Ten games to examine in Week 10 of the NFL Sunday Slate, we are already into double-digit weeks into the season! Time flies when you are setting lineups and cashing in DFS. This week is pretty cut and dry, with four teams on bye and the league loaded with injuries we can come to a conclusion on where we want to attack in DFS. Always take advantage of the projection model to give you that extra edge on the competition, and tag me @jdicarlo78 or any of our staff on our Discord for any help on who to get in your lineups up until lock. Let’s get it on!
Miami has been an opponent’s worst nightmare to defend, and if they run up the score on Sunday, Jacoby Brissett will be throwing more often than handing the ball off to Nick Chubb. As well as the Dolphins can put up points, they bleed them out just as fast. Miami has given up 59 points in their last two games providing fantasy value at every position. We can target the Browns’ receivers (Cooper and DPJ), Chubb, and even Kareem Hunt if you really want to be dirty. If you want to be a contrarian, Jacoby Brissett at his price tag ($5,400 DraftKings/$) would save you some dough in a tournament.
Welcome to Miami…and the Dolphins plan on showing the Browns around town in circles this weekend. With Tua being the highest-rated quarterback (115.9) and Tyreek Hill leading the league in receiving yards (1,104), not one team has had any answers to defend them. The Browns still struggle against the run and are 29th in DVOA. Newly acquired Jeff Wilson Jr. has fit right into this 49er-style rushing attack and at ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) he could provide some cap relief.
The Texans’ offense has been heavy doses of rookie running back Dameon Pierce, primarily due to their lack of a competent quarterback. Pierce, who’s been averaging 22 touches over his last three games, is the only show in town for Houston thus far, but if Nico Collins can get back out there at wideout in New York this week I can see taking a flier on him at a measly ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel)
Fresh off a bye and a tough loss on the road in Seattle in Week 8, the Giants fall into a nice bounce-back situation at home against the Texans. New head coach Brian Daboll will ride the hot hand and continue forcing stud bell-cow Saquon Barkley down opposing defenses’ throats. You’ll pay a hefty price for him at ($8,900 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) but it will be well worth facing a Texan run defense who could not stop a runny nose (dead last at 32nd DVOA). Don’t let Barkley’s salary scare you away, Tennessee’s Derrick Henry was at ($8,400 DraftKings) when he crushed it with 38 DK points.
On the road coming into Arrowhead as double-digit dogs, the Jaguars will need to put it in 5th gear at kickoff. The Lawrence and Kirk combo is in full effect for this game, and a sprinkle of Etienne would not be a bad idea either. If Jacksonville were to fall behind by a large lead, or perhaps they do come out swinging, it would be this trio of Jaguars to move the football. The Chiefs’ zone defense allows heavy rushing (25th in DVOA) and passing (25th in DVOA) allowing opponents to move the chains on a game-to-game basis, relying more on Mahomes and the offense to pull off wins
I’ll skip the Mahomes and Kelce hype, we all know they are locks. The big news out of Kansas City on Friday was the downgrade of running back Jerrick Mckinnon (62% snap share in Week 9) and the ruling out of receiver Mecole Hardman (54% snap share in Week 9). This opens up so many doors in Kansas City for value plays this weekend. Isiah Pacheco and Kadarius Toney could make great GPP possibilities on Sunday. This news also ramps up more opportunities for starters MVS and Ju Ju.
Bronco Country… Let’s not F this one up. Five starters on the Titans’ defense have already been ruled out including Bud Dupree. Russel Wilson (holding my breath as I type this) should light up this Tennessee secondary without breaking a sweat. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton have fallen way down in pricing because of this dumpster fire of an offense, let’s hope and pray we can use all three this week and hit. Tight end rookie Greg Dulcich continues to crush his salary and will be the chalk at his position for the slate. Lastly, Tennessee has no quarterback! Malik Willis in two games has not thrown for 64 yards and Ryan Tannehill is still banged up, start-up that Bronco D!
They were a train wreck to watch in Primetime of Week 9, I thought I would never say that I’m looking forward to Ryan Tannehill getting back under center for the Titans. With or without him, Tennessee will continue to feed the beast of Derrick Henry into a Denver front seven that has been smoked by the likes of Travis Etienne (156 rushing yards last week) and Josh Jacobs (144 rushing yards in Week 4).
