If you didn’t make the playoffs in your season long, then welcome to DFS if you are just joining us! Week 14 we crushed, what else is new? Russell Wilson blew up your lineup can you believe it? He was in our cash game breakdown along with Jerry Jeudy catching three touchdowns. Time to break down Week 15 and get back into the money once again. Remember to check in on our discord for all news and questions to help you get ready for Sunday’s ten-game slate. This article is here to help you decide on a strategy for who to pick up in DFS from each game of the slate, so let’s do this!
The number one MVP candidate Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles should continue their onslaught of the NFL in Chicago. The Bears have been unable to stop anybody from scoring points let alone the best team in the NFL. It will be an air raid, forming a big lead by halftime and then running it down Chicago’s throat in the second half. Start up as many Eagles as possible, the more the merrier.
Justin Fields has been cleared to play, but is it worth putting him out there against one of the top defenses in the league? If he can pay off his salary, it would have to be with his legs, but that’s a very risky move this week (2nd in DVOA to quarterbacks). Chicago’s top receiver Darnell Mooney went down with a season-ending injury before their bye week, leaving Cole Kmet as the only game in town. But to be safe, stay away from the Bears and start the Philly defense, which could have less than 10% ownership.
Dallas has been leaning on their run game with their one-two-punch of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, keeping them in the playoff picture. The success of the game plan in retrospect has driven down the volume and DFS salary of quarterback Dak Prescott. Although I do like both running backs along with Cee Dee Lamb and Schultz, Dak is just way too cheap to pass up on, especially against Jacksonville (26th DVOA to quarterbacks)
There are going to be some points to be put up on the scoreboard in this game, and with the Jaguars most likely playing from behind, Trevor Lawrence should be busy. The Cowboys love the blitz, so he’ll need to get the ball out quickly, and what better receiver than Christian Kirk? As he approaches 1000 yards with seven touchdowns on the season, Kirk will lineup in the slot and use his great separation ability to move the chains.
Kansas City rolls into Houston as heavy favorites, so there’s always the factor of a very safe but pricey Patrick Mahones and Travis Kelce may sit out in the second half. This brings rookie running back Isaiah Pacheco back into the conversation. He’ll be a safe investment facing the Texans’ 32nd in DVOA run defense in a positive game script. Don’t fall for the trap of Jerick McKinnon, this game will be dominated, and his third-down capabilities will not be needed in this one. check out that Chiefs DST too. Houston has been playing quarterback musical chairs lately, which could spell out some turnovers.
The 2023 drive can’t get here any sooner for Houston. As we watch Lovie Smith play around with quarterbacks in tight ends who knows what will see out there? One thing for sure is Chris Moore. Receiver Nico Collins was ruled out and Brandin Cooks has been asking for a trade, possibly faking his injuries all season. Making for the second week in a row, Chris Moore is the top option again in Houston, against a pass-friendly defense in Kansas City (32nd DVOA to receivers).
Jared Goff on the road has not looked good this season. And against the stingy Jets’ defense, I’d be a little weary of taking any Detroit players this weekend. The weather looks to be cold and wet in New Jersey, but with news breaking that Mike White will sit and Zach Wilson is back under center, give me that Lions DST all day.
Say it ain’t so Coach Salah! Mike White’s ribs will sit him down forcing second-year quarterback Zach Wilson back into the mix. This crushes, the dreams of having Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore in so many lineups this weekend, leaving The only safe play as running back Bam Knight. But don’t forget Jared Goff is in town to play in the elements, take a shot with the Jets DST baby!
Oh boy, this could get ugly. Kenny Pickett is doubtful, which could lead to a quarterback timeshare of the biscuit Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph. Even if Pittsburgh chooses to run the ball hard with Najee, he’s been banged up all season. Give me some of that Carolina DST.
The Sam Darnold experience hasn’t been too bad, as they make a run at the NFC south division. The top pass catch and stud DJ Moore was shaken up by a knee sprain, which may lead to Terrace Marshall getting a few extra looks. For $3,500 on DraftKings, he’s worth a gander.
