We are back with another nine game slate in the association tonight, and where would we be without Ghost and the model? Three of the top six last night were Kent Bazemore, Juan Toscano-Anderson and Tyrese Maxey. We talked about those three on the stream and these three cost a combined $10,000. They scored a massive 83.2 DK points, good for an 8x return. The studs were tougher last night, but in the long run nailing that style of value will carry you to the promised land a lot of nights. Let’s get to this big slate and figure out the base work for it in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/5 to find the green!
Bulls – Otto Porter (O)
Magic – Aaron Gordon (O)
Raptors – OG Anunoby (O)
Cavaliers – Collin Sexton (Q), Larry Nance (O)
Hornets – Terry Rozier (Q), P.J. Washington (O)
Heat – Goran Dragic (Q)
Wolves – KAT (O), D’Angelo Russell (Q), Naz Reid (Q)
Thunder – SGA, Lu Dort, George Hill (O)
Suns – Jae Crowder (Q)
Celtics – Jaylen Brown (Q), Payton Pritchard (Q), Marcus Smart (O)
Clippers – Patrick Beverly (O)
Malcom Brogdon ($8,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – It’s hard not to love Brogdon here. He’s got a 28.1% usage rate and a 1.14 FPPM on the season, and gets a major pace-up spot with the fast running Pelicans. Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe can’t defend him, and the Pelicans are 22nd in turnovers per game. Brogdon is eighth in steals per game which isn’t something we want to totally lean on, but it doesn’t hurt either. Considering he’s been a little quiet lately, the price has come down to a very appealing point. This doesn’t look like a position to spend on, so Brogdon carries a lot of safety and upside mixed in.
Kemba Walker ($6,500 DK/$5,700 FD) – Kemba could be very popular on FD, where he’s under $6,000. Here’s what is interesting – IF Jaylen Brown is out, Walker could be a massive bargain. Across the 43 minutes he’s played without Brown on the floor, Kemba has a 43.6% usage rate and a 1.53 FPPM. Taking Smart off the floor leaves Kemba with a 33 minute sample and a 1.68 FPPM. Even if Brown plays, Kemba is back up to 30 minutes a night and should see mostly Reggie Jackson defense. That’s a win for Kemba, especially if Jayson Tatum is facing Kawhi Leonard.
Theo Maledon ($5,000 DK/$4,800 FD) – Maledon will likely be one of the chalkiest plays on this slate after last time out. Not only are the Thunder still down players, Maledon played well with 28 DK across 35 minutes. That was with going 2-12 from the field, and now he gets a pace up spot against the Wolves and their eighth-fastest pace. Minnesota matches that with the 24th defensive rating, a perfect mix to pour in some points. Maledon has over 200 minutes without the players OKC is missing tonight, and rocks a 0.82 FPPM with just a 46.7% true shooting rate. Plug and play in cash.
Honorable Mention – Kyle Lowry, Cole Anthony
Donovan Mitchell ($7,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – This is a weird position tonight. James Harden and Bradley Beal are super pricey, while Fred VanVleet is priced up from the last game out. Mitchell is under $8,000 on both sites and is a safe, if not exactly spectacular option. The Hornets are giving up the third-highest three point frequency in the NBA, a nice boost for Mitchell. He’s over a 30% usage rate and even though he’s not high on my radar, he’s there nonetheless.
Norman Powell ($6,700 DK/$6,400 FD) – When we get a team as bad defensively as Brooklyn, we want some type of exposure to it. Powell is a lot cheaper than FVV, and he’s going to play a bunch of minutes. He only played 29 last game in a lopsided effort. Before that, Powell played 41, 10, 37 and 32 minutes. He has a very solid 21.1% usage rate and a 0.88 FPPM and with the Nets breakneck pace, he can rack up a ton of peripheral stats here. He’s not my absolute favorite Raptor, but he’s a great fit on FD especially.
Hamidou Diallo ($5,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – I’m tempted to just write DialloSZN and move on, but we’ll give it more than that. He managed to score almost 32 DK points on just 5-9 from the field, racking up nine boards and three steals. He also had six turnovers, so there is meat on the bone at this price. Diallo played 33 minutes and the matchup is better defensively tonight too. Houston is playing great defense since trading Harden, while the Wolves wouldn’t know defense if someone hit them in the face with a picket fence. He’s far too cheap for his 1.20 FPPM in the Thunder’s situation tonight.