We’re gonna fade on the offensive pieces of Minnesota this week guys, just too pricy against a Buffalo defense that will need to pick up the slack for their injured quarterback Josh Allen, who may not play. On that note, that Minnesota defense at ($2,200 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) is looking very tasty facing a less than 100% Josh Allen, Case Keenum, or Matt Barkley commanding the offense on what may be a chilly and soggy afternoon in Buffalo.
I’m sure everybody has heard the news about star quarterback Josh Allen’s elbow, and it doesn’t look good for Week 10. Beware of using any of the Bills this weekend since we really have no idea what the coaching staff plans on doing. I’ve mentioned in my quarterback Week 10 article of using Case Keenum as a flier, but now today I have heard some buzz about the possibility of seeing third-stringer Matt Barkley. Let’s watch and see what happens this weekend fellas and go from there next weekend.
Will we see the road Jared Goff in Chicago? I sure hope not. Amon-Ra St. Brown with his 30% target share is the only game in town for the Lions against this tapped-out Bears’ defense. The Hock is gone, Josh Reynolds is out, Swift still getting eased back in, and two rookie tight ends. Can we get another 40 burger like in Week 2 for Amon, Jared? Asking for a friend.
The chalkiest play at quarterback will absolutely be Justin Fields this week after he scorched Miami for 45 DK points in a Week 9 shoot-out. I get it, totally way too cheap and a nice plug-in for cash, but what if the Lions do not put up enough of a fight? Let’s think outside the box. Running back David Montgomery still owns 70% of the snaps, if Fields doesn’t have to scramble, then he benefits as well as Chase Claypool on the outside. Coach Eberflus has spoken publicly about bringing more work toward Claypool this coming week. Let’s get in on the action while he is dirt cheap ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel).
Looks like the Saints will be a little healthier as veteran receiver Jarvis Landry will finally be back in the lineup. This should create some space between defenders for the rookie phenom Chris Olave. Pittsburgh will be getting DPOY linebacker TJ Watt back as well, so the Saints better have Dalton get rid of that ball quickly and accurately, or else.
The Chase Claypool move to Chicago left a huge opportunity for receptions in the Steel City. Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Friermuth should be seeing a nice uptick in usage. The Saints’ dead-last receiver DVOA that is still without Marshon Lattimore should give a huge boost in fantasy value. We may see Kenny Pickett break 20 fantasy points against this hot mess of a defense, take a flier stack on some Steelers this week.
New head coach Jeff Saturday, a former offensive lineman in Indianapolis, has no coaching experience. What would you do if you were in his shoes? Right, give the ball to your best playmaker Jonathon Taylor. Deon Jackson is out, and Phillip Lindsay was sent packing, He’s the last man standing and has gotten plenty of practice this week. His price has plunged into the $7K range on DraftKings, which makes him a great under-the-radar move in DFS.
Vegas has placed tight end Darren Waller and receiver Hunter Renfrow on IR this week. Davante Adams will absolutely benefit from this dilemma, but so will the 6’4″ Mack Hollins. Carr has favored him all season, and the last time he was in this situation he exploded for 30 plus DK points. Enjoy a free bee and pick up the Mack daddy
The Cowboys have not had much luck in Lambeau Field over the recent years, possibly due to not being used to the local weather. I’m hesitant to spend too much salary here in Dallas, but tight end Dalton Schultz is way too cheap. He’s only $3,800 on DraftKings and facing a bottom-tier DVOA to tight ends (21st) sign me up.
The Packers may soon be packing it in this year. Rodgers‘ frustration may have a loss of loyalty with some of his teammates. He at some point will have to start trusting his teammates and with his receiving core decimated by injury, it’s time. Rookie Christian Watson is well worth his price tag to be the guy this week to step up. Take a shot for $3,700 on DraftKings.
Kyler Murray popped up on the injury report this week with a hamstring issue. If he does suit up, be careful. History shows that a less than 100% Kyler refused to run in previous seasons, if you’re looking for the rushing upside it may not be here this week. The Cardinals’ defense may be worthy. Matt Stafford is still in concussion protocols, setting up second-string quarterback John Wolford to start behind a swiss cheese O-line.
I never thought I would see the week to fade Cooper Kupp, but it has arrived. Too expensive to trust in the hands of John Wolford. A limping Kyler Murray or another backup quarterback scenario in Arizona would tempt me to also use the Rams DST. Aaron Donald chasing McSorely around SoFi Stadium could light up your DST slot this weekend.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 10. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.
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