-and-forth game or a couple minimum-priced players who are filling in for the night. Let’s say both teams score a lot of points and move the ball quickly up and down the court, so it’s going to be a shootout. Take a look at how the second team’s offense works. If you can, target two to three players from that team who are also key contributors. A shootout— especially one that goes to overtime—will result in a lot of points for you.
Another thing to take a look at is the depth of the whole team. If there are a lot of injuries on their squad and their bench is depleted, they’ll be leaning on five or six guys to produce for them that night. It might be smart to stack that team in a high-scoring game. Stacking three to four players on the same team can be a smart play on occasions where a team is really thin on depth and only has seven or so players in their rotation. Each player will be forced to play heavy minutes, which will translate to good production for you.
Ideal games to stack are games that come down to the final whistle. Not only do you want a high-scoring affair, you also want a game where all the starters and players you roster stay on the court until the buzzer goes off. This is where you can use Vegas to your advantage. Take a look at the spreads in the games. If a spread is five points or less and the over/under is maybe 230 or more, Vegas is predicting a back-and forth high-scoring close game, which will be one for you to stack both sides on. Each time players go up and down the court, whoever it is, you’ll be racking up the points. This is especially true on the off chance the game heads to overtime, as unlike with other sports, the two teams will be scoring points back and forth for the entire overtime period.
Something to remember, especially when paying up for superstars, is that you want your players to be on the court the whole game so that they provide the kind of value you need from them. If you’re going after a player like LeBron, be sure that this game isn’t going to turn into a blowout or that his team isn’t going to pull him off the court early to rest him for the playoffs or to ensure a loss if the team is tanking.
The biggest thing to remember with NBA DFS, though, is that you want to get the picks right. Let the other guys take all sorts of risks on players who they think will have breakout games. What you’re looking to do is build a lineup that has the highest floor possible with some upside, so you know with a certain amount of confidence that your team is going to produce for you. Get the guys who are consistent night in and night out and are underpriced on that given night. Get the guys who are going against a weak defender. When news comes out about players getting pulled for injuries, or sickness, rest, or “rest” late in a losing season, be the player who quickly adjusts on the fly and produces optimal lineups.
To prepare for an average night with a seven-game slate, here’s what I do. The night before or first thing in the morning, I go to the schedule and look at the slate. My plan is to find the potential shootout game by looking at each game’s over/under. I want to find the two to four highest-scoring games and notate them as the potential game stack games. From there, I look to see what players are already ruled out and who is questionable for the slate that I need to keep an eye on throughout the day. Next, I look at who the potential value players will be and look for the high-priced players that are in a juicy matchup that I also want to target.
I try to start each of my lineups by locking in my favorite value players that provide the best lock for 5-7x value. I also lock the higher-priced players who I think have the floor for safety along with the highest ceiling for their price tag. From there, I round out my lineups from a position-by-position standpoint to see who to fill into the proper slots. I notate which positions look deep and which positions look scarce.
I try my best to narrow and adjust my player pool, listing out my favorite four to eight plays at each position. As the day goes, I like to create five to ten mocks and play out different scenarios in my head. For instance: “If the Warriors versus Rockets game turns into a shootout, this would be the lineup that would crush” or “If these two value guys hit and Harden does his thing, this should be a great cash lineup.”
As the day progresses and news is released, I readjust the earlier mocks and create new ones. The part that gets tricky is how much to listen to the “experts.” Throughout the day, podcasts and articles get posted on various sites. With all the new information that comes out and with all the injuries and lineup changes, it’s difficult to adjust your old opinions and keep track of all the potential combinations. If you’re not available and don’t have the time to focus and grind from 6-8:00 p.m. during the NBA season, you should really take the season off because this is when the money is won. It’s crucial to decipher all this information throughout the day and readjust your lineups on the fly. Your 9:00 a.m. lineups will get crushed on most nights if you don’t readjust at least portions of your lineup in response to the new info.
When the news drops, you can find me at my desk focused in, adjusting my lineups as every minute goes by. The feeling of pressure and anxiety is a bit like sitting in a college classroom during a final with only three minutes left, knowing that any second the teacher will tell the class, “Pencils down.” Now, add the fact that you have thousands of dollars at risk.
