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NFL DFS Week 10: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

First off, Happy Veteran’s Day to all who served and their families. Please know that myself and everyone at Win Daily are incredibly grateful for your service, as you all have paved the way that we live today. To be able to sit here and write NFL DFS articles on a weekly basis, it’s incredible and we wouldn’t be here without you. Thank you for allowing us to live the safe lives we live today! You are all the true heroes!

A bit of a mixed bag for Week 9 NFL DFS lineups across the board. Unfortunately, I was a full-fade on Joe Mixon and that’s just the way it goes sometimes. I hope everyone enjoyed the slate breakdown cheat-sheet I provided in Discord. Hopefully that helps your weekly process! Let’s move on to a sexy Week 10 NFL DFS slate. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

*Please note that just because a player is listed as a cash game option, DOES NOT mean they’re not in play for NFL DFS GPP lineups. I love to get a mixture of both in my GPP builds.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

  • Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD) It is Patrick Mahomes, in a fantastic matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s the only quarterback on the slate with a passing prop close to 300-yards and if Josh Allen is limited our OUT, he’s the only QB (other than maybe Tua Tagovailoa) who we expect to throw for 2+ touchdowns on a weekly basis. Don’t overthink this slate. Mahomes is perfect for both cash and GPP lineups in Week 10.

    Stack Options: Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
    Run-Back Options: Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram
  • Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700 DK / $8,100 FD) – Tua and the Miami Dolphins are on absolute fire right now and the matchup at home against the Cleveland Browns projects to be a shootout with the total currently sitting at 49.5 points (second highest on the slate behind JAX @ KC). The Browns secondary is back to full health, but it’s almost impossible to keep Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in-check. Tua is fine for cash game builds, but with the potential that the Browns run the ball as much as possible to keep the ball out of Miami’s hands, the safest route is through NFL DFS GPP lineups.

    Stack Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
    Run-Back Options: Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Donovan Peoples-Jones
  • Justin Fields ($6,300 DK / $8,300 FD) – DraftKings refuses to raise his price to an appropriate tier based on his current fantasy outputs and the clear high-floor with his legs. Fields is on a heater right now and is an excellent cash game play against this horrific Detroit Lions’ defense. Having said that, I do think a case can be made to fade Justin Fields.

    I look at it this way: his ownership has never been higher, his price has never been higher, he takes more hits than any other quarterback on the slate, and he’s done his damage in up-tempo games where the Bears are playing from behind! Those games were against Dak Prescott and a healthy Dallas Cowboys team (outside of Elliott, but we know how lethal Pollard is/was) and last week against Tua and the Dolphins, where they were scoring at-will. Do you really think Jared Goff and the Lions on the road push Fields into a ceiling NFL DFS game? Maybe you do, or maybe you don’t care because he’s cheap and a play away from going 60-yards to the house. That is 100% fine, run him out there!

    I personally, will likely be fading Fields for the above reasons and the fact that I simply trust my builds with Tua or Mahomes more at their ownership. I always fade Goff on the road and will pray that the gamescript goes more in favor of both teams heavily utilizing their running backs as both of these run defenses (and pass defense too, don’t get me wrong) absolutely suck.

    Stack Options: Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Cole Kmet
    Run-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown

    Honorable Mention (GPP only): Russell Wilson, Kenny Pickett

NFL DFS Running Backs (Cash and GPP)

  • Saquon Barkley ($8,600 DK / $9,500 FD) – Saquon against the Texans… it’s a smash spot but you’re paying the premium price-tag. He’s a fantastic play in all formats. Like Mahomes, no need to overthink things. I’ll do everything I can to get Barkley into my cash game lineup.
  • Derrick Henry ($8,300 DK / $9,400 FD) – It looks like there will be heavy ownership on Derrick Henry this week against the Broncos’ defense (they’re extremely solid, but they’re a run-funnel and it’s Derrick Henry). I probably will not get there in cash games, but he’s a great play in all formats as you all know.
  • Travis Etienne ($7,100 DK / $8,000 FD) – The price is rising for Etienne on a weekly basis and for good reason, he’s on fire. The usage rate is atop the AETY Model projections for the Week 10 NFL DFS slate and he’s likely to find himself in a bit more of a passing-game role as the Jaguars are almost a 10-point dog to Kansas City. The Chiefs allow the most receptions per game to opposing running backs. Etienne is perfect for both GPP and cash game lineups.
  • Tony Pollard ($6,500 DK / $7,000 FD) – Lock button if Ezekiel Elliott is OUT for cash and definitely a significant interest in GPP.
  • Dameon Pierce ($6,300 DK / $7,700 FD) – Way too affordable on DraftKings and the ownership projections seem to say the public agrees. Pierce is the “free-square” running back this week in NFL DFS cash games and is still a value piece (at high-ownership) in GPP lineups against the Giants’ 24th ranked run defense (DVOA). He’s a full-go in all formats this weekend.

    Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs, James Conner, Jamaal Williams

GPP Only:

  • Jonathan Taylor ($7,500 DK / $7,000 FD) – Likely only a play for me on FanDuel, but Deon Jackson is OUT, Phil Lindsay was cut, and Zack Moss likely won’t have a significant role in any aspect of the game. The concern here is: what the hell do the Colts do on offense? I’ll roll the dice that new coach Jeff Saturday leans on Jonathan Taylor for 25+ touches on Sunday against a very beatable Raiders’ defense.
  • David Montgomery ($6,000 DK / $6,700 FD) – Pure leverage off of the Bears’ passing game chalk. Detroit’s run defense is terrible.
  • Kareem Hunt ($5,300 DK / $5,800 FD) – I don’t believe I’ve wrote his name down in any format throughout the 2022 season, but here we are. There’s no cheap-value at the running back position this week so Kareem Hunt will be getting the nod for me in some NFL DFS GPP lineups. At sub-3% ownership, Hunt grabs my attention as he’s got the highest AETY Model projection he’s had for me all season long. With no Njoku, the model seems to think Kareem Hunt will get an uptick in receiving work (in addition to his limited, yet notable rushing role) against the Dolphins’ defense that grades 28th in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs. This game is likely going to be a fantasy football festival on both sides and Hunt offers me some extremely cheap exposure to it.

