The byes have arrived! Only 11 games on the Main Slate for Sunday…and one of our favorite teams to pick on is home on the couch, the Lions. Not only are we short on teams this week, but we are short on players! The injuries have already skyrocketed and we are not even halfway through the season. There are still a few bangers out there this week so don’t sweat it. One of them is a rematch of last season’s AFC Divisional Round, probably the best pound-for-pound playoff game in our generation…Bills/Chiefs. We definitely will want pieces of this game in our lineups (O/U 54), and our projection models will help us find the FFVPs. Remember we’re all in here to help, our team is here 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds. Let’s do this breakdown of Week 6!
New York will want to ride the wave of their one-two punch of running backs Breece Hall and Michael Carter in Green Bay. The duo combined for a total of 230 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns at home against Miami. As Zach Wilson is still getting familiar with his offense, look for New York to lean again on the run against a Packer run defense who have given up double-digit fantasy points to the position all season.
Aaron Rodgers must be pretty sour after flying over the pond to take an “L” from the Giants, especially after trying to be the hero at the end and failing on 4th down. He didn’t make the QB write-up this week but certainly can get there against this green Jets’ secondary on the road (6 PaTDs to elite QBs in 2 games). Rodgers plays his best football at home and with a chip on his shoulder, and he’s too cheap to pass on this week ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel).
After that beating Buffalo put on the Steelers last week you have to want to own Brady in this slate. Pittsburgh’s 30th DVOA to quarterbacks does not get any better for the GOAT this week and it gets even better. The Steelers will be without 3 of their starting corners and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Start your Bucs this weekend in the steel city. One more thing, rookie quarterbacks have a hard time keeping the football. Tampa’s defense is still one of the most intense in football and could rattle Pickett’s cage on Sunday.
Young Kenny Pickett hopefully will rest his arm before Sunday, he may have to throw 50 times. Najee Harris and the run game have been struggling this season due to its poor offensive line. Then there’s George Pickens…sign me up. He’s been Kenny’s go-to guy since he day one racking up 12 catches on 16 targets for 185 yards. Take a flyer on Georgie for a GPP, even more, ballsy to pair with his quarterback. If he can curb the interceptions, Pickett may be a fantasy viable with super low ownership.
Lamar has been best known for using his legs at quarterback, and he will get plenty of work out of them against a New York team that gets trampled in the running game. Baltimore also has Dobbins back one game removed from his Achilles injury of last season and has room to eat here as well. Tight end Mark Andrews is an auto-start, and if wide-out Rashod Bateman sits this one out again, Devin Duvernay can be a nice value.
The Giants have been skating by through the season on their tough defense and Saquon Barkley, putting up a 4-1 record. Quarterback Daniel Jones also has been using his feet since the receiving core has been a graveyard due to injury. Keep an eye out for the rookie Wandale Robinson, if he can get on the field at his salary ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) against the Ravens’ 30th-ranked opposing defense, he can see a ton of reps and blow it up on Sunday.
San Fran would’ve liked to sink their teeth into another offense in Atlanta, except 6 of their starters on defense did not make the flight to Atlanta. If you’re looking to pay up for a defense this week, the Niners are a trap this weekend, stay away! There is a bright side to this bit of info, Jimmy G may have to actually turn it up a notch if the Niners do let the game start to slip away. We all know how bad the Falcons D is across the board by now, so a stack with Deebo, Aiyuk, or Kittle may be very sneaky…
The Niner defense will be super short-handed getting off the plane in Atlanta (6 starters out), and the Falcons have been in every game to the end. Offensively they are a little short-handed themselves (Coradarrelle Patterson on IR, Kyle Pitts questionable and a non-factor). This leaves the fate in the hands of two rookies, Drake London to catch and Tyler Allgeier to run the ball for the Falcons. Leaning more toward London in his current situation, as the clear front-runner for target volume.
Burrow and Chase will be back home in the bayou this weekend, and believe me there will be fireworks. Shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore has already been ruled out, putting Bradley Roby on an island with Chase…uh oh. Tee Higgins is still bothered by an ankle and Hayden Hurst popped up with a groin injury late in the week, so pay attention to the reports. if they’re out we want a piece of Tyler Boyd. It will be a homecoming for Burrow and Chase in N’Orleans this Sunday, the writing is on the wall here folks.
On top of all the injuries on defense for the Saints, the offense is in pieces too. No Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry again, so it will be the Chris Olave show part two. If he can clear concussion protocols, Olave will be in line for a huge workload with quarterback Andy Dalton, who is filling in again for beat-up Jameis Winston. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to start the Cincinnati defense up in this spot too because of all the missing weaponry at receiver and quarterback. I know Kamara is there I know, but Cincinnati is 3rd in rushing DVOA so we really can’t focus on him this week.
Justin Jefferson is automatic here, you don’t need us to tell you that. And Cousins to get him the ball has an excellent mid-range salary that may interest some of us. If you could catch the Jets highlights run all over Miami last week, then you know where I’m headed. Dalvin Cook may steal the show and own the backfield since Alexander Mattison fell on the injury report. Facing a third-string quarterback in Miami, Cook may get extra carries to eat up the clock on a big lead in the second half.
