Sunday night brings us a matchup of two teams that seem to have no idea which way they are heading for this NFL DFS Showdown. If you are on Twitter for more than five seconds, Miami fans will tell you all the ways they should be 6-0. The NFL is “out to get them”. Pittsburgh fans have to just be happy to be coming off a win over Tom Brady and the Bucs. Despite their struggles, neither team is far off from playoff contention. Miami comes into this one as one of the bigger favorites in Week 7, currently sitting at -7.5 for this one. Let’s find some angles to smash this showdown slate!
DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.
Love him or hate him (he’s an easy person to dislike), Hill is one of the best in the game. Moving from Patrick Mahomes down to Tua or Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t affected him much at all. He struggled against the Bills, and the entire team struggled against the Jets. His other games?
The Steelers are allowing the MOST fantasy points to opposing WR this season, and that spells trouble on Sunday night. Tua is back, and I don’t need to sell you on Hill. I personally would be stunned if he isn’t the highest scoring non-QB in this game. Jaylen Waddle is less than 100% (more on him later), but Hill is in a dream spot against Pittsburgh here.
Tua is back and in a prime spot against a TJ Watt-less Pittsburgh defense. I’m fully expecting the Dolphins to dominate this one on the offensive end. I personally will be alternating some Tua/Hill stacks with one or the other in the bonus spot.
The Steelers are 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QB, and you’d think that Tua died and was resurrected with the amount of hype surrounding his return. Dolphins fans won’t want to hear this, but Tua was actually pretty average outside of the Baltimore game. His combined stats outside of that game are 44/65 for 566 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT.
That said, Pittsburgh simply isn’t pressuring the QB like they have in years past. They are averaging just two sacks per game, 21st in the NFL. We all know about Tua’s mobility. He should feast in this one.
Hear me out on this one. We will need some value to be able to fit both Tua and Hill in our lineups. Pickens is the ideal candidate. Kenny Pickett has been a game-changer…not for the Steelers (at least not yet), but for Pickens. After totaling just 5/65 over the first three weeks of the season, Pickens has broken out with Pickett under center.
Despite those tiny hands, Pickett has found a way to get his fellow rookie involved in a big way. Pickens has hauled in 15 of 20 targets over the last three games for 202 yards. The Dolphins haven’t fared much better than the Steelers against opposing WR, sitting at 25th in the NFL. I’m expecting the Steelers to be playing catch-up in this one. Pickens could be in store for a monster game.
The lack of passing-game usage the Steelers are giving their best (offensive) player is borderline criminal. Najee has a TOTAL of five targets in his last three games. He led the NFL with 74 catches last season with the ghost of Big Ben under center. Obviously he was the safety blanket for Roethlisberger, but he was efficient as well.
I’m not saying he will suddenly become the target magnet he was in 2021, but like I mentioned earlier, the Steelers are likely to be playing from behind. Get the ball out quick. Get it to your best playmakers and let them make plays. Najee is too cheap for the upside he has. Miami has been middle of the pack against the run, but volume is king. Harris is still averaging 15 touches per game over the last two weeks.
The black and gold (yes, the color is GOLD, not yellow, despite what that stupid song says) were abysmal against the run in 2021. While they have improved a bit, this is still a matchup that favors opposing RB. Mostert has separated himself as the lead back in the Dolphins offense, and has at least 15 touches in three straight weeks. He makes for a solid play. If the Dolphins take care of business the way they should, Mostert could get some extra work late as they look to slam the door.
Chase Claypool is always a threat to run up big numbers…I much prefer him to Diontae Johnson, who has seen elite volume and done absolutely nothing with it.
Chris Boswell is among the best kickers in the NFL, and the Steelers struggle to finish drives. Need I say more?
Jaylen Waddle is dealing with a shoulder injury, but looks to be trending in the right direction. Don’t overlook him if he suits up. I still prefer Hill, but Waddle has a similar floor/ceiling combination.
I’m not chasing the random big game by Mike Gesicki. Durham Smythe looks like he may be back for this one, and Big Mike has a floor of literal zero. Pass for me. I’d rather take a cheap shot at Smythe at $1,200 on DK. The TE I’m interested in here is Pat Freiermuth…he sat out last week but volume alone makes him a solid play here.
Kenny Pickett has shown an affinity for turning the ball over…pair that with the likelihood that Pittsburgh is playing from behind. You see where I’m headed? It’s DEFENSE TIME BABY! All aboard the Dolphins defense train. Let’s get ourselves another D/ST score on a showdown slate.
Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.
Good luck on Sunday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter @BigItaly42 if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!
Won the FanDuel, 11K MLB Pickoff Single Entry Tournament in May of 2019. Started playing MLB DFS a couple years ago and have found success as mainly a cash game player. After playing season-long fantasy for five years I decided to give DFS a shot and have never looked back. Grinding all year around with MLB, NBA and NFL.
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” Sure, we want to help you win that big DFS tournament. But we want you to have a greater enjoyment of Daily Fantasy Sports while you are doing it. Along the way, you also may learn some life lessons and gain some perspectives you may have never considered before.