We return for MatchWeek Three of the EPL season.
Unlike the last two slates so far this season, we do not have any heavy favorites, at least on the DraftKings slate. As a result, we won’t feel compelled to have as much as exposure as possible to any one team as we did last week with Manchester City.
Without any expensive stars to force in aside from James Maddison “more below”, this is the sort of slate where a balanced approach seems like the best idea. The addition of the late game on FanDuel where Arsenal is a -245 money line favorite certainly adds a layer to the slate on that site.
Aston Villa (+190) at Crystal Palace (+155)
Nottingham Forest (+310) at Everton (-105)
Brentford (+190) at Fulham (+145)
Southampton (+319) at Leicester City (-120)
Arsenal (-245) at Bournemouth (+650) “FanDuel only“
Ivan Toney – Brentford – $8,400/$18 – It’s a close call here particularly on DraftKings. However, my lean is towards the scoring acumen of Ivan Toney despite the plus odds matchup. Former Burnley man Dwight McNeil would be my second choice as Everton has a better matchup facing Nottingham Forest and McNeil should grab some corners. However, he is more of a cash play given Toney’s higher goal scoring prowess. On FanDuel, the pendulum swings farther towards Toney.
DraftKings – Dwight McNeil – Everton – $7,900, DraftKings – Joe Aribo – Southampton – $4,200
FanDuel – Gabriel Jesus – Arsenal – $22, Gabriel Martinelli – Arsenal – $20 “and yes, it’s crazy they have the same first name, play for the same team as forwards”, Wilfried Zaha – Crystal Palace – $18
James Maddison – Leicester City – $10,200/$19 – Once an EPL DFS superstar, James Maddison’s stock has taken a bit of a hit over the last few years. However, as of the last six months or so, he is back in prime form and gets a tasty matchup against a defensively porous Southampton team. Maddison has regained a monopoly on Leicester City’s set pieces giving him a high DraftKings floor in particular but we get a bit of a discount on him to offset on FanDuel. He can still rack up the FanDuel points with chances created and assists “as well as the occassional shot on goal/goal”. Leicester City and Maddison should be flying high at the King Power Stadium as -120 moneyline favorites.
DraftKings – Mathias Jensen – Brentford -$5,800, DraftKings – Demarai Gray – Everton – $6,700
FanDuel – Mathias Jensen – Brentford – $14, FanDuel – Bukayo Saka – Arsenal – $19, FanDuel – Dwight McNeil – Everton – $15
Neco Williams – Nottingham Forest – $5,700 – Lucas Digne is rarely ignored when it comes to filling your lineup with high-end DraftKings defenders. However, at $6,800 he feels overpriced for his production. Particularly when we can take a shot on Neco Williams for $1,100 less. The former Liverpool youth/backup is finally getting regular playing time with Nottingham Forest and his exact role over the longterm is a mystery. However, if his last match with 22.1 floor points “no goals or assists” is any indication, perhaps a DFS star is born? He seems be taking most if not all the corners for Nottingham and setting some of the pace on offense. Nottingham Forest are underdogs once again but Everton are the least intimidating of the EPL teams they have faced to date.
Pivot: Lucas Digne – Aston Villa- $6,800, James Justin – Leicester City – $4,200
Awful position on the FanDuel slate so I think the best bet here is to punt with one of the $8 defensemen. At the moment they are the cheapest projected to start but if someone pops up in a starting lineup cheaper prior to lock, I will just slum as low as possible.
Punt Ideas: James Justin or Johnny Evans – Leicester City – $8, Ezri Konsa – Aston Villa – $8
Dean Henderson – Nottingham Forest – $4,400/$8 – He’s Dean “F’N” Henderson! This man once carried a promoted Sheffield United team to a top six finish. After a year in the lion’s den, he has once again mercifully found a way to go on loan and escape Manchester United. It must be doing wonders for him as he is off to a magnificant start saving 7/9 shots Matchweek One and 4/5 Matchweek Two including a penalty kick save. If that wasn’t enough he is very cheap. For cash games he is a must, for tournaments he will be chalky so ownership and build “like you have two Everton forwards” are the only considerations.
Pivot: Emiliano Martinez – Aston Villa – $4,500/$10
Bet One – Brentford Moneyline (+195) – Bet MGM – 0.25 Units, Bet Two – Brentford Draw No Bet (+105) – Bet MGM – 0.75 Units, Bet Three: Leicester City Moneyline (-115) – Bet MGM – 1 Unit
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Rich Masana is a real money daily fantasy player and sports bettor who plays DFS on DraftKings under the username “JetsFan303” and on FanDuel under the username “JetsFan3032”. Rich has been ranked as high as in the top 3% of all DFS players according to Rotogrinders.com and has lifetime profitability across all of the applicable betting sites since legalization in Colorado in 2020. Rich does not guarantee the accuracy of all advice and reserves the right to use different players on occasion as necessary to fit roster builds. You can reach him on Twitter @JFan303 or on Discord at @RichMasana
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