To be honest, on some days I don’t know how I reached the point where I’m rostering guys I have never even heard of and have $5,000 riding on some scrub getting the first start of his career, but that’s how a typical night of NBA DFS goes. When the games start on those days, I’m sick to my stomach and look at my lineup thinking, “How did I end up with this team? This one guy I took a shot on is going to make or break my lineup.” There is such a sense of relief as 7:00 p.m. comes, though. The only thing left is for the players to play.
Now you can understand the grind of the game and specifically how much skill and effort is needed to be successful. Every day is a new challenge and a new battle to win. The best players out there have found ways to simplify their process and avoid the clutter. Not only do they readjust one lineup, but they have the power to adjust ten, twenty, fifty, or one hundred fifty lineups on the fly. Stay cool under the pressure, be confident, and trust your process. Develop a daily routine that you’re comfortable with. Then constantly refine it until you’ve found a system that works with your schedule and is profitable more often than not.
They say the harder you work, the luckier you get, and one thing I guarantee you is this: the hardest workers in the NBA DFS industry are the ones on top of the leaderboards on most nights. Some call them lucky, but the veterans in the game know the truth.
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Welcome to the Friday edition of Cash with Flash Best Bets! We have NBA & CBB action on tap for tonight so let’s get after it!
Glad to see you and I hope that your sports betting endeavors are going well. It’s been difficult handicapping professional sporting contests during the pandemic but if you’ve been tailing me, listening to my show, or read my books then you have been making money.
Cash with Flash Best Bets has 2020-2021 season-long totals of 66-53-1 for NFL football, 48-21 in NCAAF, 46-36 for NCAAB, 16-9 in NHL, 72-42-1 in the NBA, and 109-50 for tennis this season.
Had you wagered $100 dollars on each pick we offered you’d be ahead of the game by about $12,000 since September 8, 2020. That’s not too bad for tailing Cash with Flash Best Bets.
Thursday was an awful day as we went 0-3 on the night. That leaves us with a 23-18 record through eleven days of this column. Stay in this space and we’ll make you money without taking you on a roller-coaster ride.
In our first week, we won three units and we made that our goal each week. For the week we are down roughly 2.1 units and we have some work to do in order to reach our weekly goals.
Bad nights are a part of the business and we fully expect a bounceback Friday tonight!
You are doing it all wrong if you aren’t practicing some sort of money management system. I discuss a couple of them in my books and I will be sharing little tidbits here in this column at Win Daily.
Managing your cash is numero uno. Hiring someone to pick winners is an easy thing to do but if you don’t have the discipline to manage your money correctly then wagering on sporting events for long-term success won’t likely be successful.
We have nine games on the Friday NBA slate for tonight and plenty of opportunity to Cash with Flash!
Houston Rockets vs Toronto Raptors
Houston is a seven-point road underdog tonight when they face Toronto tonight. The Rockets has lost nine consecutive games and they are up against a Raptors squad that has a two-game losing streak of their own they would love to snap tonight. Houston is still without Christian Wood and without him, the Rockets don’t have the offense to match Raptors Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry. Toronto is 7-1 ATS over their last eight games on one-day rest. Lay the points and go with Toronto to cover the spread in this one.
Atlanta Hawks vs Oklahoma City Thunder
The Hawks enter this matchup as 3.5 point away favorites and have won three of their past five games including a huge 15 point home victory over Boston. OKC has won two of their past five games and eeked out a three-point home victory over San Antonio. This will likely be a tight game all the way up to the end but the Hawks have more firepower offensively and it will be that firepower that will allow Atlanta to cover the spread tonight. Lay the points and take the Hawks to cover.
Sacramento Kings vs Detroit Pistons
The Kings are one-point away favorites and have lost nine consecutive and are 0-9 ATS over those nine losses. Detroit has lost four of its last five games and has covered the spread in two of their past five games. Sacramento has allowed an average of 126 points per game over their past five ballgames while the Pistons have allowed 108 points per game over their past five. Take the point and go with the Pistons at home in this matchup.
Good luck tonight!
