What a week! Having been knocking on the door at every PGA Tour event in 2024, we finally saw one of our golfers get across the line. Obviously, that was in a rather big way with Matthieu Pavon making these pages at a massive 125/1! A huge bet landing, but also our first real signature event of the season as we preview what to expect from Pebble Beach.
Incredible!!! What a win! 🇫🇷🔥Pavon a 125/1 winner for us 🔥LET'S GOOOOOOO!MASSIVE.#FarmersInsuranceOpen #FIO #Pavon #matthieupavon pic.twitter.com/bKtActPEoz— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) January 28, 2024
Incredible!!! What a win! 🇫🇷🔥Pavon a 125/1 winner for us 🔥LET'S GOOOOOOO!MASSIVE.#FarmersInsuranceOpen #FIO #Pavon #matthieupavon pic.twitter.com/bKtActPEoz
Of course, it was a result that had been coming for quite sometime. At all three PGA Tour tournaments, we had who seemed the likely winner right there on Sunday. Theegala was runner-up and Spieth 3rd at The Sentry. We had Henley, Grillo, and Putnam at the Sony Open. Henley should’ve probably won that event, as should Sam Burns at the American Express last week. I always reiterate, the key is to trust the process. As we continue to find the likely winner at events, the more they are in the position to do so and come Sunday one will eventually find his way tot he top of the podium.
💰This win has been coming for awhile! 💰🍬Having been so close every tournament in 2024 only makes a MASSIVE Matthieu Pavon hit sweeter 🍬Our "Best Deal Guaranteed" has been up for nearly a month now. It is set to expire 31st January 😱Purchase an annual membership for $240… pic.twitter.com/hxR6ooEeJU— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) January 28, 2024
💰This win has been coming for awhile! 💰🍬Having been so close every tournament in 2024 only makes a MASSIVE Matthieu Pavon hit sweeter 🍬Our "Best Deal Guaranteed" has been up for nearly a month now. It is set to expire 31st January 😱Purchase an annual membership for $240… pic.twitter.com/hxR6ooEeJU
We can’t get too greedy having hit a huge winner last week. Despite the huge hit, we still had a few close calls. Patrick Rodgers secured himself a 9th place finish. That cashed our Top 20 bet on him at +300. He did miss out by one shot on a full place payout at +1320. Zalatoris looks well on the way to recovery, finishing 13th for us just two shots off a full place at +900. Schenk was one shot off cashing his Top 20 bet at +450. All around, a very profitable week obviously. Let’s go get some more with our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview!
Tickets we are cashing this week 🎟️💵#FarmersInsuranceOpenPavon0.5pts WIN +125000.5pts Top 8 Place +25001pt Top 20 +5002pt Top 40 +230Rodgers2pt Top 20 +300Eckroat2pt Top 40 +163 (reduced to 2/3 due dead-heat)#RAKGolfChamps Shinkwin0.5pts Top 8 Place +20001pt Top…— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) January 29, 2024
Tickets we are cashing this week 🎟️💵#FarmersInsuranceOpenPavon0.5pts WIN +125000.5pts Top 8 Place +25001pt Top 20 +5002pt Top 40 +230Rodgers2pt Top 20 +300Eckroat2pt Top 40 +163 (reduced to 2/3 due dead-heat)#RAKGolfChamps Shinkwin0.5pts Top 8 Place +20001pt Top…
Some important changes this year to note in our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview. With the move to a Signature Event, keeping the sponsors happy with all the best available players here, we also see the reduction to a field size of just 80 players.
This means we see the third course in rotation, Monterey Peninsula, dropped. Amateurs will only play first two rounds, with all the professionals playing 4 rounds with no cut. The first two rounds are split between Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach. Pebble Beach Golf Links will then host the final two rounds.
This should prove easier than the confusing mangle of data when three courses were in rotation and required analysis. Particularly, with three rounds on Pebble Beach it means we can near exclusively focus on players suitability to that course and what is required in our preview.
