For those who may not know, today is the Trade Deadline so this article will be a little bit different. We’ll be discussing more of an outline and then I’ll update it after the deadline as needed. Some of the biggest dominoes have already fallen but that doesn’t mean there won’t be deals in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 2/10!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
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Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards, Miami Heat, Toronto Raptors, Houston Rockets – Those are the teams that have been consistently reported but teams like the Bucks, Warriors, and Mavericks are certainly capable of making a move.
Raptors – While Toronto has been in the rumor mill, it would be a big use if they moved anyone out of the starting rotation and that’s where our interest lies. The main two targets are the same as always in Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet and these guys just don’t leave the court. They’re both over 37. minutes per night, Siakam is playing lights out, and FVV is going to thrive in an elite environment. Both players are over 1.10 FPPM on the season and they are the only two players with a usage rate over 24% on the team. With the salaries of OG Anunoby, Gary Trent, and Scottie Barnes, I’d prefer to stick to the top two since FVV is under $9,000. The line has opened at just 6.5 points in favor of the Raptors so the blowout risk isn’t something Vegas is worried about and the Rockets continue to be first in pace and last in defensive rating.
Update – FVV is out tonight and Siakam is a primary target in cash games. It is interesting to note that his usage and FPPM really stay stagnant but Gary Trent Jr. jumps 7.3% in his usage rate and 0.20 in FPPM. If you fade Siakam in GPP to jam in two $10,000+ players, Trent Jr. is very appealing.
Rockets – I really like this spot for Christian Wood and the salary is certainly right at just $8,000 so there is a big ceiling attached to that price. I would expect Alperen Sengun to not start tonight given the Raptors penchant for playing smaller lineups and Kevin Porter Jr. will have plenty of chances to shoot against the zone defense as well. Both teams allow a 3-point frequency of over 40% on the year and we’ll reevaluate after Houston makes their moves.
Nets – We’re not going to talk much about them because the expectation is the James Harden trade happens today and the secondary players are in flux. The player that is sure to be there is Kyrie Irving and he’s on the board to be sure, though I do prefer guys like Siakam and we have the big studs at the high-end tonight that are more appealing.
Wizards – With the news that Bradley Beal is done for the season, I’m not sure there is any player that is safe on this roster so I’m extremely interested because the Nets have been getting hammered lately, we do need to know who’s active. I’m betting Kyle Kuzma is still there but past that we’re not sure yet.
Update – The vast majority of ownership has flocked to Washington tonight and that’s not a surprise. They traded Spencer Dinwiddie, Montrezl Harrell, and Aaron Holiday before the deadline so the rotation is very thin. We saw last night the Hornets were massive chalk in cash games and that’s going to be the same case tonight for Washington. Raul Neto, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Thomas Bryant, and Deni Avdjia are all extremely popular and that allows you to fit multiple studs.
It’s almost a guarantee that we’re going to have value on this slate so it’s basically a lock we can afford one of Giannis Antetokounmpo or Luka Doncic tonight. On the Doncic side, we get the primary ball-handler against the Clippers, and Luka has been on a tear lately. Since Kristaps Porzingis has been out, Luka has only dipped below 65 DK points once and that came in a game where he played just 28 minutes and put up 53. However, Giannis reminded everyone just exactly where his ceiling is too in the last game and the rematch against the Suns is one that he can torment Phoenix. When Giannis gets his full minutes, he’s about as dominant as they come, and even when everyone is healthy, he has 1.72 FPPM and a 35% usage rate. That’s virtually identical to Luka’s 1.71 without KP so for now, I’m going to side with Giannis in the game with the closer spread of 3.5 points.
Update – Luka is the cash pick tonight as he is around 30% but Giannis is under 20%. It is not inconceivable to play both and three Wizards, which is a path I’m interested in exploring in GPP. Overall, the cash build is Wizards value and Luka with Siakam and the GPP build for me is both Luka and Giannis with no more than three Wizards.
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