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Cash with Flash Best Bets! We have NBA & CBB action on tap for tonight so let’s get after it!Glad to see you and I hope that your sports betting endeavors are going well. It’s been difficult handicapping professional sporting contests during the pandemic but if you’ve been tailing me, listening to my show, or read my books then you have been making money.Cash with Flash Best Bets has 2020-2021 season-long totals of 66-53-1 for NFL football, 48-21 in NCAAF, 46-35 for NCAAB, 16-9 in NHL, 72-40-1 in the NBA, and 109-50 for tennis this season. Had you wagered $100 dollars on each pick we offered you’d be ahead of the game by about $12, 300 since September 8, 2020. That’s not too bad for tailing Cash with Flash Best Bets. Wednesday was a good day as we went 2-1 with our predictions. That leaves us with a 23-15 record through ten days of this column. Stay in this space and we’ll make you money without taking you on a roller-coaster ride.In our fir...
Cash with Flash enters his second week at Win Daily Sports with an 11-7 record. The Flash shares his best NBA Bets for Monday nights five game slate!!Glad to see you and I hope that your sports betting endeavors are going well. It’s been difficult handicapping professional sporting contests during the pandemic but if you’ve been tailing me, listening to my show, or read my books then you have been making money.Cash with Flash Best Bets has 2020-2021 season-long totals of 66-53-1 for NFL football, 48-21 in NCAAF, 41-32 for NCAAB, 16-9 in NHL, 61-35-1 in the NBA, and 103-49 for tennis this season. Had you wagered $100 dollars on each pick we offered you’d be ahead of the game by about $10,900 since September 8, 2020. That’s not too shabby making money off of someone else prowess.Saturday was an awesome day as we went 3-0 in our NBA plays, leaving us with a record of 11-7 and a profitable week at Win Daily Sports!That’s $300 bucks a week had you wagered $100 per pick. Run that out fo...
Isaiah’s Protocol for the NBA DFS slate is built around DraftKings pricing, but is good across the industry with some slight adjustments to salaries on the various sites. I’d like to point out that the players I’m recommending are best used together for cash game purposes. These players are also decent considerations for guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments when used individually with other contrarian type players.
We’re looking at an exciting 4 game NBA DFS slate that’s packed with intriguing players. Ironically, all these teams have been playing every other day, so we have some solid data to look at. Luka Doncic suffered an ugly ankle injury his last time out and his status remains questionable today. This news has a tremendous impact on the entire NBA DFS slate and should be monitored closely. I like to advise all my readers to join the staff at WinDaily in our Discord chat rooms as we discuss some of the important news leading up to tip off, and break down some key players even further.
It’s extremely important to understand that this is a cash game article. My focus is to find 8 players on the DraftKings NBA DFS slate that will get the recommended 300 point total that should be enough to finish in the top 50% of double up, 50/50, or head to head games. For cash games, ownership is far less important as we’re simply looking to find a roster that will finish in the top 50% of the contest, and win some cash. Proper bankroll management is important for limiting the number of deposits you make with your own money. Doubling a wager in cash games is an excellent way to counter risks you may take playing GPP contests. It’s always better to take shots at bigger GPP contests with the “house” money you’ve already won playing cash games.
DraftKings gives us a $50,000 salary cap to roster 8 players. This gives us an average of $6,250 per player. Getting to the recommended 300 point plateau, we need all 8 players to average 37.5 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFPTS). While it may sound challenging, keeping this elementary math in the back of your head while building your roster is important. Limit your risk as much as possible and find 8 players that fit this criteria. Lets take a look at this NBA DFS slate.
Both The Toronto Raptors (-13.5), and The Boston Celtics (-7.5) are up 3 games to none, and could wrap up the series today. Unlike the other games in these series, this is important to make a note on because if they get substantial leads today, they may pull some of the starters to rest them before the next round of games. The Raptors especially, having the second highest implied team total (ITT) on the slate (115.5), make their players high risk/reward candidates.
With the Luka Doncic news pending, there should be some value opening up on this NBA DFS slate. Patrick Beverly (Doubtful, calf injury) is another piece of news, that I may target on both sides of the ball.
Pascal Siakam ($7900) Pascal fits the mold of high risk/reward on this NBA DFS slate. He’s averaging 43 DKFPTS against the Nets in 6 games this season. Siakam is a threat to reach the double/double bonus every time he’s on the floor. He posted a 26/8/5 stat line for 45 DKFPTS last game. After starting out cold in the bubble, his game seems to rounding into form. Pascal scores 1.16 fantasy points (FP) per minute, and has a decent usage rate of 27.5%. He’s matched up against a Brooklyn squad that ranks 26th against power forwards. The Nets look to have all but given up on the season. $7900 is just too cheap for the upside here. I’m taking the risk that he gets at least 30 minutes, and 40 DKFPTS, for 5X value.
