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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 14

I can’t believe it’s already Week 14. Season-long leagues will finally come to a close and playoff brackets will be set by Monday night, but that’s another fantasy side, we’re here for DFS. Sunday brings us another torturous slate loaded with 30-point slates. Eleven games are packed with plenty of options to build your lineups along with your bankroll, so let’s get to it.

As always, stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice in our Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups.

Sunday Main Slate 12/10/23

Rams @ Ravens (-7) (O/U 40)

Watch the forecast for Baltimore, as it could turn out to be a soggy afternoon. Baltimore’s defense is tenacious as it is, add the elements and it might be a long day for Matt Stafford. The Ravens DST is priced just right on DraftKings ($3,300) but not so interesting on FanDuel ($4,500). Love the narrative for Odell Beckham Jr. against his former team, tearing his ACL in Super Bowl LVI where he played a huge role in the Rams’ victory. OBJ is worthy of a dart throw, priced below $4K on DraftKings, and could land in the box easily against the Rams’ beatable secondary.

Lions @ Bears (+3.5) (O/U 43.5)

Great game to mini-stack in a divisional matchup for two teams with plenty to prove. Detroit’s defense has not been the same lock-down, three-and-out juggernaut as it was earlier in the year (CJ Gardner Johnson out since Week Two), and Justin Fields is playing for his career in Chicago (If Carolina ends up with the number-one pick, it goes to Chicago). Fields and DJ Moore make total sense, and any Lions of your choice, who pretty much anybody can make a case for in DFS. Careful using Jared Goff (on the road and outdoors) but David Montgomery returning to his old stomping ground in Chicago should elevate his game and smash his midrange price tag on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Panthers @ Saints (-5) (O/U 37.5)

Careful here fellas, Carolina has been better on defense, especially with Jaycee Horn back since Week One. But even he wasn’t enough to stop Mike Evans last week, who went for (7REC/162YDS/1TD). However, The Panthers held Rachaad White to just 80 rushing yards, so beware of sliding in Kamara as your pay-up running back.

The Saints refuse to sit a banged-up Derek Carr and continue to roll out Taysom Hill for goal-line work and trick-pony plays. Neither are safe plays besides Chris Olave and the Saints’ DST, who may feast off rookie quarterback’s Bryce Young struggle under center.

Texans @ Jets (+3.5) (O/U 33.5)

More weather concerns here, which could slow down CJ Stroud against a tough Jets defense. Being without one of his favorite targets Tank Dell (IR) may also cool off the Ohio State rookie phenom, so consider the Jets’ DST as a sub $3K option on DraftKings. Now tight end Dalton Schultz didn’t make the trip out to the big city, which leaves another opportunity for Brevin Jordan to step up, as he did last week scoring nine fantasy points. Jordan is still a 3X option at the tight end with Schultz off the radar.

Not touching anybody on the Jets…except for that defense. If the weather does become a factor come Sunday, the Jet’s defense is very capable of forcing some turnovers and keeping the score low.

Colts @ Bengals (+1) (O/U 44)

Looking to skimp on a quarterback? Check into this game. Jake Browning has shown us enough on Monday night, delivering the ball to his playmakers Ja’Maar Chase and Joe Mixon. Gardner Minshew has also pumped life into the Colts playoff hopes this season. Both are viable plays for quarterback at their bargain salaries, especially Browning after his 30-point performance. The field was all over Zack Moss last week, and he crapped the bed for 7 fantasy points. Roll the dice one more time as he could be chalk again filling in the shoes of running back for Jonathon Taylor. Trust in Moss who we’ve seen go bonkers up and down the field earlier in the year, this may be the last time he’s affordable.

Jaguars @ Browns (-3.5) (O/U 30.5)

It’s a sick total with a game-time decision Trevor Larence and a Browns’ quarterback competition featuring the 38-year-old Joe Flacco. Start these defenses along with tight end David Njoku (30 targets since Week 10), who may have a big game without Amari Cooper potentially eating from his plate. Fingers crossed for Flacco, who knows where his bread is buttered and fully capable of delivering the football (Two touchdown passes in his Browns’ debut).