NFL DFS Wide Receivers (Cash and GPP)

  • Tyreek Hill ($9,100 DK / $9,000 FD)
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900 DK / $6,900 FD) – St. Brown is one of the only healthy wide receivers for the Detroit Lions and the expected target-share is over 30% this week against the Bears’ Cover-2 and Cover-3 defense. Kyler Gordon is going to have his hands full trying to handle Amon-Ra St. Brown for four quarters on Sunday. St. Brown is a fantastic option in all formats.
  • Amari Cooper ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Amari Cooper is surprisingly one of the AETY Model favorites this week against a brutal Miami secondary (Xavien Howard has been trash this season and may miss this game anyways). Amari’s red-zone usage is elite and his expected target share got a significant boost in the AETY Model with Njoku being ruled out and Miami running a ton of man coverage with some Cover-3 mixed in there as well (coverages Brissett heavily targets Cooper in). He’s simply too cheap for a high-upside WR1 in an excellent game environment. Feel confident in rolling out Cooper in all formats.

    Donovan Peoples-Jones is a fine value as well for cash or GPP.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – Mahomes’ top wide receiver outside of the obvious, Travis Kelce. JuJu has been on a tear lately and the target share at the wide receiver position in Kansas City is extremely volatile outside of JuJu. He’s likely just a GPP play for me this week.
  • Christian Kirk ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – Christian Kirk is finally back to his early season fantasy ways and makes for an excellent, affordable piece to this expected shootout. The Jaguars will no doubt be playing from behind and that should bode well for Jacksonville’s top target. I prefer Kirk in NFL DFS GPP lineups, but ownership projections warrant considering Kirk in cash games as well. I personally do not love the matchup against L’Jarius Sneed. On the outside, Zay Jones is also a nice piece of this positive passing gamescript we’ll likely see from Jacksonville.
  • Diontae Johnson ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD) – It looks like Diontae Johnson is going to be the highest owned wide receiver on this slate which makes him an excellent NFL DFS cash game option. Marshon Lattimore will again sit out with injury this week and the Saints’ run the most man coverage in the NFL… advantage Diontae. Do not forget about George Pickens as well for a bit of a discount in all formats!
  • Jerry Jeudy ($5,700 DK / $6,400 FD) & Courtland Sutton ($5,600 DK / $6,200 FD) – It’s disgusting, but I low-key love this matchup for Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ wide receivers against a pass-funnel Titans’ defense. The ownership projections are currently in Courtland Sutton’s favor, I prefer Jerry Jeudy by a nose. Sutton does get the significant matchup upgrade against the Titans’ Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense. Jeudy should excel against their man coverage looks. I’m FINE using either one of them in all formats.

    Honorable Mention: CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Darnell Mooney, George Pickens, Zay Jones, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Mack Hollins

GPP Only:

  • Chase Claypool ($4,800 DK / $5,800 FD) – If you like this game, Chase Claypool is the deadliest fantasy weapon on the field at all times now that he’s moved outside in the Bears’ offense. The snap share will certainly tick-up significantly from last week and there’s not a corner in the division that can truly body him up. If this game shoots-out, Claypool should be a big part of that.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,100 DK / $5,400 FD) – Way too cheap for exposure to 80% of the Kansas City offensive snaps. With Mecole Hardman out (that breaks my heart), MVS should be in a great spot here and finally have a bit of a role in the red-zone offense (or it’s simply all Kelce and JuJu). He’s the #1 AETY Model value at the wide receiver position this week.
  • Christian Watson ($3,700 DK / $5,400 FD) – Here we go… the 0% owned call of the week (more of a prayer, lol). With Romeo Doubs OUT, the AETY Model is extremely high on the Packers’ most talented rookie, Christian Watson. Watson is an absolute freak of a talent and finally enters a game healthy and on paper, the WR2 of this Packers’ offense. I trust that LaFleur will finally get Watson heavily involved in the game-plan (they kind of have to do something different, don’t they?) and get him a jet-sweep or two while they’re at it. Watson moves all over the formation and if we get a week where he gets 60% or more of the offensive snaps, production will come… And it will come in bunches.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

  • Travis Kelce ($7,800 DK / $8,500 FD) – The best tight-end on this slate by a mile. Lock him in for all formats of NFL DFS lineups if you can afford it!
  • Dalton Schultz ($3,800 DK / $5,500 FD) – Great price in all formats. I value him as a low-end WR2 who happens to get Tight-End eligibility.
  • Greg Dulcich ($3,400 DK / $5,900 FD) – Dulcich will be the chalk tight-end in NFL DFS cash games in Week 10. I’m OK if you run with the pack and take the chalk spot there, but I am a 100% fade in GPP lineups. I’m just not playing a punt, chalk tight-end in GPP lineups when Kelce is on the slate.
  • Evan Engram ($3,300 DK / $4,900 FD) – Cheap exposure to the Jacksonville passing game. Engram gets a nice boost in expected target share against the Chiefs’ heavy usage of Cover-2 zone defense.

    Honorable Mention: Pat Freiermuth, Juwan Johnson

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

  • Kansas City Chiefs
  • Denver Broncos
  • Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Minnesota Vikings

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

  • Tony Pollard (if Elliott is out)
  • Dameon Pierce
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • Justin Fields
  • Travis Kelce

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