Fred VanVleet ($7700) VanVleet is another guy who has been on point in the bubble. I love targeting Raptors against this banged up, defensively deficient Brooklyn squad. Fred’s salary still doesn’t seem to be increasing enough, as his 6 game average verse the Nets dictates 46 DKFPTS this season. That alone would give him 6X value. I think he’s playing better than those numbers represent. I see VanVleet as the forth starter to leave the court in a blowout scenario, after Gasol, Lowry, and Siakam.
Others I’m considering in the upper tier on this NBA DFS slate include Paul George ($8000), Kyle Lowry ($8100), and Rudy Gobert ($7800).
Jamal Murray ($6800) Jamal’s minutes were down the last 2 games verse Utah after getting blown out. His salary and ownership dropped as well! Murray is still averaging 42 DKFPTS in just over 35 minutes/gm. verse the Jazz in 5 games this season. I expect Murray and the Nuggets to step up in a big way today after watching Donovan Mitchell attempt to flush their season down the toilet. Anything close to his season averages gets us 6X value. He’s a key piece (with upside) in our cash game lineups.
Serge Ibaka ($5800) Ibaka seems to be fully recovered from a knee issue that sidelined him earlier this month. Feasting on this Brooklyn front court seems like easy pickings on this NBA DFS slate, especially with a Raptor bench player that may see his full allotment of minutes. Anything around this 36 DKFPTS average against the Nets this season, gives us 6X value. Using his salary at center gives us a lot of extra salary to work with. It may also be a contrarian move with a lot of people paying up for a stud at the center position.
Mike Conley ($6300) Conley picked up right where he left off, after leaving the bubble for the birth of his baby. He didn’t miss a beat, shooting 9-13 from the field, draining 7 of 8 from behind the arc, and adding 27 points. Utah’s 37 point thrashing of Denver on Thursday gave him 38.5 DKFPTS on his $5900 salary. That equated to just under 7X value. He got a nice bump in salary but I still think he’s a viable option in cash games.
I really like the combination of Jaylen Brown ($7300) and Kemba Walker ($6900) in cash game lineups at these salaries. Boston will be without the services of Gordon Hayward (ankle) for a while. I expect Marcus Smart to be deployed as a defensive specialist to slow down Tobias Harris and annoy Embiid as much as possible. The Celtics will be looking to lean on the other starters to step up their offense. I’m not 100% sold on rostering Celtics knowing they may get pulled for rest if Philadelphia doesn’t show up for this do-or-die game. Their respective salaries are enticing for cash game purposes on this NBA DFS slate.
As I mentioned earlier, The Luka Doncic/Patrick Beverly news in that DAL/LAC game should open up some nice value on this NBA DFS slate. If Doncic can’t play, look for Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5700), Seth Curry ($4600), Trey Burke ($4100), and even Delon Wright ($3500) to step up their games offensively. On the flip side, if defensive specialist Patrick Beverly can’t go, I expect Landry Shamet ($3400) to get the start at PG, and both Lou Williams ($5900), and Reggie Jackson ($3500) to see bumps in production.
Shake Milton ($4400) Milton is looking to plant an anchor as a future piece of the Sixer squad. His minutes and productivity have been steadily increasing, and I expect him to see solid minutes today for a Philadelphia team desperate to find offense anywhere they can.
Some others I’m considering on this NBA DFS slate are Marcus Morris Sr. ($5400), Jordan Clarkson ($5300), Ivica Zubac ($4400), Monte Morris ($3900)
I highly encourage all readers to join myself, and the rest of the WinDaily family in the Discord chat rooms as we break down and discuss our favorite plays further. Thank you for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or hit me up on Twitter @IsaiahsProtocol.
We’re looking at an exciting 4 game NBA DFS slate that’s packed with intriguing players. There is some injury news out there to keep an eye on. I like to advise all my readers to join the staff at WinDaily in our Discord chat rooms as we discuss some of the important news leading up to tip off, and break down some key players even further.