The Jags lost Christian Kirk to IR, which boosts Zay Jones up the pecking order in targets for Jacksonville. But his production will be in the hands of Trevor Lawrence, who may not be at 100 percent if he does play. Zay is as far as I would reach against this tough Browns’ defense at home. Consider them also for DFS as a bargain on DraftKings ($3,000).

Seahawks @ Niners (-10.5) (O/U 47)

We have a lopsided NFC West matchup to begin the afternoon, but the total looks promising for some action. Geno Smith will be the key factor for Seattle to score, as both running backs Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are game-time decisions. There’s no doubt the Niners will light up the scoreboard at home, but which Geno Smith will show up? If last week’s against the Cowboys does, expect some heavy peppering of targets to DK Metcalf and slot rookie receiver Jaxson-Smith Njigba, especially if both Seattle running backs don’t suit up.

The Niners put on a show in Philadelphia last weekend, and let the world know in prime time who the best is in the NFC. They’ll look to keep the ball rolling, and all are in play for DFS as usual. Brandon Aiyuk has the best match-up on paper against Seattle when they line up and play zone defense.

Update: Geno Smith is now a game-time decision

Vikings @ Raiders (+3) (O/U 34)

The Vikes will welcome back Justin Jefferson with open arms as he returns from injured reserve. But we are yet to see if any chemistry exists between him and Josh Dobbs, so JJ is a GPP play for me. Perhaps TJ Hockenson is too since the field will most likely pay down this week for a tight end, and Hockenson eats as JJ takes away coverage.

Davante Adams may also be another sneaky receiver for DFS in this game. He’s been the clear go-to guy since Week 10 collecting 33 targets against a beatable Minnesota secondary (23 in DVOA to opposing receiver), Adams could float under the radar in tournaments for high double-digit production.

Bucs @ Falcons (-2) (O/U 41)

The Falcons have plenty to play for as they close in on the NFC South title and Arthur Smith has finally figured out his offense, get the ball into the hands of your best players. Bijan Robinson is averaging 20 carries a game in his last three contests. Nothing spectacular but Bijan offers a safe floor for DFS and a pivot from the chalk running backs.

When the Bucs make the Main Slate, the first thing I check is if I can afford Mike Evans’ salary. Tampa’s future Hall of Fame has been matchup-proof all season, averaging close to 20 fantasy points a game. No matter who is hiking the ball for the Bucs, Evans is force-fed the ball every week.

Bills @ Chiefs (-1.5) (U/O 48.5)

We’ve got the highest total in a close game between two AFC powerhouses that are struggling to get back on the winning track. Buffalo’s crucial losses throughout the season have them in danger of missing the playoffs, and Kansas City has been lost at the receiver position, winning with their defense and running the ball.

Now that Isaiah Pacheco has been ruled out Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerrick McKinnon will have larger roles, great options for cash games. If they are unable to move the ball for KC, expect Rashee Rice to see plenty more targets from Patrick Mahomes, as the rookie has emerged as the WR1 since no one else besides him and Kelce can catch the football.

Buffalo will be pushing all their chips into the middle of the table for Week 14 to keep their playoff hopes alive. A win for the Bills would need a little extra help from their complimentary players. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs play a giant role in the offense, but Gabe Davis, James Cook, and Khalil Shakir will see lesser coverage, so good only for these guys.

Broncos @ Chargers (-2.5) (O/U 44)

I like Wilson in a bounce-back game against the Chargers this week, but their defense has been stepping it up lately. However, Javonte Williams will be in a smash spot, as LA has allowed well over 100 rushing yards per game all season. Head coach Sean Payton has finally figured out who deserves to lead the backfield, Javonte under $6K on DraftKings gives you a safe floor for double-digit fantasy points in the evening slate.

Chargers head coach Brandon Staley hinted at a “committee” approach in his running back room, so Austin Ekeler’s snaps could be on the downside this weekend. Too bad, because the Broncos have struggled all year to stop the run, and currently sit at dead last in DVOA (32nd). Keep Ekeler away from cash games but by all means use him in tournaments, as the field should shy away from rostering him after the news broke.

Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen are always in play, and also tournament plays because of the higher salaries. But take a gander at Gerald Everett as a punt at tight end this week. The Broncos are 31st in DVOA against opposing tight ends, and if the Chargers are looking to chuck the ball even more, Everett could easily pay off his salary and then some.

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 14. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

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