It’s officially Desmond Ridder season. So we shall wait and see, where we may have a nice connection with fellow rookie Drake London. But they would be very risky in DFS this weekend, take a shot in a GPP if you’re feeling lucky. rookies do make rookie mistakes so the Saints’ DST would be a nice play here.
Well, the Big Easy will be rolling with Andy Dalton again at quarterback. Let’s not even go there, Alvin Kamara will own the entire backfield now that Mark Ingram is done for the season, and at $6,800 on DraftKings, I’m all in. New Orleans’ punt-tight end of the year could be back on the field as well, go grab Juwan Johnson if he’s available.
Mac Jones and the Patriots will try to lock up the seventh seed in the AFC in Sin City, a game with some potential for fireworks. But they’ve been hit badly by injuries to the running back and receiver positions. Lucky for them to be playing the Raiders, who cannot even defend against AARP members (27th DVOA to quarterbacks) these days. Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Ty Thornton may hit a ton of value at receiver, and Damien Harris (if healthy) at running back would take over for the injured Rhamondre Stevenson. Otherwise, go in deep for Pierre Strong or Kevin Harris for a Milli-Maker shot!
If the Raiders do somehow manage to make it into the playoffs, it will be on the shoulders of Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. The window is getting smaller and smaller, so it may be more on Adams this week because of the tough run defense of the Patriots. Adams is a lock all around DFS, especially since Derek Carr put on his blinders, solely looking for him to get open all year.
So who will be throwing the ball and calling plays in Arizona this weekend? We all saw Kyler Murray go down Monday night and now backup Colt McCoy is banged up. Hopkins is safe with McCoy, but who knows if McSorley can keep the Cardinals’ number-one receiver fed. The only reliable play in Arizona would be James Conner, who would be in line for a ton of work due to the shakiness at quarterback.
With a low-point total, a shaky backup, and a possible third-string quarterback, the Bronco defense is a must–start. Denver has issues at quarterback too with Russell Wilson, who may not play. Enter backup Brett Rypien, who has a huge man crush on tight ends(8 targets). He will be all over Dulcich if he gets the call, otherwise, we pivot to Jeudy again if Russell plays.
The Bucs’ secondary will be a hot mess on Sunday, especially now without cornerback Jamel Dean. Fellow corner Sean Murphy–Bunting along with safeties Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards may also miss Week 15, making it open season for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Great news for Joe Burrow, and even Joe Mixon now that Tampa will also be without defensive tackle Veta Veya. Stack up on the Bengals for a possible slate-breaker!
If Tampa looks to lock up the NFC South and keep their playoff hopes alive, they’ll need to start making some plays. They can, and Brady is due for a monster game. What he lacks with his legs he can make up for with his passing attempts, and for $5,500 on DraftKings, I would take a shot. He’s your pay-down quarterback of the week, with both All-Pro receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in line for the usual heavy workload.
If we’re looking to pay up this week at running back, look no further than Derrick Henry. The Chargers have struggled all season defending the run (28th in DVOA), allowing close to 150 RuYDS/game. Henry could hit that mark by halftime at Sofy Stadium. He won’t run every down though, so when Tannehill looks to throw it downfield, his new shiny toy Chig Okonkwo will be there on the receiving end. Both are safe, but chalky plays in Tennessee.
Tennessee defends against the pass as well as the Chargers against the run…terribly. The Titans have been a pass-funnel defense at second to last in DVOA on the year, putting Justin Herbert and his receivers in the driver’s seat. Give me a stack of powder blue jerseys in my lineups this weekend and I could sleep like a baby. Allen, Ekeler, and Williams can roll out in any game style, but Gerald Everett would be sneaky.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 15. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.
Capper Steve is our featured handicapper. He is a former professional poker player and highly successful DFS cash game competitor. His career highlights include winning 10 of 13 wagers during the 2018 NFL playoffs and correctly predicting and successfully wagering on the last three CFB National Champions. He is also very profitable in NBA and NHL wagering and is a dedicated MLB handicapper.
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