It’s extremely important to understand that this is a cash game article. My focus is to find 8 players on the DraftKings NBA DFS slate that will get the recommended 300 point total that should be enough to finish in the top 50% of double up, 50/50, or head to head games. The roster building process is different for GPP tournaments where it’s wise to use more expensive players for their scoring upside, and pair them with players that may exceed their value to get you in the top 10% of your contest. Finding high risk/reward players while paying close attention to ownership percentages is important to differentiate your lineup in GPP’s. For cash games, ownership is far less important as we’re simply looking to find a roster that will finish in the top 50% of the contest, and win some cash. Proper bankroll management is important for limiting the number of deposits you make with your own money. Doubling a wager in cash games is an excellent way to counter risks you may take playing GPP contests. It’s always better to take shots at bigger GPP contests with the “house” money you’ve already won playing cash games.
Jamal Murray ($7200) Jamal has been absolute fire lately. He played his average 40 minutes verse Utah on Monday finishing with 36 points, 9 assists, and 5 rebounds. He scored just under 60 DKFPTS in that game, crushing value at just under 10X. Murray did get a bump in salary, but still averages 51 DKFPTS verse the Jazz in his 3 games against them this season. Those numbers equate to a safe 7X value at this salary.
Fred VanVleet ($7600) VanVleets is another guy who has been on point in the bubble. He flies a bit under the radar with players like Lillard dominating the headlines. I love targeting Raptors against this banged up, defensively deficient Brooklyn squad. Fred also got a substantial salary increase after dropping 60 DKFPTS on the Nets Monday. His 4 game average against the Nets dictates 47 DKFPTS this season. That alone would give him 6X value, and I think he’s playing better than those numbers represent.
Serge Ibaka ($5700) Ibaka seems to be fully recovered from a knee issue that sidelined him earlier this month. Serge has played 25+ minutes in the last 2 games and scored 38, and 43 DKFPTS in those games respectively. Keeping with the Raptor target theme, and feasting on this Brooklyn frontcourt seems like easy pickings on this NBA DFS slate. Anything around this 40 DKFPTS average gives us 7X value, and plugging him in at center (and using the value below) allows us to pay up for just about any stud we want.
Including the value below, there should be enough salary to do anything you like. Using another value piece should enable you to pay up for Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard, or Joel Embiid. I think for cash games I’m leaning more on finishing my roster build with a balanced approach.
I really like the combination of Jaylen Brown ($7500) and Kemba Walker ($6800) at this point. Boston will be without the services of Gordon Hayward (ankle) for a while. I expect Marcus Smart to be deployed as a defensive specialist to slow down Tobias Harris and annoy Embiid as much as possible. The Celtics will be looking to lean on the other starters to step up their offense.
Other players I’m considering in the mid-range of this NBA DFS slate include Paul George ($8600), Caris LaVert ($8200), Kyle Lowry ($8000), Pascal Siakam ($7500), and Rudy Gobert ($7400).
I’ve been finding it difficult to roster some quality, consistent, affordable forwards on this NBA DFS slate. Listing them here will give me a little savings to squeeze in my spend ups, while filling this difficult position.
Joe Ingles ($5600) Ingles has been averaging around 44 minutes a game verse the Nuggets and scored 37 DKFPTS in both games last week. Bogdonovic opted out of the bubble earlier this season. Even though Conley returned to the bubble yesterday, he still has to self-quarantine for a bit. This leaves the Jazz backcourt wide open for as many minutes as Ingles can handle. Feel confident firing Ingles up once again in that difficult SF position, hoping he exceeds his average 7X value at that salary.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (TLC) ($4700) TLC has looked pretty good lately. He had 26 points and 7 rebounds, for 40 DKPTS against Toronto on Monday. TLC has been playing north of 30 minutes in the last week. I expect more of the same on this NBA DFS slate. Anything over 33 DKFPTS will give us 7X value on this salary, and TLC is also PF eligible on DraftKings. I don’t hate rostering him at that spot enabling me to pay up elsewhere.
Some others I’m considering are Marcus Morris Sr. ($4800), Jordan Clarkson ($4700), Alec Burks ($4600), Ivica Zubac ($4500), Monte Morris ($3700), and Semi Ojeleye ($3000).
Gordon Hayward has already been ruled out for Boston, and Kristaps Porzingas remains highly questionable in the late game today (which is NOT ideal).
I highly encourage all readers to join myself, and the rest of the WinDaily family in the Discord chat rooms as we break down and discuss our favorite plays. Thank you for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or hit me up on Twitter @IsaiahsProtocol.
