Another week of top plays in the books as we approach the end of the regular season in 2022. Using the future HOF Tom Brady allowed us a ton of flexibility to pay up for studs like Derrick Henry, crushing at both positions. Here in Week 16 of the NFL, we may be getting into a bit of pivoting due to some inclement weather across the country. Also, remember, our slate will be tomorrow instead because of the holiday. Speaking of which, Merry Christmas everybody! Let us all celebrate with a little extra pocket money by building some winning lineups. Remember to check in on our Discord to keep up to speed and gain feedback on your builds. Christmas Eve Main Slate Breakdown is in full effect, let’s do this!
Soldier Field’s temperature will be in single digits with 22 MPH winds making the stadium feel like -30 degrees. But the Bills are a cold-weather team and if it weren’t for the high projected winds, I’d be comfortable with most of their players. We’ll stick with Josh Allen. He could be a little risky in cash, but great I feel in a GPP because of his low ownership due to weather. We should see plenty of running and dump-off passes tomorrow as well from the Bills. Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary, and James Cook are all in play to draft for this cold day in Chicago.
Same here for the Bears, baby, it’s cold outside! The only game in town is Justin Fields, who pretty much runs as it is(1,000 RuYDS this season). Now with the weather and lack of weapons, we may just see Justin taking off at every opportunity. Montgomery and Kmet should also be in the mix, but way too risky in my opinion so keep them out of cash. I am interested in the Bears’ DST though…we could see Buffalo cough the ball up a few times in this insanely cold weather, creating a great paydown for defense
On the road in Foxboro to face a Bill Belichick team that was embarrassed in Las Vegas last week could spell trouble for some of these Bengals. The Patriots’ head coach will aim to eliminate their number one weapon…Ja’Marr Chase, which could lead to a decent performance from Tee Higgins. He’ll be under the radar at receiver, mainly because of the action moving toward Kansas City and Seattle for the slate. But Joe Burr fully weaponized is indeed a bad man regardless of whose defense he faces. Burrow having the big three in Chase, Higgins, and Mixon keeps him busy running the Bengals’ offense and climbing the fantasy charts.
He’s been questionable for weeks, but Rhamondre has carried the entire Patriots’ offense since Damien Harris went down in Week 12. The Pats will ride the hot hand of Stevenson who ran for 172 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders in Week 15, regardless of the status of Harris and the improving Cincinnati front line.
Another blistery cold scene this Saturday. Seattle is trying to keep their playoff hopes alive and will need to pull off a Christmas miracle in the Kingdom to do so. They’re 10-point dogs, scripted to be playing from behind and forcing Geno to air it out against a Chiefs’ pass-friendly 29th DVOA. No Tyler Lockett spells heavy volume for DK Metcalf, but also for tight end Noah Fant and receiver Marquise Goodwin. Kenneth Walker has been cleared to play but I would be careful spending up on a running back who hasn’t practiced all week from back and ankle injuries.
Mahomes, Kelce, and the Chiefs continue to rack up notches in the win column, but barely. Their defense has not been premium, allowing inferior opponents like the Texans and Broncos to stay in games until the end. We love it for DFS though, as Mahomes will keep the offense on the field for even more production. Seattle’s run defense will be the most targeted of the slate, ranking second worst in the league and driving DFS managers to use the likes of Isiah Pacheco and Jerick Mckinnon, who has put up over 34 DK points in back-to-back weeks.
We still may see some frigid temps even in the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Jared Goff has not been at his best outdoors, leaving us managers out in the cold for desiring any of Detroit’s roster. But Amon-Ra St. Brown is rock solid and Goff’s first line of attack in the open field. He’s seen 119 targets in just 13 games this season, facing a Panthers’ 23rd in DVOA to opposing receivers, we simply can’t fade him.
The Sam Darnold experiment in Carolina is somewhat gaining momentum, breathing life back into stud wideout DJ Moore. He cashed in for 176 receiving yards and two touchdowns in three games back with Darnold. Detroit spews fantasy production to opposing receivers (30th in DVOA). Even though it may be a little chilly tomorrow afternoon, Moore should feast in this matchup.
The G-Men escape the winter wonderland on the slate, and finally, get a friendlier opponent to score on. Quarterback Daniel Jones made the QB article this week and rightfully so. Minnesota’s secondary has looked like a dumpster fire of late, allowing QBs Jared Goff and Mike White to score close to 30 DK points this month. Jones and the Giants’ entire offense gets an upgrade here, especially on a slate full of bad-weather games.
Fresh off a record-breaking comeback win, the Vikings look to keep the fire going against New York. Not only did mainstreamers Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and Justin Jefferson crush, second-year wideout K J Osborn had a breakout game (10 REC/157 YDS/1 TD). The Giants’ defense has struggled lately, losing many starters to injury and allowing fantasy points to just about every offensive position (30th in rushing DVOA; 14th in receiving DVOA). In what looks to be another high-scoring bonanza, start up your Vikings.
