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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 1 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my TNF showdown article.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Lamar Jackson is far and away the most expensive (and highest-upside) player in this contest, but I think we’re going to need him in the MVP spot or one of the FLEX spots to cash. The Raiders defense is dealing with lots of turnover and communication/teamwork aspects of their unit could see some struggles in Week 1, especially against a playmaker like Jackson. He should be running a little more than usual with the makeshift backfield they’re employing, and all the new faces just getting into the Baltimore system.
Ravens notes: The most important players to roster will be Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, RB Ty’Son Williams (who could see an enormous Week 1 workload) and WR Marquise Brown, but we could see some of the newly acquired veterans (Latavius Murray and Sammy Watkins stand out the most) or fringe offensive players like Devin Duvernay — or even rookie Tylan Wallace — play a role. I’m also very intersted in the Ravens DST and K Justin Tucker, since this one could be lower-scoring than if both these offenses ere at full strength.
Raiders notes: Josh Jacobs is questionable to play tonight, and the best possible offensive combo for the Raiders is likely Derek Carr/Darren Waller, with Waller being the best one-off if we overstack Ravens. We’re not getting enough of a discount on Kenyan Drake to focus too much on him, but he’s a GPP play given his ability to haul in reception and rack up the points that way — especially if Jacobs is unavailable. It’s interesting to see the less heralded WR Bryan Edwards with a salary higher than WR Henry Ruggs III, who is another possible playmaker. We also have to consider Hunter Renfrow and Willie Snead IV, but these WRS are all pretty risky plays.
Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Use too many Raiders. I could see 3 BAL/3 LV working, but most of my builds will be 4 BAL/2 LV.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Ignore kickers and defenses. Both Tucker and the Ravens DST are in play, and Daniel Carlson could factor as well tonight.
Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!
I'm a writer from upstate NY in a cool little Hudson River town called Coxsackie. Too many interests to list, but the films of David Lynch, the books of Kurt Vonnegut, the music of Jack White and the maddening sport of golf are near the top of my list. Big into DFS, specializing in baseball, football, golf and hoops. I've written for FFToday.com, RotoExperts and Baseball America, to name a few.
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