No Tua again this week, 7th round rookie Skylar Thompson gets the start… but will he finish? He could be pulled after one or two series depending on his output. Coach McDaniel may have the option of putting in Teddy B if he is cleared for contact, to replace the rookie if he stinks it up. The water is just too muddy to pick up anybody in Miami this week because of the quarterback situation.
The Pats will want to run the ball while their quarterback heals up from a high ankle sprain. Looks like Damien Harris may sit out another game and if he does it’s Rhamondre time again. In Harris’ absence last week the sophomore back averaged over 6 yards per carry (161 RuYDS). The Browns rank at the very bottom (32nd in DVOA) in run defense, a running back’s wet dream. Damien Harris sits, and Stevenson is a full go.
Now Cleveland can’t stop the run, but they can run right back at you with ease. With one of the best run-blocking O-lines in the league, opposing teams know he’s coming, but have not yet figured out how to stop him. The leading rusher in the NFL (593 RuYDS), Nick Chubb, exploded this year. Even while splitting the backfield with Kareem Hunt, Chubb is a bad man who at any point of the game can break off into the open field for 6.
All aboard… teams playing the Colts, start-up that D. The Jags have owned Indy for quite some time, and shut them out in their first meeting this season. We love Christian Kirk this season, but he came up short last week against Houston. Supposedly was a pretty nasty and wet day, even James Robinson took a step back last week. Kirk should be back on track this week and with no Shaq Leonard, Lawrence can get the ball to his number-one target.
Indy has become a one-dimensional team due to running back Jonathon Taylor’s time off the field. Their O-line is banged up, and little Matty Ice has been taking a pounding. If he can get the ball out quick enough, maybe he can hook up again with rookie Alec Pierce. In the win at Denver, he saw 9 targets, catching 8 for 81 yards. Thanks to all the pressure focused on stud teammate Michael Pittman Jr., Pierce will continue to feed off the weaker coverage.
Vince McMahon’s XFL superstar PJ Walker gets the start on the road, maybe he can provide some kind of spark for Carolina. The Matt Rhule era has finally come to an end, can the Panthers defeat the reigning Super Bowl champs on the road? We could care less, yeah McCaffrey should still be fine but let’s wait and see what happens in Carolina. Fade’em. Start that Rams’ D instead.
No need to mention the elephant in the room, Kupp is awesome, yes get him in. The real breaking news is Cam Akers is getting some personal time off this week, here we go…now we’re talkin’! Darrell Henderson’s time in the driver’s seat without Akers in the back seat, lock it up for a discount RB 2. But don’t forget about Stafford here either. His stock has fallen significantly from hitting a brick wall, mainly because of a few tough matchups. If he can keep from turning the ball over, which he should against Carolina, he’s could be a GPP hero.
Kyler throwing into the horrific secondary of Seattle is sweet DFS music to my ears. The Cardinals need more wins under their belt, so Murray will lead the way. This will also be the last week before D Hop gets off suspension, so let’s enjoy Marquise Brown one more time before he gets fed less. But wait a sec, we have a free bee this week at running back, his name is Eno Benjamin. James Connor and backup Darrel Williams are both out, so Eno will own the backfield against one of the worst run defenses (30th in DVOA) in football.
Geno has made a name for himself again in the NFL, being the most accurate in the league (75% completion rating). He’s no slouch, and not afraid to sling it all over the field making D K Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both fantasy–friendly. On a sad note, the Seahawks lost running back Rashaad Penny for the year to a broken bone. Rookie top prospect Kenneth Walker III will take over as the lead back and will be a huge saving for your salary cap.
What’s better than a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional series? Nothing. Allen, we all know who he is by now, set him at QB and forget it. Pretty much every starter is in play for the Bills, even more so now the news broke that Kansas City will be down two starting corners, and will be replaced with rookies. I can hear the tables breaking in Buffalo now by the Mafia. Diggs, Davis, and McKenzie sound good ya think? Singletary is in play too, the Chiefs play way too much zone allowing a bunch of points to opposing backs.
Now if the Bills do come out guns blazing and take a lead, Mahomes and Kelce will not go down without a fight. Buffalo’s defense is a little better than last year, adding Von Miller and other pieces, so Mahomes may need to flee the pocket more often this time around. The Bills are still banged up in the secondary and safety, giving Mahomes and his receivers a little more breathing room. We never know really where Andy Reid is headed in each game, except Kelce who is the cornerstone of the offense. Picking one of these KC receivers is like a game of darts though, try one or two in a GPP.
Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 6. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport. It’s been so much fun so far this season fellas, LFG!
Capper Steve is our featured handicapper. He is a former professional poker player and highly successful DFS cash game competitor. His career highlights include winning 10 of 13 wagers during the 2018 NFL playoffs and correctly predicting and successfully wagering on the last three CFB National Champions. He is also very profitable in NBA and NHL wagering and is a dedicated MLB handicapper.
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” Sure, we want to help you win that big DFS tournament. But we want you to have a greater enjoyment of Daily Fantasy Sports while you are doing it. Along the way, you also may learn some life lessons and gain some perspectives you may have never considered before.