The season can’t end any sooner for the one-win Texans, who are looking to be without Nico Collins and Dameon Pierce for a second straight game. however, Brandin Cooks may be on the mend and finally get to suit up after a three-game hiatus against Tennessee. The weather may also be a factor in Tennessee, but against this pass-funnel defense ( dead last in DVOA), and possibly being the only option at receiver for Houston, he is worth a second look in DFS.
It’s officially Malik Willis season in Tennessee, but that might not be a good thing. The rookie has been unwilling to throw the ball, passing for no more than 80 yards a game in three starts. Which could only mean more work for Derrick Henry, but may also lead to more stacked boxes. The matchup is written on the wall for Henry, Houston is dead-last against the run making him the play of the week at running back.
New Orleans will be without most of their offense when they land in Cleveland to face off against the Browns. Literally at receiver will be a practice squad for the Saints, as Olave will sit and Jarvis Landry placed on season-ending IR. So are we good with Kamara in a windchill of -30 in Cleveland? I’ll pass, not worth the risk for a guy who has been a dud all year. If you want a dark horse, how about Taysom Hill? Dalton won’t last without any receivers and 30 MPH winds…(Browns DST Hint Hint). The Saints may display a ton of their Swiss-Army knife of Hill on Saturday for his rushing, passing, and catching abilities.
The Browns’ new feature quarterback Deshawn Watson has looked mediocre, in decent weather, he’s barely come close to 20 fantasy points. Working from behind one of the best offensive lines in football, the Browns will lean on their bell cow, Nick Chubb. He’s been disappointing lately, but the Saints have given up over 250 yards on the ground in their last three games. Rub a dub with Chubb.
We got a decent dose of the Desmond Ridder experience last week, but it was more of a Tyler Algeier week after he rushed for 139 yards and a touchdown. Ridder showed the true colors of his inexperience, but there was chemistry with fellow rookie Drake London, who caught seven balls for 70 yards. The Falcons will see another tough matchup on the road in Baltimore out in the cold where it will be difficult to rush against their 6th-in DVOA run defense, and passing into the wind. play it safe and keep away from the dirty birds, or pay up for the Raven DST.
The only thing keeping the Ravens afloat in the playoff race has been their defense and J K Dobbins as of late. Besides losing last week to the Browns, opposing teams have been held under 15 points since Week 12. The real story for the Ravens’ success without Lamar Jackson has been hot off IR Dobbins, who has rushed for over 100 yards in both games, scoring one TD. He’ll see plenty of action against an Atlanta team that gives up 130 yards per game, for under $6K on DraftKings I’m all in on Dobbins. Let’s not forget about tight end Mark Andrews though. I know he’s been on a milk carton, but the man is just due a solid game. He finally will see a below-average defender (28th against tight ends) and has a ceiling that could break the slate for the position.
Washington caught a tough break from a few bad penalty calls in last week’s loss to the Giants. San Fransisco will not show them any sympathy on the road, as they could put the Commanders’ offense in a vise on Saturday (1st in DVOA for run defense). Running back Antonio Gibson saw a 60 % snap share while trailing New York as the pass-catching option in the backfield for Washington. Gibson may be involved in a similar role against a Niner team that has been scoring at will, forcing Washington to again play catch-up. He’ll be a treat as a low-priced flex option at $5,300 on DraftKings.
This may be the week we see Brandon Aiyuk finally hit it off with Purdy. The Commanders should stay in their Cover 1 formation, where Aiyuk torched them back in 2020 for 10 receptions on 16 targets for 119 yards. In a game unaffected by the bad weather across the country, lightning may strike twice with Aiyuk facing Washington’s beatable corners of St.-Juste and Fuller.
The Eagles are in Dallas and will be without the front-runner for MVP, Jalen Hurts, who suffered a shoulder injury against Chicago in Week 15. But backup Gardner Minshew is no stranger to the football field, leading the Jaguars to seven wins from 2019-2020. Hands down he is probably the best second-string QB out there and built great chemistry with tight end Dallas Goedert, hooking up for two touchdowns in Week 13 of last season. Philadelphia is at full strength offensively now with Goedert back from IR but will be a different team without Hurts‘ running threat, in turn giving more volume to Miles Sanders.
The Philly corners Bradberry and Slay have been two book ends in the secondary, crushing every receiver in sight. Dallas will need to move the ball with CeeDee Lamb on the inside to line up across slot corner Avonte Maddox, giving him a huge mismatch in height and speed. The other approach for the Cowboys will be to run the rock with Pollard right up the gut. Screens, outlets, and toss passes will be on the menu for the new sheriff in the Dallas’ backfield.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 16. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.
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