Honorable Mention – Zach LaVine, Paul George, Anthony Edwards
Pascal Siakam ($7,600 DK/$8,900 FD) – Now we’ve hit my favorite Raptor, at least on DK. The FD price is a bit high for my taste and I would rather just play Powell. Siakam isn’t a major player in the paint, with about five paint touches per game. He’s been tough to figure out this year but the Nets are just getting abused in the interior. I fully expect Siakam to make advantage of that and he’s scoring about 3.6 points in the paint this year. He also carries a 15.2% frequency in post ups, and the Nets are the third-worst team in points per possession on that play type. Given the pace and extra opportunity, Siakam checks in as an excellent play tonight.
Jimmy Butler ($8,300 DK/$8,500 FD) – Buckets was fine last time out against Washington, if not a bit disappointing. He also took just 11 shots and still racked up 44 DK on just 19 real points. That’s a great sign, as is the 37 minutes. The other factor is the Heat need to start banking wins. They’ve had their Covid and injury issues, but they have a long road ahead to get back into the top half of the East. Butler leads the team with a 1.28 FPPM and given Washington’s pace and poor defense, he’s still a very nice fit around some of the OKC value plays.
Rui Hachimura ($5,400 DK/$5,000 FD) – Hachi is really mis-priced on FD and he’s playing a boatload of minutes lately. We’re upwards of 32 the past two games and he’s hit over 25 FD points in each game. Nothing is going to especially standout with a 19.5% usage rate and a 0.88 FPPM, but we don’t need it to at these prices. He’s back to double-digit shot attempts the past two games as well and is too cheap tonight.
Honorable Mention – Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward
Domantas Sabonis ($8,600 DK/$8,800 FD) – Did both sites just agree to not raise up Sabonis in salary? He’s rolled up 54 FD points or more the past two games but he’s still under $9,000 on both sites. Zion Williamson has been awful defensively this season. As in, he actually got pulled off the floor on defense in a close game awful. New Orleans is 24th in paint points allowed and Sabonis is fifth in pain touches per game. This is a blow up spot for Sabonis and he only played 31 minutes last game. If he gets his full run, he’s going to destroy Zion, Steven Adams and whoever else is standing in his way.
This position is terrible tonight in my eyes. Look, surely you can play Giannis Antetokounmpo against the Cavs. We’re starting to see more consistent high-end games from Greek with 53 FD or more in five of his last six. I’d likely pass on Tatum with Kawhi on the other side, and Bam is pricey with the Heat healthy. I think the chalk on FD is Sabonis and Darius Bazley, so we could be looking at three Thunder in Maledon and Diallo as well. I don’t see the need to go four tonight, so limit yourself to three even though there is three write-ups plus Bazley. I will update this section in Discord if/when value opens up.
Nikola Vucevic ($8,500 DK/$8,800 FD) – An underpriced Vuc in a smash spot? I guess you can twist my arm to play him. Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace in the league and Vuc continues to be well under $9,000. That’s despite his 32% usage rate, his 45 and 51 DK points the past two games and the fact he shot a combined 14-37 in those games. The Bulls are in the bottom 12 in rebounding and 16th in paint points. More important is the fact they don’t have the bodies to defend Vuc all over the floor. I’d be surprised if he’s not chalky in cash again. Center is a relatively weak position tonight on top of things.
Al Horford ($6,100 DK/$6,300 FD) – He’s not the biggest paint player in the league, but this is a mismatch down low for Horford. Even if Naz Reid plays, there’s no reason to shy away here. He’s at a 1.05 FPPM and Minnesota is 18th in rebounds and 17th in paint points allowed. Houston was a much more difficult matchup for Horford with Christian Wood on the other side, so I’m not sweating the mediocre return from last game. Horford is a good threat for a double-double tonight and his price is very reasonable. We don’t really need him on FD in my eyes. I’d rank Maledon, Bazley and Diallo ahead of him.
Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert (very cheap on DK), Deandre Ayton
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