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I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas, Hannukah, Kwanzaa or Festivus. I personally have two more family Christmas parties to celebrate so the holiday season is still in full effect. But after a fun filled day of NFL and NBA, we turn our attention to College Football. Today starts the last 25 bowl games of the season. If you’ve followed me in WinDaily discord, I’m 4-0 to start the Bowl Season so far. And while that’s surely to change, as losses will come, I’m looking to see if we can have a big college football bowl season and will be posting all bowl games (between articles and discord) over the next week.
There are 3 games on the slate today and I will go over each below. Bowl games are very difficult for both bettors and Vegas as we have so much movement with the transfer portal and coaching staffs. Did you know someone can elect to enter the transfer portal but still play their bowl game with their current team? It’s really free agency in college which I’m not sure how I feel about it. Obviously, kids should be given a choice. But to see over 100 QB’s in the portal for only 133 starting positions, is really mind blowing. Anyway, onwards we go as we’ll try and work through the labyrinth of which teams have the proper stability, along with motivation and personnel, to cover their spreads.
Minnesota lost four straight to end the season and finished with a 5-7 record. But they were able to get a bowl game due to number of teams needed to fill all the spots and Minnesota having a high Academic Progress Rate. And that should be enough for PJ Fleck to use as motivation to get his team ready to play today. They might not have deserved it, but they earned it based on their academic focus. Additionally, BGSU came to Minnesota two years ago and pulled off a massive upset as a 30.5 point dog. That has to be floating around the Minnesota locker room and adding to the motivational wall.
But the reason I am backing the Gophers is because of the BGSU defense. They rank 110th in the country in rush success defense. And they are 97th in havoc and 105th in line yards. The Falcons are decent at pass coverage, but the Gophers run the ball 60% of the time. So the key matchup will be the Minnesota’s run offense versus Bowling Green’s run defense.
Also factor in Minnesota is without their top two QB’s and Cole Kramer will make his first career start. But that just means a more concerted effort at dominating the line and handing the ball off to RB Darius Taylor, who is slated to be back after missing the last month. With the advantage they have in the trenches, I believe this to be the primary reason PJ Fleck’s team comes out victorious today. Add to that, the Gophers HC is 4-0 in bowl games and Minnesota has won six straight bowl’s overall.
Texas State is a great story as they’re appearing in the program’s first ever college football bowl game. They finished second in the Sun Belt West Division and ended the season with a 7-5 record. For the Bobcats, this is all about offense as the rank in the top 25 in both rushing and passing offense. But with that comes a bad defense, as they’ve allowed at least 20 points in every game this season including a game where they allowed 77 to South Alabama. QB TJ Finley, formerly of LSU and Auburn, has been the star for the Bobcats as he surpassed 3000 yards passing on the season.
For Rice, they will be without QB JT Daniels as he retired late in the season due to medical issues (concussion). But their freshman QB, AJ Padgett, was able to start the last three games of the season and lead them to a 2-1 finish. The Owls are a slower paced team but very efficient in the passing game, ranking 38th in the nation in pass offense. But their rushing offense in non-existent as they are 113th overall in that category.
In the end, the public is fully on the Owls and have lowered this spread from 5.5 to 3.5. I expect it to close around 3 so I’m going to wait to place this bet. But even at 3.5, I will be the Bobcats. This total is 60.5 meaning we will see points. And in a high scoring affair, the hook doesn’t worry me as much. Instead, I’m more focused on the motivation of a team that is making their first appearance. I’m also backing an offense that in multi-dimensional and did not lose anything in the portal. Motivation, talent, and cohesiveness are why I’m backing the fave here.
In the nightcap, we have a great college basketball matchup between UNLV and Kansas. All kidding aside, these two notorious basketball schools have made impressive gains in their football programs over the past few years. Kansas’s ascension is primarily mapped to their hiring of HC Lance Leipold. He has brought his winning style from Buffalo and turned the Jayhawks into a contender in the Big 12. They are making their second straight bowl game after not being in one for 14 years. As for UNLV, they have turned around a two-year stretch where they went 2-16 to make it to their first bowl game in 10 years. In fact, their 9 wins this season are their most since 1984.
Kansas will be without QB Jaylon Daniels but have a serviceable backup in Jason Bean. But the big news for Kansas is that RB Devin Neal will play in the game and will be the best player on the field tonight in Vegas. For UNLV, they lost several players on defense due to injury and transfers. And this is coming from a defense that allowed 44 points in the MWC championship game. But the reason I back UNLV is their high powered offense, led by QB Jordan Maiava, is mostly intact and should be able to stay close enough with Kansas to cover this big number. The Rebels were 2nd in the nation with 37 rushing TD’s.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
Dave is a lifelong enthusiast of fantasy sports, actively engaging in football, baseball, basketball, and golf. Hailing from the Philadelphia area, he holds a deep devotion to the Philadelphia Eagles, owning season tickets to support his beloved team. Embracing DFS in 2012, Dave has achieved notable success with several significant takedowns on DraftKings. He has developed a newfound passion for CFB DFS, going by the username @dgloeck.
In 2022, Dave became a valued member of the WinDaily team, contributing video and written content across the platform. Additionally, he shares his betting picks through WinDaily and Tallysite, boasting an impressive record of 42-19 for the MLB 2023 season. Recognized as the Bell Ringer, Dave also lends his voice to the WinDaily Show on Sirius radio, airing on Sundays. On Twitter (@dgloeck), he actively shares his content and passionate insights on a daily basis.
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