It was a shocking first week as the Champion’s League returned but what will MatchWeek Two have in store? Unlike last week, we do not have many large favorites on the slate.
The largest money line favorite is Porto at -255 followed by a very shaky-looking Liverpool side at -195.
Without further adieu, we will dig into the odds, cover the top DFS plays position-by-position and provide betting analysis.
Atletico Madrid (+145) at Bayer Leverkusen (+195)
Barcelona (+285) at Bayern Munich (-130)
Club Brugge (+700) at FC Porto (-255)
Ajax (+450) at Liverpool (-195)
Eintracht Frankfurt (+275) at Marseille (+100)
Napoli (-120) at Rangers (+320)
Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $9,000 – We also have the option of Robert Lewandowski in a “revenge” match with his former team Bayern Munich. However, given his $11,900 price tag, I think it is a lot to pay for his role in a match where I doubt he will be scoring as many goals as last week when Barcelona was a -1400 money line favorite. Mohammed Salah much like Liverpool has been off to an awful start this season. Their defense is truly as atrocious as it has looked. However, there should be some offensive regression coming here. I expect this to be a relatively open game and Salah has been contributing enough chances and shots that he is due to find a net a couple of times.
Robert Lewandowski – Barcelona – $21 – With the prices flipped on FanDuel and Mohammed Salah more expensive than Lewandowski, think this is where we play him. It is important to note that Barcelona are underdogs here. However, the Bayern defense has been far from perfect. Furthermore, if there was ever anyone who knew how to exploit Bayerns defense, I’d put money on this man, who spent the better part of the last decade practicing with them.
DraftKings – Evanilson/Toni Martinez -Porto – $4,700/$4,100 “low-end”, Raphinha – Barcelona- $7,600 “mid-range”, Darwin Nunez – Liverpool – $8,800 “high-end”
FanDuel – Sadio Mane – Bayern Munich – $18 “low-end”, Darwin Nunez – Liverpool – $21 “mid-range”, Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $22 “high-end”
Otavio “Questionable”/Matius Uribe – Porto – $5,200/$3,700 – Porto as mentioned at the very top of the article is the largest favorite on the slate. That said, the forwards are certainly cheap but neither is awe-inspiring. I still think they make for fine punts on this slate, as noted by their inclusion under “low-end” above. However, if healthy Otavio has the majority role on set pieces and serves as the preferred penalty taker. With a very affordable $5,200 price tag, Otavio may be the best Porto play on DraftKings if in. That said, he was badly hurt on Wednesday so may be out although has not been ruled out for the match as of the time of writing. Should he sit, Matius Uribe will likely assume his role. If that is the case we also pocket an extra $1,500 savings but either way both are underpriced.
Joshua Kimmich – Bayern Munich – $16 – This is a lot more affordable than Kimmich’s $10,000 DraftKings price. Given his role as Bayern’s primary set-piece taker along with FanDuel price, Kimmich is a cash game lock and should be very popular in all FanDuel formats.
DraftKings – Raphinha – Barcelona – $7,600 “low-end”, Piotr Zielinski – Napoli – $9,800 “mid-range”, Joshua Kimmich – Bayern Munich – $10,000 “high-end”.
FanDuel – Mateus Uribe – Porto – $15 “low-end”, Joshua Kimmich – Bayern Munich – $16 “mid-range”, Pietr Zielinski – Napoli- $20 “high-end”
Trent Alexander-Arnold – Liverpool – $6,500 – Often seen at a much higher cost on EPL slates, Liverpool’s primary set piece taker seems like a core piece on this slate. Despite Liverpool getting destroyed in MatchWeek One, TAA still managed 18.5 DraftKings points solely off of peripheral stats.
Hector Bellerin/Alejandro Balde – Barcelona – $3,800/$2,800 “low-end”, Alphonso Davies- Bayern Munich – $5,300 “mid-range”, Kostas Tsimakas – Liverpool – $6,200 “high-end”
Trent Alexander-Arnold – Liverpool – $15 – I hate to spend up on defense on FanDuel. However, it makes more sense on this slate than on most. Stars and Scrubs today seems like a losing strategy with so many question marks surrounding some of the spend ups.
Daley Blind – Ajax – $9, Denis Odoi – Club Brugge – $8
Alex Meret – Napoli – $5,500/$12 – Off to a strong start this season and playing behind a much-improved defense.
Bet – Club Brugge or Draw – Double Chance (+200/+180) Bet Rivers/DraftKings – 0.5 Units – The +1.5 is safer but at -160 on DraftKings, it lacks juice. If choosing between the two I think you pop a half unit on the double chance “maybe match it with the +1.5”. A -235 for Porto here just seems a little fishy particularly if down Otavio.
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Rich Masana is a real money daily fantasy player and sports bettor who plays DFS on DraftKings under the username “JetsFan303” and on FanDuel under the username “JetsFan3032”. Rich has been ranked as high as in the top 3% of all DFS players according to Rotogrinders.com and has lifetime profitability across all of the applicable betting sites since legalization in Colorado in 2020. Rich does not guarantee the accuracy of all advice and reserves the right to use different players on occasion as necessary to fit roster builds. You can reach him on Twitter @JFan303 or on Discord at @RichMasana
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