The NBA playoffs are finally here. We’re looking at an exciting 4 game NBA DFS slate that’s packed with intriguing players. There is some injury news out there to keep an eye on. I like to advise all my readers to join the staff at WinDaily in our Discord chat rooms as we discuss some of the important news leading up to tip off, and break down some key players even further.
Rudy Gobert ($7700) I know there are probably better options at center with Gobert squaring off against Nikola Jokic, and the Denver Nuggets. Keep in mind that we’re staying focused on the math (above). Rudy is a key starting piece of the Utah frontcourt and will be leaned on heavily for his presence down low. In 3 games vs. the Nuggets this season he averages 40 minutes, and supplies a 20 point, 13 rebound double double. Gobert is also one of the better defending big men in the NBA, so there may be some added secondary stats as well. This equates to a 41 DKFPTS average.
Pascal Siakam ($7500) Pascal hasn’t looked to be the superstar he’s supposed to be in the bubble so far. This is the playoffs, and a different story. It’s been a long known fact in NBA DFS to target big men verse the Brooklyn Nets. This is no exception. Toronto is the biggest favorite on the NBA DFS slate (-9.5), and has the second highest expected point total (222). I love targeting this Raptor squad as much as possible. In 3 games verse the Nets this season, Pascal is averaging 35 minutes, 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists. That gives him 45 DKFPTS on average for $7500. Lock him in at the tricky PF spot on your roster.
This is where I will be locking in 3, if not all 4 (including utility) of my guard spots on this NBA DFS slate. I’m not going to break them all down as they should speak for themselves. All 4 of them are starters projected for at least 30 minutes, have 40 DKFPTS upside, and have salaries that fit perfectly in our template. They are all seasoned veterans that should thrive in running their respective offenses in the playoff hunt.
Kemba Walker ($6900)
Fred VanVleet ($6800)
Jamal Murray ($6500)
Mike Conley ($6300)
While we may have overspent a little so far, I think we can still make it happen. Let me give you a list of potential players I’m considering to finish filling out my cash game roster. I’ve listed them in order of salary, not upside, or favorite.
Joe Harris ($4700), Marc Gasol ($4300)(keep an eye on Ibaka’s status here), Marcus Morris Sr. ($4200), Alec Burks ($3900), Jordan Clarkson ($3800), Chris Boucher ($3700) (again, Ibaka status), Monte Morris ($3600), Royce O’Neal ($3500)
I highly encourage all readers to join myself, and the rest of the WinDaily family in the Discord chat rooms as we break down and discuss our favorite plays on this NBA DFS slate. Thank you for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or hit me up on Twitter @IsaiahsProtocol.
Cash with Flash Best Bets is back for another day of sports betting picks. Wednesday was a better day as we went 1-1 but we also lost the NBA for who knows how long. That leaves us at 3-6 for the week and we need to right the ship before it sinks. We have all sorts of March Madness conference tournaments happening plus the NHL season and it truly is a maddening time of the year.Be sure that you are wise with your money during this period; it’s easy getting sucked into action with all the opportunities that are available to you. If you want to win money on a consistent basis then you need to join Win Daily Sports. $19.99 per month gets you everything we have to offer here including Discord Chat access. Bankroll ManagementCan’t stress enough how important managing your bankroll is to your long-term success. I don’t know your personal financial situation or what your goals are but hopefully, you are using some type of bankroll management plan to help you reach them.DiscordW...
Isaiah’s Protocol for the NBA DFS slate is researched using DraftKings (DK) pricing. The players are good across the industry with some slight adjustments to salaries on the various sites. Some players may not be listed here because I prefer them on FanDuel (FD). I like to advise all my readers to join the staff at WinDaily, in our Discord chat rooms, as we discuss some of the important news of the day and break down some of these intriguing plays even further.
Most of the players I recommendare best used together for cash game purposes. These players are also decentconsiderations for guaranteed prize pool (GPP) games when used individuallywith other contrarian type players.
We are looking at an interesting 6 game NBA DFS slate tonight. I think there is an abundance of decent mid-level players tonight which is pushing me towards a balanced approach to roster construction. While there are some value players available, expected injury/rest news should open up some more value so that we can get to the stars tonight.