Pebble Beach is a rather unique and quirky test. The iconic course is very short. Sitting at under 7,000 yards it is the shortest par 72 on the PGA Tour. Greens are also some of the smallest we see of the regular PGA Tour stops at just 3,500 sq feet on average. Despite the short distance, cliffs and hazards determine that it can’t simply be overpowered by the driver. However, with the 4th widest fairways on Tour driving accuracy is also of limited importance here. As such, we see nearly all players playing from the same approach distance often.
This sees one of the largest concentrated pockets of approach shots all season, with 100-150 yard approach essential to success. With the tiny greens, there is also a large uptick in both SG: ATG and SG: Putting. These both receive heavy weighting in my model. Especially, considering the current inclement weather predicted which we will discuss shortly.
Firstly, as we preview some course comps for Pebble Beach it is worth noting course history is somewhat transitive at this event. It becomes difficult to untangle individual performance on each track with a myriad of factors in account. For example, if a day in particular played more difficult in general should we read too much into a golfer’s performance on whichever course they were on? If this event does remain across the two courses, especially with three rounds at Pebble Beach Golf Links, deciphering suitability and crossover to other tournaments may become easier.
The same can be said when discussing comp courses. I believe Harbor Town should prove somewhat decent guidance. Like Pebble Beach, we see a large deviation from standard driving distance. Greens are also extremely small, with increased missed GIR seeing a boost in SG: ATG and SG: Putting. Mav McNealy finished 4th at the RBC Heritage the same year he was runner-up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Jordan Spieth has an excellent record at both and is a winner at each.
The RSM Classic could also be a useful guide. Another coastal tournament, it uses a rotation between the Seaside Course and longer Plantation Course. General form in California is appreciated, as is performance on these tricky poa annua greens.
You know the weather must be bad when the rest of golf Twitter is suddenly alight with forecast take! Of course, we always preview weather as an essential component of our analysis and especially at Pebble Beach. It seems bizarre not to when no other sport is more subject to the elements.
Objectively, the weather does indeed look dreadful this week. There is a large frontal system moving along the coast, with the first wave to hit overnight Wednesday.
Thursday itself should be calm. However, it is worth noting the huge amount of rain forecast overnight with high winds. There may be delays due flooding or downed trees with branches that need retrieving before play can commence. Friday will again see light rain, with some moderate gusts in the afternoon.
Saturday sees much of the same. Sunday is where it looks to get really gnarly. The rest of the storm is forecast to arrive, bringing extremely heavy rain and winds gusting up to 60mph. I wouldn’t be surprised if no play occurs on that day. Especially, considering the exposed nature of Pebble Beach you could easily see balls unable to remain still on the greens. Expect either a 54 hole event or a Monday finish (which still looks very wet and windy).
What should we make of this? Given breadth of the weather, the best approach is likely simply finding golfers who have positive performance in wet and windy conditions. I do have a slight preference to playing the more exposed Pebble Beach on the Thursday. Spyglass Hill receives a modicum of protection due to the trees on the property.
You can find latest forecast details here.Make sure to check in the WinDaily Premium Discord for up to date weather information using premium models, right up until first tee-time.
Thank you for reading my Pebble Beach preview and tournament analysis.If you would like to read my golf betting tips and player profiles for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, you can preview these here.
For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.
Find my Profit and Loss Tracker here.We believe trust and transparency is key in this industry. We keep meticulous result tracking, so you can sign-up with the utmost confidence you are joining one of the sharpest golf bettors on the planet.
JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $499.99.ENDS 31 JANUARY 2024.
You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.
One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have
I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!
David takes the business international, joining the team from New Zealand and having grown up in Dubai. It was when living in the Middle East where he first developed his love of golf whilst working at local DP World Tour events, getting inside the ropes with the world’s best, and being fortunate enough to be coached as a junior by elite instructor Justin Parsons. Despite having experience working in multiple other areas of the sports industry, golf remains his main passion. David relies heavily on data, agronomy, topography, and meteorology in providing his @DeepDiveGolf analysis and betting tips for both the PGA and DP World Tour events. View Dave's P&L Tracker »
"*" indicates required fields
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” Sure, we want to help you win that big DFS tournament. But we want you to have a greater enjoyment of Daily Fantasy Sports while you are doing it. Along the way, you also may learn some life lessons and gain some perspectives you may have never considered before.