Luka Doncic ($11000) Luka is a little banged up right now with a sprained right wrist. He also got sick last week and battled a sprained left thumb. None of these things stopped him from dropping 63.25 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFPTS) on the Spurs last night. Doncis’s 37.9% usage rate and 1.66 fantasy points (FP) per minute, both get huge bumps when Porzingas is off the floor. It’s not an ideal matchup against a Nugget team that ranks 13th in defensive efficiency (DEFF) and 7th in (DVA) which is a rank given to the opponent when facing this player’s archetype. Luka is basically matchup proof and needs to be considered when constructing your rosters.
Trae Young ($10400) With Luka projected to have 57.24% of the ownership, I don’t see how we don’t look to pivot to Trae’s 22%. He looked to be a little “off” in his last game and I hope that keeps his ownership low. Looking to be healthier after fighting the Flu last week, Trae carries a 37.1% usage rate and scores 1.44 FP/min. He’s squaring off against a Knick team that ranks 26th in both DEFF and DVA vs. opposing point guards (PG). New York is also on the second half of a B2B after a dismal performance last night against the lowly Wizards. Young has averaged 67.4 DKFPTS in 2 games vs. the Knicks and is quickly becoming my favorite player on the entire NBA DFS slate.
Julius Randle ($7800) Randle had a sub-par performance against Washington last night and I’m hoping this keeps his ownership low. I’m going right back to the well tonight. Randle has a 27.3% usage rate and scores 1.15 FP/min. Julius also spanked Atlanta in both of his previous games to the tune of an average of 49.6 DKFPTS as the Hawks rank 16th in DEFF and 19th in DVA against opposing power forwards (PF). John Collins ($9100) is listed questionable but probable with an ankle sprain. Elfrid Payton ($6500) was also a little “off” last night and I love a little game stack to take advantage of this spot tonight.
Danilo Gallinari ($5900) Nothing eye-popping here. Danilo has a 23% usage rate and scores just over an FP/min. He averages between 30-32 minutes a game and scored 35.3 DKFPTS against Utah in his previous game with them. He may get a slight bump in production tonight if SGA misses this contest. The math checks out here as 35 DKFPTS gets him to 6X value. This makes him one of the most stable, and cheap, core options to start building your roster with.
Nemanja Bjelica ($5500) The frontcourt situation has gotten a bit murky in Sacramento with the return of Richaun Holmes ($5000). The one constant for the Kings all season has been Bjelica. He still managed to play 30 minutes last game with 3 big men available. I want to find some exposure to the best game on this NBA DFS slate and Nemanja looks to be a cheap answer. He has a 17.3% usage rate and scores just under an FP/min. The Pelicans rank 17th in DEFF and 25th in DVA vs. opposing PF’s.
I realize that this isn’t the sexiest of lists. I’m just trying to show that these players will be a “core” of my rosters. They should allow me to build in different ways involving higher-priced players and value, or a solid mid-tier roster that will be best suited for cash games.
Bam Adebayo ($9000), Tobias Harris ($8500), Christian Wood ($8100), Lonzo Ball ($7900), Zion Williamson ($7800), De’Aaron Fox ($7800), Al Horford ($7400), Elfrid Payton ($6500), Will Barton ($6200), Dennis Schroder ($6200)(a core play if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits), Mitchell Robinson ($5700), Buddy Hield ($5400), Brandon Knight ($4900), Mike Scott ($4800)(only if Joel Embiid is out).
Maxi Kleber ($4600) Averaging .88 FP/min, and 30+ minutes in games that Porzingas has missed, Kleber looks to be one of the best value plays on the NBA DFS slate.
Bobby Portis ($4200) Taj Gibson ($3100) is slowly being faded into oblivion and Portis looks to be the sixth man filling in at both the PF and Center spots. Mitchell Robinson ($5700) is no stranger to foul trouble and attacking this Hawks frontcourt has been DFS gold. Portis also fits nicely into that game stack I alluded to earlier.
Thon Maker ($3100) There aren’t any “Bigs” left in Detroit and Henson has an ankle injury. This is a minute/value play only if Henson misses the game.
Boban Marjanovic ($3000) Willie Cauley-Stein ($3000) was held out of the last game battling an illness. With no Porzingas, hit the lock button here if WCS has to sit again.
There are a ton of players to like tonight. I simply don’t have the time to write all of them up. I highly encourage all readers to join myself, and the rest of the WinDaily team in the Discord chat rooms as we break down and discuss our favorite plays. Thank you for reading my content and feel free to leave a comment, or leave me a message on Twitter @IsaiahsProtocol.
GOODLUCK AND HAVE FUN